I know this is about a month late and three weeks or so after #1-10, but as I said, I had to move last month. I also put all my notes in a spiral notebook that I just unpacked this week. So better late than never.
I like some of the players on this list, especially players 11-15, but there's a real dropoff in quality from the top ten (or maybe the top seven) and then when you get to numbers 16 and lower, these are players I'm not confident in. Seriously, you could replace them with five other guys from the "others considered" list and I wouldn't argue with you. The system really is improving over last season, especially with position players, but it's still thin compared to most systems.
11. Brandon Guyer CF 23 years old. TN: 52G .173/.225/.268 Daytona: 55G .337/.401/.441 19 steals.
The athletic center fielder from Virgina had a strong second half last season for Peoria, so because of his age and big-time college experience, they jumped him past Daytona to Tennessee. Big mistake. Guyer was very much overmatched in AA, but once demoted to Daytona, he played like he did the second half of 2008 in Peoria.
It's clearly troubling that Guyer failed in AA, but if he had played the whole season in Daytona we'd all be very excited about his numbers with one exception. He hasn't hit a home run yet for Daytona and only had one for the Smokies. Guyer had 14 in 88 games last year for Peoria, so the dropoff is puzzling. Here's hoping it's just a fluke, because the doubles are there in Daytona at least.
The positive sign is that Guyer has managed to stay healthy this season after missing time the past three years, both with us and at Virginia. He's the type of player who would run through a brick wall to catch a popup, which isn't really a compliment when you remember than nobody actually can run through a brick wall.
His favorite player in high school was Aaron Rowand, and Rowand is likely Guyer's ceiling as well. They've got the same disregard for their bodies as well.
12. Logan Watkins 2B 19 years old. Boise: 51G .327/.391/.388 9 steals.
Watkins was a Kansas high school kid that the Cubs threw a ton of money at last year to keep him from going to Wichita State. It was a risky move as Kansas isn't exactly known for producing a ton of major leaguers, but so far Watkins has done nothing to make the Cubs regret the risk. So far, he's been providing Boise with a solid glove and a good on-base percentage. The power isn't there yet and at only 5'11", he's not likely to ever be a big power threat, but I can see him developing to where he can hit double-digits in home runs in a good year at the major league level. This is also just a personal observation, but he seems to have a really good baseball smarts for someone so young. He's developed an instant rapport with his DP partner Hak-Ju Lee, which isn't real easy since Lee doesn't speak very much English, and I'm pretty sure Watkins doesn't speak Korean.
The lack of power so far is a little concerning because the Northwest League is a pretty good place to slug, but he is young and really hasn't filled out yet. Peoria will be the real test for him next season.
13. Kyler Burke RF 21 years old. Peoria 112G .306/.394/.494 11 HR, 12 Steals.
If this hadn't been Burke's third season in the Midwest League, he'd rank a lot higher. But he's seems to have mastered the league on the third try and he's still only 21 years old, so he's not old for the level. The prospect we got from the Padres for Michael Barrett is a big, left-handed right fielder with a very good arm and some excellent power potential. He leads the Midwest League in doubles and has made a major leap in his ability to draw walks and get on base this season. The sky's the limit as far as a ceiling goes for Burke--he's got the athleticism, size and skills to be a major star. As Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus wrote about Burke last week: "[I]f some of his 37 doubles [now 38] in just 386 at-bats start to turn into home runs, look out" Now he'd just better not take three tries to master the Florida State League. . .
14. DJ LeMahieu SS 21 years old. Peoria 17G .294/.347/.368
The Cubs second round pick this June was the one of the hitting star of the College World Series for champion LSU Tigers. He hit .444 in the series and had a big double in Game 1 of the finals against Texas that tied the game in the ninth, a game LSU went on to win in extra innings. Unfortunately all of those collegiate heroics meant that LeMahieu got a late start on his professional career. But he's doing fine in limited action in Peoria.
LeMahieu is a big guy with a line-drive stroke. He tends to hit everything from gap to gap, so unless that changes, he's more likely to be a doubles guy than a home run guy. At 6'4", he's likely to big to be able to stay at shortstop. If he can handle second base, great, but if he needs to move to third base he may not have the home run totals you want there. As you would expect from a middle-infielder who went to a major program like LSU, LeMahieu has solid baseball intelligence.
