WASHINGTON -- Finally arrived early this afternoon in the nation's capital, or more correctly, in suburban Virginia where I'm staying with friends. By the time you see this post, I should be on my way to Nationals Park; it's my first visit there. Email me if you are going to be at any of the four games and I'll try to meet up with you. I know there are a ton of expatriate Chicagoans in Washington and also there are quite a few people I know who have headed east for this series. With the Nats doing poorly and not drawing well (averaging 23,413, 24th in the majors), I expect the entire weekend to be filled with Cub-centric crowds.
At this writing the Cubs have made no roster moves, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear that they had made a deal, or more, or signed B.J. Ryan to a minor league contract, before they take the field tonight.
Paul Sullivan details five things the Cubs must do to improve in the second half and reports that Milton Bradley swears, yes, swears, he'll be better:
"When I tell you I'm back, I'm back," he said. "You can mark it down. I'm going to be hitting for the rest of the year."
All I can say is this: I sure hope he's right. If he can put together a second half even close to what we all expected when he was signed to the big-money deal last winter, the Cubs' offense will be markedly improved.
Bruce Miles has a similar take on the second half. So does Gordon Wittenmyer in the Sun-Times.
Update on the Cubs' sale: Tribune Co. is going to file for bankruptcy for the Cubs, as first predicted a couple of days ago. This procedural move will make it easier for the sale to be completed to the Ricketts group and will apparently help protect the new owners from Tribune Co. creditors after the sale is done:
In the Cubs' case, a Chapter 11 filing says nothing about the team's solvency or its ability to pay player contracts. But it could prevent Tribune creditors from chasing a new Cubs owner for partial satisfaction on Tribune debts.
The tactic for the Cubs "would deliver as clear a title as possible to the new owner of the team," said a source close to the talks. "It's a way in some respects of inoculating the team."
Soon. Very soon, maybe as soon as next month, we'll have new owners. In the meantime, there are games to be played. And won.
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Ross Detwiler was supposed to start this game, but he was sent to Triple-A Syracuse right as the break began. Instead, we get John Lannan, an actual good pitcher. I'd love to see the Cubs try to get him someday -- he's a lefty sinkerballer who would do very well at Wrigley. He is 2-0, 3.38 lifetime vs. the Cubs; the last start he made vs. the Cubs was August 22, 2008 at Wrigley. In that game, the Cubs actually hit him pretty well (5 ER in 6.1 IP), but the Nats teed off on three Cubs relievers, pounding Chad Gaudin for six runs including a grand slam by Willie Harris. Obviously, that won't happen tonight. Derrek Lee is 2-for-5 vs. Lannan with a HR.
If only the Rich Harden who threw seven two-hit, one-run, no-walk, eleven-strikeout innings vs. the Nationals on August 24, 2008 at Wrigley Field would show up tonight, we'd have no problems. The only Nat who has more than one hit off him is ex-Pirate Nyjer Morgan (3-for-4). This might be a real good game to get Harden back on track.
The Cubs are back on cable today -- CSN Chicago and MASN, the Washington/Baltimore area cable sports outlet. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.
Baseball-reference.com game preview
Overflow comment threads will post today at 7 pm, 8 pm and 8:45 pm CDT.
Discuss amongst yourselves.
0 recs | 133 comments
YAY!!!! Cub's baseball tonight!
sue369 - July 16, 2009
No kidding.
This has been one hec of a long week. Makes me wonder how I make it through the winter.
katie casey - July 16, 2009
answer:
football
Allie - July 16, 2009
Yucky
I may try college basketball though. My daughter will be starting at Marquette in the fall. My husband went to DePaul and is a big Blue Demon fan. It will be fun to start a rivalry with him.
katie casey - July 16, 2009
College basketball is fun.
But I love football most of all.
Allie - July 16, 2009
Not more than baseball though...?
katie casey - July 16, 2009
I like football
and basketball better than baseball.
sue369 - July 16, 2009
You’re killin me here, Sue.
dtpollitt - July 16, 2009 via mobile
Way more
Swimming > football > baseball > basketball > other sports.
Allie - July 16, 2009
I live for baseball.
