From the Cubs' official release:
The Chicago Cubs today acquired right-handed pitcher Aaron Heilman from the Seattle Mariners for infielder Ronny Cedeno and left-handed pitcher Garrett Olson.
Heilman, 30, has gone 22-33 with nine saves and a 4.24 ERA (212 ER/450.1 IP) in 305 appearances (25 starts) in all or part of the last six seasons with the New York Mets. He has limited opponents to a .245 batting average (413-for-1687) during this time, including a .241 mark (227-for-940) by righthanders and a .249 average (186-for-747) by lefthanders. Heilman has struck out 395 batters in 450.1 innings, an average of 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings, while his 69 holds since the start of the 2005 season rank third in the National League.
The righthander recorded three consecutive seasons with a 3.62 ERA or lower starting with his first full major league campaign in 2005 when he went 5-3 with five saves and a 3.17 ERA (38 ER/108.0 IP) in 53 appearances, including seven starts. Starting in 2006 when he went 4-5 with a 3.62 ERA (35 ER/87.0 IP) in 74 appearances, Heilman has pitched exclusively in relief and averaged 78 appearances in each campaign.
Heilman turned in his strongest season in 2007 when he went 7-7 with one save and a 3.03 ERA (29 ER/86.0 IP) in 81 outings, setting career bests in wins, ERA and appearances. He ranked third in the National League in relief wins, fifth in appearances and tied for eighth with 22 holds. Heilman stranded 21 of his 29 inherited runners, including his first 16 of the season, and finished strong by posting a 1.85 ERA (8 ER/39.0 IP) in his final 36 outings starting July 22.
I have to say, I hate this deal. Essentially, it boils down to Pie and Cedeno for Heilman and Henry Williamson -- I'd have expected a better return for those two. There isn't much Heilman can do that Angel Guzman can't -- or, for that matter, Mitch Atkins.
Unless this is a precursor to another deal, I'm mystified.
4 recs | 492 comments
I'm with you, Al
Unless they are planning to throw him into the #5 starter mix. I suppose this could be a precursor to a deal that includes Marshall.
Still, I think that the Cubs destroyed Pie and Cedeno’s trade value more than the players themselves did.
Well, let’s wait and see. I suppose Hendry has earned that.
Shanghai Badger - January 28, 2009
What mystifies you about trading two players who are out of options?
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
the lack of talent in return?
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
It's not a huge secret they were out of options.
I don’t think you get much for two guys who have been given chances (albeit limited) and not performed.
An MLB pitcher and a live minor league arm is decent, and Heilman isn’t expensive (1.65 M).
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
I'd argue that....
….Olson is, what 25?, and would have been a lock for a spot on the pitching staff, so him being out of options doesn’t really matter.
Heilman was AWFUL last year. Him straight up for Olson would have been a bad trade.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
+1
It wasn’t Pie and Cedeno, it was Olson and Cedeno. We should have kept Olson.
dr stabbingworth - January 28, 2009
I'm not sure we get rid of Cedeno if we don't part with Olson.
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
Then release him, instead of forcing a bad deal
dr stabbingworth - January 28, 2009
So get absolutely nothing for him?
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
You could say that just happened with this trade....
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
Well, if you think an MLB pitcher (Heilman) is "nothing"
There’s not a hell of a lot I can tell you.
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
We needed a LHP, not an RHP
It’s almost like we had to throw in Olson in order for them to take Cedeno. I’m saying they should have kept Olson and released Cedeno.
dr stabbingworth - January 28, 2009
Cedeno
He could have been non-tendered this off season. If the Cubs wanted to be rid of him, thats all they had to do. Obviously Hendry and his scouts believe that Heilman has value.
dmlichte - January 28, 2009
Look at his stats from last year....
…..and get back with me on the whole “he’s a MLB pitcher” argument.
ESPECIALLY now that we’re even considering him as our 5th starter. Ugh.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
If we're using that kind of logic,
then take a look at Olson’s stats last year.
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
Everything I've read...
…has said that Olson was rushed to the majors and abused by the O’s because, well, they had no one else.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
If you're giving Olson the benefit of the doubt
…why not Heilman?
He was good every year until last year, when he was reportedly battling a knee injury all season.
Wreckard - January 28, 2009
His starting pitcher stats....
25 starts
5-13 W-L
5.93 ERA
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
Ugh.
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
Well thats not even one full seasons worth of data
bren - January 28, 2009
It's enough for me...
…..to put Marshall in there instead.
Marshall’s last 26 starts:
10-12 3.91
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
For comparison's sake
Jason Marquis’ last 26 starts: 11-9, 4.38
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
In Heilman's defense
those starts all came in his first 3 Major League seasons.
Now, either the Mets decided he couldn’t start, or they never gave him a fair shake at it.
Bill Potter - January 28, 2009
in Marshall's defense
those starts came in his first 3 mlb seasons
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
When are we going to learn?
Win/Loss is a bad stat to judge pitchers. Team defense affects that, and same goes for ERA. Here are some splits for Marquis and Heilman.
SO/9 H/9 BB/9
Marquis 4.4 10.1 3.1
Heilman 8.3 8.6 5.5
Twice the K’s means half the scoring opportunities for the other team to score. Plus Heilman had and impressive PRAA every year but last. Not crazy about the guy, but he has more going for him than Marquis. I like Marshall better, and this guy will probably be in the pen. Pie and Cedeno were not going to have an impact on this club and that was a factor for their falling value to other teams.
DEEEIP - January 29, 2009
when are you going to learn
comparing relief pitching stats to starting pitching stats is NOT comparable…
DartmouthCubsFan - January 29, 2009
Thats very unappealing but,
Olson’s stats were
26 starts
9-10 W-L
6.65 ERA
nick_reny - January 28, 2009
???????????
Lock for a pitching spot?
Lilly
Zambrano
Harden
Dempster
Marshall
Shark
Olson
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
Yes, pitching spot...
…didn’t say “starting” spot.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
I'm not impressed with this deal either.
Maybe Heilman will be trade bait in another deal. We’ll just have to wait and see.
tucsoncubsfan - January 28, 2009
Ding Ding Ding!
initram - January 28, 2009
Nah
Heilman is a Hendry guy. He’s a Cub now.
Cubinator - January 28, 2009
Hendry has raved about Heilman
since he was at Notre Dame
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
That makes him the pitching version of Michael Barrett.
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
So Heilman can't take a punch either?
santoswoodenlegs - January 28, 2009
where is the pic?
derv - January 28, 2009
not eveything requires illustration...
the human imagination is a fantastic tool, we all should use ours more often.
santoswoodenlegs - January 28, 2009
I agree --
We should all use our tool more often.
Oh, you meant imagination . . .
Shanghai Badger - January 28, 2009
I have observed the the task of which you have just completed.
santoswoodenlegs - January 28, 2009
TWSS
daver - January 28, 2009
yep
this makes Hendry feel better about his drafting Grant Johnson.
socalbob - January 28, 2009
and its no wonder why he drafted smardizjia
he is fightin irish through and through
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
We keep saying that
“Maybe Heilman will be traid bait in another deal”
But I doubt it. i think we’re all hoping that this isn’t the conclusion because these deals suck. We traded Pie away for nothing, and now we have a more expensive, inferior backup in Gathright. And on top of it, Olson was a decent enough arm to begin with.
But I just don’t believe Hendry has anything else up his sleeve. This isn’t a precursor to some other deal. Heilman is a Cub, for better or worse.
dr stabbingworth - January 28, 2009
I agree
my focus is shifting to hoping Heilman can put 2008 behind him and return to 2005-07 form
Cubinator - January 28, 2009
And there's nothing wrong with that
Heilman put up three straight years of outstanding relief work in 05-07. I mean really, really good work. What everybody’s bitching about I have no idea. Ronny Cedeno is a talented but baseball stupid ballplayer. And he’s not talented enough to compensate for his lack of baseball intelligence. He wil provide sparks to tease, but that’s it. A decent pitcching prospect and a 25th man for, outside of last year, a solid major league reliever at a reasonable price. He had a bad year last year, which is why he was available for so little.
davidalanu - January 28, 2009
+1, all the crying here about this trade makes no sense,
its not like we gave up a lot of talent to get this guy
DC Cubbie - January 28, 2009
you bite your tongue
Cedeno and Olson, all-stars* in two years
*(all-stars in the PCL)
SamuraiMike50 - January 29, 2009
Everybody is crying because this dashes any chance of a Peavy deal
Everybody thought Olson was going to SD. I think people are taking their frustrations out on Heilman because he’s the signal we’re not getting Peavy.
dr stabbingworth - January 29, 2009
+1
Cubbie-Tim - January 28, 2009
I don't get it...
But all of this MUST be a pre-cursor for something! Almost all of the pieces seem to be gone that would help us get Roberts. I guess Peavy must be on the radar screen for real!
HomerInTheGloamin' - January 28, 2009
how do you figure?
We just traded 2 players the Padres wanted….
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
the Peavy trade is officially dead
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
Not officially
but probably
Reddevil - January 28, 2009
Yep
It MUST be a pre-cursor. Because that is the only way in the world that these moves make one iota of sense.
TheHawk5 - January 28, 2009
We've been saying that for years.
There is never a precursor with this organization. What you see is what you get. There’s nothing behind the curtain, no great chess game leading to acquiring Jake Peavy or Brian Roberts or another useful player.
What we do have is a GM who will wait years and move mountains to get some player he inexplicably liked from the Creighton days or Maineri’s days at ND.
If Garrett Olson were really a precursor to a Peavy deal, Hendry would have taken care of the whole thing in one fell swoop as a 3-way trade.
D98 - January 28, 2009
word is Heilman will be put in the 5th spot
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
source?
That doesn’t make any sense unless Marshall is gone.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
source was post on ESPN
i think the cubs powers like marshall in the position he currently holds, long relief
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
Ugh.
I’d rather have it the other way around. Marshall starting, Heilman long relief.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
Me too, but the only other lefty is Cotts
dr stabbingworth - January 28, 2009
Speculation, At Best...
… he may compete for a spot… in San Diego.
initram - January 28, 2009
he may compete for spot in san diego...
… speculation at best
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
True... True
initram - January 28, 2009
I don't get the Bako and Uribe
interest. The LH bat for a backup catcher? Get real. Bako can’t hit his way out of a paper bag and they are going to sign him for the same money Hank White signed for with SD? What?! Then they’re interested in that hack of a hitter Uribe? Isn’t he just an older and pricier version of Cedeno? Please let this not go through and more moves be coming after Heilman.
blackhawk24 - January 28, 2009
We should just let
Hoff catch when Geo needs a day off!
jbertram - January 28, 2009
Or Jake Fox, or Koyie Hill, or maybe even Wellington Castillo
Jim Hendry continues to confuse and enrage me.
dr stabbingworth - January 28, 2009
Unfortunately
I think Cubs brass have decided that Fox can’t catch at the Major League level. Though he his putting himself in position to be a super utility-type player with pop off the bench.