15. Ryan Flaherty 2B 22 years old. Peoria 110G .261/.326/.448 16 HR
Almost everything I just said about LeMahieu you could have said about Flaherty last year when the Cubs took him as a supplemental first rounder. Big SS. Check. Major college program. Check. Good baseball smarts. Check. They said the 6'3" Flaherty was too big to stay at short, and while he still does get some starts there, milb.com lists him as a second baseman and he's been playing a lot of third base as well. The good news on Flaherty is that the power is developing and his 16 HRs puts him in the top five in the Midwest League. He's even got seven steals (although in 12 tries.)
The batting average has been disappointing for Flaherty, of course, but the power is there, he draws some walks and his strikeout numbers aren't too bad. Hopefully his bad batting average in the Midwest League is just a result of some bad luck but if it isn't, he might end up as a Dan Uggla-type player: a big middle infielder with a low batting average but decent OBP and a lot of power. I can think of worse things to be.
16. Chris Archer RHP 20 years old. Peoria 23GS 5-4 2.78 ERA 94IP 103K 57BB
A lot of guys from Peoria. Maybe that's why they've been winning so much lately. Archer, of course, came over in the Mark DeRosa deal, which means maybe my prospect list has too many Chiefs and not enough Indians. Anyway, Archer was the guy who was the furthest away with the most potential of the three pitchers. Archer throws hard, has a nasty curve ball and a change-up that's good enough to keep hitters from sitting on the other two pitches. He's been practically unhittable this season, as opposing hitters are batting .201 against him.
I shouldn't have to tell you what the "But" is here with Archer. His control is a major problem. However, those 57 walks in 94 innings is an improvement over last season, when he walked 84 in 115. That gives me hope that he'll continue to improve on his control.
17. Jeff Beliveau LHP 22 years old. Peoria 23G 7GS 5-3 3.55 ERA 83.2IP 101K 41K
Maybe Beliveau should be ranked ahead of Archer, since he striking out more batters and walking fewer. However, since he did a lot of that in a relief role and he's two years older, I'll rank Archer one spot higher for now.
As you can see, the Rhode Island native Beliveau strikes a lot of people out. He's got a fastball in the low 90s with a curve and slider/cutter, at least that what he called it. Like Archer, hitters in the Midwest League have trouble making contact as they are only hitting. 212 off of him. While he started off the season in the bullpen as the closer, a lot of his relief appearances were actually "handcuffed" to Aaron Shafer, who the Cubs had on a strict pitch count because of his injury history. So some of those relief appearances were more like starts. Still, Beliveau could end up as either a starter or a reliever in the major leagues: he's certainly an interesting potential closer.
Of course, he has the same problem as Archer. He needs to walk fewer people. At least he does, in fact, walk fewer people than Archer.
18. Tyler Colvin RF 23 years old. Daytona 32G .250/.326/.357 Tennessee 64G .279/.310/,460 9HR
Oh so frustrating. Most times you just want to write him off as a prospect altogether, but other times you see that tools and the determination that made the Cubs take him in the first place.
Colvin had Tommy John surgery over the off-season and pushed himself to get back on the field far sooner than anyone had predicted, albeit he had to DH for Daytona because he couldn't make the throws from the outfield yet. Once his arm was sound enough, he was promoted to Tennessee. Colvin has worked on his walk totals to the point where they're now just "bad" instead of being the Pope of the Church of Rob Picciolo. (Look him up, kids under 30.)
The other problem with Colvin is that he's looking like a "tweener." He wasn't able to stick in center field and he hasn't shown enough hitting, either in OBP or power, to handle right field on the major league level. He's been showing some power lately, he's going to need it to make the majors.
Its entirely likely that Colvin ends up as a good fourth outfielder: a guy who can play CF in a pinch and is a solid, left-handed bat off the bench. He's still got a chance to be better than that.
19. Welington Castillo C 22 years old. Tennessee 79G .210/.257/.356 10 HR
No one has fallen further this season than Castillo, who's had a miserable year at the plate. Worse, the reports that I'm hearing is that he still isn't making progress with his defense. He still has a great arm and can shut down the running game, but the rest of his defense isn't getting any better, or so I'm hearing. Pretty much everyone last off-season had Castillo as a top-ten prospect in the Cubs system and a lot had him as a top five. At this point, it's only caution that has me still listing him in the top 20.
