Bleed Cubbie Blue

Wow, talk about destiny.

You know, Ryne Sandberg himself was named after a baseball player.

His parents were huge baseball fans. Ryne was named after relief pitcher Ryne Duren, whose real given name was “Rinold”.

Ryno had a brother named Del, who was named after 1950’s Phillies outfielder Del Ennis.

Aahh!! It just keeps going!!!

BWoodrum - November 19, 2009 reply

Perhaps

According to this link he is

Interesting question

Assuming that Ryne White is indeed named after Sandberg…

Has there ever been a player before playing for a manager after whom he is named?

Could happen

No, but..

… Dale Berra once played for his father (1985 Yankees).

Alou's

Moises did the same.

I was going to specify that there not be a familial relationship.

doofus cubs guy - November 19, 2009 reply

and neither of those two played for

a manager for whom they were named

i believe Cal Ripken played for Cal Ripken Sr. in Bal (and so did his bro)

Zakh - November 19, 2009 reply

Correct!

The thing that hurts your odds

is that most ML managers were crappy players — not the kind of guys that parents would name their kids after.

Your odds will improve if Derek Jeter decides he wants to manage someday.

Joe Torre would like to have a word with you.

As would...

Frank Robinson.

CubFan81 - November 19, 2009 reply

There was this Yankee I used to cheer for...

Foo Rinella, or somesuch…

drewishdrewid - November 19, 2009 reply

He was quite the

foo fighter

Emelie - November 19, 2009 reply

I was thinking of

Bobby Cox, Manny Acta, Jerry Manuel, Freddi Gonzalez, Jim Leyland, Don Wakamatsu, Bruce Bochy, Ron Washington, Terry Francona, Brad Mills, A.J. Hinch, Bob Geren, Jim Tracy, Joe Maddon, Cito Gaston, Dave Tremblay, Jim Riggleman, Charlie Manuel, Trey Hillman, Ron Gardenhire, Tony LaRussa, John Russell, and Ken Macha.

They have Lou, Mike Scioscia, Joe Torre, Bud Black, Joe Girardi, Ozzie Guillen, and Dusty Baker seriously outnumbered.

DeRoMyHero - November 20, 2009 reply

Yabbut those are only CURRENT managers.

Great picture choice.

So long, Fully K – or as I came to call him, “The Nervous Accountant.”

not a bad haul i guess

For what we got out of him?

I’d say we got a pretty good deal. The young lefty has pretty good K rates.

zam - November 19, 2009 reply

i was expecting a bag of balls

TW...S...S?

Yes? No? Stretching?

AndrewJStone - November 19, 2009 reply

No that was a good one

Musicdude10 - November 19, 2009 reply

please don't stretch

the bag of balls

scratching, however

is encouraged.

ScottT - November 19, 2009 reply

Brought a smile to my face, thanks :)

The brain, the goat….

Julio Zuleta's Voodoo - November 19, 2009 reply

We got no salary obligation in 2010

Everything after that was a bonus!

1 down, 2 to go.

ClarkFan - November 19, 2009 reply

As a native of Logansport, I'm sad to see Heilman go.

As a Cubs fan, I’m kinda happy.

How much $ does this free up?

santoswoodenlegs - November 19, 2009 reply

Heilman made $1.6 million in 2009.

So probably about that much, or a little more.

So perhaps this takes a little of the edge off the Grabow deal?

I'd think so, because...

… Heilman is likely to be replaced by Berg or Caridad (or someone else from the system) who’s making minimum wage.

we could've just done let grabow walk

kept heilman and done the same thing for 2.5 million less

What?

Heilman isn’t a lefty, and he’s not as good as Grabow.

Exactly.

I think DartmouthCubsFan has it backwards — we are saving the $1.6 million on Heilman, thus the net cost of having Grabow and (insert minimum wage guy’s name here) is about $2.5 million, for two relievers. Not too bad, and Maine looks like he might have a shot at making the major league team in a year or so.

i dont have it backwards

we could have saved 2.5 million by keeping heilman at 1.6 million and not signing grabow at 3.75 and inserting a minimum wage guy

sorry 2.15

not 2.5… a little quick on the trigger today

OK, but the team would have been worse off that way.

HOW?

grabow is not better than heilman…

i’m confused why people think Grabow is good and Heilman = bad

they’re the same pitcher, just one is LH and doesn’t dominate lefties to any degree that it really matters

BECAUSE THEY DO NOT DO THE SAME THING

You can put up whatever stats you want but Grabow is used as a LOOGY and Heilman is NOT. It is like having a catcher and 1B who have similar stats, well a catcher hitting 260 with not a lot of power is OK but not a 1B. If you let go of Grabow and keep Heilman YOU STILL NEED A LOOGY.

he was signed as a setup man.....

which would indicate…he’s not a LOOGY

in addition he’s not particularly spectacular against LH hitters… which again would suggest he’s not a LOOGY

career OPS vs. LH batters .707
Heilman career OPS vs. LH batters .751

there’s very little difference

I'm not sure how loosely LOOGY is defined ...

but I think Grabow will be used as the setup man for Marmol when the matches for an inning favor bringing in a lefty. I don’t think he’ll be used that often to get one guy out.

sorry "matchups"

DartmouthCubsFan - November 20, 2009 reply

yeah loogy

stands for lefty one out guy so based on that name i would agree he’s not a loogy and he surely wasn’t paid as a loogy. he was paid as a premier setup man

something i’ve been trying to get across to jessica

44 points of OPS is a pretty good difference

Archie - November 20, 2009 reply

FWIW

LOOGY always makes me think of the stuff that comes up when we have a cold…

Emelie - November 19, 2009 reply

I think this is why baseball fans love the term so much.