If the Cubs don’t sign Uribe or Aurilia, Fox might not be a terrible option to backup at LF, RF, 3B and 1B (and emergency catch).
Bill Potter - January 28, 2009
And yes
Uribe is an older, more expensive, and worse SS than ONEDEC.
jbertram - January 28, 2009
older, more expensive yes
worse, not hardly. He’s a better and smarter fielder, and has more power, while not being any worse at getting on base (read: they both suck at it).
davidalanu - January 28, 2009
+1
daver - January 29, 2009
I agree
Hank signs for 750Thousand and Cubs sign Bako for 500thousand, please. Horrible.
I don’t understand the deal either.
I guess Lou wants players closer to his age.
Grockcubs - January 28, 2009
Those two,
two years back seemed liked they had promise/value. Did the Cubs hold onto them for too long? I still think Pie was never given a decent shot at the CF job.
I say it’s a precursor, Peavy will be coming…
slocs55 - January 28, 2009
What do we offer SD now?
I don’t see how trading 2 players SD wanted is being taken as a precursor for Peavy. Seriously.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
San Diego...
… was not interested in Pie. I thought they were with Cedeno, but perhaps they prefer another arm instead.
We just don’t know yet.
initram - January 28, 2009
2 players SD interested in: Cedeno and Olson.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
Interest in ONEDEC
had to be limited. I know they needed a SS, but really? ONEDEC for a lock for starting sounds like a horrible idea…then again they are the Padres…so maybe you are right.
jbertram - January 28, 2009
Padres are cost cutting....
….I’m thinking someone like Cedeno would be a good option, given that.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
Perhaps What Was Better...
… was the salary of Heilman as a starting pitcher?
initram - January 28, 2009
As opposed to Olson's?
Not sure what you’re saying….
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
As opposed to free agent starters
who might be looking in the area of $4 million +
Heilman is affordable, if nothing else. Personally, I like having him on the team; I don’t like what they gave up for him.
dr stabbingworth - January 28, 2009
maybe towers actaully looked at Olson's stats
and became not interested
just a thought
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
I don't know who SD wants,
I just don’t see Hendry making all of these small questionable moves without more to come.
slocs55 - January 28, 2009
Well...
get ready to wait for nothing.
Fishbone2 - January 28, 2009
alright fishbone
slocs55 - January 28, 2009
If it happens...
I will admit that I was wrong. I think the deal died at the Winter Meetings and with this trade, tells me it is still dead.
Fishbone2 - January 28, 2009
Goodbye Onedec
Hope you can turn it around in Seattle.
Mordecai - January 28, 2009
Onedec turning it around?
That would make him Cedeno.
Rev Gunia - January 28, 2009
Mariner fans love this deal. Sure, Olson will help them, but wait till they see Ronny actually play.
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
AUGH!!!
Right away “The Cubs, unsure of whether they will land Padres right-hander Jake Peavy,”
Even the Mariners are talking about Peavy and the Cubs lol
Cubbie-Tim - January 28, 2009
Henry Williamson
Better be pretty god damn good some day!
jbertram - January 28, 2009
Another move
I just do not understand. Gartright, Bradley, and this. Tradiing De Rosa. I am not happy with this off season moves.
wild bill - January 28, 2009
I don't get it either...
but this pisses me off less than DeRo or Wood.
jbertram - January 28, 2009
Last trade made sense to me. THIS one? Nope. I'm also mystified.
malicedoom - January 28, 2009
Nothing is making sense right now
But how long must we wait before it does start making sense?! We’re running out of offseason!
Sam Householder - January 28, 2009
Don't Worry (Joking)
(Joking) Mike Stanton is going to win a roster spot with the Cubs in spring training and prove to be that electric lefty that the team needs in the pen.
I don’t understand why the Cubs traded for the righty Heilman. The Cubs are losing a lefty, Olson, in the deal.
memphiscub - January 28, 2009
i really hope Jim sees something we don't
this off season puzzles me to say the least
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
I agree
there must be more to come.
slocs55 - January 28, 2009
Big overstatement
I don’t like this trade either but this is way over the top:
How about – stay healthy? I like Guzman’s arm, but you can’t count on him to stay healthy. And Mitch Atkins hasn’t pitched at the ML level. Lou wants proven veterans and Heilman is better than Kevin Gregg.
DGU - January 28, 2009
That's a good point.
Depending on players like Angel Guzman is what gets people fired.
cowsarecool220 - January 28, 2009
Then
why didn’t he trade away Kevin Gregg for Heilman?
Kinky Reggae - January 28, 2009
Because Kevin Gregg is making 4 times what Heilman is.
You can’t trade Gregg away; you can only hope he manages to be a Type B free agent and we get a draft pick.
DGU - January 28, 2009
Wasn't Heilman hurt for part of last year?
Or if he wasn’t out, could that explain his crappy numbers?
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
That's possible but I don't know the scope of the injury.
He could have just had a bad year.
DGU - January 28, 2009
I'll take a wait & see attitude
First of all, it might indeed be a precursor to another trade – if SD got cold feet on Olsen because of his abysmal numbers and liked Heilman better (or one of the other recently-obtained prospects) we could see a Peavy deal done still. Plus Heilman is a better pitcher than Olsen and Hoffpaiur’s bat off the bench is better than Cedeno’s.
Furthermore, Heilman’s 2008 looked nothing like the previous three. If he has a great spring and pitches well at the tail end of the rotation he’ll be an upgrade over Marquis. We’ll see on this one, there’s still plenty of time for trades before the season starts.
eamus-catuli - January 28, 2009
You would think the Cubs ended in last place
and the rest of the teams in the NL Central were at the top of the pack.
The Cubs are the only team in the division that is making moves. The rest of the teams in the NL Central seem to be sitting out the off-season.
It will be interesting to see the impact Hendry’s moves and the non-moves of the rest of the teams in the division.
cowsarecool220 - January 28, 2009
Major Moves By Other NL Central Teams
I know about the Cardinals getting Khalil Greene and the Brewers getting Trevor Hoffman. Other than that, I can’t think of any major moves by competitors in the division.
memphiscub - January 28, 2009
That is what is so puzzling about the off-season.
cowsarecool220 - January 28, 2009
I guess Hendry is trying to build a team that can win a playoff game
If the Cubs don’t win the division, it will be a monumental failure. So Jim is doing what he thinks is best. Unfortunately, I don’t agree with his vision.
dr stabbingworth - January 28, 2009
Which is why noting makes sense
Heilman is going to help in the playoffs? changing back up catchers is going to help in the playoffs? getting rid of wood and derosa is going to help in the playoffs?
Your starting 8 fielders, plus 8 or so pitchers, play in the playoffs. Other than Bradley, Hendry has changed none of these. I’ll acknowledge Bradley, but nothing else seems to be targeted toward the goal of winning a playoff series.
TC Cubby - January 28, 2009
You cant rely on Guzman
with his injury history, so its a false assumption to assume he can a contributor this year at the level of a Heilman (as low as that might be)
bren - January 28, 2009
This is a terrible move, Heilman's era was already awful in seattle
Its only bound to go up in Wrigley, hopefully Lou is smart enough to just use him as a reliever
CubsBall2202 - January 28, 2009
he never played in Seattle
bren - January 28, 2009
My bad, forgot he was in that deal with the mets
Still i wouldn’t call Shea a hitters park by any means
CubsBall2202 - January 28, 2009
nope
it’s a park for choke-artists :)
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
um, maybe Heilman will fit right in?
The Mets couldn’t close the deal to get to the postseason the last 2 years and the Cubs couldn’t win a game in the postseason the last 2 years.
cowsarecool220 - January 28, 2009
sounds like a match made in hell
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
I think Hendry is shedding salary for Yu Darvish
bren - January 28, 2009
If He Even Posts...
… didn’t he say something like he wanted to win 200+ or 250+ games in Japan?
initram - January 28, 2009
Yes
http://www.npbtracker.com/2008/11/yu-darvish-reiterates-lack-of-interest-in-mlb-dresses-as-a-bee/
dr stabbingworth - January 28, 2009
Is this sarcasm?
I can’t tell…
dr stabbingworth - January 28, 2009
Yes, but I hope he comes over at some point
bren - January 28, 2009
I agree
I don’t understand this deal. Maybe just maybe its a precursor or at least I hope.
cubsluver22 - January 28, 2009
what....what....what?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
You have to be freaking kidding me. What is Jim honstely doing with this move? After he traded away Pie, DeRosa, and Ceda it looked like he was making moves to rebuild the farm system somewhat and get younger prospects. Ths move completeley goes against that philosophy. Why couldn’t we have just traded Marquis for Heilman straightup when he was a Met? Now we have Heilman for basically Felix Pie and Cedeno, which I honesty think is the worst thing he could have done. Heilman and Vizcaino in the same pen together? yuck..
Forget about Peavy coming to the Cubs. Two players who would have gone there are no longer. I honestly am speechless right now. Hendry, what the hell are you doing?!?!
So this off season is basically:
Lose: Mark DeRosa, Kerry Wood, Jason Marquis, Jim Edmonds, Henry Blanco, Daryle Ward, Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno
Gain: Aaron Miles, Milton Bradley, Aaron Heilman, Luis Vizcaino, Paul Bako, Rich Aurelia
Good work Jim, in your efforts to rebound from your mistake of giving large contracts with back end deals, this is what happens. I have always been a Jim Hendry supporter, but the moves of this off season have shaken that support..
Chanman25 - January 28, 2009
When you put it that way, how can you NOT be pleased with it?
cwyers - January 28, 2009
take a look, which group of players would you clearly want?
Chanman25 - January 28, 2009
The one that has Milton Bradley and doesn't have Jason Marquis.
cwyers - January 28, 2009
well in the wake of everything else
couldnt they have just waited for the new owners payroll approval and kept DeRosa while still signing Bradley. If its true MB only wanted to come here, couldnt he have waited another three weeks?
If you believe that Ricketts has approved the 63M for Peavy, then wouldnt he have approved 30M for Bradley plus keeping DeRosa? (assuming the Peavy deal is now dead)
bren - January 28, 2009
If you make a lot of unwarranted assumptions about new ownership...
…and Bradley’s willingness to wait, and assume that trading DeRosa at the peak of his value wasn’t a good idea, then maybe. I think that trading DeRosa was the right move regardless.
cwyers - January 28, 2009
peak value
implies peak return
i think we sold at peak value but got mid-level return back
that’s not selling high
DartmouthCubsFan - January 28, 2009
Do you think the return for DeRosa
was greater than collecting the two draft picks in a year? Perhaps I’ve underestimated their quality. It seems to me that we “sold high” on DeRosa without getting anything more back than we could have if we’d sold low.
DGU - January 28, 2009
DeRo turns 34 next month........
……..and has really been a regular just three seasons in his pro career. What can you expect to get in return?
tville - January 28, 2009
that's certainly
the pessimistic viewpoint on him….
good lord, he was 18th in the national league last year in WARP
DartmouthCubsFan - January 28, 2009
And had a very nice 1 year contract.
