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It's Really A Night Game, Rich Harden: Cubs vs. Reds Preview, Sunday 7/26, 1:20 CT

Rich Harden's day/night splits this year are well known, but just so you don't have to look them up again:

Day games: nine starts, 1-5, 7.38, 11 HR in 42.2 innings
Night games: seven starts, 5-1, 2.23, 6 HR in 44.1 innings

So what the Cubs should do is: turn the lights on today, even though it's supposed to be sunny most of the afternoon, give Harden sunglasses so it looks darker, wear the blue alternate jerseys (the Cubs' record while Harden pitches and the team wears pinstripes is 1-3; it's 7-5 with the alt jerseys), and reset all the clocks in the clubhouse so that it will seem to Harden as if the starting time is 7:05.

Yes, I know. It shouldn't make any difference, but for some reason, this year it does. And for his career, Harden's day/night splits aren't nearly as extreme (career day-game ERA: 3.83; career night-game ERA: 3.13). Still, splits that extreme over the course of 16 starts have to mean something.

The Tribune's real estate section today tells us that Ryan Dempster is becoming a North Side real estate mogul:

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Ryan Dempster, who currently is on the disabled list, has paid $480,000 to buy a two-bedroom condominium on the North Side, giving him a third piece of residential real estate on the Cubs' side of town.

Dempster's newly-built unit has Brazilian cherry hardwood floors throughout, recessed lighting, high ceilings, crown moldings, walk-in closets in both bedrooms, and a kitchen with an island, granite counters and stainless steel appliances, according to listing information. Other features include a large private deck and a master bath with a Jacuzzi, a double vanity and a steam shower with jets. The unit had been listed for $499,900.

Dempster is scheduled to be activated from the DL and start Tuesday night vs. the Astros. Hope he's used that Jacuzzi to help heal that broken toe.

Star-divide

Today's Starting Pitchers
Rich Harden
Rich Harden
Cubs
vs. Micah Owings
Micah Owings
Reds
6-6 W-L 6-10
4.76 ERA 5.33
96 SO 59
38 BB 50
17 HR 16
vs. Cin -- vs. Cubs

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP
2009 - Rich Harden 6-6 17 16 0 0 0 0 87.0 85 51 46 17 38 96 4.76 1.41


W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP
2009 - Micah Owings 6-10 32 17 0 0 0 0 99.2 111 63 59 16 50 59 5.33 1.62

The last time the Cubs saw Micah Owings in Chicago, he was facing Rich Harden on April 21, one of Harden's better outings at home this year. That game resulted in the first-ever homer by a Micah (Hoffpauir) off a Micah (Owings). Owings pitched a little better against the Cubs in Cincinnati on June 5, but the Cubs won that game anyway. Owings has allowed 16 HR this year, but Hoffpauir is the only player on the active Cubs roster who has homered off him... time to change that today. It may be more important to watch out for Owings' bat: he is a .294 lifetime hitter and has hit three homers this year. (His games played total above, 32, includes 14 pinch-hitting appearances, in which he's gone 3-for-14 with two doubles and a HR.)

As noted above, the April 21 game -- a night game -- was one of Harden's few good outings at Wrigley Field this season. He is 3-0, 2.95 lifetime vs. the Reds and even the dreaded Joey Votto, who is becoming a Cub-killer (10 of his 42 career HR have been against the Cubs), is 0-for-5 vs. Harden.

The Cubs are on WGN today, also on FSN Ohio for those of you who have EI. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Reds site Red Reporter.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 2:15 pm, 3:15 pm and 4 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

0 recs  |  147 comments

Comments

Good luck convincing Rich of that...
How about putting a blindfold on him for the day?
Michael Jordan once shot free throws with his eyes closed.

It just might be crazy enough to work…

I don't get to see the game because I'm traveling up for the Astros' series
I'll be nightime in China... does that count for anything?
Curley: "Hey Moe! I can't SEE. I can't SEE"...

Moe: “Why?”

Curley: “Because I’ve got my eyes CLOSED!”

Might work for Rich- nyuck, nyuck, nyuck…

Trade rumors please

I want more trade rumors like bradley for haren or who we can get for miles and heliem. COME ON JIM GET IT DONE!!!!!

you want more

disproven rumors? Ok.

Maybe Steve Stone will tweet some more baseless rumors.

::crosses fingers::

There is a special place in hell for Stone, Kraplan & Selig...
Even the demons believe in them...

…and shudder.

Well, no new rumors, but Steve Stone would like everyone to get a life.

From his Twitter account:

To all the people who believe who believe that david kaplan and i made up the bradley story—-get a life. Trade deadline rumors are not new.

stoneys a little angry
Yeah, I would say so.

good grief. Just a wee bit defensive about it, too.

