Over the four and a half years that BCB has been in existence, many discussions and debates have taken place here over the value of statistical analysis in baseball.
Despite what you may think, I am not anti-statistics, nor anti-intellectual. I am fully aware of the value of modern advanced metrics, what they are, and how they can be used. However, I believe they are not an end in and of themselves; they need to be used in conjunction with scouting techniques and other forms of analysis of people.
With that said, I realize that many people here do enjoy discussion of advanced metrics and how they apply to baseball situations and in particular, the Cubs. Since I admit that statistical analysis is neither something I am that comfortable in doing myself, nor do I have the time to do detailed studies, I am pleased to announce that as of today, I am adding BCB reader shawndgoldman (whose name, as you likely could guess from his user name, is Shawn Goldman) to the staff to do stat-oriented pieces.
I've given Shawn free rein to write about any topic he chooses. He'll post on an occasional basis during the offseason and likely more often as the 2010 season comes closer and begins next April. Shawn does excellent analysis and, as you saw in his post comparing Milton Bradley to a salesman from a month or so ago, he also writes and explains his methodology well.
Please join me in welcoming Shawn to the BCB front-page staff and I know we'll all learn much from his posts.
Here's something we can also chew on while the long off-season begins. This isn't statistical analysis per se, but I wanted to post some of the Cubs' W-L splits from 2009, because they seem odd to me in several ways, and wondered if any of you have any ideas as to why certain things happened the way they did -- not just for the team, but for some individual players in particular.
The Cubs were 47-32 against the NL Central in 2009. That's the best record for any team in the National League within its own division, slightly better than the Reds and Cardinals, who were 46-34. Why, then, could the Cubs post only a 30-37 mark outside the division? Of the other ten teams, three of them were 90+ loss clubs (Mets, Nationals, Diamondbacks). But the Cubs were only 9-10 against those bad teams, while going 10-4 against the 99-loss Pirates.
The Cubs were also 44-33 in day games, but 39-45 in night games. The 84 night games played (would have been 85 if not for Thursday's rainout) is about 20 fewer than most teams; I assume that sometime soon, new ownership will petition the city to amend the current night game ordinance to allow perhaps 10 more home night games, with permission to schedule maybe 3 or 4 a year on Friday nights after road trips. The Cubs were the only team in baseball with a winning record in 2009 to have a losing record in night games. Why is this? Is it simply a one-year anomaly? (The 2007 Cubs, whose 85-77 record was similar to this year's, were 42-39 in night games and last year's team was 49-35.)
We are all aware of the bizarre day/night splits of Rich Harden (6-4, 2.81 in 14 daylight starts, 3-5, 5.93 in 12 night game outings), as well as his home/road troubles (3-7, 5.99 in 15 home starts, 6-2, 2.00 in 11 road starts). Why did this happen? Ted Lilly had just the reverse problem: 8-2, 1.87 in 13 starts at Wrigley, 4-7, 4.41 in 14 starts on the road. Are these one-year freaks? Or something to look out for next season?
Anyway, those seemed interesting to me; pick 'em apart, and soon Shawn will make his first front-page BCB post. Again, welcome, Shawn!
0 recs | 86 comments
First!
lol.
Shawn Domagal-Goldman - October 5, 2009
LOL
Glad you’re around, Shawn, and again, welcome. Looking forward to your contributions.
Al Yellon - October 5, 2009
I'll post something later on...
that I hope helps all of you realize where I’m coming from, and why I lean on statistics so much when evaluating players and teams. I think we’re going to have some useful discussions in the future, and I look forward to them.
Shawn Domagal-Goldman - October 5, 2009
Hello to you
I’m very interested in what stats you are going to bring up. I’m not much of a stat person myself, I i’ll learn what I can from you.
Cubbiegoon - October 5, 2009
I'd say there is a 97% chance you will post something later...
good luck.
LAcarl519 - October 5, 2009
how can you make a prediction like that when we currently have a sample size of 0!
El Borto - October 5, 2009
That's a very good point.
I could flake out and not post anything. :-)
Shawn Domagal-Goldman - October 5, 2009
given the limited sample size, I used a sample sized based on Al's ability to pick talent
and came up with a 3% failure rate for Al’s ability to pick staff. Therefore, I used that failure correlation to determine Shawn’s probability of success.
LAcarl519 - October 5, 2009
I say it's exactly 50-50 that Shawn posts something.
Either he will or he won’t. That’s 50-50 in my book ;)
Zeke - October 5, 2009
Congrats Shawn
This is like the Medal of Honor for BCB
DTJchris - October 5, 2009
Al extends the olive branch.
