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The Very Last Thing I Will Ever Post On Jake Peavy (Or Not)

Barry Rozner weighs in on the Peavy mess, with a convoluted trade scheme that made my jaw drop lower and lower with each succeeding paragraph.

I'll spare you reading it if you don't want to by saying that the summary of all the players involved in Rozner's fantasy would be something like this:

Cubs get: Jake Peavy and Brian Giles

Padres get: Jason Marquis, Sean Marshall, Felix Pie, Josh Vitters, Ronny Cedeno, Jose Ascanio, Mike Fontenot and Sandy Koufax (OK, yes, I made that last part up).

Besides the fact that Giles isn't leaving San Diego and that the Padres would have little use for Marquis and that Vitters is really the one and only blue-chip prospect the Cubs have, we have the little matter of Lou stating the other day that the Cubs aren't looking for starting pitching any more. And as we have been discussing in various threads over the last couple of days, what Lou wants, Lou generally gets.

Usually Mike Downey, Phil Rogers or Rick Morrissey would be in contention for writing the dumbest Chicago newspaper sports column of the month. But Barry, you win. This is nonsense. Book it: Jake Peavy and Brian Giles will not be wearing blue pinstripes in 2009.

And with that, goodnight. And Happy Thanksgiving.

0 recs  |  92 comments

Comments

is there a reason why you get so mad at "a convoluted trade scheme"

if its so crazy then why even post about it. But i don’t understand you not wanting the team to improve with Peavy. Even if it takes 2 months, who cares? It’s not like it’s wearing and tearing on you. It’s baseball.

Exactly

It’s pretty ridiculous that Al is so upset about all of this. Just because ‘Deep Goat’ didn’t inform him of anything, he assumes that it isn’t legit. Even if it isn’t legit, why not accept that people are going to talk about it.

Hearing about it and how I hear about it has nothing to do with it.

If this deal were something that would have helped the Cubs, it’d have been done already. Personally, as I have posted before, I’m not convinced that Jake Peavy would be as dominant a starter without having the benefit of Petco as his home park.

Look at his home/road splits; I have posted them several times but now you can look them up.

I’m tired of Towers’ constant posturing and breathless updates and trying to do this trade in the media. I’m guessing Jim Hendry is sick of it too.

It's one thing to argue Peavy wouldn't be an upgrade on Dempster

It’s a whole other thing to argue from Peavy’s splits that he wouldn’t be an upgrade on Marquis.

If the goal is to win in 2009, upgrading Marquis to Peavy for 1.5 M is a no-brainer. Now the rest of the cost – the trade cost – could make the deal less worth making, but seriously – how can you say adding Peavy wouldn’t help the Cubs? Rozner’s deal may be unrealistic, but it absolutely, unarguably helps the Cubs in 2009.

Yes, we all know that you’re peeved at Peavy prattle, but I cannot imagine Jim Hendry being anything but pleased to have GM out there continually saying the Cubs might get a Cy Young pitcher, maybe even doing all the legwork for you to get a third team interested in your tradeable assets.

I agree with you...

…getting a guy like Peavy clearly upgrades your starting pitching, no question. The issue really comes down to what would acquiring him do in regards to being able to upgrade other areas that need upgrading?

If by chance, the Cubs were to acquire Peavy, it would mean Hendry either has more money to spend than we think, or he does not feel any of the LH hitter options are worth the money or the players they would take to acquire. It’s also possible they would go with a “kick ass” starting staff and bank on that strength allowing them to win their share of games without acquiring an outside LH stick. They could be thinking about seeing if an internal candidate could step up, or address that issue at the break if necessary.

IMO, if they were to acquire Peavy, it probably means there is a good chance one of their name players could be traded to free up some dough.

That could be.

The BIG question is – when Cubs rumors talk about acquiring Ibanez or Furcal, both around 10-12 M (we’ll guess), assuming those rumors reflect real Cub planning, does that planning require first dumping Marquis?

Does it require dumping Marquis AND most of the arb eligible guys?

Does it require dumping Marquis AND another name player?

Or is that what Jim can do, right now w/o dumping anyone?

