As Alfonso Soriano's numbers tailed off during May and June -- now we know why -- the chorus calling for him to be dropped in the batting order got louder and louder. Finally, in early July Lou listened, and on July 4, Kosuke Fukudome was installed in the leadoff spot. The Cubs lost that game 11-2, but Fukudome led off virtually every day from then through August 7, a little over a month's worth of games. During that time Fukudome started only three times without batting leadoff (one game batting third and two batting fifth).
From July 4 through August 7, the Cubs went 18-12 (17-10 with Fukudome hitting leadoff), and Fukudome hit .299/.405/.495.
Then, for some unfathomable reason, Lou decided that the Cubs would be better off with Ryan Theriot leading off. Fukudome has continued to produce in the 20 games since then -- going .290/.372/.507, virtually the same OPS -- but the Cubs have been 8-14 since August 7, and even though Theriot has hit .303 in the leadoff spot, his OBA is only .333 in those games (he's started 20 of them), meaning he's gotten on base at a much poorer rate than Fukudome, over a similar stretch.
Since August 7, Milton Bradley has been installed as the #2 hitter (hitting third once), and is hitting.317/.423/.512 in 22 games (21 starts). That's outstanding production. I believe if Fukudome had remained the leadoff hitter, with Bradley hitting behind him, that would have produced a ton of baserunners for Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez to drive in. Theriot should have been dropped to eighth in the lineup. Clearly, it was working -- the Cubs were winning.
Why do managers do this? It's not the only reason for the freefall, but it has to be a significant factor.
Site note: Josh77 wanted me to let you all know that his internet service is out -- that's why there was no minor league wrap this morning -- he hopes to have it back by tomorrow.

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The Cubs have already defeated Brian Moehler twice this year and his ERA, in three 2009 starts vs. the Cubs, is 13.97. Seriously, this is a pitcher the Cubs should beat handily. (I know what I'm risking by posting that.) Moehler will be 38 in December and one of his teammates during his 1996 September callup was... Cubs bench coach Alan Trammell. Derrek Lee has used him as a BP pitcher (7-for-17, 2 doubles, 3 HR, 7 RBI).
Randy Wells has started twice vs. Houston this year, beat them at Wrigley Field on July 29, and has not allowed them a run in 14 innings, and only 10 hits, all singles. Seriously, this is a game the Cubs should win easily.
For the third consecutive day, WGN will be carrying tonight's game. I know it shouldn't matter, but the Cubs have a far better record on CSN than on WGN (see records on left sidebar). It's also on FSN Houston. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.
Baseball-reference.com game preview
Please visit our SB Nation Astros site The Crawfish Boxes.
Overflow comment threads will post today at 8 pm, 9 pm and 9:45 pm CDT.
Discuss amongst yourselves.
0 recs | 141 comments
Between the WGN jinx
And Al’s “We should win this one” jinx, I’m assuming the Cubs will lose 11-0.
Juuust kidding – go Cubs!
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
Glad you said it
and you’ll bear the brunt of the flaming.
j/k
It’s pretty unreal how superstitious humankind is. I find it fascinating.
chilango2 - September 1, 2009
Speaking of which...
I’m wearing the giveaway shirt from my birthday (Saturday). Cubs did a good job on that particular day. :-)
Chris Dobbertean - September 1, 2009
Superstition is a byproduct of our analytical minds
But then, so is the computer you’re typing on.
You take the good, you take the bad, you take ’em both and there you have…
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
tootie?
N Oakley - September 1, 2009
Jo?
N Oakley - September 1, 2009
Ms. Garrett?
N Oakley - September 1, 2009
Rawr.
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
What About Blair?
memphiscub - September 1, 2009
...
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
Wouldn't be into me.
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
Wouldn't be into her
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
Wouldn't be into her
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
dont they cancel each other out
Cubs win by 7.
cozmotaylor123 - September 1, 2009 via mobile
Let's just win.
mrcubsfan - September 1, 2009
Wells
He has been one of the few pleasant surprises for the Cubs this season.
memphiscub - September 1, 2009
Hopefully he gets his Internet back
I enjoy the job he does.
cubsluver22 - September 1, 2009
+1
memphiscub - September 1, 2009
August 7th the beginning of the downfall.
