Bill James once wrote that the five-man rotation didn't make sense because, essentially, you were taking about eight starts from each of your four best pitchers and giving them to your fifth-best starting pitcher.
It's not quite that simple, of course, because modern starters don't go as long as pitchers did as recently as the 1970's. Whether they should do so or not is an argument for another post.
Sean Marshall photo via www.tireball.com
One thing managers do, in general, in this era of the five-man rotation, is to keep sending the five guys out there, in order (barring injuries, trades, etc.), regardless of days off. I got to thinking, why not use the off days, especially early in the season, to keep your top four guys going every fifth day, and slotting the fifth guy in there only when needed?
The 2009 Cubs schedule happens to lend itself quite well to such a plan. I slotted in Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Rich Harden, in that order (change up the order if you think yours works better), making sure they had at least four days' rest, and the put Sean Marshall in when needed. When there were off days that allowed the first four to continue on and still have the minimum four days' rest, I left Marshall out.
The result is 35 starts for the first four starters -- that's one more than they'd have in most current rotations -- and 22 starts for Sean Marshall, which is about the workload you'd want to have for him. The rest of the time he could be in the bullpen, throwing an inning here or there to keep sharp, or be available if one of the other starters gets blown out early.
The Cubs had some success using Terry Mulholland in this sort of role in 1998, although Mulholland made only six starts and was mostly a reliever. He went at least two innings in relief 13 different times. Marshall could play this role. Or you could substitute "Chad Gaudin" for Marshall. This way, the Cubs get optimum production out of their best four starters, have an extra long reliever in the bullpen for a fair chunk of the season, and save money which could be used for a midseason acquisition.
Here's the rotation I came up with. The link opens a Word document in a new browser window, which you can save to your computer and edit if you want to play around with this. Food for thought on a snowy Tuesday in Chicago.
0 recs | 104 comments
Can Zambrano hold up?
sdhman11 - January 13, 2009
If not, you could slot Gaudin in for a few starts.
Al Yellon - January 13, 2009
Al, good provocative post---my thoughts
If Cubs go with this rotation than I am with you, 22 starts for Marshall or Gaudin or combo of that. I have seen statistics that top of the rotation pitchers do better with regular 4 day rests than a periodic 5 day rest. Sports like a regular cycle and rhythm.
Now if the Cubs make the trade you don’t think they can afford and/or SD won’t now pull the trigger but if it happens my thinking is moving Harden to that 22 game start. That coincides with his historic health and then you have Peavy-Dempster-Zambrano-Lilly going every five days regardless and Harden getting those occasional starts, this would make for a true WS contender saving the arm with the best stuff but brittle for the playoffs.
Ivy Walls - January 13, 2009
Um...
I think its Harden you’d have to worry about not Z. That said, I actually like this idea, it just comes down to the fragility of Harden. I think it would be very optomistic to think that he could make 35 starts (although we’d ALL love this). But to the point of having your 4 best take the ball 13 more times than the 5th, that only seems logical.
jbertram - January 13, 2009
Again, you could slot Gaudin in for Harden if he misses some starts.
Al Yellon - January 13, 2009
Al
Agreed. As long as its on regular rest, like you pointed out above, I don’t see the problem in this at all, and I definitely see the benefit.
jbertram - January 13, 2009
Gaudin in for Harden
or Marshall in for Harden, Gaudin in for Marshall? If Marshall has enough rest slot him in, and if Harden can pitch a few days later he can take Marshall’s start.
neverAcquiesce - January 13, 2009
Right.
You could slot three pitchers into two slots that way. It’s not really a “six man rotation”, but you get six guys involved. And Marshall and Gaudin are in the pen at other times.
Al Yellon - January 13, 2009
Like making the best five-card hand
out of the seven cards available to you.
neverAcquiesce - January 13, 2009
Z, Demp, Harden, Lilly, Marshall, Gaudin and...
who’s #7?
blackhawk24 - January 13, 2009
Wuertz.
willie mays hayes' gloves - January 13, 2009
More of an analogy to Hold 'Em
than an exact metaphor. If you really need a seventh though, it’d prolly be Shark.
Or Peavy.
neverAcquiesce - January 13, 2009
I was wondering when
Peavy was going to be mentioned.
