This recap is a bit delayed because... well, I needed to get up and get something to eat after sitting in one place watching five hours and thirteen minutes of Cubs baseball (thanks to BCB reader lswaidz for posting the extra-inning fanshot, incidentally).
There were 473 pitches thrown in the Cubs' 6-3, 14-inning win over the Reds this afternoon -- 230 by the Cubs, 243 by the Reds, by a total of sixteen pitchers. It got so ridiculous that three starting pitchers were used as pinch-hitters, including the Reds' Matt Maloney, who had just made his major league debut last night. He went 1-for-2, and can't you just see Dusty Baker looking at his stat sheet and saying, "Hey! I got a guy hitting .500! I gotta send him up there to hit!"
It wouldn't have lasted that long if Carlos Marmol had any semblance of command today; he walked both of the hitters he faced and threw only three strikes in his 11 pitches. I'm worried about him, especially since he seems to usually throw better with more work. Aaron Heilman came in, relieved Marmol and got out of the inning with only one run scoring -- it could have been far worse, because after a run had scored Heilman loaded the bases with an intentional walk, but got out of the inning.
And after that the Cubs bullpen was absolutely outstanding. From the ninth through the 14th inning, six innings worth of work, they allowed four hits and three walks (one intentional), struck out six, and got out of jams admittedly of their own creation. Props especially to Jose Ascanio, who appears to have arrived as a major league reliever. He had good movement and velocity and mound presence today, especially after having not pitched since last Sunday. The same can be said for David Patton, whose last appearance was also one week ago. He threw 13 strikes in 20 pitches in two good innings and registered his second major league win when Alfonso Soriano broke the tie -- and scored the first Cubs run in 11 innings -- with his 14th home run leading off the 14th inning.
Angel Guzman, who had to pitch only because the game went so long, got his first major league save. I hope it's the first of many -- right now, he's the best pitcher in the bullpen.
It's unfortunate that Randy Wells, who threw well for the sixth time, still remains without a major league victory. (At one point Len Kasper got so loopy from the length of the game that he called him "David Wells", apparently morphing David Patton with Randy Wells to get the former lefty's name.) The Cubs have won only two of Randy's six starts, but he left two others with the lead, and that's all you can ask from a starting pitcher circa 2009: that he leaves the game having put his team in a position to win. After that it's up to the bullpen, which has been bad, but perhaps, just perhaps, turned it around today. All told Cub relievers today threw 7.1 innings and gave up just one run.
Offensively, the Cubs -- as did the Reds -- squandered numerous opportunities to win the game both in regulation and in extra innings. The Cubs had RISP with less than two out in the 9th, 10th, 12th and 13th innings but could not score, either running themselves out of the inning or having them ended on double plays. Soriano's homer, to the opposite field (and caught by a couple of what appeared to be extremely happy Cubs fans), seemed to awaken the bats, because four of the next five hitters reached base, putting the game safely away.
A bit of history: during the game on WGN Len said that Cubs media relations director Peter Chase reported that the last time the Cubs had played four extra-inning games in a stretch of five games was in late September 1943 (except for a stretch in 1951 that involved a suspended game). I found a few more long stretches of extra-inning games:
Enough -- it's exhausting just reading that list. I'm sure the entire team is thankful for tomorrow's off day and that they don't have to play again till Tuesday night. That will provide rest for the bullpen, which is now quite overworked. Best result of all today: the Cubs picked up ground on all three teams that were ahead of them starting the day today, because the Brewers blew a late-inning lead at Atlanta and the Cardinals lost their third straight game to the Rockies. You think the Cubs have pitching trouble? You think the Cardinals are invincible? St. Louis just gave up 28 runs in three games to the Rockies -- at home, not in Coors Field. The Cubs sit 3.5 games behind the Brewers, but only two in the loss column, and all of this despite the injuries and turmoil of the last month. Again -- if they can just hang in there till everyone comes back, good things will still happen this season. Enjoy the off day.
0 recs | 200 comments
Huge win today
As I watching the game, I felt it was a big swing game either way. Not only because the Brewers and Cards had already lost, but these long, grinding games seem to carry with them a sense of momentum. I think that this especially rings true since Soriano’s solo shot in the 14th led to a single, a walk, and eventually two more runs scoring. Kudos to the bullpen today, and let’s carry this momentum with us into Houston!
ambrosiadreams - June 7, 2009
Alfonso Soriano...
…I Can’t See Him.
Goodie1969 - June 7, 2009
Thanks for posting that.
I was trying to think of the phrase that goes with that gesture and came up blank. But that’s why I used it.
Al Yellon - June 7, 2009
daver - June 8, 2009
wasn't there a stretch
of extra innings games last year? They always seemed to happen against the Pirates. Right about the time Sori came back from his first DL stint.
This was an exhausting game, and the game-threads were… very interesting… for a while.
Soriano gets that HR, and the bats COME ALIVE! It was good to see. Hopefully this means more offense in general.
drewishdrewid - June 7, 2009
Cubs played...
… back to back extras vs. the Pirates on April 7 and 9, 2008 — but with a day off in between.
Then they did it again in Pittsburgh on May 24 and 25. That’s probably what you’re thinking of.
Al Yellon - June 7, 2009
yes
freakin’ Pirates.
drewishdrewid - June 7, 2009
God
that Pirate series last May was unbelievably annoying.
Allie - June 7, 2009
one of those
was the game Soriano just missed the ball late in the game and they lost. And then they went to St. Louis, and it happened to him again. He’s a better fielder now.
drewishdrewid - June 7, 2009
he pulled dual
Brant Brown moments
Cubbie-Tim - June 7, 2009
Soriano goat then hero
Don’t forget that it was two misplays earlier in the game by Soriano and several strikeouts that forced the game into OT. If Soriano had just displayed average fielding ability and one hit with runners on base, the game could have easily ended after 9 innings. Hero, I think not.
txtom - June 8, 2009
you have to take Soriano as a package.
you can’t say “well, look at his terrible fielding and strikeouts” without saying “but he hits a ton of home runs, and has a cannon for an arm.”