DGU - January 28, 2009
I don't see Rich Aurilia on the roster yet.
Or is there something you know that we don’t?
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
Ricketts can't approve anything until
it’s OFFICIAL. If something happens in that process there is a chance that Rickett’s deal falls through.
Fishbone2 - January 28, 2009
Wow
I disagree, Milton “DL” Bradley
Grockcubs - January 28, 2009
Well, you forgot Kevin Gregg.
And I’ll take the AL leader in OPS, kthxbye.
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
who happened to play DH last year?
Not to mention hasn’t played in over 100 games and actually playing the field since 2004! Yeah, sure, lovely acquistion
Chanman25 - January 28, 2009
...and Hendry is not done yet
Think that’s what so many folks are hung up on right now. Every move in a vacuum. Jimbo is not done yet.
This doesn’t mean a certain #44 SP from SD is coming here, nor a certain leadoff guy that plays near the Chesapeake Bay is coming here. But Jimbo is not done yet. There’s more to go before/during ST and there’s more to go by 7/31 and 8/31.
The economic climate and which teams are out of contention by the ASB will have a HUGE impact on Hendry’s moves.
blackhawk24 - January 29, 2009
Don't forget about Gregg
But I still don’t like it, either.
Shanghai Badger - January 28, 2009
yeah and Gathright too, but thats missing the point
Chanman25 - January 28, 2009
Oh, don't worry
I tend to agree with you
Shanghai Badger - January 28, 2009
And, we don't have Rich Aurelia or Paul Bako yet.
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
Its looking like those are going to be our only options
plus any in house option we have for backups is worse anyway..
Chanman25 - January 28, 2009
ye gods.
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
you forgot
Howry
Cubbie-Tim - January 28, 2009
He's easy to forget
Clutche - January 28, 2009
and how(ry)!
Emelie - January 28, 2009
Like the deal
Now I still think getting Olson in the first place was stupid but Heilman is a massive upgrade over Olson. Olson is a pitcher that relies heavily on command and hasn’t yet been able to find it in a ton of innings already in the bigs. For everyone crying about contenders don’t let players play through mistakes there’s no reason Olson would ever see the field. I still think Ronny got a poor shake but whatever. This deal, in itself, is good. Maybe the preceding deals weren’t but this one is good.
uwbadger - January 28, 2009
a massive upgrade?
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
what role was Olson supposed to fill?
He has had zero success at the big league level and has average stuff. He has been absolutely crushed on top of walking the park and not striking anyone out. I’ll take a proven reliever over a 25 year old with avg stuff and no command any day of the weak.
uwbadger - January 28, 2009
I don't see how they lack money
when they dump DeRo and Pie and add Miles, Gaithright and Heilman. I like Heilman better than Pie & Olsen, and can’t see SD having interest in Heilman’s, who’s a little too old and expensive.. Maybe Marshall and Theriot are added to the SD deal? I just see Cedeno as having little value.
CubFaninCA - January 28, 2009
Heilman makes 1.65 M this year.
Not. Expensive.
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
And he's f-ing 30.
Not. Too. Old.
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
SD will prefer someone under $1 million
add mid 20’s..
CubFaninCA - January 28, 2009
IF they don't move #44
the entire remaining roster must be at the MLB minimum to stay under $40M. They’ve already committed >$34M to the 9 or so players under contract.
blackhawk24 - January 28, 2009
that's hendry's lunch money
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
if Theriot
goes, then Miles is our starting SS?
Now I don’t feel very good.
drewishdrewid - January 28, 2009
Theriot = Miles
Beyond the nickname, I don’t see much difference.
DGU - January 28, 2009
Theriot gets on base much more than miles.....
cubsmania - January 28, 2009
Theriot got on base more than Miles in '08.
What will they do in ’09?
DGU - January 28, 2009
I think the riot will still have him beat in that category
bren - January 28, 2009
Theriot plays better SS
ask STL fans about Miles at SS… my friend said:
Andre Fonseca - January 28, 2009
Or
a free agent?
CubFaninCA - January 28, 2009
We need to remember the bottom line here:
And that is a Peavy deal isn’t going to happen until Ownership is OFFICIAL. Rickett’s only won the right to negotiate exclusively with MLB. All the paperwork and that is hopefully supposed to be done at the END of Spring Training. No one is going to approve a increase in payroll until this happens.
Fishbone2 - January 28, 2009
The bottom line is we do NOT have the pieces to get Peavy
It will be centered around Vitters and Marshall, which I honestly don’t want to do now..
Chanman25 - January 28, 2009
+100
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
"It"
is probably not happening.
Fishbone2 - January 28, 2009
Cedeno and Olsen for Heilman
OK, how is this suppose to HELP the club? Heilman was awful alst year…I do not understand what this deal is suppose to do. I trust Hendry has some Bellicheck-type reason for making this trade. On the surface, it makes no sense!
cubprofessor - January 28, 2009
Many players who were awful the year before are good the year after.
See Dempster, Ryan.
DGU - January 28, 2009
Yep
sounds like Heilman had knee troubles. I like that he can start.
CubFaninCA - January 28, 2009
And many players who sucked one year, continued their suckage a year later...
See Jones, Jacque.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
See Patterson, Corey
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
Different situation
We didn’t have to give up players to have that good year from Dempster last season.
Chanman25 - January 28, 2009
The point is that a guy who struggled one year can become good.
Jim Hendry has managed to pull a ton of formerly-good players off the scrap heap. Jim Edmonds, Jason Kendall, etc.
DGU - January 28, 2009
yes, for litte money or little to spare
I mean after all we traded Bowen for Kendall. This would be a much better analogy if we signed him from FA
Chanman25 - January 28, 2009
Look, I've said I don't like the trade.
But I’m also contending that of all our non-Dempter-Bradley acquisitions this off-season, Heilman is probably the best (in terms of helping us win in 2009).
DGU - January 28, 2009
i can agree to that
but it doesn’t say a whole lot about our off season
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
wow...
i think i officially hate everything we’ve done this offseason….
DartmouthCubsFan - January 28, 2009
Im confused....
Why trade cedeno and olson for heilman, and then talk about signing uribe????
Why not keep cedeno instead of uribe, and have olsen instead of heilman? I think we would defenitely be better off that way.
cubsmania - January 28, 2009
Lou didn't like Cedeno...
On or off the field.
Fishbone2 - January 28, 2009
I can understand that...
but I don’t think he’ll like uribe either…..
cubsmania - January 28, 2009
I agree.
They have some depth issues.
Fishbone2 - January 28, 2009
yea and i dont like the fact they replaced olson for heilman...
We have plenty of right handed arms in the bullpen…atleast olson was another lefty to mix in.
And I don’t buy that heilman with be the 5th starter.
cubsmania - January 28, 2009
I don't either.
However, Marquis or Heilman? I’d gamble on Heilman.
Fishbone2 - January 28, 2009
last thing the Cubs clubhouse needs is a murderer
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
Sigh
Wikipedia
dr stabbingworth - January 28, 2009
i still don't trust him
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
LOL, yeah, let's forget that he helped...
…the White Sox get to the playoffs last year when Crede went down. He could go on a shooting spree in the clubhouse.
daver - January 28, 2009
Ask Sox fans their feelings on Uribe
2 in my office were giggling at the prospect of the Cubs getting him
wicubfan - January 28, 2009
That's because they're looking only at his hitting...
…and not his defensive abilities. He anchored their infield last season. Again, I freely admit he’s an awful hitter, but as a defensive backup, he could really pay dividends.
daver - January 28, 2009
we will have to put a metal detector in the clubhouse
uribe could be packing
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
Well, Fontenot's an avid hunter...
…maybe they could compare firearms. See? Another reason to pick him up – clubhouse chemistry.
daver - January 28, 2009
HA!
just dont let then get a ride t the game by LaRussa. Not good to mix alcohol and firearms
Cubbie-Tim - January 28, 2009
well now the move makes sense :)
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
You're right...
… about Uribe. He settled in nicely to his role last season and played an excellent 3rd base.
Juan Uribe will forever have my respect for his contributions to the 2005 Sox 99 wins and 11-1 record in the post-season. Uribe clinched the last couple outs with superb plays at SS.
Thank you Juan Uribe!
DrCrawdad - January 28, 2009
Yeah, I seem to recall Uribe...
…going into the stands to catch a pop fly for one of the final outs in one of the ’05 World Series games. The fans sitting there – Astros fans, IIRC – graciously leaned back out of his way. As a Cubs fan, I found the irony rich and compelling.
daver - January 29, 2009
Yup...
but everybody I was told before would reach for the ball. Yeah right.
Uribe’s play was shown countless time on SportsCentre. He did a good job catching that bad boy and was just a little lucky he didn’t get hurt.
blackhawk24 - January 29, 2009
HA!
Take a look at the ‘Similar Batters’ portion of Uribe’s Baseball Reference page…
http://www.baseball-reference.com/u/uribeju01.shtml
steinmer - January 28, 2009
Hendry
Is just making moves for the sake of change….maybe he took Obama’s theme “Time For Change” too serious
Cubbie-Tim - January 28, 2009
i got the same feeling
he reminds me of a rookie fantasy GM making trades just to make trades.
I normally support Hendry’s moves, and I really dislike Cedeno, but I just can’t understand what happened here.
Andre Fonseca - January 28, 2009
if people are going to hate on this offseason
this is the last roster move people should be complaining about.
uwbadger - January 28, 2009
well its the cherry on top, I think
Chanman25 - January 28, 2009
ah, Cherry was moved in 2007....
cowsarecool220 - January 28, 2009
I'd argue it's possibly our WORST move this offseason...
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
Then I'd argue you don't know what the hell you're talking about.
The pieces involved:
Backup SS (out of options)
LHP (5th starter at best, long reliever maybe, AAA starter maybe)
Possible 5th starter/long reliever
Yup, there’s a lot of volatility there. Worst move ever.
It’s akin to pissing and moaning about a backup catcher. These players are going to be the difference of what, 2-3 wins? If anything, in Heilman, we got the best upside guy for this year.
The Cubs should win the Central by better than 2-3 wins.
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
Bildo, dude.....
…you can disagree with me. That’s fine. But, seriously, chill the fuck out.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
Oh, get a helmet.
Nothing I said was that bad.
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
"that bad" being the operative phrase....
…but, hey, whatever.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
Seriously
You act like he attacked you personally. He’s just saying we gave away nothing but hope. if Olson and Cedeno were never mentioned in Peavy deals no one would care. and for the record Derosa was the worst deal. A championship caliber team shouldn’t be trading a guy of that importance for 3 prospects.
gocubs526 - January 28, 2009
thanks for your input...
..but you missed the whole point.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
Before you all start ledge-jumping over this deal...