If you're looking for positives, the ten home runs suggest that his power is developing, as he only hit four last year. And it's hard to write someone off who showed so much promise on the basis of one lousy season. Geovany Soto is having a lousy season too, and few of us think he's done as a ballplayer. But if he doesn't start to turn it around soon, he may not only find himself off of the prospect lists, he could find himself out of the organization.
20. Tony Campana CF 23 years old. Peoria 18G .283/.345/.340 11SB Daytona .279/.331/.309 48SB
I really struggled with who to include as the 20th pick. When I originally drew up the list, Josh Harrison clocked in at 19, so I had to replace him. There may have been better choices that this tiny little speedster, but I decided to go with him anyway. I probably won't have him in my end of the year top 20, although he'd be in a top 30.
Campana has only one skill--he's really, really fast. He may also cover a lot of ground defensively, but I haven't really heard one way or the other and I haven't seen him play personally. He's got no power and at 5'8", he's not likely to develop much. I'd compare him to Juan Pierre, but looking at Pierre's numbers, Juan was a lot better in the minor leagues. He does compare favorably to Scott Posednik at the same age and level, but Posednik is a lot bigger and was able to add at least some doubles power as he moved up the ladder.
But he does hit for a decent average and he gets on base enough to steal bases: 59 of them so far this summer. He's been caught 14 times which is a good ratio, but I get the impression that a lot of those caught stealings were pickoffs. He should be able to cut that number down as he gets better able to read a pitcher's move.
The system doesn't have a lot of blazing fast players (Let's see, there's Lee in Boise and then there is. . . hmmm) and so I'm putting Campana here to call attention to his 59 steals as much as anything. I'd love to see him get a September callup just so he could pinch run, but I know there are about four or five reasons why that's not going to happen.
Others considered: Iowa Cubs Darwin Barney SS , John Gaub LHP, Jeff Stevens RHP, Blake Parker RHP. Tennessee Smokies Marquez Smith 3B Tony Thomas 2B. Daytona Cubs Dan McDaniel RHP, Peoria Chiefs Chris Huseby RHP, Jeffry Antigua LHP. Boise Hawks Su-Ming Jung RHP
0 recs | 13 comments
Great others!!
Not sure of what the quality will be after number 20. I’m going to bet of the ten that you mentioned that 7 or 8 get to the big leauges and maybe 2 or 3 will be of some quality and thats when you have depth!!!! Thanks for the post Josh!!!
Slamdog - August 15, 2009
of note
Several reports this year have suggested Castillo’s defense has improved and he’s a bit more consistent. Add in his bad luck early, and while I fully believe you have to perform, I’m less disappointed with his season than I was a couple months ago. Defense is going to be the reason he gets to the bigs, and it looks like he’s made the strides that were expected. Cubs will have Castillo/Clevenger both needing to be protected this upcoming offseason. I don’t love the idea of protecting 4 catchers, but we just might need to do that (some other names that are Rule 5 eligible would include Blake Parker, John Gaub, Jeremy Papelbon, Alessandro Maestri, and Colvin). If I had to protect three, I’d go Castillo/Parker/Gaub in some order. Here’s hoping we can protect a couple more, Maestri/Clevenger probably next on my list.
Guyer did have some bad luck in Tennessee. Not enough to excuse the poor performance, but he was overswinging. The Guyer at Daytona has been smarter about spraying the ball around. While football and baseball skills and IQ don’t correlate directly, Watkins football IQ was a good indicator coming out that the kid has a good head on his shoulder, for sports, and he has shown an advanced approach. I could be wrong, but I’m fairly sure that last year, Kansas had a solid HS baseball class.
I’d put Flaherty in the top 10, despite being down on him earlier in the year. As O_O and others have noted, Flaherty’s glove has actually been solid at short in Peoria this year. No one really expects him to stick there, with SS fairly loaded in the Cubs system in the lower levels, but that’s been a pleasant surprise. He was working on his swing earlier, but statistically, he had some poor luck this year. His park and luck adjusted line, on the year, would be .295/.357/494. Certainly, performance matters and is somewhat undervalued by folks that focus too much on statistics, but considering that Flaherty’s gotten hot of late, I think we’re seeing his season long swing work come together a bit, and I think I’m a fan. Last year, I found it ridiculously when some folks here suggested Flaherty should be ranked high based upon his draft status. He’s had the performance this year to merit a good standing.
