The Season May End Tonight: World Series Game 5 Preview, Yankees vs. Phillies, Monday 11/2, 6:57 CT

by Al Yellon on Nov 2, 2009 1:00 PM CST in Game Threads

Grudgingly, I give the Yankees credit. Every time they've needed to come up with a big hit in a key situation in this series -- in fact, in the entire postseason -- they've done so. George Steinbrenner & Sons have bought themselves a championship this year, if they win tonight, by buying CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira, two of the most important components of this Yankee team.

Still, they have to get past Cliff Lee tonight first -- and Lee has been the best pitcher in the 2009 postseason, winning three of his four starts, throwing two complete games, and allowing only two earned runs in 33.1 innings. I think we'll have at least one more game after today, game six in New York on Wednesday, because I think the Phillies will win tonight. And after that, who knows? Both Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia would have to pitch on short rest in games six and seven -- unless Joe Girardi wants to give Chad Gaudin a start, something I'd think would be about on par with Joe having both his arms sawed off.

Coming back from a 3-1 deficit in the World Series has been accomplished five times: 1925, 1958, 1968, 1979, and 1985. There have been 36 seven-game World Series that ended up four games to three, so based on history, there's about a one-in-seven shot for the Phillies to pull off the comeback.

I hope they do -- not only because I've been rooting for them, but because there hasn't been a seven-game series in seven years and I'd like to see one.

Yankees at Phillies, 6:57 pm CDT. Yankees lead series 3-1. TV: Fox. Announcers: Joe Buck and Tim McCarver.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Phillies site The Good Phight and Yankees site Pinstripe Alley.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

0 recs | 107 comments

Comments

First!

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Phillies won tonight or even pushed it to seven games. Lee is “unflappable” and Pedro has pitched really well.

Also ESPN radio reported that Benjie molina is catching tonight, one less offensive threat for the Yankees. Just saying

Musicdude10 - November 2, 2009 reply

I think you mean Jose...

… but I agree with you. They’ll win tonight and Pedro will be successful in his next crack at Yankee Stadium.

After that, I actually don’t care who wins… but it’d be cool to see some Game 7 drama.

Dou - November 2, 2009 reply

I hate Fox and hate the Yankees, so

if the Yankees are going to win the damn thing, I hope they do it in 5 so that Fox loses it shirt on this thing once again. (Fox can’t make money unless the WS goes more than 6 games most of the time—the stupidity of how this thing is bid.)

But I am hoping the Phillies win it in 7…unfortunately, that would make it a financial winner for Fox, but I would love the humiliation for the Yankees—that would offset the financial win for Fox.

The Yin/Yang of baseball continues…

LAcarl519 - November 2, 2009 reply

Johnny Damon's steals

I couldn’t believe how over-hyped that event has become. ESPN.com even mentioned it as “one of the greatest moments in WS history”.

Are you kidding me? The HBP and ringing double by ARod into the left field corner, I’m pretty sure, would have scored Damon from 2nd base.

Was it a heads up play? Of course it was. Did it have a huge impact? I don’t think so.

Some will say Lidge was off after that, or was afraid to throw the slider with a guy on 3rd. As Bobby Valentine said last night, if you stop throwing the slider with a guy on 3rd, you either need a new catcher, or a new pitch.

Philly’s bullpen is horrible. They’ll still win tonight and force Game 6 in NY.

Canadian Cubs Fan - November 2, 2009 reply

I disagree...

…I stated this in another thread, but I’ll repeat here.

We’ll never know what kind of impact it had, but these are the type of plays that fly under the radar and really can’t be measured. It was a very solid instinctive play by Damon and helped create a situation that I think helped out Rodriquez. Lidge relies heavily on getting guys to chase his slider in the dirt, and with a man on third (vs 2nd) Lidge is going to be much more cautious about throwing a 59 footer up there. Rodriquez ended up getting a good fastball to hit and that was the ballgame.

MPH73 - November 2, 2009 reply

You can conjecture as to the reasons why

but the indisputable fact is that Lidge did not throw any sliders to A-Rod or Posada once there was a runner on 3rd. Since the slider is his best pitch, by definition, he got beat throwing his 2nd or 3rd best pitches, which is something that will always be 2nd guessed.

azjazzman - November 2, 2009 reply

Exactly...

…and since Lidge’s fastball is very very hittable, the Yankees got him in exactly the position they wanted him in.

I don’t care what Valentine says, it is always in the back of the pitchers mind (wild pitch) when you have a key run at 3rd. I don’t care if his catcher was Johnny Bench in his prime, it affects most pitchers. Did you see Lidge contantly liking his chops? He was concerned, and probably felt he may over throw a slider 5 feet in front of the plate and this affected his pitch selection.

