With two deals made yesterday -- Matt Holliday to the A's, and Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham to the Nationals, and Jake Peavy... still a Padre a this writing, the trade market appears to be heating up, and on Thursday, declared free agents will be eligible to sign with any team.
One interesting development overnight was the Padres' withdrawal of a $4 million offer to Trevor Hoffman. Granted, Hoffman is 41 and didn't have such a good year in 2008, but he is a franchise icon and that offer was about half what he made in '08. Whether this is another part of San Diego's cost-cutting in the wake of owner John Moores' costly divorce, or whether it's a harbinger of things to come -- will teams start to rein in spending because of the current economic crisis? -- remains to be seen.
What seems clear is that the Cubs aren't going to be major players in the free agent market. Much as we might like to see CC Sabathia in blue pinstripes, it's not going to happen. The only free agents the Cubs are likely to sign are their own -- Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood and Henry Blanco, I believe, will all eventually re-up. Daryle Ward may not be back, and Chad Fox and Jon Lieber -- well, yes, they filed, but you didn't really expect to see them as Cubs again, did you?
So instead, Jim Hendry is going to have to get creative. With the Marlins dealing Willingham, does that mean Jeremy Hermida is off the market? I would argue that the Cubs might be able to get him with a package that could include Felix Pie and Sean Marshall. This is pure speculation on my part, and likely they'd have to put another prospect in such a deal, but Pie would be an immediate starter in Florida and Marshall would replace the traded Scott Olsen in the Marlins' rotation.
With Hermida on board and Kosuke Fukudome likely then moving to CF as a platoon partner for Reed Johnson, that would complete the Cubs' starting outfield for 2009. I would still like to see the Cubs sign Kevin Millar to back up LF, RF and 1B... and to be that clubhouse presence that was missing, somehow, during the disastrous 2008 postseason. Yes, I am well aware that Millar is getting on in years and didn't have a very good offensive season in 2008 (despite hitting 20 HR in 531 AB and drawing 71 walks, which would have ranked among the Cubs' team leaders). The Cubs wouldn't be asking Millar to start -- just back up, and provide the looseness that any winning clubhouse needs. Since Hermida would be the starting LH bat in RF, having Millar replace Daryle Ward as the #1 pinch-hitter would be acceptable. At one time I advocated trading Derrek Lee, but after seeing some of the discussions here which mentioned that his neck and back problems may have been the cause of his power dropoff, I would think that an offseason's rest would get him back into shape. He'll probably never have a year like he had in 2005, but even if he could get back to his 2004 level (.860 OPS), that'd be just fine.
With Sean Marshall gone, the Cubs would need another pitcher to perform the role that Marshall did quite well last year -- start occasionally and be a long reliever... that is, if Lou even knows how to use a long reliever, something he failed to do in many situations that called for it. There are some mid-range starting pitcher free agents that could fill this role without costing a fortune: Randy Wolf, Mark Hendrickson, or even Freddy Garcia, who started for Lou for several years in Seattle and who appeared recovered from his arm troubles in pitching five strong innings in that September 29 Tigers/White Sox makeup game at the Cell.
Filling the slot being vacated by the (presumably) departed Bob Howry should be fairly simple to do, either via someone on this list of free-agent relievers (would you take a chance on bringing back some former Cubs like Juan Cruz or Kyle Farnsworth?) or perhaps, by someone who will come out of spring training and surprise. There seems to be someone like that virtually every year. Or maybe Michael Wuertz will finally fulfill the promise that has had him as part of the Cubs' bullpen for the last five seasons.
The rest of the team seems fairly well set; regardless of whether you agree with him or not, Lou likes Ryan Theriot and he will be the starting SS, unless there's someone who could come in cheaply to replace him. One possibility could be Juan Uribe -- and if Uribe didn't start, he could capably back up all three infield positions. Ronny Cedeno did a decent job as a backup in 2008, and if he came into 2009 in the same role, I think we could live with it. Another possibility is Nate Spears, who the Cubs acquired almost as an afterthought from the Orioles in the Corey Patterson deal three years ago. Spears will be 24 in May, had an .832 OPS in Double-A last year and as of today is replicating that (.827) in the Arizona Fall League. He hits lefthanded and has a good glove. Spears isn't on the 40-man roster, which now stands at 39, but that can be easily remedied.
The bottom line is that I don't think the Cubs are getting Jake Peavy, and that's fine with me. Peavy's numbers outside of Petco don't scream "ace" to me, and his contract, four years' worth, would hamstring the team in an era when some here are screaming for Hendry to dump some of the backloaded deals he's handed out like Halloween candy over the last couple of years. The Cubs ought to also look hard at whoever is available in the Rule 5 draft and also at the non-tender list when it comes out in the middle of December.
As I said last time I posted on this topic, this team won 97 games a year ago. There's no need to blow it up and start over. Tweaking, upgrading the bench and bullpen, and making sure the starting rotation has backups in case of injury, are the most important things.
For those of you screaming and yelling about the alleged possibility that Bud Selig is going to "install" John Canning as Cubs owner, I refer you to this November 7 article from the Sun-Times:
Bidders for the team include Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks and the cable channel HDNet, and Thomas Ricketts, president of corporate bond dealer Incapital LLC. An insider said Ricketts, whose family wealth derives from the TD Ameritrade brokerage, currently has the inside track.
Cuban has a colorful reputation and drinks beer in the stands with the fans, but the source said the credit drought has hurt his chances. "Whatever the price for the Cubs, he was only going to put in $100 million of his own money," the source said.
And that last part is why Cuban might be out, not any supposed enmity from Bud Selig and/or Jerry Reinsdorf. I agree with the article: if the sale is consummated soon, it'll be the Ricketts group. But given the state of the economy, who knows?
0 recs | 215 comments
Lets hope whoever buys the Cubs has a stable marriage
Funny to think something like a divorce could effect a baseball team.
bren - November 11, 2008
That's only the case if you have a single principal owner.
If you have a partnership with multiple partners (as the White Sox do, not that I’m necessarily recommending that), something personal like John Moores’ problems becomes less important.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
Hermida & Pie
There might be a market for Felix, but I doubt its in Miami, they already have Cameron Maybin in CF and I dont think Maybin or Felix has enough power to play a corner OF spot.
bren - November 11, 2008
Pie could handle RF defensively, though.
Like I said, you might have to put another piece or two in a deal like that.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
Why do you think the price for Hermida
will be significantly, significantly higher than the price for Willingham AND Olsen?
DGU - November 11, 2008
Because Hermida has more upside.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
I can see comparing Hermida and Willingham
and saying Hermida has more upside (although Willingham has out-performed him to date). On the other hand, I could see comparing Hermida to Olsen and seeing attitude concerns for both and upside hopes for both, maybe Hermida still has more.
But then I ask – wait, Willingham AND Olsen? How can Hermida’s pricetag be five times as high as theirs together?
DGU - November 11, 2008
I didn't say five times as high, did I?
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
It seems to me
that Pie and Marshall are worth 5xs as much as Tony Womack lite and two low-level pitching prospects.
DGU - November 11, 2008
Al ...
why would trading for Peavy hamstring the Cubs MORE than re-signing Dempster? Seems like Dempster wants as much — if not MORE money — and I don’t think any of us think he’s more of an ace than Peavy.
elgato - November 11, 2008
I tend to agree...
Assumng that Peavy doesn’t ask for a significant restructuring of his deal, you’ve got a top-of-the-rotation starter for the next four years at under 60 million dollars. Who would you rather pay that sort of cash to, Peavy or Oliver Perez?
I’m not even in favor of the trade, but every team should be lucky enough to be so hamstrung.
Damen Jackson - November 11, 2008
I'd rather have Dempster.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
That's cool...
You should say that then. Although I think a 30 million dollar impasse is going to be too much to overcome. Just my opinion though.
You made my morning with the Trevor Hoffman news though. The Padres are losing their closer, their ace, and maybe their starting shortstop, and Giles is spinning nonsense about him staying in San Diego because they’re just a couple of pieces away.
