Bleed Cubbie Blue

Al,

I agree about Hill but without his contribution my grade would be an F. Sad.

leothelip - June 8, 2009 reply

It is still way too generous

I appreciate the job the back up catcher is doing, but that is not enough to raise the catching grade two letters.

gocubsgo22 - June 8, 2009 reply

It is when you factor in

How well the starting pitching is doing. That can be credited, at least in part, to Hill and Soto.

Right.

That’s why I gave a grade as high as I did. Maybe C+ would have been more accurate, but I gave Hill some credit.

I probably would have docked infield a bit more

for defense. Outside of Lee, it’s been horrific (at least it was until Blanco came up)

true

and even when ramirez comes back its strong on the corners but weak up the middle.

Blanco is pretty solid.

Ditto the OF

Same for the OF. Soriano’s HR’s do not make up for his lackadaisical play in LF, his refusal to change his approach from that of a flailing hacker nor his refusal to hustle. Couple that with Bradley’s very slow start and the production from the OF has been below average…at least a D.

The bullpen grade is quite generous too given Marmol’s ineffectiveness, Gregg’s hit and miss start and the wildness of nearly everyone else. Guzman has been good, but not good enough to erase the failings of the others. Comparing their numbers league wide and seeing them near the bottom, that merits at least a D.

I won’t discuss the infield because it’s really a toss-up between a C and D grade since Ramirez’ injury. With him it’s certainly better. Without him, it’s certainly worse.

krummy12 - June 8, 2009 reply

It should be broken down to each player for catcher

Hill gets an A for doing his job. Soto gets an F. F for Fat

Soto is in shape. Round is a shape.

gocubsgo22 - June 8, 2009 reply

I’m in shape then

leothelip - June 8, 2009 reply

Something HAS to be done about Soto.

This guy should be on a treadmill every morning. I don’t know what the heck they’re doing with him, but bottom line: they need to whip him into shape. Go boot camp on his fat a55, and he’ll be back in 2008 form in 2 or 3 weeks.

Send him to AAA

wake him up. Don’t let him come back until he dumps some weight.

Yahbut

who spells Hill?

Ted Lilly

the current AAA catcher

These replacement guys can hit .215 for no power. Soto needs to find his power.

Big Z...

As the complete player he will do a Buggs Bunny imitation and pitch and catch to himself, in addition to catching the other guys.

DudeVf11 - June 8, 2009 reply

That might be the solution

He’s not going to drop the weight and refocus while having to handle this pitching staff

And make sure he doesn't go home during thr All-Star-break...

Where he’ll fatten up some more on beans and rice.

dude ...

no need to throw beans and rice in there.

The problem is Soto is out of options.

Really?

I will never understand how options work. Sigh.

Allie - June 8, 2009 reply

Thats about right

Damn, damn, damn.

I agree about treadmill or even wasn't Wood on some kind of diet plan last year

that really helped him. Find who ever that was that had that plan, and get Geo on it.

Yeah... Kerry got him on the same diet plan in '07 I believe...

That’s when Soto got into shape, and started mashing the ball in AAA.

Obviously… there’s a correlation between Soto’s shape and his performance.

I realize Soto should take actions into his own hands....

But since he isn’t….. why are the trainers etc not doing something about it.

Hell Ronnie could even advice about Seattle Suttons (SP?) LOL

I can't imagine

that the staff is doing NOTHING. There must be something. Just because they don’t tell us…

Bradley vs. Dunn et al

While I agree with much of the analysis. The Bradley vs. Dunn/Ibanez debate is not entirely fair.

Adam Dunn would have been a disaster in RF at Wrigley, and Ibanez wouldn’t be much better. Additionally, we should include Abreu if we want to be fair.

Sure, Bradley has battled injuries – not too surprising. But it isn’t fair to Jim Hendry to criticize him for Bradley’ weak numbers. Furthermore, it is dangerous to judge big free agent signings after just 54 games.

WGNstatic - June 8, 2009 reply

You may have a point...

With Ibanez (even though i really really wanted him), but with Dunn i disagree with you. The guy has played many many games here, and he would have murdered the ball, like he always does at wrigley, so i think his bat would have made up for his errors in right. I mean in 60 games at Wrigley he has hit 23 Hrs, that is just unreal.

Agreed re: Dunn

The fact that we’re paying Fukudome and Bradley $20-ish million per year is heartbreaking.

D98 - June 8, 2009 reply

Imagin him hitting in 70-80 games a year at Wrigley!

I agree.

Healthy Bradley> Dunn due to significantly better defense making up for his offensive production being a little lower. However, health is the issue. I’d take the big burly slugger over MB just because MB hasn’t been able to stay on the field. Dunn is horrible defensively, but he’s just so good offensively. Career ..382 OBP for a guy with his power is just amazing.

Bradley's injury problems and probable suspensions make up for the defensive lapses of Dunn.

Cub Style - June 8, 2009 reply

Which is what I said.

Bullpen has to be a D or D-

Don’t let yesterday’s results scew the average.

salparadise23 - June 8, 2009 reply

Skew rather

salparadise23 - June 8, 2009 reply

why shouldn't

yesterday count? If you’re going to grade someone on performance for 1/3 of the season, you can’t leave out data you don’t want to.

with all due respect drew

One outing doesn’t make up that fact that he has had a variety of problems the 1/3 of the season. I’m looking at his whole body of work so far this season including yesterday.

No different that I could be president of Soto’s fan club, he is hands down my favorite baseball player. But I can’t let the one good game 2 days ago skew that fact that my boy is struggling this year for a variety of reasons.

I'm not saying yesterday balances out

two months of suckitude. But you have to take it into consideration, just like you should take Soto’s one good game into consideration. For example, it’s proof that he CAN get his bat speed up to snuff.

The bullpen CAN hold on and not give up runs. Gotta factor that in.

I don't think sal was saying discount yesterday

I think the point was that it shouldn’t raise the grade significantly. It’s 1/54th of the grading period.

he said

Don’t let yesterday’s results scew the average.

If I misunderstood, then ok. No worries. But it’s a performance by the pen, and it counts, even if just for a little.

To me, it shows what this bullpen CAN do. It’s not like Heilman coming out one day to pitch to one hitter and everyone saying “WOW! HE’S 100%!” For six or seven innings, this pen held the Reds to one run, and that was on Marmol.

If you let yesterday pull a D up to a C-

that is skewing the average

but that's not why Al says he gives the bullpen a C-.

I realize that. It's sal's speculation.

Just as it was your speculation that sal believed yesterday should be thrown out entirely.

Badger makes a great point there

He’s objectively looking @ both statements.

BTW it does pain me to point out that.

But then that isn't looking @ stats totally either

That is looking @ good ones and hoping that they continue. Not taking into account all the other ones.

Example, I decided that I want ride a bike 10 miles, 3 times a week. I fail at it, 9 out of 10 times. Yes it does me that maybe some day b/c I did it once. Does it mean that eventually I could. Yes, but if you are just grading the 10 times. No, I am not good at that.

Can the bullpen improve yes? I hope it does, but if I’m objectly grading the first 1/3. No it doesn’t.

I am not looking at one result and saying yeah for me.

I’m objectively looking @ the 10 and seeing what I can do different so I can improve so that I don’t make the same mistakes I made 90% of the time.

This will be an interesting month for Dome

He has been so good, but really you can see the slump coming. He is starting to look like bad-Dome from last season. I really hope he can figure it out quick.

So far I would give the Cubs a C overall, because there has been zero offense but tons of great starting pitching. We have found two keepers in Randy Wells and Angel Guzman. I also think that Ascanio could be a something in the bullpen, but I could be wrong.

Kosuke has not looked good at the plate for 2 1/2 weeks now

This team absolutely cannot afford him to go into the tank. It is essential that he be able to hit .280 and be able to provide a decent run production value.

It wouldnt happen but

what about trying to unload fukudome and his contract to someone…play johnson in center and try to use the opened up payroll to complete a deal for either peavy or a hitter……….If indeed hendry’s hands are tied with payroll.

I hope fukudome can hit for the whole year but I still am skeptical and we could probably get rid of him now with his good start.

Trading Fukudome isn't something a team that wants to win this year does

We need his bat and glove. We just have to hope that the bat doesn’t go away.

I understand it wouldnt happen

I just think he might slip like last year.

He probably will

but for the purpose of winning this season, which is still the goal, Dome needs to stay.

Johnson

could probably do just as much as dome, especially if dome struggles a bit…….so why not open up the payroll space to try and help out another weakness on the team.

Not against righties...

The platoon has been working out pretty well.

I'm on your side about Johnson/Dome

If Dome slides like he did last season, except that with Bradley getting hurt all the time we need Johnson or Dome to fill in. Trading Dome costs us some nice OF depth.

+1

agreed

even if dome struggles at the plate later, i’d almost not want to trade him cuz of his skill in the OF. same with RJ

CubsFanInWisconsin - June 8, 2009 reply

Peavy...

For what? Can he hit or play 3rd? Our starting pitching has been excellent.

I'm a believer in you could never have too much pitching

and then maybe wells could go to the pen to give us another good arm there

you can have too much pitching when you have other serious issues to fix and you are trying to make it to october

Its like only working out your legs. You are going to look weird if you don’t spend sometime on the arms and back baby!

Yes.

but we have ramirez out right now……what position would you trade for to get another bat? it would have to be a middle infielder and I don’t know how many bats are available at those positions….

1st base depth

*

I meant who would we get?

Freddy Sanchez.

Put him at third until Ramirez gets back, then put him at second. This was Al’s idea, but I think it’s a great one.

Still, I think the pen is the biggest question mark. Gregg will be OK, IMO, and Guzman is the most positive development of the season.

But with Marmol and Heilman walking SO many guys …

Freddy....

is not happy in Pit – especially after the Nate trade.

