Kent Horner - Getty Images
Starting pitcher Matt Latos of the San Diego Padres throws the ball during the first inning of the game against the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park in San Diego, California. (Photo by Kent C. Horner/Getty Images)
When Mike Quade put his "kids lineup" on the field on September 19, 2010, they defeated the Florida Marlins 13-3.
That day, they were facing the Marlins' Andrew Miller, who posted an 8.54 ERA in 2010 and has a career ERA of 5.79 (and 5.54 in 12 starts for the Red Sox this year, which could go a long way toward explaining Boston's troubles).
That wasn't the case Monday night in San Diego. The Padres' Mat Latos is a very good pitcher; his 8-14 W-L record coming into the game reflects the 3.3 runs/start of run support he had received this season before Monday. That ranked 64th among 70 qualified starters in the National League.
That number actually went down Monday night; he got just two runs from his teammates, but Latos was outstanding and he and two relievers shut out the Cubs 2-0 on just two hits. The loss was the Cubs' 90th of the season; I've taken down the "loss countdown" box that was on the left sidebar. Now, I'd just like to see them win their last two games to finish up on a high note.
Latos, in fact, was perfect through four innings. Carlos Pena walked leading off the fifth, and Latos kept a no-hitter through 5⅓ innings, when Casey Coleman broke it up with a triple.
Yes, that's right. The only Cubs hitter who could hit Latos through six innings was the opposing pitcher. Coleman is a pretty good hitter, but once again, the Cubs had a runner on third base with fewer than two out and could not get him home. The only other Cubs hit -- or baserunner -- was recorded by Starlin Castro, who singled leading off the seventh. It was the 38th consecutive game in which Castro reached base. But he, too, never left that spot.
Give Latos, Chad Qualls and Heath Bell some credit. They were lights-out last night. Coleman was also good -- he allowed Will Venable's home run that was the only run the Padres needed, but apart from that, just four other hits and two walks, along with seven strikeouts. It does appear to me that Coleman's work with his father (former major leaguer Joe Coleman) has helped him; Casey's delivery looks completely revamped. He should definitely get the chance to be next year's fifth starter. Rafael Dolis (who is a large man!) made his MLB debut and threw 1.1 scoreless innings, and then John Gaub got a pair of outs in the eighth.
At which time Mike Quade decided he just had to have a righthander in the game. So 38-year-old Ramon Ortiz came in. He got the out, but really: when a pitcher is going good, and maybe you'd like to see what a LHP can do against righthanded hitters, why not leave Gaub in? The reflexive moves by managers to get the platoon advantage can be taken to extremes. Quade has done this more often than almost any Cubs manager I can remember.
Two games left. Just remember that.
I wanted to say a few words here about Carlos Pena, whose walk was his 100th of the season. I'm not sure that some of you understand how rare that is. First, Pena ranks third in the NL in walks -- only Prince Fielder and Joey Votto have drawn more. That's pretty good company. And it's not as if they're pitching around Pena -- he has exactly one intentional walk this season.
In the last 81 years -- since 1930 -- there had been only four Cubs 100-walk seasons before Pena: Richie Ashburn in 1960, Gary Matthews in 1984 and Sammy Sosa in 2001 and 2002.
This has value. Pena is third on the team in runs, largely as a result of being on base so many times. He has a .358 OBA -- even with his low batting average, that ranks 21st in the NL, just below Corey Hart. He has a .466 SLG -- that ranks 25th in the NL, just below Brian McCann. It is true that he has not hit well with RISP this year. In his last good year with the Rays (2009) he hit .264/.430/.614 with RISP. Perhaps this year is the anomaly.
I'm not saying that I'm 100% convinced he should be back. But at this point, I doubt the Cubs are in the running for Albert Pujols or Fielder. And I'm still not convinced that Bryan LaHair is the answer.
All I'm saying is that Carlos Pena has had a decently productive season and has been worth the contract he's signed.
Two games to go and this misbegotten season will be history. Matt Garza throws tonight; he's been one of the few things really worth watching all year.
0 recs | 197 comments
I've been using 'Latos Intolerant'
since he broke in. I still will, until he’s a Cub.
timh815 - September 27, 2011
The other sad thing about the game was
11 K’s and 1 BB (Pena). Looks like the “kids” take after the adults. That game was sure worth the buildup for playing the kids.
I have absolutely seen enough of Tyler Colvin for this year. He needs to spend all of 2012 in the minors trying to rework his swing.
rlpete - September 27, 2011
Here's the thing about that
One recently starts a job, you notice that no holds anyone responsible. What do you do?
Madison Cub Fan - September 27, 2011
If last night was an indication of what next year will be like,
count me out, thanks.
Not Bruce Froemming - September 27, 2011
Well, you'd never play a team like that every day.
Right? That was essentially the Iowa Cubs (who weren’t very good this year) playing a major league team.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
This might be a Josh question
But could the 1st or 2nd best farm teams of another team be able to beat the 2011 Cubs?
Madison Cub Fan - September 27, 2011
Phillies could
And Sandberg would be managing the Iron Pigs whilst they did it.
SecTaylor - September 27, 2011
Are some of his players
the type that would be on major league rosters if they were in a farm system that was playing .500 or less ball?
