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Bleed Cubbie Blue

Not-Traded Harden Loses Strike Zone; Cubs Lose 16th In Last 24 Games

Maybe the Cubs should have traded Rich Harden.

After breezing through the first two innings last night, striking out four (although throwing an alarmingly large 33 pitches), Harden completely lost touch with the strike zone in the third inning. He doubled his pitch count in that inning alone, throwing another 33 pitches, issuing three walks and allowing a key two-run single to Cub-killer Carlos Lee. C-Lee drove in four runs and now has 47 RBI in 53 career games played at Wrigley Field.

The Astros held on to beat the Cubs 5-3, and the faint Cub playoff hopes dimmed even further. I won't give up until mathematical elimination -- and that's still quite a way off -- but obviously, things don't look very good. Since August 4, when the Cubs beat the Reds in Cincinnati to go a season-high 57-49, they are 8-16 and the Cardinals are 18-5. That's both a serious decline by the Cubs and an impressive run by St. Louis; only the Yankees at 18-6 are close to the Cardinals' record in that time frame.

This is a collapse not like the 1969 team, but more comparable to 1973, when the Cubs were 48-33 on July 1, eight games in first place, and then went on an 8-25 (yes, that's right, eight and twenty-five) skid that put them 56-58, five games out on August 8. I think this team is better than the '73 team, the last of the Williams/Santo/Jenkins/Kessinger/Beckert group that had run out of gas by then; I hope this year's team has one last run left in it.

Star-divide

Many of you have made comparisons between the 2009 Cubs and the thoroughly unlikable 2004 bunch that blew a sure wild-card berth in the last week of the season. I think the more apt comparison for 2009 is the 2005 team, the one that seemed poorly constructed from the beginning (Jim Hendry getting fooled by Jeromy Burnitz' big year in Colorado, signing him, expecting the same sort of production), and suffering injuries to key players (Nomar Garciaparra, Mark Prior) without having suitable backups. Remember how Dusty Baker, after giving Neifi Perez over 600 plate appearances and 136 starts, said, "Neifi saved us!" To which the response was, "From what?" On August 2, 2005 the Cubs stood at 54-52, four games out of the wild card lead and, as today, behind four other teams. They proceeded to lose eight games in a row, and by the time the carnage was over on August 29, had gone 8-17 and were out of it.

This team, again, I believe to be better than that one, but time is growing short, and they're not going to win many games leaving runners on third base with less than two out, as they did last night when Kosuke Fukudome couldn't bring Derrek Lee home after he had reached second on a dropped fly ball and gone to third on one of Aramis Ramirez's three line drives to Michael Bourn. The only positive from last night was, again, the work of the bullpen, who kept the team in the game. Aaron Heilman again threw two solid innings, and along with Kevin Gregg and John Grabow combined for four shutout, three-hit, six-strikeout innings.

All they can do is go out and win tonight, win the rest of the games on this homestand and try to sneak back into things. There was a fall-like chill in the late-August air last night; hopefully, that will not be an omen. And if the Cubs do fall out of it as their 2005 counterparts did, let us hope ownership and top management doesn't fool itself into thinking they will fix things as they did over the winter of 2005-06. The 2006 season, as you know, was a disaster. If 2009 isn't going to end up happily, at least let's have some hope for 2010.

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Comments

It's tough to watch
I briefly turned this game on when the score was 5-0

I immediately turned it off, knowing the Cubs would not come back. I said the Cubs should have traded Harden and Heilman and I’m not going to back down from that. This team has imploded like it has so many times in the past, but I can’t blame Hendry for at least trying to make a run at it. The Cubs have a better chance at the Wild Card with Harden than without him, but that assumes this offense has what it takes to score runs.

It's clear the South Siders have the better GM
Maybe the Cubs should have traded Rich Harden.

No maybe to it. Stupid decision not to trade both him and Heilman. Now Hendry will tempted to resign him and he won’t be getting a paycut. I like Hendry but his player allegiance is getting old. In that position you have to make the hard decisions.

I'm not so sure...

…Hendry is going to be the final decision on whether to sign Harden or anyone else for that matter. At least, this is what I hope is the case!

Mr. Rickett’s, please observe the soft spots, and don’t hesitate to put an immediate plan in place to fix.

Really ?

It does not appear the Twins were even that serious. We get two good draft picks for Harden so whatever was offered had to be better than that. The South Side GM made two VERY bold moves to save the season and both flopped. Now Peavy should help NEXT year but no clue on Rios.

I agree

Kenny Williams a better GM? His moves have not been great, he took on a ton a payroll and they have actually played worse than the Cubs lately.

We get 2 Draft Picks

If we roll the dice and offer arbitration, which won’t be a paycut. I’m guessing 1yr 10-12 million. Not a smart move IMO. Heilman should have been dumped just because.

1 year for $10 mill

would be a great price for Harden.

Seems like a pretty decent gamble to me.
If he can give you 26-27 starts...

…I would agree.

Considering his history and the Cubs recent spending history, I predict the Cubs will have serious pause with this decision.

whatever richie did over the winter on his shoulder seems to be working
I'm sure

We can get more than 8 wins somewhere else for 10 million bux.

W/L is not a good way to judge a pitcher.

He’s made a high number of starts, and his numbers, especially in the second half, have been very good.

Not $10 million bucks worth but maybe he can learn how to get guys out on something other than a fastball someday

his secondary pitches were total garbage last night. I still think he’s a gamble.

Like last night's?

Harden would be a good deal at 5-6 million but in no way is he worth anywhere close to 10-12 million.

