When Aaron Heilman came into the game in the bottom of the ninth, I thought, "Hmmm. He's actually thrown pretty well in his last few outings."
Strange but true -- from August 12 through Thursday, Heilman had made 10 appearances covering 13 innings, with a 1.38 ERA and 11 strikeouts. And one of the reasons he'd thrown so well is the lack of walks -- only one in those 11 innings, after issuing 32 free passes in 53 innings before August 12.
It didn't take long after that thought ran through my head for Heilman to run the count on Matt Holliday to 3-1. "Okay", I thought then, "a walk isn't the end of the world."
That would have turned out to be correct. Holliday hit the next pitch for an opposite-field walkoff home run, giving the Cardinals a 3-2 win over the Cubs, yet another game in which the Cubs had plenty of chances to break it open and failed.
If anyone here has time and access to such statistics, I'd like to see a count of the number of times the Cubs had plate appearances with the bases loaded and failed to score this season -- and a comparison of that number with other teams. It seems that there have been an inordinate number of such situations; there was another last night, when the Cubs could have taken the 2-2 tie and blown the game open in the sixth. Of course, it would have then required taking out Ted Lilly, who had retired the first nine Cardinals in order and given up only three hits, including a triple to Mark DeRosa that might have been fielded cleanly by a real left fielder -- why is Bobby Scales out there? Here's what Lou said:
"Scales is learning outfield play," said Piniella, who doesn't have many options because of injuries to players. "He went into the corner. An outfielder has to wait for that ball to come out, concede the double to the hitter and that's it. What are you going to do? If the game stays that way, we go into the ninth inning with a 2-1 lead."
"Learning outfield play"? What is this, spring training? Lou, you did have another option. I'd rather have seen So Taguchi start in left field last night. Neither Taguchi nor Scales is a very good hitter, but at least Taguchi can play the outfield. He might have been able to track that ball down; he'd have had a better chance than Scales, anyway.
That, unfortunately, is the story of this team. Just not quite enough, and sometimes strange decisions made by the manager. Failure to take advantage of situations -- not only the bases-loaded situation in the sith, but the chance to perhaps pile up more than two runs off Smoltz in the first inning, when three straight doubles made the score 2-0. And taking themselves out of situations -- when Ryan Theriot was picked off in the top of the ninth, for example. The Cubs drew three walks off Smoltz, who had walked only one in 22 innings for the Cardinals since his acquisition last month. And why didn't the Cubs try to sign Smoltz, anyway?
The win by the Cardinals reduced their magic number to clinch the NL Central to six, and clinched the season series against the Cubs; they lead 9-5 with two games remaining.
Enough. They'll try it again this afternoon. The game preview thread will be up at 1 pm CDT.
0 recs | 173 comments
is it 2010 yet?
LuisSalazar - September 19, 2009
Chicago baseball 2009...
DrCrawdad - September 19, 2009
That guy needs to find another doctor.
Al Yellon - September 19, 2009
I would recommend a lobotomy.
Craig in South Bend - September 19, 2009
I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than have to have a frontal lobotomy.
katie casey - September 19, 2009
But no pills. Whiskey, please.
aldimond - September 19, 2009
At least the Rockies lost..
..only 6 baxk in loss column. Still a chance.
ronsanto10 - September 19, 2009
And 8 in the win column?
rencelas - September 19, 2009
Forget it
Lou isn’t even trying to win when he sticks Scales out there. He isn’t an outfielder.
rlpete - September 19, 2009
and his isn't even scrappy
I really would like to know what Fox did to get in the doghouse.
Doggie Stalker - September 19, 2009
Jake may have even been better defensively in that situation.
He’s a lot slower of foot, so he probably wouldn’t have been near the ball when it ricocheted off the wall.
daver - September 19, 2009
Has anyone called Lou out on the teams lack of
Foxyness?
Craig in South Bend - September 19, 2009
look
what do you want him to do
jesus christos - September 19, 2009
lololol
Awesome
Craig in South Bend - September 19, 2009
We just didn't have it this year.
What else can you say? Not much went right, for the manager, or the players, or the front office. I’ve been a Cub fan for almost sixty years and I’m pretty familiar with “Wait until next year” I’ll be back!
Saratoga - September 19, 2009
Additionally
Not to mention that Taguchi played two seasons with new Busch Stadium as his home park. If anyone on the Cubs’ roster knows the quirks of that outfield, it’s him.
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
The truth...so painful sometimes.
daver - September 19, 2009
Things you'd think Lou would realize
Further ammo for the “Lou has lost it” crowd. And by lost it, I don’t mean mentally, I mean skill for managing a major league ballclub.
Craig in South Bend - September 19, 2009
Regarding Heilman's recent string of "success" let's not forget...
that we’ve been seeing a lot of the Pirates and Reds in that stretch. I think he, like many Cubs, are worse that their stats would otherwise indicate because of the weak NL central.
Jerry Mumphrey - September 19, 2009
Close
But Heilman has only pitched once in the last month against either of those two teams. Breakdown of appearances since 8/12:
MIL (2), NYM (2), and once each vs. PHI, SDG, LAD, WSH, HOU, CIN, and STL.