He’s a goat one minute, a hero the next. He won yesterday’s game for us.
drewishdrewid - June 8, 2009
How will these extra inning games affect the pen?
gaclaudy - June 7, 2009
Hopefully, the 48 hours off till the next game will help.
And Ted Lilly will throw a CG shutout on Tuesday.
Al Yellon - June 7, 2009
He'll also for 4-4
With 4 grand slams, in an epic 20-0 perfect game
lswaidz - June 7, 2009
And personally build a hurricane wall to protect the city of Houston from future storms.
Al Yellon - June 7, 2009
I can't believe he finds time for all that
While still protecting Tokyo from Godzilla attacks… what a stand-up guy
lswaidz - June 7, 2009
Don't forget that he'll successfully negotiate peace in the Middle East.
And find a solution to the health care crisis.
And, most importantly, find a way to avoid that nasty ring around the toilet bowl.
Cubfansince1957 - June 7, 2009
He is The Most Interesting Man In The World!
CaliCub - June 7, 2009
and solve the black out policy of MLB
ok, that might be asking a bit much
Cubbie-Tim - June 7, 2009
Let's go back to that Middle East peace thing.
That’d probably be easier than the blackout policy.
Al Yellon - June 7, 2009
At least someone might be able
to explain all the issues in the Middle East… can you say the same about the blackout policy?
Allie - June 7, 2009
is it possible the Middle East problems
are because of the MLB black out policy?
Cubbie-Tim - June 7, 2009
Ted Lilly get 5 runs for a GS
He’s just that good!
salparadise23 - June 7, 2009
Just a great week for this team..
They’re learning how to use their Pen, and it’s responding. They’re winning close games. They’re SP are continuing to come up big.
If you look at the team stats tomorrow, you’ll find a pleasant surprise in where the Cubs rank, both in their division and in MLB regarding both ERA and WHIP.
I couldn’t be more pleased with the problems being resolved right now. The hitting will come. When Ramirez is healthy, we’ll have most of the corps out there who led the league in runs scored last year. They’ll wake up, and as long as the momentum as kept on the pitching end, the Cubs will begin to look like the team to beat in the NL.
DisCUBbobulated - June 7, 2009
The Cubs are now 7-4 in their last 11 games.
In those 11 games they have allowed 30 runs — not all of them earned — and eight of those were in the blowout last Sunday.
Keep this up and good things will follow.
Al Yellon - June 7, 2009
This is the best run of starting pitching I can remember
Since at least 2003 or so
lswaidz - June 7, 2009
It's starting to look special..
Check this out. Their WHIP puts them in a lass by themselves in all of baseball (in inning 1-6), and they’re a close 3rd in ERA, leading in hits allowed, and 5th in walks allowed.
DisCUBbobulated - June 7, 2009
Looking through the comments,
I laughed at “in a lass by themselves.”
That’s really funny.
N Oakley - June 8, 2009
Talk about a best case scenario.
Hey-oh!
daver - June 8, 2009
Yeah.. at least I dropped only the C
and not the C AND the L!
DisCUBbobulated - June 9, 2009
We've given up the 3rd fewest runs in all of baseball
Unfortunately… we have trouble scoring them.
SackMan - June 7, 2009
Maybe not after today.
Al Yellon - June 7, 2009
Nope... still #3
St. Louis was a run behind us at the start of the day… but they gave up 7 today.
SackMan - June 7, 2009
No, I meant maybe we won't have trouble scoring runs after today.
Al Yellon - June 7, 2009
:)
I’d like to agree with you…
…
…
…
but, that’s a tall order.
SackMan - June 7, 2009
7-4
and you could make a compelling case for being 10-1, considering the Wells giveaway in Atlanta and the close losses vs. the Dodgers and Reds. (Not saying that as a complaint, just pointing out how good their pitching has been, for the most part.)
Not Bruce Froemming - June 7, 2009
Exactly.
Keep pitching like this and the wins will come.
Al Yellon - June 7, 2009
Our record when we give up 3 runs or less is pretty good...
if my math is correct, it’s 18-7.
SouthernCub - June 7, 2009
Well, you could make the case the other way too...
As we’ve been fortunate to win a lot of close games. But yes, we’ve havd a good chance to win in 10 of the last 11 games, and that’s a good thing.
SouthernCub - June 7, 2009
Big
I think this was big to win this game.
puckishcubsfan - June 7, 2009
Soriano is a big WWE fan
lswaidz - June 7, 2009
Is that John Cena?
Goodie1969 - June 7, 2009
yup
lswaidz - June 7, 2009
Man...
he looks like a walking steroid. It ’s like his jaw muscles just continue right down to his chest.
Goodie1969 - June 7, 2009
If there's any game that typecasts this team, it's surely this one.
Soriano going a fat 0fer, then getting a homer to essentially win the game.
Solid starting pitching, held together by the smallest of leads, only to have a bullpen pitcher blow it in epic fashion, followed by a bullpen shut down that was equally impressive.
Geovanny coming in late in the game to leave 7 LOB (SE7EN!!), and Bradley being used like a DH, to only pinch hit and actually come out with a walk.
Finally, Lee’s average has climbed to .262. I’d rather depend on him than most other guys on this roster right now.
Dan
PS – I laughed when you wrote something about posting a delayed recap, Al, made me think of that person that said “Lazy Al” the other day. Work = Work; Blog = Hobby
dtpollitt - June 7, 2009
True.
That was a LONG afternoon of baseball. Ultimately rewarding, but I still needed to get up and have dinner!
Al Yellon - June 7, 2009
DLee is starting to heat up
And it’s about time… his last 5 or 6 games have reminded me of 2005 Derrek as opposed to 2007/8 Derrek… really great to see. Although my dad is now going to go on and on about he’s the best player ever… slightly annoying :-)
lswaidz - June 7, 2009
Not including today....
… since May 1, Lee is hitting .337/.433/.578 with 5 doubles and 5 HR in 83 AB. Why, that might even be good enough for a #3 hitter!