Beyond absolute basics, I don’t even know the rules for most other sports. I just never was interested.
katie casey - July 16, 2009
I swam for 15 years
and my first living memory is of dancing around my grandad’s study wearing my older brother’s Payton jersey singing the “Super Bowl Shuffle”
Allie - July 16, 2009
I still have that song in vinyl.
katie casey - July 16, 2009
I have it on video cassette
and theres a polaroid of me in mid dance somewhere.
Allie - July 16, 2009
Swimming 15 yrs
you must be very good.
katie casey - July 16, 2009
I was pretty good
I blew out my shoulder while training for the paralympic trials.
Now, I’m just a fan and might coach someday.
Allie - July 16, 2009
sorry about your shoulder :(
katie casey - July 17, 2009
Me too
but it was fun while it lasted.
Allie - July 17, 2009
"When I tell you I'm back, I'm back..."
To show you
I can really
SHAKE ’EM DOWN!!!
♪ ♫ Do ya love me?! (do ya love me) Do ya love me?! (do ya love me) Do ya love me?! Now that I can dance. ♪ ♫
WATCH ME NOW!
daver - July 16, 2009
We had issues with this team last season
Hopefully that won’t continue.
nji232 - July 16, 2009
Lineup!
RJ
Theriot
Bradley
DLee
Aramis
Soriano
Baker
Hill
Harden.
drewishdrewid - July 16, 2009
guess Lou
didn’t hear all the talk around here about hitting Milton in the two hole.
elgato - July 16, 2009
Well, I assume Milton will be batting right-handed vs. the LHP Hannan.
So I like him batting third. His numbers from the right side are pretty impressive – .918 OPS, though in only 67 PAs.
daver - July 16, 2009
I can buy that
elgato - July 16, 2009
I also like putting him
in the 3 hole—it’s a nice show of confidence by Lou. Also, with Milton announcing he’s back—what better way than hitting 3 for us the remainder of the year?
socalbob - July 16, 2009
Here comes BJ
Just got a tweet from ESPNChicago saying he signed a one-year deal.
nji232 - July 16, 2009
link
here
nji232 - July 16, 2009
Summarize for me? MU rulz??
dtpollitt - July 16, 2009 via mobile
1 year
minor league deal.
drewishdrewid - July 16, 2009
TWSS
daver - July 16, 2009
Why is Harden starting?
Lilly, Z, and Wells could all be on normal rest periods.
Kansas25 - July 16, 2009
Because there isn't a better way to start the second half
than throwing your worst pitcher.
nji232 - July 16, 2009
get his start
out of the way?
drewishdrewid - July 16, 2009
Ensure his start...
is against the worst team in baseball?
Kansas25 - July 16, 2009
BINGO.
Confidence builder.
daver - July 16, 2009
But doesn't it line him up to face the Phillies?
Rich Harden + power hitters + hitters park= disaster.
nji232 - July 16, 2009
Every time I see that W on the Washington hat
I think of the Walgreens logo.
katie casey - July 16, 2009
Let's hope the Nationals...
…are like medicine for what ails the Cubs.
MPH73 - July 16, 2009
LOL!!!
I think the same thing
bigz38fan - July 16, 2009
The Cubs have a sickness...
…and the prescription is more Washington Nationals.
daver - July 16, 2009
awesome
elgato - July 16, 2009
The cure for what ails you?
Allie - July 16, 2009
I prefer,
Ales what cures you.
katie casey - July 16, 2009
This is a big series
A perfect opprtunity to get things started out heading in the right direction by taking at least 3 of 4.
Need Harden to pitch well. Hopefully he is well rested.
Ryanocm1 - July 16, 2009
Will Ryan...
start in AAA or come straight to the club?
Kansas25 - July 16, 2009
I would tend
to believe that he would make an appearance or two down at Iowa, but I don’t know that for sure.
DamonBerryhillsMitt - July 16, 2009
Article said he was heading to Mesa to build arm strength
BleedsbluinMI - July 16, 2009
Well, that's good. Arm strength is good.
daver - July 16, 2009
You mean... to inject arm strength...
j/k
SackMan - July 16, 2009
Who is the backup Catcher?
Are the Cubs going to trade for a veteran, or call up someone from Iowa? Or go with Fox?
tripdenten - July 16, 2009
As of now,
still Fox.
DamonBerryhillsMitt - July 16, 2009
This 2nd half especially...
