...is influenced by the fact that it imagines Pie, Theriot and the pitcher are batting behind him.
Really, by "I'm sure" I mean "I have no idea, but can wildly speculate."
I'd mostly pay attention to the "triple slash" stats put out by any computerized projection system. The rest is all playing-time dependant, and there's a lot of human factors involved there that the computer isn't able to come to terms with. But for the rate stats, they work out pretty well.
I think D-Lee definitely had his power stroke back by the end of the year. With some more rest for his wrist this off-season, I expect him to have a good year with good power.
The man had a serious wrist injury......he'll be fully healthy this season. He's gamer and tried to come back in 2005 even when he shouldn't have, may have retarded his healing process.
is not as optimistic as Bill James' and may not be as optimistic as PECOTA's given what Nate Silver has said. All you have to do is look at Soto's '07 stats in both AAA and MLB and see why any projection system will be very optimistic. He tore the cover off the ball at both levels all season long. His ML rate stats were better than Lance Berkman's and Ryan Howard's. Of course, we expect the league will adjust to him and then we will see just how good Geovany can be.
But his 2007 OPS is not like Theriot's 2006 ML OPS where there was no minor league correlative performance. Soto did this all last year. And we have good reason to see why 2007 was better than 2006 and 2005 - Soto lost weight and added bat speed. As long as Soto hasn't put that weight back on, I'm optimistic, too.
These are probably the best freely available projections there are; PECOTA is better but you have to pay to play.
A few quick notes:
Everybody seems to love Geovanny Soto. Pie's numbers look unspectacular, but still a (slight) upgrade on our CF production from last season. And people are predicting that Lee's power stroke comes back in a big way.
Probably sometime later I'll take these numbers and run them into a spreadsheet like I did with CHONE, mostly to see how close the two systems are.
Lee misses 40 games because it's a weighted average of the past three seasons, and he missed a LOT of games due to his wrist injury.
Like I said above - the "rate" stats (AVG, OBP and SLG) are what you want to pay attention to. The counting stats and playing time estimates are a lot less reliable.
...but what the hell's up with our rotation? It looks horrible! Our ace winning 14 games? And I guess I'm not too up on our prospects, cuz I don't know the guy Mitchell Atkins, but he's projected with a 7.16 ERA and going 4-14...?
...that I look at these numbers a lot differently than the rest of you seem to.
Mitch Atkins did well in high-A ball, got promoted to AA late in the year and hit a rough spot. That projection looks about in-line for what you could expect for a guy who from a guy who hasn't mastered AA yet. Sometimes these projection systems go a bit overboard in the number of minor leaguers they project, if you ask me - nobody expects them to play in the majors this year, so why project them. (The answer probably is to look for sleepers and to see who's nearing major league readiness.)
The numbers for Zambrano and Hill look very promsing, actually. I'll agree the back end of our rotation seems... suspect.
...I'm here on BCB, so yes, I get a good deal more Cubs information than most fans, but I am still not an extremely knowledgeable fan when it comes to less than AAA players. It is interesting to read and hear about players that soon become our regulars (i.e. I first saw Fox and Soto in spring training and had no idea who the hell they were).
has him regressing to be about league average at 2B. Maybe when we are calling the Roberts attempted acquisition a "marginal" upgrade we are being too optimistic for DeRosa.
It might be a little much to expect DeRosa to repeat his 2007 performance again, while Roberts, coming from the AL East, would probably exceed last years numbers.
Speculating the Brian Roberts deal will happen soon and the Cubs will give up and the deal includes pitchers Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher and Ronny Cedeno.
Not sure I like giving up Marshall...
Perhaps more significant in the article is his projection for the lineup:
Roberts, Ryan Theriot, Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Kosuke Fukudome, Derrek Lee, Geovany Soto and Felix Pie.
D Lee batting 6th? Not sure where that's coming from.
already on the "Roberts to Cubs?" diary. I'll say, this, though - I can't remember the last time I've read Phil Rogers and given what people are saying he's saying, I don't know when I'll ever feel the need to do that again.