Al Yellon - June 7, 2009
Didn't know his stats were THAT good
Even more encouraging :-) He seems to be getting his eye back… I noticed his batting stance has closed just a little bit and he’s leaning back before pitches again… same thing he was consistently doing in 05. Maybe he finally isn’t thinking about his wrist anymore?
lswaidz - June 7, 2009
gawd
that would be an incredible boost if it’s true.
drewishdrewid - June 7, 2009
+25
Cubbie-Tim - June 7, 2009
Other than the Big W of course...
Some developments from this game:
1. New confidence in Asciano
2. New confidence in Patton
3. Guzman emerging as the farm talent they were grooming for so long
SackMan - June 7, 2009
All great little victories
And even if we didn’t win, I’d hope that they’d all still ring true… baby steps like this will eventually payoff when we’re really fighting for the division come August/September!
lswaidz - June 7, 2009
On the bad side...
Fontenot is making mistake after mistake at 3rd base… we need to get a real 3rd baseman in there somehow, until A-Ram comes back. And even when A-Ram is back, they’ll be giving him days off.
SackMan - June 7, 2009
I think they have to try Fox there....
… at least vs. LHP. If he’s horrible, take him out, but at least get his bat in the lineup.
Al Yellon - June 7, 2009
Agreed...
We need to have somebody else in there against LHP, because it’s looking more and more like Fontenot may be overmatched against LHP. Fox appears to be the only option now that Blanco is a LH batter only.
SouthernCub - June 7, 2009
it's too bad Corey Koskie didn't work out
Not that I am blaming him for having post concussion syndrome. Just saying how big a boost it would have been to have a seasoned 3B with a solid bat filling in for ARam right now.
CaliCub - June 7, 2009
Right.
I think management figured Koskie would work out and thus the Cubs would have a backup 3B. When Koskie decided to retire, there was no backup plan to the backup plan.
Al Yellon - June 8, 2009
Hopefully
Today’s game will give Lou some confidence in those bullpen pitchers not named Guzman, Marmol, or Gregg.
salparadise23 - June 7, 2009
We're only 2 games over .500
Yet, we find ourselves just 3.5 games out of 1st place… having played 3 less games than Milwaukee and St. Louis.
Let’s start playing some winning baseball!
Oh… and keep rooting for the Rockies this week!
SackMan - June 7, 2009
Angel Guzman
Guzman has really shown me something so far this season. 6 holds, a WHIP under 1, 25 K’s in 27.2 innings. I really hope Lou uses him more out of the bullpen. He really has impressed me to this point.
Great win today. The bats finally woke up in the 14th, which made me, and I’m sure many of you guys happy. Lilly on the mound Tuesday, so I like our chances. Have a good night all, and GO CUBS GO!
CUBSfaninYANKEEcountry - June 7, 2009
If Lou can reduce Marmol's appearances with Guzman...
It might get Marmol back on track as well. ??
SackMan - June 7, 2009
If that happens, we'll have to..
Do an over/under on the chances of Gregg being the closer at the end of the year…
DisCUBbobulated - June 7, 2009
Oh, I think that would be great.
Guzman pitching so well has opened up many options that would not be available otherwise.
CUBSfaninYANKEEcountry - June 7, 2009
So far
My strategy of stayiing out of the game threads is paying off.
As for why this is the case, I don’t know. But who are we to question the baseball gods.
eswan9 - June 7, 2009
Ascanio was a great sight in this game, the hitting wasn't.
Jose Ascanio, in my opinion, has all but solidified his role as our #3 bullpen option behind Marmol and Guzman before we get to Gregg.
The hitting however was atrocious. The only impressive thing that I saw was Lee knocking in 2 on a single, RISP is the way to do it. Home runs should not be depended on either. The we go cold from the 4th til the 13th until we beat a pitcher that probably shouldn’t be in the bigs. Don’t get me wrong I’m elated that we won, but this isn’t our game of shining light.
Cub Style - June 7, 2009
I think the loss of Ramirez has really hurt the team
But injuries are a part of the game, so they need to suck it up until he comes back.
eswan9 - June 7, 2009
But... at least we played 14 innings and got the W
Neither team could hit when it counted today… although that’s pretty much the season story with our Cubs.
SackMan - June 7, 2009
So with Patton doing well today does he actually get into another game
or do the Cubs go back to having 11 pitchers?
Madison Cub Fan - June 7, 2009
I think it'll take more for Piniella to trust him in close games...
Remember – he went with Ascanio for three innings before considering Patton.
But hopefully Ascanio gets more action. We’ve actually been going with TEN pitchers for the last week.
SouthernCub - June 7, 2009
The curve ball was really effective for him today
And he hit 94mph with his fastball early in his appearance…
SackMan - June 7, 2009
I agree - he was fantastic today...
I just think that Piniella is slow to gain confidence in young pitchers (especially ones who struggle early).
SouthernCub - June 7, 2009
He needs another couple appearances where starts an inning in relief in a winnable game.
If he succeeds there, we can start to define a role.
SackMan - June 7, 2009
I agree he needs another couple appearances to prove something.
But I’d like to see Ascanio or Patton at least get in a game to get those chances. Point well taken on Ascanio, I had forgotton about him. I’d be happy to see 11 pitchers.
Madison Cub Fan - June 7, 2009
Asciano was fantastic in AAA
Maybe some confidence at the MLB level could get him on a roll.
SackMan - June 7, 2009
If you think today's game was long
The Padres and Diamondbacks are in the 18th inning. Our old friend Henry Blanco just came in to play third base for the Pads.
Not Bruce Froemming - June 7, 2009
Always rough to play extra innings on getaway day...
Especially an entire game’s worth of extra innings.
SouthernCub - June 7, 2009
Oy vay
SackMan - June 7, 2009
Hey, thanks for the post!
I’m going to go watch this game. Sounds like fun!
Al Yellon - June 7, 2009
Just went final
d-bags win 9-6 in 18 innings.
Any chances that counts as 2 wins? Yikes.
Allie - June 7, 2009
That's the 3rd 18-inning plus game the Padres have played in the last year or so.
Al Yellon - June 8, 2009
Argh!
Another reason the Cubs should’ve hung on to Hank White!
daver - June 8, 2009
How inaccurate is the "wins" for a starting pitcher?