Damen Jackson - November 11, 2008
Well, I did kind of say that I wanted Dempster.
Have always liked him, and I think his new workout routine makes it likely he’ll at least come close to repeating his 2008 season.
The Padres are going to be the worst team in baseball in 2009. If Giles likes it in SD, he should just say so.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
preferring Dempster is fine
… though I disagree. My main point is that Dempster probably won’t be a cheaper option.
elgato - November 11, 2008
That depends on...
… how much of a hometown discount he’s willing to give.
I still think it’s possible he signs before Thursday.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
You may be right, Al. A deal might be imminent.
Every time I hear the phrase “hometown discount”, I think of my favorite line from the movie “Heartbreak Ridge”. Clint Eastwood had been given a break by a judge for pissing on a cop car. The policeman was bitching about it and said to Easwood “Hey, I don’t give any hometown discount!”. Eastwood replies “It’s too bad, your old lady does.”
willie mays hayes' gloves - November 11, 2008
LMAO
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
what makes you think he's willing to give one?
I know he likes Hendry and the Cubs, but nothing I’ve read lately seems to indicate a willingness to provide a discount.
elgato - November 11, 2008
he'll give a hometown discount...
but I don’t think its nearly what most cubs fans think…..it seems like he may get offers of roughly 5 years, 70 million from other teams. I doubt he’d settle for less than 4 years, 55 million with the cubs.
cubsmania - November 11, 2008
Cub fan naivete?
Kansas25 - November 11, 2008
It better not be for 5 years
Look, Dempster may have had his career year. He was motivated to do so. The new split-finger pitch was terriffic for him. (Need I remind you many split-finger pitchers have wound up injured?) I’d take Peavy, who is proven over many years.
Dempster is proven over 1 year as a starter.
2 years, great. 3….acceptable risk. 5? No friggin’ way.
San Diego Smooth Jazz Man - November 12, 2008
My guess is he ends up with four years.
I agree that Hendry should walk away if Demp won’t back down from five. I’d personally prefer three with an option, but I’m not sure that’s doable.
daver - November 12, 2008
Dempster's Workout Routine
I’m glad you brought up Dempster’s Workout Routine.
Every. Single. Player. On. The. Cubs. should have an off-season routine on par with what Dempster did last year. That type of dedication breeds winners and is what should be expected from a professional. I love that Dempster, a veteran, has that drive. Its a shame that most veterans are much more “comfortable/content” than him.
otherones - November 11, 2008
Yet another reason I want to keep him.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
Of course Peavy "costs" more than Dempster
Peavy will cost you most of your tradeable players making it nearly impossible to get a leadoff hitter. Dempster costs money but unless it was Furcal you were after there really are not lead off guys to “buy” only to trade for.
Doggie Stalker - November 11, 2008
I think Al's point ...
was that getting Peavy would cost the Cubs more in dollars, not talent. Unless I misunderstood.
Orlando Hudson is a free agent and he could lead off.
elgato - November 11, 2008
Both money and players.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
You want Hudson?
Sure, Hudson is a good ballplayer, but you would pay the ten million+ annually that Hudson will undoubtedly get when you already have a second baseman who is probably better than Hudson already???
dakoose - November 11, 2008
Sorry Al
I respectfully disagree with your idea of bringing in Millar. I’ve said it before, no matter what happened down the stretch in 2008, or 2007 for that matter, pranks and hee haws aren’t going to get it done on the field. Millar is done. He’s not needed.
As for Hermida, I’m not sure the deal of Willingham means much to Florida. He is hampered by a back injury that Florida seemingly tired of. If they weren’t counting on him in the first place it shouldn’t have any bearing on Hermida’s availability…not that I’m in favor of acquiring him in the first place.
Just my two cents.
krummy12 - November 11, 2008
As I have said...
… this team won 97 games. It doesn’t need Kevin Millar to start. It needs a guy like that in the clubhouse.
Do NOT underestimate what Matt Stairs, a similar personality, did for the Phillies.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
Hmm... I'm left-handed, kinda chunky, and I can look pretty scruffy when I want to
I tell bad jokes, still remember a lot of pranks from college fraternity days (album cover and shaving cream was one of the best) and I’ve delivered a few hotfoots (hotfeet?) to unsuspecting ballhawks in my day out on Waveland.
And I’d gladly work for the ML minimum – what is it, something like $400K this year? Jimbo, get ’er done.
ballhawk - November 11, 2008
You'd be perfect.
I can see you on that exercise bike in the clubhouse eating donuts like Charlie Hough.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
Do you also like getting your ass hammered by guys?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiJwoNSLRwg
dakoose - November 11, 2008
nope. I'm chunky, scruffy, and a lefty but I'm NOT Canadian...
…but Montreal is my favorite NHL team.
ballhawk - November 12, 2008
The problem with bringing in Millar as a PH, is that he is a RHB.
Unless the Cards pick up Fuentes, a LHB PH is much more important. I’m not really comfortable entrusting that role to Hoff either — it might end up being LBR.
It has also been 6 years since he played in the NL, which puts him at a disadvantage as far as knowing the pitchers.
DeRoMyHero - November 11, 2008
I'm more bullish on the possibility of
Peavy, but won’t be too concerned if Hendry can’t pull it off. Agree with elgato above that at the dough discusse, Peavy looks better to me than Dempster, but that’s my opinion.
As for retreads, I’m okay with Cruz, but don’t want to see the Farns back in a Cub uniform. Seeing some of his performances with the Yankees and Tigers in recent years, I don’t see him bringing anything but a big fastball without movement. Pass.
N Oakley - November 11, 2008
My thoughts, exactly.
Fraggin Judge - November 11, 2008
say no
to Kyle Farnsworth.
elgato - November 11, 2008
Yeah, I have a feeling the Peavy thing might happen, too.
I’m not prepared to guarantee it, by any means, but I think Jake may want to join the Cubs and push Towers in that direction. I’ve read sources say that Peavy wants to join a competitive team. He may look at the Cubs rotation, lineup – and the fact they’ve won their division two years running – and kick the door open for Hendry to get the deal done.
daver - November 11, 2008
To a player coming from another organization, the Cubs have to look good.
A contender who sells out and has an exciting playing environment has to look good to a competitor.
Then again, a lazy player may prefer the lesser crowds and lower pressure in Atlanta.
Are you reading this Jake? Which are you, man or mouse?
N Oakley - November 11, 2008
Peavy is a competitor
in the vein of a Greg Maddux. Quiet, but is a gamer. He doesn’t have to stalk around the mound and pout like one of the Cubs starters to be proclaimed a ‘gamer.’
San Diego Smooth Jazz Man - November 12, 2008
Hermida
I think the Marlins would be more interested in younger players that wouldn’t have to be on their 40-man roster. IMHO, they’d rather have Wellington Castillo and Mitch Atkins than Pie and Marshall.
cubzfan - November 11, 2008
I like Castillo..
… but I’d probably do that deal.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
The Fish are in the market for a C.
DGU - November 11, 2008
Al, I don't get your fascination with a Millar type of guy.
The Cubs didn’t seem to have any clubhouse problems last year. They had Demp, who everyone loves. They had Soriano doing his different handshakes. They had the outfield ass bump (for lack of a better phrase) after each win. Zambrano and Fontenot’s pregame thing. Edmonds and Johnson seemed to ALWAYS be talking to someone when they were shown in the dugout. DeRo seemed to always be smiling in the dugout.
I just don’t see the lack of “looseness” or whatever people want to call it. I haven’t looked closely at Millar’s numbers so I can’t comment on whether or not I’m in favor of signing him because of his production. I think signing him strictly because of his personality is a poor way to construct a roster though.
kanderber - November 11, 2008
Somehow, the team got tight in the playoffs...
… and no one could get them out of it.