....nothing more. I've been a Cub fan since 1957 and have witnessed a lot of abject failure. So, I don't care what the projections are. I just want to see the Cubs have a successful 2008, and get the job done between the white lines. I really don't care who ends up being their best player, as long as they go to the World Series.
ZiPS really isn't fond of Hart or Gallagher. I should note here that projections of pitching are such crapshoots that I don't know if that's even particularly meaningful, but it's still not comforting. ZiPS is probably the best at projecting pitching, although it's accuracy rating is still under 50% last I checked.
ZiPS is rather pessimistic about Mark DeRosa, projecting him to hit .276/.349/.405 - CHONE, for example, pegs him at .274/.353/.417.
In point of fact, ZiPS doesn't see him as substantially better than Mike Fontenot, who it sees hitting .268/.333/.412. I don't know what ZiPS sees in Fontenot that I don't, but it's worth noting. ZiPS also expects good things out of Micah Hoffpauir: .265/.321/.459. If nothing else that sort of production would make Daryle Ward expendable in a trade.
Another projection that suprised me in its optimism was Sam Fuld, at .261/.329/.377. Okay, so it's not exactly GOOD. But better than I'd expected.
Meanwhile, I should note that ZiPS absolutely hates the Great Destroyer (you may know him better as Ronny Cedeno), projecting him to hit like Ryan Theriot. Ouch. Ouch. Ouch. (Nor is it particularly kind to Eric Patterson.)
By the way, that production out of Henry Blanco? That's what fear looks like. The worst part is that Koyie Hill isn't any better. Wow.
a .724 OPS seems pretty decent for a guy who didn't top .800 OPS in AAA, especially when you compare it to the projections for three guys who hit MUCH better than him last year in Iowa (Cedeno, Pie, and Fontenot).
The ZIPS is also pretty kind to Micah Hoffpauir (.780 OPS), Matt Craig (.747 OPS), and as you said Fontenot and Fuld.
I'd also say that's not an unreasonable projection for Cedeno. The ZIPS doesn't have him quite in Theriot territory. He's expected to out-OPS Theriot by .038, which is a decent margin. That .700 OPS is pretty reasonable based on Cedeno's major league stats.
Quite frankly though, I'm not sure how they come up with these projections.
I'm first!
Did I misread, or was that a projection of 1 stolen base for Dome?philadelphiacub - January 9, 2008
One for Ramirez, too.
That'd be news. He has a total of three since joining the Cubs, 11 in his career.Al Yellon - January 9, 2008
You never know...
...Ted Lilly had one last year!John Q Freejazz - January 9, 2008
for those who love Sean Marshall over Rich Hill
check out the difference this season that projection systems have between he and Rich HillDartmouthCubsFan - January 9, 2008
I think D-Lee's
Power stroke comes back this year. I expect 30+ HR from him this year. Soto's prpjection is VERY optimistic.Unique - January 9, 2008
And a little odd, too.
It has Soto with 130 hits, 41 walks, 29 doubles, 20 HR -- and only 44 runs scored out of all of that?Al Yellon - January 9, 2008
Yeah,
I take things like this with a grain of salt. I think I would put more stock into the projections we put in before the season.Unique - January 9, 2008
I'm sure the runs scored...
...is influenced by the fact that it imagines Pie, Theriot and the pitcher are batting behind him.Really, by "I'm sure" I mean "I have no idea, but can wildly speculate."
I'd mostly pay attention to the "triple slash" stats put out by any computerized projection system. The rest is all playing-time dependant, and there's a lot of human factors involved there that the computer isn't able to come to terms with. But for the rate stats, they work out pretty well.
cwyers - January 9, 2008
I agree
I think D-Lee definitely had his power stroke back by the end of the year. With some more rest for his wrist this off-season, I expect him to have a good year with good power.John Q Freejazz - January 9, 2008
Lee's power is back
He hit 6 HR and only slugged 479 in the first half, but hit 16 HR in the second half and slugged 554.So I'll be pretty disappointed if he doesn't hit at least 30 HR next year.
cubsfan25 - January 9, 2008
Thank you for bringing sanity back here
(no sarcasm)The man had a serious wrist injury......he'll be fully healthy this season. He's gamer and tried to come back in 2005 even when he shouldn't have, may have retarded his healing process.