5 of his last 11 appearances have been against NL Central foes, but more importantly, 8 of his last 11 appearances have been against teams with losing records. In the 2 appearances before last night in which he pitched against a good team, his WPA had been slightly positive (.02). In the 10 total appearances before last night, he was sporting a .27 WPA.
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
Any chance Lilly could supplant Zambrano as #1 starter in 2010?
He deserves it and Z doesn’t.
ronsanto10 - September 19, 2009
+Ted
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
Lilly's our ace.
katie casey - September 19, 2009
No, and doing so would be a mistake.
Jimmyeatworld - September 19, 2009
Lilly is our best pitcher right now
LT - September 19, 2009
actually it was right down the middle
jesus christos - September 19, 2009
It didn't look like Holliday got any of it
We all thought it was going to be a little flare off the bat. Still a bad pitch though. Shoulda walked him. (duh in hindsight)
rencelas - September 19, 2009
the gamecenter i was following it had it a lot closer to the middle than to the edge of the strike zone
jesus christos - September 19, 2009
Aw, shucks! Why was Aaron Heilman pitching?
zevkalman - September 19, 2009
Because Guz is hurting
And Marshal and Grabow went the day before. That’s my guess, anyway.
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
Probably correct.
And Heilman had actually pitched well for a while. It wasn’t that bad a choice. Well, until the HR, anyway.
Al Yellon - September 19, 2009
Yeah. The last pitch was pretty decent for the first 60 feet to the plate.
Then, not so much.
Zeke - September 19, 2009
Just watched the replay again.
Looks like the pitch was headed right down the middle out of Heilman’s hand but cut toward the outside corner when it reached the plate. Holliday put a very strong swing on it.
daver - September 19, 2009
Actually
on the slow motion replay, if you watch it closely, it looks like Soto set up outside, off the plate and the pitch started out outside and drifted back and caught a good portion of the plate.
A really good swing by Holliday, though, powering it out to the opposite field power alley. It’s a good thing Matt can’t hit away from Coors Field.
azjazzman - September 19, 2009
Hm, maybe you're right.
I’m tempted to check Gameday, but if I watch that play one more time I’ll be in danger of finding a bus and throwing myself in front of it…so I shall acquiesce.
daver - September 19, 2009
Oh, and here's the Cardinals recap with the replay...
…in case you’re a glutton for suffering like me.
LINKY
daver - September 19, 2009
Not too bad of a pitch
Holliday must have been looking that way, and caught the ball with the good wood of the bat.
propheteer - September 19, 2009
Bases Loaded Stats
Just a summarize…
The Cubs in 2009 have had 210 CHANCES with the bases loaded, that’s plate appearances. That LEADS THE MAJOR LEAGUES with Boston second with 203. Next is Milwaukee with 191, Washington(??) with 190, Florida with 182, and the Yankees and Padres (again… really?) with 180.
Here’s some more interesting facts… the Cubs have walked the SECOND MOST of any team with the bases loaded, 20 times… only beaten by WASHINGTON (god their pitching must be horrible) with 21.
The Cubs are 10th with 13 sacrifice fly ball outs with the bases loaded. Boston and Milwaukee are tied for first with 17.
The Cubs are SECOND IN THE MAJORS with 144 runs with the bases loaded. Second to Milwaukee with 150. Same with hits, second to Milwaukee. Cubs have 49 hits with the bases loaded, Brewers have 50.
The Cubs have the MOST doubles in the majors with the bases loaded, 15. Second is Boston with 13.
Philly leads the MAJORS with 10 grand slams. The Cubs actually have 5 this year… although I can only remember Theriot’s ;-)
The Cubs are second in the MAJORS with 134 RBI’s with the bases loaded. Milwaukee is first with 144. St. Louis is 16th with 104… 104. That’s 30 less for the non-mathemagians here.
The Cubs are 15th in batting average with the bases loaded, at .282 (Royals last at… get this… .191… ouch). Detroit first at… .361!!!
Cubs are 9th in on-base percent, at .343, Rockies are #1 at .388. KC last again at… ugh… .216. It’s bad when you make the Pirates look like All-stars at .318.
This is pretty consistent across the board, really. The Cubs are either top 2 or right in the middle of the pack. They’ve had a ton more chances than anyone else, have a lower batting average than most. Imagine if they picked that average up just a few points. That 134 RBI could easily be 164 with just 10 more hits. It seems like this team is succeeding en mas and failing equally and oppositely. This team is like the Newtons 3rd Law of Motion Cubs. For every action there is an equal and opposite REaction. We go out and score 10 ten runs, then we go 10 days without scoring a SINGLE run to make up for it. Our starters pitch a gem, relievers give it all back. Guys on the bench succeed, while the starts make up injuries… (ok, that last one was a joke).
But still, the chances have been there, and this team has played well… just not in the clutch. Those are my stats for the day, off to get more coffee. Enjoy!
lswaidz - September 19, 2009
Top 10 Stats
I was going to copy and paste some stats, but it’s easier just to link them… so linky!