Besides having Ryno as manager what makes them a good team?
Madison Cub Fan - September 27, 2011
No
I mean, if they played ten times I’m sure they’d win two or three games, but the Cubs would easily win a best-of-seven series against a Triple-A team.
Josh Timmers - September 27, 2011
The Astros...
… essentially have had a Triple-A team on the field since the trading deadline.
They are 21-31 since then.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
Kind of
Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris and Carlos Lee aren’t Triple-A players. Don’t think Brett Myers is either. Having a couple of major league starters helps.
But I see your point. It’s something that I’ve often argued: That the difference between the guys playing in Triple-A and the guys sitting on a major league bench is pretty negligible.
Josh Timmers - September 27, 2011
Right.
Houston has three decent starting pitchers and one or two major league players on the field every day — but basically, have a minor league team performing.
But they are still losing two of every three games since the deadline.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
Then shouldn't they be
the AAAstros?
ddoubleheader - September 27, 2011
I've wondered many times
not just this season but last year too, where the Iowa Cubs end and the Chicago Cubs begin? Is there a difference besides the stadium they play in, the teams they play against, and the bloated contracts?
Do the Iowa Cubs have a Little Z?
Do they have some kind of pee-wee form of ivy growing in the stadium in Des Moines?
ddoubleheader - September 27, 2011
Oh, of course
But a lot of people are advocating the Cubs go exactly this route.
Not Bruce Froemming - September 27, 2011
that's a very simplistic way of putting it....
I understand you disagree with the approach of eating salary and moving on with different players from this point forward.
santoswoodenlegs - September 27, 2011
Yes and no
Some players (like Z), yes. Other players (like Ramirez), no.
No major-market team should field a typical lineup like the one the Cubs fielded last night.
Not Bruce Froemming - September 27, 2011
But yet...here we are.
No major-market team should have a payroll over $100 million for a 70 win ballculb…but yet..here we are.
santoswoodenlegs - September 27, 2011
Whatever, SWL
Go post a picture of the Hindenburg or something. You do that well, at least.
Not Bruce Froemming - September 27, 2011
You're not the boss of me.
santoswoodenlegs - September 27, 2011
OK, don't do it
Maybe reverse psychology is in order.
Not Bruce Froemming - September 27, 2011
The problem next year will be middle of the order.
If Ramirez does walk and the Cubs don’t get Fielder or Pujols then the middle of the lineup is going to be bad barring some surprise deal. I’m not sure who might be available.
rlpete - September 27, 2011
Agreed
It was bad this year. It will be atrocious next year without one of those two guys.
krummy12 - September 27, 2011
Yup.
And like Al said, I’m beginning to doubt the Cubs go after Fielder or Pujols.
shoemile - September 27, 2011
They won't.
MPH73 - September 27, 2011
But who
will they go after and hype as a bargain version of Fielder or Pujols, to try and sell it to the fans that they’re ‘trying’ to put together a winning team?
Will they try to sign whichever sausage is the fastest in the Milwaukee Sausage Race?
ddoubleheader - September 27, 2011
Carlos Pena.
This team isn’t going to look drastically different in 2012. The new GM and new manager (god please let there be a new manager) will have to be enough for us…other than a new SP and another infielder we won’t be very excited about.
santoswoodenlegs - September 27, 2011
Probably a middle of the rotation guy.
shoemile - September 27, 2011
What! You mean you can tell us on September 27, 2011
that the players in the game last night will have terrible 2012 seasons? Well, I wish I was as prescient as you. Maybe you should root for the Royals with that kind of attitude.
/Meatball
Shanghai Badger - September 27, 2011
Where do you see this improvement coming from?
I have never claimed to be omniscient, but don’t I see the Cubs even improving to even .500 next year?
Madison Cub Fan - September 27, 2011
You need to click on the "up" tag in my original comment
And then think about posting histories.
Shanghai Badger - September 27, 2011
I guess I missed it too.
It is hard remembering who is who around here sometimes.
rlpete - September 27, 2011
I thought the pseudo-sarcasm tag would do it. Guess not.
Shanghai Badger - September 27, 2011
your pseudo sarcasm tag could make friends with
actual sarcastic tag. :)
Madison Cub Fan - September 27, 2011
Meatball
Shanghai Badger - September 27, 2011
A lot of people agree with him.
The Cubs “kids” are not very good. It doesn’t take a crystal ball when looking at Colvin to realize he isn’t a 2012 starter. So many people love to criticize DeWitt as useless but he and Colvin are almost the same age. If DeWitt is useless, what does that make Colvin and his .150 average? Will Barney develop power over the off-season? DJL brings one skill, hit for average. He doesn’t walk, has minimal power and average defense. Do you really think Campana is a major league starter? Are the Cubs really going to start LaHair at 1st base next year?
I don’t frequently agree with NBF but in this case I do, I don’t understand the love for this group of kids.
rlpete - September 27, 2011
I agree
But sadly I see some of these kids filling holes in the line up next year. Some of them might be more talented at digging holes. :(
Madison Cub Fan - September 27, 2011
I don't think they can all be totally blamed for last night
Latos was nasty last night, and some of the kids hadn’t played in days, Clevenger and Colvin, most notably.