I’d also take him over LeMahieu. LeMahieu, like Flaherty, can play short, but as most saw this year at LSU, he’s just not that fluid. He plays a real solid 2nd base, has seen some time there this year, and he finished the year at LSU as their 2nd baseman next to Nola. While the age difference does help LeMahieu a bit, Flaherty’s current power matters, and LeMahieu has to adjust his swing to generate more power, otherwise he’s a Ryan Theriot to Matt Murton-esque hitter in a big, lanky body, a valuable asset sure, but not great. Now, a lot of folks think he can hit for more power, but he never showed it at LSU, and he’s going to need some time.
To be clear, the big problem for Archer isn’t directly his control, but rather, like Ceda, his mechanics. The Cubs managed to fix Ceda’s mechanics a bit in his last year here … can they do it with Archer? He has a … interesting delivery. The same issue exists for Beliveau a bit. There’s a reason I joked about Beliveau as Rich Hill 2.0. He doesn’t really have closer stuff, as the fastball is fringy, but he has an excellent breaking ball, and the cutter is inconsistent right now. There’s a reason why I wouldn’t read too much into K’s at Peoria just yet – Gaub proved himself this year … Beliveau still has to show his stuff can play at higher levels. A plus breaker can rack up K’s in the MWL, and both Archer and Beliveau have that breaker. The issue I also have with Archer, a smaller issue, is that he hasn’t advanced. He came out of HS as a kid with a low-mid 90’s fastball, plus curveball, “developing” change, and mechanical issues. He’s made incremental improvements. Another note – Gaub and Beliveau profile similarly, but Gaub has equal, if not better stuff.
One other note – few systems really have a lot of blazing fast players. The Cubs do well enough in the speed department. As we’ve seen under this regime, the system is becoming more diversified in the types of players we are adding, but overall, the athletic ability has improved. In terms of plus speed, Guzman and Valdez both have that. None is on Campana’s level, but both guys have that plus speed. There’s also several guys with Sam Fuld-level speed, good but not great.
toonsterwu - August 15, 2009
Ryan Searle
Also should be on a top 20 list. I imagine some other posters will comment on that as well, but considering the age/level/performance combination, considering the sink he gets, and considering the improved breaking pitches, he’s one of the more intriguing prospects in our system. I’d probably plop him as a top 10 guy, coming around to Raisin and O_O’s point of view.
Of note, that wasn’t meant to be overly critical of LeMahieu above, but was pointing out why I prefer Flaherty over him now. A case can be made for LeMahieu as a top 10 Cubs prospect.
I’m a Dan McDaniel fan. His overall numbers have collapsed though. In saying that, part of it is hugely bad luck with balls in play, where from June and on, the BABIP has been .400 or greater. He’s still sporting a healthy 3.67 FIP on the year. I do wonder if innings became a factor. What he does need to balance out is the use of his secondary pitches. He gets good sink, so the sinker gets used a bit, but he does have a good curveball, a 4 seamer that can run into the mid-90’s, and a showable slider.
toonsterwu - August 15, 2009
I debated long and hard
over LeMahieu vs Flaherty. In the end I went with LeMahieu, but it was really almost a coin flip. I think you could put both in the top ten, but I was being more conservative on them.
I’m just not as high on Searle as you are. I don’t like his K/IP and K/BB ratios and the makeup questions bother me too. He’s still young at 20, but he’s not that young. The GB ratio is awesome though. I still have an open mind on him though and I’m hoping he changes my mind.
You do make several good points. And these lists are all about education, engendering debate and fun. No one had Randy Wells on their top lists last season.
Josh Timmers - August 16, 2009
Searle
is, I think, the 8th youngest player in the FSL. I don’t know what the current average FSL age is, but earlier this year, he was close to 2 years younger than the league age average.
Do I personally love Searle? Actually, no. I’ve never been high on him, as some folks know. Certainly, one can over-analyze the statistics. Someone could easily note the 4.08 FIP this year. But after reading the mid-season reports, which suggested this was a young kid that didn’t react too well to teasing from older players, I’m less apt to think that the makeup questions are as serious as they made it out to be. When you factor in that he’s in a new country, and still mentally and physically maturing, and that he’s shown an improved fastball velocity this year and the curve has taken big steps as well, along with that he’s had to throw the change more than he probably should of, to develop it, I just think it’s hard, considering his age, to leave him off a top 20 list, when he carries one of the best starting groundball rates in the entire minors.
