Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright;
The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,
And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;
But there is no joy in Chicago -- mighty Jacque has struck out. Again.
(with many apologies to Ernest Lawrence Thayer)
| Today's Starting Pitchers | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
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These stats probably don't matter given the current state of the team, but Juan Pierre is 12-for-25 vs. Williams, with a walk, no strikeouts, a double and two triples. Michael Barrett is 6-for-10 with two doubles and a triple, and Neifi is 15-for-43 (.349) with three doubles, a HR and 7 RBI.
Here's a stat that will astound you: the Cubs have not had a multiple-run inning in 77 innings. This is the third-longest such streak since 1916. 86 innings from May 17-28, 1961 and 90 innings from Sept. 3-12, 1963 are the only longer ones. I'd love for that streak to end in the first inning today.
Time for a breakout game. Seriously.
Discuss amongst yourselves.
0 recs | 209 comments
Well...
Ten Bucks says the Cubs get shut-out again...Well, 2007 could look good!
KChiCubs - May 7, 2006
not.cool.
n/tSarah Hope - May 7, 2006
the best part of this season
is knowing afterwards we will (probably) have to find a lead off hitter again, and we get to see Jones for 2 more years!! So excited, time to start planning for 09.mike bornemann @ Bleed Cubbie Blue - May 7, 2006
10 dollars says that:
Hendry eats his contract and DFA's Jones by the end of 07cubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
i really hope so
but it would suprise me.mike bornemann @ Bleed Cubbie Blue - May 7, 2006
Or
Trades him for another big contract that is in it's last year and would be less than paying Jones for 3 yrs.Will23 - May 7, 2006
Might as well
start making those improvements now!BringBackRyno - May 7, 2006
Depressed, disgusted, discouraged
That about covers it for me today. Oh, and my mother is here "cleaning" my house. Oh happy day.cubbiejulie - May 7, 2006
Re
Send her over here when she's done with yours.Jed Taylor - May 7, 2006
Or
bewitched, bothered, and bewildered. That fits..San Diego Smooth Jazz Man - May 7, 2006
Ah
one of my favorites. . .cubbiejulie - May 7, 2006
Or
flustered, flummoxed, and flamboozled. Taking alliterative liberties, I know.teacher tom - May 7, 2006
Almost makes me happy that it's finals week...
That means I have something to do to take my mind off of....this. Whatever it is that you want to call what they are doing out there.couldn't help but think of a certain scene in Bull Durham.
Skip: You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!
Larry: Lollygaggers!
mike @ Bleed Cubbie Blue - May 7, 2006
A very good friend of mine
used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.cubbiejulie - May 7, 2006
You know Kevin Costner?!
See if he knows Mia Hamm...Sarah Hope - May 7, 2006
me and Kev
go way back. Back to when he was still hot. LOLcubbiejulie - May 7, 2006
Kev was hot?
When?cubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
Kev got not-hot?
When?Sarah Hope - May 7, 2006
When he dabbled around with a musical career in 97
cubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
I think
I blocked that out. Along with HEARTBEAT!!! I'm lookin' for a heeeeaaaarrtbeeeeeaaatt!!!!!Sarah Hope - May 7, 2006
I'm looking for some aspirin now Blah
cubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
When
his hair all fell out and he started exposing himself to masseuses at Scottish golf resorts.I'll admit, he looks great as recently as "The Upside of Anger"
cubbiejulie - May 7, 2006
Ok, I seriously
regret cancelling my Enquirer subscription...How did I miss all of this?
Sarah Hope - May 7, 2006
My wife loves that movie,
maybe Kevin Costner or Tim Robbins has something to do with it.teacher tom - May 7, 2006
Do we have a lineup yet?
n/tcubbiejulie - May 7, 2006
Dusty has refused to set a lineup due to futility
cubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
Lineups
1- Pierre CF2- Cedeno SS
3- Walker 1B
4- Barrett C
5- A-Ram 3b
6- Murton LF
7- Jones RF
8- JHJ 2b
9- Pitcher
cubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
Arguably...