Mulhollandmania - September 27, 2011
Yep
The kids will become as solid as Cubs players of previous years. So, don’t expect much past 2nd place in NL Central at best without other elements. They might be ok as connective tissue, but the Cubs are going to need bone and muscle to get anywhere.
ddoubleheader - September 27, 2011
Go deeper
With the exception of Brett Jackson, the rest of the kids mentioned as future contributors are equally as bad. Count Vitters, McNutt, Jay Jackson and just about every other purported “top prospect” in this organization among that. But boy that Tim Wilken is doing a fabulous job….just look at all the success he had elsewhere as evidence of it. Sarcasm be damned.
krummy12 - September 27, 2011
Agree with you on most of the higher minors except for McNutt.
I’m definitely not sold on Jay Jackson or Vitters. On Jackson, I think people here are also overrating him. He will hopefully be a solid regular but I don’t see star. As some have mentioned, a Steve Finley type.
rlpete - September 27, 2011
Well
Brett Jackson will be a productive major leaguer because his skill set is more than one-dimensional. It remains to be seen how productive he will be at the plate, but he at least adds other things…unlike guys like Campana who are simply one-trick ponies.
As with most of the other guys in the Cubs system, Vitters isn’t highly skilled at anything. He makes contact but still gets himself out regularly which is a recipe for hitting .220 in the majors. Other than his contact skills, he doesn’t add enough to be a legitimate regular.
McNutt has skills but believing he’ll be a difference maker is highly speculative. Jay Jackson probably shouldn’t have even been brought up as he’s quickly becoming 40-man roster fodder. I wouldn’t hold my breath on guys like Simpson, Dolis or others. Guys like Clevenger are backups and waiting and hoping for someone like Baez is like flipping a coin. Matt Szczur offers some reasonable hope as a regular CF as his skill set isn’t one dimensional…..but after that….pass. There just aren’t difference makers in this system at any level.
Couple that with the financial crises and it isn’t difficult to see how this rebuilding process could take quite a while.
krummy12 - September 27, 2011
No disagreement.
It is going to take time to rebuild through the minors. I’m not expecting McNutt to be an ace but he could develop into a mid-rotation guy otherwise I don’t see a lot in the foreseeable future.
rlpete - September 27, 2011
I'm not in favor of being below .500 just to play the kids...
but if its getting terrible contracts off the books, a new philosophy and new direction in place, then i’m all for getting kicked around in 2012 to hopefully be relevant in 2013.
epsilon - September 27, 2011
I just don't see enough minor league help arriving in 2013 to make the team relevant.
If things go well maybe Szczur, Vitters and McNutt see some 2013 time but I doubt any would be difference makers that soon. FA’s will be needed to make 2013 relevant.
rlpete - September 27, 2011
exactly...
and the old/bad money off the books, new philosphy, new direction should take care of some of that.
epsilon - September 27, 2011
Jackson
has a lot more power than Steve Finley.
Josh Timmers - September 27, 2011
Finley hit over 300 career home runs.
You sure about that?
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
I guess the question is
the early Steve Finley or the later Steve Finley and we can leave it at that.
rlpete - September 27, 2011
I was referring
to the young Steve Finley.
I don’t want to insinuate anything, but Finley didn’t become a power hitter until he turned 30 and became a teammate of Ken Caminiti.
Josh Timmers - September 27, 2011
Point taken.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
Latos is exactly the kind of pitcher we should fleece another team for.
mrcubsfan - September 27, 2011
I don't think this a 70 win team
I believe that the Pirates this year even with their swoon are a slightly better team
Madison Cub Fan - September 27, 2011
I'm confused.
As of today, the 2011 Cubs are a 70-win team. I believe that’s just what they were projected to be.
daver - September 27, 2011 via iPhone app
Yeah.
As it turns out, that was pretty much spot on.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
...
santoswoodenlegs - September 27, 2011
Well played
n/t
Damen Jackson - September 27, 2011
I personally ( just my opinion don't have stats to back it up) think this is worse
than 2006 team which has less than 70 wins. So I am surprised they ended up with 70+ wins.
Madison Cub Fan - September 27, 2011
It definitely felt like 2006 all over again back in June.
But this team feels marginally better than that one to me, if only because of Starlin Castro and Matt Garza.
daver - September 27, 2011
Totally agree...
2006 Cubs would win a 7 game series in 6 games against the 2011 Cubs, IMO.
Easy Ed - September 27, 2011
Why?
daver - September 27, 2011
I'd be real excited about...
… seeing Les Walrond pitch against Rodrigo Lopez.
That would be ugly.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
It would be kind of fun...
…to use a computer simulator to play bad Cubs teams against other bad Cubs teams throughout history and see who comes out on top.
daver - September 27, 2011
The 1997 team would lose to the 2006 and this year's for sure.
chilango2 - September 27, 2011
My guess is..
… the 1962 team would come in last. Sure, they had Williams, Santo and Banks, but Banks had a bad year that year and Santo and Williams were still kids. That team had no pitching at all. Both the 1962 and 1966 teams lost 103 games, but the ’62 bunch was much worse.
