We haven't seen the prodigal Jon Lieber throw in a Cub uniform yet this spring; when he does, this afternoon vs. the Mariners at Peoria (Sean Marshall is also scheduled to go today), it will be his first appearance in a Cub uniform since August 1, 2002, a seven-inning, two-run, no-walk outing which was one of his better ones in a season cut short by injury (the Cubs won that game in extra innings, Lieber long gone, no thanks to Dr. Tightpants, who helped cough up a 3-2 Cub lead).
Lieber's been bothered by injuries again in the last year and a half, but his arm is (supposedly) sound. I wasn't in favor of this signing but if healthy, he could put up numbers similar to his 2005 season with the Phillies, which are similar to his career norms. If so, it would be one of Jim Hendry's better pickups.
One thing you know Lieber won't do is walk people -- his career walk average is 1.74 per nine innings. That ranks 45th among all starters in major league history, seven spots ahead of Greg Maddux.
G 30
GS 30
IP 189
H 196
ER 85
BB 35
SO 135
W 12
L 6
ERA 4.05
WHIP 1.222
0 recs | 36 comments
tony412
G 17GS 17
IP 87
H 102
ER 68
BB 30
SO 73
W 6
L 4
ERA 4.15
WHIP 1.28
tony412 - March 3, 2008
Lieber
G 31GS 31
IP 194
H 195
ER 90
BB 44
SO 112
W 13
L 9
ERA 4.18
WHIP 1.232
McRipper - March 3, 2008
********** Cubs on WGN radio today? *********
lostinthevines - March 3, 2008
No.
MLB Audio & MLB.TV. Details in the game thread later this morning.Al Yellon - March 3, 2008
Rats.
Thanks, Allostinthevines - March 3, 2008
WGN Radio Spring Schedule
http://wgnradio.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=38566&Itemid=182Neifi Puppy - March 3, 2008
Thanks for posting this.
Chicago radio/TV coverage of spring games is spotty and mostly on weekends. However, almost (and I emphasize almost) every game is on MLB Audio in some form. I think you can sign up for MLB Audio and cancel in 30 days and get your $ back -- right? If that's true you could sign up now and basically have the rest of ST free.(Reminder, the two games remaining vs. the Angels will be on Angels radio free, thanks to Arte Moreno.)
Al Yellon - March 3, 2008
It's only ten days
From MLB.com's terms of use (emphasis mine):Refund Policies for Certain Subscription Services: In order to provide the highest customer satisfaction possible, MLBAM will refund the paid purchase price of (a) a yearly subscription to MLB.TV Premium, MLB.TV or MLB.com Gameday Audio if the refund request is received within ten (10) days of the date of purchase., and (b) a monthly subscription to MLB.TV Premium or MLB.TV subscription if the refund request is received within five (5) days of the date of purchase or within five (5) days of the last billing. To request a refund, send an e-Mail to customerservice@website.mlb.com or call Customer Service at 866-800-1275. Subscriptions otherwise are not subject to refund or credit.
Mordecai - March 3, 2008
Thanks for posting this.
So, a carefully timed purchase of MLB Audio this month, could get you most of the games free. You'll just have to check the WGN Radio schedule to see when you could get the most value out of this provision.Al Yellon - March 3, 2008
If he's healthy
I think Al's projection looks good. We probably can't expect a repeat of 2001, unfortunately, when he went 20-6 with a 3.80 ERA. That team stayed in contention until mid-September, if I recall correctly.danimal15 - March 3, 2008
I have a real good feeling about this
Call me goofy and you won't be the first or last to do so but I have a feeling this is going to be a good signing.G 27
GS 27
ERA 4.15
W 12
L 8
SO 130
W 70
puckishcubsfan - March 3, 2008
You didn't fill in all of the categories.
daver - March 7, 2008
Lieber Thoughts
I expect him to take the #5 slot and snap back a bit since he is out of Citizen's Bank Park. Got to shed several starts from his projection do to age related injuries though (he is a few weeks older than me, so I am not being prejudiced :) ).G 26
GS 26
IP 162
H 179
ER 80
BB 28
SO 95
W 11
L 9
ERA 4.44
WHIP 1.28
Qixotl - March 3, 2008
Me thinks...
G 28GS 25
IP 160
H 185
ER 80
BB 40
SO 90
W 9
L 8
ERA 4.50
WHIP 1.40
Damen Jackson - March 3, 2008
Lieber
G 28GS 28
IP 177
H 102
ER 90
BB 29
SO 112
W 11
L 9
ERA 4.38
WHIP 1.31
cubsfan25 - March 3, 2008
I have a feeling.....
Lieber is going to end up being the #2 starter by year end.Just one of my gut feelings....that are wrong as often as they are right.
MPH73 - March 3, 2008
I won't even post my projections...
I say he makes less than 10 starts and get yanked out of the rotation.santoswoodenlegs - March 3, 2008
Interesting that...
you and the poster directly above you have such wildly divergent views. Either of you care to toss out some ballpark numbers? I'm actually very interested in both your thoughts.Damen Jackson - March 3, 2008
O rly?
how is this then..G 9
GS 9
IP 55
H 50
ER 37
BB 28
SO 38
W 1
L 6
ERA: 6.05
WHIP: 1.51
santoswoodenlegs - March 3, 2008
These predictions are based on what?