I guess

you never make mistakes, never have a crappy day.

ironically, Harden will probably get offers HIGHER then $10 million a year. But if that’s the case, we get draft picks. Again, there’s no reason to have let him go at the waiver wire, and plenty of reasons to keep him.

I wanted Harden for the record

But there is just too many question marks with Harden. Can’t pitch in day games, pitch counts, health risks etc. Not a smart move. I wanted to resign Demp and Big Z for the record. I regret that now too.

There's plenty of maybe to it.

You don’t trade away players for nothing – no matter where the team is in the standings. If Hendry couldn’t get anything decent for Harden, why not hold on to him and see if they can get the draft picks via an arbitration hearing. Heilman is inconsequential at this point.

you don't give up premium players

without a good return.

Heilman is not premium
No, but Harden is.
Yep, and those tow draft picks will be great to get if he doesn't accept arbitration
Right, it's cheap domestic stuff.

Oh wait…you’re talking about the pitcher. Nevermind.

I, like most,

just do not understand what happened. How was it thought that these off season moves made us better. I did not like Fonty playing a full time second, I was and still am ok with Bradley because dispite what has been a bad year in terms of PR, he hasn’t been the worst thing ever. It does suck more that we essentially traded DeRosa for Aaron Heilsuck and Aaron “Swing at the first pitch and ground to second” MIles. The loss of Wood for Gregg was awful as well since you can take the 10.5 game lead, go back and see where Gregg blew the game for us and realize that the division lead could be 5.5 and the wildcard just 1 game.

Then to top it off, we had to watch the Cardinals get better mid season. They got DeRo, they got Holliday, they took a chance on Julio Lugo. We took a chance on BJ Ryan and Jeff Baker, and although Baker has been good, your telling me that having Lugo wouldn’t have helped?

That is what makes this year frustrating is that we had to go make all these changes to a 97 win ball club and now Lou can’t manage his way out of a paper bag. Again, between Miles, Heilman, Lou, and Gregg I bet we can find all the loses we need to be even in the wild card at the very least..

Lugo wouldn't have made a difference.
I guess I look at it as

what was the risk of trying to bring him in. Miles was awful, maybe we could have traded Miles to BoSox for him. Crap for Crap. Just Lugo is hitting a lot since coming to the NL. Was worth a look and the Cubs didn’t.

I can't imagine why the Red Sox would have wanted Miles.
They did want Duncan

Thats All I am saying LOL

Fonty never played full-time second.
And this season was an argument for him not to play full time

I like Fontenot and I think he’s a good option off the bench. I’d say he could go full time if he hit around the .240 clip and better left-right splits. He hasn’t shown that at all.

He's had an awful season - of that there can be no doubt.

I’m just so sick of hearing how he failed as a full-time second baseman when he really never got the chance. I’m not guaranteeing Fontenot would have succeeded if Aramis hadn’t gotten hurt and Lou hadn’t stuck Mike at third base. And I’m not even saying the LBR should ever be considered for a full-time role again. I’m just tired of hearing him being called a failure for something he never really got the opportunity to do.

Changing defensive positions is a poor excuse

You-Know-Who formally of the Cubs and indians never had a problem hitting while changing positions. Zobrist in Tampa Bay players a new position everyday and seems to hit fine.

Fontenot failed as a hitter this season.

You-Know-Who was an established utility player.

Mike Fontenot is still struggling to find his place in the major leagues. And I’m not necessarily using the position change as an excuse. I simply think it’s inaccurate to say he failed as a full-time second baseman when he never really was a full-time second baseman.

You know who failed as a full-time player? Ronny Cedeno. He started 130 games in 2006 at his natural position and was God awful. Mike Fontenot was never afforded that opportunity and may never be again.

Ok forget full time 2b

he was given a chance to be a full time player and sucked

No, he's merely sucked as a utility player.

Fontenot has started in only 53 games this season. And, yeah, I know I’m splitting hairs here. I may be more disappointed in LBR than I am in any other player this season. (OK, maybe not more than Geo.)

You can also look at it like this

When Ramirez went down, Pinella looked at Fontenot and said, “Son, you’re my guy.”

And Fontenot didn’t deliver.

Sometimes, you get asked to do jobs you didn’t think you’d have to do. Job still needs done and the employers will find someone else who can.

We’ve got a bunch of second basemen and Fontenot is not the top of the list.

If he wants to keep coming to the ballpark and keep getting paid to do it, he ought to do some work at 3B in the offseason.

I agree, actually.

In fact, I was thinking earlier today that Fontenot should see if he could snag a spot in winter ball as a third baseman. His likely future does appear more as a utility player than a starting second baseman, so he’d be well-served by refining his skills at third. He’s already pretty well-established as a good defensive second baseman, at least according to UZR.

I said he failed as a hitter

Which he has

Nice recap, and thanks for the Dusty quote on Neifi...

…after another loss I appreciate the humor in that.

There are enough good players on the roster to be competitive in 2010, but for me too early to have be overly optimistic or pessimistic. Hopefully, Soriano gets healthy and his hot streaks return.

Sort of like Car 54

Josh77, where are you?

I need my minor league wrap!

I had forgotten why I didn't want Harden here long term

Thanks for reminding me Rich.

I've never forgotten why I wanted Carlos Lee here long term

in lieu of Soriano.

huh?

I almost could have predicted Harden sucking last night. The uncertainty about being traded, the constant speculation. Harden has been a pretty good pitcher for us, especially in the second half. He’s only been here for a year.