This is great news – looking forward to reading your stuff, Shawn, and learning a thing or three.
daver - October 5, 2009
rec'd
this is cool and something that all can benefit from.
Congrats Shawn.
socalbob - October 5, 2009
Second the rec
Shanghai Badger - October 5, 2009
The Cubs were also 44-33 in day games, but 39-45 in night games.
Without looking at it, my guess is that there’s a home/road seleciton bias at work here. The Cubs play most of their day games at home, and therefore you’d expect their record in day games to be better.
Shawn Domagal-Goldman - October 5, 2009
I'd have to look deeper into the record...
… to see how it split home/road. Were they really that much better in home day games than road day games?
As I noted, they didn’t seem to have an extreme split like this the last two years. In fact, the crappy 2006 team was better in night games (35-44) than in day games (31-52).
Al Yellon - October 5, 2009
Well, this year at least
the Cubs home record was 46-34 and their night record was 37-44. That’s pretty close to the day/night splits from this year. I think the home/road split is a better explanation for the difference than day/night split is.
Shawn Domagal-Goldman - October 5, 2009
Also, the 2009 Cubs...
… had one of the worst records in the NL in one-run games — 16-22. Only the Pirates were worse. That, obviously, has a lot to do with Kevin Gregg.
Al Yellon - October 5, 2009
IIRC
1-run records should roughly follow a team/s RS/RA. The deviations speak towards luck and bullpen performance and management of the bullpen. I wouldn’t put much on Lou, because frankly the whole bullpen was putrid for most of the season. So you’re right, it’s mostly on the pen and a large part of that is on Gregg. There’s also a bit of bad luck at play there.
Shawn Domagal-Goldman - October 5, 2009
Does anyone know the Cubs record vs. Rhp and Lhp?
Cubbiegoon - October 5, 2009
67-62 vs. RH starters, 16-16 vs LH starters.
Al Yellon - October 5, 2009
i guess we need to get more left handed!
jesus christos - October 5, 2009
Based on those records, we apparently need to get more RIGHT handed.
Al Yellon - October 5, 2009
Milton Bradley
(Sarcasm) Gameboard hits better from the right side. He is exactly what the Cubs need in 2010.
memphiscub - October 5, 2009
but if we were left handed
wed be 62-5 against lefties!
jesus christos - October 5, 2009
Stat I want you to check for me
Ok so Fuld was like the first guy since 1920 to have 70 plus ABs without an RBI but he also had 17 walks to 10Ks
Can you find me someone comparable to that ratio with around 100 ABs who is not a power hitter ? Just wondering.
Doggie Stalker - October 5, 2009
There are some out there...
I’m not going to limit things to 100 AB’s.
You’re basically asking about players with a BB/K ratio of 1.7. Here’s your list:
http://www.fangraphs.com/careerleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=1&min=100
You can browse that list and find a few guys that had a BB/K ratio of 1.7 and not much power.
(If it doesn’t directly go there, you want to click on page 10 of that sorted list).
Shawn Domagal-Goldman - October 5, 2009
I am really bad at that stuff
I browsed through the NL this year and closet with about 200 AB was Carlos Ruiz but not as good as Fuld
FYI even though SMALL sample size Fuld did end up leading the Cubs in OBP. I would honestly say he hit ( and walked)
better than even I expected. If one actually thought he could hit .300 and walk that much over a full season I don’t think
it would be a problem that he has very little power.
Doggie Stalker - October 5, 2009
Here are the names of similar players
These are all the players who had a BB% of 17% or greater, and an ISO <= .113 (Fuld’s marks from this year). Not a one of them is close to a modern player, far as I can tell.
Herman Pitz, Eddie Shokes, Mickey Harris, Willie McGill, Gus Niarhos, Bob Prichard, Rasty Wright, Ed Mensor, Marty Hopkins, Glenn Gulliver, John Potts, John McGraw, Eddie Stanky, Jack Crooks, Roy Ellam, Bud Connolly, Ed Hogan, Bob Farley, Sammy Holbrook, Eddie Lake, Max Bishop, Tom Burgess, Dick Tettelbach, Ferris Fain, Mike Fiore, Josh Whitesell
cubzfan - October 5, 2009
Mike Fiore played from 1968-1972.
Glenn Gulliver from 1982-1983, and Josh Whitesell last year and this year.
That’s about as “modern” as anyone on that list gets.
Al Yellon - October 5, 2009
He plays the game the way it used to be played
Poorly.
Wreckard - October 5, 2009
Per the list, Stanky.
N Oakley - October 5, 2009
Hi five!
Took me a second, but I got there.
PacificCub - October 6, 2009
Josh Whitesell???