Further, any of the teams from the late 90’s or 2000’s that were 95-loss teams would probably crush that squad.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
And this might be a fun thing to do in the offseason.
If anyone has any sort of computer simulator that could do this, let me know and we can set up some kind of bracket, and have an offseason tournament. I’ll write recaps and everything.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
I've had a lot of fun watching Campana this year...
I can’t remember the last time the Cubs had someone with that kind of speed. It’s great to see a guy taking a big lead at first, and you KNOW he’s going to steal second with no problem.
But I really hope the next manager realizes that Tony Campana is not a major league starter.
As much fun as it is to see him come into the game in a pinch-running situation, it’s painful to see his approach at the plate over the course of 4 at-bats. The time he hit an inside-the-park home run was one of the most exciting things that I watched this year, but mostly we’ve seen him lay down mediocre bunts and swing really late at fastballs. I love seeing him come into a game, but I don’t like seeing his name on the starting lineup.
Zachary - September 27, 2011
He did look bad
especially striking out on the pitch 5 feet in front on the plate.
rlpete - September 27, 2011
Bunting with a man on 3rd and less than 2 outs...
…with the infield 25 feet away from him AND the suicide squeeze NOT on, pretty much told me everything I needed to know about Campana. Quade didn’t seem too pleased by it either. Yep, he’s fast. Maybe soccer? Not baseball.
Easy Ed - September 27, 2011
Absolutely
but did Campana do this on his own or was there a sign? This was a terrible play and a pivotal moment in the game. If we score the game is completely different. If the kid did this on his own he should be benched for the last 2 games…………
If we only had Hubbs - September 27, 2011
You are right...
…he is not a starter and I’m not so certain he should even make the team in 2012. The guy can sure run though.
MPH73 - September 27, 2011
At least we are assured of a 7-10 draft pick.
Unfortunately, we may need 2-3 years of high draft picks to even get back to being a team with a bright future.
CubFanSince1970 - September 27, 2011
Yeah 7-10 ....
I wonder if their will be a Hayden type player avaible. (ok little to much snark) but I am a little leery of their pick
Madison Cub Fan - September 27, 2011
Top 5 hopefully
Two more losses and we will be assured of a #5 pick….one more loss and assured of #6!
cowboy2024 - September 27, 2011
I'm with you on Peña, Al.
As long as we can get a true clean-up hitter in some other position and a good # 5 hitter (could be Aramirs Ramírez). Peña’s high OBP, his bursts of power, plate discipline and outstanding defense make him an asset in the moneyball age. Don’t forget that he may also be saving other players in the infield from making a lot of errors.
Fraggin Judge - September 27, 2011
Well
Look at it the way it should be looked at. If you’re counting on your 1B to prevent a “lot of errors” and your team already has the worst fielding percentage in the majors, perhaps you should find better players at other positions instead of worrying about the defense of a 1B that despite the sugar-coating of OBP, is not a run-producer or a middle of the order hitter. When the Cubs finally stumble upon one again, you’ll know it immediately….but Pena is not that and his defense is simply a red herring that the rest of this team is so bumbling bad in the field that he somehow ends up appearing as a positive. Only the Cubs. Only the Cubs….
krummy12 - September 27, 2011
Very well said, krum...
…if EVERYONE fields their position at a league average (or better) fielding percentage, then we won’t have to settle for a good glove, .220, non-clutch hitter playing 1B…or a 40 RBI, everyday guy playing CF. “Accountability” should be the motto of the new GM.
Also…I’m not sure a 1B (which is a power position) who walks 100 times is all that great of a thing if he hits below .200 with RISP.
Easy Ed - September 27, 2011
But
He hits under the Mendoza line with RISP.
Clark Addison - September 27, 2011
I, for one, am over Pena.
100 walks. good job.
epsilon - September 27, 2011
Two things
1) I don’t want to say I’m okay with Pena coming back but it would…suck less…if they found a true middle of the order hitter (in addition to Ramirez), which I don’t think they will.
2)
Mark Riggins is waiting for his credit in helping with Casey…
Say Ramrod - September 27, 2011
pls pls pls Cubs next year getting a pitching coach that is better the who the Cubs picked as manager
Madison Cub Fan - September 27, 2011
Why not hire Joe Coleman?
He has been a MLB pitching coach before. He’s only 64 years old. Why not?
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
Actually
He’s been a major league bullpen coach before.
Josh Timmers - September 27, 2011
Actually
He was Joe Torre’s pitching coach in St. Louis from ’91 to ’94.
Spewoo - September 28, 2011
That would be cool...
…though I wonder if there would be too much of a conflict of interest with Casey presumably on the team. Then again, didn’t Moises Alou play on a team that his father managed?
daver - September 27, 2011 via iPhone app
wasnt duncan's kid on the cardinals forever?
but he wasnt a pitcher so not sure how that dynamic works…
epsilon - September 27, 2011
Latos Intolerant...Your best headline ever.
troutfishin - September 27, 2011
Thanks.
Sudden inspiration.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
You should milk it every time the Cubs face him.
daver - September 27, 2011
Hopefully, they beat him sometime and become "Latos tolerant".
