In 2008, the Pirates had the worst record in the NL Central (though only the third-worst in the league), and their fourth consecutive 90+ loss year was also their sixteenth straight losing year, tying the major league record set by the Phillies from 1933 through 1948.
I'm here to tell you that the Pirates are going to break that record this year, but perhaps there is some light in the proverbial tunnel that will allow them to snap that streak by 2010 or 2011.
Before we continue, let's talk about the red uniforms. I am well aware that the Pirates made red one of their accent colors and had the red jerseys made to honor a former Pittsburgh mayor. Bur seriously -- couldn't they have chosen another way to honor him? A red bill on the cap? A flag at the park? A day in his honor?
Anyway, the good news is that the Pirates are dumping the red jerseys this year (I think McDonald's called and asked if they could have the entire set), and instead will have a classy-looking black button-front shirt as their alternate shirt.
They'll look better, but it won't help the results on the field. Last year, they traded away many of their better hitters, including Jason Bay and Xavier Nady, and collected a whole bunch of miscellaneous minor leaguers from the Red Sox and Yankees ("Say! Those guys are winners! Let's go get some of them!"), some of whom may help the Bucs in the future, and some who will become the answer to Pirate fans' trivia questions.
The Pirates really haven't changed a bit from the team that lost 95 games last year. Oh, except they have sent Tom Gorzelanny, who was a 14-game winner in 2007, to the minors. Gorzelanny's a mystery -- he couldn't get anyone out last year, posting an ungodly 6.66 ERA (and against the Cubs it was 17.18 -- that's right, a SEVENTEEN-PLUS ERA, 19 hits, 10 walks, 5 HR and 21 runs allowed 1n 11 innings. Cub fans should ask for his return), and had a bad spring. It's really inexplicable unless there's an undiagnosed injury.
Other members of last year's Pirate rotation return: Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, and Ian Snell. The fourth and fifth spots will be filled by guys like Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens (who were acquired in the Nady deal) or Virgil Vasquez, all of whom posted ERA's north of 4.00 last year. Karstens made his mark in his first two NL starts after the trade, throwing six shutout innings against the Cubs and then shutting out the Diamondbacks. But after that his NL ERA was 5.70, about in line with the rest of this woeful staff.
The Pirates have a decent closer, Matt Capps, who saved 21 games in 2008 despite spending almost two months on the DL. The problem is, there's really no one to bridge the gap between the bad starters and the ninth inning. Capps didn't blow a save in his first 15 chances last year, then blew five in the last three weeks of June and wound up on the DL. Healthy now, he'll save whatever games the Pirates manage to win.
The offense is centered around All-Star Nate McLouth, who is a fine player and who signed a contract extension over the winter. The Bucs are apparently trying to build around him, which isn't a bad idea, but they have little to build with. Catcher Ryan Doumit had a breakout offensive season and if the LaRoche brothers can have good hitting years, the Pirates may actually be able to score some runs. They'll need to, as they finished dead last in the NL in runs allowed in 2008 (884) and that isn't likely to change this year.
Pirates having good springs include Andy LaRoche, who is hitting .483 with six homers and Jeff Salazar, who has four HR and 13 RBI but who is apparently going to be cut because he's left-handed on a team looking for right-handed hitters -- just the opposite of what the Cubs are doing. The Pirates signed ex-Cub Craig Monroe and he's also having a good spring, hitting .286 with 6 HR and 11 RBI. Andrew McCutchen, the Pirates' top prospect, is also having a good spring, hitting .280 with 10 runs scored, and might wind up in the Pittsburgh outfield before 2009 is over. It's with guys like this that the Pirates could be contenders by 2011 or 2012.
But for now, predicted finish: last place, another 90+ loss season, the record 17th straight with a losing record.
That concludes the look at the 2009 NL Central. If you have liked this series, post in the comments; I could continue it next week with the rest of the NL if there's enough interest.
0 recs | 57 comments
First
MikeOxbyg - March 20, 2009
sorry, had to do it.
MikeOxbyg - March 20, 2009
Thanks
I loved the series, nice job and thanks!
Jasely - March 20, 2009
Actually
The Pirates did have a red-billed hat.
Keith - March 20, 2009
And the link didn't show up for some reason.
http://www.lids.com/pid/20076670?cpoi1=1
Keith - March 20, 2009
That's a decent looking cap.
They could have done the “Redd” honor with that instead of the jersey.