If you’re right that Peavy requires dumping Marquis plus a real marquee name, then it would be very odd for Kevin Towers to be organizing the “three way trade.” I mean, is Kevin Towers going to call Anaheim and say, “What would you give me for Soriano?”

All that said, Brian Giles is the best option in terms of LHsock+defense v. cost per dollar outside of hoping a Hermida/Kubel/Teahen pulls through. So, yes, he’s unlikely for all the reasons we’ve mentioned, but I think he’d also be near the top of my wish list.

There are a lot of questions here...

…if Hendry is going hard after Peavy, especially after signing Dempster. IMO, it would have to mean Hendry has a high degree of confidence he can free up some money to address either the leadoff hole or LH power bat. Maybe Marquis would be part of the Peavy deal, or Hendry has another taker ready to go as soon as Peavy is officially a Cub. The possibilities are many, and this could go in a lot of different directions.

I read this a little differently

I saw it was Fontenot or Ascanio as a substitute if they didn’t want Cedeno or another alright guy. Regardless I feel like the reason people get so sour on these trades is because of the hype surrounding it.

apparently Neifi's old jockstrap is still in the clubhouse

you can throw that in as well

I bought a game-used batting helmet a few years ago at spring training...

…how much for a Perez jockstrap?

I mean…if someone was to inquire…not as if…it’s me that’s inquiring…yeah.

Dan

From the end of that previous JP post...I stated

Until A deal is announced that Peavy is headed — somewhere…to say that the Cubs are no longer after him — and he isn’t coming to Chicago…well, that’s just too premature.

I don’t care what Lou mumbles in a press conference. Lou doesn’t make the deals. This story could play out all winter.

Of course…unless….Deep Goat…..has proclaimed it so!!

Lou's actions are what matters...

…and sometimes he spews stuff just to say something. He also could be denying the Peavy thing as a purposeful ploy to play the game with the Pads.

That doesn't sound like Lou's style to me.
In general...

…I would agree, but I’ll add this – I think Lou is a more complex personality than most make him out to be and I’ll leave it at that.

All I’m saying is this; if Hendry is legit in pursuing Peavy, he has a reason to and I would doubt that Lou is not involved in that. I also don’t buy recent quotes from Piniella that he hasn’t spoken to Hendry much in the last 30 days etc. etc.. That is not Hendry’s style, and I doubt he would make such a big move without giving Piniella some heads up as to what he is thinking. It’s possible that Hendry and Piniella don’t agree on how hard to pursue Peavy as well, and if Hendry feels it is the right move, he should do what he thinks is right. In the end, I would imagine Hendry understands the other needs lingering out there, and I am sure he has a plan to address those if he does dedicate resources to Peavy, it just may not be something that is as straightforward as most would think.

I agree at every point.

There has to be a significant amount of discussion going on as they juggle different scenarios – things like, but probably not exactly: Furcal+Hermida v. Peavy+Teahen v. just Abreu. It seems to me that there are a lot of different scenarios on the table this off-season.

Nonsense trade

I’ll never forget sitting in the bleachers a few years ago for a Padre’s game. I hadn’t been to a major league game in almost a decade and I was looking at Giles and couldn’t believe how muscular he was. Hmm, he sure has gotten “shrinky” lately. No thanks, wouldn’t want him. And, I surely wouldn’t give up Vitters for an aging, creaky outfielder, and a big money pitcher. Not with all the other throw-ins. This is the kind of stuff that gets spun around the internet without any basis that is maddening. Hendry should be run out of town if he made a deal constructed like this one.

HIm and Marcus both

Both were huge. Marcus out of baseball and Brian hits about 11 HR’s a year. Understand he plays in a monster yard, but he does play 81 on the road.

I wish this trade would just go away

It won’t happen because
1. We don’t have the payroll to afford Peavy and legit lefty hitter. (I think this payroll thing is bull, but I also understand the economic issues and ownership questions)
2. We don’t have the prospects to afford Peavy and I don’t know if we can find the third team we need.
3. This the Brian Roberts all over again.

Payroll

Jake Peavy will cost 1.5 M more than Marquis next year and .5 M less than Ted Lilly. If we’re just talking payroll, we could afford Peavy and Hermida for certain (trade cost is a different matter).