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/94/sort/atBats/order/true
That’s sorted by Batting Average.
lswaidz - September 19, 2009
Interesting stuff - thanks!
Sometimes I think coffee has done baseball just as much good as Big League Chew.
And I agree with your assessment – this team seems to have gone through long stretches this season during which it just couldn’t get the big hit. The Cardinals, on the other hand, always seem to have one up their sleeve.
daver - September 19, 2009
Grand slams
I also remember Soriano’s vs. Houston in extra innings :)
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
Thanks for the numbers.
How do they compare to the 2008 team?
Al Yellon - September 19, 2009
Sure you want to know...?
In 2008 they had a TOTAL of 193 plate appearances, with 49 hits in 154 at bats for a batting average of .318. They drove in 161 runs, scored 169 and had 7 grand slams.
So the SAME amount of hits, but 27 more RBI’s. Granted, that was in all 162 games, but at this point I don’t think it matters. The .318 vs. .282 is the big difference… they’re just not getting quality hits. They’ve already had 17 MORE chances than last year in what, 15 fewer games? Even Boston only had 206 plate appearances last year with the bases loaded.
Here’s a good one… the Dusty Bakerific 2003 Cubs who almost went to the World Series had a total of… wait for it… 158 plate appearances with the bases loaded. That team was a STUNNING 28th in batting average with the bases loaded at .221. Amazing, just amazing.
lswaidz - September 19, 2009
My feeling is correct, then.
I’ve felt that the Cubs have had more chances with the bases loaded this year than last. That turns out to be true, and the number should get larger by the end of this season.
They did better last year in that situation, as they did in most situations.
Al Yellon - September 19, 2009
There aren't going to be too many seasons
where you bat .318 with the bases loaded. Actually, .282 is not bad.
As far as 2003 is concerned, that was a much different ballclub. Along with the dominant pitching, they were able to manufacture runs in 2003. Get em on, get em over, get em in. This supports what I have been saying for years…the most overlooked key component of that 2003 team was Kenny Lofton.
azjazzman - September 19, 2009
amen
it was the first team where I felt we were balanced from top to bottom. Nice call out.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
Lofton was a very good player for that team
And his contributions were overlooked.
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
I don't know
if any of you go back as far as the old Cubs Usenet newsgroup (before Al started his blog), but I used to get mocked and ridiculed on there when I would point out how key Lofton was to the success of the 2003 Cubs.
Didn’t change my opinion though.
azjazzman - September 19, 2009
I wouldn't have mocked you.
Lofton was very important. But the team insisted on giving the job back to Corey Patterson in 2004. Maybe Lofton would have made a difference for another year.
Al Yellon - September 19, 2009
I'm with ya...
…and I have said repeatedly, that Lofton and Gruds were the one-two punch at the top this club has not come close to having since. It was also no coincidence that was the last Cub playoff team that actually didn’t go ice cold in the playoffs.
Just think what would have happened if Patterson never went down in 03. The league would have figured him out, and you would have seen him start to K at will on shoulder high fastballs and 59 footers. IMO, they never would have made the run they did to make the playoffs.
MPH73 - September 19, 2009
I think they fail
more with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs. I have viewed the stats, but their situational hitting has been pretty pathetic this year.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
Yes.
Anecdotally, I agree with you — seems that’s been a situation of failure this year. Anyone who wants to post the numbers on that situation (and compare it to last year), feel free.
Al Yellon - September 19, 2009
Here ya go
2009 2 Outs, RISP
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/185/sort/atBats/order/true
2008 2 outs, RISP
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/year/2008/split/185/sort/atBats/order/true
lswaidz - September 19, 2009
BTW
ESPN’s stats have improved leaps and bounds this year, I really like all the data they have to display.
lswaidz - September 19, 2009
the splits don't have it
man on 3rd, less than 2 outs. The links are man on 3rd, 2 outs. Those are different situations.
RISP—Cubs 7th in MLB in 2008 and 26th in 2009.
The offense have been offensive in 2009 as much as our eyes see it or read it on a stat sheet.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
I think that is a key stat for the offense - Ba w/Risp.
From 7th to 26th? Wow, but I am not surprised. That’s is what makes for frustrating games – it’s not like the opportunities haven’t been there to score, Cubs just haven’t been able to take advantage.
Didn’t watch the game last night, heard the first inning with the deluge of doubles. Thought it was going to be a ruanaway. Oh, if Theriot could have gotten on in front of those. Was at a bar later, the lady friend saw the Cards had tied it up and it was bottom nine. I immediately said the Cubs were going to lose it. She went back in to check. I said they blew it, right? Yep. Guess how. Walk off homer. Yep.
More Bud light please.
BleedsbluinMI - September 19, 2009
But remember
the stat heads tell us that there is no such thing as clutch hitting.
azjazzman - September 19, 2009
I respectfully disagree with the stat heads, then.
I mean that is a stat, right? It is easy to understand and difficult to marginalize. The only caveat would be it does not include walks.
Doesn’t matter, that tells the damn story right there. The only clutch we have is Clutch16. Pretty sure he hasn’t had any plate appearances this year.