He's still a huge injury risk

Don’t let the contract year health fool you. He’s a great pitcher, but getting in bed with him long term concerns me. The Cubs have gotten burned a ton with injury prone pitchers already.

the Cubs

have done a pretty good job of keeping him healthy. He’s specifically said this. I still have no problem giving him a 1 or 2 year contract that’s mostly incentives.

No thank you

The last thing the Cubs need to do is increase payroll.

Why?

Why should we care if the Cubs spend? They are going to place tickets at the max market price allowed no matter. If they cut expenses don’t think they’ll do anything besides pocket the extra $$$…

I ask this seriously… would people be less proud of a WS if the impression was it was ‘bought’ like the Red Sox and the Yankees before them?

The last thing the Cubs need

is to get significantly worse. Harden is clearly a health risk. He is also the most likely lights-out pitcher the Cubs currently have. If you cut him, are you committing to a .500 (or less) season next year? What quality pitching do you replace him with, and at what cost/risk?

I don't see

how with the possibility of Z and Dempster both regressing further, we can give him up.

That kind of deal is fine with me

It’s the Jim Hendry 4 year 45 million NTC deal that scares me.

Ricketts is a good enough businessman that he'll probably have a meeting with Hendry about this sort of thing

I’m not particularly in favor of owners interfering with every aspect of baseball operations, but Ricketts needs to ensure there’s a change in culture there. A no-trade clause here and there isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it’s these gigantic deals combined with no-trade clauses that can be problematic if you need to clear some money off payroll. This would force you to cut more productive players (not naming names, but it ends with -osa) in favor of players who aren’t producing because no one wants their contracts or they don’t want to be traded.

This is why I think...

…Ricketts will have someone in place to oversee what Hendry is doing (and it won’t be Kenney).

If there is one thing that will hold this team back from competing over the next 2-3 years, it is the high amount of dollars (no trades etc.) that are tied up in players (some of which have not performed to their contracts) you either can’t move, or will cost you big money to move.

If I’m Ricketts, I take that to heart and say something has to be adjusted here so we don’t keep going down this path. I believe the adjustment will be someone making the final decision on all this stuff who will be over Hendry.

I'm with you here.

I’m not sure Sandy Alderson is the right guy, but they definitely need another voice.

I'm sure this is something...

…Ricketts has been investigating now for several months, and you just hope he gets the right guy.

The reality is, they can’t keep the status quo regarding overall baseball decisions, that would be a bad bad decision.

This is why Hendry needs a baseball person above him

Not an attention-whore business man.

Hendry has time to turn his personal fortunes around

This season stunk to high heaven, but it doesn’t guarantee that it’ll be the same in 2010.

Hey, they went from the worst team in the national league

to winning the division in ’07 (with MAJOR changes)

So anything can happen. What I fear is Lou going belly-up. Would Hendry fire him if the season starts out badly next year?

If the General Manager of a MLB team needs a baseball person above him...

…he’s not much of a General Manager, is he?

Obviously whether or not that applies to Hendry is a whole ’nother discussion, but my point is the GM is your baseball man. At least he ought to be.

Given the challenges facing the Cubs and Wrigley Field, I think the current model is a good one (baseball GM, business/growth/community President) – it’s more a matter of whether Ricketts thinks he has the right guys in those roles or not.

Models...

…are one thing, but the important part are the results.

If your not getting the “bang for your buck” and there has been an issue with poor decisions, you have to fix it or decide to have those same foks making important judgements that will impact you now and in the future.

Exactly! we have enough bad contracts to plunk down more on another high risk guy.
I doubt it...

..some GM will throw more money and years at him.

And it could still be the Twins

Two years, $20 million.

Hendry is likely to offer Harden arbitration
stop making excuses

For bad play.

no one

is making excuses. Stop looking for intent where there is none.

I reviewed the game threads. You certainly have a hard-on for me. Perhaps you could seek in-person companionship on your own, perhaps at your local drinking establishment.

That was out of line
feel free to think so.
DeLee's HR was nice to see

He’ll finish with very impressive HR/RBI numbers.

But nothing came together this year. There was no “magic,” for lack of a better phrase. I remember Soriano’s grand slam to CF to win a game at home, but not a lot of standout moments where you could feel the guys become a team. I also think it hurt a little to see St. Louis get DeRosa and Holliday while we stood pat.

Too many injuries, too much inconsistency, too many bullpen failures. They’ve looked flat more often than not this season. This certainly doesn’t look like a team that is back-to-back division champs. Can you believe we were actually in first place earlier this month? Holy crap….

The Cubs were in first in late July/early August because no one in the division was taking charge...

The Cards have. 20-6 for the month. That’s how division titles are won.

Ramirez was coming off the DL

and we had every reason to assume the Cubs would put a winning streak together. They had a fantastic July but a horrible August. When the time came for them to take charge, they laid and egg. But give the Cardinals credit for playing great baseball.

Yep. The Cards went out and won it.

To be fair, if they had the equivalent injury losses on their roster that the Cubs have had to deal with this season, it might be a different story. I’m not saying the Cards didn’t have injuries, just not to the equivalent players and production.

That being said, they kicked butt at just the right time.

Hats off to them.

Harden

In his defense after talk of being traded for 3 days and not knowing if you are going to pitch in Chicago or not, has to weigh heavily on your mind. Let’s see what the next start brings before we say he has reverted back to bad Rich.

Len and Bob said it was Oswalt’s first win against the NL Central all year. Wow, I couldn’t believe that.

My only hope is a win streak. I hope it starts tonight.

So, in the third inning, it came back to him?

Hey! I was almost traded!

Harden knows his contract. He knows what could possibly happen. He also knew that if he WAS traded, it would be to a team with a better shot at playing in October.