...as good as it gets with what Dusty has. At least Bynum is nowhere to be seen.Chadnudj - May 7, 2006
Grrrr
JHJ again. Arg.cubbiejulie - May 7, 2006
Re
Finally Barrett hitting 4th. But Neifi! should be playing 2nd. Other than that, Baker needs to lock this lineup down, quit moving people around every day like Lego blocks, and platoon JJ. These are all things Baker could do to give his team a better chance at finding stability and turning it around.BTW - I wonder if Barrett insisted on playing today, since it's a day game after a nite. I hope so, because that's the kind of suck-it-up leadership this team needs right now.
Jed Taylor - May 7, 2006
Re: Here's a stat that will astound you
Al, I assume these are Cubs records, or do you mean MLB generally?greencubsman - May 7, 2006
Those are Cubs club records.
n/tAl Yellon - May 7, 2006
Does anyone think that?
Tinkering with the lineups is having any negative effect on the offensive players?I mean one moment you are hitting 4th and the next you're htting 7th.. Do you think players would have a tendency to press a bit and then swing at balls they would have normally taken?
cubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
Go Guzzie!
And GO OFFENSE!sparkles721 - May 7, 2006
I would like to see a stable lineup
but they need a stable team first. I like this lineup better than yesterday's but once again I find myself longing for Neifi. God help me.teacher tom - May 7, 2006
I did the same thing last night...
I was like "Hairston??? Bleck!! Where's Neifi?"In unrelated news, I was instantly struck by alightning bolt.
Sarah Hope - May 7, 2006
Hairston > Neifi > Theriot> Ojeda
A logical progression.. boy its gotten ugly at 2b in Chicagocubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
How can...
Dusty not play him? Last year he had the worst excuses to play him, and now that he has good ones like Neifi hits this pitcher well and Hairston is doing bad he doesn't? Take advantage while you can Dusty!sparkles721 - May 7, 2006
a quick 1-2-3
boy i missed the Cubs top of the first... it lasted 3 minutescubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
it's nice to see
the cubs really make Williams work.DanP - May 7, 2006
How is our dear Woody doing?
Did he already finish his start?sparkles721 - May 7, 2006
Nope
tonight @ 730cubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
Nevermind...
He doesn't start until 6:30.sparkles721 - May 7, 2006
Roberts gets on
steals secondcubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
BAH
HIT THE CUTOFF MAN JJcubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
Nice throw, Rallykiller
ntgjdow - May 7, 2006
Looking bad already...
2nd and 3rd with no outs...let's see how Guzman handles this.Perkins - May 7, 2006
Okay thats it .. no more..
cubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
Game over
I'd like someone to run DNA tests to prove Jacque Jones isn't Sammy Sosa's less talented little brother.grifdog - May 7, 2006
Good God
Way to keep that runner from advancing. Can anybody say, "Uninspired"?gjdow - May 7, 2006
Was Barrett
always this bad defensively? Seems like he's regressed.Perkins - May 7, 2006
Pass Ball..
ugly just plain uglycubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
This is embarassing
Guzman is terrible. Let's package him and Hill and get whatever we can for them. Throw in Jones for a case of beer.cubbiejulie - May 7, 2006
I am all for it
.ntcubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
rocked right off of the wall..
wow.. laser beamcubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
game over
cubs can't score two.gaius marius - May 7, 2006
Wanna bet they can score 2?
sparkles721 - May 7, 2006
Thank God you're here
n/tPerkins - May 7, 2006
How many games do we give them?
WGNstatic - May 7, 2006
I love it when Gaius is wrong...
... TWO RUNS! WOO HOO!Al Yellon - May 7, 2006
It's a shame...
we didn't bet something.sparkles721 - May 7, 2006
This Game's Over ...
Produce three runs? Surely, you jest!08Cubs - May 7, 2006
We need...
Kobe Bryant to come play and inspire a late comeback!Wait...
grifdog - May 7, 2006
We Need
half of a pitcher who can throw strikes that are not right down the middle up in the zonecubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
Ron already sounds pained
If for nothing else, win it for him...we're past due for an offensive explosion.Perkins - May 7, 2006
Hey now
Ramirez with a base hit..lets GOcubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
Ramirez
ARam's been drilling a lot of balls the past few days, and they're starting to fall for hits. I think he's about out of his slump.gjdow - May 7, 2006
Murton goes Biggio and takes 1st..
