Denis Poroy - Getty Images
You may never see this again: Aramis Ramirez of the Chicago Cubs rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
Petco Park in San Diego has a reputation as being a difficult stadium to hit home runs in; this year's park factor list shows it as being 23rd among the 30 MLB parks in HR park factor (Wrigley Field is right in the middle at 15th).
Nevertheless, it was home runs that won Tuesday night's game for the Cubs, 6-2 over the Padres. Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano both hit their 26th home runs of the season. For Aramis, it could be his last in a Cubs uniform, unless he hits one or more this evening. Personally, I hope the new general manager quickly locks A-Ram up to a new contract. The Cubs can't do better than that at third base for the next two or three years, and he has been the best offensive performer at third base in the NL this season.
As for Soriano's blast, I thought Gordon Wittenmyer (who tweeted way too many of Mike Quade's nicknames last night) was funny:
There's often truth in humor. Maybe there's a team that would pay 20% of Soriano's deal for him to DH for the next three years (hellooooo, Yankees?). Some props for prescience to Len & Bob, who had just finished mentioning that Soriano was 5-for-11 lifetime with two doubles and a homer vs. Padres reliever Chad Qualls when Sori hit his blast over the wall in deep center field.
Meanwhile, Matt Garza made just one major mistake in Tuesday's game, and that was hit by Kyle Blanks of the Padres for a two-run double in the second inning, giving San Diego a 2-0 lead. But that was all Garza allowed; he wound up throwing a large number of pitches (122) in seven innings, and then was removed trailing 2-1. Soriano's home run in the top of the eighth put the Cubs in position to get Garza his 10th win of the year, and they added a pair in the ninth on a two-run single by Blake DeWitt. Garza has been outstanding since August 1; in 11 starts he has posted a 6-2 W/L record (and more importantly, the Cubs are 9-2 in those starts) with a 2.24 ERA, a WHIP of 1.152 and just five home runs allowed in 76.1 innings. Do that for a whole season and you're the "ace" everyone loves to have.
Anyway, Soriano's blast took the game out of a save situation, but Carlos Marmol had been warming up, and so Carlos Marmol came into the game. (Props to Sean Marshall for striking out two Padres after Jeff Samardzija had left him with a mess in the eighth).
There doesn't seem to be any way Marmol comes into a game these days without creating some drama. He threw 31 pitches -- only 17 strikes -- and issued a pair of walks. Len & Bob noted on the CSN telecast that hitters are simply waiting Marmol out now, because they know he's not throwing many strikes. After those walks, Marmol ran the count to 3-2 on Jason Bartlett before getting him to swing and miss at a slider to end the game.
So the Cubs go into the final game of the season Wednesday night at 71-90; I know many here felt that this number of wins was about where this team could be projected. Turns out you were right. It would still be nice to end the season with another win.
0 recs | 324 comments
AL, why do you consider Garza only a #2-3 starter?
Seems like a #1 ace to me.
ronsanto10 - September 28, 2011
because of stuff and things!
epsilon - September 28, 2011
Well, he has pitched like an ace since August 1.
Let’s hope he can continue this next year.
Al Yellon - September 28, 2011
He isn't on the level of the game's top aces.
There are really only a handful in baseball.
Dcr18 - September 28, 2011
Maybe his number is 2 1/2
The smell of fear. Where’s umpire Frank Drebbin when ya need him?
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
Ricketts needs to fire Quade on Thursday
it doesn’t take a new GM to figure out he needs to go. Make a statement this year was completely unacceptable.
MikeJW - September 28, 2011
Probably should've
been fired many Thursdays ago. Would it really accomplish something besides slightly pleasing the fans?
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
For all his foibles, I will still miss ARAM if he leaves.
We really need to lock him up for at least two years. No one out there (at least this year) who is better.
CubFanSince1970 - September 28, 2011
I won't miss him
Position players making $12M-$18M need to produce the entire season, not 2/3rds or not when the pressure is off. Sorry Aram, don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.