If not Millar, then someone like him. Numbers don’t always mean everything. I’m not talking about putting together an entire roster of players like this, just one guy.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
I like the idea of Kevin Millar
And agree 1000% with the analogy to Matt Stairs. A professional hitter who also adds a dimension to your clubhouse and dugout. A “ballplayer.”
MDBNIU - November 11, 2008
Would you let Woody walk
if you could get Hoffman for less years/dollars? The addition of Hoffman to the available closers certainly changes the closer market and could either allow us to retain Woody for less or allow us to pass over Woody for somebody like Hoffman if he is asking for less years.
TheRiot Police - November 11, 2008
Nope.
Hoffman is 41. He might be about done — he had quite a few spectacular blown saves in 2008.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
Well
Trevor only had 4 BS (Kerry had 6..although more innings pitch) last year and his Whip and ERA where not terrible. He saved 30 games and might have saved more if his team was not so bad. He might have blown a couple more too if given the opportunity. His one alarming stat is his homers allowed (8) vs Wood (3) given where he pitches his home ballgames at. If he is asking for a two year deal, I don’t think he is any more of risk than giving a 3 to 4 year deal to Wood. I like Kerry but having one injury free year in his arm still does little to mitigate his injury risk especially when he does not know what happened to make his shoulder better the last time.
Depending on the asking price…Hendry should at least listen…
TheRiot Police - November 11, 2008
However, he had over 30 saves with a s****y team
He’s good for a year. That’s about it. He started slowly (those are the games in question) but overall, Hoffman was acceptable. But multiple years….uh-uh.
San Diego Smooth Jazz Man - November 12, 2008
No way.
Woody is much, much, much, much better than Hoffman.
(I may be missing a few "much"es there.)
DGU - November 11, 2008
About Woody....
my Dad was at the Bears game Sunday, told me in an email yesterday that the guy 2 row behind him looked familiar but he couldn’t put his finger on why. Anyway, the guy leaves with a few minutes left in the game and my Dad hears the guy behind him tell his wife ‘Kerry Wood was sitting behind us!’ Then my Dad realized who it was. Can’t blame pops though, he’s a Tigers fan. Good to see Woody enjoying the Bears in peace, hope like heck he’s back.
thinskull - November 11, 2008
Al, great post as always
I sure hope you are right about the Ricketts family of Omaha (and Ameritrade) end up winning. The son is impressive and says all the right things.
Felix Pie and Sean Marshall for Jeremy Hermida? I do that trade in a flash. Trouble is I don’t think the rest of the baseball world is anxious to acquire Pie. At this point he is a throw-in to a deal.
Something tells me that Raul Ibanez is going to become a Cub. The problem I have with this is that he is considered a DH. How on earth do we expect him to play a serviceable right field at Wrigley at the advanced age of 36? We will have gone froma gold glover caliber outfielder in Kosuke to a liability. Not good.
It’s inevitable that Ryan Dempster re-sign with the Cubs. It WILL happen, just a matter of when. Maybe by next week.
Kerry Wood is a 50-50 proposition to return in my view.
MDBNIU - November 11, 2008
I said that...
… Pie and Marshall might be a starting point. You’d probably have to put at least another prospect or two in the deal to make it more enticing — someone above suggested Mitch Atkins and/or Welington Castillo.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
Most of your points are spot-on, MDBNIU. I think your evaluation of Pie
is a bit harsh. I would rate him as slightly more than a throw-in at this point. Throw-ins are rarely as young as him and seldom put up numbers like he has in the minors. He has been exposed by the Cubs, but teams are willing to take a leap on the initial trade on the off-chance that the player has not been properly developed.
willie mays hayes' gloves - November 11, 2008
What I would say on that is...
there have been a lot of “toolsy” can’t miss prospects from the Dominican who have famously flamed out in recent years. Why? Because they simply could not adapt to hit major league pitching. Names include former top 5 prospect Alex Escobar and Ruben Mateo. It’s unfair to throw Pie into that category because, of course, each player is his own individual. But the comparisons are apt. I make no apologies for thinking that Felix Pie will never stick in the majors. Not even as a 4th or 5th outfielder type.
MDBNIU - November 11, 2008
He may never make it in the majors. He is still
very much a prospect that has proven nothing in the big leagues, but to rank him as just a throw-in at this point is to under value him. Throw-ins are A-ball types in thier mid-twenties who have never sniffed the big leagues. Pie began the season as the starting CF. I think he would rank slightly above the status of a throw-in. He may eventually end up in that catagory, but the jury is still out. The deliberations are coming to and end, but the jury is still out.
willie mays hayes' gloves - November 11, 2008
I hope you are right
But I’m kinda of afraid the Cubs unwillingness to deal him earlier has had a big negative impact on his trade value…and with the options up we might look kinda desperate to get something, anything for him. I think you guys pretty much know I’m a big Pie fan — so this is not easy to swallow, I disagree with BM on him not sticking in the majors. At this point I wish the kid could go some place where he’ll get a chance to play at the MLB level.
StevenABQ - November 11, 2008
I think you will get your wish. I believe than any deal the Cubs
pull off will involve Pie. Fukudome seems destined for CF and that leaves Pie without a position. It’s apparent that Lou doesn’t feel that Pie is worth the effort, so I believe he will be the next player to leave the organization.
willie mays hayes' gloves - November 11, 2008
What I really wish
Is that we could get some real value for him…in addition to him getting the opportunity. But, like I said, they waited too long and with him on Lou’s list he’s outta here.
StevenABQ - November 11, 2008
Pie=?
Who’d you be willing to receive for Pie?
chilango2 - November 11, 2008
At this point
Its really whoever we can get. Its clear that he is going to be moved. Take any of the legitimate trade ideas being kicked around with Pie, Cedeno, and Marshall. In other words Pie = part of a package deal.
StevenABQ - November 11, 2008
Right, what Pie has going for him most of all is his age.
He’s young. And other teams might feel the same way many of us do – that Felix simply hasn’t been given an adequate chance to prove himself one way or the other. I would think a player with his defensive abilities would – at the very least – “stick” in the major leagues as a fourth outfielder.
daver - November 11, 2008
Whatever they think, his trade value is damaged
bren - November 11, 2008
Yes, I agree.
daver - November 11, 2008
Wrong.
What Felix Pie has going for him isn’t one thing.
1) He’s succeeded at every level where he has had the opportunity to play a full week’s games in a row.
2) He has all the tools.
3) He has a great attitude.
4) He’s shown the ability to learn.
DGU - November 11, 2008
I said "most of all" not "only."
All those things wouldn’t matter as much if he was older. In any case, it seems like we agree on this.
daver - November 11, 2008
What's the difference between Felix Pie's trade value
and Carlos Gonzalez’s?
DGU - November 11, 2008
Gonzalez
has some homerun pop, and even though Pie is strong in the field, apparently Gonzalez has a cannon and a great glove
Grockcubs - November 11, 2008
In Baseball America's 2006 top prospect list
Carlos Gonzalez was #32.
Felix Pie was #27.
Gonzalez’ career line is .242/.273/.361 in 302 consistent ABs.
Pie’s career line is .223/.284/.331 in 260 inconsistent ABs.
Felix Pie’s power is widely discounted here, but Gonzalez’ power is at least as questionable, if not more. Gonzalez also has effort issues and his approach has been getting worse for a while.
Gonzalez was a corner OF who was moved to center just before the D’backs traded him. I’m not finding scouting reports that suggest he’s better than Pie (which doesn’t mean they aren’t there, just that my cursory search did not find any.).
DGU - November 11, 2008
Marshall will be missed.
Not spectacular but able to adjust from starter to middle/long relief fairly well. Not a lot of pitchers can pull that off. Plus, he’s a lefty.
As for getting Millar to loosen up the clubhouse – I thought that’s what Dempster did. How many looseners does a team need? If Millar comes over and Dempster is signed could a loosener feud begin? One group of players feeling they are loosened up best by Millar while the other by Dempster? Factions could form if Rich Hill makes a comeback and attempts to become still a third loosener in the clubhouse.