Adding Giles as the LH bat is also very economical for us. Giles isn’t what he once was, but he could plausibly bat 1/2/3 for the Cubs – and that’s what Lou wants, pitchers facing more LH bats. Sure there’s a lot of reason to be skeptical about Giles waiving his NTC – but financially, a deal that nets us Giles and Peavy is a good thing, not a bad thing.

wow .. now this is all I can say about this one ..

AFLACK?
Affleck

He looks confused, too

New Trade possiblilty...

Cubs get Peavy and Giles.

Padres get 49% ownership in the Cubs and the naming rights to Wrigley Field.

"Padre Stadium and Wrigleyville"????
Ack.. "padre stadium AT Wrigleyville"
I would now like to propose that MLB institute drug-testing

for anyone who wants press credentials at a ML ballpark.

Giles

I figured SD was going to buy him out for $3 million??

In essence, signing Giles only cost them six million, as they would have had to pay him three million to leave.

Any GM who wouldn’t sign Giles for six million dollars should be fired on the spot. Right there and then.

what if there is no room for him in their outfield?
Yabbut

SD wants to significantly cut money so $6 million is a lot to them.

Rozner jumped the shark years ago

THAT’S what I don’t get — why is Al surprised? Maybe because he writes for the same paper as one of the more credible local sports reporters (Bruce Miles).

I was surprised...

… because this one seemed SO over-the-top bad.

Yeah, but li'l Napoleon wrote one a few weeks ago

Where he basically stated as fact that a third team would give the Cubs two or three top prospects for Hart or Marquis.

Not unlike the Cubs...

…this post-season, I think Barry tries too hard every once in a while.

Who knows what is going to happen

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ti-peavycubs112608&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

I Presume This Is Tim Brown's (Yahoo! Sports)...

…regarding Towers finding that third team?

We won’t know details until after Thanksgiving, but I find it interesting (if true) that Towers is actively finding (and allegedly found) a third team instead of Hendry?

Perhaps Piniella’s words of us not being in play for Peavy worked Hendry’s leverage angle?

Perhaps Piniella's word means nothing and didn't do anything.

You think Towers puts any stock in what Lou Piniella says? G-d knows I don’t. The day he becomes the GM is the day anything he says in the offseason becomes relevant.

Lou could be posturing

and trying to drop Towers’ asking price…

That doesn't sound like something Lou would do.
How's your tinfoil hat fitting these days?

You said:

Perhaps Piniella’s words of us not being in play for Peavy worked Hendry’s leverage angle?

You’re serious? My jaw is dropping.

Peavy Is Not Due $8M Next Year...

… but rather $11M. That may make things a tad different.

I still think Hendry should do everything he can to land Peavy, within reason (financially). I doubt Giles will go anywhere. I found it odd, though, that the Padres were looking to trim payroll, but then exercised Giles’ option?

Sandy Alderson

stated that Giles hitting approach is EXACTLY the model for the orgranizational philosopshy and wanted Giles around. They want more hitters like him rather than let him go. They have Headley, Venable, Antonelli, Kouz, and Gonzo still young enough to learn and improve.

That Trade Is Not As Advertised...

… from the article, I interpreted that:

(1) Marquis and Giles is a swap – almost identical salary.
(2) Marshall, Cedeno, Vitters and Pie-or-Ascanio-or-Fontenot.

For (1), that sounds like a good swap. If we land Peavy, we don’t need Marquis as a #5 anymore, and we get a lefty RF basically for free (without having to push Marquis).

For (2) Marshall no longer has a spot on the team, because Hill (who is out of options and needs to make the major league club or be traded) and Cotts will fight for the long lefty role. Cedeno can be replaced. Pie is also out of options and no longer has a spot if RJ/Pie platoon center. Ascanio has competition anyways for middle relief. LBR should be protected.

One sounds like a good swap for us, but why would San Diego do it?

Giles for Marquis would be an awful deal for Towers to make, and Paul Depodesta would probably do everything in his power to make sure that deal doesn’t go down.

Repeat after me:

The Padres don’t have ANY pitching.

If (and when) Peavy is dealt, they have 2 starters. Chris Young and Cha Sung Beck. (OK, let’s adjust that to ONE starter) Marquis immediately becomes their #3. (Or maybe their #2.) And since the “Petco Effect” is liberally quoted here, doesn’t that mean Marquis becomes a better pitcher?? Not only would he give them innings, but his numbers would get better.