You have got to be kidding. He is about as far from Sam Fuld as one could possibly be,
I was thinking more along the lines of Dustin Pedroia or Luis Castillo.
azjazzman - October 5, 2009
here's the thing
as a 26 year-old in AA (very old for the league) he didn’t hit .300 (.270 avg, .360 OBP with a .381 slg) and as a 27 year-old in AAA (old) he didn’t hit .300 (.284 avg, .358 OBP, and .415 slg). So why (because of a 100 at bat sample?) do we think he will hit .300 at the MLB level? And be a meaningful contributor?
He’s a 5th OF who plays the game correct and that’s all. We can do better than him.
socalbob - October 5, 2009
I don't think he is a .300 hitter
but it was fun to see him way exceed MY expectations. He is VERY patient at the plate though and that can be pretty
useful. We can do better than him for what ? I think he is good a 4th/5th OF as you are gonna get. I am tired of guys who have some power but can’t field and swing at stuff that bounces in front of the plate. I mean if the Cubs pick up a power hitting SS or 2B I suppose you could let him platoon or play CF for more games but I see him as excellent bench player.
FYI he was 26 in AA because an injury got him demoted in 07.
Doggie Stalker - October 5, 2009
he is not
an everyday player or even a platoon player. He will be a nice bench player. I thought you were clamoring for him to be given the job in CF when referenced “given a full season” in the post above. Sorry if I misunderstood you.
I am tired of guys who have some power but can’t field and swing at stuff that bounces in front of the plate.
Amen to that!
socalbob - October 5, 2009
Well I was kind of daydreaming
but realistically I think he is a terrific bench guy who should 1-2 starts a week to spell for Soriano, Dome etc. He should almost always be in for Soriano in the 8th & 9th inning if the Cubs have a short lead. I get the impression Fuld knows what his role is as well and hardly expects to be a starter.
Doggie Stalker - October 5, 2009
I would like that role
for him 2010. He is certainly useful enough in that regard. Heck, I think he could even spell someone for 15-30 days if needed.
socalbob - October 5, 2009
So what your saying is...
that Sam Fuld is equal to Babe Ruth?
gaclaudy - October 5, 2009
Fuld Between Dascenzo and Cotto
Fuld did play well in his brief stint with Chicago this season. I think he’s better than Doug Dascenzo was but not as good as Henry Cotto was. I don’t think Fuld can pitch like Dascenzo could. Dascenzo had that really slow curve ball.
memphiscub - October 5, 2009
Fuld has a gun for an arm
It would be fun to see him pitch in a blowout.
Doggie Stalker - October 5, 2009
Welcome Shawn.
sue369 - October 5, 2009
Thanks for the welcome, everyone!
But I gotta get some work done. I live on the West Coast, so I’ll often hang out here more late at night (as in after 5 PST, which is 7 CST) and on the weekends.
Shawn Domagal-Goldman - October 5, 2009
Nerd content of BCB just went up 20 points or so
Mike Martin - October 5, 2009
do you feel better now?
nice post
socalbob - October 5, 2009
I would have felt better if you rec'd my post
But the compliment will do.
Mike Martin - October 5, 2009
With absolutely no statistical evidence to support my theory:
With respect to inside or outside the division records, perhaps scouting and frequency of seeing and playing opponents in your own division accounts for some of the discrepancy. Also, what advance scouts cover what teams? Maybe they get better and more accurate information from some scouts as opposed to others they employ. Maybe that’s too simplistic, but I do subscribe to Acoms Razor: “The simplest solution tends to be the correct one.” (Thank you Big Bang Theory)
Zeke - October 5, 2009
You can drive yourself nuts
with this stuff. Why does Cincinatti fo 46-34 vs the Central and 32-50 against everybody else (10-22 vs the West)? Why does Colorado go 31-11 vs the Central and 33-39 in their own division? Why do the Mets go 23-17 vs the Central and 14-21 vs the West? Why does Houston go 31-47 vs the Central and 21-15 vs the West?
Truth is, these are mostly one season anomalies that if you looked at 3 year or 5 year totals would flatten out.
azjazzman - October 5, 2009
The problem with learning about important things from awful television shows
…is that spelling is not included.
In this case I think the simplest solution would “injuries” – a lot of out-of-division games were played in May and June (35 of them to be exact – more than half of them) when Aramis was out and Soriano started his injury-induced tailspin.
Wreckard - October 5, 2009
The Cubs only played 18
out of division NL games while Ramirez was out and they went 8-10 in those games.
azjazzman - October 5, 2009
Ah, right my bad
I was using the wrong timeframe for that.