Thankfully, he’s not using that as an excuse, because it is a damn lame one.

Of course, we’ve had a lot of that this year…

Too cold. Too hot. Media hates us. Fans hate us. Clouds in our eyes.

6 walks and 5 hits allowed

doesn’t mean he had a stellar night with consistency. His OVERALL focus was not as it has been the last few starts. That I hope we can agree upon.

I will not accept it as an excuse

That’s life in the big leagues. He knows he is one of the few pieces that could be moved and he knows he has value to other teams.

If his focus wasn’t there, that’s on him, not on the team.

ok

don’t accept it then.

So, what’s different now?

Nothing.

The same amount of difference your whining about how we're still in it has made
you can characterize it any way you want.

but I thought Klingons didn’t surrender.

Coward, is it?

There is no honor in bashing your head into a wall
I think it's now 11 out of the wild card

if you add up the teams in front of the Cubs

But it's not 11, or did I misunderstand

According to Mlb.com its 6.0 games out and 27 for elimination

I think mapmaker is saying the

cubs are 6 behind the leader, x behind #2, etc. Just because they make up 6 games against Colorado, they’re not in first unless they made up ground with all the other teams.

Games back is only a perfect number if your the team in second.

Thanks

Sorry i didn’t explain

and if I were doing that

then you might have a point . But recognizing that the season still has a chance? That’s very Klingon.

White Sox given up...

can’t understand why the White Sox have thrown in the towel being only 6 games out. The Cubs are even further out and playing not much better than the Sox. Maybe the Cubs should concede and look forward to 2010.

I think Hendry is in damage control mode

With the Cubs technically still in the Wild Card race, it looks bad to practically throw in the towel. By all rights, he saved his job by not throwing in the towel.

Damage control is right...

…and lucky for him he has 3 more years on his contract.

Hendry will be back next year (in some role), the question is whether he will have the same decision making power he has had the last several years.

Except that we're farther out than the White Sox!

Standing pat looks dumber as each day goes by

Sometimes it's better to say, "I went for it."

How many times were you in a situation that you figured would probably end badly, but decided to give it a shot anyway? At least you can say, “I gave it a shot.” It’s a small consolation prize at the end of the day.

That's true but sometimes you can cut loose a couple of veterans

without actually throwing in the towel and end getting a useful piece for future seasons. Believe me, I didn’t want a White Flag style trade but hoped to pick up a couple of prospects for a veteran or tow.

who would you trade?

please be realistic.

Gregg, Harden, Heilman, Fonty, Miles
what, exactly

are you going to get for Gregg, Heilman, Fontenot and MILES?

If they ask you

We could get Bay, Utley, Santana or any of the other superstars in the league because clearly our guys do no wrong.

whut?

once again, I ask you — go do speed-dating or something. It’s all very flattering (albeit creepy) but I’m really not interested.

I'm here to discuss baseball

That’s all

begins with l

and dens with d…

Late round prospects

What do get by keeping them? I’ll tell you , jack shit!

Ron Santo: And if this is your team, why does it go?
Veteran: We didn’t come here to fight for them!
Young fan: Home! The Cardinals, the Rockies, the Giants are too many!

Ron Santo: Sons of Wrigley! I am Ron Santo.
Young fan: Ron Santo is seven feet tall!
Ron Santo: Yes, I’ve heard. Kills men by the hundreds. And if HE were here, he’d consume the Cardinals (and Mets) with fireballs from his eyes, and bolts of lightning from his arse.

Ron Santo: I am a Cubs fan! And I see a whole army of my countrymen, here in defiance of over a century of futility. You’ve come to fight as Cub fans… and Cubs fans you are. What will you do with that freedom? Will you fight?
Veteran: Fight? Against the Cardinals? The Rockies? The Giants? No! We will run. And we will live.

Ron Santo: Aye, fight and you may die. Run, and you’ll live… at least a while. And dying in your beds, many years from now, would you be willin’ to trade ALL the days, from this day to that, for one chance, just one chance, to come back here and tell our enemies that they may take our lives, but they’ll never take… OUR FREEDOM!

And then when the first warrior fell... one voice could be heard above the din

“JEEZ!”

Heilman and Harden

Does anyone know who claimed Heilman and what they were offering? and what were the Twins offering for Harden?

The Giants were apparently the claiming team on Heilman.

I don’t think we’ll ever know what the offers were.

Given Heilman's value with September callups on the horizon,

could the Giants have claimed hoping the Cubs would just release for contract cost and not offered much at all?

Alright, my optimism may now officially be broken.

All it needs now is a little change in ownership and some positive new owner sound bites.

I’d like to hear:

1. “We want to build a long term winner”

2. “We have room in the budget to add talent”

3. “Defense and baserunning are the undervalued of the 5 tools”

Boy

I agree with Baserunning and defense. Problems is where do we get speed, the players can get better at baserunning, however the Cubs need better threats at stealing bases.

First rule is don't sign a base stealing threat who can't get on base with his

own bat.

That really is the tricky thing about speedy guys.

It seems like so many of them really can’t hit (or even walk) very well.

True

getting basestealers is tough, Crawford is a rare exception and that guy who plays second for the Orioles.

This team will be hard-pressed to recover before 2011-2012

Saddled with insane OF contracts this team will not be able to engineer the makeover it needs to dump ill-fitting players. And the rotation, while “deep”, is made up of a bunch of high pitch-count guys (Dempster, Harden, Zambarno), one true consistent ace who is prone to giving up the long ball (Lilly) and one promising rookie you HOPE can be counted on again next year (Wells).