Of COURSE Peavy’s numbers might not be AS good in Wrigley. To take that to its’ somewhat strange conclusion, Wrigley isn’t a pitchers park (except when the wind blows in, almost half the time) so why should Dempster re-sign? Why did “Z” sign a deal, etc etc etc and etc.

Shouldn’t ANY pitcher avoid Wrigley, if it had a choice????

This will take a long time to play out, and I’m still eager for Al to buy me dinner.

Happy Thanksgiving!

"Shouldn’t ANY pitcher avoid Wrigley, if it had a choice????"

Not necessarily. Wrigley is quite friendly to ground-ball pitchers.

Marquis in SD

has a pretty good chance of being a Type B FA at the end of the year and getting another contract – netting the Padres innings in ’09 and a draft pick afterwards. Brian Giles, on the other hand, runs the risk of accepting arbitration if you offer it, being willing to play out the string in SD.

this sounds interesting doesn't it?

Add in Yahoo’s 3rd team addition today and things begin to take shape.

Padres possibly have found a taker for Cubs prospects or players: Tigers want a SS and RP’ing SP’ing and they might have a prospect that the Padres want. Tigers were disappointed this year and built to win now. Could Detroit be interested in Khahil Greene and Detroit wants to rid themselves of Willis’s contract of $22M 2 years….and a prospect they willing to trade that the Padres are interested in for what the Cubs have like relief pitching and something other.

That might not answer the question of Giles but if DGU is correct that Giles and Marquis are salary swaps and then Willis is included with a Peavy trade that the Padres get Cedeno, Vitters, and then something they want Porcello (?), remember they want top prospects from Atlanta and Samardzija from the Cubs.

Cubs solve their roster problem with Peavy making their starting pitching even stronger with a Cy Young pitcher who cost $8M in ’09 and Giles who cost $9M for one year.

Willis?

I can’t see anyone wanting him… What kind of young pitching does Detroit have? If SD can move Peavy, Giles and Greene, then they can take on all of Marquis’ contract.

I am just using what the Tigers/BoSox were rumored to be discussing

Willis, Marquis, Greene, Giles, Peavy are all starters along with Lugo……and all have unwanted contracts or contracts out of sync to the needs of the team.

Willis is not productive and BoSox wanted to trade unproductive players, but a starting pitcher still has more value than a unproductive and bad fielding SS. While:

Marquis is just an expensive bottom of the rotation innings eater….
Greene was an unproductive hitting SS with still a good glove.
Peavy is a potentially dicey yet productive starter with a big liability
Giles is underpowered RF’er with age

Lot of potential here.

Happy turkey everyone!

Happy turkey to you Al and yours and everyone at BCB.

I’m sure I’m not the only one who counts BCB as something to be thankful for.

Question for the younger set

When did this thing calling the night before Thanksgiving Black Wednesday start?

I remember when I was young going out with frjends the night before especially during the college years back in the late 80s but never a name for it.

I might just be feeling punchy as I have been up til now getting some of dinner together for tomorrow for now 37 people.

Not to sound like an a-hole

But I feel like this site takes every chance it can to shoot down the Jake Peavy trade (even though i don’t think it will happen), but still hangs on to hope that Kerry Wood will be back.

Because the latter seems more likely than the former.
But

Hendry said Wood won’t be back just like Lou said there would be no Peavy…

Completely different situations.
Really

how so?

Because Wood's been a Cub...

… and there seems to be some mystery about why and how he “left”, and the door was left open by Hendry.

Lou pretty much closed the door on Peavy, and we have seen what has happened in the past when Lou has closed doors.

But Hendry shut the door

and then it seems Wood dropped his price. Same could be happening with SD and Lou.

Wood dropped his price?

How do we know what Wood’s “price” was to begin with?

You really think

he wanted a 1 year deal?

Maybe not, but...

… he said publicly he would have taken one.

I think

any trade that overwhelms Hendry is on the table, for the right price and obviously in our favor. So no, a trade like this is not going away and still may be in the Hendry listening stage. I’ve heard him say he will listen to any offer. If this is the offer, he listens. Will he make it happen? No. As I said in another post, we hold out for the right left handed bat and if it doesn’t happen, wait until the trade deadline to see who’s available.