1 down (Dome), 2 to go (Aram, Fonz).
People will say, “Rami is the best 3rd baseman since Ronnie”. They’re right, but then look at some of the names Rami is compared to, would you? One should not compare his teams players to run-of-the-mill or AAAA players, they should compare to the best players. And the best players, produce when it counts most. They produce when others on their team are not producing. They also carry their team when it is most needed. Rami simply does not do that often enough to justify a $16M salary for 2012.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
yeah
what a bum, he never came through in the clutch
WGNstatic - September 28, 2011
Ahh, don't bother.
Some people will complain about every player. A-Ram has been solid for the Cubs for quite a few years.
The whole thing that he is only good in August and September when the pressure is off is idiotic. Prince Fielder’s worst career month is April oo. Cubs should knock him off their list too. After all, he only hits 3 HR’s in a game after Milwaukee clinches.
Would I sign A-Ram to a 3 year deal, probably not but I would definitely try and bring him back for 2012.
rlpete - September 28, 2011
but he won't come back for a year
If that was the debate, I’d be all for it. He wants a longer contract
Madison Cub Fan - September 28, 2011
Is Fukudome
the only player in history that his best month is April?
epsilon - September 28, 2011
Get the picks.
Use them wisely.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Good teams...
would have 1 or more of players like this:
player whose best month is April
player whose best month is May
player whose best month is June
player whose best month is July
player whose best month is August
player whose best month is September
and enough players that can play well in October
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
That would be quite an interesting and complicated way to build a team.
daver - September 28, 2011
There's more than one formula for success
The Cubs had a hundred years to find one that works, they should not dismiss any potential idea.
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
The Cubs may not have a choice
Ramirez is the best 3B in this year’s FA market, by far. He had a really good offensive season overall, showing he is over the injuries from 2009-2010. He could easily get 3/$45M.
ClarkFan - September 30, 2011
How'd that work
Here:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/chc/year/2007/seasontype/3/split/29/chicago-cubs
or here:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/chc/year/2008/seasontype/3/split/19/chicago-cubs
Yup 2 for 23, sounds like a winner to me. Boy I’m glad you’re not my GM.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
Take a look at his numbers
Stats
I just don’t get it.
He has been an elite level 3B for the Cubs. What’s more, there is nobody set to replace him in the immediate future and there are lots of holes to fill in elsewhere on the diamond.
WGNstatic - September 28, 2011
Lots of holes everywhere.
Is Rami worth 50 million-ish for 3 years? I say it can be better spent elsewhere (TOR P or 1B)
timh815 - September 28, 2011
You're basing your decision on the Cubs ...
having a big payroll. You don’t know that yet, none of us know that.
$16M is way too much. They’re going to eat Z’s salary one way or another. They have to figure out 1st base. Fonz is going to cost north of $15M for the next 3 years no matter what they do with him. Then there’s this thing called a pitching staff to upgrade.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
They are owed about 30 million between the two next year
Plus multiple holes, so where does the 3 year 30 mill come from?
Madison Cub Fan - September 28, 2011
Check it again
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/chicago-cubs_112114177768677294.html
For just 2012 (I don’t know the ‘13 vest on Z’s deal), Fonz and Z are owed $36M combined.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
Zambrano vests
if he finishes top 4 in the Cy Young Award voting next season. Not likely.
Josh Timmers - September 28, 2011
He also has to be healthy at the end of 2012.
Like you said, the terms of vesting are unlikely to happen.
Al Yellon - September 28, 2011
I left that out
Because as long as the odds are that Zambrano finished top 4 in the Cy Young race next season, the odds of him finishing top 4 while being on the disabled list to end the season are so long that it boggles the mind.
Josh Timmers - September 28, 2011
give me a break
First off, Aram is hitting .280 with RISP this year and hit .278 with RISP last year. In case you hadn’t noticed, the rest of our team is hitting like .032 this year with men on base so this argument about him not being clutch is baseless, even beyond the stats.
