So!
I'm sure you were wondering, after 100 days, what we were going to do so you'd have an everyday post until games actually start.
This is something I did last year, and it was well-received, and so I'm going to do it again, only this time make it a little more organized.
I'm going to post projection threads for: the eight likely position player starters, the five (maybe six) starting rotation candidates, and two or three significant relievers (likely Dempster, Wood and Howry). That's fifteen or sixteen players; if any of you think I've left anyone important off, let me know.
For hitters, starting with Michael Barrett, let's project:
AB, R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB, SO, AVG, OBA, SLG
I will also need a volunteer or volunteers to tabulate all the data for a final projection for each player.
I'll help you out on one category for Michael this year: I predict the number of intrascrotal hematomas he will have in 2007 will be zero.
Have fun with this!
0 recs | 65 comments
Ouch
You had to bring THAT up again. Predictions later, I have to sit down.mrcubsfan - February 19, 2007
Oh, all right, then.
I'll start:AB 450
R 60
H 136
2B 30
3B 1
HR 16
RBI 70
BB 30
SO 50
Line: .302/.346/.471
Note: when you are calculating the line, make sure it matches the number of doubles/triples/HR/walks you select (you'll have to do a bit of simple math for this)
Al Yellon - February 19, 2007
Al...
I can tabulate and compile the data if you'd like...ar_hawkins - February 19, 2007
Thanks...
... I received an offer from BCB reader Imtrejo (who did this last year).If the number of posts gets too large, sure, you could help out, or the two of you could split them up.
I asked Imtrejo to post about that here, so you two can work it out.
Thanks!
Al Yellon - February 19, 2007
Sounds good
Imtrejo, if you need help just let me know.Here's my guess:
AB 442
R 55
H 130
2B 32
3B 3
HR 18
RBI 67
BB 36
SO 45
Line: .294/.376/.502
ar_hawkins - February 19, 2007
Help.
If these are going to be done on a daily basis, there may be a day or two that I can't get to it right away. If so, I'll let you know.Imtrejo - February 19, 2007
Sounds good
Just shoot me an email.ar_hawkins@yahoo.com
ar_hawkins - February 19, 2007
I'll guess
he'll do about the same as last season, but with less time off.420 AB,
60 R,
128 H,
29 2B,
2 3B,
18 HR,
62 RBI,
37 BB,
47 SO,
0.305 AVG,
0.400 OBA,
0.512 SLG
(0.912 OPS)
Jason
jcg996 - February 19, 2007
Oops
Nice math error by me - no, I wasn't predicting Michael would get hit by a ridiculous number of pitches. I'll change that to0.365 OBA
(0.877 OPS)
jcg996 - February 19, 2007
Don't forget...
..to factor in how his suspension days will affect total ABs this season.You know, for when the WhiteSox come to town in May and Pierzynski catches another right cross for gettin' fresh.
Will23 - February 19, 2007
Projection
AB 472R 64
H 134
2B 28
3B 2
HR 14
RBI 67
BB 34
SO 64
Line: .289/.343/.464
Unique - February 19, 2007
PDP (Pipe Dream Projection)
AB 446R 69
H 140
2B 33
3B 3
HR 24
RBI 74
BB 33
SO 42
Line: .310/.350/.486
UZI
Ozgreeder - February 19, 2007
Your line...
is actually closer to.314
.370
.563
.933
tyger1147 - February 19, 2007
I think
tyger1147 - February 19, 2007
Actually your both wrong
the OBP is .388Imtrejo - February 19, 2007
How so?
tyger1147 - February 19, 2007
On Base Percentage
Walks + Hits / At BatsYou can also figure a few errors and Hit by Pitch but that may be going a bit to far.
Imtrejo - February 19, 2007
Actually...
... it's Walks + Hits / AtBats + WalksTry it again.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2007
I just noticed this as I hit 'Post'
Damn, I'm ruining my own credibility!Imtrejo - February 19, 2007
I'm shitty...
at math. Can you tell? Either that, or I'm extremely lazy and didn't feel like doing it.UZI
Ozgreeder - February 19, 2007
Oh wait...
You just added (walks + hits) divided by official AB's. That's not OBP.tyger1147 - February 19, 2007
Barrett
2007 Projections (what would have been rank in MLB among "regular" catchers last year-depending what you call David Ross)AB = 425 (15th)
R = 55
H = 125
2B = 30
3B = 2
HR = 15 (13th)
RBI = 65 (t-9th)
BB = 42
SO = 45
AVG = .294 (10th)
OBA = .370 (5th)
SLG = .480 (6th)
OPS = .850 (5th)
tyger1147 - February 19, 2007
I'd love to see projections of Wuertz
as think he's prime for a breakout year (me) and others think he can't pitch on back-to-back days (Al!), and perhaps just as many don't even think he'll make the roster.tyger1147 - February 19, 2007
I'll keep him in mind.