…I think it is crucial for the Cubs to come out like it is opening day and run off a good record for the first 6-7 games. If they don’t, I fear the funk will continue and you could see some guys underachieve for the duration. If that happens, they have no chance.
MPH73 - July 16, 2009
SWL get the Jays symbol off and the Cubs symbol on
wrigleyrocker12 - July 16, 2009
You need to reverse the image so he's left-handed.
daver - July 16, 2009
This is a disgrace to The Chosen One.
dtpollitt - July 16, 2009 via mobile
EXPELLIARMUS!
drewishdrewid - July 16, 2009
The "Z" function is not working for me
I’ve e-mailed SBN about it and they told me it would be fixed by now, but it’s still happening: every time I press “z” to go to the next unread comment, the page jumps to the top, but it un-highlights comments.
Anybody else having this issue? I’m on Safari 4.0.2.
chilango2 - July 16, 2009
I have it occasionally
But I have google chrome.
wrigleyrocker12 - July 16, 2009
No Chrome for Mac just yet
chilango2 - July 16, 2009
I had the same issue last night on my laptop
No problems today at work though.
nji232 - July 16, 2009
with all apologies to the White Sox
… my pick to click tonight: Milton Bradley
elgato - July 16, 2009
Milton is that you?
nji232 - July 16, 2009
You can put it on the (message) booooooooooard...........aw hell yes!
daver - July 16, 2009
?
The reference is lost to me.
chilango2 - July 16, 2009
Hawk and Stone
always select a “pick to click” at the start of every game.
DamonBerryhillsMitt - July 16, 2009
Thanks man
Guess I didn’t need to know that after all.
chilango2 - July 16, 2009
it's a very old Sox tradition
Going back, at least, to the days when some guy named Wimpy did games with Hawk.
elgato - July 16, 2009
Okay
Vote here
Who is more likely to come out and have a good 2nd half
Bradley or Soriano?
I think both are. We’re not talking about bad hitters here.
But if I had to pick one I have more confidence in Soriano.
puckishcubsfan - July 16, 2009
I'll take Milton, but let's hope they both do.
Why did you have to delete your Twitter account?
daver - July 16, 2009
It’s a long story but basically I was spammed. Long story I will be reestablishing a new one soon.
puckishcubsfan - July 16, 2009
Oh, I get tons of spam followers, too.
I just choose not to follow them, so I never receive any of their tweets.
daver - July 16, 2009
I block the spammers on mine.
drewishdrewid - July 16, 2009
i block 'em too
spammers… and anyone i don’t like.
Allie - July 16, 2009
They usually get banned within a week anyway
I just let them go.
Im glad you didnt block me Allie.
jkobus - July 16, 2009
why would i not like you?
you haven’t blocked me for talking about the cubs too much. :-)
Allie - July 16, 2009
If I had to pick one it would be Milton.
Milton does not swing at balls and unhittable pitches like Soriano does.
MandMexpress12 - July 16, 2009
Pick one?
I’d say Milton-he gets on base much more frequently
cubswgnrocks - July 16, 2009
Gameboard
DamonBerryhillsMitt - July 16, 2009
I'll take Milton
sure feels good to have baseball back again. Hopefully our second season goes better than our first.
gwood - July 16, 2009
Milton
elgato - July 16, 2009
Milton
healthy and low BABIP which will improve. He’s still able to get his walks which means he’s not swinging at crap.
I hope you are right on the “both” call.
socalbob - July 16, 2009
7-4 Cubs tonight.
Kansas25 - July 16, 2009
I'll vote for that.
Al Yellon - July 16, 2009
Good to see you're in a democratic mood
chilango2 - July 16, 2009
Sure, why not?
I’m in the nation’s capital!
Al Yellon - July 16, 2009
Lobby to bring Joe Mauer to Chicago...
chilango2 - July 16, 2009
Couldn't agree
more with this statement
gwood - July 16, 2009
Dream on, my friends.
Al Yellon - July 16, 2009
Can we give Soriano's money to Mauer?
Surely there’s a way you can lobby for that!
SackMan - July 16, 2009
I don't think
Soriano’s money will be enough for Mauer if he ever leaves the Twins
gwood - July 16, 2009
There are many Chicago people in D.C. nowadays
I’m sure at least one or two have some sort of power to draft a bill that decrees Joe Mauer will sign for life with the Cubs.