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
Ugh...
I’d be surprised if 2% of people can stand it. Maybe Al should skim the population before making a whole decision on that.
Steven Schweickert - September 27, 2011
Those of us who dig it...
…should continue to butter him up.
daver - September 27, 2011
My stomach churns at the thought.
Steven Schweickert - September 27, 2011
Whey a minute you guys...
santoswoodenlegs - September 27, 2011
I think we need to moooove on from this.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
You're right...it's enough to make my blood curdle.
santoswoodenlegs - September 27, 2011
We've wasted one whole day on this.
Vermont Cubs Fan - September 27, 2011
I'm half-and-half on whether we should continue.
daver - September 27, 2011
Well I'm not going to cry over it.
santoswoodenlegs - September 27, 2011
These are all sorta cute...in a milky way
Easy Ed - September 27, 2011
I figured this would get cheesy.
Tat14 - September 27, 2011
Just a couple of comments.
If the Cubs win the last two, I still don’t see the “high note”.
Pena(with a reasonable contract), would be OK next year for a rebuilding team.
All you had to do was watch this team this year to know next year is going to be ugly. But that’s OK if they hire the right GM and staff. Starting in two days, it’s all about who the Cubs are going to be for the rest of our lives(at least for us older guys). Are they going to be a winning organization, with a cohesive plan or a team that puts bandaids on their holes each year to try and ’compete".
Rick B - September 27, 2011
Pena will be 34 next year
Is he really a good fit at $10M for a team that is rebuilding and has tons of holes in the roster. Let’s not forget that he also had 160 Ks. He hit .134 vs LHP and that’s what he’ll face 25% of the time. In the late innings of a close game we’ll see the opposing manager bring in that loogy just for him.
Pena has only 111 hits this year. That’s only half of Castro’s total. Walks are nice. But Pena isn’t a top of the order guy. His value is putting the ball in play and driving in runs. The money paid him is better spent elsewhere. Pena in 2012 will be no better than Pena 2011. That’s not what this team needs moving forward.
tharr - September 27, 2011
What's the other option?
Giving something over $25 million a year for six or seven years to Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols? Trusting that Bryan LaHair’s season in Iowa translates to the majors?
Maybe the Marlins will trade us Logan Morrison. But other than that, I’m not sure what our options going forward are other than Pena. And he wants to stay.
Josh Timmers - September 27, 2011
Agreed.
Pena doesn’t excite me but the Cubs cannot put out a starting lineup like last night for all of 2012. A middle of the order of Castro, LaHair and TBD?
Resigning Pena if they can’t get anyone else (Fielder, Morrison) would not hinder the rebuilding process nor would it block any up and comer. The Cubs have no first base prospects anywhere close in the minors.
So if not Pena, who? Loney? LaRoche from the Nats?
rlpete - September 27, 2011
How did Pena do last night?
We have 70 wins using Pena. Just how much of a factor was he? Are you suggesting the mere loss of Pena is going to drop us to 50 wins? LaHair seems to me to be a good risk with a $9.5M savings.
tharr - September 27, 2011
Well the loss of A-Ram and Pena and replacing them
with DJL and LaHair might push them to 50 wins. That is my main point here. I don’t like Pena much but the Cubs have to try and be competitive. They cannot field a team for all of 2012 that looks like the team from last night.
rlpete - September 27, 2011
But we're talking about Pena here
not Ramirez. Switching LaHair for for Pena only changes those 2 guys, not the entire lineup. The Cubs would not drop 20 wins simply from replacing Pena. The big loss based upon this year, is Ramirez.
tharr - September 27, 2011
I'd be very happy
to roll the dice with LaHair. How much worse can we reasonably expect him to be for a $9.5M savings? We’re a 70 win team with Pena. Suppose we only win 68 games next year with Bryan but we acquire some long term asset with the savings.
Pena is a great guy but he’s a band aid. That’s not how you rebuild. We know what pena will give us. We can only speculate about LaHair. At this stage of the organization’s rebuilding, it makes good sense to me to cut Pena and divert his salary to future needs.
tharr - September 27, 2011
I understand your point but
the Cubs have to try and be competitive. As for how bad he could be. I know it is small sample size but here is his last 14 days: .194 / .297 / .323.
rlpete - September 27, 2011
Pena's last 14 days
.152/.364/.364.
You’re right…..very small sample size.
tharr - September 27, 2011
were they trying to be competitive this year?
epsilon - September 27, 2011
Hendry was unfortunately.
rlpete - September 27, 2011
I don't disagree in principle with the "have to try and compete"
But it really hinders the overall plan.
Does keeping Ramirez and Pena (apparently meaning the Cubs are “trying to compete”) really help the team? They are both on the wrong side of their careers… so it isn’t likely they can substantially outproduce this season’s numbers. That means you have to look around the rest of the roster and find enough improvement to win ~20 more games next year. Where exactly is that coming from?
Replacing Ramirez and Pena with DJLM and LaHair is a recipe for a long season. But does it really, really matter if they lose 92 or 102 games in the grand scheme?
fsuapollo - September 27, 2011
For a big market team trying to sell tickets, it matters.
rlpete - September 27, 2011
Doubtful.