1st and 2nd 1 out.. lets go JJcubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
Come on Cubs
You're killing RonnieCosmicCharlie911 - May 7, 2006
Come-on Jacques
let's do somethingphatass - May 7, 2006
I predict a 3 run HR
just 'cause...we really need it...this has been a dark week.Perkins - May 7, 2006
THE WORLD JUST ENDED
Rallykiller with an RBI base hit? I am speechless.gjdow - May 7, 2006
Hey now
And before Jones's at bat, I was going to say the Cubs should pay him for his services this year in Golden SombrerosCosmicCharlie911 - May 7, 2006
Finally!
phatass - May 7, 2006
Like no way..
that was a run! wow.. its been a long time since someone has gotten a base hit w/RISPcubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
A run!
I might faint.Al Yellon - May 7, 2006
2 runs
In 2 games, stop the presses!!akcubfan - May 7, 2006
base hit for JJ
Now let's get some more. Only one out.Perkins - May 7, 2006
nads
JHJ's up.Perkins - May 7, 2006
JHK
is upcubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
Maybe Hairston can do something.
phatass - May 7, 2006
Maybe
the pigs in Cincinatti will flycubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
People in Cincy better duck!
No prob, Guzman is the best player on the field for SD today.grifdog - May 7, 2006
Hariston too?
Did Baker sprinkle holy water on these guys?gjdow - May 7, 2006
What are all those guys doing on base?
This can't be the Cubs.Al Yellon - May 7, 2006
I dont know but I think they are clogging the base
cubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
Woody Williams....
Must feel terrible. This team got shot out by Chan Ho park after allCosmicCharlie911 - May 7, 2006
Hairston singles
But no RBI...bases loaded, one out.Perkins - May 7, 2006
I spoke too soon
CosmicCharlie911 - May 7, 2006
Loaded with one out!
Comeon, Guzman! No DP.phatass - May 7, 2006
No!
phatass - May 7, 2006
Terrible
Guzman GIDP on the first pitch...just...at least strike out...Perkins - May 7, 2006
Ron...
was just talking with Pat how you will never see everything in baseball, and then he ends the inning by saying, 'Oh, I've seen it all!'sparkles721 - May 7, 2006
Intentional Strikeout
I've never understood why there isn't an "intentional strikeout". Just keep the bat on your shoulder -- if you get really lucky, you may walk. If not, do no harm.Yeesh.
08Cubs - May 7, 2006
What just happened?
was that just a 1-2-3 inning? amazing... Trade this guy please.. he is all bark no bitecubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
1-2-3
Much better inning for GuzPerkins - May 7, 2006
Cedeno ..
TAKE A PITCHcubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
he can't
gaius marius - May 7, 2006
second 1-2-3 for Guzman
Now, offense...go!Perkins - May 7, 2006
A-Ram
2-2 hr single.. tie gamecubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
ARam
Is now officially out of his slump.phatass - May 7, 2006
Aramis homers!
cue NBA Jam announcer..."He's heating up!"Perkins - May 7, 2006
NBA Jam
great gameDanP - May 7, 2006
boomshakalaka
n/takcubfan - May 7, 2006
Let's hope Murton doesn't
have to get hit again to get on basephatass - May 7, 2006
Murton
tap single.. 1 out runner oncubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
Orange Guy!
phatass - May 7, 2006
Here we go!
phatass - May 7, 2006
I better go get my eyes checked
Jones walkedDanP - May 7, 2006
JJ walks
Hmm, keep going.Perkins - May 7, 2006
JJ clogs 1st
with a walk Murton thrown out at second but called safecubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
JHJ
base hit..3-2 Cubscubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
WOW
a lead!gaius marius - May 7, 2006
RBI single for Jerry!
Cubs lead, 3-2!Perkins - May 7, 2006
Yes!
Now, Guzman, sit down and be patient.phatass - May 7, 2006
We have scored multiple runs in an inning.