They will enter the offseason with:
1) No real closer
2) No real catcher
3) No real second baseman
4) A questionable SS
5) No real leadoff hitter
6) An overpaid and underperforming outfield

This is NOT a good team. It has several good players, but 2010 will feature many of the same players with the hope this year was an aberration. It may have been, but there will be many, many crossed fingers and question marks when 2010 opens.

I may agree with the 2011-2012, but disagree with a couple of your assumptions.

1. Setup/Closer will need to be addressed. Marmol may be the solution for one of the two roles, but needs to work in the offseason and remainder of this season.
2. Catcher is fine with Soto/Hill, provided they are considered defensive catchers and slotted for the 7/8 spot in the order and not relied upon for HR’s and RBI"s. Soto does need to stay off my diet of beer and doughnuts and work on core strength.
3. Major offseason need, unless SS acquired. Theriot is a perfect solution for 2B. Not sure if Fox can do it, but why not try. Worst cast Fox can back up LF, RF, 3B, 1B, 2B and catcher. Heard Trammel is supposed to work with Fox, better get Trammel working with him now as he will probably get some manager interviews.
4. Theriot is servicable and cost effective. Doubt SS is addressed.
5. Both Fukudome and Bradley are excellent leadoff hitters. I say put Bradley in the spot and leave him. I believe he would outproduce his contract in that role.
6. I cannot abide the length of the Soriano contract, but he may have one more decent year if his knee can get healthy. The organization needs him to get healthy and start raking next year. The time to trade him is in a hot streak.

If everyone is back, Harden’s and Heilman’s money needs to go into the bullpen and locate another backup option for third base.

The 2B/SS problem could be solved....

… by trading Bradley to the Rangers for Michael Young. Young plays SS, Theriot moves to 2B. Or, toss Theriot in the deal and leave Baker the regular 2B; he seems decent enough.

I like Theriot's bat too much to want him traded

He’s one of the few people on this team this year that actually hit decent with runners in scoring position. If you want to move him to second, do it.

But he's our salesman!

Or something.

I like option 1

we get an upgrade at two positions and a chance for an upgrade at three.

Why on earth would the Rangers do that?
Because they owe Young a LOT of money.
I be shocked

if the Rangers move Young. Granted he makes a ton of coin, but they would want more that Bradley/Theriot. They would want arms.

Give 'em one, then.
Young > Bradley, but

Bradley/Theriot > Young

Maybe Shark wants to start for Texas and will waive his NTC? To dream.

So the Rangers let MB walk last offseason...

And now they’re going to give up their best hitter to get him back?!

Makes no sense at all.

Agree

Why on God’s green earth would they want Bradley back, especially for the face of there franchise, not happening.

actually the rangers were willing to resign him

but the cubs offered more money for him

Hilarious

I love when I bring player’s up, only to get flamed by many. Then a few months later low and behold Al brings it up after he disagreed with me wanting him. Love it!!!!!!

So you suggested trading for Michael Young?
Yes

Before the season and was flamed. Met with all sorts of criticism for even bringing it up.

well.

you did bring Michael Young up in three comments — one in May of 08, two in October.

http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2008/5/15/517856/glendon-rusch-now-a-free-a#6137649
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2008/10/15/635509/2008-postseason-interlude#9388270
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2008/10/20/637547/building-a-cubs-champion-i#9489819

I dunno about “met with all sorts of criticism”, tho. One person suggested that Young wasn’t good under pressure.

There was a post soley on Young

I will try to find it. I remember it clearly. Right after that I started a post about the idea of us getting Ryan Howard and got flamed because he was a superstar etc. Right after that I compared Dunn’s numbers to Howard’s in another post an had some of the same people tell me Dunn and Howard are very comparable hitters. Same people turned right around and said Dunn sucked.

I brought up the idea of us reaquiring Maddux last year and got met with stiff criticism even by Al Yellon himself. Only to have him a few weeks later bring up the same exact idea.

Excellent response.
Catcher is not even close to being fine

and we paid for it all season.

Depends on what you want. Are you looking for a solid receiver who calls a good game,

can keep baserunners in check, and can provide some contribution to the offense?

Soto let us all down because we expected more Johnny Bench, less Damien Miller.

Yes

I expected Soto to become more like Piazza than Bench, but yeah.

All I know is we have to have something better next year

Yes, Soto let us all down in a big way. Koyie is a great backup but we need a solid everyday guy back there.

you don't give up on

a ROY just because he has a bad season. You give Soto a chance to earn his job back.

I agree.
I agree, too, BUT....

… he has got to earn it, not just have it handed to him, and it starts with him showing up in camp next spring in shape.

I don't think

anyone will disagree with that.

Soto

has a lot to prove. He was a very unproductive minor league player until 2007. His slugging % was around .400 the major of his career. Hope he proves me wrong, but he appears to be a one year wonder.

if he doesn't earn it

then he doesn’t earn it. But that would be a major disappointment.

I agree and I never said

to just hand it over to him. He has to show he wants his starting job back. Hoepfully playing winter ball will get him back into shape.

You can look at it both ways...

…but in trying to stay objective, the window has probably closed in this core group of players.