Good luck getting Sanchez...

considering that we’re close to budget as is and probably don’t have the prospects to make it happen.

that is the problem....

tough to see us getting someone at this point.

Agreed...

maybe a cheap reliever or a dumpster dive, but that’s about it.

Tell me what you...

think about Russell Branyan? I’ve heard some rumblings that the Mariners will deal.

Damen Jackson - June 8, 2009 reply

That would be interesting

What would they want in return?

Branyan is doing great, but they only have him under control for one year. Would they take Hoffpauir? Or a couple relievers from the minors?

cubzfan - June 8, 2009 reply

I BET Hendry could figure out something that the Pirates would take

But the budget issues are daunting.

Yeah...

… lets give up fielding (at a .290 AVG, .420 OBP, .471SLG and .891OPS), when we are short and hurting in the field…in an effort to play with our pitching, which has been firing on all cylinders in spite of little run support and our best defensive players in and out of the lineup.

That makes sense.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Interesting grades.

B- for the catchers yet a C for the infield? Our starting catcher has been pathetic this year. Hill has been nice, but nowhere near often enough to warrant a B- overall.

kanderber - June 8, 2009 reply

Fontenot/Scales/Miles/Freel/Blanco

have been just as pathetic as Soto.

Um?

Fontenot has been playing out of position and has been a passable 3b. Scales and Blanco have both played fairly well. Neither of those guys are going to be offensive powerhouses, although you can thank Bobby Scales for keeping us in at least two games.

I don’t even know if Freel has had 5 appearances yet. Miles, meh.

Generous grades by Al

Boy Al, I’d have to challenge you on the grading curve applied. Fact is the Chicago Cubs have been a signficant disappointment to this stage. Geovany Soto gets an “F”, period. Alfonso Soriano gets a “D,” Milton Bradley an “F”, Mike Fontenot a “D.” That’s 1/2 of the lineup care right there. The bullpen has also been tragic, and the prognosis for that pen with the dog days of summer right around the corner is not good at all.

Tragic

It’s never tragic when everyone leaves the ballpark alive

OT I realize

Worf is that really you or has someone gotton your password and periodically posts things like this? :)

I'm a very complex Klingon

Yes, I have noticed that.

I have seen you in Star Trek: The Next Generation and Deep Space 9.

Tragedy

When the feelings gone and you cant go on
Its tragedy
When the morning cries and you dont know why
Its hard to bear
With no-one to love you youre
Goin nowhere
Tragedy

-1 for quoting the BeeGees

Disagree.

The Bee Gees are awesome. They got a bad rap along with all of disco, but they wrote some incredible songs and have influenced modern music, specifically hip hop (everyone from Wyclef to Atmosphere has sampled them) more than anybody recognizes.

You say that...

as if inspiring hip hop is a mark in their favor… :-p

I kid, I kid. (Kind of. Like every surburban white guy, I like OutKast, Tupac, and the like, but I can’t say I find much appealing about hip-hop/rap generally.) :)

In truth I don’t mind the BeeGees THAT much. They had hell-of falsettos. But if I had to choose, I’ll choose getting the Led out over them any day. Speaking of which, where’s my Zune… :)

Ergh...

Suburban. Not “surburban”…I’m a stupid, stupid moron. :)

Oh, I was just funnin' ya

But you state a good case

I actually have to agree with you for the most part. Can't beleive it.

I dont give Soriano a D.....

While yes he has been slumping, i think he has had a few spotty abs where he is showing that he could lay off the crap pitches if he wanted too. I am not sold yet, but i see a little improvement.

Soriano should always rank a grade of A or B -- hence the problem

He is being paid $136 million over 8 years to serve as a franchise player and deliver significant production. And he has utterly failed in that mission since becoming a member of the Cub, to include most notably complete awfulness during the playoffs.

It is a BIG problem that Soriano is graded so poorly right now. A real BIG problem given that the other true franchise player in the lineup is out for several months with an injury.

Putting his poor defensive efforts and his slump aside...

The guy can’t even score from second base. He gets a stop sign everytime he rounds 3rd, because he runs like crap.

That brings up another Grade

Team speed D-. We can’t manufacture runs very well. That’s one of the reasons the Cards hang in there. They have the boppers and can plate people without a hit. We rarely do that.

I must agree on team speed

Sori has 6 steals and he is one of the leaders… what is that saying?

willie mays hayes' gloves - June 8, 2009 reply

It says this team is not built around speed. Speed is like a beautiful girlfriend - it great to

have one, but a nice-looking one works pretty good too. Very few teams in MLB are built around team speed. What you really want are intelligent baserunners. A guy doesn’t have to be lightning fast to be a good baserunner.

We should have kept Gathright!

Nothing is more beautiful than jumping a car.

+1

However, and in the words of the Tenacious D, I would give them an F+. Click.

Soriano's legs are shot

He doesn’t run well on the basepads or in left field anymore. Which is highly distressing because your legs are very key to hitting. The Soriano contract surely ranks as one of the worst in the game of baseball. And it is only going to get worse and time marches on. And the really sad thing is that the majority of Cub fans cringed when this signing first happened. I know of very few Cub fans who were legitimately excited about signing Soriano. Fact is if Hendry could have a “do over” he wouldn’t even offer Soriano a $36 million contract, let alone a friggin $136 million contract. Ugh.

Hind sight is 20-20

So we should regret signing the guy

Who got us in the playoffs by himself in 2007, and was a major part of us making it in 2008. I’m willing to bet Soriano will carry the team if they make the playoffs again in 2009.

This.

freakin rec'd.

Disagree about the hitting...

You keep saying that the leg problems will affect Soriano’s hitting, but the reality is that they haven’t. He’s been the same streak hitter throughout his time as a Cub, and the power hasn’t gone anywhere despite the leg problems.

The reality is that so much of Soriano’s power comes from his hands/wrists. He flicks the bat through the zone and generates tremendous power. So despite the hamstring, calf, and knee problems, the power has remained.

As for the contract, it was overpaying of course. But that’s the luxury a big market team has. The leg injuries were a surprise. He’d never had health problems before, he trains religiously to stay in great shape. He was just unlucky. And so a good part of his value (the speed on the basepaths) was sapped AFTER the fact.

If the team could have foreseen the leg injuries, they probably wouldn’t have signed him. But it’s hard to see into the future.

Completely agree

As I said before, Soriano is a below-average major league hitter with freakish hand strength. That alone is the reason why he does what he does and why he’s so streaky. His plate discipline is poor. His plate coverage is only a tick better than average because he stands on top of it and swings a telephone pole. His hitting IQ is well below average as he has shown a complete inability to understand counts and game situations and adjust his approach accordingly.

His legs don’t affect his hitting as much as it would for some others. On top of it, he doesn’t run because the Cubs don’t make him run. He jogs around and the Cubs cater to him. That is why he doesn’t run. By now, every player has some ailment affecting their performance. As long as the Cubs continue to baby him, he will continue to refuse to hustle. It’s that simple.

krummy12 - June 8, 2009 reply

Bullshit...

After losing out on Beltran and Furcal, Cubs fans were pissed that Hendry couldn’t get any big names to sign here and/or kept getting outbid. He finally goes out and gets the biggest name on the market at the time, filling a glaring weakness for us at the time, and people cringed? Back to back playoff appearances anyone? Please.

+12

Hold on a sec...

That offseason who should the Cubs have signed – Carlos Lee or Soriano?

This is not a retrospect or anything like that. Based on pure need who should they have signed? I definitely think it should have been Carlos Lee. He fit in the lineup better and was more of what we needed than Soriano.

Soriano

Lee is a way worse left fielder, can’t run the bases, and right now I would argue his contract is just as hated as Soriano’s.

Technically, the Cubs ALSO needed a leadoff man...

We had Lee and Ramirez in the middle of the order, but had nobody at the top of the order.

We also had Murton, Jones, and Floyd as options in the middle of the order. And we had a bunch of LF.

In hindsight, Lee makes more sense (as we now have Fukudome and Theriot who could lead off), but at the time, with plenty of LF and no leadoff man, Soriano probably made more sense.

Additional note - please look at this from Dec 2006 perspective...

not now.

Had we known that Jones would lose all power, that Murton would never develop power, and that Floyd’s legs would give out for good, then Lee might have made some sense.

But we had tons of corner OF and nobody to bat leadoff or play CF. The Cubs hoped Soriano could do both. Turns out, he could do only one.

We did have a CF...

and a leadoff guy. Juan Pierre. We chose not to resign him.

what a good move that was too

dude was a bench player until Manny was suspended

plus he has a leaf for an arm

And I'd argue that that was a good decision...

as Pierre signed for $10 million per year to be a below-average hitter.

Below average hitter?

Did he or did he not lead the league in hit in 2006? Seriously. Say what you want about the guy, but a lead off guy should get on base. Soriano either Ks or HRs that is if that streak of Abs is a hot one or not. Soriano is too streaky to be a leadoff guy. (i am not saying bat him else where). I am saying that winter was a bad one, if we would have retained him and signed Lee, this team would be totally different, and to me more offensively productive.

and after 2006???????

Below average hitter...

his OBP was .330. He had an OPS+ of 82 as a Cub, and it got WORSE the last two years.

He led the league in hits in 2006, but he ALSO led the league in outs.

Soriano had a better OPS the last two years than Pierre, despite the streakiness.

And you’re still using hindsight logic here rather than at-the-time logic.

I am not comparing Juan Pierre...

to Soriano. Compare Lee and Soriano. Then tell me i am wrong.

I am telling you that we did not need a leadoff hitter, you are saying we did.

Bottom line Carlos Lee was the better option, not soriano.

no he wasnt. We didn't need a middle of the order guy

We needed the 20-20 guy we signed. Just didn’t pan out that way

Really?

Wow…ok. You are right. the 12 runs we have scored in the playoff in 6 games is a good indication that we did not need power in the lineup.