I’m kidding but I think team chemistry is a fluid thing. For all we know, Millar could come over and rub someone the wrong way. Just because he seemed to gel with everyone in Boston doesn’t mean he’d be a leader everywhere he goes. I’m sure the Cubs didn’t think they were getting a clubhouse changer when they picked up Randall Simon in ‘03 but that’s exactly what they got. You never know where it might come from. Maybe Reed Johnson after being here a season. Maybe Soto will take more of a leadership role. But to bring someone in for the purpose of being “the guy” doesn’t make a lot of sense.
As for Cuban – the fact he might have money issues may play into his not being in the running. But that doesn’t mean Reinsdorf and Selig haven’t made their feelings known to the other owners. The fact that Cuban may find it impossible to raise the money works in their favor, but it doesn’t mean they haven’t worked the phones behind the scenes. One has nothing to do with the other.
the nth - November 11, 2008
Al pointed out more
I don’t think the suggestion is for Millar to come on to “entertain the troops”. He would be able to contribute as a backup outfielder and fill the D Ward pinch hitter role. I think getting someone like Millar is a win-win. You need these guys to fit situational holes and the personality aspect would be a bonus. Demp is probably great at loosening guys up in the bullpen, but I like a guy like Millar in the dugout. But to go along with your question about how many “looseners” would of been nice for a Millar-type during game 1.
StevenABQ - November 11, 2008
Exactly.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
Apparently, a team needs more than one.
Because when Dempster blew up in game one, the entire team got tight and no one could fix it.
It would also help getting a position player, rather than a starting pitcher, to do that, because starting pitchers have specific routines they have to go through on their off days and also on starting days.
FWIW, Millar and Dempster are close friends who spent five years as teammates on the Marlins. Signing Millar would be a signal to Dempster to stay.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
Hypothetical question
And I realize it’s not realistic — that’s why it’s hypothetical.
If there was one roster spot left, and the players available were an affable, “loose clubhouse” .220 hitter, or a jackass that could hit .290 and play every position, which would you want?
Chemistry is important, but it shouldn’t be the first criterion examined.
Shanghai Badger - November 11, 2008
A question like that really can't be answered.
Because you are proposing signing that last guy solely on statistics, and you claim I want to sign the guy strictly for his “loose clubhouse” attitude.
The truth lies somewhere in the middle.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
And the answer is blowing in the wind
Ok, let me try a different way —
If you could quantify it, what weight do you put on the attitude?
Shanghai Badger - November 11, 2008
More than some.
I think a lot of people here — not you, necessarily — would simply put together a roster based on statistics, completely ignoring the human dynamics required to put a successful team of human beings together.
It’s not an exact science — it cannot be quantified.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
I agree that the human factor is important
I guess what I was getting at is, I’m not sure Millar’s got anything left.
Shanghai Badger - November 11, 2008
I think he does.
He drew quite a few walks in 2008 and hit 20 HR. Only his batting average was down.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
ok Al
so lets get this straight, you would be comfortable with a rotation consisting of Z,Lilly,demp,harden,hendrickson,and marquis? I’m sorry but that rotation dont exactly make me real comfortable. I think z and lilly will do their normal. Demp will come back to earth a bit. Harden will be hurt alot. Hendrickson and marquis make me sick.
if hermida’s traded its gonna take a whole lot more than marshall and pie. why is alot of people on here acting as if marshall is that good? I’ve noticed that. he’s a #5 pitcher at best with nothing overpowering. He gets lit up aloooot. Pie is a player that dont know his identity. He wants to be a power hitter but never will. I think he has the tools to be a leadoff hitter but that will probably never happen. He cant hit lefties at all and he’s out of options. if he wasnt on our team we wouldnt want him at all. But because he is I keep reading post like he hasnt been given enough of a chance or it’s all lou’s fault he cant hit. So if you want a hermida, you gotta give up some real talent like a vitters,ceda,etc.
i’m all for a millar in the clubhouse with dempster. can you imagine the side show they will provide??
cubsluver22 - November 11, 2008
Read what I wrote about Hermida.
Now where does it say that I think Marshall and Pie alone could get it done?
Also, last year’s rotation did just fine — and that’s with Harden not totally healthy and Z having, frankly, a mediocre year. Hendrickson (and it doesn’t HAVE to be him, I just threw out a few suggested names) would be a swingman, a reliever who might make an emergency start, not a guy in the rotation full time.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
I'm kind of curious as to the fascination with Hermida
His numbers last year, in what was supposed to be his coming out party, were pretty weak. Worse OPS, in fact, than Fukudome. He looked poised to break out after ‘07, but at this point, he’s taken a serious step backwards IMO.
davidalanu - November 11, 2008
He might have to be a platoon player.
Yet another reason to sign Kevin Millar, too.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
FWIW
Hermida was terrible at home (huge ballpark) and very good on the road. You have to consider that when looking at his numbers. He was Neifi like at home though, which has to concern anyone.
kanderber - November 11, 2008
NEIFI - AUGHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
willie mays hayes' gloves - November 11, 2008
27th out bunts?
N Oakley - November 11, 2008
My bad
Didn’t mean to bring up brutal memories of Neifi, but he’s the first person that always comes to mind when I see a sub 600 OPS.
kanderber - November 11, 2008
Quick! Someone get the BCB defibbrillator!
daver - November 11, 2008
That's OK. I'm OK. I'm OK. NEIFI - AUGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
willie mays hayes' gloves - November 11, 2008
Erm...
…somebody’s using it to try and keep the Cuban deal alive. Can you wait until after Thanksgiving?
znohitter - November 11, 2008
That rotation would be fine
That’s better than most teams. Of course, the question is whether Harden stays healthy. If the Cubs do actually trade for Peavy, you would be looking at Z, Lilly, Peavy, Harden, Marquis/Hendrickson/etc. Maybe better but you have traded everyone else of value so there wouldn’t be much left to improve anywhere else. The people who are wishing for Peavy and Dempster are not looking at the salary numbers. No way does that fit especially next year when Peavy’s salary really goes up.
rlpete - November 11, 2008
Disagree about Sean Marshall.
He had a solid 2008 season as a spot starter/long reliever. Although his durability is still somewhat in question, Sean looks to me like a great option as a No. 4 or 5 starter – and I would guess other teams might feel the same way.
daver - November 11, 2008
My Problem is...
Z is on and off.
lilly is good but not bonafide #1
if we get demp—I think he wins 13-14 games
marquis-sux
harden—is anyone’s guess but mine is he pitches about 125 innings and when he does pitch he taxes our pen most of his starts.
marshall realistically isnt very good. even if he stays healthy he will never win more than 10 games.
you cant go wrong with good pitching and thats why I think a deal for peavy would be great. The stats say he isnt as good away from petco. To which I say #1 pitchers like peavy find a way to bring it when its time. Lets not forget he was on a double A team, so getting pumped up has gotta be a hard thing to do. worse case scenario we have an abundance of starters and we all know pitching talks in any trade, especially at the deadline because their is usally not much available.
none of the available lefty outfielders are exactly great. we can settle for 1 yr stop gaps like a millar and a luke scott. hope for dome to step it up and everyone to stay healthy. but if we do that we gotta have a star studded rotation nevermind what they did last year. we also need a couple lockdown relievers like marmol to get to whomever our closer is.
pitching is a recipe to winning alot of games IMO. I think of it like this— you cant have too much pitching. if a hitter struggles were stuck. if a pitcher with a good track record struggles, their will always be a team out there willing to take them on.
cubsluver22 - November 11, 2008
I disagree on Sean Marshall.
He’s a very different pitcher when healthy than when injured or fatigued. The big problem is that he has tended to fatigue way too quickly to be a starter. If he can get past his durability problems, you are underrating him quite a bit to call him a #5 at best. If he can’t get past the durability problems, he’ll still be a useful ’pen arm.