I think Lou changed the lineup was become he heard about the lack of RBIs from Bradley in the 5 spot and wanted to move himand his OBP in front of Lee and Aram. But then Lou had to have that lefty in the 5 spot and naturally he chose Dome to put there and that left Riot at leadoff.
It had reason, it wasn’t totally out of left field. But the big thing is that it hasn’t worked!
And whats worse is that when he moved Bradley, which many people were calling for, the team was scoring at a 5.03 clip/per game. Sometimes the fix is worse than the problem itself.
KaliCub - September 1, 2009
Actually, the downfall began on Aug. 5
Going into that night’s game, the Cubs were 9 over .500 and 1/2 game ahead of St. Louis. The Cubs lost that night to Justin Lehr.
What else happened on Aug. 5 that could have started the downfall? Hmm, I wonder….
Jody Jody Davis - September 1, 2009
That c-s’er m-f’er… Of course it’s all Miles’ fault. Brought the entire team down singlehandedly. Everything he comes in contact with becomes rotten. May his name and legacy live in infamy.
chilango2 - September 1, 2009
Notice how much better the Cardinals are this year?
Is that just a coincidence too?
Jody Jody Davis - September 1, 2009
Not at all, it's a superstition!
I cannot think of a ML team who’d take him next year—even if the Cubs eat the contract. I really can’t think of who’d be so blind. Thusly, the curse will continue next year.
chilango2 - September 1, 2009
Unless we just cut him
He gets a paid vacation, we get a roster spot – win-win!
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
Where would he go? He's not tall enough to ride the rides.
KaliCub - September 1, 2009
I have ideas
but I don’t want to be insensitive and un-PC.
chilango2 - September 1, 2009
Yeah, dwarf tossing should be outlawed!
KaliCub - September 1, 2009
Wat!
santoswoodenlegs - September 1, 2009
That's not up to your standards SWL.
I expect a photoshop version with Miles’ head on there.
KaliCub - September 1, 2009
That IS Miles head.
santoswoodenlegs - September 1, 2009
I didn't recognize him without his goatee, my bad.
KaliCub - September 1, 2009
Yeah, August 5th was the shutout that put Lou over the edge.
But Aug 7th was the date that the new lineup went into effect.
I’ll ignore the Miles thing like we all should ignore him.
KaliCub - September 1, 2009
Do so
At your peril
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
There was a new lineup on the 5th
Not only was Miles reactivated, not only was he inserted into the lineup that night, but for some insane reason Lou batted the guy with the worst OBP on the team second.
Jody Jody Davis - September 1, 2009
Stupid Cubs named Aaron. :(
slcathena - September 1, 2009
Lineup Game 2 vs Astros: Same as Monday:
riot, milt, lee, rami, fuky, fox, baker, hill, wells.
Via twitter.
AndrewJStone - September 1, 2009
Also of note from Twittermyer:
AndrewJStone - September 1, 2009
Le sigh
We have all of these guys up from Iowa, who could give some starters (Riot) a chance to rest, and Lou just trots out the same group that couldn’t buy a hit yesterday.
Thanks, Lou!
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
Kali wrote this on the recap:
We get to see Lousty managing from here on out.
chilango2 - September 1, 2009
Please no.
Lou was pretty good the last two years, I don’t get this at all.
slcathena - September 1, 2009
Yeah, I don't want it to be so either, but
Piniella has shown traits very familiar to us.
chilango2 - September 1, 2009
unfortunately
sue369 - September 1, 2009
wtf
fukudome- .321 average lead off, theriot – .271
lexmarklover - September 1, 2009
.291
lexmarklover - September 1, 2009
sure, but irrellevent, the OBP there is damning. :(
slcathena - September 1, 2009
And right on cue for the lineup
Inertia = means that an object will always continue moving at its current speed and in its current direction until some force causes its speed or direction to change.
Lou and his inertia lineup. Maybe we need to lose 10 in a row before he makes a change.
KaliCub - September 1, 2009
Time to start the 26 game hot streak....