Patton, who’s got good stuff but hasn’t been all that great, has 2 major league wins. While Wells, who has been completely fantastic, is 0-2.
Poor guy. I’m glad we won, but I can’t imagine Wells is a huge Heilman fan.
Allie - June 7, 2009
Yeah, Wells is exhibit A for why wins are a poor measure of pitchers...
Granted, his case is incredibly extreme. But still…
SouthernCub - June 7, 2009
Response: VERY inaccurate.
daver - June 8, 2009
Great win
Was at work couldn’t follow the game until 5pm eastern time. I feared that the Cubs would lose the game because they just haven’t hit a lick all week.
Not only was Soriano’s HR huge to tack on two more was key.
Great pen work, Marmol does worry me also, he is over throwing and I am sure he knows it and has been told it.
Wells has to be good, this many starts in and he still is throwing well each time out.
Rich Hill updade: 2/3 of an inning, 3 ER, 4 BB and 1 HBP, ouch
Grockcubs - June 7, 2009
I'm really worried about Marmol
Even when he’s struggled before he usually finds “it”… but he’s been a mess.
Allie - June 7, 2009
thoughts about Double Stack
as a closer? I like the idea, he seems to have figured it out, and is electric out there
Cubbie-Tim - June 7, 2009
Double stack = Guzman?
I think he’s more apt to take over Marmol’s role as set-up/fireman type guy. Maybe if Marmol gets some work in less stressful situations he’ll start to get "it’ back.
Allie - June 7, 2009
Guzman = Double Stack, correct
and I think he is better suited than White Castle to close. He seems to have more confidence than White Castle.
Cubbie-Tim - June 7, 2009
Guz has 1 career save, todays.
He did well for never being in that situation before, but I’d like to see us ease him in to tougher spots first.
he’s responded really well, but you can’t throw that much at a guy. Esp since he’s new to the ’pen.
Allie - June 7, 2009
I understand that
and agree he needs to ease into it. I just feel most comfortable currently with him on the bump in stressful situations (and I had written him off earlier this season, he is making my eat crow on a daily basis)
Cubbie-Tim - June 7, 2009
I agree
I trust Gooze a lot. I like him and he’s always had great stuff.
Allie - June 7, 2009
I think that's a mental thing
right now, Guz should just take Marmol’s spot. Let Marmol come in at the beginning of the 7th, especially in low-pressure games, give him a chance to work out his mechanics and get his head straight. He was even having problems with his feet today.
drewishdrewid - June 7, 2009
Yeah
Marmol was a mess today. He looked like Dontrelle Willis to me with his arms and legs going in a million different directions.
Allie - June 7, 2009
i like this idea personally
White Castle – 7th Inn
Stinky Ben = 8th
Double Stack 9th
take the heat off Gregg a little as well, and split the two flame throwers up that way
Cubbie-Tim - June 7, 2009
maybe someday
but I think Gregg’s been pretty decent lately. If we could catch strike 3s, he’d look even better.
Allie - June 7, 2009
good point
and i wasnt saying Gregg has been horrid, but he is a reminder of why Loaden Up Lee and Wild Thing gave people heart attacks lol
Cubbie-Tim - June 7, 2009
Yeah
He’s been exciting. LOL
Allie - June 7, 2009
where did Gregg get Stinky Ben?
Madison Cub Fan - June 7, 2009
few days ago
Cubbie-Tim - June 7, 2009
slcathena
says he reminds her of a guy she knew in HS.
Allie - June 7, 2009
No need for this.
Just leave Gregg the closer – he’s experienced and has gotten the job done more often than not. No closer throws down perfect 1-2-3s every time. Save good arms like Guzman for putting out fires.
daver - June 8, 2009
Totally agree.
daver - June 8, 2009
Guzman
is who I feel most comfortable with on the mound right now. My stomach isn’t tied in knots when he is pitching like it is with Marmol and Gregg.
Having Guzman start by being the main set-up guy is the way to go, IMO. He has apparently added a cut fastball and that looked like a pretty effective pitch last night. He is going to saw off some left handed bats with that pitch.
If Marmol can get it back together, we are going to win a lot of games with the Marmol-Guzman-Gregg combo. Throw in Ascanio and Waddell (who looks like he will be a more effective LOOGY) and our bullpen seems to be rounding into shape.
gwood - June 8, 2009
Marmol better after more work ?
Not sure where that came from. He should work regularly but not like this. He has thrown 88 pitches since Tuesday.
That after throwing another 22 in his WORTHLESS appearance in last Sunday’s blowout. You simply can NOT use him like this. Lou supposedly hates walks , well NO one is walking more than Marmol 27 walks to 29 Ks. This is nuts. My dislike of Lou’s managing and his overuse of Marmol in particular is well known since last season. My one hope is that today’s outstanding performance from all those pitchers he won’t trust might change his mind just a little bit.
Doggie Stalker - June 7, 2009
More Jack Wilson trade talks:
Wilson’s name has been involved in talks with Seattle and, oddly enough, San Diego during the past two weeks. Also… Orlando Cabrera’s name finally popped up this year, as should be expected.
from MLBTradeRumors.com
SackMan - June 7, 2009
The Red Sox can have Jack Wilson.
Ugh. What a horrid contract.
Al Yellon - June 8, 2009
Joe Morgan trying to say he should've won a gold glove over Davey Lopes.
Can this guy give credit to anyone?
SackMan - June 7, 2009
he gives himself a lot of credit
does that count?
Cubbie-Tim - June 7, 2009
He is the only person who I think is worse than Judd
At least Judd is only one inning a game, not 9 once a week
Madison Cub Fan - June 7, 2009
there was a small
Sirott Attack late in today’s game. Pat lost his grip on his bladder.
drewishdrewid - June 7, 2009
I must have missed that I watched a few innings @ the gym.
Madison Cub Fan - June 7, 2009
13th inning
I think.
drewishdrewid - June 7, 2009
Al, I think you'll need one of these the next time the Cubs play the Reds...
ballhawk - June 7, 2009
lmao
Allie - June 7, 2009
one per 7 innings?