Routine Pop Fly - May 7, 2006
Nice play all around
Not only was that a good bunt, but I appreciate Guzman's attempt to keep the play alive as long as possible.gjdow - May 7, 2006
Perfect.
phatass - May 7, 2006
(hungry, deep voice)
More runs!Perkins - May 7, 2006
Damn!
Pierre whiffs...but it's okay...we do have the lead, and the bats seem to be waking up today.Perkins - May 7, 2006
wild pitch
Settle down and throw strikes!Perkins - May 7, 2006
STOP GIVING AWAY BASES
passed balls, wild pitches, sheesh!CubFaninNY - May 7, 2006
well it was nice while it lasted..
cubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
Greene doubles
score tied, 3-3.Perkins - May 7, 2006
Hairston just
Earned his pay for the day.phatass - May 7, 2006
phew
Guzman escapes a jam...score still tied.Perkins - May 7, 2006
lol
cedeno's just a remarkable hitter...gaius marius - May 7, 2006
oh yeah
lets just forget he went 3-5 yesterdayyou want to take that game away from his stats too?
ksucubbie - May 7, 2006
what's hos obp since april 10?
.298, i think. GREAT. hall of fame, really.gaius marius - May 7, 2006
or the fact
that going into todays game he led our team in BA at .320ksucubbie - May 7, 2006
it was an ugly AB
but if he gets 1 hit every 3 attempts and looks like that every other one .. i'll take itcubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
he's
a freakin rookie! let the kid learnwhat we are seeing is just raw talent to hit how he has- once he learns how to bat by experiance things will get better
ksucubbie - May 7, 2006
Swinging at a ball over your head is a
Little League thing to do.. Not to be done in the ML'scubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
oh please
every player will look bad from time to time trying to hit a high fastballit happens lets not make any all encompassing indictments about him because of it
ksucubbie - May 7, 2006
He has done it..
he did it two or three times against the Diamondbacks too.. if this were just an isolated incident I wouldn't have made the comment.. but it has happened more often than I would like..cubsfan2883 - May 7, 2006
it's getting silly, ksu
gaius marius - May 7, 2006
Base Hit Cedeno
Where's the outrage?Pa - May 7, 2006
it was
one of the worst swings i have ever seen. reminded me of burnitz getting turned completely around.mike bornemann @ Bleed Cubbie Blue - May 7, 2006
yea you nitpicking knuckleheads
DanP - May 7, 2006
when does shark week start?
mike bornemann @ Bleed Cubbie Blue - May 7, 2006
not soon enough
gaius marius - May 7, 2006
This game...
... might have been manageable if Rusch (who throws better out of the bullpen) had been in there instead of Novoa.Novoa -- back to Iowa with you!
Al Yellon - May 7, 2006
control problems
I still have a hard time thinking they go away jsut because your in the bullpen. Has he made a bullpen appearance yet? Been missing some games lately.mike bornemann @ Bleed Cubbie Blue - May 7, 2006
nevermind
just saw he had a good two innings in arizona.mike bornemann @ Bleed Cubbie Blue - May 7, 2006
great
we can bring back aardsma!!gaius marius - May 7, 2006
Well...
... how much worse could it get?Al Yellon - May 7, 2006
it can't
welcome to the 90 loss conumdrum.gaius marius - May 7, 2006
sorry
"conundrum" :)gaius marius - May 7, 2006
do we specialize in this?
hard throwing hurlers who can't find the plate?CubFaninNY - May 7, 2006
farnsworth
looked good today, speaking of wasted talent unharnassed by a bismall coaching staff.mike bornemann @ Bleed Cubbie Blue - May 7, 2006
this really is a great bullpen, hey?
much improved, i'd say. best in the nl, i'd say.gaius marius - May 7, 2006
Ugh.
Novoa is horrid.Al Yellon - May 7, 2006
what does Larry say to these bums?
he's clueless too.CubFaninNY - May 7, 2006
comforting
my alternative is the mariners. side step at best.mike bornemann @ Bleed Cubbie Blue - May 7, 2006
lmmfao
dusty just turned to rothschild in the dugout and said -- very clearly via lipsynch -- "what do we do?"rotflmao!
gaius marius - May 7, 2006
answer
"call up theriot and ryu and play for 2007."gaius marius - May 7, 2006
Theriot...