Again - hindsight logic...

you’re ignoring where we were in December of 2006 and looking at the results of 2007 and 2008 instead.

You are right...

my bad. We had Derrek Lee coming off a wrist injury expecting him to hit 30 HRs again.

My bad.

Lee OPSed .913 in 2007...

so I’d say he was just fine in the middle of the order.

Same for Ramirez.

you are right...

most teams number 3 hitter knock in 82 people a season.

Right, because RBI are a good measure...

again, you illustrate your inability to understand offensive value.

ooookkkk...

so what does a 3 hitter do?

Should lead the team in OPS...

the RBI depend on people being on base in front of him.

Lee was either first or second for the Cubs in OPS in 2007.

Ok fine...

i will agree with that. But realisitcally isnt a 3 hitter in the spot to drive in the most runs?

In theory.

He’s in that spot because he does have opportunities for more RBI’s but also because that 3 spot in the order will roll around more times than say the 6th spot

Only if there are people on base...

If runners aren’t on base (as is the case when your #2 hitter doesn’t get on and your leadoff man scores on his own so often), you aren’t going to get the chances.

Lee was a fantastic hitter in 2007, but his RBI opportunities were limited.

Similarly in 2005 (though more pronounced), when he was more productive in RBI chances than Andruw Jones or Albert Pujols but had so few RBI chances.

Carlos Lee has never impressed me

with his impact on a team. I found it interesting that the Astros played their best baseball when he was hurt last year.

You are out of control

You are bouncing around from issue to issue trying to support your arguement.

How is the offensive power outage in the playoffs have ANYTHING to do with the Soriano/Lee signing?

Say we sign lee and he goes 2-8, with 2 K’s and a RBI, Doubt that wins the NLDS

Really?

Soriano is so consist that we know he is going to be clutch in the playoffs right?

Talk to yankee fans about that.

Huh?

You need to take a debate class

Why?

So you can follow your argument

tough to do when two...

guys keep changing my view and not reading what i say.

I guess I'm just having a difficult time understanding you

I'm saying we DID need a leadoff hitter...

because we didn’t have Juan Pierre. He was a free agent. He signed for $10 million per year to be a terrible hitter for LA.

And I DID compare Lee and Soriano from the beginning. We didn’t need Lee. We needed Soriano.

Again, you are failing to consider the circumstances. We had a one-year need in CF until Pie was ready. We had a need at leadoff man because Pierre was going to be overvalued and overpaid. We didn’t need a middle-of-the-order guy because we had LOTS of those.

Pie wasnt ready...

He never was, never will be.

if all of that was true about Pierre why did we trade so much to get him?

Again - hindsight.

Pie was SUPPOSED to be ready by 2008. He didn’t pan out.

Why did the team overpay for Pierre for 2006? Because Hendry overvalued Pierre’s ability and undervalued our pitching prospects.

and a better OBP than Pierre, which is what I meant

So you are telling me...

that for $136 million your leadoff hitter does everything a leadoff hitter does?

Nope...

I’m saying he does everything a leadoff hitter does BETTER THAN PIERRE, who is terrible.

Juan Pierre sucks

Not this year

He sucked for us though.

madcow256 - June 8, 2009 reply

Juan Pierre sucks

Just wait for him to bat more. He isn’t good at baseball.

honestly - how so?

n/t

One issue with Pierre

is his offense grades as a centerfielder but he can no longer play center field adequately which is why the Dodgers moved him to left field.

The Dodgers moved him to LF

because Manny is out.

Cubs and Hawks fan - June 8, 2009 reply

The Dodgers moved Pierre to LF

at the beginning of last season, before Manny was traded to the Dodgers.

OPS+ of about 80 for the previous 4 years...

OBP of .331 or below for each of those seasons as well.

Even if you add in the stolen bases (and subtract out the caught stealings), that’s a well-below average offensive player.

I'm only going to do this once

His career OPS+ is 85. His career high is 107. He has zero power, no arm in the outfield, and led the league in caught stealing 5 times while only leading the league in steal twice.

He is mediocre at stealing bases, mediocre at getting on base, can’t hit for any power, can’t give an value on defense, and a one month hot streak won’t change that.

My biggest complaint:

Juan Pierre has what I consider to be the absolute WORST arm in all of MLB OFs. It is soooooooo bad.

a detailed drawing of JP's arm

LOL +1

You know,

I was wondering what his arm looked like. Now I know!

He must be Canadian...

vonde6 - June 8, 2009 reply

Sure, maybe he has led the league in CS

5 times. He also takes a lot of chances.

Do some research and see how many times Rickey Henderson led the league in CS. I know he’s the career leader in that category.

Cubs and Hawks fan - June 8, 2009 reply

5 times in his 24 years

81% for his career, not to mention Rickey Henderson is one of the best baseball players EVER.

Pierre is 75%. JUAN PIERRE ISNT GOOD AT BASEBALL.

He might not be good at baseball

But 75% SB rate is pretty good . . .

madcow256 - June 8, 2009 reply

You compared Juan Pierre to Ricky Henderson

One of the 10 greatest baseball players ever. In his standard- Pierre’s 75% is crap.

You take your Juan PIerre, I’ll take Soriano and a two NL Central titles.

We had one...

Remember we traded the farm away for a one year usage out of Juan Pierre? If we would have retained him and signed Carlos Lee our offensive production would have been way different than it is now.

I disagree with the hindsight, i think Lee made sense then and now.

Seriously, arguing that we should have kept Juan Pierre?

That’s terrible. The guy had a lower OBP than Soriano in 2007/2008, and got $10 million per year to have an OPS+ of around 75 in those years.

you keep changing my arguement...

This is not between JP and Soriano. It is Soriano and Lee.

You brought up Pierre, so I compared them...

Again – the Cubs didn’t need a middle of the order bat at the time. They had Murton/Floyd/Jones as options for the 5th and 6th spots, which should have been plenty. For similar reasons, they didn’t need a LF.

Also, they didn’t need a long-term guy in CF, because Pie was in AAA and a year away. So Pierre was out of the question (and a good thing too, as he was terrible in 2006-2008).

In HINDSIGHT, things MIGHT have been better with Lee rather than Soriano. MIGHT. But AT THE TIME, Soriano made more sense.

Again...

you are forgetting DLee was coming off a wrist injury. The power was limited.

I am confused has to how Pierre had bad years in 2007-2008. He stole 100 bases over that time, batted about .285, 70 RBIs and over 300 hits….while striking out 60 times. Check your facts man. That to me is what a leadoff hitter does.

Lee OPSed 913 in 2007...

And the problem you have is that you completely fail to understand offensive value. A leadoff hitter’s job is to GET ON BASE.

Pierre had an OBP of .330 and below in 2007 and 2008. Pierre was below average at getting on base. And he compounded that problem with being really bad at getting extra base hits.

EXTRA BASE HITS???

Come on that is what stealing is for.

I am out of this conversation. You change my wording around to fit your arguement. I am out.

You just don't understand offensive value...

Pierre is below average at the job of getting on base, which is the primary role of a leadoff man. This is incredibly simple to understand, yet you don’t get it.

I haven’t changed your wording – you just don’t get it. And since you don’t get it, I agree that it’s pointless to continue.

So how is Soriano better...

Sorianos numbers for you…

OBP, 2007- .337, 2008 – .344, 2009 .305.

How is that SOOOO much better?

I didn't say SO much better...

I said he was better at it. And when you add the fact that he provides power, the difference is HUGE.

Neither is an ideal leadoff man. They both struggle to get on base at a sufficient rate. But Soriano was better at it from 2006-2008 than Pierre.

Sounds good!

I will agree to disagree!

We needed a leadoff man who could play center field

The center field thing didn’t work, but the leadoff thing did.

Thanks

you have no idea

what Hendry would do. Great Caesar’s Ghost!

You wouldn't know

a fact if one came up and bit you in the ass.

sue369 - June 8, 2009 reply

Wow, Sue ...

Hope I"m not rubbing off on you … :)

Not at all NB.

My dislike of BM goes back several years.

sue369 - June 8, 2009 reply

In fact, due to an off season conditioning program, his legs are better than they have been in years...

Evidenced by earlier this year when he was getting steals, and running very well. I do not know of a lot of fans who cringed at this signing. Rather, I know many who were excited.

Once again assclown, just because you say something is, doesn’t make it so.

Jimmyeatworld - June 8, 2009 reply

+1

Notre Dame Cubbie - June 8, 2009 reply

I think that's a bit harsh

Soto gets an F, I agree. Bradley gets an I for incomplete. Soriano deserves better than a D, I’d go C+. He was carrying the team for a while back in April. Fontenot gets a C-: He’s been asked to do too much, but he’s done about as well as anyone could expect at 3B, and his line vs. righties (.254/.344/.418) isn’t terrible, and coming into the season, we really only expected him to hit righties.

I agree mostly

with your grades. You are by nature, more optimistic than I am, I may have given lower grades on the bullpen and management.

I know we are all waiting for our hitters to get to their normal or average numbers, but with a third of the season gone, we can’t wait too much longer. Lee looks better, and The Riot is surprising us with his power. Hopefully Dome’s little slump will right itself and Soto will become somewhat of a force that he was last year. IMO, you can’t count on Rami being the savior when he comes back. His timing will be off and that shoulder may hinder him or cause him to tweak his swing a bit. I know the consensus is to hang in there until he returns, but he may not get on track until early/mid August. The big plus is having him back at the hot corner, and our infield gets back to normal.

As far as Harden is concerned, if Wells continues to excel, he can have his spot in the rotation. It’s realistic that Wells will not continue the entire season as he has started, but I love this kid. He knows how to pitch. I feel bad the rest of the team has let him down.

All in all, we are positioned well enough to make a run, if the offense gets going. I hope your recap of the second third of the season is brighter.