Al Yellon - March 20, 2009
You mean the fast food worker vest?
halfblindcubbiegirl - March 20, 2009
It's really a shame
The Pirates are in a great sports town (Pittsburgh supports the NFL, NHL and collegiate athletics quite well) and have one of the best ballparks in MLB. It’s just too bad that they cannot even put a competitive team on the field.
You’d think they would have at least gotten a bit lucky once in the last 16 years. If other small market teams like the Brewers, Twins and Rays can have success, it’s a shame that Pittsburgh can’t follow a similar blueprint.
wrigley_boy - March 20, 2009
how much of that
lies in talent evaluation rather than the ability to spend big $$$
Cubbie-Tim - March 21, 2009
Yes, thanks.
I have certainly found these helpful.
bakester - March 20, 2009
good stuff
Keep it going
Bpatterson83 - March 20, 2009
I like the series
Thanks Al. Let’s keep it going.
Ihatethecards - March 20, 2009
Thanks.
I think I’ll do that.
Al Yellon - March 20, 2009
For sheer grotesque uniform ugliness:
Visualize the Pirates in their red uniforms visiting Oakland when the A’s had their green-and-yellow abominations.
MN exile - March 20, 2009
Didn't the Pirates...
Have some pretty gaudy bright yellow uniforms with funny-shaped caps in the late 70s/early 80s?
jdb-44 - March 20, 2009
You mean these?
Al Yellon - March 20, 2009
And these...
Al Yellon - March 20, 2009
Worst.Caps.Ever.
bluekoolaide - March 20, 2009
Yep.
Between the weird caps, Cub killer Dave Parker, and Tony Pena’s odd catching stance, I feared them greatly.
jdb-44 - March 20, 2009
This cap is almost as bad.
Al Yellon - March 20, 2009
I love these hats
100yearitch - March 20, 2009
Green and yellow is much worse!
Those Pirates unis were not so great, still, the Oakland stuff has to be the ugliest baseball uniform of all time – the only thing that comes close is the White Sox short pants mistake.
Wasn’t there a thread about ugly uniforms last year?
MN exile - March 20, 2009
one image cannot do true justice to the fashion gaudiness that was the Pirates in the late 70s.
you have to take as step back and appreciate that there were 9 different combinations of black, gold, and pinstripes that could be used on any given day. They made no distinction between home and road. Imagine how much fun Z could have had on those teams determining what was to be worn on the day he pitches.
Here’s an excerpt I found from Glenn Gearhard’s compilation of all the Pirates uniforms through the years. This was from 1977 and speaking as a Pirate fan who survived that era, yes – the Tekulve-modeled pinstripes are the worst. uniforms. ever.
ballhawk - March 20, 2009
Example of awful green-and-yellow Oakland uniform
Al Yellon - March 20, 2009
The Pirates are building organizational depth
which was virtually non-existent under the Bonifay/Littlefield regimes. While Karstens, Ohlendorf and Daniel McCutcheon won’t be Cy Young candidates any time soon, they’re young, cheap, and probably better than most of Pittsburgh’s recent No. 4 or No. 5 starters.
Unless McCutcheon just struggles mightily at Triple-A, or the Pirates try to delay his arbitration clock, he will be up in Pittsburgh at some point.
I don’t see them breaking .500 this year, but I think they’ll be more competitive, to the point where they spoil the attempts of the Cardinals, Brewers, et al, in staying close to the Cubs.
I’ll do my best throughout the year to provide details on what Pittsburgh has available at the Triple-A level – it’s the least I can do since I’ll be over at Victory Field throughout the season.
Bill Potter - March 20, 2009
Thanks, that'll be helpful.
I agree with you that the Pirates may be a bit better, but will still struggle at times.
Incidentally, Karstens isn’t really “young” — he’s 26. So is Ohlendorf. They’re both older than Zach Duke.
Al Yellon - March 20, 2009
They'll definitely struggle
It seems like every year they get to a point where they turn a 3-game losing streak into a 7 or 8-game one. That’s one of the things that holds them back – is the mentality of losing. I think Russell and Huntington are changing it, ever so slowly.
Another thing, IMO, that held the Pirates back – especially their young pitching (Duke, Maholm, Gorzelanny, etc.) – has been the lack of a consistent message from the pitching coach. When Duke had his best year in 2005, it was followed up by Jim Tracy and Jim Colborn coming in in 2006 telling him he had to redo his delivery – he hasn’t been the same since.