... why? He's not going to be a major league regular.Ryu -- OK, I'll buy that. Get rid of Novoa, bring Ryu up.
Al Yellon - May 7, 2006
i'm not sure about that
and what do you have to lose? this team's finished. find out what's in the cupboard.gaius marius - May 7, 2006
fwiw
if theriot can't be a major leaguer, there's no hope what-so-ever for cedeno.it may be so for both, but let's find out.
gaius marius - May 7, 2006
Oh, sure...
... NOW he brings Rusch in.Al Yellon - May 7, 2006
Novoa
is in the bigs why? Wasn't he this bad last year? I seem to remember a lot of hard throwing, but not much pitching.Perkins - May 7, 2006
this is the problem
the whole organization is short of effective pitching. the bullpen isn't deep enough -- hasn't been all along. it's why they'll be average in most every metric in the end.howry and eyre were a great start -- but only a start. job half done, cruller jim.
gaius marius - May 7, 2006
no this
is sillyLeague average for SS is .266 Ronny is .320
and he cant hit?
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/story/2006/5/7/51549/71028
or you in this thread- and then not defending your view
thats silly
ksucubbie - May 7, 2006
good luck with this
i hope you're right in two months.but you won't be.
gaius marius - May 7, 2006
Dusty's a buffoon!
When has Novoa been good with RISP?CubFaninNY - May 7, 2006
The answer is not only "NEVER"...
... but look at these splits (Career totals):with RISP: 11.57 1.76 .286 (ERA, WHIP, Opp BA)
with RISP & 2 out: 23.82 2.12 .286 (ERA, WHIP, Opp BA)
Do these guys even READ stat sheets?
Al Yellon - May 7, 2006
Not Dusty's
style. He prefers to go with his gut feelings...BringBackRyno - May 7, 2006
who would have thought
that Rusch would be a savior?JFCubFan - May 7, 2006
why is he allowed to do that?
how many stupid decisions is he allowed before he gets canned?CubFaninNY - May 7, 2006
Wasting pitchers again
let Rusch hit, we can't afford giving up more runs!CubFaninNY - May 7, 2006
Bynum = Lenny Harris of 2003
He's the #1 PH now?CubFaninNY - May 7, 2006
Mabry
is the top pinch hitter--Dusty tends to use Bynum earlier in the game, in non-pressure situations.However, pinch-hitting Bynum for Rusch (or for anybody, really) seems pointless. Bynum was a joke from day 1.
Short4Fanatic - May 7, 2006
Meanwhile Koronka
is 3-1 with a 3.55 ERABringBackRyno - May 7, 2006
I think I'd rather have Lenny Harris than Bynum...
... right now.Al Yellon - May 7, 2006
outhitting the opponent, yet losing big
today it's the walks, what will it be tomorrow?7 free passes given up, one taken, ridiculous!
CubFaninNY - May 7, 2006
here's a perfect example
of dusty's incompetence.ohman has a .188 baa against lefties. why does he have a 9.20 era?
because he's faced almost as many righthanders as lefthanders.
can we send dustbag to the scrapheap yet?
gaius marius - May 7, 2006
That doesn't tell the whole story
Ohman has been used late in a bunch of games that were already out of hand, when the cubs had already used several pitchers and needed somebody to get them through another inning. That's probably when he faced a bunch of the right-handed hitters.Short4Fanatic - May 7, 2006
Nice job on the run down...
VS - May 7, 2006
Dusty has few options
The bullpen is spent. Ohman was available. At this point it doesnt matter. The Cubs are done. Bankrupt!MOE - May 7, 2006
This team is actually worse than last years!!
Wow!MOE - May 7, 2006
You Just Knew
The pitching would break down the day we get three runs. The note upthread about Dusty asking Rothschild "What do we do now?" was just priceless.Anybody know how to clone Pujols?