Cubbie-Tim - June 7, 2009
You would have needed some extra victuals as well.
By the end of the game they were only selling tiny bags of peanuts. We did get free mini cups of ice though.
Villeslgr - June 7, 2009
haha
sue369 - June 7, 2009
If I ever had to buy one of those for Al
because I lost a bet . I would go broke.
Doggie Stalker - June 7, 2009
That one could last me the whole season.
Al Yellon - June 8, 2009
That's the kind of drink
If you go to a movie theater, you get free refills on that size. The only problem is it’s so big you just can’t finish it.
Vermont Cubs Fan - June 8, 2009
Drink it?
I was thinking about swimming in it.
Not Bruce Froemming - June 8, 2009
Hey, you back in Chi-Town?
daver - June 8, 2009
yep, got back a few days ago.
ballhawk - June 8, 2009
Glad to hear it.
I hope things worked out as best they could back in California. I bet you’re lookin’ forward to returning to Wrigley this weekend.
daver - June 8, 2009
yeah, I think so. Wrigley Field has been known to possess magical recuperative powers...
…so here’s hoping some of it will find its way across the street. That, and a homerun or two…
ballhawk - June 8, 2009
I give Font a lot of credit
he learned from yesterday about getting back to 3B based on where a bunt is, and got there today. Kudos to him for learning that quickly.
Cubbie-Tim - June 7, 2009
Marmol's break down in his mechanics
looks similar to what happens to a golfer when the pressure is on. Marmol looks to be tensing up and throwing hard. It is a known fact that muscles work a hell of a lot better when they are relaxed. This is why Marmol has tended to throw better when tired. Unfortunately, now the stress in his head has him stressed and tense at all times.
You really can see the difference in his delivery (he stays on the mound, and his pitches snap better) when he is relaxed. When he tenses up, he flies open, usually landing well to the first base side and his pitches flatten out (and he can’t control where they are going because his body is too wild, not quiet).
I just don’t understand why Rothschild is not reviewing film with him, as even a novice like me can tell right away when he tenses up. I have studied body mechanics in golf, and I am not a baseball expert, but I can see two very different Marmols and he needs to be made conscious of this and work on staying calm. Quiet muscles work better. It is what pro golfers call “hitting 80%.” While we muni-hacks tend to always take our max-club and swing hard.
Marmol is throwing like a muni-hack right now. Larry and Lou have to get him to mentally think about the “golf equivalent of 80%.” That is when Carlos is un-hittable. The problem with Marmol’s mechanics are all between his ears and learning to relax when the pressure is on. Throwing harder to achieve results is not the way for him to succeed.
LAcarl519 - June 7, 2009
his mechanics
are messed up because he’s fatigued, his arm isn’t coming through as fast and the ball is “sailing” on him
if this was really a “pressure thing” or a mental thing why would he be so much better in these same situations on the days he comes in after having tons of rest? Why would the numbers show that direct correlation in his command? All of the sudden in those same pressure situations when he has rest he has no pressure issues and when he doesn’t get rest the pressure gets to him????
Maybe its just as simple as he’s fatigued from overuse
DartmouthCubsFan - June 7, 2009
I said it before
That is Alfonso Bleeping Soriano.
You will respect him.
Worf - June 7, 2009
And that is Carlos Zambrano...
You will respect him.
Jimmyeatworld - June 7, 2009
Maybe but you know what? I am seriously considering the possibility that he's not worth it.
I respect his numbers – past, present, and a reasonable expectation of the future. And I respect his ability to carry a team for weeks at a time when he gets on one of his streaks. We’ve seen that before, and I’m sure we’ll see it again – hopefully soon. And by respecting his numbers, I respect the fact that’s he’s pretty good defensively – certainly better than he appears and that many here give him credit for.
I may not understand all the statistical criteria on Sori that have been displayed here ad nauseam, but I can read numbers and can understand what’s good (or bad) on a relative scale. And above all else, I respect that at any given at-bat, he can lift one out of the park and hopefully into my glove on Waveland. So I’m reasonably confident I have no axe to grind, no grudge to bear, and no anti-Sori bias on display here.
But when I watch someone like Reed Johnson play, damn if I don’t think the team might be better off with RJ instead of Sori. I know the numbers won’t hold up that assessment, but in terms of enjoyment, excitement, team chemistry, and overall fundamentals, I wonder… I really do.
ballhawk - June 7, 2009
FWIW...
…RJ had a pretty bad defensive blunder today. Everyone has them. I think Sori’s are magnified bc of his huge contract.
cubswynn - June 7, 2009
understood.
and understand that I’m not making this assessment based solely on today’s game or even the last few games. I’m looking at the entire body of work – at least as much as I can remember over the last few years.
ballhawk - June 7, 2009
you plan on tweeting during the next home stand?
Madison Cub Fan - June 7, 2009
yeah, I'll be back out there.
probably have to do a mea culpa tweet and apologize for my absence the last few home series. From what I gather, I didn’t miss much – not too balls came out during BP and only the Reed Johnson homer during the games. Still, I’d like to see first-hand what Jake Fox can do – I imagine he can bomb ’em out to Waveland.
ballhawk - June 7, 2009
I think
they’re both valuable. It’s exciting to watch Reed play, and it’s exciting to watch Sori on a tear. They both have their flaws and their strengths. I’m glad they’re both on the team.
drewishdrewid - June 7, 2009
Great win today
Cubs are finding ways to win in close ball games. Runs will come!
heine41 - June 7, 2009
Didn't get to see all
of the game today but was thrilled to hear that they won. When I was in the game threads I was told this team was the same night after night and they had already lost. Hope those predicting a Cubs loss aren’t to disappointed that they did in fact win the game.
I am really worried about Marmol and happy to see the rest of the pen pitch well. We’ve been waiting for that to happen so I hope it continues.
GO CUBS!!!!
sue369 - June 7, 2009
The Guzman for closer campaign closer continues.
I’m confident Marmol will turn things around and handle the 8th. Gregg and a mix of others can handle the prior innings based on matchups.
cubswynn - June 7, 2009
Gregg has been a lot better lately
Right now I trust him more than Marmol.