BleedsbluinMI - September 19, 2009
Not in the league the Cubs play in
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
You can count stats for any split you like.
The question is whether they mean anything. Yes, you can count up how a team does in a couple hundred odd plate appearances in a season. That doesn’t mean that the results represent an underlying truth about the team’s ability to hit in the clutch. The fact that a team with mostly the same players shows such a dramatic change from year to year should tell you something.
I don’t have the study in front of me, but from what I remember, almost no players perform better in the clutch than out of it, over a significant number of attempts. If a player could just elevate his game in the clutch he’d do well to figure out how to do it all the time.
aldimond - September 19, 2009
this is about clutch hitting
it’s about sitautional hitting. Clutch refers to 7th inning or later according to the metrics.
These situations happen from innings 1-9 and beyond.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
damnit, isn't about clutch hitting
socalbob - September 19, 2009
but we don't have anyone called situational16?
JK, I used the wrong semantics, your stats above speak for themselves is the point
BleedsbluinMI - September 19, 2009
It is semantics
but to me, if player A performs better in game changing situations than player B, on a consistent basis, no matter what inning it is (the game situation for the Cubs last night, for me, was when they loaded the bases), then in my mind, Player A is a better clutch performer. By definition.
But Baseball Reference or whoever it is, posted an article once, with all sorts of tortured statistical analysis, that said this was a fallacy.
Stupid me for thinking DLee or ARam are more clutch than Aaron Miles.
azjazzman - September 19, 2009
well
to be fair, I bet the stats would tell you that as well.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
Well, I don't feel like searching for the article
but what it basically said was that the whole concept of clutch doesn’t exist, so to them, it wouldn’t matter what the stats said, because you can’t quantify something that doesn’t exist. Or something like that. We would need one of the Baseball Reference cult members to explain this to us, because I never quite got it.
azjazzman - September 19, 2009
I'll defer to the SBAR guys
on it as well. But I think the premise was there was no difference in performance over the course of a game let alone a specific 3 inning sample to define clutch.
One of the biggest things was how “clutch” Jeter was and how A-Rod folded like a tent. After viewing the stats from their post-seasons, A-Rod out-performs Jeter, but the perception is Jeter is the man.
It’s all a matter of prespective as I believe a hit in the first innings with 2 outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd is just as important as one in the same situation in the 8th inning.
Just like wins in April mean the same as wins in August. That’s my personal view.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
Anybody who tries to argue
that A-Rod has been more clutch that Derek Jeter in post season play is not worth listening to, in my book. That is just absurd.
azjazzman - September 19, 2009
do you reject stats as a measure of performance?
they are virtually identical—I retract A Rod out-performing Jeter—faulty memory.
Jeter 309/377/469 in post-season
A-Rod 279/373/486 in post-season
Jeter 317/359/459 career
A-Rod 305/395/575 career
Jeter is the same in post-season as regular season and A-Rod is slightly worse. Not much of a difference to say one is “clutch” and the other is not, nor is there enough to say one goes in the tank and the other is god-like. It’s all perception.
I’ll take either one on the Cubs!
socalbob - September 19, 2009
I don't mean to draw this out - and I'm not meaning to argue.
My thought on that is that, yes just as a win in April counts as much/is just as important as one in August, an rbi in the second inning counts just as one in the ninth. That is straight line logic.
The “clutch” part of it isn’t that a late inning rbi means more, it is perceived as being more difficult to do. The added pressure of it being late in the game, it is possibly your last PA, etc. Also, in the late innings the likelihood of facing a closer with very low opposing batting avgs might add into it.
Anyway, the point is the situtation adds pressure, making that rbi harder to get. Does that make sense?
BleedsbluinMI - September 19, 2009
It does make sense
but my definition of clutch goes beyond just late inning heroics. My definition of clutch is coming up with a key play in a situation that can be a game changer.
Baseball Reference has those graphs that show how a given play effects the odds of that team winning the game. I’m not sure how they arrive at that, but if you compiled those plays and determined which players were responsible for the most plays that created the biggest changes in the odds of their team winning (usually expressed as a percentage, i.e., this play changed your teams odds of winning from 50% to 75%), then those players are the ones that deserve to be called “clutch” performers, imo.
azjazzman - September 19, 2009
Yep. I get it.
Can we get a few of those guys?
BleedsbluinMI - September 19, 2009
You can
but they tend to be costly.
azjazzman - September 19, 2009
We really need to give Hendry
Some extra cash so he can go out and get these kind of players.
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
Careful
he might use the cash to extend Soriano.
azjazzman - September 19, 2009
or sign chone figgins to an 8 year 100 mill deal
jesus christos - September 19, 2009
with a NTC
ballhawk - September 19, 2009
I think the NTC should be renamed
Call it the Hendry Clause.
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
is that another way of measuring...
…how an RBI (or whatever metric you want to use) is more important in a 2-1 game than in a 15-3 game?
ballhawk - September 19, 2009
I underdstand your point
I would say that facing Johan Santana in the 2nd inning will be as much pressure or more as facing JJ Putz in the 8th inning.
There is pressure to perform all game, not just because it’s late in the game.