Go Cubs!!!
eths - September 1, 2009
+1
sue369 - September 1, 2009
+1 to you both.
slcathena - September 1, 2009
win
one day at a time.
drewishdrewid - September 1, 2009
I lke my dated sitcom reference more
:P
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
Well, some of us never dated a sitcom.
N Oakley - September 1, 2009
I have
It’s terrible. They’re always telling you when to laugh or be sad…They’re never really that funny either. It was good for a little bit though, but it soon just gets soooo tiring.
Craig in South Bend - September 1, 2009
Its nice when you're finished with her to hear the crowd applaud. :)
KaliCub - September 1, 2009
come with me
if you want to win.
The playoffs… the final frontier
1969, a crack baseball team was sent to prison by a commissioner for an error they didn’t commit. This team promptly escaped from a contention to the Chicago underground. Today, still wanted by the fans, they survive as players of fortune. If you have bleacher seats, if no one else can bring beer, and if you can find them, maybe you can hire… The Cubs-Team.
drewishdrewid - September 1, 2009
1969, Star Trek, Dwight Schultz
1969 was the year Star Trek: TOS was cancelled. Dwight Schultz played Howling Mad Murdock on the A-Team and Reginald Barclay on a few episodes of Star Trek: TNG and Star Trek: Voyager.
memphiscub - September 1, 2009
For the love of Pete
WIN THIS GAME!
Craig in South Bend - September 1, 2009
As long as Pete is betting on us to win, I'll take it.
KaliCub - September 1, 2009
pete is not betting on us tonight
Is that a sign?
cozmotaylor123 - September 1, 2009 via mobile
Can you repete that?
KaliCub - September 1, 2009
I hope the Cub's five bar gate jumps and over stuff.
I don’t know what this mean, it just sounds distinguished.
Cubbiegoon - September 1, 2009
Cubs'
Cubbiegoon - September 1, 2009
How about a rousing game of Mornington Crescent?
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
Alright, back to work
Hope we win today. And, if any of you are there tomorrow, I hope we all get to take in a win tomorrow as well. Lets build one of those, what are they called? Streaks?
Craig in South Bend - September 1, 2009
Gosh, I hope SWL is not around...(streaks)
KaliCub - September 1, 2009
I'll just get it out of the way
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
Down past the quad and the gymnasium
Ace Venom - September 1, 2009
As in...
eths - September 1, 2009
I forgot about you eths, you're making a name for yourself too.
KaliCub - September 1, 2009
I assume this is a compliment...
By the way, thanks for giving me the idea – there has been so much talk about the entire team going on a streak, that I should have thought about this sooner.
eths - September 1, 2009
It was a comp
Although you do have a ways to go to get to SWLs level of
funninessderangement though.KaliCub - September 1, 2009
SWL is afaict The True Master
eths - September 1, 2009
::blushes::
santoswoodenlegs - September 1, 2009
me too
eths - September 1, 2009
this guy could use a mangroomer so he can maintain himself
katie casey - September 1, 2009
He needs some "manscaping"
KaliCub - September 1, 2009
I warn yee, tis not pretty
People along the Isar river in Munich during the summer months.
These are the true needy, oh manscapers and groomers….
eths - September 1, 2009
I can imagine doing many things in my life.
riding a bicycle naked is NOT one of them.
drewishdrewid - September 1, 2009
Imagine a wipeout, oh the humanity.
KaliCub - September 1, 2009
According to article:
The saddle does “rub” as much when naked. Nude bathing I understand, but buff bike riding is not my scene.
eths - September 1, 2009
I'm not as worried about the rubbing
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
Yes
the “boys” and all that bouncing. Ouch.
BigJohnAZ - September 1, 2009
Don't buy your Lineup-Follies theory
Regardless of who was batting first & second in the lineup, production went down from July to August for both Lee (9 HRs in July vs. 6 in Aug) & Ramirez (5 HRs in July vs 2 in Aug) with corresponding declines in BA/OBP/OPS. So even if Fukodome continued batting in that position with same BA/OBP, fewer runs still would have scored.
I think the real reason for the drastic July-August decline is a little more complex than Fukudome getting moved in the batting order.