Second, if you have any desire to see this team competitive before 2014 we need him back. The alternatives are garbage on a team that can’t afford to step backwards with offensive production. Compare his $16m salary to Carlos Pena at $10m and frankly Ramirez is a better bargain by a factor of several multiples.
I don’t even know what you mean about the pressure being off. The pressure was off like 3 weeks into the season when it was clear this team was not going to be a playoff competitor.
BeltwayCubsFan - September 28, 2011
You can have Ramirez
The Cubs are thirty games under .500 the last two years with him. He did not show up at all the first three months of the year, enough of this roster and nucleus. Time to rebuild, it’s what we have to do and I’m not giving this guy 36 million over three years when this team is mediocre anyway. No way.
MikeJW - September 28, 2011
Good thing it isn't your money then
BeerCub - September 28, 2011
Al, I'm disappointed in your Ramirez stance
you repeatedly said the first three months that he needed to go, I remember during the Kansas City series you said he might even retire. Maybe because you sit out there 81 times a year clouds your judgement on rebuilding? That’s what needs to be done here, not keep paying aging players millions of dollars when we aren’t winning with them.
MikeJW - September 28, 2011
Aramis Ramirez isn't the reason the Cubs aren't winning.
I can change my mind, can’t I?
You interested in seeing Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker platoon at 3B in 2012? I’m not.
Al Yellon - September 28, 2011
i'm not interested in spending 40 million dollars
for a team that is not contending, period, we need to rebuild, Al. If you weren’t out there every day I bet you would feel differently.
MikeJW - September 28, 2011
Has nothing to do with whether I'm at the ballpark or not.
This team can contend in a year or two. To do so, they need an Aramis Ramirez.
Al Yellon - September 28, 2011
How much on FAs in the off season
ballpark. Including Rami. 2012 season only.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Honestly, I don't know.
Depends, in part, on what kind of relief (if any) they can get on the Z contract.
Al Yellon - September 28, 2011
Any shot we can get Rami, a good SP, and a primo 1B?
No, sez I.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Probably not.
But two of the three? Probably.
Al Yellon - September 28, 2011
I'd prefer
a 1B that might be around 5 years, and no Casey Coleman as the 5. Mix and match Flaherty and whoever at 3B.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Nope, not with this salary structure
They have to shed money. Keeping throwing bad money after bad money will get you what we just saw the last 4-5 years. A couple division titles then, flame out.
Next will come the argument about first back-to-back division titles, playoffs blah, blah, blah. How many championships?
The problem with a notable portion of this fan base is they accept mediocrity and compare to the dregs instead of the elites.
And they need even more than just the positions you cite. Like a RF’er, another SP and another reliever. I fear Wood is gone and Marmol has mechanics issues that can’t seem to be consistent.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
Why do you fear Wood is gone?
Agreed on Marmol, they should have traded him at the deadline.
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
Cubs won't want to sign him
and he’s supposed to be on record of saying he’d retire if the Cubs don’t bring him back.
I think he’s a steal at $1M+ but I guess we’ll see, eh?
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
If he'd retire, then I'm sure he'd come back for another
bargain salary, the Cubs would be fools not to bring him back on a year-to-year basis for <~2/year. Plus, if you trade Marmol, which may not be possible, given his new deal, and the abundance of closers on the FA market, who’s going to close next year?
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
He'll come back
for a small raise. He wants to pitch and he wants to pitch for the Cubs. He doesn’t care about money anymore. Why wouldn’t he re-sign for $1.5 to $2 million?
Josh Timmers - September 28, 2011
he would
it’s whether or not the Cubs want him back. Who knows how things will shake out with the new GM.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
If he's willing to sign for ridiculously cheap again
I can’t imagine any GM not wanting him back.
Josh Timmers - September 28, 2011
OK, here goes.
I think Wood will be back. Mark it down.