08Cubs - May 7, 2006
Insulting!
They are straight up telling the cubs they don't even their closer for this weaak squad! I feel sick......TheRamZamDLEE - May 7, 2006
Cubs oblige them
JJones 1st pitch swinging. Stupid.CubFaninNY - May 7, 2006
without as much as a whimper
what a clueless managerwhat a hopeless team.
CubFaninNY - May 7, 2006
I can't even say
that I really care anymore.Wow. That sucks. I can't believe I just said that. But it's true.
elscorcho0682 - May 7, 2006
they're done for this year
but there's a lot to be hopeful about for 2007, at least.keeping playing the kids -- even cedeno.
gaius marius - May 7, 2006
I beg to differ...
... on your assertion that they are "done" this year... for further info please check out cubbiejulie's diary on the 2003 Marlins, who were 19-29 at a later point in May than where we sit right now, and had lost key players to injury, etc.Yet another example of how your assertion that teams 5+ games out in early May are "done" is just plain wrong.
Al Yellon - May 8, 2006
great
meteors also occasionally hit the earth and wipe out most of the life on the planet.should we expect it to happen this year? ;)
you can deny it if you like, sir, but you clearly haven't cared to take the evidence about what going five back at this juncture means in terms of probability.
gaius marius - May 8, 2006
I just don't understand...
... why you won't look at real-life examples, of which not only I, but several others, have quoted here...You bend statistics to fit your own views, and I suppose we do too... so why are we wrong and you are right?
The answer is that we're not, and neither are you.
Yet. It is too early.
Al Yellon - May 8, 2006
lol
do you really think i haven't?i'm always amazed at the total lack of education most people have in probability. it's no wonder people play slot machines.
i HAVE looked at the exceptions to the rule, al -- ad nauseum. but they are EXCEPTIONS -- as in uncommon, rare or unexpected.
if you're relying on cub exceptionalism, bully for you -- but prepare for disappointment yet again.
gaius marius - May 8, 2006
Wasn't it you...
...that said in a previous diary that NO NL team since 1995 went on to win their division after trailing by 5 games during the season?OK, a casual check reveals these teams that did EXACTLY that.
Braves 2005
Braves 2004
Cubs 2003
Cardinals 2002
Astros 2001
Cardinals 2001
All within the past five years.
I'm sure there are more, but that is what I came up with in a quick check.
How can we take you seriously when you make such sweeping statements and then back it up with false, if not purposely distorted information?
jazzman56 - May 8, 2006
To put it another way...
...from 2001-2005, they were 16 NL Division to be won (16 instead of 15 because in 2001 the Cardinals and the Astros tied). At least 6 of those were won by teams that came from 5 or more back.That is 37.5% or more. Those are not exceptions, they are a TREND.
jazzman56 - May 8, 2006
in other words
10 of 16 never fell back by more than five.that's in approximate keeping with what i'm saying -- falling five out cuts your chances of success in the end by somewhat more than half.
gaius marius - May 8, 2006
It's not in keeping with...
...what you have said at all.You have used terms like "odds are so remote now that they barely register", "phenomenally rare", "occurs once in a half century", to describe a team's chances when they trail by a good amount in May.
A casual check of recent history proves it is not so! So, why don't you just concede the point so we can move on to more interesting stuff?
I'd hate to see you hurt yourself back-peddling that fast.
jazzman56 - May 8, 2006
again
attention to detail, please, if you continue to engage the argument.going down five on may 3 is clearly and factually very devastating, moreso than going down five at any point.
it does seem that the tendency in the data suggests (though i haven't yet quantified it) that going down five early is much worse than going down five later in the year -- which makes rational sense as well, if one considers that going out five late means having to have been competitive up until that point.
gaius marius - May 8, 2006
even so
without taking into account another degree of freedom in the date, having one's playoff chances halved is a very big blow. consider that any team's chances are broadly 1 in 4 -- going back five would then cut them then to 1 in 8 or 9, which is 11 or 12 playoff appearances in a century.that is, i might note, the approximate cubs rate of success since 1933.
and going back on in early may seems to indicate a yet greater attrition -- to something like a 4% success rate, or halved again.
gaius marius - May 8, 2006
not so
...even a causal perusal of the historical standings shows that it is not at all unusual for a team to surge and recede many times during a season.It is easy to find a number of teams that fell behind early, then caught up, then fell behind again and then caught up again. Sometimes they go on to win the division and sometimes they fall short. But, there is no getting away from the fact that they stayed in the race and had a chance to win in Septemnber. And that is what teams strive for.