Grockcubs - January 13, 2009
Tongue-in-cheekly
but, yes.
neverAcquiesce - January 13, 2009
Or you could use Marshall
I think the point of all of this is that Sean Marshall is a very very valuable part of this team
dlee25 - January 13, 2009
The short outings
seemed to work well last year for Harden, hopefully that helped to rehab the arm. He said that he felt ready to go longer so maybe he’ll be training for that this off season. I think it’s a great idea, Marshall is good for a spark every now and then, but I don’t know if he could fill a 5th full-time starter role. Not that I don’t want to see him do well, I do, but I think Al is on to something here. Hey Al, how much time does Rothschild have left on his contract, you may have an opportunity here! LOL :-)
Fonzie2178 - January 13, 2009
I agree, but
Good idea Al, but switch roles for Marshall for Hardin. This gives you two lefties every four starts and with 22 starts Hardin may stay off the DL.
Clutche - January 13, 2009
This is exactly what i was thinking.
Or, every time the 5th starter was needed you could slot Marshall in for Harden and move Rich back a couple of days to keep him fresh.
Bierkieser - January 13, 2009
only if
They get Peavy and make Harden the 5th starter. This would give him the workload he might be able to handle.
KedzieKid - January 13, 2009
Great post Al
but I think since Harden is in the mix it might be a 5 man rotation, with Marshall and Samardzija making up two halves of the last whole.
That is, I think we’d be lucky to get 25-30 starts out of Harden. (Heck 22-24 would be nearly a miracle considering his history) That being the case, I think Lou will continue to baby Harden, throw Marshall out there as his #5 and use Shark or Gaudin as spot starters to keep Harden on as much rest as possible.
Z and Lily could start 35 games in their sleep, and Dempster can probably do 30 easy, but Harden gums up the workd significantly.
SouthsideCub - January 13, 2009
Why not?
I would worry about Hardin too but we pay these guys a lot of money to work every 5th day so why not get out of them what we want. I think last year we saw Lou go on the “modified” 4.5 day rotation, why not up the ante, especially if we don’t sign another starter.
mrcubsfan - January 13, 2009
an example how you want the world to be based on some other value
and what the world actually is….
It matters little how much you pay someone as to their health or ability not to get injured.
Ivy Walls - January 13, 2009
That's an interesting idea
I liked this post Al. Great idea too. Considering we saw on TV and in interviews only a year or 2 ago the idea of a 6 man rotation on some teams.
The question remains if our starters can give enough quality starts? Dempster should be solid, Zambrano is a question mark at the moment (he won’t be if he pitches well in ST), Harden may not be able to handle the workload, and Lilly should give us 35 starts.
I think this plan would work better if we had Peavy and Harden moved into that 5th starter spot with the 20-25 starts. However it’s a good idea with who we have.
ak123 - January 13, 2009
In addition to Gaudin, who could make some starts...
… you have Shark, who’s supposedly going to be stretched out to start.
Al Yellon - January 13, 2009
Interesting Al, but...
We’re talking about an increased workload on each of our pitchers by 15%. A guy like Zambrano who already have backloaded for the next five years, needs to adhere to that contract if we’re going to make it worth our while.
The Verducci Effect seems to be a good benchmark as to a reason not do do this, and I would be very cautious before risking our best arms before the increased workload of the playoffs.
The Boston Red Sox have devised a sort of “phantom DL” for their guys that seems to work just fine. They put a guy like Beckett on the BS-DL for 15 days and bring up one of their young studs like Justin Masterson to fill the void while he rests his shoulder.
I think just as importantly, our pitching coaches should be stressing ground ball efficiency and defense to protect our pitchers’ arms to limit the amount of fly balls and overall pitch counts.
IowaCubs- - January 13, 2009
It doesn't really give them that much more work.
I’m talking about giving each of the first four one, MAYBE two more starts than a full-time starter generally makes these days.
Ryan Dempster made 33 starts in 2008. I’m suggesting giving him 35. I can’t believe that would harm him for the postseason.
Further, you could also slot in a minor leaguer or two once a playoff spot is clinched, if you are worried about the postseason.
Al Yellon - January 13, 2009
I see your point...