Doggie Stalker - June 7, 2009
True but right now that isn't really a ringing endorsment is it?
Madison Cub Fan - June 7, 2009
Marmol did this last year going into the ASB.
That’s why I’m not too worried. He just needs some rest, a little confidence, and he’ll be back to being the badass we have all come to love.
cubswynn - June 7, 2009
I agree
but he does need some REST.
Doggie Stalker - June 7, 2009
I was at the game today.
Drove from Bloomington, IN 2 1/2 hours over to Great American. Nose bleed seats, really hot sitting in the sun, got up and moved to the first row on the first base side in about the 11th, then was forced to move, so ended up sitting in the 4th row just past 3rd. Its nice being able to do that at a ballpark, especially in extra innings after even more people leave (a lot harder to do at Wrigley)… great game to be at, great day outside.. home safe and sound.. CUBS WIN! – First time at Great American.. pretty nice place, Ill have to go back sometime.
SouthsideCUBSfan - June 7, 2009
The win was great but
it didn’t change a thing about our lack of offense. And we can’t suggest that it has been a small sample size. This team’s terrible in the clutch and it’s been playing uninspired baseball as if we were already guaranteed a playoff spot. For those who assume we’ll ultimately begin scoring runs, I ask why? It’s apparent that we’re not hitting the ball hard. It’s not that they’re just not dropping. We’re making soft outs and our BA is 13/26 teams. Our season RISP is .230. Can we afford to continue this run and hope ARam will save the day after the ASB?
tharr - June 7, 2009
why?
because Milton Bradley is not a .220 hitter. Because Rami will come back. Because Derrek Lee is hitting nearly .400 since the beginning of May. Because Soriano will come out of his slump.
drewishdrewid - June 7, 2009
I guess that
line of logic could also predict that Wells will fall apart, Sori will bat .350 the rest of the way and marmol will stop walking 9 men per 9 innings. While I applaud your optimism it doesn’t explain the mental flaws that continue most every game. I don’t see Soto suddenly playing All Star ball. I suggest this team isn’t experiencing a slump that we’ll suddenly snap out of.
tharr - June 8, 2009
that's not what the logic predicts.
the logic predicts that people will, on average, be close to their averages.
drewishdrewid - June 8, 2009
In a typical year
that’s true. However, when your entire offense is below average 1/3 into the season, it’s reasonable to look for a rationale to explain the performance. Last year we were 1st in runs scored. This year we’re 13th. I conclude that’s a trend, not a slump that will be addressed by playing the season out.
tharr - June 8, 2009
ok
the injuries do have an effect. As I’ve said before, I don’t think Lou’s #1 lineup has played more than ten times this year. Ramirez has only appeared in 18 games. that’s gotta have an effect on the runs scored stat.
drewishdrewid - June 8, 2009
Ok. A number of people were calling for Gerald Perry's head today.
They were saying “Hitting coach needed to teach the team how to shorten up and hit it to RF.” I’m pretty sure they know that already. I pointed out that a team wide slump can not be reasonably blamed on a hitting coach. It can be blamed on “pressing”. The whole team has been pressing, trying as hard as they might to get that hit that is needed so badly, inning after inning after inning.
What they needed was a psychologist. They got their psychologist in the top of the 14th, in the form of a much needed hit, (HR), from our resident whipping boy Fonzie. When a team is pressing sometimes all they need is that one big important hit to loosen everybody up. Fonzie’s hit did just that, and our boys in blue proceeded to put another two runs on the board to give Guz a little breathing room in the bottom of the 14th.
Is this team going to be ok? Certainly, unequivocally, YES. Why? We have arguably the best starting pitching in the NL, maybe the entire MLs. Our hitters aren’t going to slump all year. Aramis is going to come back for the entire second half of the season. Hoff is settling into his PH role quite nicely, (as is the Fox). Oh, and the bullpen is starting to shake out. Marmol needs some rest, and spot work from now until the break in order to get his confidence back. Gregg, (Stinky Ben), is starting to settle in. Guz and Ascanio are beginning to fulfill the promise that both, (Guz longer though), have always shown.
Lastly, and most importantly… If Fox can learn to play a little third, and Fonty can get some rest, then be back at 2nd where he belongs. If Freel can get his head out of his rear, then Miles will be gone, and we’ll have a suitable back-up at all positions.
I’m more excited about this years edition that last years after today’s game. All this adversity is going to make the team more versatile, stronger, and more cohesive. Why do I feel this way? I’m a dyed in blue, bleedin’ Cubbie blue, drewish kind of fanatic. I’m a diehard. The Cubs run through my veins. They ooze out out of my pores. When they finally win it all, which I believe will be this year, the world will change. It’s time to get on board, or get off. It’s always been a hell of a ride, and it isn’t going to get any less bumpy…
Jimmyeatworld - June 7, 2009
funny
you don’t look drewish. :P
usually I don’t enjoy off days. Tomorrow, tho, it will be nice to not have the stress of a Cubs game. :D
drewishdrewid - June 7, 2009
It will be nice without the stress, but I'll get more done; and with less worry!
Jimmyeatworld - June 7, 2009
TWSS
Goodie1969 - June 7, 2009
You got me, you got me. My mouth was open, that was a good one.
Jimmyeatworld - June 7, 2009
It's the fart game.
You’ll play it one day, son.
Goodie1969 - June 7, 2009
Eddie: Delirious. Best comedy album of the last 50 years.
Jimmyeatworld - June 7, 2009
Approve this message too! lol
I swear I still have that on cassette tape somewhere, but haven’t seen it in years…
CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) - June 8, 2009
it was released on DVD
a few years ago, i got it on Amazon for like 9 bucks
DartmouthCubsFan - June 8, 2009
I approve this message
.. apparently neither of us agrees with those in the game thread today who were saying we were “dead in the water”
rec’d
CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) - June 8, 2009
You may be right
about the one big hit theory. Hopefully Sori’s HR will do exactly what you are suggesting.