This comes close to what I think.

Though I would never take Harden out of the rotation. Other than that, this sounds about right to my ear. :)

Maybe put Wells in the pen and dump Heilman?

I'd keep Wells in the rotation while he continues to succeed, and put Harden in that bullpen

granted this is just me, and I haven’t ran it past harden either

I think I know what his answer would be! ;-)

For my money, I would try and keep Wells in the rotation, since he is the hot hand right now. It figures that we have a plethora of good-great SP and the infield is in such a mess.

One thing that might be just me, but Lou really seems gun shy this year. I mean, Fonty is NOT a 3B and is playing as well as can be expected. Why not put Fox out there? At least get his hot (at the time) bat in the lineup. I mean, during that stretch, we couldn’t buy a run, and you’re worried about an error here and there? If Jake helps us put a few runs on the board, I say go for it.

Also, Lou is going to absolutely KILL Marmol. He gets him up in blowouts, etc. Sometimes you have to trust your other guys a little bit, They aren’t going to right their ships sitting on the bench. Lou is getting like Dusty, trotting out the same ol’ same ’ol guys. If you want your bench guys to help you down the stretch, they better get some QUALITY playing time now.

I'm actually...

Not one of the haters on Heilman (or at least I don’t think he’s been as bad as some do; though a 1.60 WHIP is pretty atrocious). But if we need room in the pen, I don’t think Heilman is where you start, particularly since we have guys we don’t even use.

It will be tough once Harden comes back. Either move Wells into the pen for long relief, or maybe better is move him back to AAA so that he can continue starting.

That said: Is Marshall still in the rotation? Or have they moved him out to long relief? If so, then the rotation of Demp-Z-Lilly-Harden-Wells actually works, right? And then if Wells comes back down to earth, go back to Marshall…

Lou has stated

that Marshall is going to the pen when Harden returns.

Ah...

Ok. Thanks Drew.

I actually prefer that I think, though I’m sure Marshall was disappointed, and he’s done a good enough job on most teams to earn a rotation spot.

Makes sense... when you look at Wells dominant starts.

Marshall suddenly becomes more valuable in the pen.

next year

Harden will likely be gone, and Marshall will have his spot back, I bet.

I'd take that bet

There are a few pitchers that I think get a shot for that spot. Samardzija is one – whether he deserves to be or not.

I have to believe

that having been given the #5 this year tilts thing too much in Marshall’s favor. Especially if Shark can’t come up with a third pitch.

If that were true

Wouldn’t being the “backup closer” in 2008 made Marmol the closer in 2009?

I think Marshall gets a shot if he’s still with the Cubs, but I don’t believe he gets the job handed to him.

Then, of course, there’s that rampant Peavy speculation . . . plus, we don’t know who will be available. All in all, way too early to call the 2010 rotation with much certainty.

no

because Marmol is more valuable where he is.

Marshal is more valuable OUT of the pen than in it. The difference is that Wells is so good right now, and the pen needs stability.

Maybe

And the Cubs could do a lot worse than Marshall in the rotation.

Still, I’m guessing there’s a battle for it.

Marshall's value depends on the rest of the staff...

Obviously a starter is more valuable than a reliever holding all else out of the equation.

But if we have five (or more) other starters who are similarly as good as Marshall and still don’t have a guy to get out tough lefties (or have a lack of reliable arms in the pen), then Marshall may be more valuable in the pen again.

A lot will depend on how good Wells and Samardzija are by next spring. If they’re ready, we may very well see Marshall in the bullpen again.

If I had to guess, though, I’d say Marshall is in the rotation.

Given that

Marshall has shown he’s capable of being a competent starter and Samardzija has not yet shown he’s capable of consistently competent reliever, I certainly hope that the position is Marshall’s to lose and not Jeffs.

madcow256 - June 8, 2009 reply

We lost to the Dodgers because....

Joe Torre, Don Mattingly, Rick Honeycutt, Mariano Duncan, and Larry Bowa prepared their team to beat us. And it’s really dumbfounding that Jim and Lou based our entire off-season on the premise that we lost because we didn’t have enough LH bats. We won 97 games with the bats we had, for crying out loud.

We got out-coached, and out-played. Much like what is happening these days.

Exactly.

The team was ill-prepared for a playoff series. They played the last week of the season last year — against teams desperate for a playoff spot — like it was spring training. And the pitching staff the last day was atrocious, when beating the Brewers could have given the Cubs the Mets as their first-round opponent.

Lou screwed that up. Bigtime.

I personally think...

It all goes back to the Sunday game against the brewers. We should have played that to win, and we would have drawn the Mets instead of the Dodgers. If i remember correctly.

Yep. That's what Al was referring to.

There was no guarantee of the Mets...

… since they lost that day. But if the Cubs had defeated the Brewers, the Mets and Brewers would have tied, forcing a playoff for the wild card.

Given the way the Mets have played in September the last few years,

I’m not sure they could have won a single-game playoff last year, even if the game was in Shea. Does anyone know what magic number the Mets had in 2007, before they collapsed and the Phillies won the NL East?

As I recall, they were up by

something like 7 games with 17 games to go.

If my calculations are right,

The Mets had a magic number of 11 with 17 games to go in 2007.

this

I agree with.

The fact that Jim and Lou couldn't look in the mirror and recognize that...

is another problem.

On that I disagree.

The Cubs beat themselves in the playoffs last year. The Cubs played so poorly that I don’t think it would have mattered who their opponent was.

We're saying that they played so poorly, because they were ill-prepared by their manager.

Also, they could not field ground balls all of a sudden.

That was really horrific play – it wasn’t just the bats going silent – it was a systemic collapse.

D98 - June 8, 2009 reply

I put that squarely on the players.

I think coaches and managers are blamed way to much when players play poorly. The players are the ones making millions of dollars.

Millions of dollars do not matter.

A competent infielder making the league minimum should have made those plays. And while we’re at it, check Lou Piniella’s salary. I’m pretty sure he’s not hourly.

Goodie1969 - June 8, 2009 reply

Exactly the managers are getting a piece of the at pie also

Madison Cub Fan - June 9, 2009 reply

Lou couldn't have prepared them

to NOT make all those errors in Game 2.

I will never forget...

Dempsters face in that game he pitched. He looked soo soo scared. We were not prepared.

How can you say they weren't prepared?

Most of the same team had been around for the playoffs in 2007. I think they knew the drill.

I think a lack of lefty bats had something to do with it. But I think the biggest factor was this:

Pressure. The pressure of breaking a 100-year-old drought. The heavy cloud that seems to hang over Wrigley Field. The weight of all the fans’ expectations.

I think that’s the real reason they folded in the playoffs last year. It had nothing to do with a lack of preparation.

When the Dodgers hit that grand slam in Game 1, the game was hardly out of reach — only a two-run deficit. But that sucked all the oxygen out of that ballpark, and that was that.

Cant you...

prepare yourself for pressure?

Not sure if you can

prepare for pressure like that.

You kinda do...

though when you sign with the Cubs. it is not like the 100 year thing game about during the 60th game of the season. You know what you are playing for year in and year out. With the Cubs you know the fans want it more, and it is going to be a roller coast of emotion.

True, but if you know all that,

then you shouldn’t need any “preparation” at all.

Ok fair enough...

i guess i came to that conclusion because they beat us in every aspect of the game.

me too

But some people no matter how badly Cubs get beat are going to have that opinion that it wasn’t there fault.

Oh, it certainly was the Cubs' fault

With some help from the Dodgers. And a big hand to simply being a Cub.

rec'd on sackmans comment.

I agree about the play offs last year.

I give Adam Dunn an "A" thus far.

Oh, wait, wrong team.

Milton Bradley? “F” for fluke, f***-up, and flushing our money down the toilet.

LOL!

Honestly if the biggest knock on Dunn was his fielding and his Ks, i can handle that if he is hitting 40-50 HRs a season for us. Especially protecting Ramirez. Lets face it, Dunn fit this team better. (Not to mention so did Carlos Lee but we chose Soriano instead)

I've made this point before ...

But, apparently, Lee was only willing to play in Texas.

There would be people on here whose heads would explode

watching Dunn trying to play right field.

I'm having enough trouble with our current $40 million outfield.

Do you know what $40 Million Dollars annually could have bought this team for an outfield?

Instead, we have Soriano, Fukudome, and Bradley – three very flawed players.

D98 - June 8, 2009 reply

the biggest problem with the Soriano signing

isn’t that he only bats leadoff. It’s that he can only play left. The Cubs clearly thought he could play center, because that’s where he first played in 2007.

If Soriano could play center, or even right, the Cubs could have done a lot of different things with free-agent signings in the past two years. Dunn and Ibanez would have been viable options.

Agreed...

the Cubs thought they had a stopgap in CF until Pie was ready. Unfortunately, Pie didn’t pan out. The stopgap in CF turned out to not be as big a problem, as we made the playoffs anyway with Jones in CF.

good point

The 2007 roster construction also shows how the Cubs were thrown by Sori’s need to play left. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have had D-Ward, Floyd, Jones and Murton on the roster (especially when they weren’t counting on Jones to play center).

The Soriano signing, I think, will look worse and worse over time. Sigh.

He can kind of play left...

Cubs and Hawks fan - June 8, 2009 reply

he plays left field

just fine.

Food for thought

Dunn will drive in 100+ runs a year. What will our RF’s drive in this year? 75-80? Will Dunn cost his team more than 25-30 runs by being in RF?

Doubtful.

It blows my mind how much people put into fielding for outfielders. it is what it is. At some point Dunn’s offensive power would far out weigh the occasional errors.

They are called outfielders,

not outhitters.

Fielding is extremely important. You can’t outhit poor fielding for an entire season

We'll never know, will we?

I say Dunn would have done so. Got any numbers to back up your claim?

I meant that comment from a team stand point

Well...