In saying that, everyone judges differently, and as always, the only value in rankings is for discussion purposes.
toonsterwu - August 16, 2009
Aussie baseball
something you may find interesting about aussie baseball, 1 season per year, the kids here play about 16 games per season a 3 week break at xmas, with 3 rounds of finals if their team makes it, that equates to about 20 games per year! they train once a week, and only get extra training if they make representative teams. limited coaching, an x pat american if they are lucky. Of course if you are good enough you play A grade and they play twice a week, but obviously if youre a pitcher you get to throw every Sunday. (once a week, with 1 pen during the week) they dont live and breath it, and it is only on tv in oz if you have pay per view tv streamed in from the States. i like reading you comments and i get alot of info from you all, but for these kids going over from Australia and elsewhere are so far away from their home and families, it is a totally different life over there, it would be a huge adjustment, some of these kids going over would be learning so much that they haven’t been taught or told about in Aust. Considering everything i think young Searle is holding his own in the company of so many talented young men, (taking into account his age and background).
the best thing to happen to Aussie baseball is the academy that is held here every year from June to August funded i think by MLB. it gives our young developing players a chance to showcase and develop their talents. good to go and watch, it also gives scouts a chance to see all of them in the 1 place.
balladownunda - August 23, 2009
Maestri would merit a Rule 5 pick?
That’s a bit of a stretch for me. He might get selected, but I wouldn’t see him lasting a season. Even with ‘injuries’ like Patton. I’d keep the fourth catcher.
tim815 - August 15, 2009
Maestri
Raisin has noted, not sure if here but at least elsewhere, that Maestri’s velocity has increased this summer to where he’s in the mid-90’s more often. Add in the plus slider (arguably still the best in the system, although Jay Jackson is one that could compete – Cashner’s lacks consistency right now, but he has the movement), and he’s the type of guy that a team might be able to stash away, as we did with David Patton. In saying that, I’d put Maestri at best 4th, if not 5th, on the chart, definitely behind Parker (I still like his fastball better, I like his attacking mentality and he has a bit better control, while also carrying a very good slider), Gaub (LOOGY, but considering our lefty charts, he could fill a necessary role and prevent having to spend say, 3/12 mil on a LOOGY), and Castillo (improved receiving skills and has the upside, Clevenger may be more consistent, but with Koyie likely back as the backup, I’d put Castillo ahead).
toonsterwu - August 15, 2009
okay
Didn’t know about the mid-90’s heater. we may have competition for the 40 man roster for the first time in awhile. About time for BLou to step in and disparage our system.
tim815 - August 15, 2009
Gaub
Great stuff! Thanks for all your hard work on the rankings.
I would have to put John Gaub in the top 20….maybe even top 15. Before his shoulder injury, he could consistently throw in the 96mph range from the left side. It seems like his velocity is gradually coming back. From what I’ve read, he has a nasty slider and an average change. Obviously, control is an issue (and not a small one); however, Gaub seems like a guy with a lot of upside. He has been mowing down people in the minors this year and has lots of strikeouts per innings pitched.
DonS81 - August 15, 2009
The full list, and some thoughts...
For those who have forgotten, the full top 20 goes as follows: Vitters, Castro, Cashner, J. Jackson, B. Jackson, Sharkbait, Hak-Ju, Carpenter, Clenvenger, Dae-Eun Rhee, Guyer, Watkins, Burke, LeMahieu, Flaherty, Archer, Beliveau, Colvin, Castillo, and Campana.
I think your rankings are quite good. I have been looking forward to the second half of the top 20 since I saw the top ten. I have to give you props for putting Campana in the top 20. Speed does not go into slumps, and he can fly. I think he could make it to the big leagues as a Dave Roberts style of player, and the Cubs need to add more speed the their team at some point. He isn’t ready now, but in a while I think he could help out. However, as with any critique, I need to offer a differening viewpoint or two.