… though I could also argue that the increased workload of the regular season contributed to Dempster’s shoddy performace in the regular season. Either way, it’s a wash in my opinion.
IowaCubs- - January 13, 2009
*post season
IowaCubs- - January 13, 2009
I don't think workload had anything to do with Game 1.
Demp just happened to pitch his worst game of the year when it mattered the most.
neverAcquiesce - January 13, 2009
Exactly.
Al Yellon - January 13, 2009
every time I finally succeed in blocking that game out
someone has to go and bring it up again… :D
drewishdrewid - January 13, 2009
If we don't remember the past
we are doomed to repeat it.
neverAcquiesce - January 13, 2009
that's something
you wanna say to Worf, not me… :D
drewishdrewid - January 13, 2009
I don't think workload was Dempster's problem...
I think nerves were his problem. I think the workload argument is more applicable for Zambrano and Harden. But we have Gaudin and Marshall (and Samardzija if necessary) to fill in occasional starts to rest those guys if need be.
SouthernCub - January 13, 2009
IMHO, they need to know they have a "6th starter"
Because of injuries. This way if one of the top four is out, Marshall goes in that slot and the “6th” guy fills Marshall’s slot. Harden is the prime candidate for being one of the one-to-four that could miss starts, so the Cubs need a “#6”. Is that Gaudin?
blackhawk24 - January 13, 2009
I was just about to come make a case for this
Figure you need 162 starts over the course of the season.
Ted, Z, Dempster take 32 each, so thats 96 of the 162 games
That leaves 66 starts, so why not create a rotation within the rotation that gives Harden, Marshall, and Gaudin about 22 starts each. When they aren’t supposed to start a particular week, Marshall and Gaudin can pitch out of the bullpen. This gives Harden a good amount of rest over the course of the season.
nji232 - January 13, 2009
Actually this sort of plan would make me want to sign Ben Sheets
Slot him, Harden, and Marshall in to take up those last 66 starts. You would have a pretty well rested Sheets and Harden come playoff time.
nji232 - January 13, 2009
That's not bad...
not bad at all; I like it. It’s cheaper than Peavy (both dollars and players) and then they can really pursue Roberts if the extension there falls through. That is unless Hendry ends up back in the hospital having to deal with the pain of dealing with McFail and the ever-interfering Angelos.
blackhawk24 - January 13, 2009
Well the last time Hendry was in the hospital he signed Ted Lilly
Which remains IMO one of the best free agent pitcher contracts ever given out.
nji232 - January 13, 2009
Ted Lilly got his contract
cos Hendry didn’t want to remain in the hospital.
neverAcquiesce - January 13, 2009
Ted Lilly's signature
has the power to heal
El Borto - January 13, 2009
Here's the problem I have with your rotation.
I started this discussion a couple weeks ago and noted that if you start Harden earlier in the rotation, you can guarantee him two indoor starts.
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2009/1/6/710694/it-s-official-marquis-to-r#11203915
Where’s the credit?!?
cubswynn - January 13, 2009
I should probably ammend that
to say two indoor starts at the beginning of the season. Where the weather in the places you have him starting could be cold.
cubswynn - January 13, 2009
interesting idea
Im sure they wont do it, but its an interesting idea and I think it would work well.
mjk83 - January 13, 2009
Wow.
I saw the title of the post, and all I could think was, “Al wants a midget pitcher?”
Nice argument, though, even if there are no little people involved.
znohitter - January 13, 2009
Or a no-legged pitcher.
On a skateboard.
neverAcquiesce - January 13, 2009
ahh..
..a “Kids” reference. Very nice.
bikemonkey - January 13, 2009
I might not be seeing the big picture ...
but doesn’t this happen a lot already? Marquis, our fifth starter last year, was healthy all season and only started 28 times. I imagine there are few times when a team’s top four starters stay healthy enough to pull something like this off, and given the injury issues for Z and Harden, I don’t see how this would work for the ’09 Cubs.
elgato - January 13, 2009
This is happening already...
