2009 Cubs Community Projections

by Al Yellon on Jan 26, 2009 8:16 AM CST in Community Projections

Colin Wyers, who is one of the most knowledgeable posters we have at BCB regarding statistical analysis, has devised a system that will make it much easier to make projections for the 2009 Cubs. All you have to do is click on this link and input your projections for as many players as you want. For now, it's only for hitters; Colin promises a similar form for pitchers soon. Here are the simple instructions he emailed me:

Fields with an asterisk are required; fields without an asterisk are not.
Only project as many players as you are confident in.
You do not have to look at any computer-based projection systems before hand. We are deliberately seeking human input here.
Remember that these are median forecasts - we're projecting the most likely estimate here, where the truth is likely to hover around that.
These forecasts are for a player's time as a Cub only - if you anticipate a player being traded away before the season starts, just put a 0 into everything.

Thanks in advance for your projections. I'll post results as soon as there is a large enough sample to make them meaningful.

0 recs | 14 comments

Comments

this is...

pretty freaking cool! nice job

cubsluver22 - January 26, 2009 reply

Very cool idea - thanks, Colin.

Anything that keeps me from having to do math is much appreciated. Seems a little early to start coming up with projections, but, hey, at least we can get the wheels turning.

daver - January 26, 2009 reply

It's really not that early.

The first spring training game is less than a month away. (Feb. 25 vs. the Dodgers.)

Al Yellon - January 26, 2009 reply

hooray!

Emelie - January 26, 2009 reply

Dodgers, eh?

I know it doesn’t count, but I hope the Cubs beat the crap out of them.

jdb-44 - January 26, 2009 reply

Yes, Colin's done a great job organizing Cubs' projections this year.

As an FYI, BtB will be compiling community projections across across all teams as a fans’ view of the 2009 seasons.

Sky Kalkman - January 26, 2009 reply

Interesting

I’m almost afraid to touch the thing, I’m afraid I’ll only show my ignorance

carolinacub - January 26, 2009 reply

No, you won't, because...

… your results will be part of a much larger group. That’s the point of doing this.

Al Yellon - January 26, 2009 reply

TWSS

sorry – couldn’t resist…

ballhawk - January 26, 2009 reply

Only problem

I have is I will not be able to read Frustrated Fan’s projections.

wild bill - January 26, 2009 reply

The results are entirely public.

On the left hand side, there should be two views for you to use to browse the results.

cwyers - January 26, 2009 reply

LOL

I love sci fi, too.

daver - January 27, 2009 reply

I did my part

I was very optimistic for several players, but mostly I tried to replicate their numbers—from memory—from last year.
(Forgive me in advance for having Soriano strike out 200 times. If anybody can do it, it’s him.)

chilango2 - January 26, 2009 reply

Cwyers, this might be beyond your control

but the column sort function is working too literally – doesn’t seem to take into account a presumed leading zero for the single digit entries. For example, if you sort on home runs descending, the single digits (9,8,7,etc.) show up at the top of the list, before you got into any of the 40s, 30s, etc.

Not that big a deal now but could be troublesome as volume of data increases. Then again, may not be an issue at all as there seems to be means to a file export function.

ballhawk - January 26, 2009 reply

Bleed Cubbie Blue