JFCubFan - September 1, 2009
how about the
5.00+ Team ERA over the same stretch and bullpen follies. I think that had more to do with the lousy stretch than who was batting leadoff. I agree with you.
socalbob - September 1, 2009
They were some other issues
But Lou did take a lineup that appeared to be “clicking” so to speak (the record was good), and began tinkering with it. In doing so, things have gone south.
Obviously, Kevin Gregg’s meltdown, injuries and other matters didn’t help, as well.
Bill Potter - September 1, 2009
In July we scored 141 and gave up 124
In August we scored 105 and gave up 140. I think the pitching and hitting were both to blame in August.
BigJohnAZ - September 1, 2009
I liked the idea of getting Bradley in front of Lee and Rami
both to get his OBP there, but also to get him pitches to hit so he could start showing more power.
But I’ve said before and I’ll say it again, Ryan Theriot is not a top-of-the-order bat. He just doesn’t get it done there.
DGU - September 1, 2009
"this is a game the Cubs should win easily"
the Karma Kops would like a word with you, Al. Aren’t the Cubs having enough problems?
It’s not like Aaron Miles was dropped from the roster today. The living voodoo doll will still be sitting in a Cub uniform tonight. Nothing comes easy as long as he keeps suiting up for the Cubs.
LAcarl519 - September 1, 2009
Maybe we just need...
an Aaron Miles
voodoo dollbobblehead night. :)KaliCub - September 1, 2009
Lou would start the doll
Taller, better range, better OBP.
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
Sadly, Lou would STILL start Miles over the doll...
chilango2 - September 1, 2009
no doubt they would have to make it larger than lifesize to make it a standard-size Miles' bobblehead
LAcarl519 - September 1, 2009
If the Cubs follow their monthly trend
they will play over .500 ball this month. Too bad they tanked in August and made the playoff chase pretty damn tough. If we go 23-10 the remainder of the season, all STL has to do is limp along at 8-22.
Even if we played .500 in August, we’re still 8½ out with 4 weeks to play. Making up 2 games + per week would still be difficult.
BigJohnAZ - September 1, 2009
Chilly and clear wih a breeze blowing in from right
so says wunderground.com.
This is a good day to win!
eths - September 1, 2009
blanco or miles
Who gets more at bats between now and end of season?
cozmotaylor123 - September 1, 2009 via mobile
fontenot
tootle - September 1, 2009
via Len and Bob
Soriano must have talked his way into the lineup. He’s in for Fox.
Scrapptastic - September 1, 2009
Now that is funny, just typical Lou.
KaliCub - September 1, 2009
yep.
higher salary = more playing time
Scrapptastic - September 1, 2009
Yeah,
this is just a total disaster. (rolls eyes)
Not Bruce Froemming - September 1, 2009
What the hell?
santoswoodenlegs - September 1, 2009
as was true with Soriano's last game in LF,
his defense, or lack thereof, will likely lead to at least 2 runs for the Ass-tros tonight. I hope the offense is ready to make up for the weak leak in LF.
LAcarl519 - September 1, 2009
And they were winning so much
the last two days with Fox out there. Oh, wait …
Not Bruce Froemming - September 1, 2009
Some things in life are bad,
They can really make you mad,
Other things just make you swear and curse,
When you’re chewing life’s gristle,
Don’t grumble,
Give a whistle
And this’ll help things turn out for the best.
And…
Always look on the bright side of life.
eths - September 1, 2009
I don't even know what to say
I just hope Lousty knows something we don’t.
chilango2 - September 1, 2009
Of course he does
that would be…umm…well…
What do you want him to say?
chitownhawkeye - September 1, 2009
He'd better hit, then.
Bill Potter - September 1, 2009
does Lou not care about my fantasy team?
This makes me angry
cozmotaylor123 - September 1, 2009 via mobile
Paging carmen
chilango2 - September 1, 2009
Oh Lou.....
make your damn lineup and stick to it.
sue369 - September 1, 2009
cmon.
There were something like 120+ line-ups last year.
It’s not like the lineup with Fox produced the last two games. If Soriano is ready to play, then let him play.
drewishdrewid - September 1, 2009
I don't have any
faith in Soriano being productive at all.
sue369 - September 1, 2009
can't find out
without putting him out there.
drewishdrewid - September 1, 2009
We'll see.
sue369 - September 1, 2009
150 hits in 125 innings...