Given that out-of-division games tend to be grouped on the schedule though, I still think it’s easy to try and make sense of something that may be secondary to the real issue.
Wreckard - October 5, 2009
Oddly enough...
… this year, the Cubs had many homestands and road trips that had games both inside and outside the division. The first road trip of the year was to Houston & Milwaukee. Then they had another trip to the same two cities a month later. Those were the ONLY two roadtrips of the year that were entirely within the NL Central.
Similarly, the Cubs had exactly two homestands all year (July 24-30, Cincinnati & Houston, and September 11-17, Cincinnati & Milwaukee), that had ONLY NL Central opponents.
It used to be arranged more logically; now you have bizarre road trips like the one at the beginning of August (Florida-Cincinnati-Colorado). About the only time the schedule makes sense is during the interleague period, where you play all interleague games for two weeks.
Al Yellon - October 5, 2009
It was a little more diffuse than usual, definitely
And kind of non-sensical in the grouping.
But there still was grouping going on – 22 of the games in the Cubs miserable August were out-of-division. That’s 1/3rd of the out-of-division games, and they lost 15 of them.
That said it could be that playing out of division games is what made the Cubs’ August miserable.
Wreckard - October 5, 2009
That makes some sense.
Obviously, they played — and couldn’t beat — a tough Phillies team. It was losing games to the Mets and Nationals that helped do the Cubs in.
Al Yellon - October 5, 2009
Oh
and the 19 games that Al referenced against 90+ loss teams where the Cubs went 9-10? Those all were played with Ramirez active. You could throw the Mets and Padres in there, too. The Cubs went 3-3 against the 92 loss Mets and 4-5 against the 87 loss Padres (with 3 of the 4 wins when Aramis was out).
By the way Al, I told you the Cubs would not sweep the D’Backs!
azjazzman - October 5, 2009
Yes, you were correct.
I still can’t figure it out.
Al Yellon - October 5, 2009
I learned Occam's Razor from the Simpsons
Much mo’ betta.
PacificCub - October 6, 2009
I saw the title of the post...
and I thought you were going to ignite an already beaten-to-death subject once again Al.
I would like to say that I really like the decision to add a stats-oriented front page poster to the BCB staff. I think it speaks volume for you Al, as I have thought you to be a bit stubborn in the past on the subject. It gives me even more respect for you that you’re willing to add somebody full-time in a subject area that you’re not completely familiar with (I’m not all that savvy on the subject myself). Kudos Al.
Kansas25 - October 5, 2009
Thanks.
You hit on the exact reason for doing this. Statistical analysis IS an important part of modern baseball analysis. Shawn is very good at it and also writes well in explaining his analysis. He’ll be a great addition to the site.
Al Yellon - October 5, 2009
Looking forward to it
And I think it will make it easier for people with a clear stats or non-stats orientation to pick and choose their threads. When Josh posts something, we know it’s the place to go to discuss the minors. Now we have a similiar forum for discussion of stats. Good idea.
cubzfan - October 5, 2009
I am glad you said that....
about choosing your threads…altho I like reading what the stats-guys have to say, I dont understand-I’m embarrassed to say-most of it. I’ll be looking forward to a mix of both types of threads. BCB is where I go for my continuing education about my beloved Cubs and the great sport of Baseball…..Thanks Everyone!
cooliogirl47 - October 5, 2009
Thanks to Al and welcome to Shawn!
Now if only Al could hire a professional scout to give us scouting reports, too.
DGU - October 5, 2009
I'd prefer if the Cubs got first dibs on any professional scouts looking for a gig
They obviously need them.
Clutch16 - October 5, 2009
Congratulations!
You now get the honor of getting press releases from everyone who wants you to write about their book, magazine, blog, article and sword-swallowing trick (OK, not the last one.)
Good to see the masthead expanding. Perhaps I can send you some minor league work.
Josh Timmers - October 5, 2009
I'd love to do some minor league stuff...
unfortunately, I don’t think it will be particularly useful. Sure, there are some stats I like more than others when looking at minor leaguers. But projecting the future MLB production of prospects is still an area that statistical methods (at least the publicly available ones) are not very good at.
That said, there are still some useful ones out there. I’ll definitely have things to say about various minor leaguers when it’s relevant.
Shawn Domagal-Goldman - October 5, 2009
Congrats, Shawn.
I am not a particularly stat-minded individual myself (I still haven’t finished reading BBTN), so I rely on the efforts of folks like you, toonsterwu, Wreckard, and others to provide the analytical background with the numbers most of us don’t think about.