Al Yellon - September 28, 2011
I am.
with their salaries. New GM works all of 2012 to make 2013 relevant…count me in. i’ve waited 30 years to see a World Series, i can wait another year.
epsilon - September 28, 2011
And here inlies the problem with so many folks arguement around here supporting Rami
Why, why, why are you comparing him to run-of-the-mill guys? You’re comparing an 8-figure salary guy to guys who could be argued as AAAA players.
Rami is one of the reasons the Cubs are not winning. He’s part of an organization that failed to produce to expectations. Along with the ex-GM, the manager, a certain whack-job of a-soon-to-be-ex-pitcher, an overpaid LF’er, an ex overpaid RF’er, plus the loss of a few other guys to injury, though that last part is further to the right of the pareto chart than the left side.
Rami doesn’t produce when he’s relied on most. He can’t carry a team nearly often enough. He should be able to more often than he does.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
What?
He was the best player on the 2004, 2007, and 2008 Cubs (the best teams they’ve had this decade). He was clutch down the stretch for the 2003 Cubs and had a productive playoffs. He hit a clutch grand slam against the Marlins and had an OPS of 1.029!
Yes, he was a no-show in 2007 and 2008, bus who wasn’t (with the exception of Lee). To say that he doesn’t produce when relied on the most isn’t totally accurate when looking at his entire tenure with the team. And he is still capable of carrying the team, but he needs to be surrounded with other players who are capable of producing as well.
For the record, I could go either way on Ramirez. The Cubs really have no viable in house options, unless we wanna see some platoon of DeWitt/Baker or DeWitt/Vitters, etc… I would only give him 2-3 years guaranteed, no more. Part of me also believes that the organization needs to clean house and move on from this generation of players (Z, Ramirez, Dempster, Soriano, Hill, and others like Lee and Theriot before them).
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
Honus Wagner was good a hundred years ago
Mebbe we should sign him.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Hmmm...
Yeah…
Let’s see, All Star selection in 2011, vs. dead.
seems like a fair comparison.
WGNstatic - September 28, 2011
50 million for Rami?
No thanks.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Agreed
Rather see half that put towards building the ML system and teaching kids how to bunt, bat with 2 strikes, play solid defence etc than throwing it away on a player whose likely to have at least 2 extended DL stints the next 3 seasons.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
You're missing his point
and who cares about an ASG selection. More so, wasn’t he asked after someone else already bowed out?
He may have been great in 2003. But that’s 8 years ago. What has he done lately? I look at the 07/08 LDS, a combined 2/23.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
how about checking some stats
2009 he batted .425 with RISP, and in 2007 and 2008 he hit over .300 with RISP. This whole thing about not being clutch since 2003 is a joke, stop launching grenades.
BeltwayCubsFan - September 28, 2011
2/23 in the '07 & '08 LDS combined
The only grenade was what he left at the plate. Success is measured in championships.
Now you check some stats. You check his 6 LDS games from 07/08. And don’t tell me the whole team stunk. The whole team is not made up of $15M players. Thinking like you is why the Cubs are a national laughing stock, across all sports.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
Soriano.
2 for 27, Listen the whole team tanked in 07/08. I like Ramy, I hope he stays. But those chances are about 10%. He will walk. Then we can look at DeWitt, DJ or Baker at 3rd, I can’t wait. 90 losses this year, wait till next year.
Grockcubs - September 28, 2011
You just did it
Whole team tanked. The whole team is not made up of $15M players.
OK so you referenced Fonz (forgot about the 2/27, thanks). Hey look at that: The two biggest position player salary-wise were 4/50 combined in 07/08 LDS.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
Actually, the 2007-2008 teams were largely $10M+ players
And they all choked like dogs.
ClarkFan - September 30, 2011
The 2003 NLCS were the highest stakes games the Cubs have played since
1984, Ramirez delivered. You said “he doesn’t produce when relied on the most.” That was a situation when he was relied on, and he delivered.