For next year to be a playoff team, you have to hope for the following:

-Zambrano keeps his head on and stays healthy (I give that a 50% chance)
-Lee having another good year (75% chance)
-Ramirez staying healthy (50% chance)
-Soriano rebounding (50% chance)
-Marmol finding the strike zone (50% chance)
-Soto finding some motivation (50% chance)
-Fukudome repeats this year (75% chance)
-Bradley recovers his old production (75% chance)
-Wells will repeat 09 (75% chance)
-2b gets solidified (50% chance)
-Dempster steps in up a notch (50% chance)

Of those 11 items, the Cubs probably need 7-8 to go their way to be a playoff contender in 2010. In the end, some will workout and some won’t and you just don’t know what other problems creep up in the interim. You could also have a pleasant surprise or two (like Wells this year), but the bottom line is this; this club has a lot of ? going into 2010, that you have to HOPE go in the right direction. For a club that has invested as much money as they have in players, you shouldn’t have that many ???? that you are hoping go your way!

You're being very optimistic in your 11 point rundown

You’re missing a bullpen upgrade, i.e. Gregg and Heilman out; bring in a closer. (35 percent chance). And also a SS upgrade (10 percent chance).

Some points to make

Just about this entire team slumped. I’m not as gloom and doom as you in the offseason though.

1) [b]No real closer:[/b] This is a sore spot, but I think it could be solved through free agency.
2) [b]No real catcher:[/b] Catcher is not traditionally a power position anyway. I’d rather Geo put up his 2008 numbers, but if a catcher can handle the pitching staff like a professional and field his position behind the plate, I’m not going to complain a bunch.
3) [b]No real second baseman:[/b] This really depends on what they want to do. Theriot can be forced to play second and you wouldn’t lose his bat.
4) [b]A questionable SS:[/b] See above. I think you could let Andres Blanco handle the job if you shift Theriot to second. Blanco’s shown plenty of competence in the middle infield.
5) [b]No real leadoff hitter:[/b] That’s false. Lou just refuses to leave Fukudome at leadoff, where he has produced very well. Lou’s obsession with breaking up left and right handed batters in the lineup prevents him from leaving Fukudome at the spot. Observed statistically and by watching the games, it’s madness not to leave Fukudome at leadoff and to have kept Soriano at leadoff for as long as he did.
6) [b]An overpaid and underperforming outfield:[/b] The one thing I like about baseball is that these things come in cycles. Last year’s MVP candidate can be this year’s disappointment. The Cubs mishandled the situation with Soriano’s knee this season. If Soriano was put on the DL earlier this season, he would have been a big help down the stretch. It’s not as if Soriano was a big help during this year’s June Swoon. Milton Bradley is due for a better year and Fukudome has rebounded nicely from 2008.

is NOT a good team.[/b] I disagree. The 2009 Cubs are a good team collectively because they’re above .500. If they finish above .500, they’ll still be good. The problem is that they’re not [i]very[/i] good. It’s the very good teams that make the playoffs. Collectively, the 2009 Cubs aren’t very good. They’ve show what potential they have to be very good in spurts, but nothing beyond that.
Posting at a bb at the same time does not make for good posts here

I used bb code again.

I agree

with almost all of this. If Blanco could get to mediocre numbers with the bat, we could have an excellent shortstop on the field for years to come.

If all we want from catcher is defense and handling the pitchers

Then keep Hill and trade Soto while people still think he’s worth a bag of beans.

Again -- we were expecting the Salesman
That’s false. Lou just refuses to leave Fukudome at leadoff, where he has produced very well. Lou’s obsession with breaking up left and right handed batters in the lineup prevents him from leaving Fukudome at the spot. Observed statistically and by watching the games, it’s madness not to leave Fukudome at leadoff and to have kept Soriano at leadoff for as long as he did.

Bradley was supposed to be that LH guy. But now he’s apparently only a #2 hitter.

Blame that on Hendry

He also signed Soriano to be the CF if you remember. That said, Fukudome is going to bat at any spot you ask him to bat. You’re just better with him at leadoff right now and having your batting order start L-S.

whut?

Bradley isn’t “only” a #2 hitter. He’s the #2 hitter. Since Lou wants to keep the lefties apart, that means he moved Fukudome.

This has nothing to do with Bradley. The LRLR thing is on Lou.

Yes

I agree with almost all of this, too. Not so black and white as some posts, where any weakness will sink you.

That really isn’t how baseball works. The really good teams are .600 and above. The good teams are .500 and above. The bad teams are .400s. It is really only one or two games of every ten that determines whether you are good, bad, or ugly. You need to constantly keep tweaking what you have, to try to raise your level to the next category.

And that is baseball from the 50,000 foot view.

I woke up this morning...

and looked to see what had happened overnight.

I felt ill:

But then I remembered that it ain’t over yet, even if 34 games is not a lot of time and there is little room for so error: It can still happen.

I will be overjoyed when and if they make the playoffs…
I will be happy if they make a real effort and narrowly miss…
I will only be dejected if the team just gives up and doesn’t try…

I would be happy with some effort

While I think they’re still trying, I hope they don’t just give up like so many Cubs teams in the past.

A nice winning streak would really help. Please Cubs, that’s all I’m asking.

I don't think it's mentioned enough....

…but John Grabow has been excellent since we got him. Now 12.1 scoreless innings.

The rest of the night? Blah. Unfortunately,the past week has shown what this team is: A .500 ballclub.

Seconded.

Grabow has been very, very solid.

While not a true LOOGY, he is an effective left-hander. I think you keep those.

Yep, gotta keep Grabow
To be fair everyone in the BULLPEN did their job last night.
Which brings us to the following point:

There’s always a breakdown in the workload in this team; if the starting pitching is solid, the bullpen fails; if the offense is solid, either the starting pitching or the bullpen fails… you get my idea.

I'll paraphrase my Mom

A lifelong die-hard and the reason I’m a Cub fan:

“The Cubs rarely seem to put it all together. For years they either had pitching OR hitting, but not at the same time.”