Dunn’s UZR/UZR150 last year was -10.4/-71.4 (!) in RF last year. That’s ridiculously bad. (RF is his worst OF position, btw.)

His Runs Above Replacement (RAR) was 13.1 (his Wins Above Replacement was only 1.3).

In looking at all of his numbers (see here), what I see is that at best the negative impact of his fielding isn’t quite large enough to totally eliminate all of his offensive value over a replacement player. But it’s pretty close. If that’s the case, why in hell pay a lot of money for what you could pay someone very little to do (or more aptly, why sacrifice the opportunity cost of signing someone who both hits and fields?)

Granted there is some nuance to the numbers so it’s not quite cut and dry, and his offensive productive could theoretically increase based on park factors in Wrigley. But I still don’t think it would be enough to justify his playing RF for us (As much fun as watching his gargantuan HRs would have been).

thanks for doing my homework lol

i wish i was more of a stats guy

well I wish I was more of a stats gal

I’m slowly starting to learn more it. I swear the as I’m starting to learn it the more I realize how much more there is out to there to make the game more interesting at least in bits and pieces

Yoyu know what?

If someone carries a big stick, they find a place for them to play. Obviously, Dunn can only play 1b and outfield. He is still in MLB because he hits. How many Gold Glove OF’s have the Cubs had over the years?

Dawson's the only one.

Oh... and Bob Dernier

I wasn't arguing we need gold glovers,

Just an outfield with Dunn and Soriano on the corners day in and day out makes me, fukudome, and reed’s johnson shudder

Sure, he won't get to the same amount of balls that Dome or Bradley can get to

but he plays everyday, he will give you major pop in the middle of the order and will allow better AB’s by the guy in front of him in the order. His pluses outweigh his minuses IMO.Over the last 5+ years he has missed only 25 games, and who knows how many those were just to give him a break. Bradley will miss that many this season alone.

True.

But then these boards would be littered with talk of the all or nothing kinda hitter he is.

We’d bitch about strike outs. Cause we LOVE to focus on the negatives.

Dunn's no DiMaggio or Mantle

but who is nowadays? It’s a crapshoot either way. You get the RBI’s and HR’s and K’s with subpar fielding. Or, you get slumping, hurt outfielders that show promise a few times a year. Pick your poison.

Touche

Great Point. Guess I just have faith that promise is gonna materialize

You have to

they are Cubs and aren’t going anywhere soon.

The same people who say stuff like this

also get on Soriano for “dogging it” on balls hit to the outfield.

Which is it? Can’t have it both ways.

I find your ideas intriguing and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

Follow me, chilango, and you'll go places.

Yes

Let’s go.

I totally agree with your Bradley position, FWIS.

FWIW, not FWIS

Sorry.

Its not your money.

Orval Overall - June 8, 2009 reply

Don't all fans contribute to payroll in one regard or another?

We buy merchandise, game tickets, etc.

Yes, that is why I say terms like, "we, us, my, our" when refering to the cubs

I help pay for that. However itty bitty my amount may be :)

Any merchandise counts

I do what I can when I visit Chicago, whether it be going to a game or getting some merchandise.

Exactly.

Orval just doesn’t like me, so he likes to be a bit snippy with my comments.

The % ownership

you can legitimately claim from buying a ticket or buying merchandise or buying a beer, is grossly out of proportion to the amount of ownership people routine claim with these “our money” concepts.

Yeah, like with all businesses the Cubs’ money originates from its patrons. That doesn’t mean we as fans have the legitimate right to call it “our” money once we spend it. If the team adds a new $10mm pitcher at the trading deadline, THEY, not us, pay that out of pocket. And if Soriano doesn’t provide a return for the $136 mm contract he got, believe me, the team and its owners feel it a lot worse than you.

Orval Overall - June 8, 2009 reply

Don't forget

that nearly every sports fan ever says we when speaking of the team they root for.

It's something I try to avoid doing...

…but sometimes I give in and do it anyway.

I try to

avoid that too but it’s not always easy.

sue369 - June 8, 2009 reply

No offense, but that puts economics entirely on its head.

I imagine you wouldn’t feel entitled to argue Costco’s payroll/business decisions because you shop there, right?

The exchange of merchandise/right to watch the game being played is what you’re paying for. Not what the private company known as the Chicago Cubs decides to do with its profits from your exchange.

Jeeze, I was just commenting how wasteful the Bradley signing has been. I didn’t know we were turning it into a stupid economics discussion. You win, who gives a shit.

Not trying to give you a hard time...

I just am bemused sometimes by how many times the argument creeps up on BCB about how the Cubs are spending “our money.” It starts to feel like Huey Long’s front porch in here sometimes.

Wasn’t trying to be a jerk about it. :)

(And everything is economics, or so my micro-econ professors used to tell me :-p).

Frankly, I originally typed “our money” as in, “our team’s money”, but I guess it can be interpreted either way. I didn’t really put too much thought into it. No hard feelings.

this was my point.

Orval Overall - June 8, 2009 reply

Yawn.

Maybe not in your glorious

words, but I agree, Bradley signing will go down as the worst move this team has made. All the complaining about Soriano, Bradleys deal stinks

Bottom Line

While we can squabble about Cs or Ds for the catching corp and outfield, the starting pitching has thus far salvaged this season. If not for our starting pitching, this team would be in competition w/ Houston for last place in the division. It cannot be easy to pitch on the road for a team that can’t score 4 runs/ game. Our starters basically know that they have to hold their opponents to 3 runs or fewer. Our starting pitching has bought time for Hendry, Lou, and the rest of the underachievers to get their act together.

A Big +1

Hopefully when the starting pitching starts to struggle

and there will be a time when that happens, we need the offense to step up.

There's the rub

if the offense doesn’t pick it up, there are going to be stretches when the SP is going to shit the bed. We need the hitters to carry this team at times, and so far, they haven’t shown that they can.

My point exactly

This Team is so poorly put together on the offensive side it is not funny. Just hope and pray the starters can keep the run going, becasue who knows when this team starts to hit.

Totally rec'd Slakkr

IMHO this one should be made green

Pitch-perfect

Rec’d.

Also,

Remember that Dempster is going through some really difficult times right now, personally. While he says it hasn’t affected him professionally, I find this hard to believe.

However, I would’ve asked for a leave of absence if I had to deal with what he’s dealing.

really good point

Dempster has been a trooper.

Whats up with Dempster?

have not heard

Newborn with chromosome issue.

Very serious.

Link

N Oakley - June 8, 2009 reply

Thanks

what a tough spot, Hats off to Demp.

I'm having a hard time

envisioning how our lineup improves w/out a trade. Right now, we have 3 guys in our everyday lineup who should be batting 8th. To me, a Cubs’ trade hinges on 1st base, where we have by far the most flexibility, and where there is some need around the league.

Envision Aramis Coming back

Fontenot is no longer exposed, our bench becomes stronger because roll players aren’t playing everyday. The some pressure leaves players who have been pushing to perform in his absence. This will trickle down. Just think of the 14th yesterday. We didn’t do squat until fonzi hit that bomb, and then all of the sudden the bats came awake. The pressure was alleviated. I have a feeling it will be something like that.

I do however think we SHOULD trade from our 1b depth

Disagree...

We need Lee, his defense is too valuable to us as shown this weekend and his hitting is coming around; Hoff is valuable in his bench/PH role right now.

+1

I didn't say trade Lee.

I said trade from our depth

I read your post right.

You’re suggesting trading Jake Fox. Unfortunately, no one wants him.

I'm suggesting allowing teams to take flyers on any of our 1st basemen

Whether it be Lee, Hoff, or Fox.

If a deal presents itself that betters our team, we should obviously do that.

Teams are always allowed to "take flyers" on any player.

.............really?

Taking a flyer just means your looking at a guy.

How can the other team stop you from doing that?

Forgot about Fox...

Apparently so has Lou at times.

He gave him the start 2 days ago.

Lee

doesn’t necessarily need to, or even would be willing to be dealt. We have Hoff and Fox as well. It seems to me to be our most marketable position to deal.

Our bats came to life in the 14th

because Lincoln is a very bad pitcher. Our crappy back of the pen happened to hold out longer than their crappy back of th pen

El Borto - June 8, 2009 reply

exactly

Lincoln is crap.

thank you for encompassing the poor attitude that is ever so present around here

As has been mentioned umpteen times on this board

DLee has a no-trade contract. Accept this and move on.

I too worry that the ARam that returns after the break won’t be the ARam of old, possibly ever (cringe) (reference DLee)

leothelip - June 8, 2009 reply

dude what?

Milk

on keyboard. Nose burns.

I'm not one of the people who piss and moan about every little thing around here

Fact is when Lincoln came in and his stats flashed on the screen with a WHIP of +1.5 and and ERA of +6 I thought now is the time to get it done.

Let’s not think the hitters had some awakening in the 14 inning, Lincoln shouldn’t be pitching in the MLB this year, he is bad bad bad

El Borto - June 8, 2009 reply

but that's what we're supposed to do

beat up on bad pitchers.

Agreed

Also on mediocre ones like Arroyo, but I digress.

we did get three off him

didn’t we?

Arroyo always seems to pitch well against the Cubs.

(Too lazy to look up whether this is actually true.)

Also, I hate – absolutely hate – his pitching mechanics. That stupid straight-out leg kick drives me crazy.

Arroyo

has pitched well against the Cubs overall. (Not only that, but I also believe he hit two homers off Glendon Rusch.)

Yep, I remember that.

daver - June 9, 2009 reply

I actually

thought we would win it against weathers. Then I was certain we would get to Burton. In the end I’m just glad we got to somebody.

Fontenot is already exposed... As an everyday player.