Yes, Heilman was lousy last season. 81 ERA+, 1.592 WHIP, 1.739 K/BB and all that. Fine. But from 2005-07 he was a damn good reliever. In fact, his ERA+ and peripheral stats over those seasons look an awful lot like… Jake Peavy’s! Seriously, look it up. When you put his 2008 season up against the rest of his career, one word comes to mind: FLUKE. I don’t think this is a great trade, mind you, but I’d much rather gamble on Heilman returning to his previous form than gamble on Olson, Cedeno, or Pie actually having a positive impact on the team.
hip2bsquare - January 28, 2009
Exactly right.
Heilman had knee problems last year and didn’t exactly like his situation anyway.
Not a blockbuster trade by any means. But nothing to bitch and complain about getting rid of an out of favor out of options back up SS and a 25 year old that posted a plus 6 ERA last year.
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
if he put up those #'s w/ the padres
think what he could do w/ a contender like the cubs
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
comparing starter's ERA+ to relievers ERA+
is not apples to apples
nor is pulling Heilman’s relief stats and assuming they’ll continue as a starter in a more difficult park to pitch in
DartmouthCubsFan - January 28, 2009
I agree that the comparison was flawed...
But my main point still stands – Heilman is a far better pitcher than last season’s stats showed. How he might fare in a potential move to the starting rotation, I can’t predict. But it seemed to me like everyone was just looking at how he did last season and then b*tching about the trade, which is just plain silly.
hip2bsquare - January 28, 2009
that's fair
n/t
DartmouthCubsFan - January 28, 2009
Yes, that's reasonable
My main objection is that I want Heilman to be a SP in a pitcher’s park . . . .
Shanghai Badger - January 28, 2009
+1
A reasonable assessment. This deal is hardly a blockbuster, but Aaron Heliman was a bullpen guy. They have good years, they have bad years. They have good luck, they have bad luck. I’m not doing backflips at the thought of him in a Cubs uniform, but he could turn out to be a decent return for Cedeno.
daver - January 28, 2009
just ask bob howry about good years and... well...
SamuraiMike50 - January 28, 2009
Yeah, let's ask him about...
2006, when he pitched over 76 innings for the Cubs and had a 71:17 K:BB rato. Or 2007, when he pitched over 81 innings and had a 72:19 K:BB ratio. Like I said, all but the most elite bullpen guys go up and down year to year. Heilman’s an experienced MLB arm – Hendry could’ve gotten a lot less for Cedeno, such as a couple of go-nowhere minor leaguers or, well, nothing. Cedeno was done with the Cubs anyway.
daver - January 28, 2009
You guys are making me scratch my head
Do you really think we could have gotten more for Pie and Cedeño? Cedeño is a lifetime .639 OPS guy in 904 major league at bats, who loses some of his defensive value because of mental lapses and stupid errors. I won’t discuss Pie because that’s been done to death already. In the end we are talking about two guys who are out of options and have performed pretty terrible at the ML level. Heilman was a very good reliever from 2005-07, and is a guy you can put in the starting rotation if you need it (and at a very reasonable price too). If you think Pie and Cedeño should get you more than that, then you should change your job and get into the GM business.
Luis - January 28, 2009
I think people are looking at it as...
Olsen was supposed to be part of a Peavy trade and the chances seem to have slimmed on him being a Cub.
Fishbone2 - January 28, 2009
That is a pretty good assumption.
Luis - January 28, 2009
I agree...
I don’t think Hendry would actually trade away a guy or guys that he could have swapped for Peavy. Would anyone be that stupid? Meaning, there is nothing on the Peavy front and if there is, these guys weren’t going to be in that deal.
Fishbone2 - January 28, 2009
Rec'd
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
Again, +1
At least Hendry got something for Cedeno. Many people seem to be assuming that Ronny was San Diego bound, but there’s simply no guarantee of that.
daver - January 28, 2009
Yes, I do think we could have gotten more.
SS is a terribly thin position right now. Cedeno is a true SS, who has issues, but has shown an ability to hit right-handed pitching in the MLs. He had value.
DGU - January 28, 2009
Huh?
Cedeño is a lifetime .680 OPS hitter against RHP, with a sparkling .304 OBP. Is that what you call “ability to hit right-handed pitching in the MLs”?
Just because the Cubs lack depth in the position doesn’t mean other teams are going to give up more for a guy who has shown very little in the majors.
Luis - January 28, 2009
Btw, Cedeño also has a .314 BAbip versus RHP......
Luis - January 28, 2009
Cedeno was bad under Dusty and that skews his lifetime #s.
Last year he hit .282/.351/.379, which is not too far from what Theriot did v. RHP.
DGU - January 28, 2009
Clutching at straws?
So you’re telling me that you’re going to dismiss all his 2006 campaign because Dusty was the manager, and that as evidence to you claim you are going to use his 2008 numbers against RHP, which consist of a sample of 103 at bats with a .337 BAbip?
Luis - January 28, 2009
ajusting his
Luis - January 28, 2009
ajusting his
Luis - January 28, 2009
If you adjust his 2008 numbers against RHP for BAbip you get
.245 AVG
.314 OBP
.342 SLG
for a .656 OPS. Basically the same Cedeño that has never hit in the majors.
Luis - January 28, 2009
No, I'm looking at the fact that he was 23
and playing under a manager who did not want him to succeed at Neifi’s expense.
You can adjust Ronny’s stats all you want. CHONE predicts a .281/.332/.412 2009 and that has value with average SS defense behind it.
DGU - January 28, 2009
Holy crap...you're seriously saying this? Really? About Ronny Cedeno?
And last year Miles hit .317/.345/.407 vs. RHP….and as for playing SS, Cedeno isn’t that good at it.
santoswoodenlegs - January 28, 2009
He was the best defensive SS on the team
Better than Miles or Theriot.
Wreckard - January 28, 2009
This is true....
and almost meaningless. The entire Cubs organization is a black, empty hole at the SS position.
santoswoodenlegs - January 28, 2009
rec'd
Emelie - January 28, 2009
Cedeno is a maddening player. That doesn't make SS any less thin in the MLs right now.
And CHONE’s prediction is CHONE’s prediction. Believe it or not. (There, I left you an opening for a crazy Ripley’s pic.)
DGU - January 28, 2009
I don't think GM's around the league are going to look at CHONE's prediction of Cedeno...
and equate that with value.
santoswoodenlegs - January 28, 2009
Sure, the GMs have better programs than CHONE
but I cited it to counter Luis’ suspect devaluing of Cedeno’s real stats by an unexplained method of reducing it by BABIP. If Luis was right, CHONE, who knows all about BABIP and such, wouldn’t give Ronny that nod.
Ronny Cedeno is underrated by Cub fans because we saw him do too many bone-headed things. He was as good last year as Orlando Cabrera, whom some Cub fans wanted to be our new SS.
DGU - January 28, 2009
Predictions are partly based on
Minor league numbers. I would bet that if CHONE predicted Cedeño’s numbers based only on his major league numbers you’d get a much less favorable prediction.
And all I did was adjust his numbers to a .300 BAbip, which is basically the average for any given year in the majors. Your argument that he hit RHP based on a sample of 100 or so at bats with an almost .340 BAbip is a lot more bogus that me adjusting his numbers based on an outcome that is agreed by basically everybody to be mere luck. Now, if you want to argue that a .340 BAbip is based on Cedeño’s talent, then go ahead.
Luis - January 28, 2009
Cedeño's BAbip in the majors: .300..........
Luis - January 28, 2009
Luis -
There are a number of things here.
1. There’s a reason why good projection systems take into account minor league numbers – because more often than not minor league numbers are good for projecting major league performance.
2. Pitchers’ BABIP tend to normalize, but hitters’ not so much. Your method is suspect. But perhaps you can provide me with a link that will explain why doing what you did is better at projecting a hitter’s future perfomance than CHONE’s method.
DGU - January 28, 2009
........
When did I say I was projecting Cedeño’s numbers?
I said Cedeño has never hit in the majors. You said he hit RHP in the major. I countered that claim based on the fact that your whole evidence is 100 at bats with a .337 BAbip. For whatever reason you decided to being up his projections for the 2009 season, which had nothing to do with what we were arguing, which was actual performance at the ML level so far.
Luis - January 28, 2009
See below, Luis.
You can discount his 2008 as being 100 ABs. Fine, I amend my point. Ronny hit RHP for 100 ABs last year.
DGU - January 28, 2009
He did no such thing
He was lucky in those 100 ABs. The fact that you are even arguing this is just incredible to me.
With that logic you can devise any type of splits (i.e., games started at 1PM versus games started at 2PM) and come up with evidence of “hitting”.
Luis - January 28, 2009
I guess my response would be...
…the Cubs got back exactly how much value you can get for a line like that – a used bullpen arm.
daver - January 28, 2009
You are funny
I thought we were arguing if Ronny has ever hit in the majors. Your point was that he hit RHP. When it became apparent that your argument that he has hit RHP doesn’t hold much water, you turn to CHONE predictions. Whatever.
Luis - January 28, 2009
Funny as in "Ha-ha"?
1. I argued that he has hit RHP.
2. To prove this, I quoted you stats.
3. You then lopped a number off those stats to say that he was lucky.
4. I assumed that you were talking, then, not about what he did, but about what he would do, and quoted a respected projection system.
5. Now, you’re arguing that you actually proved Ronny didn’t hit.
6. So, to respond now, and also to remain “funny” I’m going to argue that Ronny’s BABIP + his Fpct multiplied by his RC divided by his PO as a LF is an imaginary number, and thererfore, I am able to imagine his real triple slash stats however I want.
7. Therefore he did hit RHP.
DGU - January 28, 2009
Let's just make it clear for the record
That you think the following line of .282/.351/.379 with a BAbip of .337 is evidence of being “able to hit” in the majors. That should put into light any further discussions.
The fact that Cedeño has a career .300 BAbip in the majors should make it even clearer that those numbers (marginal to begin with) are highly skewed by luck… but I guess that’s just not clear enough for you to see it.
Luis - January 28, 2009
Luis
You need to decide what you are arguing.
Either you are arguing Ronny’s ability to hit in the MLs, in which case, his CHONE projection is relevant or you are arguing whether Ronny did hit in the MLs, in which case his basic 2008 stats are relevant.
DGU - January 28, 2009
Who's more likely to repeat their 2008 season?
If Heilman (who comes with a ready-made nickname for the drinks of Old Style), moves into Marquis’ role as the 5th starter, then my question becomes who is more likely to repeat their 2008?
I don’t see Heilman continuing to regress, especially if the knee is sound. Additionally, this will be his first time put into a rotation on a consistent basis (he has made 25 starts, none since 2005).
Marquis on the other hand, had a strong 2008, filling in to the No. 5 spot effectively.
However, given the option entering 2009, which would you rather have?
Bill Potter - January 28, 2009
Another thing to consider
is the years the team has control of a player. Marquis will be a free agent after the 2009 season. I believe Heilman won’t be a free agent until after the 2010 season.
I would say Heilman has more upside than Marquis. It will be interesting to see who has the better year in 2009.
cowsarecool220 - January 28, 2009
According to Cot's
Heilman will be a free agent after 2009, same as Marquis.