TheBeerBaron - January 11, 2008
Soto's projection
is not as optimistic as Bill James' and may not be as optimistic as PECOTA's given what Nate Silver has said. All you have to do is look at Soto's '07 stats in both AAA and MLB and see why any projection system will be very optimistic. He tore the cover off the ball at both levels all season long. His ML rate stats were better than Lance Berkman's and Ryan Howard's. Of course, we expect the league will adjust to him and then we will see just how good Geovany can be.But his 2007 OPS is not like Theriot's 2006 ML OPS where there was no minor league correlative performance. Soto did this all last year. And we have good reason to see why 2007 was better than 2006 and 2005 - Soto lost weight and added bat speed. As long as Soto hasn't put that weight back on, I'm optimistic, too.
DGU - January 9, 2008
Soto's
PROJECTIONUnique - January 9, 2008
They're here! They're finally here!
Oh happy day.These are probably the best freely available projections there are; PECOTA is better but you have to pay to play.
A few quick notes:
Everybody seems to love Geovanny Soto. Pie's numbers look unspectacular, but still a (slight) upgrade on our CF production from last season. And people are predicting that Lee's power stroke comes back in a big way.
Probably sometime later I'll take these numbers and run them into a spreadsheet like I did with CHONE, mostly to see how close the two systems are.
cwyers - January 9, 2008
DLee "average" at first?
Pujols excellent? Pie- Average in CF, but "very good" in LF & RF? Sori "very good" in LF?I assume this is the fielding portion- not sure how he comes up with this.
tommy veryzer - January 9, 2008
I was
thinking the same thing, Tommy. I don't get it. Am I reading these tables correctly?Even a lot of the offensive numbers look like poor projections, if that makes any sense. I just don't see it - Lee missing 40 games? Why?
Kegler - January 9, 2008
ZiPS isn't meant to project playing time.
Lee misses 40 games because it's a weighted average of the past three seasons, and he missed a LOT of games due to his wrist injury.Like I said above - the "rate" stats (AVG, OBP and SLG) are what you want to pay attention to. The counting stats and playing time estimates are a lot less reliable.
cwyers - January 9, 2008
Of all the people to be....
...Pie's #1 comp? Man o man. When will it end?Jobu - January 9, 2008
Lol
Very true. Looking at his mean though I think any of us would take a .750 .OPS from Pie in 2008. I would be satisfied with that.pageian - January 9, 2008
This is kinda fun...
...but what the hell's up with our rotation? It looks horrible! Our ace winning 14 games? And I guess I'm not too up on our prospects, cuz I don't know the guy Mitchell Atkins, but he's projected with a 7.16 ERA and going 4-14...?Dan
dtpollitt - January 9, 2008
I'm starting to figure out...
...that I look at these numbers a lot differently than the rest of you seem to.Mitch Atkins did well in high-A ball, got promoted to AA late in the year and hit a rough spot. That projection looks about in-line for what you could expect for a guy who from a guy who hasn't mastered AA yet. Sometimes these projection systems go a bit overboard in the number of minor leaguers they project, if you ask me - nobody expects them to play in the majors this year, so why project them. (The answer probably is to look for sleepers and to see who's nearing major league readiness.)
The numbers for Zambrano and Hill look very promsing, actually. I'll agree the back end of our rotation seems... suspect.
cwyers - January 9, 2008
Well, you are probably right...