But another theory is that Lincoln (the Reds pitcher in the 14th) is just horrible. Hitters were hitting .325 off of him (before yesterday’s game) and he has something like a 1:2 SO:BB ratio and a WHIP of 2+. If we didn’t score off of him there is something really wrong with our offense.
gwood - June 8, 2009
Some facts about Soriano
Sori is:
* 1/3 of the way through the season, but has hit nearly 50% of the home runs he hit last year (14 so far this year, 29 last year), and is on pace to hit 42 Hrs this year.
* on track to equal his SB total for last year and the year before
* on track to have about the same number of Ks as he did last year.
* on track to play 44 games more than last year (109 last year, on track for 153 this year
* On track to have 717 PAs, his fourth most ever, and the most since 2006
* on track to walk 54 times, the second most of his career
* on track to get 160 hits, 30 more than last year
* on track for three GIDP
So he’s playing in more games, batting more, striking out less, walking more, hitting more…
and all with this terrible slump for the last 20 or so at bats.
Something to think about.
drewishdrewid - June 7, 2009
Huge disclaimer for all:
He only played in 109 games last year.
You said this drew, I know, but it’s unfair to compare HR, SB, or any other statistic knowing that fact.
dtpollitt - June 7, 2009
that's fine.
but his production last year took us to 97 wins.
drewishdrewid - June 8, 2009
It helped.
Shanghai Badger - June 8, 2009
Here's a fun one...
…who’s 5th on the team in VORP? Soriano. Who’s ahead of him? Dome, Riot, Aramis, Reed.
dtpollitt - June 7, 2009
All counting stats...
How do his AVG/OBP/SLG compare to last year?
kanderber - June 8, 2009
They're down quite a bit...
See below. He’s performed worse across the board proportionally this year compared to last year.
Now, I do expect him to play better moving forward, as he’s always been a streaky hitter.
But it’s very misleading to suggest he’s been more productive this year than last year. He’s actually been less productive, just more healthy.
SouthernCub - June 8, 2009
I know, I agree.
My question was rhetorical.
kanderber - June 8, 2009
ah, my bad
SouthernCub - June 8, 2009
That's not actually accurate...
He’s hitting LESS (.280 last year vs .241 this year), hitting for ever-so-slightly LESS power (SLG% down .045 driven largely by batting average drop), and striking out MORE (once every 4 AB this year, once every 5 AB last year), and walking ever-so-slightly LESS (once every 13.9 PA this year, once every 12.7 PA last year).
He’s actually been an average hitter this year – literally. His OPS+ is 100. Last year, it was 121.
SouthernCub - June 8, 2009
but he's playing more
so his decline has less of an impact. If he stays at his current paces, the numbers above come true.
drewishdrewid - June 8, 2009
If he stays at his current pace...
Then he’s just a league average hitter. .241/.305/.487 with 180K is not something to write home about (at least not in a positive sense). That’s an OPS+ of 100 in spite of hitting 42 HR. That’s not good when you have the biggest contract on the team.
I’m not sure why you’re celebrating the fact that he’s on pace to put up better count totals than a guy who played only 2/3 of a season. We’ve been getting league average production from Soriano this year. That’s not good.
Now, Soriano should get better, as he’s due for a hot streak. But you’re really reaching for a silver lining if you’re looking at his stats right now and thinking “good.”
SouthernCub - June 8, 2009
I guess
I see more runs scored, more RBIs, more hits as better.
drewishdrewid - June 8, 2009
I think you're being short-sighted about this...
Or perhaps you’re just being intentionally obstinate. You’re continuing to ignore the fact that the only reason he’s on pace to put up better count numbers is because he is on pace to play 40 more games.
He was an extremely productive player last year but was hurt a lot. This year, he’s been healthier, but he’s only been league average as a hitter. Do you not understand the difference?
He’s not playing better this year. He’s just playing more often. This is really simple stuff. Do you honestly not understand, or are you just being intentionally difficult?
SouthernCub - June 8, 2009
And by playing more often
he’s going to have better totals. I don’t think that’s shortsighted or intentionally difficult.
drewishdrewid - June 8, 2009
And better totals do not imply better play...
The conclusion you seemed to be implying was that Soriano is playing better this year, when in fact he is quite obviously playing worse. Therein lies the shortsightedness/difficulty.
If you realize that he’s playing substantially worse but just has simply been healthier, then fine. Otherwise, looking count totals from 2/3 of a season and comparing them to full-season projections of count totals from 1/3 of a season is a pretty poor way of measuring better performance.
But if you want to convince yourself into thinking he’s playing better right now than last year in spite of being only a league average hitter and striking out at a career high rate, go right ahead.
SouthernCub - June 9, 2009
and again
he’s going to drive more runs across the plate this year than last. I don’t see how that’s bad. It doesn’t matter if it comes from more play or better play, more runs = better.
drewishdrewid - June 9, 2009
You are continuing to miss the point...
Soriano may individually produce more runs this year than last year. But he’s doing so only because he missed 44 more games last year. In those 44 games last year, his replacements produced runs as well – a fact that you are overlooking. And when you combine Soriano’s 2008 with the 2008 from his replacements, it results in the same runs, more hits, more RBI, more BB, and fewer K. In other words, it’s MUCH better than the production that Soriano is providing this year.
Your mistake is that you’re holding Soriano’s performances in isolation ignoring the opportunity cost. By getting 154 games of league average play (based on the projections), Soriano is hurting the team relative to the performance of last year’s LF.
So no – Soriano has not played better. He’s just played more often (and worse).
SouthernCub - June 9, 2009
holy cow....
DartmouthCubsFan - June 9, 2009
For illustrative purposes...
Soriano’s replacements (DeRosa, Johnson, Hoffpauir, Ward, Pie, and Patterson) had the following stats in LF last year:
206 AB, 37 R, 52 H, 31 RBI, 27 BB, 53 K, .252/.339/.408
That’s below-average production, agreed? Now add that to Soriano’s 2008 and you get:
659, 113 R, 179 H, 106 RBI, 70 BB, 156 K, .272/.342/.493
Compare that to what Soriano is on pace to get this year. He’s on pace to play the exact same number of games as the group above). He’s on pace to get fewer runs, fewer hits, fewer RBI, fewer BB and more strikeouts, and have lower AVG, OBP, and SLG.