This completely goes against your theory that falling behind early is a death blow.
Furthermore, it is extrmely common for a team to pick up three games or more in the course of a week or two, literally at any point during the season.
This fact alone puts to bed the theory that an early five game deficit is somehow a death sentence. In reality, it is a small speed bump.
jazzman56 - May 8, 2006
Re
Common sense tells us that it is not extremely common for a team to pick up three games in the standings in the course of a week or two. I'll bet you that for every team you find that's done it, I can find 20+ that, during the same time period you choose, didn't. That means it happens less than 5% of the time. If you think 5% is "extremely common", it's no wonder probability is a concept lost on many here at BCB.First, a team has to go on a winning streak. Then, the division leader has to lose (or, more correctly, not win) at a rate that's greater than the other team's winning streak of 3 or more games out of, say 12 to be generous (since there's huge difference between the end points of your range). To get the probability, you'd multiply the likelihood of these two events together.
The first event is far more likely than the second, because you get to choose from every team not in first place having a winning streak. The second event, however, is far less likely because it's just one team and any team good enough to be leading the division isn't going to have many losing streaks during the season.
Finally, you get to cherry-pick the time frame. Let me do the same and I'll find week after week after week when no division leader lost 3 games to any other team in its division. Shouldn't all these failure be included in the overall probability? Of course they should.
In his exhuberance to make it clear that the probability of coming back from 5 games down to win the division is pretty low, Gauis may have used adjectives that overstate the case. But he's absolutely correct that the probability is low, lower than, say, drawing to an inside straight after the flop in HE. Does it happen? Sure. Should you bet on it? Not without great pot odds. And the pot odds for the Cubs are horrid right now.
The math is really pretty simple. How many teams each year are 5 games or more out of the division lead on, say, June 1st? How many of those teams come back to win their division? Divide the two. Repeat for each year, then average your results. If it's greater than 10%, I'll push a peanut down Clark Street with my nose.
If you (the general you) want to hang you hat on a 1-in-10 shot, got for it. I'm rooting for the Cubs to be the 1-in-10 exception, but my money's firmly in my pocket on them doing so.
Jed Taylor - May 9, 2006
We can add...
...the 2005 San Diego Padres to the list. Now we are up to 7/16 or 44%.jazzman56 - May 8, 2006
as of may 3
again, sir, you can't seem to keep the details straight. you're so interested in affirming your bias that you can't bring yourself to think with a clear head.what i said is that of the 50 teams five or more back on may 3 since 1995 none won the division.
it's not the information that's wrong. it's your inability to set your prejudice aside and focus on detail.
fwiw, as i pour more work into this, it seems to me that somewhat less than half of playoff clubs fall afoul of the five game rule. in other words, going five back cuts your chances in half.
that's devastating when you consider that the chances of going to the playoffs in baseball are slight anyway.
moreover, though i haven't quantified it yet, the tendency of the data seems to indicate -- counterintuitively, perhaps -- that the earlier a team gets five back, the worse for them it is. this would help explain why the success rate from may 3 -- just a month in -- is so small.
and that makes sense. a team that can hang in until july without falling out is a more competitive club with a greater chance of reconciliation. teams that go five back after just a month usually have deeper issues that will send them 20 back or more.
gaius marius - May 8, 2006
But, your original post...
...said at any time during the season. You are the one that can't keep it straight. All but one of the teams on this last trailed by 5 or more AFTER May 3rd, so what is the logic behind choosing that as the cutoff date? It proves nothing and has no value whatsoever.jazzman56 - May 8, 2006
yeah
you actually have to keep up with the conversation when talking with me. :)to review for you:
i studied may 3 as a specific subset of the general case.
i studied the cubs as a subset of the general case.
now i've studied houston as a subset of the general case.
and what have we learned so far?