Bill Potter - January 28, 2009
No he is not an FA till 2010 according to the wires
Doggie Stalker - January 28, 2009
Cot's says his ML service time is 4.123
which would mean he would be a free agent after 2010 (after he’s accumulated 6 full ML seasons of service time).
He is arbitration eligible so his current contract is for 2009 but he’s under control in 2010.
cowsarecool220 - January 28, 2009
Fair enough. Thanks for clearing that up.
So, in the interests of payroll, Heilman is a decent deal, especially if he matches or beats Marquis’ production.
Bill Potter - January 28, 2009
Seems we are not only xconfused about this trade itself, but the service time and FA status after 2009. Here is what I find
http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=626
Proper Name: Aaron Michael Heilman
Born on: November 12, 1978
Birthplace: Logansport, IN, USA
Height: 6.0
Weight: 220 lbs.
Pronounced: HIEL-man
Bats: R
Throws: R
Pos: RHRP
College: U. of Notre Dame
Age: 30
Service Time: 2.123
Agent: Mark Rodgers
Signed thru: 2008 season
Free Agent After: 2010 season
Cubbie-Tim - January 28, 2009
His service time has to be more than that
I would venture to guess that Cot’s has it much closer in terms of contract and service time.
Bill Potter - January 29, 2009
Marquis...and I was NOT a Jason fan.....
….but you gotta factor in salaries, sad to say.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
So Heilman makes less and is a FA after 2009 (according to Cot's)
so wouldn’t that put him ahead of Marquis, in terms of contract?
Bill Potter - January 28, 2009
Yes, if we figure in contract, absolutely....
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
So then it becomes who would have more value this year
based upon contract and performance. I’m leaning towards Heilman on that front – I just think Marquis is a more likely candidate to regress statistically.
Bill Potter - January 28, 2009
..and I guess I'm looking at....
…the fact that Heilman hasn’t been a starter in 3 years.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
Understandable.
it’s a risk, but if Heilman is able to start (and I think he can), I see him projecting better than Marquis.
Bill Potter - January 28, 2009
And for over 6M less.
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
who knows
Like everything if we win next year and these guys do well its a great move, if we dont then these moves suck. so in my expert views……these are good moves or they suck
cubsfaninkc - January 28, 2009
the good news, I guess
Is that NONE of the Central Divison seems to want to be stronger than last year, even with some key losses.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
There isn't anything Heilman can do that Atkins and Guzman can't?
Al, you can’t really believe that. Heilman was pretty bad last year, but before that he had three consecutive very good years in a Major League bullpen. Atkins has never been a reliever, much less a major leaguer. Guzman has had very limited success as a ML reliever, but can’t stay healthy.
There’s a huge difference between Heilman and Atkins/Guzman.
Brett Taylor - January 28, 2009
except having been there and done that
Ivy Walls - January 28, 2009
I know one
Heilman can stay healthy. Guzman can’t. I’m not saying that the deal was anythign great but the Cubs absolutely positively should not count on Guzman for anything.
As for Atkins, who knows.
rlpete - January 28, 2009
Some of these posts are a little ridiculous.
All the Henry Blanco love is great. I never saw a lifetime .227 hitter loved so much. And Heilman did have three great years before last year. Some of the same people who bitched about gettong Olson are now complaining about losing him. And don’t get me started on Cedeno. Why can’t you just wait until the final roster is set before you go nuts? Hendry obviously had a plan going into this offseason. Let him execute it. Their will be plenty of time to critcize the guy that brought you the last two division titles.
Rick B - January 28, 2009
you're evaluating
pieces of the puzzle
people complaining here are confused about the whole puzzle
We were told Olson, Cedeno, etc were targets for Peavy, instead we get Aaron Heilmann
We were told we had a great prospect who couldn’t be included in a Brian Roberts trade because he was our CF of the future, he was now just shipped out along with another piece for Aaron Heilmann
DartmouthCubsFan - January 28, 2009
Who told you that?
Did Jim Hendry say Olson and Cedeno were being traded for Peavy? And after watching him with your own eyes, did you think Pie was the next Willie Mays?
Rick B - January 28, 2009
a ton of different journalists/scouts/reporters
n/t
DartmouthCubsFan - January 28, 2009
That's your mistake
They have to write something. I don’t know of any solid evidence that the Padres wanted Cedeno other than they traded Greene so they needed a shortstop. Presto, the media started saying Cedeno to the Pads.
rlpete - January 28, 2009
out of curiosity
what would be solid evidence?
since we get… i don’t know 99.9% of our information from the media
DartmouthCubsFan - January 28, 2009
Because it’s January 28th…there’s a 1/2 foot of snow outside…and I hate winter.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
plus
in probably 4 weeks, there won’t be any big moves made anyway. The offseason is coming to a close, and it aint looking good..
Chanman25 - January 28, 2009
I still don't see what is not looking good.
Rick B - January 28, 2009
Yup, not looking good at all.
4 really good starters.
A lineup of (and I’m not trying to spark lineup debate):
Soriano
Fukudome/Johnson
Ramirez
Bradley
Lee
Soto
Fontenot
Theriot
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
Last year in spring training
We picked up Reed Johnson, and shortly after that, we picked up Jim Edmonds. I’m fairly upset about the offseason program so far, but there’s still plenty of time for Hendry to make more deals (although I don’t think any are coming).
dr stabbingworth - January 28, 2009
I hear ya.
Rick B - January 28, 2009
You guys seem to be missing the point
Heilman is about today, 2009. Olson, Cedeno, Pie was not.
Now if this trade engineers a Peavy deal which it can also address the here and now.
Bullpen: Marmol, Gregg, Cotts, Wuertz, Vizcaino, that is five experienced arms. Marshall is the long reliever and Heilman is the 7th.
It allows the Cubs deal Hart, Guzman or Wuertz. I also think that Samardz is destined for a starters role now.
Ivy Walls - January 28, 2009
What package is there that will land us Peavy?
Chanman25 - January 28, 2009
I think it involves Brian Roberts somehow....
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
how? Please explain
n/t
blackhawk24 - January 28, 2009
I was joking....
I figure any Peavy post has to have a Roberts mention or the axis of the earth might tilt.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
Oh man...
I thought you were on to something.
blackhawk24 - January 28, 2009
I wrote this up higher but feel like it needs to be restated:
I don’t think Hendry would actually trade away a guy or guys that he could have swapped for Peavy. Would anyone be that stupid? Meaning, there is nothing on the Peavy front and if there is, these guys weren’t going to be in that deal. He knows what flies and what wouldn’t.
Fishbone2 - January 28, 2009
For Peavy
Vitters, Marshall, Guzman, Castillo, Hart, Archer
DGU - January 28, 2009
well that would do it, but then our entire farm system is depleted
Chanman25 - January 28, 2009
And what would we need a farm system for?
DGU - January 28, 2009
Competing in the future
Filling in holes this year
Cost-controlled talent so that we can afford players like D. Lee and Soriano
Midseason trade bait in case Z or Lee or Aramis go down with an injury
dr stabbingworth - January 28, 2009
I think that was sarcasm . . . .
Shanghai Badger - January 28, 2009
I hope
Chanman25 - January 28, 2009
No
thanks.
DamonBerryhillsMitt - January 28, 2009
OK for all of them except Marshall
n/t
blackhawk24 - January 28, 2009
Replace Guzman and add Stevens
and that may be the deal..
CubFaninCA - January 28, 2009
we can still get Peavy
Vitters, Marshall, Hart, Stevens, and another pitching prospect. remember were taking the whole Peavy contract and that’s the biggest part of the trade.
gocubs526 - January 28, 2009
and the longer Hendry can wait, the lower the price will drop
price in terms of number of return players.
blackhawk24 - January 28, 2009
+1
initram - January 28, 2009
That's not necessarily true...
as the season gets under way the cost of the Peavy deal will depend on -
-the ownership situation of the Padres/Cubs
-the performance of other particular clubs Peavy would consider
-the aggressiveness of clubs that need pitching and are in a position to win
Don’t just think that we’re going to be holding all the cards in 2 months. San Diego could very well just stand pat right now and have 3-4 teams make substantial offers for Peavy by the time the deadline rolls around.
santoswoodenlegs - January 28, 2009
Forgot Gaudin?
..
CubFaninCA - January 28, 2009
I don't know? I'll leave that to Hendry and Towers.
But I don’t think we’re doomed if we don’t get Peavy.
Rick B - January 28, 2009
2009 v. 2008
Heilman could be OK, and Cedeno frustrated Cubs fans more than any recent player I can remember.
The Cubs won a lot of games last year but did not win the World Series. Hendry’s moves have, for the most part, been solid during his tenure. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt this off-season. He analyzed the roster, payroll, contract statuses, available players, etc., and is doing another round of team-building to try to bring us a World Series championship.
ExNorthsider - January 28, 2009
Headline: Jake Peavy traded to Seattle Mariners
daeviant - January 28, 2009
Don't you think Henry would make that deal if he could?
What’s he supposed to do?
arrowman - January 28, 2009
No more Onedec?
Who’s name will we use in vain this season in the game threads? ;-)
sue369 - January 28, 2009
HEILMAN!
though that may be offensive to a few….
Chanman25 - January 28, 2009
Namlieh....
….is so hard to pronounce though! :)
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
And it looks too much like nambla
daeviant - January 28, 2009
I vacationed there last summer.
digitalbenjamin - January 28, 2009
*slowly backing out of the room*
ho-lee god….
:)
CubsWin!Oregon - January 28, 2009
Namibia! Namibia!
I meant Namibia!
digitalbenjamin - January 29, 2009
lol! let's hope so!
Emelie - January 29, 2009
Namibia spelled backwards is Aibiman.
Suspiciously close to Aurilia.
Al Yellon - January 29, 2009
You cannot take Old Styles name in vain.
This man was made for Wrigley Field and Jake, the neighborhood guy.
Bill Potter - January 28, 2009
I dont get it either...
I just think Hendry has made a few bad deals this winter. You can’t always make great trades…. it was bound to balance out. If Hendry turns all of this offseasons nonsense into something special, then hey… he deserves a raise and some praise. If i were to bet though, I just think he’s made some bad deals just so these players could get more playing time elsewhere.
TheHawkRules - January 28, 2009
Appears the Cubs have some pitchers to deal??
Since they got Marmol, Gregg, Cotts, Wuertz, Vizcaino, Marshall ,Heilman, Gaudin, Hart, Guzman and Stevens
CubFaninCA - January 28, 2009
I don't see any scenario where Hart, Vizcaino, or Stevens make the big league club in April.
Guzman, maybe.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
maybe, but
where does vizcaino go?
CubFaninCA - January 28, 2009
To the Cub 'pen
No one is going to take on that contract.
Shanghai Badger - January 28, 2009
Watch For This Headline
Seattle trades Olson to SD for Peavy, and Cedeno to Balt for Roberts
Cubbie-Tim - January 28, 2009
And the followup headline.....
“500 BCBers hang themselves after MLB trade”
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
If they make two bad trades, will 5000 of you morons hang themselves?