You’re exactly right – Piniella would skip Marquis’ turn when the first four starters had extra rest due to off-days, rainouts, etc. Even in a best-case scenario, when all the starting pitchers remain healthy, the 5th starter would probably wind up with 25-30 starts just because rainouts and the resulting make-up dates will alter the schedule over the course of the season. At the same time, Al’s larger point is also correct – you want to maximize the contribution of your best players so you skip the least effective pitcher’s turn when possible.
LaddieRenfroe - January 13, 2009
this seems to have happened in Cincinnati for as long as I can remember
but they have also had bad pitching and have relied on one or two guys like Harang and Arroyo.
justin007000 - January 13, 2009
Derek Lowe is off the table
4 years/60M
Braves have a pretty good staff now, especially if Kawakami can translate in the bigs
bren - January 13, 2009
Good
I don’t understand in the least why the Brewers didn’t go after him. They seem to be pocketing the money that was to go to Sabathia and perhaps even the Sheets money. Their rotation now seems to make them the Texas Rangers of the NL Central.
dmlichte - January 13, 2009
Is Dempster at $52 million ...
a better deal than Lowe at $60 million? I’m undecided …
elgato - January 13, 2009
Dempster is four years younger.
So I’d say yes.
Al Yellon - January 13, 2009
Lowe is a better pitcher than Dempster
Why are people so wrapped up with Lowe’s chronological age given that he is not a power pitcher and has been incredibly healthy throughout his career. In strong sense Derrek Lowe is a Greg Maddux clone. Maddux pitched very well for a long time. And I’ll bet that Lowe will too.
BLou - January 13, 2009
I believe it has much to do with the term of the contract.
If the question is who would you rather have take the ball in 2009, most would answer Lowe. If the question is the 4th year of the contract in the 2013 season, age becomes a huge factor.
N Oakley - January 13, 2009
Good point.
cowsarecool220 - January 13, 2009
I like Dempster in years 3 and 4 more than Lowe
and I’m 50/50 in years 1 and 2. So overall, yes, I like the Dempster deal better.
ballhawk - January 13, 2009
Lowe has a much better track record, but the two are pretty close. It will be interesting
to see which one has more wins over the life of their contract. I’m betting on Demp.
willie mays hayes' gloves - January 13, 2009
I'll pass
By bringing back the same rotation we had last year, I think the last thing we’ll need to worry about is whether they’ll be able to get the job done, barring injuries of course. I’d be worried about burning them out, personally. I know its very optimistic, but I’d rather have our starters be fresh for the playoffs, that way they can pick up the slack when we aren’t hitting.
Chippered - January 13, 2009
The Cubs had some success using Terry Mulholland in this sort of role in 1998, although Mulholland made only six starts and was mostly a reliever. He went at least two innings in relief 13 different times.
Relief pitchers going more than an inning?
That’s not really the way Lou rolls… :D
drewishdrewid - January 13, 2009
Unless your name is Marmol.
neverAcquiesce - January 13, 2009
even he usually only went
1 2/3.
drewishdrewid - January 13, 2009
This year he is going to become the master of the 3 inning save
nji232 - January 13, 2009
Goose?
Gossage? Is that you?
drewishdrewid - January 13, 2009
And a one-armed man by August.
neverAcquiesce - January 13, 2009
Gaudin?
I keep hearing Chad Gaudin as a possible spot starter. I recognize that he’s done this in the past, but now? Really? Did we see ANYTHING that happened last year to indicate that he could do this? I really wasn’t all that impressed with him as a reliever. He sat on the bench pretty well, tho.
drewishdrewid - January 13, 2009
Gaudin's Role?
That’s very up n the air to me. Ideally, I would like him to be a long reliever and spot starter. Last season, I wasn’t impressed with the guy, either. With Marquis gone, Gaudin is going to have to step up in whatever role he’s given. He needs to improve.
memphiscub - January 13, 2009
Is he the poster boy for Lou's 2009 doghouse?
El Borto - January 13, 2009
Not the doghouse.
Lou’s dumpster, out back.
drewishdrewid - January 13, 2009
Ha!
neverAcquiesce - January 13, 2009
agree 100%
there was all the hype that we were lucky to get gaudin in the deal with the A’s…..I wasn’t impressed with him at all, and by the end of the season I was sick of him
cubsmania - January 13, 2009
I recall him starting out pitching well,
but then he hurt himself and was terrible after he came back (pardon the pun).