Joe Kerrigan will be the Pirates’ fourth pitching coach in the last five years, which can’t help, especially as changes are made.
I’d agree, Karstens and Ohlendorf are both older, but they’re definitely a change from the Kip Wells’, Mark Redman’s and Matt Morris’s of the world.
Bill Potter - March 20, 2009
True.
That Matt Morris deal is still a head-scratcher.
Al Yellon - March 20, 2009
I'd say that was the straw that broke Littlefield's back.
By the way, I forgot to mention this above, I like these previews a lot. I’m all in favor of keeping them going.
Bill Potter - March 20, 2009
Love the series ...
Let’s hear what to expect from the East and the West
StampMe - March 20, 2009
+1
malicedoom - March 20, 2009
I'm going to keep the series going...
… but with a twist, for the other divisions I’ll do them in REVERSE order of my predicted standings.
Al Yellon - March 20, 2009
Al, I've found the spotlight of the NL Central very interesting.
I would really appreciate if you would continue the series and profile the rest of the NL.
(Really, we need SOMETHING to discuss other than the last bullpen spot or the back-up catcher!)
How about also profiling the “other league” (AL) since it’s your name) and also something interesting to discuss.
cowsarecool220 - March 20, 2009
I always like what you write
I would do a condensed overview of each division, instead of a team-by-team breakdown. The Cubs only face those teams twice.
But, as always, thank you for your hard work and insight.
chilango2 - March 20, 2009
Interesting ideas above.
I could do it that way, or team by team, or just do the AL teams we face (White Sox, Tigers, Indians, Twins).
Any other thoughts?
Al Yellon - March 20, 2009
I would like to see a team by team version
But depending on how much time you’re spending on putting them together, even a more concise division grouping would be nice to see.
chitownhawkeye - March 20, 2009
Glad you are going to continue this series
Whichever way you decide to continue this (either an overview of each division or team by team) just want you to know that the information you provide really helps me get to know the other teams better. I have always just concentrated on the Cubs and never really paid attention to other teams to be a better all around baseball fan.
tucsoncubsfan - March 20, 2009
The Pirates are only our enemy because....
they also lose to the Cardinals, Astros and Brewers…otherwise, seems like they’re on board with the Cubs winning the Central.
tony412 - March 20, 2009
Ha
cubswynn - March 20, 2009
The good old days
when the Pirates were our AAAA farm club. Dave Littlefield was one of the best farm directors we ever had.
Josh Timmers - March 20, 2009
Maybe that's why the Cubs hired him!
Al Yellon - March 20, 2009
HA!
cowsarecool220 - March 20, 2009
Per Twittermeyer:
Harden has the flu now. Throwing a sim game this morning and going home. Atkins will start today instead. Quick, let’s make fun of him for going out and boozing last night!
Schwa - March 20, 2009
Canadiens can throw em back
bren - March 20, 2009
Isn't sad that...
…the most discussed topic about the Pirates is not the team itself, rather than the horrible uniforms. Props to the new ones though, I think they are pretty sharp.
cubswynn - March 20, 2009
Maybe if they look better, they'll play better?
My Mom always told me that when I was growing up.
cowsarecool220 - March 20, 2009
Nate McLouth
is a nice player, but he’s really not a guy to build your team around, at least not if you want to contend for a pennant. He’s already 27 and he doesn’t have enough power or OBP skills to base an offense on. He’s a great complimentary player, but that’s what he is.
I don’t think Andrew McCutchen is either. He’s still young (22) but he doesn’t get on base often enough and his power is strictly ho-hum. He’s got a chance to be Curtis Granderson, but he’s also got a chance of being Gary Matthews Jr.
He’s also not the Pirates top prospect. That would be Pedro Alvarez who, if the reports are to be believed, has a chance to be . . . well, Albert Pujols is a little strong. Not quite that good. Maybe Derrek Lee with a little better power?
The problem with Alvarez is that if he does develop and become a superstar, what are the chances he stays in Pittsburgh? He’s represented by Scott Boras and he’s already had a major contract squabble with the Pirates. He’s not going to sign a long-term contract with the Pirates unless his career is disappointing. And if that’s the case, the Pirates would be foolish to offer it.
The Pirates are in a nasty cycle. The market isn’t that small, but their revenues are because they’ve been so bad for so long and their fans have lost interest. Their farm system is worse than ours if you take out McCutchen and Alvarez. They need to rebuild from the bottom and they’ve started that, but they’ve got a fan base that’s really tired of hearing the word “rebuilding.”