Y’know, all the spitting and whatnot…

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heilmaa01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grabojo02.shtml

he's better than grabow

what are you talking about?

heilman – 7.9 k/9, 3.8 bb/9, 0.9 hr/9
grabow – 7.9 k/9, 4.1 bb/9, 1.0 hr/9

heilman’s better than Grabow

and against lefties Grabow

has a slight advantage

career .707 OPS against lefties
heilman is a career .751 OPS against lefties

well ...

you’re citing career numbers. Last season, Grabow gave up half as many home runs per nine innings, fewer hits AND had a 1.24 WHIP compared with Heilman’s 1.41 WHIP.

I’m not saying Grabow should be getting $7.5 million. But he is a better pitcher than Aaron Heilman. He certainly was last year.

And — he’s left handed!

he had a 1.24 WHIP

because of a .274 BABIP against, his BB/9 was the same as its always been and his strikeouts actually dropped

he wasn’t better, he was LUCKIER

big big difference

what about the home runs -- and the hits?

the hits...

have to do with the BABIP….

the HR’s are luck induced as well as his HR/FB went from a career rate consistently around 12% to 7.8% last year with the Pirates and 3.7% with the Cubs

all luck induced

Bob Howry must have been unluckiest guy in the history of baseball.

howry's

HR/FB as a Cub was consistently around 12-13% which is league average

he gave up more HR’s because he gave up more fly-balls

Howry was quite good in 2006-07

I think DS (and many of us) remember ugly Howry of 2008.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/237/

i'm quoting 2008 numbers

12.3% HR/FB for Howry

oh ...

Howry was league-average in HRs given up that season?? That’s amazing.

Nah, he was league-average in HR/FB

That is, the percentage of fly balls he gave up that went for homers was average. Because he gave up far more fly balls than average, he gave up far more homers than average.

Interestingly, Howry has always been a fly-ball pitcher, but most years he’s given up about an average number of home runs (that is, his HR/FB was very good); perhaps batters weren’t able to catch up to his fastball and hit more lazy flies (I seem to notice this a lot in hard-throwing relievers). In 2007 he threw over 90% fastballs, and in 2008 he threw just 75% fastballs (threw a lot more sliders) and lost 2MPH of velocity. The drop in velocity probably made his fastball a bit more hittable. That combined with a little bad luck (relievers are quite prone to swings of bad luck) and, voila, lots of HRs.

aldimond - November 19, 2009 reply

Ballhawk still misses him

yep...

One of my many projects when I retire for good will be a thorough boxscore, play-by-play, pitch track analysis of all the homers I’ve caught, thanks to baseball-reference, hit tracker, and any other cool sites I can come up with.

But until then, I’ll just have to go off of anecdotal recollections, and IIRC, Howry served them up pretty good. As did Rusch, Trachsel, and some scrawny right handed kid from Las Vegas…

So Heilman is just unlucky?

I’d love to see his numbers minus-September. I’d bet they look a LOT like his stats in 2008 (which were ugly).

Anyway, I’m not saying the Cubs should be paying Grablow so much. But you’re just not going to convince me that he’s worse than Aaron Heilman.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grabojo02.shtml

no...

heilman has the same luck as every pitcher in the big leagues

GRABOW WAS LUCKY

they both have the same skill set, which is to say they both generally are LEAGUE AVERAGE PITCHERS

Grabow just looks shinier in WHIP and ERA because his luck inflated those numbers

look at the rest of his career

ERA consistently in the mid 4’s, WHIP consistently in the 1.4’s

ERA consistently in the mid 4s?

His ERA in 2008 was 2.84! His ERA in 2006 was 4.13 — which isn’t great, but not in the mid 4s.

So, in three of the past four years, his ERA was NOT in the mid 4s.

A little help w/ babip, if you would

one aspect of that stat I’ve never understood. Some pitcher as said to be harder for hitters to “square up”, some tend to break a lot more bats, some are more extreme ground ball pitchers. Can’t some factors directly attributable to the pitchers skillset have an effect on babip and not just be luck?

Grabow, for instance walks more than his share of hitters. Couldn’t that simply be that he’s giving hitters fewer fat pitches?

davidalanu - November 19, 2009 reply

Pitchers can control BABIP to some extent...

particularly in their allowed ground ball/fly ball ratios.