I do get where you are going.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
don't reject stats
but these particular stats tell me nothing about Jeter’s clutch play in the post season vs A-Rods. Again, my definition of clutch has to do with game changing situations. Doesn’t have to be at the plate, either. It could be that backhanded flip to get the guy at the plate in that playoff game against the A’s. That changed the game, and to me, was a clutch play.
azjazzman - September 19, 2009
I'd buy into that
I think there is a lot more to it.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
don't know what happened to the body of my post
but what I said was, I don’t reject stats, but these particular stats (the ones you posted on Jeter and A-Rod) tell me nothing about each players play in game changing situations. A clutch play doesn’t have to be at the plate, either. It can be something like the back handed flip to the plate by Jeter to get the A’s runner in the playoffs. That play changed the game and it is the kid of thing Jeter has done throughout his career. It could be a successfully executed suicide squeeze in a close game. See, these stats don’t tell us anything about baseball unless we define our terms.
azjazzman - September 19, 2009
You clicked on the title :D
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
that play (back-handed flip) was the biggest non-play in the history of the game
Okay, I hyperbole a little, but Spencer’s throw was on-line and still moving at a decent speed. The time it took for Jeter to catch it, transfer it, and flip it made a routine out into a really close play.
ballhawk - September 19, 2009
I still think
Giambi was safe as Posada missed the tag.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
Incorrect on both counts
watch the play on you tube. The throw in hit the dirt base path before Jeter ran and grabbed it. It had lost momentum and never would have gotten to the plate. It Derek doesn’t grab it and flip, the run scores, no doubt about it.
As far as the tag, watch the ripple in Giambi’s pant leg as the tag grazes it. He was out.
MLB recently picked this as #1 in the Top Ten Derek Jeter plays of all time.
azjazzman - September 19, 2009
im guessing #2 was “Derek Jeter orders a taco.”
jesus christos - September 19, 2009
I could change it
High-leverage16? LateInningWithRISP16?
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
I like High-leverage16
I will now only respond posts under this name.
BleedsbluinMI - September 19, 2009
+10000000000000
azjazzman
Grockcubs - September 19, 2009
Yeah, it's the timely hitting
It’s been about quantity this year, not quality. Whereas last year we were getting QUALITY hits in bunches to win games when we NEEDED them. This year we seem to pile on when we don’t need it… like blowing out the Pirates or Nationals… when all you need is 3 or 4 runs to do so, we go and score a dozen runs. And when we need 2 or 3 to beat the tough teams, we can’t score more than 1 or 2. That’s the difference, IMHO, between the 07/08 and 2009 teams.
lswaidz - September 19, 2009
One more damning stat...
In the 7th inning or later in 2009, the Cubs have driven in 162 runs. That is 29th in the majors. Only the Pirates have driven in less, with 160.
lswaidz - September 19, 2009
There's a stat for that, isn't there?
It’s something familiar – can’t seem to put my finger on it, though…
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
yep
got to Google and look under “shitty hitting” and the 2009 Cubs will pop up
socalbob - September 19, 2009
That says it all
29th in the majors after the 7th. Can’t argue that, no one gets on base and when they do the Cubs don’t drive them home.
Grockcubs - September 19, 2009
There are some clutchy splits in which the Cubs haven't played well...
but those bases-loaded stats are hardly damning. They’re in the top half of the league in BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS with the bases loaded. I made up a spreadsheet and found that they’re 18th in runs per AB (grumble grumble stupid useless websites that list AB and not PA), which isn’t great, but it’s not like they’re failing epically.
aldimond - September 19, 2009
2009 Cubs PAs
5674 to date.
From http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/2009.shtml
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
I know you can get PAs for the team
But since b-r doesn’t have a leaderboard for bases-loaded splits I can’t quickly get counts of each team’s PA with the bases loaded, which is what I would have needed.
It’s sort of a general frustration… nobody should list AB, ever. Its only use is as a denominator for AB and SLG.
aldimond - September 19, 2009
I'm right there with you on that
But until ESPN quits using ABs in their broadcasts and then explains for a year why PAs make more sense, I think we’re stuck with it.
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
Heilman ---
“It’s never a good pitch when it goes over the fence.”
You’ve got to be kidding — really? When did Heilman figure this out? Before or after he graduated from Notre Dame or when the Mets moved him out of town last year?
I for one really am not impressed by his numbers over the past two weeks. It’s what happened in the twenty something weeks before that. He did last night what he accomplished in that five month timeframe. Losing a game, giving up the lead, giving up more runs in a relatively close game — the list goes on.
Wondering why Scales is in the game? Why does Lou continue to use Heilman? Surely there is some other over-used and underachieving arm somewhere in baseball.
And a follow up to seeing Scales in left field — not just last night but ever since Soriano was removed from the lineup. What in the hell does Lou have against Jake Fox? Why isn’t he in left field? And please don’t go into the lefty-righty matchup stuff. Lou and his cohorts showed absolutely no confidence in Fox when he was tearing up AAA and Aramis was out. Now when he could be in the lineup again, Fox sits while a guy who has been an infielder most of his career starts more than a handful of games in the outfield.