What’s the percentage of people going to the game to see those two guys play? 0.5%?
And you really think “hey everyone, we’re bringing back the same ‘heart’ of the line-up as last year” is going to sell tickets?? Seems more likely it would have the opposite effect.
Ticket sales will be far more dependent on price this year than who mans the corners. And if they are that worried about ticket volume, just hire Ryno.
fsuapollo - September 28, 2011
If they want...
…to be competitive, they better concentrate on pitching and defense first, because the lineup will have to be like the 27 Yankees to score enough runs to be competitive.
MPH73 - September 27, 2011
111 hits...
… and 100 walks.
Only two other Cubs have been on base that many times — Starlin Castro and Aramis Ramirez.
He plays plus defense, too.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
And yet
Here we are still at 90 losses.
Color me indifferent mostly on the matter, but I get the suspicion that you and I both know the dye has been cast on Pena coming back, so this is all pretty much moot. If it were up to me though, I’d say do better. You won’t get Fielder or Pujols, but this would be a very nice time to go and find a young potential cornerstone (even if it’s not a 1B), and spend that money there.
Damen Jackson - September 27, 2011
But the Cubs can do that too.
They have the Ramirez and Grabow money to start with. If keeping Pena prevented getting a young cornerstone I agree but the Cubs have to try and be competitive.
rlpete - September 27, 2011
You know
For all the talk about changes with the Cubs this off-season, the think that I’m most anxious to here about is the payroll budget for next season, I guess followed by any indication of where they’d like to place it for the next few years. I’ve played with some numbers, and my sense is that it’s going to surprise some people. But I also think that Al will get his ticket prices reduced as a side effect, so there’s that. Just my opinion though.
Damen Jackson - September 27, 2011
Goodness,
Does not pay to type fast. I meant “the thing” and “hear”
Damen Jackson - September 27, 2011
I'd rather see them spend the money on pitching.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
Agreed
We have no one who appears ready to be in the rotation soon that was in the high minors this year. Maybe Jackson. maybe not. The rest of our the guys seem to be a Wells/Coleman type….have to have excellent command or bad things happen.
tharr - September 27, 2011
Seems like the Cubs have been shopping at the Goodwill store the past few offseasons.
Ever since Jim Hendry went on his shopping spree at Best Buy, it’s been the Goodwill store for the Cubs. If only Jim Hendry hadn’t declined buying the extended warranty on the electronic’s and appliances. Now with no warranty, the electronic’s and appliances have broken down, and the Cubs are stuck with them.
SARCASM#1 iowan cubs fan - September 27, 2011
And no one has struck out 160 times
for the Cubs since 2003. Pena is paid to drive in runs. He has not done enough of that to justify his $10m salary. Just where would we be without him? 68 wins? He’s a minus runner.
tharr - September 27, 2011
Pena is paid to be a baseball player.
One of the reasons he hasn’t driven in runs is that no one else on the freaking team can draw a walk!
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
So the .177 BA RISP
was someone else’s fault? Let’s be honest. Pena has done horribly as a RBI player and that’s what he was brought here to do, not get on base for Byrd, Soto, Soriano and the rest of the team.
tharr - September 27, 2011
yeah people may not get on base before him,
but when he gets the chance he isnt exactly proving his detractors wrong.
epsilon - September 27, 2011
Pena has hit with RISP in other years.
That’s not necessarily something that would continue next year.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
sorry over it
if he couldnt hit more than 177 in a contract year…
epsilon - September 27, 2011
Why would you ever want someone
Who just performs better in a “contract year”?
Josh Timmers - September 27, 2011
i dont.
but someone who IS in a contract year is only hitting .177, what does that say? thats his best? thats what Boras is going to use going into negotiations?
epsilon - September 27, 2011
You're focused too much on one statistic, batting average....
… which does not reflect what the player can do.
Pena hit .196 last year, not .177. Further, he had a serious foot injury.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
.177 BA RISP
He’s an abject failure at the plate with men on base.
santoswoodenlegs - September 27, 2011
He wasn't in 2009.
Some of that is because of the team he’s on.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
How so?
shoemile - September 27, 2011
Please explain this statement.
santoswoodenlegs - September 27, 2011
I must admit...
I’d really like to hear this spin of an answer myself.
Damen Jackson - September 27, 2011
I didn't laugh in this thread til Damen popped up.
Then I laughed hard.
dtpollitt - September 27, 2011
His career RISP is only .241
He’s older and seeing fewer FBs. I’d guess he’s close to his projected number than you hope for. But for $10M, I want an RBI guy who isn’t declining in value and is susceptible to seeing a loogy late in the game. I’d rather base my year on his projection than your "maybe he’ll be better approach.
tharr - September 27, 2011
That career RISP is close to his career average.
Granted that he is in his decline years. But he still has value.
I admit he has not been good at it this year. That does not mean he can’t do it in the future.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
It more likely indicates
his skills are declining and the probability of a reversion to peak performance is not a good risk. In a down year, 2012, do the Cubs spend $10M for 1 or more years on Carlos? I can’t recommend that kind of investment when other needs are more pressing.