Mulhollandmania - November 20, 2009 reply

Check out Heilman's RISP

Pretty brutal, I would say. I’m not saying Grabow is great, but Heilman is garbage. I’m from the New York area and I don’t have MLB.TV or MLB Extra Innings, so I get the "privelage to watch a lot of Mets games, or watch no games at all. Sadly, I watch those schmucks because I am a baseball fan. Watching Heilman pitch there was exactly like watching him pitch for the Cubs: it’s scarier than Psycho, and I’m not even a Mets fan in the slightest. When they traded for him, I knew exactly what we were getting, and its exactly what we got. Good riddance, Aaron.

OK, but why is my memory that

every time something was really on the line, a call for Heilman was a call to lose. Garbage time, he was untouchable. Close games, put your crash helmet on.

ClarkFan - November 19, 2009 reply

That's exactly what I remember

When you’re up or down 10 runs, it doesn’t matter that you can strike out the side

I won’t miss him

not signing either

is better than signing heilman and not signing grabow

Grabow's OK, Heilman was scary

plus Grabow is the coveted lefty. Alway good for a July deal even if he is struggling.

ClarkFan - November 19, 2009 reply

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

There goes the season.

j/k

Jamison1 - November 19, 2009 reply

IT'S HAPPENING?!

dtpollitt - November 19, 2009 reply

Evidently, it happened.

Yes! Yes!

i just heard about this

i guess i am not really that surprised. heilman probably won’t be all that successful until some team lets him start.

santoswoodenlegs - November 19, 2009 reply

ROFL!

DMCub - November 19, 2009 reply

oh god, rec

caption “hahahahaha……wait what?”

Hack - November 19, 2009 reply

I think the D-Backs will give him that chance

They have two open slots I think after Webb, Haren, and former Mizzou star Max Scherzer.

nji232 - November 19, 2009 reply

i hope so

aaron’s earned it

how exactly has he "earned it"

I get that lots of people think being bad at your job entitles you to a promotion, but that’s simply not the case.

Nunyabidness - November 20, 2009 reply

Regarding Heilman becoming a starter, it appears doubtful.

This came across my Twitterwire yesterday from D’Backs beat guy Steve Gilberts:

Sounds like #d-backs to use newly-acquired Aaron Heilman in relief. “Has stuff to get both LH’s and RH’s out,” GM Josh Byrnes said.

Here’s Gilbert’s blog post on the deal, which he describes as a “low-risk move.”

Josh Byrnes is deluding himself.

Has he ever seen Heilman actually pitch?

Ya gotta wonder.

Heilman’s career splits vs. LHs aren’t great – .751 OPS. In all fairness, though, I thought Heilman’s stuff alone actually looked pretty good. He just can’t seem to adequately control it anymore. And I really wonder about his confidence level – he always looked like a nervous wreck on the mound.

Perhaps the D'Backs will.

santoswoodenlegs - November 19, 2009 reply

If we get to face him....

that would go a long way towards helping us win more games in Arizona.

d'backs have a minor league team (AA)

in south bend. if things don’t go well, aaron could be right back where he started

That's not Double-A, that's low-A (Midwest League).

The only way Heilman gets there is on a rehab assignment.

oh, ok

aaron would really have to bomb to go that low, i guess

which is certainly a possibility

Nunyabidness - November 20, 2009 reply

Go Silverhawks!!

BleedsbluinMI - November 19, 2009 reply

Ya

went and saw them a while back, their pitcher Jarrod Parker played high school ball for my cousin. Got to meet him and a few other players.

nick_reny - November 20, 2009 reply

I'll miss you, dear friend.

hello darkness

my old friend. aaron had just told the local newspaper in logansport how much he liked pitchingt for the cubs. his family is firmly ensconced in the chicago ’burbs now

Oh, well.

He can still live here in the offseason if he wants.

and he might get a chance to start in Arizona

He definitely wasn’t going to get that in Chicago.

true

very true

he probably will

and still, in his heart, root for the cubs. as a boy, aaron was a huge cubs’ fan. i wish this heilman – cubs story had a better ending. a non-descript trade before the winter meetings. that’s baseball, i guess..

Do you have a link for that article?

so...

we had two relievers almost the same in terms of production: Grabow and Heilman

one of them we just gave 7.5 million dollars over 2 years, forfeiting the chance at a potential draft pick and potentially letting him walk for free

the other we traded for two non-prospects

so from a net perspective we have cost ourselves 2.15 million this year (3.75-1.6) and the difference between a top 3 rd pick and the prospects received in return

terrific.

Yes but only one of them is left handed.

Left-handed doesn't mean much in this situation

Grabow was signed to be the primary setup guy. Left or right – doesn’t matter. He’s the primary set up guy. That trumps what arm he throws with.

If you’re going to bring LH into the discussion, then you’re back into a LOOGY situation and based on what’s been said so far, Grabow was not signed to be a LOOGY.

Well Lou sure seems to use him like one

To be fair he does usually get more than one batter but he usually comes in to face a lefty.