What works is

a 3rd team taking Marquis and sending someone to SD for half Marquis’ price, while Giles goes to the Cubs… SD’s #1 objective seems to be saving money..

If it was Gonzalez instead of Giles

I’d seriously consider making a trade like that.

However, I shall rest assured that such a thing won’t be happening.

Here's an interesting tidbit for all those tired of hearing about Peavy and/or Roberts

just played around a bit with the search function here. Did a search on “roberts” from 10/0107 to 3/31/08, roughly the offseason. Also did a search on “peavy” from 10/01/08 to 11/27/08, i.e. roughly two months into this offseason to date. Here’s what I got:

                        Roberts …… Peavy
Stories ………….. 17………… 6
FanPosts ………. 97 ………. 45
Comments ….. 2189 …… 1097

Discount the numbers a little bit to take into account any references to Dave Roberts, Oral Roberts, Roberts Rules of Order and of course, Mr. Roberts, but still, you get the idea. One third into the offseason, and Peavy is on track to easily surpass Roberts record-setting rumor mill of last year.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Al, I think you are right about Giles but

I do think Peavy will be a Cub before the 2009 season opens. I also would be willing to bet that Derek Lee will not be a Cub at the start of the season with Adam Dunn playing first base.
Once the bids come in this week for the prospective ownership they will have a better idea on who is going to win the bid and will talk to them about adding additional payroll. That person should be Ricketts.

You May Be Forgetting...

…DLee’s NTC. He’s got it for a reason – to not leave the Cubs.

And it's pretty much been stated...

… that Lee’s not going anywhere.

Let us see what Rozner's reporting looks in a lineup and $$ card

Theriot SS ($450K)
Fukudome CF ($12M)
DLee 1B ($13M)
Ramirez 3B ($15.65M)
Soriano LF ($16M)
Giles RF ($9M)
Soto C (450K)
DeRosa 2B ($5.5M)
SP: Z ($17.75M), Dempster ($12M), Lilly ($12M), Harden ($7M), Peavy ($8M)
RP: Gregg ($4.0M), Marmol ($450K), Gaudin ($2.5), Samardzija ($2M), Cotts ($1.5M), Guzman ($500K), LEFTY ($3M)

Bench: Johnson ($2M) (Middle IF ($2M), Middle IF ($400K), K Hill ($450K), Hoffpauir (400K) equals $135M

This fits for I believe the Cubs have a $136-140M budget ceiling leaving $5M to use for a mid season acquisition.

Traded away: Marquis ($9M), Cedeno (500K), Fontenot ($500), Pie ($500K), Marshall ($500K) , Ascanio ($450K), Vitters traded away is $11M

In this scenerio Cubs could do well and sign a Cintron and Mark Loretta, Counsell, even old Grudz or Vizquel. Loretta made $2.75M last year and probably could be signed for that amount this year. Cintron made the league minimum in Baltimore and probably could be $1.5M, Grudz made $4M as a starter at 38 years old and Counsell made $3M

This would be a veteran team outside of Hoffpauir.

Two small corrections...

Peavy’s salary will be $11M in 2009.

Also, if Brian Giles accepts a trade, his salary will be $11M.

Cot’s

So that takes us up to $139M telling me that

Cubs will be near its ceiling and bargain hunting on the bench will be at a premium. Watch the waiver wire like last year when Cubs got RJ and then Edmonds.

Oh, no.

You’re not on the Vizquel kick again, are you?

just including all that might be an option for a utility player

but you can have fun with it for honestly I hesitated thinking you might pick up on it! VBG!

One other note Dempster’s ’09 salary is actually only $8M (although he received a $4M bonus) it probably is spread over the four years of the contract against the budget. This brings the above projected budget back to $135M

Looking at face value what Rozner reported and reading/hearing what is going on in SD where they are ordered to go from $73M to $40M tells me that Peavy and Giles are available for prospects and league minimums.

The other thing mentioned was an americanized off season work out regimen for Fukudome….bet it is weights and stamina…..Giles might be a good #2 hitter and Fukudome the #6 where Soriano is the #5.