…let’s hope the Cubs don’t make him look like Greg Maddux in his prime.
MPH73 - September 1, 2009
I agree, in general, with Al's...
…analysis of Fukudome’s drop correlating with the slide. But, in the last month Aramis’ production has also dropped off. That has been mitigated, however, by Lee’s continued production.
It’s interesting that Al posted this because it was just over the weekend that I commented to my wife about how I couldn’t understand why Fukudome was dropped. There’s theory (l-r-l-r-l-r, etc.), and then there’s the reality of your team. If a few righties bat back-to-back and the team keeps winning, then you don’t change things until the team proves you wrong.
And I thought all Americans were a posteriori/inductive thinkers. Pragmatism clearly does not rule. – TL
timlacy - September 1, 2009
Line Ups ala Yahoo
Houston
AB R H RBI HR BB K SB LOB Season Avg
M. Bourn cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .292
M. Tejada ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .303
L. Berkman 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .276
C. Lee lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .308
G. Blum 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .259
H. Pence rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .281
K. Matsui 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .243
C. Coste c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .226
B. Moehler p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .029
Chi Cubs
AB R H RBI HR BB K SB LOB Season Avg
R. Theriot ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .293
M. Bradley rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .266
D. Lee 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .294
A. Ramirez 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .323
K. Fukudome cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .274
J. Fox lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .286
J. Baker 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .281
K. Hill c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .245
R. Wells p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .189
eths - September 1, 2009
so where is Fonzi?
did Lou come to his senses?
LAcarl519 - September 1, 2009
Y! is always a little slow
On the last-minute changes…
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
On WGN Lou just said the Fonz will play tomorrow.
Today he might pinch hit.
eths - September 1, 2009
CSN just showed Fonzi playing instead of Fox...ugh.
let’s hope that shot did “magic”
LAcarl519 - September 1, 2009
ESPN has fox out
cozmotaylor123 - September 1, 2009
Don't lineup orders not matter?
I GUESS I’ll watch this game tonight…at least until SHAQ VS. comes on.
Shaq’s playing Pujols tonight!!!
dtpollitt - September 1, 2009
That should be fun
I saw Shaq on the Cardinals game a few weeks ago, wearing a Cardinals jersey. That alone was hilarious.
Not Bruce Froemming - September 1, 2009
Hate linking to the Trib, but:
chilango2 - September 1, 2009
That's
umm…bad, right?
chitownhawkeye - September 1, 2009
You can say that again, Mr. Garrison...
chilango2 - September 1, 2009
We all knew this, right?
The Cubs have had plenty of injuries this year, and we have seen everybody from AAA who might be ready to help in any capacity. It seems to me that is all Lou is saying here.
You should read the minor league reports that are periodically posted here, so you would know that our best apparent prospects are still a year or two away in A or AA.
vonde6 - September 1, 2009
It's 1:49 AM here - I gotta turn of the light now - Guten Nacht.
Maybe someone can use this in about three hours from now.
eths - September 1, 2009
night
sue369 - September 1, 2009
Having a hard time understanding him, but Soriano says on WGN that
he’s feeling better and will play today and tomorrow.
chilango2 - September 1, 2009
Anybody else having issues with SBN sites?
This site and at least 1 other don’t seem to be loading properly on the main page, and when I reply to comments, the reply box is showing through the comments below, not just moving them down
chitownhawkeye - September 1, 2009
no prob so far, but I am using Safari on a Mac
LAcarl519 - September 1, 2009
Same here. Everything A-OK.
chilango2 - September 1, 2009
Fine with Firefox on a Mac.
AndrewJStone - September 1, 2009
and the common denominator is???????????
heine41 - September 1, 2009
Nobody else is using my crappy work computer
which, in addition to being slow, is not just using IE, but is still using IE6.
Have I mentioned that I don’t much like our IT dept?
chitownhawkeye - September 1, 2009
Need some help?
I could use the work…
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
same here, everything works as usual :)
heine41 - September 1, 2009
I'm not having any issues.
sue369 - September 1, 2009
Time for a
JUMP!
Clutch16 - September 1, 2009
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