I'm not sure I buy that Grabow will be the primary setup guy;

it smells like the report that Aaron Miles would be in the mix to be a starting 2B, and possible top of the order bat.

DGU - November 19, 2009 reply

using "smells" and "Aaron Miles" in the same sentence...

life is back to normal

LAcarl519 - November 19, 2009 reply

Aaron Miles is our setup guy now

Nooooooo!

Archie - November 20, 2009 reply

Being left-handed does have its advantages...

apparently a left arm

is worth 2.5 million dollars

I'm left-handed.

Where do I sign?

You mean you didn't call up Lou last year when he was looking for lefthanders?

You know what my opinion of Lou is...

It really does.

I think teams – rationally or otherwise – believe they simply must have at least a couple/few lefty arms in the pen.

Look, I'll get the shovel and bury the horse, if you'll just quit beating it.

davidalanu - November 19, 2009 reply

Quit lying to me...

Jim Hendry…

…traded a Notre Dame alum…

…away from the Cubs??

That’s impossible.

If you believe that, then...

… as Vin Scully once said, “The impossible has happened!”

Next, you're going to tell me that

Jake Fox will be our gold-glove 2B in 2010…

I said impossible, not preposterous.

LMAO!!!!!!

and he got a guy who went to PURDUE !

carmen_fanzone - November 19, 2009 reply

Nice to have a Boilermaker on board!

yuck

Cub Style - November 19, 2009 reply

brilliant

carmen_fanzone - November 19, 2009 reply

Awesome

Great to see a Boiler on board!

Itchy - November 20, 2009 reply

Booooo

carmen_fanzone - November 21, 2009 reply

Nice looking jersey

*snicker

Archie - November 20, 2009 reply

Looks pretty ordinary to me....

..care to expand?

we still got

samardzija. i would think the shark is untouchable…

His NTC says you think correctly.

AndrewJStone - November 19, 2009 reply

Let's sign Tim Brown and Lou Holtz to some positions.

Cub Style - November 19, 2009 reply

don't give our moronic GM any ideas

Nunyabidness - November 20, 2009 reply

...

So that's how you learned English... :-)

O si si si...

Mi inglish es bueno now, no?

Si es muy bueno ahora...

Mi español no tan mucho…

Shanghai Badger - November 19, 2009 reply

اسمي كرس انا يتكلم العربية

DTJchris - November 19, 2009 reply

This is the 2nd result on a Google search of

اسمي كرس انا يتكلم العربية

Auch fremdsprachigen Meldungen Posten wollen...

eths - November 20, 2009 via mobile reply

我喜欢这些岗位

Shanghai Badger - November 20, 2009 reply

So do I

eths - November 21, 2009 reply

Google sez...

اسمي كرس انا يتكلم العربية (Arabic >> English)

I devoted my name speaks Arabic

eths - November 20, 2009 via mobile reply

haha

The devoted is كرس but that’s how I have figured out to spell my name in Arabic, KRS basically. Little lost in translation, but it should read, “my name is Chris I speak Arabic,” which isn’t entirely true, I am in the process of learning the language. So I may have speaks instead of speak.

DTJchris - November 20, 2009 reply

lol!

Emelie - November 19, 2009 reply

maybe Jimbo can trade the LSU double-play combo to a team

in need of a marketing gimmick.

LAcarl519 - November 19, 2009 reply

As I posted in the Fan Shot...

Mr. Miles, your plane is ready.

Let's hope so.

If he's going to Clinton,

wouldn’t it just be easier to give him a car and a map?

So long, you freakin' Gas Can!

MrNFL - November 19, 2009 reply

Is it safe to say one Aaron down and one to go?

Jody Jody Davis - November 19, 2009 reply

Here's hoping.

So what becomes of the “No Aarons Club”?

It changes its name to the "No Aaron Club"

And not to forget, not all Aarons are bad Aarons

His name was Hank not Aaron

bheidge - November 19, 2009 reply

That's not Hank Aaron?

Could have fooled me.

Aaron as last name = Good

Aaron as first name = Suck

bheidge - November 19, 2009 reply

Aaron Pryor is on line 2...

No, wait – he just hung up and he’s coming for you!

I really liked Hank not Aaron

when I was a kid

LT - November 19, 2009 reply

God I hope so.

sue369 - November 19, 2009 reply

Nice!

Putting $5M into Heilman and Grabow was a bad idea. This is much more palatable.

less worse

is a great way to describe this day

putting 3.75 million into grabow wasn’t a good start

I'm not too worried about the Grabow deal.

It’s not great, but this team was desperate for bullpen help. I’m just glad they didn’t massively overspend on it.

its locking in a loss

Grabow’s never been worth 3.75 million, not sure why he would be now

if you have a limited budget why spend a decent amount on it on a net loss in value? That seems asinine

we’re STILL desperate for bullpen help after the Grabow signing because frankly… he’s not that good

He's not that bad either.

He’s consistently posted 0.5-1 WAR over his career. The Cubs are paying him on that level. I don’t like tying up the resources in the bullpen, but given the uncertainty at the position I can make an exception in this case.