DGU - November 11, 2008
if bullfrogs had wings……..
cubsluver22 - November 12, 2008
No, this isn't wishcasting
This is being aware of what a player’s problems are. Marshall’s problems (and therefore uses) are not the same as Marquis’ who is very durable. You’ve just written Marshall off – ignoring when he’s been healthy and when he hasn’t.
DGU - November 12, 2008
Jeremiah could fly
ballhawk - November 12, 2008
He was a good friend of mine
Weeghman Park - November 12, 2008
You know he had some mighty fine wine.
willie mays hayes' gloves - November 12, 2008
Joy to the world.
Al Yellon - November 12, 2008
Al, Millar was a great clubhouse presence on the Red Sox
because he was a also very productive player and an important cog in their offense at the time. The combination of the two is how he earned his team’s respect.
Next year’s pine-riding Kevin Millar and his BA in the .220s or .230s and OBP in the .310s isn’t going to command nearly the respect he did on the Boston teams a few years back. I only played baseball up into college but I do know that when you’re batting in the .220s, it’s best to shut up because no one really gives a shit how you feel about anything.
Dempster has the respect of this team because he was a decent closer, had a great year as a starter AND is a clubhouse leader. One doesn’t happen without the other and Millar’s days as a productive offensive player seem to have come to an end.
the nth - November 11, 2008
Remember that Millar played full-time last year.
At his age, his future is as a bench player — he knows it and I think anyone signing him would know it.
I think he could be a useful player playing against certain LHP. No one’s asking him to be a team leader. We would be asking him to be Matt Stairs.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
Plus, he has a ring
which does help him in the clubhouse, regardless of his BA. Millar is widely respected around baseball (except by the hard-liners in the MLBPA), and has helped the clubhouses of Florida, Boston and Baltimore.
As long as Millar knew his role, I think he’d be a quality pick up for the Cubs.
Bill Potter - November 11, 2008
Dempster Discount?
Paul Sullivan has an interesting take in the Trib about how the Peavy negotiations could impact any “discount” Dempster is willing to give…
I think it is an interesting point to consider, especially for people saying that Demp WILL resign…I hope he does…
Linky
PurpleLineToWrigley - November 11, 2008
Pure speculation on Sullivan's part.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
Agreed.
That article smacked of “Well, there hasn’t been a Peavy article for a while, but there’s nothing new to write about, so, hmmm….”
DGU - November 11, 2008
So in other words, he's doing his job?
kanderber - November 11, 2008
I think that alone says that $64 million will go to one of those guys. Whoever signs first will bump the other out.
willie mays hayes' gloves - November 11, 2008
He's at it again
Planting information, formalizing hearsay and confusing more than enlightening.
Outside the Tribsters, nobody knows what will happen just yet. Don’t believe what Sullivan writes.
chilango2 - November 11, 2008
I am not taking it as the end-all-be-all.
I think that is might be a factor that could come into play with any player. And I still think Demp will end up here, FWIW. I don’t know if I would call it hearsay though haha…
PurpleLineToWrigley - November 11, 2008
Point taken
However, I believe Sullivan has been reading this and other blogs, and creating an amalgam of all the rumors we report—or come up with on our own—passing them as insider information.
I, too, think Dempster will return, at the tune of $45 million for four years.
chilango2 - November 11, 2008
I think it might have to be a bit more than that...
… and I’d make the fourth year a mutual option.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
4 years?
Now I need the de-frib. Got paddles?
San Diego Smooth Jazz Man - November 12, 2008
The answer to Sullivan's questions is, of course,
that Peavy is younger and has a much longer history of success, and thus should command more money than Dempster.
davidalanu - November 11, 2008
A fair point, but...
Dempster surely realizes that he’s not worth Jake Peavy money.
kanderber - November 11, 2008
If the Cubs re-sign Demp,
I don’t understand why they would attempt to get Peavy. Maybe get Peavy if they didn’t exercise Harden’s option, btw I’m not excited they have Harden back, a whole year of his story is going to get very old.
I understand that having a guy like Peavy can’t hurt, but as Al points out he isn’t great on the road. I don’t think pitching was the main reason the Cubs bombed in the playoffs, as Lou has said, having left handed power bats are necessary in the playoffs.
It is a very talented team, 97 wins makes that obvious, but Hendry needs to worry more about making the puzzle fit correctly. That starts with deciding as an orginization what they are doing with Fukudome, a platoon with Fuku and Johnson in CF will not work if Lou treats Fuku as he did Eyre.
I don’t have all the answers but I think starting with pitching is not what this team needs.
slocs55 - November 11, 2008
"Why get Peavy?"
Um, ‘cause Peavy’s better than everyone in the Cubs rotation not named “Harden”?
DGU - November 11, 2008
Does that mean Peavy is going to only get 100 plus innings
and be no help in the post season ? Cause that is what we really need.
Doggie Stalker - November 11, 2008
Take it up with the manager.
DGU - November 11, 2008
Take it up with the manager ?
So Lou wanted him to skip starts and not pitch well in the post season.Jeez I think Lou is a bad manager but not that
bad. It was Lou’s idea that he could only make 3 starts in sept and give up 3 runs in 4.1 innings in the post season ?
Doggie Stalker - November 11, 2008
Peavy's home and road splits
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?c_id=sd&playerID=408241&statType=2
Peavy is an ace at Petco and average on the road. He would be a nice addition, but I would bet Lilly would have a comparable year to Peavy if the Cubs signed the Padres pitcher.
We know Dempster didn’t pitch great in the postseason, but it wasn’t the main reason the Cubs bombed in the playoffs. If the Cubs resign Demp, there are a lot more pressing issues to deal with than getting another starter. That’s why I said, why sign Peavy.
slocs55 - November 12, 2008
Exactly.
Al Yellon - November 12, 2008
Oh, those splits are exactly predictive of the future, huh?
Al – if you get your wish and the Cubs miss Peavy – there should be no complaining from you when Jim takes all his trade chips back to Andy McPhail and we play the Brian Roberts game for the rest of the off-season. If we don’t trade for Peavy, what is Jim going to trade for?
Oh, and, there is absolutely no way Lilly has a comparative year to Peavy in the same park.
DGU - November 12, 2008
Well, I'm not sure who Hendry might trade for.
But it doesn’t HAVE to be Peavy or Roberts only, does it?
Al Yellon - November 12, 2008
No, but we don't know of too many impact players available.
I’d rather trade for a top player than for two lesser players.
DGU - November 12, 2008
Like I said,
having Peavy would be great if the Cubs number 1 need was starting pitching, I don’t think it is IF they resign Demp. Peavy’s splits, coupled with his arm issues make him a guy I wouldn’t want to pay an ace type contract. I think by the end of his current deal he will be making near $18 million, another backloaded contract is not what the Cubs need.
I still think if the Cubs signed Peavy, the would be lucky if he won 17 games like the bulldog Ted Lilly.
slocs55 - November 13, 2008
Why are we so worried about Peavy
out of Petco? Of course his stats are a bit skewed at Petco. So what? Guys like Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale played in the old Dodger Stadium, when it was REALLY a pitchers park. I’d bet their road stats were not as good. Would you not have traded for them in 1965? (Sorry, kids — look ’em up)
The Cubs were a dominant home team last year in a so-called hitters park. Lilly gave up some dingers at Wrigley, you might recall. Still, he was a force for the Cubs. And, we all know the wind blows in half the time, anyway, so the ‘hitters’ park is a misnomer.
Fear about Peavy’s ‘road’ reacord is misplaced.
San Diego Smooth Jazz Man - November 12, 2008
I'll add...
…in April and May, Wrigley can be the best pitcher’s park in baseball. When it is chilly and the wind is coming from the North, you need a canon to get the ball out of there.
MPH73 - November 12, 2008
Rec'd
and let this put an end to the overblown home/road splits.
DGU - November 12, 2008
I hope to see Angel Guzman fill Howry's spot
cubswynn - November 11, 2008
+1
daver - November 11, 2008
He is a power pitcher, right guys?