Having a potential rotation of 5 genuine top of the rotation starters would be almost deafening….injuries not withstanding this kind of rotation would mean 2/3’s to 3/4’s of the games would go into the 7th inning without taxing the bullpen much.

Giles is not going anywhere.
Al...

…can you explain why San Diego picked up Gile’s option when they are slashing payroll? They have to pay him $9 mil this year and that makes no sense what so ever. That could have bought him out for 3 mil and saved 6, but they go ahead and pick up his option.

It makes no sense because he is not a guy they need to put fans in the seats and his is aging. The Padres need pitching, not a 38 year old OF making 9 mil. This is why I think he will be moved. It may not be the Cubs, but I’ll bet he goes somewhere.

Not Only That...

… but trading him would cost another $2M!

Makes no sense at all…

He'll have to approve the deal first...

… as he’s a 10-and-5 guy. He was also a 10-and-5 guy last year when he turned down a chance to go to a playoff contender, the Red Sox.

Maybe he’s the one expensive guy they keep.

Makes no sense...

…and I think he gets moved, otherwise they wouldn’t have picked up his option.

The Pads front office act like goofballs, but they can’t be that stupid to want to keep Giles, when it is slash and burn time.

Remember - if he went to the Sox

they told him he’d only be a part-time player and that the Sox would be trading him again in the off-season, so it’s not as if there was no reason to turn down that trade.

But at least he'd have been in the playoffs.

Wouldn’t you want that possibility? Obviously, Giles has no desire to leave San Diego, for any reason.

That was then.....

I believe Giles’ outlook has changed. He didn’t accept the trade to Boston — and Giles said this later — “I’d sit on the bench there.” He was just insurance for the Bosox. He’d also be dealt again by Boston.

I don’t think Giles is as married to the team now, as he has been. The vets that are left — are not really pleased with what’s taking shape. Adrian Gonzalez implied that when his time came — for free agency, that is — he’d have to consider all options.

I am repeating what DGU said…sorry…i just saw Al’s reply and didn’t scan the first post. Therefore, +1 to DGU

Giles has not come out and stated this on the record, but this has been intimated in some local newspaper articles, and on talk radio.

I repeat myself in many posts, but if you are not really following the situation with the Padres on a day-to-day basis, you might not understand what they’ve gotten themselves into here. 2009 could be a nightmare on the field and at the gate, with the public relations mess the front office has created, via John Moores, his divorce, the payroll slash, the Hoffman dump, etc, etc.

The Padres must stockpile players, and JP’s their bargaining chip. Giles and Green are other tradable parts. I predict Giles will wave his no-trade, eventually.

So you're basing this on ...

… talk radio and rumors in the mainstream media?

If they really wanted to dump him, why not just fail to pick up his option? That’d have saved a lot of money right away.

TRADE VITTERS

I am so tired of everyone not wanting to trade Vitters. Peavy is a good pitcher, Vitters is a prospect who has done nothing. I am not saying he can’t be but honestly, to get a player the caliber of Jake Peavy and having a minor leaguer hold it up seems outrageous to me.

Look At It This Way...

… if it takes our top prospect who hasn’t played much low A ball (Vitters), a former #1 prospect who hasn’t made it over the last 4 seasons and is now out of options (Pie), a former prospect who had the shortstop position handed to him and couldn’t do anything with it and has been out of options since 2008 (Cedeno), and a lefty #5 starter who may have a #3-4 starter ceiling but basically no longer has a spot on the team (Marshall) to land a former Cy Young pitcher entering his prime, I say do it.

That may be one of the longest run on sentences in the history of the world. After all that, I hope you get my point. :-)

Exactly

You don’t pass on a recent Cy Young winner due to a low level prospect, with lots of potential, and so you can save money for “tweaks.”

Starting pitching is the best place to stockpile talent. Just a few years ago many thought the Cubs were locks to dominate with Prior, Wood & Z…

What if...

… the Mets had traded David Wright, in 2002, for Barry Zito?

I’m guessing Mets fans would have been shaking their heads for years to come.

What if

Peavy’s dominant for next 5 years?

A couple of big what if's.
Glad you recognize

you’re making a big “what if” as well..

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