Oh, and if you’re looking at pitching values, Stat Corner is better than fangraphs for the moment. They use tRA (which is slightly better than FIP), and they mark park adjustments.

i'm looking squarely at peripherals

K/9, BB/9, HR/9, HR/FB

all largely suggest he’s a mediocre option that we just paid a premium for

Why not look at tRA,

which combines those peripherals… and includes park factors?

ok

i will

and they’ll lead me to the same exact conclusions which you just confirmed below

we paid a premium on a mediocre option

I'd quibble with the word "premium"

I think we mostly agree here. I’m just a little less upset about it. It’s not really that much money, and it’s better spent there than on someone like Aaron Miles.

Oh, wait…

The stat guys

need to pull out situational stats. Seems to me Aaron was fine coming in at the start of an inning, but not so good coming in with some runners on.

We were pulling out hair out by mid-season last year here on this board over that problem.

He could no be trusted to hold runners, that’s bad for a reliever.

BleedsbluinMI - November 19, 2009 reply

Here are his numbers

From statcorner (http://statcorner.com/pitcherRP.php?id=346848&team=CHN&year=2009&leag=N_L)

WAR by year: -0.3, 0.9, 0.3, 1.6, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, 0.5.

That averages out to .6 WAR/year. If you expect the FA market value for wins to be set at ~$5M/win and you just use the WAR/year for your WIN estimate, then he should be worth $3M/year. That’s about what he’ll get paid.

that's the FA market

the FA market is inherently assuming a premium on top of being able to develop it

we likely have internal options from all the AAA pen guys that can replicate that production or at least 80% of it, for a small fraction of the cost and then allocate these resources somewhere where we have a chance at getting even value

I agree with everything you wrote there...

and I generally don’t support the team spending money on middle relievers, unless they’re top-flight guys (Grabow isn’t). That said, Hendry isn’t overpaying on Grabow’s market value. Given the uncertainty in the position and the pressure to at least keep his currently useful arms in place (if not add to them), he could have done much worse.

100% agreed.

where does grabow's signing

leave marshall?

The more interesting question is...

what happens to Marshall with Gaub and Maine waiting in the wings in AAA?

Marshall could be prime trade bait.

Maybe he could be included in a Bradley deal somewhere — that might make such a deal quite attractive, to get a lefthander who could move right into someone’s rotation.

He gives them more time to develope

Not sure Gaub is ready for prime time and I sure don’t know enough about Maine. Marshall is always trade bait but worth keeping unless part of large deal.

that's a light judgment scale

when we’re applauding “could’ve done worse”

No doubt.

I’ll admit I’m setting the bar pretty low.

Oh boy.

I have officially relinquished the Aaron Heilman Sucks Fanclub presidency and dumped on some poor sap from Phoenix. I feel so relieved—pun intended.

im going to miss our club meetings consisting of pancakes and fruit punch...

I hope we don't have to form another club.

I really do. I want to be all peaches and sunshine for the new season.

¡Muchas felicidades!

Have you posted the opening on the Diamondbacks SBN site?

Bill Potter - November 20, 2009 reply

You know what makes me sad?

Felix Pie ~~—> Gregg Olsen -~~→ Aaron Heilman —→ 2 C-level prospects.

You know what makes me more sad?

The above + the Cubs need for a CF’er.

i've been on that bandwagon for over a year

no forward thinking in this organization

drives me nuts

maybe we can

cut a deal with Baltimore?

drewishdrewid - November 19, 2009 reply

Yep, historically speaking, this is the bitter bottom line.

(Uh, if a bottom line could, in fact, be bitter.)

That was actually Garrett Olson.

And Ronny Cedeno was included in that deal.

Still not a very good take.

OK, how about

Cedeño —> Miles

LOL...

clearly, it’s football season. :-)

dartmouthcubsfan

did your wife sleep with grabow or something?

lol

ummm...

no, i’m just tired of a baseball team that was supposed to be changing its mantra with new ownership making the SAME mistakes

oh

had me fooled

Instead of bitching about it non-stop, DCF,

why not say what you would have done instead?

(Nice post, jc.)

i think i did say it

i would’ve offered arb and let grabow walk, scoop the pick or pay him the 1 year arb value

i would’ve then used caridad and other younger candidates to fill the bullpen roles and save the money to dedicate elsewhere where marginal dollar value can be found

You have a lot of faith in Caridad, etc.

Not saying it’s totally misplaced, but you know as well as I do bullpens are the must fungible part of your team. I’m not sure I want a bullpen full of nothing but young guys who don’t have much of a track record.

Of all the things the Cubs could/couldn’t do this offseason, I’m not sure signing Grabow is worth this much angst.

Exactly.

It does, I think, tell us one other thing — that Hendry is no longer attached to players who were once his pet acquisitions. He had been after Heilman for quite some time — at least he admitted he had made a mistake and got rid of him.

Let’s hope Miles and Bradley are next.