Lieber has never had a era higher then 4.93 in the last 10 plus seasons he pitched. Even the year he had a 4.93 era his FIP was alot better, and he pitched much better on the road. So he really pitched better then his era showed, he pitched in a tough ballpark and had some bad luck. So you think this is the year Lieber finally just loses it or something? Because there's nothing that would say he should struggle that bad in his career. Especially last season he had a 3.72 era in his first 10 starts(12 games), before hurting his foot and trying to pitch through it in his final two starts.cubsfan25 - March 3, 2008
Oh man.
I said in the beginning that I wasn't going to even post numbers because I "predicted" that he wouldn't even make 10 starts before he got taken out of the rotation. I suppose I'm basing my numbers on my first "prediction", hence the bad numbers. Yes he has never had an ERA over 4.93. So. What. Before you clicked this link you'd probably never seen a kid balancing a barracuda on his head before. I only posted the numbers at the request of Damen Jackson, and I made them up pretty quickly off the top of my head (kinda like the fish boy). I should have just kept them to myself I guess. My grandfater always told me to never make predictions anyway, especially about the future.santoswoodenlegs - March 3, 2008
I so...
was not looking for a firestorm, just a bit more info. Thanks for the opinion, and sorry about the heat.Damen Jackson - March 3, 2008
No worries...
you can't make everyone happy all the time...unless you show them a Don Knotts montage!santoswoodenlegs - March 3, 2008
I have said
it before, that is one fine looking man.wild bill - March 3, 2008
I'd guess
14-15 wins with an ERA around 4.0.I won't drill down into all the other numbers, but I think Lieber comes on strong in the 2nd half and will be someone Lou will trust.
MPH73 - March 3, 2008
Lieber mania
G 26GS 26
IP 170
W 11
L 7
ERA 4.44
WHIP 1.28
MDBNIU - March 3, 2008
You didn't either.
daver - March 7, 2008
2001
Did Jon and Kerry throw backtoback one hitters in 2001 or am I channeling Clemens and misremembering?puckishcubsfan - March 3, 2008
Yes, they did.
Lieber: May 24, 2001Wood: May 25, 2001
Against different teams, no less.
Al Yellon - March 3, 2008
Lieber
G 11GS 7
IP 47
H 60
ER 24
BB 8
SO 28
W 2
L 4
ERA: 5.3
WHIP: 1.44
It becomes quite clear to Lou that Lieber just doesn't have it anymore. The ERA is higher because Lieber is put in a couple of times to "mop up" after a blow out loss. As a starter he's closer to 5 (on the high side).
frustratedfan - March 3, 2008
110 Win Season
BTW. Looking at these Lieber predictions, if they are right, the Cubs will win 110 wins. Most of these predictions are laughably bad and project that Lieber is not only going to be effective at 38, he's going to come close to a career season.2002 was the last time that Lieber had an ERA under 4.20 and that was before a major arm injury. And yet 50% of the predictors are predicting he's under 4.2 Further his career average is 4.28. And yet more than 50% of the predictors are saying he will better his career average... one poster by nearly a quarter run.
Crazy talk.
frustratedfan - March 3, 2008
Who shit in your corn flakes?
McRipper - March 3, 2008
I dunno about sub 4.20 era
But there's no reason to believe at age 38 Lieber still can't be a good 4th starter. Lieber is just turing 38 this April, there are a bunch of pitchers who are older then Lieber who are still pitching well. I don't think Lieber stuff is any different then two or three years ago. He hasn't been as due to the hitter friendly ballpark and some bad luck.07-4.52 era in 12 starts(4.73 era in 14 games)
Home ERA-5.26
Road ERA-4.19(even better era on road as SP)
FIP-3.82- XFIP-4.00
06-4.93 era in 27 starts(4.52 era in second half)
Home ERA-5.18
Road ERA-4.64
FIP-4.60-XFIP-4.40
In 2005 Lieber was very good still(like Lilly/Hill good)
05-4.21 era in 35 starts
Home ERA- 4.38
Road ERA- 4.05
FIP-4.13- XFIP-3.83
So with road era's of 4.19,4.64 and 4.05 on the road over the last three years, and FIP/XFIP being much better then his era's over the last three years. To go with his very good career numbers at Wrigley. All signs point to Lieber numbers being pretty good with us this year. So saying Lieber will suck and be removed from the rotation after 9-10 starts is just as much crazy talk as Lieber having a sub 4.20 era this year.
cubsfan25 - March 3, 2008
This John Lieber..
Might do pretty good for us...but I'm not holding my breath that the 38 year old one is going to provide much in the way of "quality ML pitching". Just my opinion.
santoswoodenlegs - March 3, 2008
More "Crazy Talk"
G: 26GS: 24
IP:157
H: 181
BB: 32
SO: 106
W: 11
L: 8
ERA:4.54
How about that, no more Citzens Bank park, where I can jack it out, better health, infield grass heavy, I say 11 wins from no. 5 in the rotation.
Johnny Callison was a Cub - March 3, 2008
The Vet
Seeing as how Lieber's injury last season was not arm-related, and he got plenty of rest last year because of that injury, I think he's going to do an acceptable job as a dependable, back-of-the-rotation veteran. I see him putting together a season not unlike '05 with the Phillies. Not quite that good, but pretty good nonetheless.G: 31
GS: 31
IP: 205
H: 207
ER: 97
BB: 45
SO: 135
W: 13
L: 11
ERA: 4.26
WHIP: 1.23
daver - March 7, 2008
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