In other words, we’re getting less production this year from LF than last year, even though Soriano only played 2/3 of last season.
SouthernCub - June 9, 2009
Slight correction: same runs scored.
Soriano is on pace to score 114 runs. But the rest holds: lower production everywhere else and more Ks.
Conclusion: we’re getting less from LF than we did last year.
That’s why it’s silly to compare a full season’s pace to 2/3 of a season’s totals.
SouthernCub - June 9, 2009
i solute
your patience
DartmouthCubsFan - June 9, 2009
Thanks!
I can’t believe it’s taking this many posts to illustrate such an obvious point.
SouthernCub - June 9, 2009
I didn't watch the entire game, so I ask:
Soriano’s knee still looks iffy, right? His running looked stunted and the victory-leap was a small one, per his request. What do you make of that?
chilango2 - June 8, 2009
Marmol better with MORE WORK????
FACT FAIL
Do I really have to post the numbers again????
Marmol’s BB Rate consistently goes up the less days rest he has
Seriously Al, I’ve shown you this directly on multiple posts
DartmouthCubsFan - June 7, 2009
the numbers....
Marmol Career BB’s/9 as a reliever, based on usage patterns
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=marmoca01&year=Career&t=p
0 Days, GR = 6.19 BB/9 (52 1/3 innings)
1 Days, GR = 5.13 BB/9 (73 2/3 innings)
2 Days, GR = 4.61 BB/9 (27 2/3 innings)
3 Days, GR = 3.26 BB/9 (19 1/3 innings)
Marmol has NEVER been better with more work, this is a misguided perception. His command has always suffered wildly the more often he’s been used, which is why its ASININE to use him 8 times in 11 days
DartmouthCubsFan - June 7, 2009
I was just about to ask for a link to this
… glad I read down the rest of the comments first…
I remembered seeing these before and that they were fairly convincing. Thanks for reposting.
CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) - June 8, 2009
Sorry, I knew I had seen your numbers...
… had no time to look it up. I had it backwards, you’re right, he needs more rest.
You could have been nicer with your post.
Al Yellon - June 8, 2009
apologize for not being nicer
i’m letting my frustrations with the situation boil over into the posts. I’m so frustrated seeing what Marmol has become because of this abuse, i’m letting it “bleed” into my posts
my apologies
DartmouthCubsFan - June 8, 2009
But are walks the be all, end all here?
Using the data from your link also reveals the following:
(Note that I bolded a discrepancy where I got a lower number for BB/9 on 0 days rest)
0 Days = 5.85 BB/9, 4.47 hits/9, 1.146 WHIP, 12.55 K/9, 1.89 ERA
1 Day_ = 5.13 BB/9, 4.76 hits/9, 1.100 WHIP, 10.75 K/9, 2.32 ERA
2 Days = 4.61 BB/9, 6.59 hits/9, 1.244 WHIP, 12.18 K/9, 2.30 ERA
3 Days = 3.26 BB/9, 5.59 hits/9, 0.983 WHIP, 13.97 K/9, 4.66 ERA
As you point out his BB/9 innings do go down with more rest, but his hits allowed go up. So when you look at WHIP, the pattern just isn’t so clear anymore. Their really isn’t a clear pattern for K’s either.
However, his ERA seems to go UP fairly dramatically as he gets more rest — people will argue about how meaningful ERA is as a gauge of performance, but I suggest it’s those earned runs that stick in the minds of fans and I’m sure have given rise to the feeling that many people have expressed that Carlos gets rusty when not used… I’m curious to hear what others make of these patterns?
However, I will add that even if the stats clearly showed that Marmol pitched WAY better on less rest (which they don’t) I would still think Lou was over-using him lately and that the over-use will eventually lead to him breaking down if it continues…
CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) - June 8, 2009
the discrepancy comes
from you not taking into account yesterday’s outing, i had included it in the data, which has now been updated on baseball-reference’s site
the K’s go UP (generally), the BB’s go DOWN and the K/BB shows clear ascension
why the ERA’s go up is likely a bit luck related if you look at the babip data
there are three things a pitcher can control on the mound, BB’s and K’s are the two biggest and there is significant discrepancy in the results when he’s rested and when he’s not
DartmouthCubsFan - June 8, 2009
I gotcha on the discrepancy
I just used the data they had at the site, so kudos for thinking to put in the most recent data.
I agree with a lot of what you’re saying, However I wouldn’t say there’s really much evidence that K’s go up.. to me that looks like a non-relationship… not a simple linear relationship anyway…
I’m admittedly a babe-in-the-woods when it comes to baseball statistics, but I do a fair bit of statistical analysis as part of my job.. so I would just caution against using the word “significant” in a statistical context… certainly with the BB’s you’ve identified a trend but you haven’t shown that it’s statistically signficant..
I’ll also admit that I’m probably nit-picking a bit here, because I think we both agree that Marmol is currently being overused and that that needs to stop. Lou has to start sharing the load amongst the different arms in the pen and now!
CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) - June 8, 2009
You've won me over on this, too.
Would it be oversimplifying to say that Lou just needs to alternate Guzman and Marmol’s respective appearances going forward? Maybe throw in Ascanio for good measure?
I’m already getting concerned that Lou is starting to overuse Guzman. He’s appeared in the last FIVE consecutive games, and I wonder whether it would be six if not for the 6/4 rainout in Atlanta.
daver - June 8, 2009
that would work
or in general just avoid using Marmol at all costs in these situations:
1) 3 days consecutive work
2) 4 or more run difference in score, no matter how long its been since Carlos worked
if he followed those two principles we’d have no issue
DartmouthCubsFan - June 8, 2009
FWIW
I would definitely endorse that strategy!
CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) - June 8, 2009
I knew Piniella would find the WMD eventually..
.. it just took getting into a 13 inning to do it… :)
Let the kid pitch now and then, Lou!
(explanation of “WMD” here: http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2009/6/6/900776/overflow-thread-2-cubs-vs-reds#16652093)
CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) - June 8, 2009
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Bleed Cubbie Blue to post a comment.