...I'm here on BCB, so yes, I get a good deal more Cubs information than most fans, but I am still not an extremely knowledgeable fan when it comes to less than AAA players. It is interesting to read and hear about players that soon become our regulars (i.e. I first saw Fox and Soto in spring training and had no idea who the hell they were).Dan
dtpollitt - January 9, 2008
DeRosa's projection
has him regressing to be about league average at 2B. Maybe when we are calling the Roberts attempted acquisition a "marginal" upgrade we are being too optimistic for DeRosa.DGU - January 9, 2008
Agreed
It might be a little much to expect DeRosa to repeat his 2007 performance again, while Roberts, coming from the AL East, would probably exceed last years numbers.pageian - January 9, 2008
That optimistic projection for Felix is sweet
Now THAT's upside!cubzfan - January 9, 2008
Is Wade Miller still a Cub?
Thought he was long gonejessica - January 9, 2008
Roberts deal almost done?
Everyone see the Phil Rogers piece on Chicagosports.com?http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2008/01/looking-like-a.html
Speculating the Brian Roberts deal will happen soon and the Cubs will give up and the deal includes pitchers Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher and Ronny Cedeno.
Not sure I like giving up Marshall...
Perhaps more significant in the article is his projection for the lineup:
Roberts, Ryan Theriot, Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Kosuke Fukudome, Derrek Lee, Geovany Soto and Felix Pie.
D Lee batting 6th? Not sure where that's coming from.
Any thoughts?
Willgly - January 9, 2008
There's a lot of commentary on this
already on the "Roberts to Cubs?" diary. I'll say, this, though - I can't remember the last time I've read Phil Rogers and given what people are saying he's saying, I don't know when I'll ever feel the need to do that again.DGU - January 9, 2008
Projections are just that....projections
....nothing more. I've been a Cub fan since 1957 and have witnessed a lot of abject failure. So, I don't care what the projections are. I just want to see the Cubs have a successful 2008, and get the job done between the white lines. I really don't care who ends up being their best player, as long as they go to the World Series.thisoldcubfan - January 9, 2008
Had a bit more time to dig through the data...
...and I've got a few more notes.ZiPS really isn't fond of Hart or Gallagher. I should note here that projections of pitching are such crapshoots that I don't know if that's even particularly meaningful, but it's still not comforting. ZiPS is probably the best at projecting pitching, although it's accuracy rating is still under 50% last I checked.
ZiPS is rather pessimistic about Mark DeRosa, projecting him to hit .276/.349/.405 - CHONE, for example, pegs him at .274/.353/.417.
In point of fact, ZiPS doesn't see him as substantially better than Mike Fontenot, who it sees hitting .268/.333/.412. I don't know what ZiPS sees in Fontenot that I don't, but it's worth noting. ZiPS also expects good things out of Micah Hoffpauir: .265/.321/.459. If nothing else that sort of production would make Daryle Ward expendable in a trade.
Another projection that suprised me in its optimism was Sam Fuld, at .261/.329/.377. Okay, so it's not exactly GOOD. But better than I'd expected.
Meanwhile, I should note that ZiPS absolutely hates the Great Destroyer (you may know him better as Ronny Cedeno), projecting him to hit like Ryan Theriot. Ouch. Ouch. Ouch. (Nor is it particularly kind to Eric Patterson.)
By the way, that production out of Henry Blanco? That's what fear looks like. The worst part is that Koyie Hill isn't any better. Wow.
cwyers - January 10, 2008
I'd say it was fairly kind to Patterson...
a .724 OPS seems pretty decent for a guy who didn't top .800 OPS in AAA, especially when you compare it to the projections for three guys who hit MUCH better than him last year in Iowa (Cedeno, Pie, and Fontenot).The ZIPS is also pretty kind to Micah Hoffpauir (.780 OPS), Matt Craig (.747 OPS), and as you said Fontenot and Fuld.
I'd also say that's not an unreasonable projection for Cedeno. The ZIPS doesn't have him quite in Theriot territory. He's expected to out-OPS Theriot by .038, which is a decent margin. That .700 OPS is pretty reasonable based on Cedeno's major league stats.
Quite frankly though, I'm not sure how they come up with these projections.
SouthernCub - January 10, 2008
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