All of us who have some sense of what this team is about know full well that Scales is not a prospect. So why then is he given starts over Fox — or for that matter any other legitimate OF prospect that the Cubs have.
One last thing — please keep your eyes on Starlin Castro — now of the Tennessee Smokies — and earlier of the Daytona Cubs.
After seeing him a couple of times this summer in Florida, this 19 year old kid is the future SS for the Cubs. Hits to all fields, consistently makes contact, does not strike out very often, has a gun for an arm, and has great range in the field. He has made his share of errors but that is something that can be corrected. I can honestly say and truly believe that he will be starting for the Cubs no later than 2011 — maybe sooner.
ceegeewow - September 19, 2009
About Castro.
He probably is too young and raw to be in the major leagues next year. But if he is the real deal, there’s no reason you couldn’t make him a major league shortstop at age 21 in 2011. It’ll be interesting to see where he plays next year.
Al Yellon - September 19, 2009
And, when they do that, how about you let him play on a regular basis?
Even if he struggles some, let him adjust to playing everyday in the bigs (G. Beckham), not let him rot on the bench (Fox/Hoff). I realize that Beckham and the two Cubs are not good comparisons due to differences in defensive capabilities. I echo the sentiment though, that why in the hell isn’t Fox in LF or at third everyday? Why?
BleedsbluinMI - September 19, 2009
About Castro's errors.
Plenty of good major league SS make a lot of errors in the minors at that age. Example: at age 19, Derek Jeter made 56 errors in the South Atlantic League.
Al Yellon - September 19, 2009
good point Al
also to note, the reports are that he has soft hands and good feet to go with a rocket arm. The reps of off-season workouts and another 1,260 innings between AA and AAA next year will prepare him to step into a starting role in 2011.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
How's his range?
Or should I just wait a few hours and ask Josh?
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
terrific range
he has the tools of an elite defender. Some of his errors are of the “I shouldn’t have thrown that ball even though I got to it” variety. Some more experience will help him.
I am more concerned with the bat.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
i believe josh said that castro also makes cedeno like plays
but goofs up on basic ones. though he might have been talking about hak ju lee when he said that, im not sure
jesus christos - September 19, 2009
yep
a 19 year-old makes errors of all varieties.
I think the point is he has the tools (arm, feet, hands) of an elite defender at SS.
Keep in mind, some of the fields are absolutely brutal in MILB. So routine plays that all of a sudden take a right or left turn or jump up, can appear to say a guy screws up routine plays. At Wrigley or any other MLB park, those errors drop by about 90% due to the excellent fielding surfaces.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
We have a hall of fame calibre shortstop on the coaching staff now.
Bring him up and let Tram work with the kid every day next season. I mean honestly, what is there to lose at this point? More games? I’d rather lose with players getting BETTER as they play than “veterans” who continue to regress season to season…
At least there’s an eventual payoff (hopefully).
Zeke - September 19, 2009
But he wouldn't be available for the post-season roster!
(ducks)
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
Tram? NO, unfortunately...
Zeke - September 19, 2009
good point
however, it makes no sense to start his arbitration clock early. Next Sept would make a lot of sense, FWIW.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
I've gotta defend Heilman's comment, if not his performance.
Pitchers have very little control over whether a specific pitch gets hit out of the park. Pitchers very often make mistakes that get popped up, or that the hitter takes; if you define a mistake as failing to execute the pitch, sometimes missing your spot or hanging/burying a breaking ball winds up being effective. And very often a pitcher throws exactly what he was intending to throw and it gets ripped. If Heilman thought he executed his pitch and it got hit out anyway, that’s a perfectly reasonable comment.
aldimond - September 19, 2009
Lou's attitude is just infurating
“Learning the outfield”—I mean, wtf? This is Sept. and as little as a week or two ago we still had an outside shot at the wild card. Presumably the reason Scales is out there instead of Fox is b/c he’s a better defender. Not saying Fox would have nailed that play, but it’s simply unfathomable why Fox isn’t getting more ABs to get his swing back and knock in more RBIs—the guy’s got one fewer RBI than Bradley with 260 fewer PAs!!!) I know Lou’s been dealt a tough hand this year with injuries and slumping players, but I just don’t understand the thought process behind many of his managerial decisions.
I questioned the decision to go to Heilman, but others pointed out that Guzman was not well and most of the rest of the pen was tired. I certainly would not have wanted Shark in there, so I guess Heilman was the guy. Was Marmol available? He hasn’t pitched since the first game vs. Milwaukee (clearly, there hasn’t been a save opp. since then), but I suppose he was going to finish things off once we scored runs in the 10th (yeah, right.) This is what you get when you have two craptacular 4-inning performances in a row from your starting pitchers. A worn-out pen that gives up the game.
For me, the most maddening moment was when Theriot got picked off in the top of the 9th. Franklin was really keeping an eye on him and almost picked him off once. How this wasn’t sufficient reason for caution, I do not understand.
cwpettis - September 19, 2009
Marmol was warming up right next to Heilman
Non-save situation, though…
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
Anyone feel like compiling Lou's Top 10 most dubious quotes of the year?