Normal Cub Fan - January 28, 2009
Nice first post.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
Um, I'm not sure your math is right.
Wouldn’t two bad trades mean 1,000 of us morons would hang ourselves (500 X 2)?
daver - January 28, 2009
He's using this math:
number of BCB’ers hanging themselves = 500 × 10^(number of trades -1)
So this way even 50 of us will hang ourselves if he makes zero trades.
But since he’s referring to the rest of us as morons he’s not worth a rats’ ass of a reply, but hey that’s just me Daver…
blackhawk24 - January 28, 2009
Yeah, that brillant missive above...
…is still his one and only post, so we probably shouldn’t spend too much time on this.
daver - January 29, 2009
Or completely hang him.
If he’s been lurking here long, the use of the word morons may be warranted.
N Oakley - January 29, 2009
That's "MORANS"
Shanghai Badger - January 29, 2009
thats hilarious..
n/t
wicubfan - January 28, 2009
Crazy
Some of you guys just floor me whenever a Cubs deal is made. I’d take a wild guess and say that 90% of the deals made over the course of the past few years have been wildly panned by some of you. Falling in love with mediocre players is a dangerous thing yet it continues to be done here.
Give Heilman some credit. His ERA was high a year ago but he also had a knee injury that quite possibly could have limited his effectiveness. His track record is as a bullpen arm with ERA’s under the mid 3’s and a WHIP in the low 1’s. Good enough for a spot in this bullpen that’s for certain.
But stop any nashing of teeth over either Olson, Pie or Cedeno. Much like what happened with ragamuffins Patterson and Murton when they were dealt a year ago, other teams will now figure out what the Cubs figured out, but apparently some of their fan base didn’t, and that was that these guys are pedestian major league players. They’ve played their way out of the picture on their own merit.
Perhaps Heilman will do nothing of consequence as a Cub. But the reailty is that they didn’t give up much at all for a major league bullpen member. To cry that this deal is horrible is laughable.
krummy12 - January 28, 2009
gnashing
spellcheck
krummy12 - January 28, 2009
Someone opposed trading Murton and Patterson....
…to get Rich Harden?
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
Well, there were a lot of concerns about...
…Harden’s injury history and, IIRC, his GB:FB ratio or some such thing.
daver - January 28, 2009
i think it was more
the Gallagher/Donaldson part of the package people were concerned about
DartmouthCubsFan - January 28, 2009
Gallagher caused all the consternation
on this site, almost as much as Vitters is now.
blackhawk24 - January 28, 2009
Now only Fuld is left for the Cubs
as the Tigres shoot for the championship ( the tied the series at 2-2 last night) Ronnie looked pretty bad in the field. I will never forget his overrunning 2nd base on a walk though.
Doggie Stalker - January 28, 2009
Isn't That The Play...
… that earned him the ONEDEC name?
initram - January 28, 2009
IIRC
ONEDEC started being used when he started to “turn things around.” I don’t remember when particularly it started.
JimboJet - January 28, 2009
Yer Right...
… and this bonehead play solidified him as being the reverse ONEDEC player…
initram - January 28, 2009
This is correct.
It all started in the game threads when people started using the epithet “Cedeno!” whenever anything horrible happened. Then, at one point in the early part of the season, Ronny started turning things around (I recall a certain grand slam against the Mets) and “Cedeno!” turned into “Onedec!”
daver - January 28, 2009
santoswoodenlegs - January 28, 2009
Ah, a classic.
Maybe you can pass it along to someone on the SBN Mariner’s blog.
daver - January 28, 2009
I'm actually considering that...but I really want to know who's name is going to replace CEDENO! now?
santoswoodenlegs - January 28, 2009
Aaron Miles?
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
Eh, I dunno.
Miles is no DeRo, but he does seem to have a decent head on his shoulders. Ah hell, just make it Theriot.
daver - January 28, 2009
That was my first inclination...
perhaps Al can put up a poll on the front page. All the damn double clutching is more than enough for me to yell THERIOT! in times of duress.
santoswoodenlegs - January 28, 2009
Peavy
who else………
Cubbie-Tim - January 28, 2009
Bradley
yeldarb!!!
Chanman25 - January 28, 2009
I'm going to miss that
Emelie - January 28, 2009
I printed that
off and have it hanging on my desk. Now I don’t know what to do with it.
sue369 - January 28, 2009
Send it to a Mariners fan of your choice.
I’ll post it over at Lookout Landing.
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
Posted!
Let’s see how Mariners fans react to this.
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
So far, they seem confused.
hip2bsquare - January 28, 2009
That's because
they’ve never seen Ronnie play. They get the picture once he is called out after over sliding a base.
cowsarecool220 - January 28, 2009
Oh, I don't know
I work with an avid Mariner’s fan and he seemed pretty amused by it. I thought it was gret, very well done Al.
snowyman28 - January 29, 2009
Someone should post the Cedeno threat level chart
Introduce it to them nice and early so they can get used to it.
dr stabbingworth - January 29, 2009
see the 4th post up
Al already did
Emelie - January 29, 2009
Oops
Reading comprehension fail on my part.
dr stabbingworth - January 29, 2009
happens to the best of us ;-}
Emelie - January 29, 2009
So what does the new chart look like?
digitalbenjamin - January 29, 2009
I thought we tried ONEDEC
to break him off that but I can’t be sure. I was at the game sitting in Al’s section and even Dave who has probably seen more baseball than all of us put together had never seen THAT ONE. Our favorite little hobbit Eckstein must have died and gone to heaven when he realized he finally found someone dumb enough to do it.
Doggie Stalker - January 28, 2009
Caribbean Series starts Wednesday, right?
And MLB Network will carry it, right?
chilango2 - January 28, 2009
I think it starts Monday.
It’s on the MLB Network but I’m not sure who the announcers will be for the games.
cowsarecool220 - January 28, 2009
Peavy and Roberts
Cubbie-Tim - January 28, 2009
When Olsen was w/ the Cubs,
it appeared SD would get one starter. I don’t see how things change much now. The only change is that SD could get a better starter in Marshall, with Heilman filling Marshall’s role…
Yes, Cedeno’s gone, but he has little value..
CubFaninCA - January 28, 2009
a drag
this has been a lousy offseason. kept waiting for something good to happen. in the end, just a bunch of disappointments. this team is not as good as it was last year. it’s going to be a dogfight.
buckmulligan - January 28, 2009
Adding a middle of the order hitter sure sucks.
Bildo1805 - January 28, 2009
i think the bradley move could turn out well
if we actually change up the middle of the order, meaning moving lee out the 3-spot (preferably up to 2) rather than sliding bradley in 4 and pushing rami back, then i think it could be good. and there are certainly questions surrounding bradley’s usefulness in his spot.
buckmulligan - January 28, 2009
A dogfight with who?
Who in the division has really gotten better?
Shanghai Badger - January 28, 2009
the cardinals will be better.
and they will be tough.
buckmulligan - January 28, 2009
How did they get better?
I’m not being a smartass . . . what is the improvement?
Shanghai Badger - January 28, 2009
first,
adam wainwright had a finger injury that plagued him for much of the year; i expect him to have a solid year. second, i expect carpenter to contribute something. third, their bullpen is bound to improve, if only by removing izzy. i also see greene as an improvement in the middle infield, and molina gets better every year. i don’t know if ludwick can repeat his 08.
buckmulligan - January 28, 2009
A Cards fan friend of mine
Thinks that counting on Carpenter is a mistake if that is St. Louis’ strategy. Doesn’t mean he’s right, of course.
Removing Izzy removes a problem, but someone has got to be put in that spot to get outs.
Shanghai Badger - January 28, 2009
Aramis better stay healthy..............
…………..because with DeRo and Onedec now gone, the thought of Aaron Miles at 3B, even for a few games, is not pretty.
tville - January 28, 2009
Won't we just call Vitters up if Ramirez gets hurt?
santoswoodenlegs - January 28, 2009
No, that would start the clock ticking on his service time
I don’t actually buy that argument — ever. But some people do, so I figured I’d post it.
Shanghai Badger - January 28, 2009
Cubs may call Vitters up.............
………..but it doesn’t change my concern about the results.
tville - January 28, 2009
No way Vitters gets the call..
He has only played 4 games above low A ball and just turned 19 in August. He is at least 2 years away from the MLB.
cubfan2201 - January 28, 2009
Is that a joke?
Vitters hit .214 in single-A ball. To think he’s even remotely ready to Chicago is laughable. The soonest he’ll be here is in 2012.
NittanyCub - January 28, 2009
Which is...oddly enough...when Sue and I will be up for re-election!
santoswoodenlegs - January 28, 2009
:D
sue369 - January 28, 2009
After reading all of the posts that are complaining aboout Hendry's moves
this off season, I am feeling better every day about 2009. Anything that is so universally disliked has to turn out better than everyone thinks. My guess is that the 2009 Cub product will do just fine—of course our litmus test will be play-offs AND success in the post season.
So we have a long, long time (hopefully) to wait to measure Hendry’s success in 2009. I look forward to seeing improvement in Cubs v2009. So far, most BCB’ers are betting against improvement.
I wouldn’t bet against Hendry, yet.
LAcarl519 - January 28, 2009
Heilman's an improvement over Pie/Cedeno/Olsen
He had 3 good seasons prior to last year and was apparently hurt… People need to quit jumpig off ledge after every trade.. The only move I see as a head shaker is the DeRosa deal. Still seems to me that a bigger deal’s to come.
CubFaninCA - January 28, 2009
Fart on Me and call me smelly
but i kind of like his deal. I kind of like Old Style and think he will contbiute well.
fischisgod - January 28, 2009
done.
santoswoodenlegs - January 28, 2009
lol
fischisgod - January 28, 2009
Well, it's not a .gif, but I'm counting it.
daver - January 28, 2009
always perfectly played
Emelie - January 28, 2009
From Eric Krabell of ESPN
“Of course, the heart wants what the heart wants, and it’s presumptive to assume Heilman will fail as a starter just because of previous numbers. But this will be his big opportunity. I remember thinking Braden Looper, Todd Wellemeyer, Derek Lowe and Justin Duchscherer were big risks when they moved to the rotation, but all worked out better than expected. I would draft Heilman as a starting pitcher and figure he’ll make 25 starts if/when he wins the job, and he’ll keep his ERA in the respectable 4.00 range with a decent strikeout rate. There is upside here if you wait long enough in a draft to seek it out. I like this move for the Cubs.”
fischisgod - January 28, 2009
That's obviously a fantasy player's viewpoint, since he says "draft Heilman as a starting pitcher".
I wouldn’t say he’s a lock for the rotation. He’s probably better off in the bullpen.
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
or on another baseball team.
santoswoodenlegs - January 28, 2009
God, I hope so.....
His career numbers as a starter…
25 starts 5-13 5.93ERA
That’s downright Marquis-like.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
Actually, Marquis is much better than that.
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
Cost
Don’t you think it made sense to free up some of that salary they were paying Marquis? Payroll evidently is an issue for this team. Marshall, Heilman, Gaudin or Samardzija seem like much cheaper options and they aren’t significantly worse pitchers. If anything they are of more value because of their versatility.