Were you all...

discussing the Miles+Bradley = Milwood rumors elsewhere today?

what?

what Miles AND Bradley rumors?

yeah let me see if i can find a link...

http://cubsrumorsandnews.blogspot.com/

Not the most reputable source...

- First reported by David Kaplan that the Cubs and Rangers are in serious talks for Bradley. Bruce Levine also chimed in yesterday saying if the Cubs sent Bradley to the Rangers it would be for Kevin Millwood. Now I am hearing from my sources that a Bradley for Millwood (maybe including Aaron Miles) swap is in the final stages and they are just finalizing the money situation in which Millwood is still owed his signing bonus. I am also hearing that the Cubs may in fact pay Millwood’s entire contract including the signing bonus if they can include Aaron Miles in the same deal which would offset the money some.

My source also stats that the deal could be done as soon as Tomorrow because the Cubs and Rangers both want to complete a deal before free agency starts on Friday. I will keep you updated on this as new info comes across.

Well, I hope this turns out to be true.

It’s along the lines of what I suggested last week.

Indeed.

I’m not that high on Millwood. But again, that would be a “they could do much worse” situation.

he'd be fine in the Jason Marquis role

Yup,

5th starter and innings eater. He’s not awful. League-average. And for your 5th SP in the NL, that’s not bad at all.

also ...

Milwood has played on some good teams over the years — just like Marquis. Kinda weird.

Although..

… Millwood has not pitched in the postseason since 2002, with Atlanta.

wasn't he on the Cleveland team that made the postseason in 2007?

Oh, never mind

He was with the Indians in 2005.

Nope.

He was on the Indians one year only, 2005.

cowsarecool220 - November 19, 2009 reply

That's the year he won the ERA title

with a losing record. Very strange.

Not so strange.

He had the fourth-lowest run support of any AL starter in 2005.

The Jade Scorpion - November 19, 2009 reply

Agreed.

a Fifth starter who’d likely win about 12 games here and eat around 200 innings? That’s a formula for a stronger bullpen, too.

Yep.

This would be making the best of a bad situation. I’d do it, as I said last week.

Let me see if this adds up...

Gameboard = $21M over 2 years
Miles = $2.5M over 1 year

Millwood = $12M over 1 year + ($7-$9M) reimbursement for signing bonus annuity (I’m not sure what the exact number would be; I’m guessing about one-half.)

Assuming that Bud would allow that much cash to change hands (and I think he would), it seems like Gameboard for Millie is about even.

I can’t imagine why the Rangers would want Miles “thrown in” since they are trying to cut costs and Miles is more effective (when he is effective at all) in the NL as a double-switch guy. The Rangers need a backup SS to replace Omar — maybe Blanco?

Doesn't smell right

This seems off.

Bradley’s value has been estimated at around $6M for one year, and for many reasons, it is hard to assign the second year a value since most teams would like to be able to get rid of him after one year (hmm that sound familiar).

Any team that takes on Miles salary is basically just eating money for the Cubs.

Millwood, while overpriced, is just not in the same category of bad contract as these other guys. I’d love for it to be true, but I am skeptical.

that'd be great

That trade and a deal for Granderson, and I like the team a lot next year.

Oh wie geeiiiiilllllllllllll.....

(and no, I will not translate wie geil)

when rumors are not vetted by Tim Dierkes (at MLBTR), you'd be well advised not to spread them

(recall the AGonz for Konerko deal that was fabricated to increase site traffic earlier this week)

Andronicus - November 19, 2009 reply

I don't mind people repeating them...

as long as the source is made clear, as it was in this case.

MLBTR today:

We talked to a source familiar with the situation who said that this deal is not being discussed. Backing that up, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan talked to a Rangers official who said it’s “not happening.”

Andronicus - November 20, 2009 reply

Jon Heyman agrees.

The latest via Twitter:

@SI_JonHeyman if minaya turns castillo into millwood (13-10, 3.67) he should get 1 more 3-year extension. not happening. #mets, #rangers

This would be amazing

Although David Kaplan is a blundering idiot

Hm, well, the souce doesn't exactly scream "trustworthy"...

…but it’s certainly something to keep an eye on. I’d be OK with that deal, too.

+1

Not a great signing, not an awful one.

the point is

its the same mistake being made repeatedly

bullpen guys are extremely difficult to predict year to year and we’re spending the majority of our remaining dollars left on that area and not only that but on a middling player

its a mistake that has consistently been made by this organization

this is assuming

that we know for sure what the payroll is supposed to be.

its been quoted a number of times...

that it would be a “slight” rise over last year

but...

who’s to say what that is? What benefit does management/ ownership have in outlining their exact plans for everyone to see?

I would think that if they told everyone their plans, that it would limit their leverage in certain situations such as trades.

Dartmouth is right on this one

We might regret spending this money on Grabow. It could really go either way, IMO.

Dartmouth's right on the stated budget figures

I'm not saying

that it isn’t so, and our payroll won’t still be around 140 mil. I’m simply suggesting that not a single one of us can say with 100% certainty what next year’s figures are going to look like

It could really go either way, IMO.