The Rays were happy to trade a $10M Pena for a $750K Kotchman. I’d guess Freidman doesn’t regret that decision. If he comes here, I’d bet Pena would be gone in 2012.
tharr - September 27, 2011
OK now you are discussing a different option.
I’d go with a third option other than Pena and LaHair. Maybe someone who actually has major league experience. James Loney?
rlpete - September 27, 2011
Um...
He hits behind Castro, Barney and Ramirez – I’d say he has his share of RBI opportunities. They’re getting on-base a decent amount at least.
John916 - September 27, 2011
Walks
Without sounding like Dusty with the base clogging line….those 100 walks are more hollow than 100 singles. I’m all for a patient approach and the 100 walks are fine…but for a middle of the order hitter, he better be driving in runs and hitting with RISP as well. If Pena could run, which he can’t, and hit at the top of the order, then the walks are meaningful. But in a vaccuum they sound a lot better than in the middle of a very soft order.
Fact of the matter is, the 1B in 2012 must produce more than what their 1B has done in 2011, defense be damned.
krummy12 - September 27, 2011
You sound like Dusty.
I’ll take a guy who can get on base as many times as Pena has.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
Me too...if the guy is a 2nd baseman who bats somewhere other than 4th or 5th in the lineup.
santoswoodenlegs - September 27, 2011
Pena and Moneyball
O whatever. Pena sucks. Ya – he gets on base at a decent clip, but so did Kosuke. Actually, Kosuke got on at a .374 clip with the cubs this year before the trade, beating Pena. He also was much better with RISP than Pena – nearly 100 points better, and with 2 outs, nearly 150 points better. I am so tired of hearing about Pena being a team guy – etc. Shut up – Pena blows. Anyone who WILL NOT attempt to go to the opposite field as a .220 hitter when the opposition plays an full shift is NOT a team player. If he can’t push to the opposite field, then how is he in the major leagues? I get if he was hitting 300 with Fielder like numbers for OBP, but he is not. Hell – Kosuke would be better at first.
As for Moneyball – not really a fan. Oakland is in about the weakest division in baseball, and has the easiest road to the post season with only 4 teams. They have made the post season 5 times since Beane took over, and only made it the championship series once – getting swept out that year. Half the team was on the roids – including Giambi – remember him? I find the glamorization of the new film ridiculous. They cheated their way to some divisional titles in a weak division, never made a World Series, but I’m supposed to believe this is the way of the future? If the Cubs go this way, this is the answer to winning it all? Doubt it.
Mark Twain had a most execellent quote: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
wytman - September 27, 2011
Disraeli
said it, and Twain quoted him.
Bad Dogs - September 27, 2011
man!
I honestly already forgot about Fukudome….awesome.
epsilon - September 27, 2011
This gets my vote for Rant of the Day.
daver - September 27, 2011 via iPhone app
Pena is a three-outcome guy
He’s going to walk, strikeout, or homer. The problem is that he does way too much of the middle one. When a pitcher does leave it in his wheelhouse, it is a site to see, but the other 500 at bats can be painful to watch.
Ross - September 27, 2011
Strikeouts by hitters are overrated.
They are just outs. It’s better than hitting into double plays all the time, right?
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
Nothing personal,
but I’ve never understood that rational. Good things happen when the ball gets put in play. Defenders makes miscues, allowing hitters to reach. Runners get advanced. A sac fly may allow a runner to score. A strikeout does what exactly?
Be wary of hitters who kill rallies with excessive strikeout totals. All outs are not the same.
Damen Jackson - September 27, 2011
And
Worse than advancing the runner on some other type of out, including driving him home.
Strikeouts in and of themselves are tolerable. Excessive strikeouts are pretty signfiicant negatives when you get into the 120’s and above….even more so if you don’t hit 40+ homers and/or drive in over 100 runs.
krummy12 - September 27, 2011
Yes and no
A strikeout is better than a double play, equivalent to a pop-up, and less productive than a ground ball or a long fly ball. Runner on second and nobody out? I don’t want to see a strikeout.
Ross - September 27, 2011
You forgot his bunts!
BUNTS!!!!
RiskyBusiness - September 27, 2011
Nice
Easy Ed - September 27, 2011
Draft pick count down
Unlike last season, I’m not cheering for the Cubs to lose games in the last series to get a better draft pick. The draft next year is projected to be weak and there’s no real consensus on who the top players are. Any pick 5 through 10 is likely to be as good as another.
But right now the Cubs are tied with the Padres for the fifth pick in the draft. The Cubs hold the draft tiebreaker on San Diego (which is the 2010 record). Houston has the top pick wrapped up and the Twins are locked in at #2. Seattle and Baltimore will definitely pick before us. Oakland and Colorado will definitely pick after us as they lose to tie-break. If we win out and Pittsburgh loses out, they pick before us.
So the Cub could pick anywhere between 5th and 9th.
On the other side, there are five teams with 71 or 72 wins right now. So the Cubs could pick anywhere between four (if the Cubs lose ou
Josh Timmers - September 27, 2011
Oops
That last line got cut off and I didn’t proofread (shame!) I meant to say we could pass Kansas City, Florida and Pittsburgh.
Josh Timmers - September 27, 2011
A top-five pick
would almost make this season bearable, at least in retrospect.