Too bad most of them people are Sux fans…
chilango2 - July 16, 2009
Mauer would play third, first, or catcher. I don’t see a big need at those spots. But if I were starting a team my top 3 would be Mauer, Hanley, and Pujols.
dtpollitt - July 16, 2009 via mobile
Mine would be Mauer, Pujols, and Longoria
MandMexpress12 - July 16, 2009
I would probably
take Mauer, Pujols, and Lincecum (or Harren)
gwood - July 16, 2009
I wouldn’t take a pitcher to start a team. And I’d pick Johan over Lincecum any and every dAy.
dtpollitt - July 16, 2009 via mobile
Dan Haren is really good
Allie - July 16, 2009
Apparently, Albert is, uh, stiff.
daver - July 16, 2009
I pray to god the home run derby f'd up his swing
SackMan - July 16, 2009
Him and Fielder both
chilango2 - July 16, 2009
Well, I don't want to tempt the Baseball Gods by wishing for injuries...
…but let’s just say it’s worth keeping an eye on. In other Cards news, DeRo swung a bat with no wrist pain today and may be activated over the weekend. Should be interesting to see whether his power is all there still.
daver - July 16, 2009
I prescribe a full body cast
At least until Oct. 10.
elgato - July 16, 2009
I'll buy that for a dollar.
daver - July 16, 2009
Spending the rest of the day in the car, on my way to Wisconsin for my ninth straight year of 2 days of DMB @ Alpine Valley.
My Harry Potter & the Half-Blood Bradley is forthcoming.
Dan
dtpollitt - July 16, 2009 via mobile
See ya there dan! Sorry you have so far to drive!
heine41 - July 16, 2009
Going to see DMB in KC...
in September Dan.
Kansas25 - July 16, 2009
Maybe we’ll meet up? That’s the 2nd to last show of the tour, which essentially started in February.
dtpollitt - July 16, 2009 via mobile
Sounds good.
We’ll talk on down the road.
Kansas25 - July 16, 2009
Al ...
is the trade you alluded to not happening?
elgato - July 16, 2009
Apparently not right now.
I’ll see if I can find out any more information.
Al Yellon - July 16, 2009
Lannan
Light em up!
Hammer - July 16, 2009 via mobile
I'm gonna watch the game on delay
because I can’t miss people watching over at Wrigley and to catch the first song
I’m going to the concert Tuesday. Thanks to my fiancé, if she’s lurking, for the tickets
Hammer - July 16, 2009 via mobile
Lannan's numbers are interesting.
He has a decent ERA (3.70) – and he had a good one last season, too (3.91 in 31 starts). But he’s really hittable, and he doesn’t strike guys out much (4.09 K/9, 1.28 K:BB so far this season). In fact, he’s a good example of why it’s good to look at a starter’s FIP. Lannan’s is 4.77 thus far – compare that with his ERA.
daver - July 16, 2009
Lannan's ERA has been significantly better than his FIP for his whole career.
About a run lower, in fact. His strand rate is fairly high and his BABIP quite low, which usually indicate luck, but if he keeps it up for the rest of this year it might be something like a trend. Hard to say after basically a season and a half. As Al’s summary suggests, he’s an extreme ground-ball pitcher. Maybe his pitch selection (the Internets say he has five pitches: FB, CB, SL, CH, and a cutter) makes his ground balls especially prone to becoming outs, for some reason. Or maybe he’s just lucky. There are a few pitchers whose ERA is routinely different from their FIP (IIRC Javier Vasquez is the typical example of a guy who underperforms his rate stats).
aldimond - July 16, 2009
More Lannan stuff.
He outperformed his FIP considerably at every level he pitched at in 2007 also (he had 8 starts at A+, 5 at AA, 6 at AAA, 6 in the majors that year). Not so in 2006, where he struck out a lot more batters but had a high BABIP and low strand rate. He struck out fewer and fewer batters as he moved up the ranks (one can say that with some confidence, as K rate stabilizes very quickly). I don’t have a source for GB/FB stats in the minors, but he was ridiculously good at HR prevention there. In the bigs his HR/FB rate is pretty normal, but it’s hard to imagine a guy giving up few enough fly balls to have a HR/9 around .5 with a normal HR/FB. If it’s not just luck keeping his BABIP down it might be the same thing that kept his minor-league BABIP and (presumably) HR/FB down.
aldimond - July 16, 2009
Thanks for the additional info.