Agreed

One day they put up 17 runs against Pittsburgh and the next day they can’t buy a base hit.

Pittsburgh

Anyone who was impressed by that victory should have had their heads examined.

The offense has been mostly MIA this year...

but 17 runs is 17 runs. If the talent is there, they should be able to show it more consistently. Especially considering we led the league in runs scored last year. But DeLee is our only offensive star this year. Riot is hitting .290 but he’s been slumping lately. And we’ve been horrible with RISP this year. Depressing, really…

Getting a ton of runs one day and getting shut out the next happens to all teams, not just the Cubs.

It’s the law of averages in baseball.

It only happens to the Cubs

And I’ve got the numbers right here. Somewhere…

Well, I can understand why it SEEMS that it only happens to the Cubs,

but I follow the Tigers and it happens to them too…

Call it "finding a way to lose"

and the reality is, it’s a symptom of a team that’s just not good enough. Too many weak links. On a strong team, there’s enough talent that it goes the other way — different players step up to win games. When your status is “questionable” everywhere, there isn’t enough step-up to consistently win.

Indeed.

Grabow is worth offering arbitration to in the off-season.

I doubt he will accept arb

and I doubt the Cubs will offer him a multi year multi million dollar contract he can get on the open market. I would LOVE to keep him but with a lot kids in the pitching pipeline and the need to save a few million where you can I expect he will be gone.

Unless the Cubs have complete faith in Gaub

There isn’t another LOOGY in the system, as far as I can see (unless we’re counting Marshall/Gorzelanny).

Grabow in arbitration would be cheaper than a lefty reliever on the open market. Even a contract extension would probably be more cost-effective than shopping among the free agent, lefty relievers.

Um the point is he will not ACCEPT arbitration

He has the numbers to get a multi year, multi million dollar contract. Personally I think he is great but you are going to have to make some financial considerations into these things and I expect the Cubs to be on a tight budget. Hey if they have an extra 4 million to give him for two years great but I doubt it. Lots of teams are going to want an effective lefty reliever.

In this economy, it's no guarantee that players decline arbitration.

Grabow may take arbitration, knowing that at the worst, he’s guaranteeing himself seven figures instead of becoming the 2009 version of Will Ohman.

Ohman had personal issues

I am pretty sure Grabow will get some real nice offers as an FA though I can’t remember if he would be considered type A or not. Mets are DESPERATE for a decent bullpen arm as are many teams. I don’t see him taking a year when he could have a multi year deal.

Unless he takes a year in an attempt to get an extensionwith the Cubs.

That’s what I could see him doing. But like you said, there are plenty of teams who will need pitching. Should be an interesting decision.

There isn’t another LOOGY in the system, as far as I can see (unless we’re counting Marshall/Gorzelanny).

i hear that john gaub guys pretty good

Closer

I’m wondering if Grabow is being groomed to be the team’s next closer. Nothing is for sure, but if it works they sign him. In the free agent market for closers somebody should be available and likely at a higher price than Grabow. They would have to have the confidence in him to go with a multi-year offer . There is always a risk, but I think with a lefty who can be a LOOGY some team would eventually pick him up and think they can fix him, ala Scott Eyre. So, he would get signed without an NTC. In a way this is silly because very little of what the Cubs do ever comes off to me as having a plan much less a plan that I just made up. They would need another lefty in the bullpen if they still want a LOOGY.

Marmol hasn’t earned the closer’s role. He might straighten it out by next season. Leave him in setup or consider him a reliever who needs a change of scenery and who somebody can straighten-out. He is somebody who should still get a return.

Doubt it.

Grabow’s numbers don’t scream “closer.” He doesn’t really strike a lot of guys out and his FIP over the last three seasons (including this year) is over 4.0. I see him as just a solid ’pen guy.

Agreed.

Grabow has quietly gone about being a very effective arm out of the pen.

Sorry for the OT, but where does Thome fit in with the Dodgers?

I’m baffled at this trade.

the 2009 version of Matt Stairs.

Lefty masher off the bench. Can DH in the World Series if they get there.

Gotcha, thanks

I thought they were gonna platoon him with Loney at 1B or trot him to the OF.

nope, in fact Thome apparently called the Dodgers when he was told they had claimed him

and told them he really can’t play first anymore

That's a gentleman for you

I hated how he played for the Sox. I really like Thome.

Must be

nice to have your team making moves to strengthen their team for the WS. We get to brag about Jeff Baker and John Grabow.

My Dodgers fan friend is pretty angry

He calls it a “hose[poop] pickup.” And apparently, Brad Penny is now going to the Giants.

Seems like a bit of an overreaction.

I think having a lefty power bat off the bench and in the lineup as a DH could help the Dodgers.

MOST EVERYONE WAS ALSO....

First Base ?? Limited Outfield ?? Pinch hitter ?? Clubhouse leader- Yes

Wh..what?
See lists above I think
What was wrong with First Base?
...Harden Loses Strike Zone...

Whoever finds it should give it back to Rich.

It's not looking good folks

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

To be very clear

It will take 24-9 (89 victories) to even hope for the Wild Card and 25-8 to have a good chance and 26-7 to probably cinch it.

All for the priviledge of getting pimp-slapped by the Dodgers again.

Don't assume the same thing would happen two years in a row.
That's true...

I guess we could still end up playing the Phillies in the first round and get pimp-slapped by them.

or the rockies
Or we continue the supposed hot streak deep into October...
Kind of like the 2007 Rockies did.
I will give props

to Heilman. Two games now he has pitched very well for us. Very diappointing game last night. Where was the offense?