If they are going to make some trades it should be for a 2nd baseman and bull pen depth. The reason the bats all of a sudden woke up yesterday was because they were facing the last guy in the Reds pen who threw a slider to Sori that didn’t slide. I’m glad they capitalized on Lincoln’s mistakes.

The point was that when Ramirez comes back...

Fontenot is not overexposed anymore. Then, he becomes a platoon 2B.

With who Miles?

I would rather get a 2nd baseman that can play everyday. That is my point.

Miles or Scales...

You’re not going to be able to get a guy without paying out the wazoo, and he’s not going to necessarily be a huge upgrade over Fontenot vs RHP.

It’s not like fantastic 2B options are abundantly available. And we don’t have trade freedom as we lack prospects and we don’t have financial flexibility anymore. That’s the counterpoint.

Freddy Sanchez would be a HUGE upgrade.

He isn’t owed a lot. If they are willing to rid McClouth for next to nothing, they should at least inquire.

We do have some decent young players. The minor league teams are doing fairly well. Don’t sell them short.

A big problem is Sanchez has a vesting option

that will guarantee him a contract for next year.

He's owed a lot relative to what we have available...

and I wouldn’t say McClouth went for next-to-nothing.

We have SOME decent young players. But our farm is definitely on the lower end of the totem pole, and we’re going to need some of them to play for the Cubs someday.

Gorkys Hernandez is the only guy they got...

the other 2 have already failed multiple times in the Majors.

Only Morton had seen the majors

And he’s only been up once. Locke is a 21 year old LHP who hasn’t pitched above A+ ball. So I’m not seeing where those guys failed multiple times in the majors. They’re all prospects.

We just make up stats around here

it’s fun

Sorry... I made a mistake.

People tend to do that everyday.

maybe even baseball players?

Booyah network when asked about the trade reported

that 2 of the 3 players have failed at the MLB level already and didn’t really think the trade benefited the Pirates.

While I doubt that the trade benefits the pirates

My point was that you said people make mistakes everyday, and that we should remember that our players on the field are people too. I guess reading back, my point has absolutely nothing to do with this conversation

we have, at a conservative count

eight million second basemen. We do not need more second basemen, unless they can also play short and third.

We have 2 minor leaguers and 2 utility guys.

There is no stability at that position.

I agree that it could be improved

But putting Theriot there and getting a better hitting, legitimate SS would help both spots.

True... I think so too.

I think Hendry and Lou both look at SS as Theriot’s position. But I totally agree with you.

so do i

Too bad you two aren't Piniella and Hendry in disguise!

Since we’re not likely to get that, I agree with Fishbone that a better 2Bman would be a welcome improvement.

I like Fontenot just fine, but he’s not an everyday player – and I don’t think that they have the RH counterpart of that platoon on the roster.

I'd love to be

First order of business would be to sit down w/ Geo and have a meeting with him. :)

Yes, but...

What if we corner the market on 2Bs! Imagine how lucrative that could be….

It's been done

See: 2006

Getting Aramis back post-ASB...

Is better than any trade we could make right now.

Exactly!

It’s like trading for an All-Star, only it costs you nothing in dollars or minor leaguers.

Nomar Garciaparra comes to mind

If...

Aramis comes back w/ no lingering health problems. Having dislocated my shoulder multiple times, it is a strength sapping injury, and long recovery period. I’m hoping for the best, but…

I'm prepared for a serious lack of power

especially for the first couple weeks back.

Probably due to getting acclimated to the live pitching again more so than not being able to generate power

Aramis after shoulder injury = if not > mike fontenot powerwise

Scott Rolen had a similar injury

his power took a while to come back all the way.

True.

But Aramis is so much sexier than Scott Rolen

LMAO

But seriously, Rolen’s injury was more severe.

As I recall, Rolen's injury was from a collission at first base

with Hee Seop Choi.

hahaha Hee Seop Choi

I remember when he played for the cubs…wish i didn’t tho.

desmoCubbie - June 8, 2009 reply

Once, at the Cub Convention

Some clueless woman spotted Choi and said, “Look, there’s Ho Chi . . .!” As she struggled for a last name, my friend helpfully said, “Minh.” She then yelled, “Ho Chi Minh! Can I have your autograph?” I still laugh when I think of that.

Wow...

That’s amazing. :)

That is wrong on so many levels

but damn did it make me laugh

I wasn't even next to him when he did it

But was in tears laughing so hard when he told me a minute later.

I so will tell that story when someone returns from vacation

You are also not a professional athlete with access to the best medical and training staffs at your finger-tips

No

I’m not. But I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

hahahaha

well played

that was an amazing reply

desmoCubbie - June 8, 2009 reply

wasn't it though?

i’m not even mad, im impressed

What's with you reading my mind today?

Rec’d again.

Yeah

I feel ya on that one. I’ve had similar injuries to Rami’s and it took a long time before things felt “normal”.

Allie - June 8, 2009 reply

Except...

I fear A-Ram will struggle at the plate with that shoulder.

I think it depends on what you're looking for.

Ramirez back will allow Fontenot and his dance partner to fill second and fill in an everyday player at third who knows the position and is not a stop gap.

Ramirez should still have his eye and be able to draw walks. He should also be able to make contact. His power and whether he can fill the need for a star hitter is in question.

I’ll settle for him as a contact hitter for a few weeks to build his back his power if time is needed. No matter what, he’ll be a huge upgrade.

N Oakley - June 8, 2009 reply

Exactly.

Rec’d.

I agree

I’ll just be happy to have a real threat to get a base hit in the lineup. Plus a real defensive third baseman.

Agreed...

Ramirez gives you three things even if he only has doubles power:

1. he gives you a guy who is comfortable and capable at 3B defensively
2. he pushes Fontenot back into the platoon role at 2B (reducing the overexposure)
3. he gives an above average bat in the lineup in place of a terrible bat

That’s a big gain, in my opinion. And that’s assuming he doesn’t have his power (which may be a fair assumption).

3? I'll argue 4.

Whoever plays 2B that day, whoever is playing 3B, the C whether Soto or Hill and when Soriano is mired in the funk that he’s in, he belongs there too. Bonus point for Zambrano when he pitches under the LaRussa school of managing.

krummy12 - June 8, 2009 reply

how do we have flexibility at 1st?

Lee has an NTC. I can’t imagine Hoff or Fox gets us much.

Rami will come back. Lee is already hitting better. Bradley won’t hit .220 all year. Soriano won’t slump forever. With Rami back, Fonty gets to go back to 2nd, and even platoon with Blanco or Freel so he gets rest. The lineup improves because we get our best hitter back, we’re not as exposed, and we get our guys more rest.

I admire your overt optimism.

Seriously. I mean it. I got to the point lately that I’m keeping it to myself.

Only as a cubs fan will you feel beaten down for a glass half full philosophy…

heh

well, this is the kind of fan I am. :D

I just think it’s better to say “alright, these things can change for the better” than it is to moan and wail and gnash teeth. I do that enough DURING the games to myself.

Oh, Freel...

Is he still here? :-)

still on the DL

afaik. Miles is apparently doing ok on his AAA rehab assignment.

I know he is...

I’m just being facetious :)

In a sense I almost feel guilty in that I don’t like Freel on the Cubs, but I don’t really have any basis for it. He hasn’t played enough to demonstrate whether he can perform. It’s almost like I don’t want him on the team only because it makes it more complicated…

But really that isn’t his fault. So I shouldn’t make fun.

It seems the last few years

if you don’t produce immediately, you’re labled a bum, and there’s no escaping it.

Jacque Jones fits in this category to an extent, although he brought most of it on himself. (His second-half play in 2007 was pretty darned good.)

Agree about Jones.

The way many fans treated him was disgraceful. There are segments of the Cub’s fan base that make me cringe at having them on my side. (maybe that’s true for all teams? I don’t know…)

I didn’t notice it as much pre-2003. But it sure reared its ugly head once we seemed to get the idea that we were entitled to win…

Or at least, that’s what it seemed like to me.

Contracts

Do I feel that majority of our outfield is overpaid? Yes But to say Sori or MB isn;’t earning his money, why should we fault him.

Let’s be honest here, how many of us if our employers offered us the chance to stay 2-6 years regardless of our performance and then allowed us to neg. an incredible salary. Who would say no? I won’t. Granted I’d have to listen to people saying MCF is making way too much $$$ for what she is doing. But is it my fault? No, the rules are set as such.

Excellent post

ty :)

Very well said.

And we must also remember that in baseball, we can’t predict what will happen. Will a player succeed or slump? The only way we can find out is watching them play throughout the season.

Also, the best players usually have around a .350 batting average.

That means on average, they fail 13 out of 20 times.

baseball is a game of failure...

you hit it on the head!

I've heard several reports

Which say that hitting a baseball is one of the hardest things to do in sports.

I don’t have a link, sorry.

it is a game of failure

When a person that succeeds 8 out of twenty times is a god and a person who succeeds 5 out of twenty times is an average joe, then yes, its a game surrounded by failure

Not quite accurate...

the best players fail 11 or 12 times out of 20. Base hits are not the only positive outcomes from a plate appearance.

Failing 12 out of 20 times is a .400 average.

And 11 out of 20 times is a .450 average. No one in baseball history has ever had a .450 average.

Last year, Chipper Jones led ML with a .364 average. It’s closer to failing 13 out of 20 times.

Yearly leaders by league.

Here are some links.

Single-season average leaders. The last time someone had over a .400 average was 1941.

And here are some more links...

Yearly leaders by league (OBP, not AVG):
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_perc_leagues.shtml

Single-season OBP leaders:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_perc_season.shtml

For some reason, people have bought into this notion that if it’s not a base hit, it’s a failure. Walks are good things too. They aren’t QUITE as nice as base hits, but they most certainly aren’t a failure.

Just saw those.

You’re right about the OBP counting, too. As you so well put it, the best players fail 11 or 12 out of 20 times, not 13 as I originally suggested.