The thing I hope to see more of this season (here on BCB) is more teaching, and not so much lecturing. People going at each other is usually neither productive nor interesting, and is the main reason I stayed away from the tangible v. intangible bloodbaths. I hope you and others can help those of us who don’t fully grasp the intricacies or importance of advanced metrics to come to the knowledge on our own. Help us see why the numbers are right, don’t just tell us they are. You do that, man, and you’re golden! (Pun not intended but left in for purposes of facepalm humor.)
Good luck…
Goodie1969 - October 5, 2009
I agree with this sentiment:
… and I hope to live up to that standard while here.
Shawn Domagal-Goldman - October 5, 2009
Both comments rec'd.
That’s exactly what I am hoping for as well, and why I chose Shawn for this spot.
Al Yellon - October 5, 2009
These two questions...
Are really important ones to ask, particularly the second one. Too often, people try to come up with an explanation for a phenomenon that has no cause but it just due to random variance. I think that is likely the case with a lot of the trends Al mentioned in the OP.
Shawn Domagal-Goldman - October 5, 2009
The conflict
between sabermetrics and those that don’t buy into it usually revolves about predictability. Obviously the team significantly fell below what was expected of them based upon numerous projections. It would be interesting to get into some discussions about the probability of those forward looking statistical models.
tharr - October 5, 2009
I'll take a look at that.
Uncertainty an error are a huge part of any quantitative field, and sabrmetrics is no exception.
Shawn Domagal-Goldman - October 5, 2009
I understand
the deviations of standard exist. However, personally I don’t feel they explain the actual extreme variances. They seem to underweight injuries and the other factors that exist every season with each team. For instance, team turnover can often make a difference. The failure of a closer can have a domino effect on an entire team. Injury to Ramirez makes a huge difference. Suppose Miles had been injured instead?
We have to admit that luck factors into a team’s fortune and sabermetrics cannot factor that into probability.
tharr - October 5, 2009
how many days until opening day?
Chanman25 - October 5, 2009
almost 182
Al has a count-down clock on the right sidebar.
socalbob - October 5, 2009
yeabbut
how long until pitchers and catchers report?
LT - October 5, 2009
As soon as I get the exact dates...
… for that, and for the first spring training game, I’ll post them.
Al Yellon - October 5, 2009
not soon enough :(
heine41 - October 5, 2009
I thought Rich Harden was better at night?
Are you sure those statistics aren’t supposed to be flipped Al?
In Piniella We Trustiella - October 5, 2009
GAH!
You’re right. They are flipped. Harden WAS better at night. And that’s even including his final two home night game starts — vs. the Astros and Brewers — when he was awful.
Al Yellon - October 5, 2009
Nice, awesome
I look forward to reading your stuff Shawn, and Kudos to Al for giving a somewhat opposing viewpoint a platform.
vivaelpujols - October 5, 2009
This is the kinda stuff I get into
Much better reading about Home/Road splits and who hits who better or worse, than the thousand or so fantasy owners ideas of making the Cubs better. Not to say that occasionally it’s fun to say what if, but I prefer to look at the reason the team we ahve is failing ( or not).
GHCF2314 - October 5, 2009
YAY! STATS RULE!
I know you’re one of the elder BCB members, Shawn; you’ve been here even longer than I.
Quick question: Not to sound snooty, but what credentials do you have thus far? Interest in stats? Math major? I’m excited to hear more about you and some of your methodology, thanks for being here.
Dan
dtpollitt - October 5, 2009
Congrats Shawn...
…looking forward to your work.
carmen_fanzone - October 5, 2009
Incidentally..
… the picture accompanying this post is Sam Fuld’s at-bat from yesterday, when he hit the HR. (Pitch 5).
Thought Jessica would like that.
Al Yellon - October 5, 2009
NL Central vs Rest of the League
The Cardinals, Cubs and Reds had good records in the NL Central because their pitching ranked 4th, 5th and 7th in the league based on ERA. They had WHIPs of 1.30, 1.32 and 1.37 respectively. The other three teams in the division ranked 13th, 14th and 15th in the league and had WHIPs of 1.45, 1,45 and 1.47.
So, the ERAs for the teams in the other NL divisions all ranked somewhere 1-12 including 1st through 3rd with only the Nationals worse than the Astros, Pirates and Brewers. Combine better overall pitching with a Cub team that couldn’t hit and it’s like a match in the gas tank. It would be better to look at the pitching stats minus games against the Cubs especially for the NL Central, but I couldn’t find an easy way to do that.
Ramirez hits better in day games at home. Overall, playing better at home and playing better during the day probably overlap. For now, they should still play more during the day.
AboutTheCubs - October 5, 2009
awesome
excited to have shawn on board. great move Al.
louisiana lumberman - October 6, 2009
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