That’s the problem. Middle relievers have small sample sizes and are inherently inconsistent from year to year. That’s why they’re usually a bad investment.

Then no team should every sign a middle reliever

for more than the league minimum.

Or "ever" sign one, for that matter.

Fair enough.

I agree with this overall philosophy. I just also understand the pressure on GM’s sometimes makes them do inadvisable things. Such as signing middle relievers.

DCF has a point...

The biggest issue for me is that Lou horribly abuses his relievers (see Howry, Bob; Eyre, Scott; or Dibble, Rob), then throws them in the trash heap. If the contract were for 1 year / $4M, OK. Guaranteeing him two years will likely be bad due to injury (or pitching through injury) in the second year.

DartmouthCubsFan - November 20, 2009 reply

Even if Grabow bombs

He is still a LH RP. That makes it reasonably easy to trade him. Many didn’t think there would be a market for Eyre… and they were able to get rid of him.

I’m of the mindset that I like Grabow better at $3.75M for two years than say $3.25M for three years. Meaning… if he is “disposable” as so many perceive middle relievers to be… it is easier to move him on a two year deal than on a three year deal.

fsuapollo - November 19, 2009 reply

Rec'd

DGU - November 20, 2009 reply

eyre was dfa'd

not really a great example

Well... he was traded.

So I don’t really see how it doesn’t work as an example. According to the article, we didn’t fork over any money and got a minor leaguer in return.

fsuapollo - November 23, 2009 reply

Umm... lost in all this Heilman & Grabow love/hate fest...

…Tim Lincecum won the NL Cy Young today. 2nd in a row. Not bad.

I was gonna post that...

… given that I have posted the other awards this week. But the Heilman deal was bigger news to Cubs fans, anyway.

Are you guys surprised a little by this?

The conventional wisdom was that either Carpenter or Wainwright would get it. I guess the voters couldn’t decide between them, so Lincecum was the most palatable option. Not a bad choice, but I think either of the two Cardinals might have been more worthy.

Wainwright not getting that 20th victory probably killed it. IIRC, that was the game the Cardinals were leading the Brewers something like 6-0 and lost something like 12-7.

they all deserved it imo

Make it the Tri-Young award?

exactly

but i guess we have to settle with the High Young Award

jc does it again

And here I thought you’d lose a little off your fastball in the offseason.

actually i stole the high young award from the yahoo sports article about this

We need to get Geo off that Puero Rican shit and on whatever Lincecum is smoking.

AndrewJStone - November 19, 2009 reply

Timmy is on some of that Hawaiian kush.

We need Geo on that, that pineapple kush booai!

cubbiebear316 - November 20, 2009 reply

No, a catcher needs a clear head to call the game

Get the pitching staff into Lincecum’s stash – sometimes too much thinking just ruins a pitcher.

ClarkFan - November 20, 2009 reply

Dock Ellis approves from beyond the grave...

ballhawk - November 20, 2009 reply

A little kike the joke Lincoln made about Grant

When told that Grant drank, Lincoln is supposed to have asked what kind of whiskey so he could send a barrel of it to each of his other generals.

ClarkFan - November 21, 2009 reply

Tri-pitcher cup?

El Borto - November 19, 2009 reply

Decent return

Considering who we traded. Maine has a shot at being a LOOGY. Could be in AAA next year. Runs a decent high 80’s/low 90’s fastball with a plus curve. Think … Casey Lambert, who he’s essentially replacing for 2010 with Lambert coming off surgery.

White has a nice name, but I’m doubtful he has much of a chance. Ridling will likely be at A+, so he’d have to fight for time in AA. Just not sure how he fits into the picture, and not sure sending him down to Peoria ball is worth it. A corner IF without power. It’s tough to see him being more than filler.

Considering what we gave up, I’m pleased enough with the return. We could use another lefty in the upper ranks, even if they decide to drop Maine to AA (I think he’ll be at Iowa, though). Papelbon is a slow warmup guy who might not be ideal for pen duty, and Lambert’s on the mend.

toonsterwu - November 19, 2009 reply

How much do we all miss baseball

that the trade of a middle reliever can bring out so much discussion?

yeah...absolutely

when do pitchers and catchers report? :-)

zevkalman - November 19, 2009 reply

In 88 days I think

Not soon enough

Touché

There's no specific date yet.

It’s usually around Valentine’s Day.

Officially the best day in 2009 for the Cubs!

ak123 - November 19, 2009 reply

Now if only we could get a deal for Aaron Miles

Ace Venom - November 19, 2009 reply

Miles and Theriot for Mauer, straight up.

I can't wait for the...

“he has an expiring contract, at least they’re getting something for him.”

Stuff like that boggles my mind.

Cub Style - November 19, 2009 reply

He has an expiring contract! At least they're getting something for him!

Well they ARE!…

lolz

And in typical Cubs fanshion

Heilman will become the first non-starter/non-closer to win the Cy Young in 2010.

RiskyBusiness - November 19, 2009 reply

no

gregg will

Thanks goodness

Aaron Heilman was / is terrible.