In 2007 &2008, despite what he did in the playoffs, if a game was on the line, I wanted Ramirez up at the plate over anyone else on the roster.
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
So you give him the $$$
We don’t know what TR is looking @ budget wise next year, do you want Aram as the main signing of the amount of $$$ ?
Madison Cub Fan - September 28, 2011
No, but to say that he doesn't deliver when it counts is not accurate.
I’m really just trying to defend Ramirez’s production as a Cub in his career..
I would try to resign him for 2 years at 12M/year, with a club option for a third year. If he declines, thanks for your time Aramis.
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
If you look at his WAR,
he *might be able to get $15/year on the open market, if you look at his WAR over the last 5 seasons however, $15M would be too much. He deserves more in the ballpark of 10 to 12M, which could be feasible and perhaps even include some performance incentives. But at this stage of his career, its possible that years are just as important as annual salary, and I can’t see the Cubs giving him the years he’s likely seeking.
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
2/23 in the LDS in 07/08
2003 is so far back. Eight seasons. That’s way more than half of the time nearly all players even play, let along at a high level. If the Cubs made the playoffs in ’09 or ’10 and he did that, followed up by producing earlier this season, then maybe.
He’s been injured lately, hasn’t carried the team [recently] when it counted, getting up there in age and simply not worth $16M. $10M-$12M ?? For a couple more years? Perhaps. A 3-4 year deal north of $15M per? Not so much.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
So you endorse Rami at $16M
Now how does rest of your budget shake out?
Do you really think the Cubs are going to have the same or even higher payroll next year? If so, then you may luck out. But for the time being $16M is way too much for an aging guy, who’s oft-injured and at times is just along for the ride.
Sorry, too much money.
Comparing him to DeWitt and Baker is like saying last year Tyler Colvin was an option to D-Lee at 1st.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
Subtractions
The contracts of Fukudome, Pena, and Bradley/Silva are all coming off the books. That is more than enough money to add a couple of high end FA talent without seeing an increase in payroll. As I recall that is about $35M. There could be some minor savings on Zambrano or Soriano’s contracts as well (not much, $10M saved between them would be an absolute top).
So, yeah there will be money to spend, so I would ask you how you would spend it. Frankly, opening a gaping hole at 3B seems like it would be a huge step backwards.
WGNstatic - September 28, 2011
K
35 mil. Where are you spending it?
Rami would be 15 Prince or Wilson would be 18-20. Pick one or the other. You’re done.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
No, 35 Mil, doesn't count Ramirez
If you let ramirez leave then that number goes up to about 50 Million. The 35 is based only on the guys listed above.
WGNstatic - September 28, 2011
If we will keep the big league budget the same.
I don’t think we will.
A bunch is be shifted to the future for the Draft bonuses, I think.
2 biggie FA, and a few smaller ones. Take Rami, that’s one. Then a 1B or a TOR pitcher. Or.
I’d rather a thumper 1B, a pitcher, and a few minor FAs.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
I could be wrong.
But I don’t think so.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
I'll take Fielder, a pitcher, and some lower tier FA's.
But what pitcher? Do you think Wilson is A) Likely to come here and B) Is actually deserving of the $ he’s going to command? Because beyond Wilson, this FA class is pretty thin on pitching. Would you want Edwin Jackson pitching behind Garza and Dempster?
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
I don't want Casey Coleman
as the 5.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Few would,
assuming Z is gone, and not counting Cashner (because he’s not reliable at this point in time), that leaves the Cubs with 3 starters going into next season: Garza, Dempster, Wells. They now need 2. I don’t see them going after Wilson, he’ll be too pricey. I can see them going after 2 middle of the rotation pitchers, like Jackson or Nolasco. Maybe swing a deal for Gavin Floyd or John Danks.