Damn Cubs!

The msm says 12 Cubs were claimed off waivers.

Why did we only hear about the H&H boys? Who were the other 10?

We musta yanked them back quietly
Len said last night

that H & H names were leaked and weren’t suppose to be. None of the names should have been made public.

Well, why were those the only two names leaked?

Somebody had an agenda here, and it should be made known.

Leak probably didn't come from the Cubs

are else more names would have gotten out.

If I’m the Giants, and I want Heilman for free, I leak it so the Cubs feel the pressure to release him without compensation.

If I’m the Twins, I leak it to let the fans know we’re going for it by signing Harden.

There were only a few logical teams that would have claimed any player. It probably wasn’t tough to figure out.

your quote...
Since August 4, when the Cubs beat the Reds in Cincinnati to go a season-high 57-49, they are 8-16 and the Cardinals are 18-5. That’s both a serious decline by the Cubs and an impressive run by St. Louis; only the Yankees at 18-6 are

And what happened after that date? Lou decided to blow the lineup up after the 4-0 loss to the Reds. Dome out of leadoff Bradley to #2. And most importantly, Riot to leadoff. The Cubs were 16-10 with Dome at leadoff from 7/4 to 8/7. And even with the lack of RBIs from Bradley inh the 5 spot, he was producing at a 275 457 420 877 clip. And what more important the lineup was producing 5.04 runs/game with that lineup. I’ve said it before, Lou screwed the pooch on that move, I pinpoint our downfall on the lineup change.

And even worse, with all of our struggles, Lou continues to run out the same basic lineup every day. Just maddening.

+1 KaliCub

never understood that move by Lou.

Lou feels very strongly about...

…having a left-handed bat break up the middle of the order. He feels pitchers can dominate the outside corner otherwise. So with Milton appearing most comfortable batting second, Kosuke’s pretty much his only option with Fontenot crashing and burning this season.

I’m not necessarily defending Lou – as I see Dome and Bradley as excellent top-of-the-order hitters, and I’d probably take my chances with a all-righty middle of the order just to have those two working deep counts and getting on base regularly. But that seems to be what Lou believes.

I agree with Lou

about having that lefty to break up the righties. But why move Bradley lower when the lineup was working overall? Okay, granted that Bradley wasn’t driving in the runs from the 5 spot, but was always getting on base and making the lower end of the lineup that more potent. And also, the lineup change was also the point at which Sori stopped hitting.

Plus Dome was seeing 4.45 pitches /AB at leadoff vs Riot 3.17/AB (as of last week)

I liked

the lineup with Bradley in the 5 spot and Dome leading off much more then the current one with Bradley in the 2 spot and Dome in the 5.

yep, me too. Plus, heres the punch line, the present lineup is not working.
sort of funny that he knee-jerked the lineup changes after one loss

but we’re 8-16 since, and he won’t change it back.

That Lou Pineilla……what a maroon

I swear, this lineup stuff makes him look a lot like Dusty Baker.
I just wish

He would stay with a lineup day after after day instead of changing it constantly.

He has stayed with this current lineup

that’s my problem with Lou.

problem's not the order

The problem is the hitter’s themselves.

Are you one of the lineup means nothing then?
No not at all

but I think guys get accustomed to who they hit in front of and behind. For example some hitters hate when the guy in front of them gets on base and and does alot of moving around at 1st base i.e taking off and stopping. I just like a pretty steady. Just my preference that’s all.

Okay, just trying to understand where you wre coming from.

But he has basically settled on Riot, Bradley, Lee, Aram, Dome, Sori for the last month and that hasn’t worked.

My problem with Lou has been that he hasn’t made enough moves or has made the moves too late. (ie Sori out of leadoff, bench Soto, etc) so I guess I just disagree with your earlier contention that he just needs to stay with the same lineup instead of changing it. I haven’t seen it changing too much the last month.

I don't mind him changing it

There are times he changes it daily. Your right now he won’t change it at all. This whole season has been one of the weirdest ever for me.

Frustrating for me too

he has not managed the same way he did the last couple of years to me.

Lou+Dusty = Lousty
FTW

You just blew my mind.

I liked that lineup too.

I think most did.

That was bizarre

And about that time he started playing Miles more and pinch-hitting him in key situations.

Just add those dumb moves to the long list this year.

I didn't understand that either.

I remember you saying something to the effect of “Take a pitch, Theriot” at the game at Dodger Stadium.

I pretty much say that every game but Riot just goes up there hacking away.
i agree

but fukudome batting first and gameboard batting 2nd would be interesting too

and meanwhile theriot can practice taking a pitch

I'm not in favor of that

but if it means getting Riot away from the leadoff spot then I’d go for that…anything is better than what he’s trotting out there.

1973 and 1977 Collapses

The difference between the 1st and 2nd halves for both of those clubs was striking.

  • 1973: 48-33 (1st Half), 29-51 (2nd Half)
  • 1977: 51-30 (1st Half), 30-51 (2nd Half)

It amazes me that the 1977 team was at the 62-42 mark and went 19-39 the rest of the way to finish at .500. That 51-30 half-season in 1977 is still the best “half-season” the Cubs have had since the first half of 1969.

And 1969 still hurts the most
Haven't you heard? They play too many day games
"Ain't No" Excuse for 2009 (Pardon the Grammar)

I never took that “day game” excuse seriously, either, but those 1973 and 1977 teams played all of their home games during the day. This 2009 team will have had the benefit of 30 home night games. It “ain’t” the day games that are causing the Cubs’ problems.

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