Thanks!Al Yellon - February 19, 2007
Change Runs Scored
from 55 to 62tyger1147 - February 19, 2007
Here's mine
Barrett:AB - 420
R - 53
H - 122
2B - 30
3B - 1
HR - 21
RBI - 70
BB - 45
SO - 47
Line - .291/.359/.516
pageian - February 19, 2007
The line I was going to post...
...is so similar to this one that I'm just going to go with it. So, for whoever calculates, just enter this one twice please.gravedigger - February 19, 2007
Projection
AB 450R 65
H 133
2B 27
3B 2
HR 14
RBI 58
BB 40
SO 54
AVE. .296
OBP. .384
SLG% .431
Imtrejo - February 19, 2007
I'm on board............
.........with this projection. Double it up!tville - February 19, 2007
Outfield and 2nd Base
I'm curious as to what you're going to do with those positions. Maybe leave DeRosa, Jones, Murton, Floyd off until after the pitchers so we at least know what Piniella and/or Hendry are thinking.tyger1147 - February 19, 2007
Or maybe do all of them...
... and you can figure out how you want to project them.If I don't do them till after Piniella decides, I could be waiting till the end of March.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2007
True...
and I didn't necessarily mean until he decides, but at least until we had a better idea. But you're right. I'd rather see them all up and see what we all come up with as far as playing time instead of just 8 guys up there, ya know?tyger1147 - February 19, 2007
Here we go...
AB 469R 64
H 138
2B 29
3B 6
HR 17
RBI 58
BB 38
SO 44
AVG .295
OBP .371
SLG .547
I think it would be beneficial to all of us if you posted each players stats from last year from here on out. That would make it alot easier. Plus Al, you put OBA on accident rather than OBP just incase you didnt notice, no big deal though.
LilLPLancer23 - February 19, 2007
I'll post...
... a link to their baseball-reference stats.OBA is the same thing as OBP (On-Base Average; On-Base Percentage, just a different term).
Al Yellon - February 19, 2007
I don't know what your "compilation"
is for, but a lot of the OBP's and SLG's are going to be mathematically inaccurate from their own stats given. So maybe those should be left out. Like Lil' prancers for example.tyger1147 - February 19, 2007
This is why...
... I asked, and will ask again, that anyone who posts a projection, please do the math to make sure your OBA and SLG are correct.In any case, whoever is compiling will add it up right, I hope.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2007
A number of people are way off...
...with the SLG.However, OBP usually includes HBP, so I wouldn't be too strict about that one matching the other stats projected.
Dave Geiser
dvdmgsr - February 19, 2007
Well...
to be technical, OBP also sometimes (or all the time) includes sac flies in the bottom part, which would "negate" a few HBP's.Not to mention, the one the that I brought up, Barrett would have to be hit by 19 pitches without a Sac Fly to make it accurate.
At best, any OBP should probably be (guessing) 5-15 points higher than (Hits + BB) / (AB + BB). Anything else and it's getting tricky.
tyger1147 - February 19, 2007
AAACK!!!
This isn't supposed to be technical, it's supposed to be fun.If I wanted to be technical, I would have had you include all kinds of "advanced" stats. But what fun would that be?
Just assume, for the purposes of these projections, that we are only including hits and walks. That really ought to be close enough for this purpose.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2007
I know... I know...
I was just giving someone else a hard time. Sorry.tyger1147 - February 19, 2007
Julie eye roll
Yeah, because there's nothing fun about stats.gravedigger - February 19, 2007
OK, smartypants.
Is there?Al Yellon - February 19, 2007
Yes
gravedigger - February 19, 2007
Show me some.
n/tAl Yellon - February 19, 2007
I dont know
I guess I get some satisfaction and enjoyment out of seeing a clearer picture through advanced stats.More fun than RBI.
gravedigger - February 19, 2007
I think
Barret will crack 20 HR this year if he stays healthy, he would have last year imoksucubbie - February 19, 2007
Barret
AB 468R 64
H 145
2B 22
3B 1
HR 20
RBI 72
BB 40
SO 50
AVG .309
OBA .364
SLG .581
tcjhawk - February 19, 2007
Projection
345 AB,45 R,
90 H,
12 2B,
0 3B,
7 HR,
32 RBI,
15 BB,
60 SO,
.261 AVG,
.292 OBA,
.357 SLG
(0.649 OPS)
frustratedfan - February 19, 2007
Barrett Projection
475 AB68 R
139 H
28 2B
1 3B
18 HR
67 RBI
44 BB
70 K
.292 BA
.354 OBA
.469 SLG
.823 OPS
Don't ask me why I'm being so optimistic.
dvdmgsr - February 19, 2007
Hmm...