MPH73 - November 2, 2009 reply

Funny

It’s his best pitch, but he wouldn’t throw it with a guy on 3rd? Tons of faith he showed in his “best pitch”.

There are two outs in the inning…focus on the hitter, get him out…and move on.

Any pitching coach, or any pitcher for that matter, will tell you they never want to get beat on their 2nd or 3rd best pitch. Lidge failed in not covering third, and then failed again in his gameplan to ARod.

Canadian Cubs Fan - November 2, 2009 reply

Again...

…what’s important here is why he didn’t throw his best pitch, and I think it was because of the risk of a potential wild pitch. If Damon doesn’t use his smarts to get to third, I think it’s likely Lidge gives Rodriquez a steady diet of sliders and likely gets him out.

MPH73 - November 2, 2009 reply

Yankees and Money

I suppose if I were in the Yankees situation, I’d do the same thing. Spend lavishly on free agents and hope they pan out. Oh yeah, having a decent farm system helps, too. The failure of many high-priced free agents with high payroll clubs to be productive is what has given some small-market teams a chance that have good farm systems. The Yankees seem to be spending their money more wisely these days.

memphiscub - November 2, 2009 reply

The key thing about....

…both the Phils and Yankees is their strength up the middle. Both clubs are rock solid in this area (with home grown talent) and this is one area the Cubs have to improve if they want to put together a perennial contender.

MPH73 - November 2, 2009 reply

ex-cubs factor says yanks by one

jerry and chad vs. paul, stevie and matt stairs – right?

doofus cubs guy - November 2, 2009 reply

Does the manager count?

If so, Joltin’ Joe Girardi should tie it up for the Yanks. And if I remember the rules, its either a flip of a coin or a flip of a goat. Either way, I hope it ends tonight so we can get to the best part of the post season (since the Cubs aren’t in thee WS), THE HOT STOVE!

dansram - November 2, 2009 reply

Big game tonight...

…and if the Phils can win, I think this baby goes seven and then it could get interesting.

MPH73 - November 2, 2009 reply

Monday Night Football has my attention tonight

Ace Venom - November 2, 2009 reply

Phillies chances

Shouldn’t the Phillies chances be calculated as:

(number of times a team has won after being down 3-1) / (total number of times a team has been down 3-1)

It’s Monday so maybe I’m missing something, but I don’t think the total number of times a series has gone to seven games comes into the calculation.

Dou - November 2, 2009 reply

Hmmm.

You’re probably right. Didn’t look at all those series.

Al Yellon - November 2, 2009 reply

Baseball is still being played? It's November for Pete's Sake!

The “World What” now? Serious?

What idiot scheduled “the summer game” in freaking November?

Zeke - November 2, 2009 reply

It's been colder in April.

Current temp in Philadelphia is 56, supposed to be in the high 40’s/low 50’s at game time. We’ve seen worse.

Al Yellon - November 2, 2009 reply

And Bud is thanking his lucky stars too...

I also remember having 6" of snow on the ground at this time of year in the midwest.

Zeke - November 2, 2009 reply

Just imagine if the Rockies had won the pennant.

There was a huge snowstorm there last weekend.

Al Yellon - November 2, 2009 reply

they could have had the World Series at a neutral site

cubnational - November 2, 2009 reply

That must have been taken after the blizzard of 1979.

Right?

Al Yellon - November 3, 2009 reply

It is called the "Fall Classic"

It’s still fall, but if they keep this up it’s going to take the place of the Winter Classic. I’m willing to bet that only works well for hockey/

gizmo6d9 - November 2, 2009 reply

It was warmer...

… at the Winter Classic at Wrigley, last January 1, than it has been for a couple of Opening Days.

Al Yellon - November 2, 2009 reply

Can't we move the start of the season up?

You could play as many series as you could on the West Coast and in retractables, and finish the season before the final week of September.

Also, you cold avoid November baseball with a floating playoff schedule, moving dates up if the LDS or LCS finish early, like happened this year.

Canadian Cubs Fan - November 2, 2009 reply

Once again...

… the problem with playing too many series in warm weather/domes early in the year, is that those teams don’t want games loaded up in March & April either — because they, like everyone else, draw better when schools are out.

The floating playoff schedule — or just eliminating all the off days DURING series — would work better.

Al Yellon - November 2, 2009 reply

that would take a commissioner not like the budster -

as soon as fox said you can’t do that because it might mess with our football tv bud would just say ‘ok’ and then come out and tell the press that he’d really like to have a day game

doofus cubs guy - November 2, 2009 reply

Please don't end, baseball season.

I’ll have nothing to do but work.

: – (

Bleed Cubbie Blue