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
I don't think Ramirez is bad...
but he’s not going to be worth the $/years we wants. If this organization is really going to stop the never-ending cycle of stupidity with bad contracts…it has to start somewhere. I’d give Ramirez a two year deal at the most…and it would have to be for less than the $16 million option he currently has.
santoswoodenlegs - September 28, 2011
But who ever ends up @ first might be making the $$ Pena is now
so that I see as a draw.
Madison Cub Fan - September 28, 2011
Blackhawk24 your arguments are getting weak
Aging? Lance Berkman is aging, how did that work out for STL? I respect your right to have an opinion but if you want to clean house for a 3-5 year rebuilding plan that’s fine. That’s a respectable stance to take, just don’t come complaining to the board when the team is dropping 90+ games a year until 2015.
BeltwayCubsFan - September 28, 2011
But for as many Berkman's
how many on the otherside of the coin that have been overpaid? The list of overpaid aging FA is much longer than the ones that have turned out to be a good deal.
Madison Cub Fan - September 28, 2011
1 year deals are fine
3 year deals, not so much.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
exactly
and the Cubs have a history of overpaying. I’d rather try for 1st baseman in his prime than a 3rd baseman who still might be good 3rd baseman but he is not in his prime @ this point in his career.
Madison Cub Fan - September 28, 2011
we agree
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Didn't say "clean house"
Paying Rami $16M on the ‘12 option for or signing him to a 3-4 year new deal that pays about the same as he’s paying now is not wise money.
The latter is even more egregious than just picking up the option. A 3 year deal would then mean some $35M tied up on 2 aging players, each with their overall production in a decline. Not wise money. And that has been the Cubs biggest issue for some years now.
What’s weak is everyone here saying $14M-$16M is OK for a guy who is aging, oft-injured, loafs at times and has never carried the team on his back for an extended period of time.
It’s always easy to spend someone else’s money, eh?
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
Part of the reason?
yes, I ’ll give you that, but the only reason? I highly doubt that.
The reasons the Cubs haven’ t won in the last two years?
Where do I begin…
Castro – Too many errors for his position, still a lot to learn.
Barney – merely a singles hitter, low OBP.
Byrd – only a first half producer and doesn’t take walks.
Soriano – can’t run anymore, no plate discipline, low OBP, not an RBI guy.
Soto – Hot and cold (mostly cold with RISP), low BA and RBI.
Lee/Pena – good defense, but little production with RISP (especially for a 3-4 hitter).
Colvin – no plate discipline, avg defender, low BA and horrible hitting with RISP.
DeWitt/Baker/Hill – meh!
Dempster – miscast as an ace, walks too many.
Big Z – hyper volitale, inconsistent, spends too much time on restricted list.
Wells – inconsistent, and injured.
Garza – good stuff, no problem here.
Coleman – fringe MLB talent
Spell-check – Cold last year, good this year.
Marmol – crazily inconsistent, and becoming unreliable in critical situations.
Rest of bullpen – ok at times, but mostly meh!
Ramirez – lead team in hitting with RISP last 2 years, consistent RBI man entire career. On downside of career? Probably, but who replaces those numbers next year?
CubFanSince1970 - September 28, 2011
You have a problem with Sean Marshall?
Doggie Stalker - September 28, 2011
Nope, just forgot to mention him.
sorry!
CubFanSince1970 - September 28, 2011
Well, Al
I don’t agree. My idea of good baseball sense is not paying a (at least perceived) lackadaisical and injury-prone Ramirez 12-15 million annually to play into his mid 30s on a team that already has problems. But I don’t want to dismiss your idea out of hand, either. So maybe I should ask (in a nutshell) how you see the Cubs performance-wise over the next few seasons. Re-signing Ramirez isn’t in a vacuum, so perhaps you’ve got some larger thoughts on team direction that I’m just not fully appreciating.
Damen Jackson - September 28, 2011
The "injury prone" Ramirez has played in 147 games this year.
Got another strawman?