PurpleLineToWrigley - November 11, 2008
Indubitably.
daver - November 11, 2008
you know I love power pitchers
eff the Greg Maddux types!!!
cubswynn - November 11, 2008
He certainly looked good when he pitched at the end of the season
Healthy arm with some movement on the ball. In fact, one of the announcers mistakenly called him Marmol. Actually that might have been someone on this blog, but in any event, he looked good and healthy. And his initials are not B.H. so he’s got that going for him.
Weeghman Park - November 11, 2008
He also has a long list of injuries going for him
I’m not counting on Guzman for anything right now. Let’s see if he makes it through Spring Training first.
rlpete - November 11, 2008
Of course.
I don’t think anyone is counting on him, rather just hoping….
cubswynn - November 11, 2008
He's a good pitcher, but...
seems like all the Cubs pitchers have a big “but”
Weeghman Park - November 11, 2008
thats
what worries me
cubsluver22 - November 11, 2008
Damn deep-dish pizza.
daver - November 11, 2008
I like big butts and I cannot lie!
willie mays hayes' gloves - November 11, 2008
hee
sue369 - November 11, 2008
You other brothers can't deny
when a girl walks in with an itty-bitty waist and a round thing in your face, you get…..
Feelings,
It’s fun to stay at the YMCA…
and so on….
Weeghman Park - November 11, 2008
Red beans and rice did miss her!
daver - November 11, 2008
I just hope to see him healthy for a whole season.
DGU - November 11, 2008
Long relief problem solved FOR FREE!
Why not the Shark? I think he is a great young prospect who needs more experience and having him available for spot starting and the long relief role would be great for him. True, he doesn’t pitch on a regular basis but he does get to come in for chunks of time and is still on the major league roster.
I find it hard to believe that people like Freddy Garcia or Randy Wolf will want to o from a starting role to a long relief role, and even if they do, it’s going to cost the Cubs much more than they are going to want to pay
Musicdude10 - November 11, 2008
Carlos Gonzalez
I mentioned this in another thread, but it’s pretty buried so I thought I mention it here too.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8782314/Rockies-not-done-dealing-after-Holliday-trade?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49
He is a lefty that can play any outfield position. I’m surprised the Rox would turn around and deal him, but I wouldn’t mind the Cubs making a move for him. I wonder what it would take…
Cubinator - November 11, 2008
What's the difference between Carlos Gonzalez and Felix Pie?
The answer – Gonzalez has looked worse at the ML level in 50 more PAs than Pie.
DGU - November 11, 2008
I'm fine with Hermida
My guess is that they’d want Castillo because they are looking for a young catcher.
As for Carlos Gonzalez, I think they’ll be shopping him for SP. That was the whole befuddling thing about the Holliday trade at first, as Holliday was their best chip to land starting pitching upside. Just a guess, though.
toonsterwu - November 11, 2008
Guzman/Guzman
I read that the Cubs are inquiring about Nate Mclouth and the Pirates want a power arm in return. As with any of these outfielders there is the question of where/when they will play, but seeing the Pirates as much as we did last year, I think we all can admit that Mclouth was the bright spot on a very dismal team. He seems to solve both the lead off and left handed power problems. Why wouldn’t the pirates take a package of Guzman or others. Any thoughts?
KButler - November 11, 2008
Guzman's injury history is a major deterrant
Pittsburgh would probably want Marmol or Samardzija, to start talks, if they’re looking at power arms in the Cubs system.
Bill Potter - November 11, 2008
Very True.
I wonder if Jose Ascanio or Jose Ceda would be appealing to them. I know its a long shot, I simply like Mclouth a lot and he fills so many needs for this cubs team.
KButler - November 11, 2008
It's a very long shot
but it’d be worth a call to Pittsburgh. I’m not sure anyone over there isn’t untradeable.
Ascanio and/or Ceda would be appealing, but they’d probably only be parts of any trade. Pittsburgh does have a glut of outfielders in their system though, and McLouth may expendable solely because Andrew McCutchen will be ready to play for them by the middle of next year.
Even then, if I were Pittsburgh, I’d slide McLouth to one of the corner OF spots.
Bill Potter - November 11, 2008
Well considering McLouth has less than 4 years of service
you will have to make a deal worth it to Pittsburgh. Ascanio was pretty bad last year. Ceda would interest them for a start.
rlpete - November 11, 2008
Love McLouth
And it would be terrific if he were our CF/Leadoff man next year. Though, I gotta believe that this is nothing more than a pipe dream.
BMoney79 - November 11, 2008
*CF should be
RF
BMoney79 - November 11, 2008
Sorry to double up if this has been covered somewhere else on BCB. I noticed that Buster Olney commented on Bobby Abreu being arbitration eligible this offseason.
Olney wrote:
From the money perspective, I would imagine that the Cubs would have a heck of a time adding on that kind of pay-roll, but purely on performance level and needs, it’s fun to think about. Particularly since Abreu would be returning to the more hitter friendly NL…
CubsWin!Oregon - November 11, 2008
Oops. Forgot a subject line...
Argh.
CubsWin!Oregon - November 11, 2008
I think the Cubs have money to spend
and Abreu is an option. He adds speed and a bat Lou can put anywhere in the first 5 lineup spots. I don’t like Abreu’s defense, but there are worse options.
DGU - November 11, 2008
Abreu remains predestined to re-up with the Yankees
He likes wearing the pinstripes and they aren’t bashful about handing over monster dough.
MDBNIU - November 11, 2008
What evidence do you have...
…. that the Cubs have enough salary room to dump $17 million on a possibly aging outfielder?
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
Oh, I've got no hard evidence.
But I’ve read rumors in more than one place suggesting the Cubs had interest in all sorts of high-ticket players from Abreu to Furcal to even CC. Sure, they could ALL be making it up.
Do you have evidence that the Cubs are going to stick at 130? Yesterday someone on here linked me to something (can’t find it now) that suggested they’d go to 150.
DGU - November 11, 2008
That just doesn't seem logical in today's economy.
It’d help bring some extra players in, though.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
Truth be told -
I don’t think any of us know what the Cubs will spend and that’s not a bad strategy – no need for Hendry to telegraph too much.
DGU - November 11, 2008
This will be an interesting off-season to watch.
Al, my impression of the Cubs plans is different than yours. Of course, I have no insider access and respect your view here, but, for example, I will not be surprised at all if by this time next week Rafael Furcal is our new SS.
DGU - November 11, 2008
Shortstop isn't on the Cub radarscope
Hendry and Piniella are quite content with Ryan Theriot. I for one agree with them.
MDBNIU - November 11, 2008
We're both on record multiple times
so we’ll see what happens.
DGU - November 11, 2008
If Furcal is our new SS, Theriot is our new 2b
With DeRosa moving to RF. Unless of course Theriot is shipped to the Padres in the Peavy deal. But Theriot will be starting for somebody next year. You don’t hit like he did last season, and lose your starting job. I just wanted to remind some on this board, who seem to forget the guy hit 307 with a 387 OBP in almost 150 games. I know a few like to pretend it never happen(or bring up lack of power or defense issues), and can’t accept it. But Theriot will be a everyday player going into next season, and there’s no scenario that has him not starting for somebody next year.
cubsfan25 - November 12, 2008
Yep
Theriot is today what Scott Podsednik was in 2003. Someone, somewhere will make a big mistake on Theriot. Let’s just hope it’s not the Cubs.
DGU - November 12, 2008
Kevin Milliar vs Lou Pinella
I agree with a strong majority of what Al has to say about the Cubs… but I don’t get the Kevin Millar argument.
The Cubs’ problems with the post season don’t get solved by adding a .717 OPS right handed first basement / pinch hitter… regardless of how entertaining the guy may be.
The tension and freeze-up that the Cubs had in the playoffs do not get solved by adding entertainment.
The tension and freeze-ups get solved from the top with strong leadership that instills confidence. That is what a leader should be doing during the critical moments. Further, they should be instilling this confidence strongly enough that the player-leaders on the team (yes they are there) help carry the torch for him.