I don't know if anyone has noticed...

But Barry Bonds was really freaking good.

A .609 OPB in 2004! Good lord…

In 2004, don't you remember?

That year, he walked nearly every time he came to bat, because teams were so afraid of his home run power.

Yeah, I remember that was the year...

I guess I just never saw the number. That’s crazy! :)

Your mistake is that you're only considering AVG

As I said, base hits aren’t the only positive outcomes of a plate appearances. Walks are good things too.

Plenty of players have had an OBP between .400 and .450 every year. Some players have even topped .500 in OBP in a season, if I’m not mistaken.

The league average for OBP is around .330. That means that 13 times out of 20 is just slightly above average.

I get your point.

On-base percentage is also a good way to measure a player. My mistake.

Key word here is SEASON

Exactly.

The players in baseball are able to negotiate their salary before the season even begins. Most people can’t do that.

granted it is based off of prior performance

my point is that people forget that there is an entire season to be played, and calling someone done in June is just not logical in my opinion

How very true

There are 162 games in the season, and if a player is in a slump, he always has the chance to break out of it.

I agree with the sentiment

of some that you were very generous with the catching grade. I think that STARTING pitching would be a solid “A”, as the rotation is only .07 behind the Cardinals #2 ranking in ERA, which was Marshall’s horrendous start last Sunday, at the game I was at!

Their BAA is .242, 2nd in the league to the Dodgers. Without the starting pitching, the team would be mired in the cellar, for sure.

The bullpen, with Marmol, and Gregg, as the two that were supposed to close things out as Al states, is middle of the pack. C-/D+ is about right.

The E-Man - June 8, 2009 reply

Are people seriously debating Juan Pierre v. Alfonso Soriano?

How could anybody in their right mind honestly convince themselves into thinking that Juan Pierre is better than Alfonso Soriano. That is just idiotic.

No...

They are debating whether Pierre and Carlos Lee would be better than Alfonso Soriano.

TheRiot Police - June 8, 2009 reply

In underlining the A

Just looked this up, more stats:

Cubs 2009 Starters
WHIP K/BB Ratio K/9
1.25 2.53 7.98

The above important stats are the best in the NL as of today.

The E-Man - June 8, 2009 reply

Makes me smile

I only wish that the bullpen won't being up as many BB.

Imagine the WHIP our relievers would have w/ half as many of them :)

CUBSfaninYANKEEcountry - June 8, 2009 reply

Al, the eternal optimist.

That’s what I like about Al. Thanks for brightening my day.

I agree with most of what Al wrote, namely: Hendry and Lou dismantled key components of this team based on a flawed idea. As Joe Morgan, of all people, said on TV a couple of Sundays ago, the front office panicked though the team only lost two years in a row to two teams who were hot at the time. Lou might look disinterested, but I wondered if he promised to knock off the antics after MLB reduced his suspension a couple of years ago. He hasn’t shown the same passion afterwards.

Also, so far, Soto and Fontenot haven’t played up to expectations. Soto looks out of shape and I suspect his shoulder has bothered him more than what we have been told. That would explain the errant throws and the constant pop-ups.

The bullpen has improved, though Mármol has regressed. I’m still unimpressed by Gregg but Guzmán has been a shot in the arm to the relief corps. Fukodome has regressed to his gyrating motions at the plate so I believe it’s just a matter of time before we see him as the backup OF and Reed Johnson as the regular CF.

D. Lee and M. Bradley started hitting this month but Bradley’s constant injuries have cost the team a lot. The unknown factor is how many games he will end up playing this year. Soriano needs to have more good streaks than bad streaks. So far, he’s been a disappointment, both offensively and defensively. He can do better.

We can’t deny that right now, Aramis Ramírez is the heart of this team. His absence destabilized both the infield’s defense and the team’s offense. Two other unknown factors are what condition will Ramírez be in when he returns and how long that will take.

Finally, the starting rotation is excellent with the addition of Wells. He fills in admirably for Harden. I can’t wait to see both of them in that rotation.

In summary, the Cubs are in a good spot, despite the team’s flaws and multiple injuries. The NL Central is one of the few divisions in baseball with 4 contending teams playing over .500. Therefore, it’s going to take a good winning record to prevail in this division. It’s not the Comedy Central anymore. I don’t expect any dramatic additions to the team, since we are in tough economic times and the sale of the team appears to be stuck, if not doomed altogether.

I differ from Al in that I don’t think this is a championship team, even if every injured player returns and plays up to their career numbers. But they can win the division if they do. And Al is right, who knows what happens in the postseason? Just ask the 2007 and 2008 Cubs.

Fraggin Judge - June 8, 2009 reply

Nice work, Al.

Good assessment of the team at the 1/3 mark. Lou not having any energy concerns me. He’s so lethargic. Maybe if Pinella would have shown some emotion during that long losing streak, the streak wouldn’t of continued for as long as it did. The catchers grade is a little generous, but I see that was discussed earlier, so I won’t get into that. Overall, a very accurate grading. We are right where we need to be, and when we get everybody back, we should make a run at this thing.

Agreed!

Often times I wonder if he is fully awake in the dugout. It really seems as if Trammel is running the team as far as day-to-day things happen. And, as the bench coach, he probably has more influence than we know.

“I don’t think this is a championship team…” I’d have to agree with this. And, somehow, Fontenot, Miles, Scales do not = Mark DeRosa. MLB’s best insurance policy.

- sigh – I’d feel more comfortable if the ownership issue was resolved insofar as a new player acquisition, but I don’t.

The E-Man - June 8, 2009 reply

I know it's the Chicago way to love Ditka-esque coaches, E,

but I don’t think Lou’s lost any fire and desire. Does he show it as often? No, not publicly. So what? That’s not why the Cubs haven’t played up to potential so far.

The losing streak wouldn’t have been any shorter if Lou had pitched a fit.

People like to cite coaches like Ditka, as if stomping around and screaming all the time won the Bears the Super Bowl. No, it was having players like Singletary and Dent and Hampton and Payton.

Every time you hear about coaches not having the “fire,” remember guys like Cito Gaston and Tom Kelly, who looked like they were asleep on the bench even as their teams were winning World Series.

The only ones that really know if he's lost his fire and desire

are Lou and his team. I will lay blame at Lou’s feet at times but that is based on his on-field decisions that I don’t agree with. Yes, I know, he doesn’t really care what I think lol

Especially last year, I thought we had it all, the most well rounded Cubs team in many a year. I still can’t figure out why their sphincters clamped shut after Loney hit the granny. DeRo had hit a dinger earlier, it’s still early in the game and we are only down 2. We had come back SOOO many times from worst situations during the season. It frosts my cookies that as professionals, they collectively choked on the big one, except for D Lee. The only fault I can find with Lou is that he left Demp in too long, maybe. As a team that fought together all year to pull out wins and to pound the ball with regularity, I can’t figure out how Loney’s HR basically ended the series. I wish I could have been in the clubhouse after that game to hear and feel the mood. Were they upbeat, hey we can do it or Crap! What just happened! We’re doomed. Or nothing.

Here's some hope for the next two weeks

At the 1/3 mark, the Cubs record is:

HOME: 16-10
ROAD: 12-16
DAY: 14-9
NIGHT: 14-17

Now… we’ve got 12 games coming up, with a 9 game homestand, before we hit the road again. 9 of those games are day games. Hopefully we can go 9-3 here and get to 8 games over .500

I give the management

a D- and the catching a C-.
I just wish the team would relax in box and start stroking the ball.
I wonder is Lou is so overbearing whether its non-verbal or verbal that some of these guys struggle because of it.?

OK, so now we have someone who says

Lou’s overdoing it. And we have people who say he isn’t doing enough.

That tells me he’s just about right.

My Report Card

D+
C-
C-
A-
C-
D-

The outfield barely gets above a D just because I believe I have to include Hoffy.

Cub Style - June 8, 2009 reply

CCCADD

DAD

ADD

38 EE

Grading Morganna style.

N Oakley - June 8, 2009 reply

64-44 The Rest of the Way

64-44 in the remaining two-thirds of the season is not out of the question. If the Cubs do that, then they will finish with a 92-70 record. Every NL team since the 1999 Reds that has posted at least 92 wins has made the playoffs.

memphiscub - June 8, 2009 reply

I think

92 wins will easily take the division. I think 90 wins does it.

I think if the Cubs are within 5 at the ASG and Ramirez is healthy

That they are still a huge threat to win the division.

* regardless of # of wins

Assuming everyone else is healthy, I agree

Indeed

Jason Beats the Cards 5-2

Sorry no game thread to post this in. Our former nice Jewish boy was very good, 6.2 innings 87 pitches 2 runs.

Doggie Stalker - June 8, 2009 reply

Amazing. Sweeping the Redbirds in St. Louis.

I hope the Rox have 3 more wins left in that streak.

White Sox lose ( in Cub fashion)

Tied game in bottom 8 but gave up unearned run in 9th to lose.

Doggie Stalker - June 8, 2009 reply

The question is

The White Sox and Brewers play each other in Milwaukee right after the Rockies leave Mil. As Cubs fans, who should we cheer for?

That's an easy one

I really don’t care where the White Sox finish. The Brewers are in the Cubs’ division.

Yep. Can o' corn.

daver - June 9, 2009 reply

three are one

drewishdrewid - June 9, 2009 reply

Good guys win. This discussion is OVAH!!!

daver - June 9, 2009 reply

NICE!

see? He’s still nearly as helpful as he was when he was on the Cubs roster. :P

Wow

I’ll bet it’s been a while since Col swept a 4-game series on the road.

Thanks guys.

salparadise23 - June 8, 2009 reply

That is amazing - especially at New Busch.

Let’s consider it payback by proxy for the last time the Cubs were in St. Louis.

So THAT'S why Hendry traded him!

To wreak havoc on the Cards when the Cubs couldn’t. Damn he’s smart.