Acapulco Taco Pie - January 28, 2009
Your point is taken.
I was simply pointing out that Marquis is a better starting pitcher than Heilman, or at least their stats would suggest so.
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
The "ONEDEC" thing was
cute. Until he quickly reverted back. I have a hard time thinking of any player I have seen in blue pins that was a dumber baseball player then Ronny Cedeno. I was SO excited when he got his first starts with old Dusty. He got the 2007 gig – then – pfft! Done.
The fact that we got a useful player back for him is a plus.
Who knows what Greg Olson will turn into.
And, the whole Peavy thing will not be settled until new ownership is in-place. Ronny was out of options. Rather get something useful than DFA-in his ass at the end of ST.
The E-Man - January 28, 2009
I don't disagree that Cedeno needed to be traded, being out of options.
I just think that the Cubs didn’t get enough in return.
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
Cedeno's value
Ronny’s value was whatever the market returned. The Cubs couldn’t hold on to him and he’s not an every day player. What were you expecting? Hendry had to move him or release him and get nothing. Heilman has value even if he had a tough year last season. Hendry unloaded 2 players in Pie and Cedeno that this team could not use and got back a ML pitcher and a pitching prospect. There is value in pitching depth and Heilman brings more of it.
Acapulco Taco Pie - January 28, 2009
Value
When the Cubs traded Jose Ceda there were some who said, “Well that was all his market value was.” Then we read reports from ESPN which said teams were surprised he was traded for so little and wished they’d known he was available.
Heilman is valuable but Cedeno and Pie were worth more than Heilman if traded in the right way.
DGU - January 28, 2009
value is relative
They didn’t have a great deal of value to the Cubs because they were out of options. Heilman is a pitcher that can come out of the bullpen or start, that’s valuable. He had a bad year last year but before that he was a decent pitcher. The Cubs also still have the other pitcher that came from Baltimore with Olson. I think people have a warped perception of Cedeno and Pie’s value considering the Cubs did not want them on their team.
Acapulco Taco Pie - January 28, 2009
How relative?
You argued that the value in the trade was the market value. I argued that Jim Hendry didn’t seem to be shopping to get the best value for each player and therefore what they got back was not market value.
One could argue, on the other side that some Pie and Cedeno anti-fans have a warped perception since the O’s and M’s did want these guys on their team.
I’d also point out that baseball analysts generally praised the deal from the O’s perspective; I expect the same will occur in this deal from the M’s perspective.
DGU - January 28, 2009
market dictates value
I don’t believe I said anything contradictory. The market for Cedeno or Pie is whatever you end up getting for them, period. You say they could have gotten more, but they never. How do you have any concept of what more they could have gotten? Maybe some of the great baseball analysts you site can tell you who better was available for the Cubs? You fail to acknowledge that these players value was impacted and probably lowered due to the fact they are out of options. Getting Heilman was better than releasing them for nothing isn’t it? Your theory of baseball analysts praising this O’s deal, how about some examples? The fact is Pie and Cedeno were not going to be part of this team and Heilman gives them some added pitching depth.
There were also a lot of so-called experts that said getting Harden and Gaudin for Murton, Patterson, and Gallagher wasn’t a good deal for the Cubs. I disagreed with them as well.
Acapulco Taco Pie - January 28, 2009
The market only dictates the value
if the seller is playing the market.
When I was young I traded baseball cards and had a friend who happened to have duplicate Ryne Sandberg rookie cards, so he gave it to me for a card I had duplicates for. The market value of a Ryne Sandberg rookie card was not equal to a slightly bent Jody Davis card.
DGU - January 28, 2009
really?
Jody Davis got bent?
Acapulco Taco Pie - January 28, 2009
No, that's what I yelled at him when he wouldn't sign my baseball card.
“Hey, Davis, get bent!”
daver - January 29, 2009
You don't recall Jerry Hairston, Jr.?
Shanghai Badger - January 28, 2009
Pssst...
(shhhh! Don’t say this name outloud: Neifi Perez.)
chilango2 - January 28, 2009
Only my opinion
Shark is in AAA by Opening Day. He needs to find another pitch to be a starter, and he needs to make his second pitch better than it was last year. Harden is our 5th starter, he has to be based on Hendry’s numbers of 25-26 starts. Lou can skip him as the fifth starter, but not the 3rd or 4th. Lou and Hendry dont trust Hart, for obvious reasons, they dont trust Guzman on that new arm of his, and Heilman is a horse. He was reported by BP as the 2nd most overused pitcher in baseball last year (behind Marmol), so maybe a less frequent role as 7th inning man is a better fit for him. He is not going to be the starter. That would put him in the 4th spot, and there is no way that is happening. Hendry isnt done yet. Relax and be patient. Peavy is going to be almost impossible to pull off based on the ownership issue, but a Wolff or Sheets wouldnt necessarily be impossible based on the numbers Garland got, and the sheer lack of interest around baseball in any of the available pitching that is out there.
louslovechild - January 28, 2009
As it stands now, Shark and Hart have to start the year in the minors
Everyone else in the pen would have to go through waivers to get there.
Wreckard - January 28, 2009
Wuertz could be traded.
Teams have inquired about him in the past (notably, the Tigers).
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
Well anyone could be traded
By “as it stands now” I mean as the roster is currently sitting, barring a trade or release.
Wreckard - January 29, 2009
This is a good move
The price may have been a little higher than I’d have liked (not Olson – he wasn’t likely to help us this year anyway; Cedeno, on the other hand, is someone who we’ll actually have to replace on the depth chart).
I was initially hesitant just because I worry that this precludes a Peavy deal, but given the ownership situation I don’t think you can go into spring training planning on that happening – there’s still too many variables.
Assuming no Peavy, getting Heilman keeps Marshall in the pen and still improves the rotation from last season.
I guess the bottom line is: Hendry’s improved the team so much this off-season that I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt on this one.
Wreckard - January 28, 2009
huh?
Assuming no Peavy, getting Heilman keeps Marshall in the pen and still improves the rotation from last season.
how in the world do you figure this?
Marquis is greater than Heilmann
and Dempster is unlikely to repeat his 2008
DartmouthCubsFan - January 28, 2009
Mostly because we’ll have Harden for an entire year instead of a half year.
Heilman is likely to be better than Marquis, who is terrible. It’s hard to look at a reliever and project their stats out as a starter, but Heilman was excellent from 2005-2007 in the pen. If Rothschild can get him depending on his fastball again (instead of the slider he was using much more last year) he has way, way more upside than Marquis.
And if he fails, and you can bet he’ll be on a short leash, then Marshall steps into the rotation, who’s a no-brainer improvement over Marquis. It’s a win-win.
Wreckard - January 28, 2009
As pointed out above...
… Heilman, in 25 career starts, is 5-13 with a 5.93 ERA.
Marquis was better than that.
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
All of those starts were in his first 2 seasons
He hasn’t been given a chance since 2005. From 2005-2007 he was an extremely effective reliever, so worst case you move him back to the pen where he’s had success.
Like I said, expect him to be on a short leash. If he doesn’t succeed in Spring Training as a starter you’ll see Marshall out there, who’s a significantly better than Marquis.
Wreckard - January 28, 2009
Maybe there's a reason he wasn't given a chance...
…. and the Mets starting staff wasn’t exactly the 71 Orioles.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
Their bullpen sucked worse.
Shanghai Badger - January 28, 2009
because of him, yeah, you're right.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
Sure.
Everyone else would have actually been lights-out had Heilman not been on the roster.
Shanghai Badger - January 28, 2009
He compounded the already horrible bullpen...
….he was by far the worst out of the pen among the 7-8 with the most innings. So, yeah, take out his 76 innnings of suckage and the numbers would look better for that shitty bullpen. Lights out? No one said that.
But you’re saying he should have been a starter? That the reason he was in the pen was that they needed more help in the pen? I’m sure there’s a point in there somewhere.
carmen_fanzone - January 29, 2009
No, I'm saying that the Mets bullpen sucked
You said the fact that he didn’t start with a lousy rotation was indicative of his abilities. All I said was that their bullpen was bad. You made the inference, not me.
But, since you pressed it, he wasn’t going to replace Santana, Perez or Maine. Heilman may or may not perform well in 2009 — but the 2008 Met starting rotation has nothing to do with it.
Shanghai Badger - January 29, 2009
He could have been a 5th starter on that staff easy...
….considering Pedro and those that were put in there had an ERA of close to 7.00.
I’m saying that given the horrible performance of their 5th starters, why not start him? Like I said previously (and was my original point), there must have been a reason, possibly that he was just as bad.
carmen_fanzone - January 29, 2009
Sure, I see your point
And I don’t have a good answer. I do think that Minaya isn’t all that good of a GM — and who knows where Randolph’s head was on this? Maybe Manuel was told not to start him . . . .
I’d like to hear Lou the Met fan’s take on this. IIRC, Marty Noble (beat writer for MLB.com — he actually delves into issues more than another beat writer that we’re familiar with) felt that Heilman was too valuable in the ’pen based on past performance to move him to the rotation.
Shanghai Badger - January 29, 2009
Too valuable....
Yeah, I see your point. And maybe the timing of when they might have considered switching him to the rotation was around when Pedro came back.
I’d like to hear a Mets’ fan take, too. I’ve read somewhere where he bitched a lot last year about NOT being in the rotation?
carmen_fanzone - January 29, 2009
I think he did let his feelings be known
I’m not sure how he went about it. Dempster also made his preferences known in 2007, but he was professional about it. I’m not sure if Heilman was or not — but he did need to get out of New York. Whether or not that equates to him returning to form remains to be seen . . . .
Shanghai Badger - January 29, 2009
Whoops
Mixed thoughts there
He let his feelings be known about starting — not about getting out of NYC.
I think he did need to get out to have a chance to perform better.
Shanghai Badger - January 29, 2009
I would agree...
… and at this point, I’d rather see Marshall than Heilman.
Al Yellon - January 28, 2009
Not sure if this merits a FanShot
but I found an interesting take on Heilman’s 2008 campaign. Looks like he may have been handicapped by early overuse (in concert with his knee problem).
Goodie1969 - January 28, 2009
One thing I'll miss
is using the “ñ” to write Cedeño’s name. Ññññ…
chilango2 - January 28, 2009
Although Incorrect...
… you can put it on Vizcaino, unless he’s flipped.
initram - January 28, 2009
Or how about
“Foñteñot”?
chilango2 - January 28, 2009
Dèrék Lêë?
initram - January 28, 2009
Kosuke Füküdome
hip2bsquare - January 28, 2009
How Metal
Maybe he’ll be as fierce as William Murderface or Nathan Explosion (or at least Pickles…)
chilango2 - January 28, 2009
Lou Piñiella
santoswoodenlegs - January 28, 2009
That's what they call him in Mexico
For serious: “Pee-gnee-eh-yah.”
chilango2 - January 28, 2009
That is how his name "should be" pronounced.....it has been Americanized
…his grandparents were from Spain.