Lou manages to do this well in the regular season but for two years running has not been able to do it in the post season.
Instilling confidence does not mean line-up and rotation shake-ups days before the big games. It means keeping a steady hand on the wheel of the ship that got you to the playoffs and keeping the club alert, ready, and loose.
That is the DEFINITION of a GOOD LEADER. No club clowns needed.
otherones - November 11, 2008
Rec'd
DGU - November 11, 2008
I happen to agree with you...
… that Lou didn’t manage this team very well down the stretch. However, in the absence of that sort of thing, it couldn’t hurt to have a player who helps keep everyone loose.
Kevin Millar is still a decent choice for a RH-hitting bench player. I doubt he’d cost very much. Signing him might insure keeping Ryan Dempster, since the two are close friends. This is what I mean when I say that there are factors beyond statistics that must be taken into account. We aren’t dealing with spreadsheets here, we are dealing with human beings with real lives.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
This is all very dramatically stated...
…but I don’t see Lou as being the kind of manager who can keep a team “loose.” Mark DeRosa has said something along the lines of, “Playing for Lou is like playing for your Dad.”
Maybe there are some managers who are good at relaxing their teams, but I don’t think Lou is one of them – during the regular season or the postseason. That’s not to say he doesn’t have strong leadership skills, because I think he does. But he can’t do it all. So I don’t disagree with Al that – maybe – having a devil-may-care veteran like Millar around might help take the edge of when the pressure ramps up to postseason levels.
daver - November 11, 2008
Exactly.
Al Yellon - November 11, 2008
Depends on "loose"
Depends on what we mean by “loose”. Lou isn’t the type of manager that will get the players to be care-free idiots. * cough * Save that for toothpick-chewing habit-having mangers * cough *
When Lou uses the word “swagger”, I have a good idea of what he is talking about. He is talking about being confident AND loose. We have seen him instill and foster “swagger” in the regular season.
If Millar comes cheap and increases our chances at Dempster: it has little downside.
To be fair, my argument is pointed more towards Lou’s post-season management of the Cubs than it is against Millar. My take is that Lou needs to find “swagger” for the post-season Cubs the way he does in the regular season. Period. Adding Millar, however entertaining, doesn’t solve that problem.
The good leaders I’ve worked with and been around get their team calm and confident during the “big time”. Bad leaders allow their team to be afraid and panic-y (i.e. 2007 Deer-In-Headlights Post-Season Cubs)
otherones - November 11, 2008
Fair enough but...
…I think this is another instance in which the claustrophobic nature of the postseason – especially the NLDS – comes into play. It doesn’t seem like there’s much time to instill or foster swagger. The team either has it going in or doesn’t.
And even though I’m absolutely open to hearing criticism about Lou, I’m still not sure there’s anything more he could have done to keep the team from playing tight or panicking. Well, maybe he could have pulled Dempster earlier in Game One. And maybe he could have paid Z a visit after those horrible defensive plays in Game Two. (He didn’t do this, did he?)
OK, now I’m contradicting myself. I guess if the Cubs do manage to make the postseason again next year, I would like to see Lou be a little more proactive when things start to go awry. I’m not sure whether that’s his style, though.
daver - November 12, 2008
Oddly enough...
… it was his “style”, if you will, in the 2000 ALDS for Seattle vs. the White Sox. He did several outside-the-box things in that series and totally outmanaged Jerry Manuel.
What happened to him in the seven years since?
Al Yellon - November 12, 2008
Hemmroids? Iritable Bowl Syndrome? Something has changed. Usually as guys get older,
the loosen up. They know they don’t have to worry about the next job, so they don’t give a shit. (See Jack McKeon)
willie mays hayes' gloves - November 12, 2008
Well, at the risk of being ageist...
…he’s admitted to having more than a few “senior moments.”
daver - November 12, 2008
If you look at some of the most...
…successful managers/coaches in sports, their philosophy was to create “an edge” around the club, as opposed to doing all they can to make the players feel relaxed. We saw what a guy who concentrates on relaxing his team does in Baker, and his clubs fell asleep, because they didn’t have enouph guys to challenge their teamates to improve. Baker wasn’t going to do it, so it has to come from somewhere. I’ll also add this, for every team that has a laid back manager and they win, that team also has 2-3 players who take on the role of getting in other players faces and challenging them. Most athletes (when left on their own), will not get the maximum out of their capabilities unless challenged/pushed to raise their game. All championship teams have this element in play, whether it comes from the manager or players.
MPH73 - November 12, 2008
Creating an edge
is not mutually exclusive with showing confidence in players based on their abilities.
DGU - November 12, 2008
What did Piniella do...
…to crater the confidence levels of Dempster, Ramirez, Soriano or other core players who didn’t perform in 07 and 08? With Dempster, he stayed with him when he was struggling, and probably did that because Dempster earned that as his horse throughout the year.
With Piniella and most managers, one of the best ways to show confidence in a player is to put them on the lineup card and trusting them to get the job done. If its true that most of these guys need to be put up on a pedestal everyday to feel confident (after having long successful careers), good luck finding the right manager that gets them in exactly the right frame of mind to produce.
This all comes down to the same pattern; one manager coddles players too much and the next guy doesn’t coddle them enouph. You can keep trying to find a new manager till the cows come home, but teams don’t win without the right mix of players that have the ability to take it upon themselves to produce.
MPH73 - November 12, 2008
This isn't about coddling. It's about recognizing - you've got these players, they aren't leaving, you might as well show confidence in them.
Oneri Fleita mentioned this the other day in a radio interview about struggling prospects – he said, if you don’t show confidence in them and their abilities, some of them will just wither. You have to remain optimistic.
But there’s also a difference between showing confidence in guys like Ramirez and Soriano – who’ve proved it in the past and in Dempster and Dome who haven’t proved it yet. The Cubs trusted Demp when others were saying he’d be worse than Marquis. Demp rewarded the Cubs, up until that last game where he just didn’t have it. That happens. But Demp’s regular season performance is exactly what I’m talking about. And there are some guys Lou gives that confidence to – Demp and Howry spring to mind and there are guys he doesn’t.
Of course, some people will be quick to say – “Well those guys don’t deserve it and their failure proves it.” Sure – there are going to be failures who make their manager’s expressed confidence look bad. A good manager, a manager who puts the team over his reputation, is willing to look bad for his players, because Dome was sticking on roster all of 2008 no matter what. And if Lou came to believe Dome couldn’t cut it – he may well be right – but showing that lack of confidence in public does not help Dome maybe somehow beat the odds and succeed the way Dempster did.
DGU - November 12, 2008
IMO...
…there is way too much weight placed on what buttons Piniella pushed or didn’t push to get the best results from his players. Also, no manager can possibly push all the right buttons, because their style is never going to be the perfect fit for every player on the team. Folks are spinning their wheels on this because they want to believe there is an easy explanation (and finger to point) as to why the club cratered when it mattered most. The club had several poor performances from their best players, and I tend to think it is quite a reach to blame that on Piniella’s style of managing.
Regardless of how the Cubs do in the next couple of years, they are headed for a time when the bulk of this core group is going to be gone and a new core will need to be assembled. How much talent will be available from the system to rebuild the core? How much money will need to be spent on FA’s to add talent etc. etc. are all questions that will be upon whoever is running the show in a couple of years.
I don’t have a crystal ball, but I can see a scenerio (in 3-4 years) where Cub fans are more appreciative of the positives Piniella brought during his time here, and they could also better realize just how much the poor record of developing their own players has put the club in a difficult spot.
MPH73 - November 12, 2008
I agree with that.
Every word.
DGU - November 12, 2008
Rec'd
I totally agree. Teflon Lou needs to accept at least a modicum of responsibility for the twin melt-downs.
DeRoMyHero - November 11, 2008
Disagree on blaming Piniella...