BLou - November 19, 2009 reply

for the first time

i agree with blou wholeheartedly

BEST BASEBALL NEWS OF THE OFF SEASON....

So far anyways …….I thought the Cubs would be stuck with him forever ….

cubs north - November 19, 2009 reply

I will miss his stirrups.

I really like that style.

katie casey - November 19, 2009 reply

+1

BigJohnAZ - November 19, 2009 reply

True, he did rock the stirrups.

Yeah, but he couldn't stay on for 8 seconds...

ClarkFan - November 20, 2009 reply

Glad I was wrong

I had a feeling they were going to hang on to Heilman and I’m glad I was wrong. They can do as well or better with one of the young pitchers. If one of these prospects makes it to the majors, that would be a bonus. Credit Heilman for pitching pretty well at the end of the season.

AboutTheCubs - November 19, 2009 reply

Talked

to a couple of my buddies last night and they said Maine the left hander sports a fastball from 89 to 93, marginal breaking ball they called a slurve and a avg change, tough against left handers. They also said his control is slightly concerning. White the first baseman they likened to Ross Gload who’s kind of hitter with some in the alley power and can fill in at 1b and maybe left field.

Slamdog - November 20, 2009 reply

White sounds like a Hoffpauir

With better average and less power

So maybe Ross Gload is a good comparison. If he makes it to the pro’s, even as a career backup, the Cubs come away winners IMO

The Cubs are already winners.

Remember that the Giants had claimed Heilman last August and the Cubs could have given him away for nothing.

At least there’s now some return for him. Jim Hendry did good here.

jesus christos - November 20, 2009 reply

And Heilman will

bounce back and have a good 2010. And people will wonder why the Cubs traded him away. He’s a relief pitcher; most of them are volatile. They go up and down.

But Hendry did probably maximize the value of Heilman. He traded him while he wasn’t pitching!

RiskyBusiness - November 20, 2009 reply

I don't agree

Heilman isn’t someone whose post-Cubs career will be that closely watched. And I don’t think he’ll be that much better anyway.

elgato - November 20, 2009 reply

the last four years for heilman as a reliever have been

down-down-down-down

the reports on maine that I've heard

suggest a solid curveball.

toonsterwu - November 20, 2009 reply

OT (slightly) For the Stats Impaired

Perhaps this has already been done, and if so, I apologize in advance.

I’d really like to have someone knowledgeable (Mr. Goldman) post a stats primer for those of us who just don’t have the time (or inclination) to research on our own. Things like what the major offensive, defensive and pitching indicators are and which web sites are best for obtaining such information.

This thread is a great example of the value of various stats to the discussion of two particular players. Anecdotal discussion is interesting, and sometimes valuable, but the positing of scientific analysis certainly gives one pause to take a second and third look at a each argument posted here. Just a thought.

Luigi - November 20, 2009 reply

I Forgot to Add

That Shawn Goldman’s posts have been very interesting but I find them a bit above my level of understanding. I’m glad he’s on Al’s staff. I’d just like to see a breakdown of the various statistical categories, what they mean and what the standard for each is. That along would go a long way to enhancing the various discussions. Just sayin’.

Luigi - November 20, 2009 reply

Rec'd

Al/Shawn, this might be a great thing to have on the side, where the “rules for BCB” listing is, etc

DartmouthCubsFan - November 22, 2009 reply

Good-bye To Heilman

We knew you and we will hardly miss you

gaclaudy - November 20, 2009 reply

Wow we totally fleeced the D'backs

The ironic thing is I was calling for Heilman to start during Spring Training… he actually looked really good for a while there… then he faced major league hitters and it was soon evident he had to go. I’m REALLY glad this was the first move in the Ricketts era… I’m anxious to see what else Jim can pull off now.

lswaidz - November 20, 2009 reply

heilmn deseved a better chance to actually have had

a more fair shot at starting, where he might’ve had had excelled; while marshall had had had had had had had had had had had not quite as good spring training, yert marshall’ve had had wound up in the bp, anyway..

brian custer - November 22, 2009 reply

there's little chance

someone who hasn’t had success relieving would have success starting

relieving is generally far easier since you don’t have to go through a lineup multiple times.

There goes the bullpen

2009:Mark DeRosa::2010:Aaron Heilman

cubbybear - November 20, 2009 reply

LMAO

+1 rec

gaclaudy - November 20, 2009 reply

possible trade that would be Millwood to the Mets and send Castillo to Chicago and Bradley to Texas

http://twitter.com/NYPost_Mets/status/5894203444

drodd - November 20, 2009 reply

Chicago Tribune

The Tribune has also picked up on that:

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2009/11/cubs-explore-bradley-deal-that-would-net-castillo.html

ZeoBandit - November 20, 2009 reply

The fact that Phil Rogers has the byline makes it dubious by default

Shanghai Badger - November 20, 2009 reply

he's not the only one reporting it

elgato - November 20, 2009 reply

See above - it's being shot down left and right.

Agreed, from what I have heard.