Uh Steve, we have

lives. We aren’t the ones making stuff up to get attention.

Well, he continues to take shots at Bruce Miles, too.

you stay classy, Steve Stone. His latest tweet:

The giants need a hitter to make a run at the wildcard. Word out is that the nats nick johnson might fill their needs. Chase that down bruce
$HIT MY BAD MY BAD MY BAD MY BAD
no worries.

might as well make sure everyone can see Steve Stone’s classlessness right now.

What a guy. I am

so glad he’s not with the Cubs organization.

Awwww....someone called him out and now's he's defensive...

I’ve never been a fan of his, but now he’s just sounding like a 4th grader.

What

Dempster’s place does not have a bidet? Missing out on one good time.

Does anyone know if the wind is blowing out?

Because if it is, with these two homer-prone pitchers on the hill, it could be a wild game.

Dempster’s newly-built unit has Brazilian cherry hardwood floors throughout, recessed lighting, high ceilings, crown moldings, walk-in closets in both bedrooms, and a kitchen with an island, granite counters and stainless steel appliances, according to listing information. Other features include a large private deck and a master bath with a Jacuzzi, a double vanity and a steam shower with jets.

Where’s the rich Corinthian leather?

I hear it comes with leather-bound books

and smells of rich mahogany.

Zambrano HR

Hasnt Zambrano also homered off of Owings?

Jacuzzi

I thought Kerry Wood is the reason for players being banned from using their jacuzzi during the regular season?

Bold prediction of the day: Harden hits a HR and steals a base.

Lineup anyone?

Len and Bob say no DLee

That scares me, DLee never sits.....unless that disc is acting up..
He takes days off like every other starter

But the timing does seem suspicious. However, if his neck is the problem, a little extra rest was all it took the last time…

Domely
Riot
Ram Star
Foxy
Brad Stain
Sori
Mouse Boy
Over the Hill
Rich Gives me a …..

Fox!

Woo!

I love how

he doesn’t play for an extended period of time but when he does he bats fourth.

Why can;t they get him into the lineup 4 days a week? WTF?
The guy swings a good bat...
let's hope he can pick a Theriot worm-burner or two, too.
Glad Dome is

at lead off.

The Cubs cannot lose this game

if they would like to display they really are contenders. This stupid Harden-in the-daylight crap is just that. Just pitch. If he is the elite pitcher he’s made out to be — this guy needs to step up his game.

The Reds are reeling, Dusty’s head is spinning — the Cubs must stomp on this team quickly. No letdowns. With the hot Astros ahead, this is a must win.

If they lose, it'll suck

but losing a single game in July is just that…a single game in July.

I hope and think they’ll win (if they can contain Votto), but they’ll still be contenders win or lose.

Yes, and I usually don't put much on any single game this early

But given the injuries, and the problems and the adversity the team has faced all season — this one game (at least, to me) stands out as very important.

A struggling team, with Harden having ‘daytime’ problems — this is the type of game a team that has pennant aspirations must put aside difficulties and just…win.

The Astros are streaking, like the Cubs. I don’t think they can continue, but they have had a history of playing better later in the season. The Cubs have no such history. The Cubs need a sweep. No excuses.

A sweep would be terrific

But I think if every Cubs fan pre-marked “must-win” games on a single calendar, all 162 would eventually be circled. I’ll root for the sweep, but a tight game either way probably won’t kill any momentum (4W, 2L, 3W) the Cubs have going at this point.

I hope Rich (the vampire) has

a good outing today. I hope Derrek’s neck responds well to treatment so he’s not out long. If Hoff is taking his place he needs to start hitting the ball better.

Didn’t the last time he played first in place of Lee he hit a 3R HR?

How long ago

was that?

first game of the double header i think
Admittedly, I don't fully understand BABIP...

but Rich’s BABIP in day games is .368 and in night games it’s .252. So he’s definitely had some bad luck in day games.

During night games on balls hit in play its a hit 1/4 of the time, during day games its a hit almost 2/5 of the time. I think thats how it works.

It's kind of an unnecessary stat to me

A hit’s a hit… and, you have to put the ball in play to get a hit. So, just look at batting average against.

The point is on the balls that are hit in play, how many of them translate to outs.

The differences between BABIP and BAA

BAA takes into account HRs and Ks, while BABIP ignores them. Pitchers have a lot of control over strikeouts (more than just about anything else they do, in fact), some control over HRs (most pitchers have a lot of control over the number of fly balls hit against them and fairly little control over how many of those fly balls leave the yard). And pitchers have very little control over how many fair, non-HR balls hit at a given trajectory drop in for hits. So BABIP is one measure of a pitcher’s luck, where BAA measures some aspects of skill and some of luck together.

Yeah...

Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but BABIP is basically a stat that removes K’s and HR’s from BA. So, literally looking at the batting average on balls that are put into the field of play — so it’s dependant on D, to a an extent. I don’t know how useful it is, but a split that extreme has to mean something.

I think it means

He’s been better at night. I dunno though.

BABIP, for pitchers, is basically a measure of how lucky they've been.

Most major-league pitchers have similar BABIPs, and variation in BABIP from the league average is, for most pitchers, non-repeatable. For most guys it’s a measure of how well your defense plays behind you and how lucky you’ve been.

There are a handful of pitchers that are exceptions and consistently (over several seasons) average lower BABIPs. I don’t think anyone on the Cubs is one of them.

The luck doesn't translate to me....

You give up an extra base hit or a solid single… that’s not luck. There’s nothing the defense can do to make that an out.

You give up a groundball single because the runner was moving and pulled the 2nd baseman out of position… maybe that’s luck. Or, maybe that’s good fundamental baseball by the opposition.

whatever it is it for the most part isn't repeatable for a pitcher

and guy with a high BABIP isn’t significantly more likely than a guy with a low BABIP to have a high BABIP.

Whatever it is, it certainly acts like luck.

*have a high BABIP going forward from that point
That's why it's a useless stat to me
but a guy who's had a high BABIP is going to have allowed more hits and runs

and a guy who’s had a low BABIP won’t have given up much.

But part of that performance will be based on something that isn’t repeatable for the vast majority of players, and they should be expected to move towards the average in both BABIP and actual performance stats.

BABIP doesn’t tell you how good a player was, it gives you a clue to how good they will be compared to their previous performance.

There are a couple things that are important to note.

First, if I went and pitched to major-league hitters for a thousand innings, my BABIP would be through the roof. Every hitter would square up my flat 60MPH fastball. Hard-hit balls and line drives fall in for hits at a greater rate than others. Pitchers that give up line drives and hard-hit balls at a high rate are weeded out in the minor leagues.

Second, there are some expected variations in BABIP. An extreme FB pitcher will probably have a slightly lower BABIP over a long period of time than an extreme GB pitcher, because GBs go for hits at a higher rate than FBs — however, the GBs rarely go for XBHs and almost never for HRs, which is why GB pitchers are effective.

Third, variation among hitters in BABIP is often significant — it’s still considered a noisy stat, but hitters have a lot of control over their ability to square up line drives and hit the ball hard. That seems to be what affects BABIP the most. Pitchers, at the ML level where all the really bad players are gone, don’t seem to have nearly as much control over that. There are a handful of pitchers that do, and none on the Cubs.

There's gotta be a way to blame Bradley

Drops more balls with the sun in his eyes, maybe?

Bradley will hit a HR today. I have the mind of a tiger stalking its prey.

What are the odds that he walks?

I give 50% odds he walks with RISP

instead of driving in a run.

So he’s a free swinger today huh?

Walking with a RISP

Isn’t a bad thing.

It is, when you're getting paid to drive in runs...

And, instead… you’re taking walks and watching the lineup behind you fail to drive in the run as well.

How is it is Milton's fault the rest of the lineup sucks?

If there are runners on first and second, walking loads the bases. That’s good. If a hitter walked every time he was at the plate he’d be worth millions.

a team that always walked with RISP

would score infinite runs in every inning that had a runner get in scoring position.

That's true

but I’m talking about an individual hitter.

If all a guy did was walk, every time he was batting, he’d have an OPS of 1000…for comparison sake, only three guys in the NL have an OPS over 1000 – Pujols, Fielder, and Ibanez.

Milton walking is not a bad thing. Milton getting outs is a bad thing, and walking means he’s not getting outs.

but it doesnt warrant 10mil
The day-night split is from 4 starts

4 BAD days, 12.2 IP 22 ER (ERA=15.6)

other 5 days starts 30 IP, 13 ER (ERA=3.90)

so it’s a probably a 50-50 shot between solid outing, and total meltdown.

Intresting.

although 3.9 ERA isn’t exactly amazing, but its only 30 IP

Well, just in case...

Did Marshall pitch yesterday?

lol stoney takes another shot at bruce
The giants need a hitter to make a run at the wildcard. Word out is that the nats nick johnson might fill their needs. Chase that down bruce
another Stoney twit
To all the people who believe who believe that david kaplan and i made up the bradley story—-get a life. Trade deadline rumors are not new.
Someone posted that above

What a tool. Seems like he should be looking in the mirror with that “get a life” statement. Worry about your own team, Stone Pony, and never you mind what’s going on with the Cubs.

i know i feel like $HIT ABSOLUTE $HIT!
I wouldn't let

it bother you too much.

I think he's talking about Stoney...

Don’t worry your quirky mind over it.

I'm confused

How is that a shot at Bruce??

Oops

Sorry, missed “bruce” at the end of the Tweet.