…the only shakeup Piniella did was to insert Fukudome in the lineup for the post-season. If that derailed this team’s confidence, then please get some different players because you will never win with a team that has that fragile a psychy. Shit happens during a season and players (as a group) need to be able to perform through turmoil or relaxed times, and they shouldn’t have to go running to their manager for several pats on the back to get in the right frame of mind. Managers set the tone of a club, but you still need a core group of players that other players look to as leaders, because peer leadership is crucial in getting the most out of a club.
Piniella knew how a control pitcher like Lowe would feast on having so many right handed hitters to face and getting in a nice groove. To offset this, he put Fukudome in the 2 hole to give him a different look and hoping it would get him out of the rythym of pounding the same side of the plate. It didn’t work, but it certainly should not have cratered the other 7 guys in the lineup.
I don’t know, maybe we need to bring Dusty Baker back so he pat everyone on the back and tell them how great they are. Please folks, baseball players have performed well under far worse conditions and somtimes, you need to shuffle the deck a bit, to get the right mix that has the intestinal fortitude to step up.
MPH73 - November 12, 2008
It wasn't that so much as...
… the way he played the last week of the season, almost like spring training games. I think the team lost some of its “swagger”, if you will, that week. The pitching staff used in the regular season’s last game, against a team fighting for its playoff life, was a joke.
Then, in game one, he didn’t have Ted Lilly (who had three more days off before his scheduled start in game 4) ready to go when Dempster was losing his command.
While the players didn’t perform, I also believe that Lou didn’t push the right buttons.
Al Yellon - November 12, 2008
I'll say again...
…a team shouldn’t need “perfect conditions” to play at a high level, and it certainly seems like both the 07 and 08 playoff performances are loaded with excuses of why the team was not ready to play.
IMO, too much rest, changing one guy in the lineup etc. etc., is not a valid reason for a club to completely crater in the post-season. Resting guys has been a practice of successful teams the clinch early for a long long time, and SHOULD NOT have been a reason the club fell as hard as it did. We are talking about playoff baseball, and it should not be a difficult task for players to get themselves ready for that atmosphere. Also, if your club is so reliant on outside forces (other than themselves and their teamates) getting them mentally ready to perform in the playoffs, you need to asses the makeup of your club.
Lastly, believe it or not, some players respond to leadership methods from teamates more than they do their coach and that is why you need some element of (screw all this shit, lets go play ball) approach coming from within the 25 man roster.
MPH73 - November 12, 2008
You're right...
… it shouldn’t have been a reason, but apparently, it was. I agree with you regarding the final paragraph you wrote above. That’s exactly why they need Kevin Millar (or someone like him). They really didn’t have anyone like that — save Dempster — and when he blew up, that took the rest of the team with them.
Al Yellon - November 12, 2008
I will just add this,
I finally had the nerve yesterday to listen to Lou’s podcast with some WGN guy I can never remember the name of that I think was the first one right after the NLDS debacle and the only thing he said that sounded self-critical was not having gotten Lilly into a game. His tone seemed like he was as shocked about the team performance as anyone, almost to a point of disbelief, and I think he got a little deer-in-the-headlighted in the moment which is surprising given his experience as a player and manager.
Everyone owns a piece of that disaster.
Weeghman Park - November 12, 2008
Agreed.
Glad he acknowledges his lack of use of Lilly as being a problem.
Al Yellon - November 12, 2008
Raul Ibanez
Am I the only one around here who thinks he has strong chance to become a Cub? The pool of left-handed hitting run producers who play outfield on the market and potentially available in trade is limited. Right? Seems to me Hendry and Sweet Lou have infatuation for Ibanez. My problem with Ibanez is that he was a full time DH a few years ago and we would be asking him to play the tough right field in Wrigley. Plus he is 36 years old which is not exactly in line with the stated mission to get younger and more athletic.
What do others think? Am I reading too much into Ibanez and the Cubs?
MDBNIU - November 11, 2008
No, sadly I believe you are dead on.
My concern is not his age per se, but that when younger he was a butcher in the field. His age becomes a concern when considering players don’t usually get better in the field with age.
I just can’t believe Lou would be infatuated with a player that was his “Felix Pie” years ago.
N Oakley - November 11, 2008
Ibanez's name has been in the mix from the get-go.
But, as you mention, he’s not young or particularly athletic.
daver - November 11, 2008
I think you are right the Cubs are looking at him.
There’s one exception to what you wrote – I don’t know why Lou would be infatuated with Ibanez. Ibanez withered under his last stint playing for Lou.
Let’s say this about Raul Ibanez – he’s, by all accounts, a nice guy.
DGU - November 11, 2008
Unfortunately, I believe you are correct.
DeRoMyHero - November 11, 2008
Listening
to New York radio and John Heyman on WFAN out of New York, they are confident that he will be a Met. No more Moses Alou. For what it is worth, of course this just talk.
Grockcubs - November 11, 2008
I hope that you are correct.
DeRoMyHero - November 11, 2008
Omar Minaya has fascination with ancient Latino players
I wouldn’t be bummed out if he nabbed Raul Ibanez.
MDBNIU - November 11, 2008
Tweaking is all that's needed
if all you want to do is to win the division, make the playoffs. Then, go 3-and-out once again. If you’re happy with that, then, sure, just tweak a little. If you’re like me, however, and really want to win it all, and are embarrassed by the way we played in the playoffs, then something more is required. You need to chnagr the mix, which Jim and Lou apprently aren’t willing to do. That’s why the Cubs will continue to be compettitve, but never win it all.
rememberthecoop - November 11, 2008
I dont think
its a matter of not willing as it is we are pretty limited to what we can do. reason being a big majority of this team is locked up and most of them are immovable. That also leaves the payroll pretty close to maxed out.
cubsluver22 - November 12, 2008
That's a rather bold statement.
On what basis do you say Jim and Lou “aren’t willing to change the mix”? Are you saying you want to blow up a 97-win team?
The team was good enough to blow through just about everyone for six months. What is needed is to figure out why it failed once the calendar turned to October.
I see no evidence that managment isn’t “willing” to do that.
Al Yellon - November 12, 2008
OK, I'll bite.
What exactly is the “something more” that’s required? Should the Phillies have done “something more” after getting swept out of the postseason in ’07?
daver - November 12, 2008
They did.
Among other things, they acquired Matt Stairs, who didn’t produce much on the field, but I think helped loosen up the clubhouse.
The value of that cannot be overrated.
Al Yellon - November 12, 2008
Yeah, but I'd consider that a "tweak"...
..rather than this mysterious overhaul that rememberthecoop is so coyly referring to.
daver - November 12, 2008
Oh, I agree with that, absolutely.
Al Yellon - November 12, 2008
One playoff sweep can be chalked up...
…to experience, but when you have two in a row (with real poor performances), that is when you need to look hard at certain things. Also, I didn’t watch the phils games last year, but I doubt they played as shitty as the Cubs did in 07 or certainly as bad as the 08 debacle.
I said going into the playoffs, that I thought both the Phils and Cubs losses in 07 would motivate them to perform better in 08. I was right about the Phils, but the Cubs didn’t have what was necessary to be motivated by the 07 embarassement. I guess you can say Piniella is at fault, but I disagree. If I was a player on that 07 team that got swept, damned if I’m not going to be in a frame of mind to show that was a fluke and frankly, they shouldn’t need any help doing that, if they have enouph internal pride and motivation.
MPH73 - November 12, 2008
The Phillies got outscored 16-8 in 2007 by the Rockies.
Not too far off from the Cubs’ 20-6 deficit.
Al Yellon - November 12, 2008
Hermida - Olsen
I watch the Marlins a lot ….. living in FL most of the year…..We Do Not Want …. Hermida big loop in his swing, can’t handle high heat…. This is a little bit better Corey…..thats all.
the Nats stole Olsen thats the guy we should have grabbed .
!
nimblenikelfoos - November 12, 2008
Olsen's great, until...
… he has one of his little tantrums, or gets arrested again. No thanks.
Al Yellon - November 12, 2008
ibanez
if you,ll dorop this kind of money on an aging dh type then just get dunn.end of story.
NOMAR - November 15, 2008
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