Josh Timmers - March 20, 2009
I think they are headed in the right direction
But it’s going to take some time. Littlefield left Huntington a mess of a system, so Huntington’s had to fill in the gaps. He needs at least another good draft, and perhaps two, to really rebuild the system, along with some shrewd trades (I can smell that Adam LaRoche trade this summer … ).
I liked both of Huntington’s moves last year. I know some people thought he sold Nady/Marte a bit low, and I can definitely understand that, but what he did was gamble on upside, and add some high floor guys. Tabata has question marks, but there is upside to his game. Arms like Ohlendorf/McCutchen/Karstens are all guys that, while the team is rebuilding, can offer some help. Cheap arms always have some value, if they show any ability. Karstens and McCutchen have enough stuff that, with some luck, they might be passable 3/4 types in a rotation, with Ohlendorf more of a 5th starter (think a slightly better Justin Berg). In the pen, Ohlendorf is more your typical middle reliever, a guy you bring in hoping for the DP ball, with McCutchen more “versatile” out of the pen.
I also liked the other trade. Andy LaRoche isn’t as good as he was hyped, but he deserved a chance, and Craig Hansen has late inning stuff. The OF, name is slipping my mind right now (Moss?) is a guy that’s a useful depth OF, passable starter I think, and Morris offers some more upside. I thought that was a solid return for what they gave up.
That said, I think 2009 is going to be rough. Now … it’s possible that, with some luck, they might do better than people anticipate (I’m anticipating 60-70 wins). Maybe Ian Snell bounces back. He’s their best raw arm, a guy that has number 2 type potential. Maybe Maholm continues his strong pitching. That said, Snell is inconsistent and Maholm has average stuff. Duke is another mid-end of the rotation lefty in terms of stuff.
Their isn’t much pitching on the horizon so I’d look for Huntington to focus there. Morris is an intriguing arm, but other than that, not much upside. They need pitching and gobs of pitching. They do have decent positional options. McCutchen should be up in the majors before summer. He should take over center, pushing McLouth to a corner spot. Moss is a capable OF option. I think Pedro Alvarez will be up this summer. He’s that good with the bat. Think Aramis Ramirez offensive potential. The question is if he sticks at third. If he does, there’s a chance that they move Andy LaRoche to 2nd (and perhaps keep Adam LaRoche). That said, my guess is Andy at 3rd with Pedro at first, and Adam getting dealt for pitching. I like some of their system middle infield options such as Brian Friday and Jim Negrych.
There’s enough of a core there to think that, if Huntington makes the right moves, that this team might have an outside shot at pushing close to 80 wins in 2010 (even then, that’s probably a positive scenario). That said, 2009 is going to be tough.
toonsterwu - March 20, 2009
Keep it going!
We need to be a community of educated, smart Cubs fans (which I think we are) but I think that what seperates the majority of us, rather than just saying “Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates, Oklahoma City Thunder, etc. SUCK!”, we actually are able to hold intelligent debates about our favorite sports and rivalries.
Keep It Going Al, impart that baseball knowledge!
heine41 - March 20, 2009
Nice work, Al
I’m looking forward to your take on the rest of the NL. This will be helpful for my fantasy baseball team.. I’ve neglected studying for too long.
Champ Summers - March 20, 2009
The only surprising thing about Gorzellany.....
is that he actually won 14 games last year. Must have all been against Washington, Florida, San Francisco, and all other losing NL teams. I remember the Cubs pounding him twice within a week last year—once at Wrigley, once in Pittsburgh.
ctcoff99 - March 20, 2009
Maybe he's this years
Rich Hill. Obviously we’re not watching Pirates ST baseball but he must have been pretty bad to be demoted this early in the pre season.
tony412 - March 20, 2009
Actually
he was 6-9 last year, 14-10 in 2007.
Bill Potter - March 20, 2009
Didn't he pitch great against the Cubs when he first came up in 2006?
That was during the season of misery and I think he threw a complete game shutout in an embarrassing low number of pitches. Not sure I’m remembering that correctly, it seemed like every game that year was embarrassing.
cowsarecool220 - March 20, 2009
Al
have you thought to do one of these on the teams in other divisions expected to be in contention in September?
Cubbie-Tim - March 21, 2009
I'm going to do shorter posts on the NL West and East this week.
Al Yellon - March 22, 2009
Loved the series
jbrobe04 - March 21, 2009
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