It seems mine are right on with PECOTA. I guess I'm not necessarily being over-the-top.dvdmgsr - February 19, 2007
130-135 Games is key
I think it's key that we have hit bat in the lineup for at least 130 games like '04 and '05. Last year he was only in 107 due to injury and suspension. With the guys ahead of him in this lineup, I don't think 20 homers and 70-75 RBI is unrealistic if he stays healthy. If only he had Henry Blanco's defensive abilities and throwing arm. He's gotten better, but he is still more of an offensive catcher, which is certainly not a bad thing.I'd predict a line of .285/18/75, with an OBP of about .350 and SLG Pct. of about .500.
ctcoff99 - February 19, 2007
Do you think that
Barrett can make even more improvement with his defensive ability and throwing? Somtimes it seems that he is adequate, and then sometimes it seems like he's really hurting us back there defensively.deadcatbounce - February 19, 2007
my projections
AB = 450R = 70
H = 122
2B = 28
3B = 0
HR = 19
RBI = 72
BB = 38
SO = 50
AVG = .271
OBA = .356
SLG = .460
OPS = .816
cubsfan2883 - February 19, 2007
Barret should make the All Star this year
AB 444R 65
H 133
2B 28
3B 1
HR 20
RBI 68
BB 37
SO 54
AVG .300
OBA .353
SLG .502
OPS .812
I don't know if I did OPS right.
amaru - February 19, 2007
I hope that you are correct
And if Michael does hit like that, he'll have waaaaaay more than 68 RBI'sIhatethecards - February 19, 2007
Come on Barrett....
AB 415R 58
H 128
2B 21
3B 3
HR 18
RBI 78
BB 35
SO 55
Line: .308/.362/.503
stelmodad - February 19, 2007
Line
424 AB,39 R,
125 H,
27 2B,
2 3B,
16 HR,
55 RBI,
55 BB,
75 SO,
.295 AVG,
.345 OBA,
.481 SLG
(826 OPS)
Carlos - February 19, 2007
underrated
465 AB71 R
141 H
27 2B
2 3B
20 HR
75 RBI
64 BB
51 K
.289
.371 OBP
.512 SLG
.831 OPS
he'll see even better pitchers with Soriano and a healthy Lee.
CarolinaCub15 - February 19, 2007
On barrett
Maybe not now but if he has another good year on O and improves some on D would you try and sign him at the ASB?kerrysotherwife - February 19, 2007
Barrett Prediction
Hello all. It's been since ancient times that I've posted but I lurk here nearly every day. I go back all the way to the USENET days. Yikes.432 AB
55 R
122 H
26 2B
2 3B
17 HR
58 RBI
36 BB
62 SO
.282/.470/.336
BJ Simpson - February 19, 2007
Barrett Projecton
422 AB'S52 R
124 H
34 2B
2 3B
18 HR
74 RBI
45 BB
59 SO
.294/.351/.521
JD McCubbie - February 19, 2007
To those...
... who offered to total these up, I think we'll do it differently this year. Last year I waited a couple of days and then posted the community total on the front page.What I'll do this year is, after a couple days I'll close off comments in the thread. Then you can total them -- email the total to me and once the series is done, I'll make a post with everyone's projections for all the players at once.
Al Yellon - February 20, 2007
a little late...
Ok, here's what I got:G: 110
Ab: 390
R: 60
H: 125
2B: 30
3B: 2
HR: 20
RBI: 65
BB: 35
SO: 45
.321/.381/.562
cubby23 - February 20, 2007
Curse you!
Al Yellon! You know my Achille's Heel! You just feed the fire and make this place more addictive don't you?I forgot these were coming! I'll be around long enough to drop some projections, after all, I love these!
Barrett:
AB: 443
R: 53
H: 113
2B: 28
3B: 5
HR: 14
RBI: 57
BB: 36
SO: 48
AVG: .297
OBP: .359
SLG: .475
Faith plus 1 - February 20, 2007
Welcome back for the moment!
Nice to see you again!secdelahc - February 20, 2007
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