Gaudin will need to earn back the trust of his manager which he lost due to his injury caused by his own carelessness. Gaudin let everyone down including his teammates, manager and fans. Hopefully, he can rebound in 2009.
cowsarecool220 - January 13, 2009
Starting rotation is cause for concern
Why? Because it usually is for just about every team, every year. Ryan Dempster had a career year in 2008 that I doubt he will replicate. Ted Lilly has been great in a Cub uniform, but lets face it he is only a 6 inning pitcher and is bound to see his performance go backwards at least a little bit. Rich Harden is brilliant when healthy, but counting on him to take the ball every 5th day over a 6 month season is wishful thinking. Carlos Zambrano is what he is, which is a gifted workhorse who is enigmatic and therefore can’t be solidly relied upon. Our fifth starter pool is Sean Marshall and Chad Gaudin, both of whom have their plusses and minuses.
But I’m okay going to battle with this rotation. It is as good as anybody’s in the National League.
BLou - January 13, 2009
Exactly.
We’ve got the arms I’d be afraid to face as a fan of an opposing team.
neverAcquiesce - January 13, 2009
The rotation is built to win the Division. There’s no other team in the Central that has a rotation as good.
I’m just not sure the Cubs have the right arms for the playoffs. The Cubs still needs an Ace.
VFTB Matt - January 13, 2009
Off topic - help?
I am trying to locate a 2009 Cubs iCal Calendar for my new iPhone (and my Mac).
Has anyone seen one in cyberland? Any assistance is appreciated.
Thanks!
The E-Man - January 13, 2009
I just searched "Cubs" in the app store
and didn’t see anything…I’m sure closer to the season one will pop up. If you are interested though, and search “Bulls” and “Blackhawks” there are both awesome calendars/pocket schedules for them that you can download. I recommend them.
PurpleLineToWrigley - January 13, 2009
check this one out
webcal://ical.mac.com/rengel/Chicago%20Cubs.ics
it’s a subscription – right now it’s only through March, but I believe as soon as the tv times get finalized, the regular season will be available.
ballhawk - January 13, 2009
Good Idea
but depending on the health of th rotation I like the idea for August/September instead of the beginning of the season. With Harden and, to a lesser extent, Z we need to keep their arms as fresh as possible. The risk of having gassed or hurt pitchers for the stretch run and playoffs (if we make it) is a greater risk than having Marshall (or whoever) pitch every fifth start.
Of course, if we add another good starter it’s a moot point.
Cubinator - January 13, 2009
this is a good idea
If everyone can stay healthy. Marshall/Gaudin will be fine in the 5th spot, and maybe even Guzman. Shark needs be be in AAA to strech out his innings and work on comanding all off his pitches to see if he can be a starter, or if his stuff his beter as a setup/closer type
wfree0104 - January 13, 2009
I agree on Shark.
He needs to master a 3rd pitch and get stretched out to start.
Bierkieser - January 13, 2009
Disagree with this idea
I don’t think this is a good idea for our rotation……..z was having dead arm last year and doesn’t need extra work, dempster has had arm problems in the past, harden…well we all know about his problems. I just don’t think this would help the team out that much………….I’d only do it if we were in a tight race towards the end of the season. And having gaudin sport start seems like throwing a game away to me.
Plus….we have z and dempster under big contracts, we should take care of their arms so they can pitch through all the years we signed them for.
cubsmania - January 13, 2009
Good idea for other teams, this team, not so much
I don’t want to say the Cubs are going to cruise to the post-season but the rest of the division has gotten worse since opening day of 2008. I don’t see any team challenging the Cubs. Let our starters take it easy and have them going strong in September.
With Harden in the rotation, this is an even worse idea unless you make him the guy who has his starts skipped.
IllinoisCubs - January 13, 2009
Assuming there isn't a trade or signing...
I say we roll this idea out that last 1/5 of the season and go into the playoffs with a head of steam.
Kansas25 - January 13, 2009
Unless the Cardinals come outta nowhere,
I see no need for this. Cubs should win the division by 7-8 games and the occasional extra day off helps some of these guys..