Because I think “Scales is learning outfield play” may rank up there.
daver - September 19, 2009
What's the big deal?
The season is done. I figure Jake Fox has a spot on the roster next year (barring a trade, of course). They’re looking to see who else deserves a spot. If Scales can play well enough in the outfield, that eliminates a task for the offseason.
This is what shitty teams do in late September — start looking ahead to next year.
kanderber - September 19, 2009
If the Chicago Cubs are seriously considering...
…Bobby Scales as a backup outfielder for 2010 then…well…maybe I’ll give synchronized swimming a shot.
daver - September 19, 2009
BUT HE MAKES SUCH A GREAT STORY
jesus christos - September 19, 2009
WHAT ABOT ADAM LIND? HE PLYS OUTFELD
BleedsbluinMI - September 19, 2009
I DONT KNOW
CAN WE TRADE FOR HIM?
jesus christos - September 19, 2009
Scales has ZERO chance of the OF next year
and you absolutely need to see more of Fox and let him try to improve his defense. It is absurd to have Scales out there
as he has been for the last 2 weeks. Obviously Fuld’s injury limited the options but this is a no brainer to play Fox over
Scales.
Doggie Stalker - September 19, 2009
Agreed.
I’d like to see Jake get more plate appearances this season. Or, at the very least, as pointed above, put Taguchi out there – a guy who’s at least familiar with that outfield.
daver - September 19, 2009
To say he has zero chance isn't true...
If he had zero chance, he wouldn’t be playing there now. It’s that simple.
Whether you agree or disagree that he’s a GOOD option isn’t relevant. Lou clearly sees potential there. Or Hendry does, or someone.
I don’t. At all. But I’m just saying.
kanderber - September 20, 2009
if scales is being considered to be the fourth outfielder
this team will continue to confuse me
jesus christos - September 20, 2009
He has 10 quotes?
Yup – that’s all I got.
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
You forgot
“We just needed to execute and we didn’t”
Craig in South Bend - September 19, 2009
Referring to the opposing pitcher - insert any soft throwing no name that we just made look like Cy:
“that young man threw a great game, you gotta hand it to him”
BleedsbluinMI - September 19, 2009
"Sure he may be a 31 year old rookie..."
jesus christos - September 19, 2009
We're up to 9
And none of them are even close to “Roll up our shirts”.
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
Win Cubs Win...
Zeke - September 19, 2009
You can't forget the instant classic...
“I… I… I wouldn’t know… I wouldn’t ah… I wouldn’t know a steroid from a reefer.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LtnjBwVZlQ
lswaidz - September 19, 2009
And then there's
“Look, I have smoked dope one time in my life. And it didn’t do a damn thing for me, and I never tried it again.”
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
an oldie but a goodie
When asked about putting in a defensive replacement for Soriano in the late innings after he dropped he dropped a ball
in the 9th for the 2nd time in 08 Lou said
``You don’t take superstar players out of the lineup,’’
Doggie Stalker - September 19, 2009
I'm waiting for the major hate
to come out on Theriot.
That has to be the most egregious “error” on a baseball field. It just cannot happen and yet he allowed it to happen. But Lou will certinaly trot him out there today and no one is gong to go ballistic.
I can’t even fathom the flame war if MB had been picked off in the 9th. But I guess it’s okay because our “team puppet” was the numb-nuts on the basepath.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
No, it's not OK.
That was, as noted by me and others, inexcusable.
Personally, I’d run Blanco out there every day for the rest of the year to see how he does in a starting role. I’ll bet he wouldn’t get picked off in that situation.
Al Yellon - September 19, 2009
agreed
you did note it, but out of the first 30 posts, not 1 said anything about it.
Blanco would be my guy as well and tell Theriot why his ass is on the bench. That ws baseball of losers, not winners.
That play burns me as much as any play this entire year given the situation of the game.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
I wanted to comment on it
But I couldn’t keep my comments family-friendly enough.
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
LOL!!!!!
I’m still pissed about it.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
Cubs and or Lou do not value defense
Blanco should have been brought back in August as soon as he could play and Fonty sent down. Fuld should have played more than he did but because neither has power they were used infrequently. I can count as many games lost
because of misplays than those lost by stranding runners. You can add last night to the list.
Doggie Stalker - September 19, 2009
as i said during the game thread
i hold more contempt for theriot this year than bradley soriano miles heilman gregg or fontenot
jesus christos - September 19, 2009
"And why didn't the Cubs try to sign Smoltz, anyway?"
Do you know that we didn’t? Not that it would have mattered.
I mean, c’mon… Put yourself in Smoltzie’s shoes. End of your career, you’d like to go out a winner, get one more ring… okay, you’ve just been cut by the Red Sox, but hey – that means you can go anywhere you want. You look around at the other teams, checking out the standings, taking into account your previous 20 years have been in the NL… who looks like your best option? LA, Philly, or StL. Torre,
LaRussaDuncan, defending champs… Hard to go wrong there.Frankly, I don’t think the Cubs were even sniffing 4th place in that race.
ballhawk - September 19, 2009
Totally agree.