I would have liked to have seen Gaub in the top 20, but I am glad he got at least some recognition. There are some guys who I wanted to get at least some sort of recognition, most notably Casey Coleman. I’m not saying put the guy in the top 5, but at least give him some credit in the other considerations category. He leads AA in wins, and also leads the Cubs entire organization in the same category. He doesn’t leap out at you, but he is a winner, and that is something that cannot be taught. He can add a few miles to his fastball and improve his other pitches, and I really believe the guy can make it to the bigs as a starter. Maybe not a one or two guy, but an innings eater, who gives you quality starts as a 3-5 starter.
Others who I think warrant at least moderate consideration:
IOWA: Atkins, Caridad, and maybe even Lambert.
TENN: Adduci
DAY: Cales, maybe Dolis
PEO: Lake, Buchter, and to a lesser extent, because he is too old, and should be in TENN next season, Bibens-Dirkx. That guy has an awesome name, by the way, and has dominated the MWL.
BOI: Rusin and Ha, even though both have very small sample sizes.
Austin Kirk and Brooks Raley, I think, will also be good prospects, but there is no way to tell that now, because Raley has not played, and Kirk has thrown 2 innings.
Concerning the Rule V eligibility, the Cubs have 2 open roster spots, and spots I either expect or hope to see open are Harden(expect), Heilman(hope), Miles(hope) and Chad Fox(if he doesn’t retire now, he never will). I don’t think they fill all those spots, but maybe a few. In order, I would go: Gaub, Castillo, Maestri, Parker, Clevenger, Papelbon, Colvin.
Sorry this post was so long.
Mulhollandmania - August 16, 2009
Gaub
was the guy that Campana beat out. I didn’t like his walk totals and the limited upside of being a reliever (although I agree he’s a lot better than a LOOGY.)
Most of those guys I guess I considered too. I took a good look at ABD because I’ve been very impressed at what he’s done so far in Peoria, but I decided I just hadn’t seen enough at this point.
Lake is someone I had high hopes for coming into the season, although I have to admit it was sometimes hard to keep him straight from Starlin Castro in my mind. But boy, have those two gone in different directions. Lake is still young enough to turn it around, but his strikeout numbers and K/BB ratio are just so ugly, I couldn’t even consider him.
Thanks for your input.
Josh Timmers - August 16, 2009
Coleman
I have him in my top 20. Tail end of it, but he’s there. He has a good head on his shoulder and plays to his abilities, something that more talented guys in our system still have to learn. What he really needs is for that slider/cutter he’s mentioned in interviews to develop. If so, he could have the juice to be more of a mid-rotation guy than an end of the rotation guy. Certainly, he got a “bonus” on my list as a result of his “readiness”, and he’s likely slated for AAA duty next year, likely part of the mix of “next arm up”. If I ever get the time, I’ll post up my top 30.
As for some other names on your list -
Bibens-Dirx has been around the block. I wouldn’t read too much into his dominance of Peoria just yet. Ryan Buchter has LOOGY potential, but it’s hard for me to see him as definitely better than Luke Sommer or Dustin Sasser right now. It’s hard, for me at least, for situational guys to make a top 20 list unless they have dominant stuff and/or are “ready”. I’ve made an exception for Gaub, sliding him up from the top 25 to the top 20 on my own list. I don’t think Gaub is that much better than, say, a Casey Lambert though. Lambert’s sort of been lost in the mix – still has good LOOGY stuff. Caridad/Atkins are probably on a similar level, and both are end of the rotation/rubber arm types. Caridad probably has a bit more juice out of the pen, where he was more consistently in the mid-90’s in the fall, whereas Atkins hasn’t shown that ability yet. I like Jim Adduci a lot, but he’s a fringe prospect. He’s had a nice power surge in the summer (June was a bit fluky, whereas August was a solid all-around month). He’s basically similar to Fuld. The type of guy that might make a decent bench OF, able to play all three spots, but the type of guy that will need the right situation/opportunity to emerge. Cales has a decent pen arm, but there are so many pen options in our system from the righthanded side. Dolis has some good life, but let’s see him get the control/consistency. Lake has to put it together first. Rusin and Ha are both fair to consider. Rusin is one of the top 5 lefty starting potential arms in our system and could move fast.
With how Kosuke has played, I wouldn’t be surprised if Reed Johnson is gone next year, creating another spot.
toonsterwu - August 16, 2009
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