Damen Jackson - September 27, 2011
We'll get the #5 pick
If we lose our last two games. We could split with SD and still get the #5 pick if KC wins at least once.
Josh Timmers - September 27, 2011
KC is playing Minnesota.
So yeah, they’ll win at least one.
chilango2 - September 27, 2011
And maybe a compensation pick for Aramis.
daver - September 27, 2011 via iPhone app
Ramirez
is Type B, so we’d only get a pick in the comp round.
The Type A free agent we have is Ryan Dempster, but from the sound of it he’s going to pick up his option.
Josh Timmers - September 27, 2011
Cubs should trade Zambrano for Ozzie and flip Ozzie to the fish for minor leaguers.
drodd - September 27, 2011
Uh, I believe Ozzie already has a deal in place.
daver - September 27, 2011 via iPhone app
LaHair - maybe not the answer
But possibly a useful piece in the puzzle. He’s left handed and he can generate a lot of power with a short quick swing. He’s serviceable in the outfield and could work in a platoon.
RiskyBusiness - September 27, 2011
I see very little evidence that LaHair is serviceable in the outfield.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
LaHair has been worth more for $500K
than Pena has been for $10M. He has the fewest hits of all qualified 1B in the majors. We have 70 wins. Just how valuable was Pena the past year? How many wins is he worth for $9.5M compared to LaHair?
tharr - September 27, 2011
hE PLaYs gOOd DeFeNsE AnD wALks ALoT ANd iS a nICe Guy.
santoswoodenlegs - September 27, 2011
Ooooh,
you are so, so clever!
Bad Dogs - September 27, 2011
So? He has the third most walks of all qualified 1B. Why is the number of hits relevant, but the number of walks not?
Pena is a 2.4 WAR player. LaHair has put up 0.4 WAR. LaHair has certainly NOT been “worth more”.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
Pena put up slightly above average WAR in 152 games...whee!
LaHair has only played in 19 games….you’re not really going down this road are you?
santoswoodenlegs - September 27, 2011
Pena makes 20 times as much
but his WAR is only 6 times as much with far fewer PAs. Do the math.
How many RBIs did those BB achieve? There is a huge difference in walks vs singles.
tharr - September 27, 2011
That's not what the OP said.
Al Yellon - September 27, 2011
What is OP?
tharr - September 27, 2011
It's hard to compare the two in terms of value...
…because of their vastly differing playing times.
daver - September 27, 2011
Not true Daver, it seems pretty easy for tharr and Al.
santoswoodenlegs - September 27, 2011
I want to thank you all for very interesting comments today.
chilango2 - September 27, 2011
You must be happy about the Ozzie thing.
You’ve stated a certain dislike for him in the past, no?
daver - September 27, 2011 via iPhone app
Oh sweet merciful crap, I'm so happy.
He’s going to hell (aka Miami)!!! I’m sure they’ll appreciate him there.
And maybe, just maybe, I can stop despising the Sox so bad.
chilango2 - September 27, 2011
Pena also leads the league in check swings (laughs).
But when I think about it, if Pena reduced his check swing strikes on pitches outside the zone, he might have at least 10 more base-on-balls than he does now.
#1 iowan cubs fan - September 27, 2011
Latos reminded me of Sutcliffe
They have similar builds, though I think Sutcliffe was a little lighter at the same age. But the mechanics are very similar.
I was impressed with Dolis – he threw so easily and was hitting 95. Liked what I saw there.
And Coleman was pitching, throwing strikes, changing speeds. That was outstanding to watch.
Ross - September 27, 2011
I liked Dolis as well.
First time I’ve ever seen him pitch — seems like he has a live arm, decent repertoire and good mound presence. I hope he makes the bullpen next season.
daver - September 27, 2011
todays article
i have enjoyed reading bleed cubbie blue all season thanx for the great place for fans to share thoughts and follow the minor leagues which i really enjoy but dont forget the great batting average with runners in scoring position which is somewhere in the 170-180 range the worst in baseball; im sure jim hendry if still here would think that warrants a multiyear deal at about 10 -15 million a year look at berkman what the redbirds got for the same price thats why we r the cubs.
notcubbiewubbie - September 27, 2011
So is this a Cubs website
or a fricken commercial. The ads are getting worse
Hammer - September 27, 2011
One computer has ad block the other doesn't aat our apt
Ad block is really awesome
Madison Cub Fan - September 27, 2011
It's a pretty decent show.
shoemile - September 27, 2011
On the bright side, the Cardinals lost to the Astros!
#1 iowan cubs fan - September 27, 2011
Best title of the year.
dtpollitt - September 27, 2011
Kids suck, Vets suck.
Organization is a train wreck.
shoemile - September 27, 2011
your insulting train wrecks
Madison Cub Fan - September 27, 2011
Depressivo...
eths - September 27, 2011 via mobile
Why do we assume that the kids 'suck'
just because they had one bad game against a VERY good pitcher? Do we need to remember ‘small sample size’ here?
NobodySpecial - September 27, 2011
You have their minor league numbers and small sample size major league numbers too.
They will tell you something.
rlpete - September 27, 2011
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