If Smoltz considered the Cubs for all of three seconds, I’d be shocked. Plus, IIRC, DeRo and someone else (Lugo? no, it was another ex-Brave…drawing a blank at the moment) were giving him the hard sell from the get-go.
daver - September 19, 2009
Adam Wainwright.
DeRoMyHero - September 19, 2009
I haven't uttered a bad word about Theriot
this year…but I wanted to strangle him last night. He’s maddening. When he’s hitting, it makes up for his lack of range and puss arm. He’s been pretty weak the last month or so, and mistakes like last night are the last straw.
He obviously can’t play a full season, seemingly always getting tired in September.
To me, the Cubs should have a new middle infield next year through trades or FA’s.
Canadian Cubs Fan - September 19, 2009
Yeah, I posted yesterday a light defense of him, especially at the plate.
I did say he should not be in the leadoff. When I posted that I was also thinking it had been a long time since he had tootblan’ed.
Don’t have to think that anymore.
BleedsbluinMI - September 19, 2009
Another Lou-ism:
To which I say, why the hell AREN’T we doing exactly that? Is the farm system THAT barren? And if it is, how was it allowed to get in that condition?
Zeke - September 19, 2009
when the last hitters
from your minor league system who amounted to anything in Cubbie Blue are Santo and Williams, yes the farm system is barren. Thank you Hendry.
MPH73—you out there? :-D
socalbob - September 19, 2009
I know you're exaggerating for effect
But even if you don’t consider Soto and Theriot as “anything,” Mark Grace certainly was.
elgato - September 19, 2009
career numbers
Grace had a nice average, decent OBP, and had a good glove.
He was, what maybe the 5-6th best firstbaseman in the NL during his time?
No, I stand by what i said without hyperbole. We haven’t had any long-term hitters that we developed amount to anything special for a career.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
Grace had a career 119 OPS and nearly 2500 hits...
you have a very high bar for “amounting to anything” if Grace doesn’t make the cut.
SouthernCub - September 19, 2009
fine
include Grace. So that leaves 3 players who had significant careers in Cubbie Blue in the last 40 years.
Woo Hoo!!!!!! We have 3 now. Mhy point still stands.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
i dont know
that sandberg guy was pretty good
jesus christos - September 19, 2009
why are you even playing
Sandberg was a Phillie in his minor-league career and came over in a trade. Really? Step away from your bong.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
I completely agree...
I just think it’s ridiculous to not consider Grace anything less than a very successful and productive MLB hitter for a very long time. He wasn’t a Hall of Fame player, but he was really good.
That said, I completely agree that the Cubs farm system has been terrible for the last 20 years. Hopefully that’s changing now.
SouthernCub - September 19, 2009
the problem I had with Grace
is his failure to develop power to drive in more runs. He was satified with smoking, partying, slump-busting, etc. instead of hitting the weight room and developing more power. He could have easily adapted and driven in more runs through a better approach.
He was a productive player, but never an MVP type and certainly not the top of his position during his era.
I know he’s a beloved Cub, but more disappointment in my eyes that he did not get better as the years went. He was solid from Day 1 and nothing more. Never hit more than 17 HR and never drove in 100 runs despite hitting 3 or 4 his entire career. He slugged .500 1 time and it took 51 Doubles to do it.
I know my take is not popular and that’s fine. I’ll buy your argument for his accolades.
socalbob - September 19, 2009
the jury is still out on soto
jesus christos - September 19, 2009
Forget the "crackerjack" prospects
JUST PLAY FOX & BLANCO to see how they are as everyday players. If Fuld was healthy I would add him to the list.
You have two weeks left to see how some guys can play.
Doggie Stalker - September 19, 2009
Now
I want some Cracker Jack :(
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
offense lets us down yesterday
and the entire season
lexmarklover - September 19, 2009
IT HAPPENED AGAIN?!!!?!!!
daver - September 19, 2009
"Look, all season long you guys have been asking if it's happening..."
“…and now that it happens, you’re surprised? Christ, I give up. Where’s that damn fishing boat of mine? C’mon Larry, let’s go catch us some big ones. See you all next year.”
[smirks…]
ballhawk - September 19, 2009
yes IT HAPPENED!?!?!
lexmarklover - September 19, 2009
Clutch16 - September 19, 2009
Relief pitching
Gregg and Heilman have ERAs 4.68 and 4.23. Yesterday’s Cardinal relievers have 2.87 and 1.89. They’ve all pitched in relief most of the season. Therefore, I don’t want Gregg and Heilman back; they aren’t competitive.
AboutTheCubs - September 19, 2009
Jeez...
…I wonder if that has anything to do with the difference between Duncan and Rothschild?
MPH73 - September 19, 2009
i dont think duncan can make heilman and gregg decent pitchers
jesus christos - September 19, 2009
He has done it before...
…with less.
MPH73 - September 19, 2009
i dont know
they seem lost
jesus christos - September 19, 2009
That's one of Duncan's...
…specialities, finding lost pitchers.
MPH73 - September 19, 2009
wizardly is a great thing
i guess
jesus christos - September 20, 2009
wizardy even
jesus christos - September 20, 2009
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