-- that going down five at any point apparently cuts a team's playoff chances by slightly more than half;
-- that going down five early may be quite a bit worse than going down five later, which would account for the much more devastating attrition rate for may 3 than overall.
gaius marius - May 8, 2006
And just so nobody...
...is deceived by your frantic back-peddling, I'll point out that the Padres trailed by 5 games on April 28th last year. And hmmm...they went on to win their division.I'm sure a lot of their fans thought at the begionning of May 2005 that the Padres had issues that would prevent them from winning the division, yet somehow they did. Just last year.
jazzman56 - May 8, 2006
And on May 3rd last year...
the Padres were 4.5 GB. but 5 out in the loss column.So we don't have to look any further than 2005 for an example that disproves your "once every half-century" argument.
jazzman56 - May 8, 2006
tell you what
if you want to look smart, why not prove your case with large numbers -- instead of cherry-picking refutations, actually apply the thought and do the work of examining large numbers of cases to determine probabilities.once again -- i have no trouble conceding that there are exceptions to the rule. we're talking about probability, after all. but the rule is the rule nonetheless.
and please -- don't mischaracterize my arguments by taking words out of context. it makes you sound like maury povich.
gaius marius - May 8, 2006
If you are...
...disowning your previous posts, then that is up to you. It has nothing to do with me (or Maury Povich).In addition to completely obscuring the original concept with pointless restrictions on the facts that ultimately proves nothing, you are now pissing me off.
The overall point is this and I suggest you read carefully, because I'm not repeating it again for you.
Teams frequently come from anywhere from 3 to 7 games behind during April, May, June July and even August. It happens all the time.
That is the point. Using exactly May 3rd or exactly 5 GB is meaningless, because it is a moving target. The Cubs could be 3 GB in a week, or they could be 9 GB and the list of comparable teams tilts dramatically one way or the other if that happens.
And neither you or anybody else know what will happen in the next week or even further out.
jazzman56 - May 8, 2006
to answer the question
so why are we wrong and you are right?because exceptions to the rule by their rarity prove the rule, not the exceptions.
you can cite all the exceptional examples there are. they remain nonetheless exceptions.
you tell me 2005 houston. fine. i never said it's impossible.
i said it's unlikely. and for my evidence, i'll cite 2005 pittsburgh, 2005 cincinnati, 2005 milwaukee and the 2005 cubs -- as well as the 2005 teams for colorado, los angeles, san francisco, arizona, washington, florida and the mets.
i know that human sensibility tends to distort reality in such a way as to radically overemphasize the frequency and importance of the unusual, and i know that a basic western education does nothing to remedy that flaw -- but it is wrong to do so nonetheless.
gaius marius - May 8, 2006
Of course...
... there are going to be many teams that are 5+ games back in May and don't win. Sheesh. There are twenty-two teams each year that don't make the playoffs.You are attempting to study this as if it were just numbers on a page. They're not just numbers. They represent real performance by real human beings.
I'd buy your theory more readily if you went back, say, to the beginning of divisional play in 1969 and studied ALL teams and told me then, how many came back from such a deficit at ANY time during the season. Even then, since there are a large percentage of ALL teams that DON'T make the playoffs every year -- no matter how far ahead or behind they get -- your "percentage" theory is faulty.
Al Yellon - May 8, 2006
Re
But that's exactly the point, Al. Because only 8 out of 30 teams can make the playoffs under any circumstance, it's important not to dig yourself in a hole early. Doing so makes it significantly more unlikely that you'll overcome the inherent disadvantage every team starts with on opening day.And none of this takes into account the structural differences between teams. For instance, last year the Bankees started the marathon very slowly, but given their makeup, it was hardly surprising that they eventually climbed back into the playoffs. Can anyone look at the Cubs and argue they have the same kind of potential? Yet counting the Bankees success last year without factoring this in raises the probability for the Cubs doing so this year, when, in fact, the underlying reason actually argues against them.
Jed Taylor - May 9, 2006
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