Colin Wyers recommended FIP in one of his posts here a season or two ago and it makes for an interesting comparison to ERA. I find it gives a little more insight into a pitcher’s performance.
daver - July 17, 2009
Whoa there.
FIP? Haven’t come across that one yet. Quick summary?
Kansas25 - July 16, 2009
According to google
it is Feline infectious peritonitis or the Federation of International Polo.
I don’t think thats right though.
Allie - July 16, 2009
Haha...
thanks for the effort tho
Kansas25 - July 16, 2009
Well it wasn't just for you
I was really curious, myself.
Allie - July 16, 2009
FIP stands for Fielding-Independent Pitching
The idea behind it is that pitchers have a fair amount of control over their K, BB, and HR rates but not over much else. FIP is a formula that predicts ERA based on K, BB, and HR rates. In practice it predicts a pitcher’s future ERA better than past ERA does, but there are some caveats. First, some pitchers’ ERAs routinely over- or underperform their FIP. Second, another study found that pure fly-ball rate is a better predictor of HR rate than is past HR rate, so an “expected HR rate” might be a better input to the formula than true HR rate (well… most ML pitchers have a very similar HR/FB rate but there are, again, exceptions to this).
aldimond - July 16, 2009
I didn't think most fly ball pitchers gave up many home runs
Or have I been not doing enough math?
Allie - July 16, 2009
I've only read the articles, not crunched the numbers personally.
They say that for most ML-quality pitchers the rate of home runs allowed per fly ball is sort of like BABIP (batting average on balls in play): all pitchers are about the same, but the value fluctuates wildly over time. The tradeoff of being a fly ball pitcher is that you usually give up more homers and extra-base hits and fewer singles — this isn’t a great tradeoff on the face, and so most fly-ball pitchers that make it in the majors strike out a lot of batters, too.
There are a handful of pitchers that seem to give up fewer homers per fly ball. I don’t remember who they are. I think a typical number is about 10-12% of fly balls. Carlos Zambrano, who’s given up about 32% fly balls in his career, is at 9.1% HR/FB; Ted Lilly, who gives up about 50% fly balls, is at 11%. So Lilly, as a fly-ball pitcher that gives up lots of home runs, has to limit baserunners to be effective. With the Blue Jays his walk rate was pretty bad, and he gave up lots of runs as a result. Since coming to the Cubs he’s cut down on the walks while continuing to strike out lots of hitters — this means fewer baserunners which minimizes the impact of those home runs.
aldimond - July 16, 2009
Ah
thanks!!
Glad I came back to read it, very well explained. Thank you. :-)
Allie - July 16, 2009
Fielding Independent Pitching
idk what that means though
jesus christos - July 16, 2009
ok nevermind
jesus christos - July 16, 2009
Harden on the road
04/10 @MIL 6.0 innings 2 runs
04/26 @STL 6.0 innings 2 runs
05/06 @HOU 7.0 innings 3 runs
06/24 @DET 5.1 innings 4 runs
06/29 @PIT 7.0 innings 1 run
Hopefully this is a trend that will continue tonight!! Let’s get this second half started on a good note!!
Freddyd - July 16, 2009
So in other words you're saying
pitch Harden all you want as long as it’s not in Wrigley.
JFCubFan - July 16, 2009
You said Harden…and long…(snickers).
dtpollitt - July 16, 2009 via mobile
Some pitchers
Have these years where they pitch better at home than on the road and vice verca. Same as day games vs. night games.
Hopefully we’re seeing a trend where Harden is having one of those road warrior years which would be a bonus for the Cubs because we need to improve that road record
Freddyd - July 16, 2009
is randy wells injured?
i ask only because he’s not listed as being sunday’s starter
John T. Unger - July 16, 2009
my guess is because kevin hart will probably start that game sunday.
that way hart won’t start vs phillies and wells can start game one of the phillies series.
MandMexpress12 - July 16, 2009
makes sense
John T. Unger - July 16, 2009
unfortunately it does.
nothing SHOULD make sense when it involves Kevin Hart starting a major league game. Early line on Kevin Hart’s total walks. Ill set the line at 6.5 over or under?
MandMexpress12 - July 16, 2009
6.5
is that per inning? lol.. j/k
Gocubsgo1977 - July 17, 2009
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