Eh

He may be just joshing with Bruce. Baseball guys are allowed to have senses of humor, too.

I don't get the feeling that

there’s anything friendly aboout it. Bruce posted in yesterday’s recap…there doesn’t really seem to be any love lost between those two.

You read that whole thing?

My browser crashed when I hovered my mouse over the link…

You stay classy steve stone
Why would Bruce follow a Giants rumor that has nothing to do with the Cubs ?

Get a life Steve

Why would Steve follow

a Cubs rumor that has nothing to do with the White Sox? It’s freakin’ ridiculous.

The Score pays Stone to follow both teams

So it is his job to cover Cubs stuff too, he just needs to do it without the grudge.

But he can't

So he shouldn’t.

Its been especially bad this season

and it mostly centers around Milton Bradley. There is obviously a story there.

The Cubs I get

but why use a GIANTS /NATS rumor to take a dig at Bruce ? Really petty .

That's Stone

for you.

I hope bruce tracks i down

and finds out its as much BS as the Bradley rumor. Just to get under Stone’s skin some more.

Some rumor news

HELL YEAH!

I may be an idiot

but I don’t want Zack Duke

Reasons?
4 prospects is a lot for a guy who I don't think is that good

I’ve just never been impressed with Duke. If he was cheaper to trade for thats one thing, but 4 prospects is quite the price.

Depends on the prospects, I suppose.

Duke would be another young, cost-controlled starter. He seems like he’s coming into his own now that Jim Colborn isn’t around to mess with him anymore. He’s a young Doug Davis and could potentially replace Lilly down the road.

one does not replace lilly
Very true.

How about Lilly passing along his tips of domination to Duke?

they worked for kevin hart
Indeed they have.

“How to Take Charge and Dominate the Major Leagues” should be mandatory reading for all Cubs minor league pitchers.

i think that was for Gorz. and Grabow.

but if it’s Duke and Grabow expect much better prospects.

26 year old solid lefty...

pretty good. But, the Pirates would be stupid to trade him. They’re never gonna get anywhere at this rate. At some point, they’ve got to keep talent, and Duke isn’t making a ton of money.

Indeed.

Though if they’re looking to get Gorzelanny back to Pittsburgh, clearing a rotation spot for him may be needed.

Duke's '09 stats

3.42 74SO 34BB 1.23WHIP
His career numbers aren’t overwhelming, but he at least he now appears to be figuring things out now at the major league level. But making the deal would depend on what the Pirates want for Duke. He is making $2.2 mil this year, under team control for 2 more seasons, I believe

and I just want to say that Jack Wilson sucks
Also he is a shortstop.

So then we’d have two middle infielders playing out of their natural positions. You’re right, no thanks.

Don't you think we'd move Theriot to 2B?
That move wouldn't make any sense. Basically replace Fontenot with Wilson, a guy who hits worse.
Why wouldn't it make sense?

Theriot, as has been discussed around here ad nauseum, would be a much better 2B than a SS.

Jack Wilson is a terrible hitter.

He improves your defense, but the offense might be worse.

As long as Lou is the manager

I believe you will never see Riot play anywhere but SS.

Good Lord

If the Pirates trade Duke the fans might try to burn down the stadium. Sanchez & Wilson I get but Duke ?

Wonder who

the 4 prospects are?

Pirates have been so dumb with their trades

Maybe we can convince them Miles is a prospect.

Unfortunately, he is not exactly tearing up AAA

.231/.275/.505 3RBI 0HR

Two comments

1) Zack Duke is a good pitcher with a chance to become a very good one.

2) Interesting how the worm has turned re Stoney, isn’t it? A few years back he was walking on water and many on this board wanted him to replace Hendry as GM.

A few years ago we thought Sosa was God

Things change.

Boy, don’t they?

Cards tied with Phillies 1-1
and Julio Lugo is hitting .600 w/ the Cards.
I'm no Branch Rickey

but I imagine that won’t last.

One more

I hope if Hendry shops for a shortstop he finds a real one, not a re-tread.

Jhonny Peralta. I love him.
And I used to love

Dhon Kessinger

I STILL love Don Kessinger
Me too, DS

. . . me too

Do you remember his clubhouse nickname?

Oh noes!

They’re wearing the pinstripes! Quick, is the wind blowing out today??

The sun will be going down here soon...

Probably won’t help, but at least I can pretend it will.

Let’s just hope that the day/night game anomaly is just fluke and not a jinks.

Go Cubs!

i hope king rich has some shades on
If Harden pitches like trash today

Maybe we will need another starter so we can have a 6-man rotation that prevents Harden from ever pitching with the sun out.

hardacula?
Richferatu?

Let’s just hope we don’t have an episode of “Joey the Vampire Slayer” today

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