CubFaninCA - January 13, 2009
Nice idea, but could cost us in the long run
I really like this idea, and I think if I was a manager I would give it a try. But I think it may be pushing it a bit. Zambrano and Harden are obvious concerns because of the past. I think Lilly and Dempster could handle it. Also what do you think about starting Samardzija every once and ahile instead of Gaudin?
blakethesnake77 - January 13, 2009
I've only skimmed the discussion here as it's a busy day for me today.
So, apologies if I’m just repeating what others have already said better.
But to me, an idea like this is good in theory and just the kind of wrong-headed mistake Lou Piniella was inclined to make last year.
After an off-season where the Cardinals and Brewers got worse, we do not need to be making moves to maximize our regular season win total at the expense of our post-season strength.
If the Reds’ youngsters step up and they push us for a post-season berth, well, then, this is an idea you can employ at mid-season. But right now, it looks like the Cubs have a comfortable margin on the rest of the NL Central and we should play that way.
DGU - January 13, 2009
I started this conversation
See the above link.
The beginning of the year schedule lends itself to having a four man rotation. Giving Harden two indoor starts (at Houston and Milwaukee), keeping him away from potential cold weather. However I agree, this is NOT a good idea to employ over an entire year.
cubswynn - January 13, 2009
Trying to guard Harden for indoor starts is smart
but really we need to think more long term with Harden. The likelihood is that we’ll need to have Harden skip some starts and play the role that Al wants Marshall to play.
Who among us wouldn’t trade 150 regular season healthy Harden innings for 20 healthy post-season Harden innings?
DGU - January 13, 2009
Well, if you do that....
…. you could slot Gaudin in for the “missed” starts Harden wouldn’t make.
That kind of makes a six-man “rotation”, though Gaudin wouldn’t really be on rotation, he’d be a spot starter/long man.
Al Yellon - January 13, 2009
Heres my brilliant idea.
You take Harden out of the “rotation.” You have him get on a schedule, and pitch every Saturday. That way, he gets good rest, he gets on a schedule, and then he can get in a rhythm. And Saturday is the best day. You always have a game on Saturdays. Its probably a pretty crucial game of a weekend series. Either we lost the day before and need a bounce back win, or we just won and wanna keep the ball rollin. In that rotation, you would definatly need 4 other guys, so I dont know what to do there. Maybe Marshall is the answer. But I think if Harden owns a day for the whole season, it would be beneficial to him.
LPLancer23 - January 13, 2009
How would Harden take that?
cubswynn - January 13, 2009
i think he would like it if
he was 15-4 and went more than 5 innings a game.
LPLancer23 - January 14, 2009
I like that idea if we get another reliable starter
That would work on many levels. For one they could use that as a marketing campaign, and Harden won’t be exposed as much could be healthier for the playoffs.
nji232 - January 13, 2009
Isn't that what they do in Japan?
Don’t starting pitchers only pitch once a week?
cowsarecool220 - January 13, 2009
It's what they do in college baseball
Most teams have a “Friday” starter to help teams take the first game of a series.
The problem I’d have with Harden being the “Saturday” starter is that it would take someone out of their natural rotation; I wouldn’t want to mess up someone’s routine because Harden had to start on a specific day.
Bill Potter - January 14, 2009
AL
Who is the odd man out if Peavy is added to the roster?
jtsurf - January 13, 2009
there's probably only a 1% chance Al will answer this one... ;-)
ballhawk - January 13, 2009
.05 %
jtsurf - January 13, 2009
Odd man out?
Probably Michael Wuertz.
Al Yellon - January 14, 2009
The 4 Man rotation makes sense...
…for the reason cited by James and given the cycle of recovery for the pitcher’s arm. Of course, the latter implies that a guy isn’t being pushed to 120+ pitch counts regularly, too, but then he may need 10 days rest not 4. Pitchers have to be managed well within the game and from start to start to start, but if they are not being abused then a 4 man rotation is fine.
DudeVf11 - January 13, 2009
I love this idea
I’ve been pushing it for a while and I think it’s also a great way to develop young arms and get them into the MLB faster.
Cub Style - January 16, 2009
Which is perfect for someone like Sean Marshall, who doesn't have the stamina to make 34 starts.
Al Yellon - January 16, 2009
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