Management

I read through the thread and I don’t think that I saw any response to Lou coming out to argue the play at third. From where I was sitting by the foul pole almost as soon as I the ump made the call Lou jumped down from his perch in the dugout and raced through the dugout . Someone (not sure who) had to hurry off the step out of his way as Lou made his way to the field.

Then he got to the field.

I swear, that as soon as Lou said two words to the ump, it seemed as if he started to look around for someone to tell him why he had come to the field. Then I guess someone shouted to him that the runner was safe because he decided to argue some more but less than two seconds later he forgot again and made his way back to the dugout.

I don’t need Lou throwing bases and kicking dirt but sometimes I get the feeling that he either isn’t in to the games or he’s losing it.

It looked to me that Lou asked him if he was out

and then said F*** Me. and Damn it. Probably upset not only bc the call went against the Cubs, but because he had to run out of the dugout for no reason.

Last year

we had a team of All Stars. This year no position player deserves a slot. That’s an incredible decline. Last year we were 1st in runs, this year we’re 13/16. Last year the OPS+ was 103. Now it is 88.

How about the relief staff with a WHIP of 1.503. And the worst stat of all. The sOPS+ for our staff against the first batters they face is 1.59. Last year it was 1.01.

How about Hill. Yes, he had a great start. But after his great game against the Dbacks in April he’s 4/27 and looks lost out there. Personally I give the Catchers a D. Soto just isn’t the 2008 model.

We have only 1 strong element, our starting staff. If they ever go through a stretch of bad starts we’re toast. This roster is terribly flawed from a position player standpoint and I feel that the return of ARam is not enough to compensate for the holes in our lineup. Our +2 record entitles us to a C. However, based upon expectations, the team has earned an overall D from me.

tharr - June 8, 2009 reply

I gotta tell you

reading this thread has been fun. Mainly because of all the D and Fs and doom.
I’m not a stat guy, but I think the .500ish for the record is what matters and tells us the most. The overall grade for the team should be near average, which is where Al seems to have it.
Over the last couple of weeks I keep coming back to one thing, there are a lot of people here who need to be thanking the baseball gods every day that they are Cubs fans. Because considering the amount of despair and hate that has come out so far, if they were fans of a team that’s actually bad, Washington, Houston, Cleveland, I don’t know how they would survive.

chitownhawkeye - June 8, 2009 reply

Rec'd

But we've had bad teams more than good teams

How many Cub teams have been over .500 since 1945? We have been the doormats more times than we have been winners since I’ve been alive (1958). I rooted for them then and still do

It’s just frustrating to get your heart ripped out like 3 of the last 6 years. Most of the time, the Cubs were out of it by the ASB and you slowly quit watching them throughout the season. Then, 1984 comes around and then 1989, etc etc and you get the feeling that they can really erase the decades of futility. And then, the mother of all let downs, 2003. 5 outs away from the frigging World Series!!! I was just about to get on the phone and buy a plane ticket. Seriously. And now we have what I feel are stronger teams these last 2 seasons and they can’t get a post season victory, and this year we may not even get to the post season.

It’s harder to be even keeled when you actually expect success. We live and die with every pitch now, because we are so close. Believe me, personally, it wasn’t as hard to be a fan when they sucked. It’s harder on me now that with the Good Lord’s help, we may actually get there.

I've just lost all faith in humanity.

Watching the ESPN game tonight—Devil Rays & Yankees (I refuse to call them “Rays”), and it just dawned on me that Derek Jeter has THREE F***ING GOLD GLOVES. THREE!!!! He’s a career -6 UZR!!!!!

Jeter has three gold gloves thanks to one play...

He made that running catch in which he fell into the stands and got his face scratched up. The guy won the gold glove that year and the two subsequent years.

The gold glove vote is based on reputation or moments. That moment got Jeter a reputation as a gold glover despite having no range and being a below average fielder.

San Diego Smooth Jazz Man - June 8, 2009 reply

Mostly agree with grades

Except for:

Catcher . My grade would be D at best. Soto is seriously out of shape and not only can’t hit but his defense has been poor. I don’t know about calling games, the pitcher has the final say anyway.
I think I would have put him on the DL and into a rigorous training program for 2-3 weeks. It would have rested his shoulder and toned him up at the same time. Hill really hasn’t been much better but the final grade is about Soto since he’s played the most.

Management:
Hendry overthought the LH-RH which caused him to make some poor decisions. Expecting Bradley to play in the field and hit well at the same time are possibly mutually exclusive events. History shows he hasn’t been able to do that.
Not adequately backing up one of your major run producing spots ( 3rd base) was a by product of the cost to acquire Bradley.
I actually think Pinella has overachieved a bit in that he has manuevered the pieces enough to keep the team in striking distance despite the horrible starts of key players and key injuries.
I think some put too much emphasis on Pinella’s demeanor. He’s dumb like a fox, he knows what he’s doing.
Management gets B-

alexinSac - June 8, 2009 reply

A cautionary tale to the Washington Nationals

Mark Prior, Interviewed today (Monday) on Double-X Sports Radio in San Diego…was asked by the host….

“How are you feeling??”

Prior’s response: “Physically??? Not so good. I’ve had more setbacks.”

The Nats better hope and pray that Stephen Strasberg stays healthy…

He's not still on a team, is he?

He's on a minor league affiliate of San Diego

And hasn’t thrown a pitch all year.

not to be mean

but seriously, I don’t think you can call them “setbacks” anymore. That’s the baseline. He might as well say his arm feels normal, which is not good.

chitownhawkeye - June 8, 2009 reply

Well shit...

I’m on hour five of studying for an ethics exam tomorrow concerning Nietzsche, Freud, Camus, MLK, Socrates, major religions, and a plethora of court cases. Fun stuff!

Chanman25 - June 8, 2009 reply

Ugh. Did that few weeks ago. Don't envy you.

Just remember that Sisyphus...

and the Cubs have nothing to do with each other. :)

CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) - June 9, 2009 reply

you promise?

Well I can't deny...

that I do wonder sometimes… :-/ :)

Though I prefer to think that the guy who said that “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result” was just a defeatist. :-p

CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) - June 9, 2009 reply

LOL

I like the idea…

Wow.

I screwed up the punchline on that: was supposed to be “insanity is doing the same thing…”

Hopefully you knew what I meant though :)

CubFanInCanberra (9387milesfromWrigley) - June 10, 2009 reply

yeah

I’m so fluent in typo-ese that I fill in blanks like that without thinking.. :)

Going to disagree

I think that your infield/outfield/catcher break-up has understated how simply horrific the Cubs offense has been. Their inability to drive in runs, to score runners who are in scoring position with 0 or 1 outs, etc has been uncanny. This, to me, is what has doomed this team. Its not just a hurt Aramis Ramirez, but a firstbaseman lacking power, middle infielders who are very inconsistent (and not full time players), and really no consistency from anyone. This offense just sucks.

Needless to say, I am going to disagree with the “lefty obsession” that continues to be raised. Count me amongst those who felt that some big changes were needed after collapses against the Dbacks and Dodgers. IMO it wasn’t just happenstance, it was an offense lacking balance that was shut down by good pitching. Even with the Cubs great 2008 they still left a lot of guys on base and struggled against certain types of pitchers. I personally think this criticism of Piniella and Hendry going after lefties is laughable. Every team goes for the balance of lefties and righties, and the Cubs lack of balance over the last few years made this need clear. Everyone want this balance, but Lou gets criticized for having this obsession… but so be it. Everyone is allowed their opinions.

dmlichte - June 8, 2009 reply

I don't agree with you often dmlichte...

However, in this case I am solidly in your corner. Every other manager in the big leagues wants L/R balance in the line-up, Jim & Lou set out to obtain that balance, and they are roundly criticized for overreaction to the sweep at the hands of the Dodgers. It is laughable. People must remember that players that they feel should get more PT, (i.e. RJ), did not get ONE AB in the NLDS last year. A team can not be said to have versatility if they can not force a change that allows a suitable match-up to show such said versatility.

Jimmyeatworld - June 8, 2009 reply

I think 'doomed' is a little strong

The season’s not over yet. In fact, it’s only one-third over. Not to say some of your points aren’t well-taken.

Not Bruce Froemming - June 9, 2009 reply

And if you think the Cubs are bad,

what I’ve seen from the Cardinals the last week or so hasn’t been very pretty.

Not Bruce Froemming - June 9, 2009 reply

Do you live within their broadcast area?

I don’t know if I could handle that. :)

I think there's some truth to your points...

and I’m not going to say that you are wrong.

But I guess part of the way I look at it is this:

I’ll stipulate that there is probably merit to the idea of being more balanced LH/RH (I don’t have the data to back that up, but it’s my opinion off of my perceptions). I imagine that it increases the odds that you are going to win games. Even so, I don’t think lacking that balance precludes you from winning in either the playoffs or the regular season (At least for the latter, the Cubs have demonstrated that).

I think the problem is the playoffs by their nature are kind of the ultimate sample size problem. Or to paraphrase Billy Beane in Moneyball, they’re a crapshoot. In that sense, I think looking at the playoffs and making fundamental decisions about the makeup of your team is a problem. We convince ourselves that there is something intrinsically different about games in the playoffs than any other games. There isn’t.

If you want to evaluate the strength of your team in the playoffs, you should look at your performance against the top handful of the teams in the league when facing their top 3 pitchers over the course of a season. By doing that, you expand your sample size to something that is likely more meaningful and dispositive.

Maybe Hendry and Piniella did that, and if so then I’m fine with their decisions. But I do worry that they looked solely at the two first round playoff series and that was it. As I said, in principle I don’t have any problem with reworking the team to be more balanced. But in the specific, it seems at least possible that the way they went about it may have had unintended consequences that we’re going to regret.

I hope not and we’ll see I guess.