Al Yellon - September 28, 2011
The shoulder issue
has come up a number of times over his career, and he has struggled with various issues over the last few season. They may not have limited his games, but I do believe that they did his effectiveness.These things don’t improve in your 30’s.
But hey, no problem. I ask you to elaborate on your thesis, and you respond with an insult. We’re good.
Damen Jackson - September 28, 2011
Calling your argument bad is not insulting you
If you can’t separate your arguments from yourself, you really don’t need to be debating, on the internet or elsewhere.
NobodySpecial - September 28, 2011
What?
8 (full) seasons in Chicago. Games played: 145, 123, 157, 132, 149, 82, 124, 148.
Half the time he plays 145+ and half the time he plays 132 or fewer.
So yes, that is “injury prone”, even if he was “healthy” this year.
fsuapollo - September 28, 2011
Yeah,
a scarecrow in Ogle County.
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
With the Cubs
there’s not just one person to blame for their performance.
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
Garza,
because we gave up to much for him and he’s not an ace.
/sarcasm
epsilon - September 28, 2011
Ramirez WAR--how does that factor in retaining him?
Fangraphs: (keep in mind injuries affect this obviously)
2008—-4.7
2009—2.2
2010—.3
2011—3.5
So we gain three and a half wins next year if we keep him
Will three wins matter next year?
Also—can we get someone who is 1.75 WAR for a lot cheaper?
I do not know the answer—just wondering
gettysburg35 - September 28, 2011
Clean house, including ARam
With our age, bad contracts (Soriano, Dempster—who I like but who is overpaid based on recent performance) and suspect starting pitching, I think it’s likely we’re going to be pretty bad for the next two years. I’d rather not spend the money on a player who is valuable when motivated but too often unmotivated, and who is old enough that he is unlikely to be around when the team returns to respectability. I’d rather try a cheaper option at third next year (LeMahieu?) to see what he can do, and save some money to spend when we are a piece or two short of returning to contention.
TPM08 - September 28, 2011
And Zambrano, too--duh
TPM08 - September 28, 2011
DJ at third
Yikes. I am sure a nice kid, but you could see a line of .275 ave and a OPS of maybe .730. No power.
Grockcubs - September 28, 2011
But he's from LSU, so he's gotta be good,
oh wait, Hendry no longer works for the Cubs.
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
And the Cubs already have someone with that exact stat-line: Blake DeWitt.
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
DeWitt likely has more power than DJL.
rlpete - September 28, 2011
And a higher BGA,
(beard growing ability)
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
I hear you, but...
I didn’t say I thought DJ would provide ARam production. I said I thought we were going to stink, and DJ is cheap. I don’t want to pay what I suspect Ramirez will want if we’re going to be bad anyway. If we had the cash to go out and sign a couple of front-line starters and contend next year, then I’d be all for keeping Ramirez. But we don’t, we’re not, and therefore I don’t see the point of keeping around a guy who will make a lot of money and might help us win 70 games instead of 66.
Go young, go cheap, rebuild, and have some cash in the pot to go get someone when it will make the difference between 90 wins and some lesser number.
TPM08 - September 28, 2011
Who?
This is the problem with that philosophy. There’s no guarantee the piece you “need” will be available then. Heck, there’s no guarantee you’ll even be competitive then.
Not Bruce Froemming - September 28, 2011
And there's no guarantee...
that Ramirez won’t get hurt, that he’ll put up the numbers he did in the second half this year, that a giant asteroid won’t hit Wrigley Field.
I’m not anti-Ramirez. We wouldn’t have made the playoffs in the past decade without him. But we haven’t won in the last few years with him, he’s getting old, he’s become a poor fielder who doesn’t run balls out, and he’s going to want all-star money for three or four years.
We’ve got Castro and a couple of pitchers to build around. If we can get a draft pick or two when Ramirez signs elsewhere we should grab it.