JB 23 - January 28, 2009
On the whole
Pie and Cedeno for Heilman and Williamson is probably fair value. That said, I dislike this trade because I think Cedeno/Olson was too much for a guy in Heilman, particularly since it looks like Aaron was added for the pen (based on Levine saying we would pursue other starting options), and I don’t see what huge value Heilman brings to the pen. If we hadn’t dealt for Kevin Gregg, fine. But we did. I value a strong bullpen, so I’m not totally against these moves, but I liked the versatility that Olson potentially provided as a 2nd lefty. I mean, I don’t really trust Cotts to handle the bulk of the lefty work, with Marshall as a swing guy. Add in that, we are further eating away at our available space with these small moves. I mean, we’re essentially looking for Heilman/Gregg to replace what we had with Wood.
And I don’t get the point of Bako at 750.
toonsterwu - January 28, 2009
Perhaps
Heilman was added because Guzman is beign traded. Who knows?
Luis - January 28, 2009
Shapes up like this...
Outfield – Soriano, Kosuke, Bradley, Johnson, Gathright
Infield – Ramirez, Theriot, Fontenot, Lee, Miles….and I envision Aurilia
Catcher – Soto…and I envision Bako
Rotation – Zambrano, Harden, Dempster, Lilly, Heilman
Pen (7) – Marmol, Gregg, Gaudin, Vizcaino, Cotts, Marshall, Guzman
Triple A bound – Hoffpauir, Samardzija, Hart, Atkins, Stevens, Ascanio,
BLou - January 28, 2009
We got a pretty decent depth at pitching
our offense depth is baby pool comparable..
Chanman25 - January 28, 2009
brian custer
i really like the heilman trade. aaron came team up with smardzija in the 4 & 5 spots. nothing but upside. aaron is out to prove he can be a starter in the big leagues. the guy is tough as nails, has a strong arm (injurywise) has been throught the ny media meat grinder. he to earn a spot in the starting rotation. will be extremely motivated. I LOVE THIS TRADE!!!!
brian custer - January 28, 2009
carmen_fanzone
How the hell can you make a post almost unreadable and still spell Smardzija correctly? LOL.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
oh wait, you didn't. haha.
carmen_fanzone - January 28, 2009
a little over-excited , i guess SAMARDZIJA. SAMARDZIJA SAMARDZIJA
brian custer - January 28, 2009
ND grad?
eh?
DartmouthCubsFan - January 29, 2009
if he was, he would have told you by now.
Bill Potter - January 29, 2009
Hey-O!
Shanghai Badger - January 29, 2009
dat cubfan daver
Nothing to say here really, just wanted to join in on the trend of putting one’s user name in the subject line.
daver - January 29, 2009
Denny Crane
Shanghai Badger - January 29, 2009
I believe that realistically
we need to compare the above staffs in the Division, first. And, doing this, our inventory – pitcher by pitcher – is the strongest in the division, unless the Red’s staff pitch out of their skulls in 2009. the team is constructed with many “IFs” however, but what team isn’t?
IF they have another year of relative health, and IF they make the playoffs, I think they may be finally set-up offensively to go deeper, imo.
The E-Man - January 28, 2009
Heilman...They really
…on this one.
GOOD LUCK.
LOUtheMETandNATSfan - January 28, 2009
Bumped heads?
daver - January 29, 2009
duck, duck, duck
goose?
Cubbie-Tim - January 29, 2009
put their heads together?
Lows05 - January 29, 2009
Ding!
You win!
LOUtheMETandNATSfan - January 29, 2009
Sharing a milkshake?
santoswoodenlegs - January 29, 2009
No
But I like the way you think.
LOUtheMETandNATSfan - January 29, 2009
diving for twinkies, no doubt
Emelie - January 29, 2009
I'm going to preach patience
Yeah this deal itself sounds lik a yawner at best, but Jim Hendry rarely disappoints me. I encourage everyone to wait and see.
northernsails - January 28, 2009
Greetings from Busch Stadium
…. c’mon, that’s funny.
adiueordie - January 28, 2009
So I guess that ass-clown
with the “MORANS” sign didn’t do this since it’s actually spelled correctly.
Hey, when your team is at the top, others have to take shots at them. That’s OK. I’ll revisit this with my Cards fans friends at the end of August when they’re 18 games behind the 1st place Cubs.
blackhawk24 - January 29, 2009
I think
they brought notes
MOCubsfan - January 29, 2009
Remember, these words are monosyllabic
Much easier
Shanghai Badger - January 29, 2009
yeah, ballpark village is really looking nice.
buckmulligan - January 29, 2009
A little background...
Being that I’m from Logansport and followed his career from HS to New York, I even watched him pitch against the Indianapolis Indians a couple times when he was in the minors. I am excited for him. This gives him a chance to play for his favorite team…Something we all wished we could be doing. Now, enough of talking from my heart, this is from my head…Last season he wasn’t very good…he was actually pretty bad, but I stand by the idea that a guy with his type of pitches, especially his sinker, should be a starting pitcher. His numbers as a starter aren’t very good, but you have to remember a majority of those GS came when he was a rookie. I think he’ll be a good addition to either the rotation or bullpen. Though I do not know him personally on a first name basis (he is 6 years older than I am), he is a really good guy. He came back to my HS and talked to us and actually practiced with us a couple times my senior year. He still comes back to Logansport and talks to kids at the Berry Bowl (our HS gym) and signs autographs. He wasn’t really projected to be the stud pitcher he is was he was in HS. It wasn’t until his senior year in HS that he became pretty dominate. His numbers while @ ND were absolutely insane. I think he was something like 15-0 in 15 starts his senior year there. Pretty good stuff. I hope he gets a shot at the rotation because he has Maddux like movement on his fastball and a plus change-up. Either way, we’re getting a good player and a good guy to our team.
Lows05 - January 29, 2009
eh...
that first sentence sucks…terrible grammar and punctuation….oh well…it should read like this…
"Being that I’m from Logansport and followed his career from HS to New York (I even watched him pitch against the Indianapolis Indians a couple times when he was in the minors), I am excited for him.
Lows05 - January 29, 2009
If you've followed him closely, do you have any insight on the
repeated rumor/speculation of him being a malcontent?
N Oakley - January 29, 2009
malcontent
Aaron was hounded by the NY press regarding his desire to start. Aaron never equivocated: his first choice was to start. Aaron accepted his role in the Mets bullpen and soldiered on for 3+ years. This was after he threw a complete game 1 hitter gainst the marlins in April 2005. Aaron has a sort of mopey demeanor, but he is not a malcontent.
brian custer - January 29, 2009
The idea that he's a malcontent is nothing more than something
nearly made up, but more likely just loosely interpreted by a single poster here then repeated as if it was true. There’s a NYT article I posted elsewhere talking about him being classy and handling his desire to start well.
DGU - January 29, 2009
Never heard...
Like I said, he and I aren’t buddies, just from the same area and chatted briefly about 5 years ago. I think the malcontent label is probably because he was disappointed not being a starter in NY. I know for a fact though that he hasn’t lost touch about who he is and what it took to get him where he is today. However, he is not completely satisfied with where his role was/in. He wants to start, can’t blame the guy. Like I said before, he wasn’t projected early to be a stud, therefor he never had the prima donna attitude growing up or a feeling of entitlement. He always worked hard both on and off the field (really intelligent guy, comes from a good family too. Also, his sister played softball @ Saint Joseph’s College (Ind.), which is where I played baseball). For a good 25 year stretch, Logansport was central Indiana’s baseball factory. That’s all we were known for, so he does love the game, and definitely loves the Cubs. I think he’ll be more motivated to be a starter, maybe he’ll even work out with Dempster and get in ridiculous shape. The only thing about Heilman, which is something he was NEVER good at…he can’t hit, at all. Like, worse than Al Leiter, so he won’t be the “offensive threat” Marquis was, but I really do believe he’s a better pitcher and has a better head on his shoulders.
Lows05 - January 29, 2009
sorry...I need to start proof-reading........
supposed to say, “where his role was/is.”
Lows05 - January 29, 2009
Rec'd
Thanks for your insight.
DGU - January 29, 2009
Thank you
and rec’d
N Oakley - January 29, 2009
This is a good move
I think it is quite exciting that the Cubs could potentially have two Fighting Irish alum anchoring the back end of the rotation this year. Notre Dame has quite a following in Cubby land. It will add fun & excitement to the games. We all remember the reception Samardzija rcvd last year. Heilman is a different type of pitcher, but his fastball can giddyup to around 95, his change is deadly and his slider is coming back into form. Aaron is battle tested and will be highly motivated to show Cub fans he is worthy of a spot in the rotation.
brian custer - January 29, 2009
Hey, sounds good to me.
I’m willing to give him a chance. I even have a sneaking suspicion that he may grab that fifth starter’s spot. From what I’ve read, he really wants to get back to starting.
daver - January 29, 2009
As long as the Cubs never play
USC or Boston College, even in spring training, they should be fine.
Bill Potter - January 29, 2009
fastball...
is generally low 90s, but the movement is just silly. I think that is why he struggled out of the pen. A pen guy needs to come in pumping strikes. You can’t affored to fall behind hitters…now obviously, this doesn’t only apply to pen guys, pitchers in general need to throw strikes, but the added pressure is there, especially when your FB moves so much. Make him a starter and we just may have a Derek Lowe type of pitcher with a cheaper price tag.
Lows05 - January 29, 2009
That would be outstanding
It took Lowe a while to settle down and find his sinker as a starter, but once he did, I would say it worked out pretty well.
If Heilman can find his arm slot and continue to generate some movement on the fastball, I think he’ll make a solid addition to the pitching staff and could replicate, if not perform better than Marquis.
Bill Potter - January 29, 2009
huh?
he had all his success out of the pen… he’s never had much success as a starter
and the reason is because he’s a 2 pitch pitcher
DartmouthCubsFan - January 29, 2009
look...
his numbers as a starter came from his first two seasons…He is a groundball type of pitcher, his slider is mediocre at best, but his 2 pitches are good. Plus fastball and plus change-up. I’m certainly not saying he’s awesome, but he has just as good if not better stuff than Marquis without the randomly horrible outings. Believe it or not, Marquis has great stuff, he’s just a moron who’s inconsistent.
Lows05 - January 29, 2009
he wasn't a good starter in the minors either
he has only had “significant success” out of the pen, so i don’t get why you’re suggesting he’d be a better starter than he was reliever
DartmouthCubsFan - January 29, 2009
arm angle
early in his career, heilman was told to change his arm arm angle from 3/4 to over the top by the mets. once he switched back, he fared much better. he has never started since the 3/4 arm angle was re-installed…
brian custer - January 29, 2009
From my friend the Mets fan
"Good luck with Heilman! Turning Cedeno and Pie into a 30 year old swingman, is, let’s say, questionable? "
Doggie Stalker - January 29, 2009
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Bleed Cubbie Blue to post a comment.