TPM08 - September 28, 2011
OK fine....but
Who do you suppose replaces the guys you want jettisoned? I mean seriously, with all of their many flaws, these guys are still proven major leaguers and unless you back up the truck and dump piles of cash elsewhere, which seemingly isn’t one of your options considering your “overpaid” comment, you don’t have anyone to fill their flawed shoes. Please, please, PLEASE, don’t suggest that the organzation can fill these spots from within. That coudl be the most illogical suggestion on record. This organization’s minor league system is completely bereft of difference-making major league starters. Please don’t suggest random replacement level players, or worse, like LeMahieu, LaHair, any other guy with Le- or La- prefixes, Vitters, Ha….or just about anyone else toiling in one of the worst systems in baseball.
Two years of futility on tap? If they don’t spend the money to acquire legitimate major leaguers, try five to ten….or more.
krummy12 - September 28, 2011
The kids, the kids.
Don’t you see the Cubs should play the kids for the next two years and then when Barney, Campana, Colvin, LeHair, DJL, Vitters, Rusin, Struck and the like are ready to lead the Cubs to glorious victory the GM is supposed to go out find an ace, and a middle of the order to lead the Cubs to a WS Championship.
It is the most illogical theory I’ve ever heard. The Cubs can rebuild and try and be competitive by signing smart free agents. After watching Fielder last night, I can’t understand why anyone would not want him on the Cubs just because the Cubs aren’t ready to contend in 2012. He was crushing the ball. If anyone missed the highlights, they are worth watching.
rlpete - September 28, 2011
yeah, i dont get the Fielder Ire
for all intents and purposes, he seems like a great teammate, passionate about the game…I want him. contending or not.
epsilon - September 28, 2011
Most importantly
He can flat out hit. Something that this organization sorely lacks all around the diamond with the exception of Ramirez.
krummy12 - September 28, 2011
Sign a draft class
like we did the next 12 years. Every year.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
No argument but that doesn't prevent trying to make the major league team good as well.
They aren’t mutually exclusive as some seem to think.
rlpete - September 28, 2011
Throwing big money after
aging vets doesn’t work very well.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Perhaps
But playing replacement level players, or worse, all around the diamond, works even less.
krummy12 - September 28, 2011
Repeat after me
Unless we trade Zambrano
or Soriano
and get a rebate
we will have
more holes
than we can fill
in one off-season.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
So lets just fill none of them?
Dcr18 - September 28, 2011
Nope. We can fill two.
If we keep Rami, we can fill one.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
But if we don't keep Ramirez, that's one more hole to fill
So the math is the same: Fielder + Wilson + weak 3B or Fielder + Ramirez + weak SP or Wilson + Ramirez + weak 1B.
SouthernCub - September 28, 2011
I'd prefer Fielder and a TOR SP
Rami is now a short term 50 M stopgap.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Well, we aren't likely getting an "ace" this offseason
as Wilson is the only guy that fits that category, and he’s going to cost a lot more than Ramirez.
And I’d say calling one of the 5 best 3B in the league a stopgap is kind of strange. He’s a short-term option, but not a stopgap. He’d be one of our best players for those 2-3 years.
SouthernCub - September 28, 2011
Stopgap meaning
Won’t still be here in 2016 when we may be a legitimately solid team.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
So in 2016, we find a replacement
There’s no reason we can’t be solid until 2016. And there’s no reason we can’t have him be one of our best players until 2015, and then replace him then.
Arguing that “Ramirez won’t be here in 2016” is, in my opinion, a pointless argument. Whomever we’d actually get at SP won’t likely be here in 2016 either.
SouthernCub - September 28, 2011
I think 50 mil can be better spent elsewhere.
On this, we will disagree.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
And let's get real too on these ...
even though I like you’re train of though.
Trading Z and Fonz will not absolve the Cubs of even half of their contracts. Unlike the NHL where deals are money-for-money, the Cubs IMO will have to eat a minimum of 75% of each of those contacts.
So even if they deal both guys, they’re still on the hook for over $25M in ’12 and $13M in ’13 and ’14.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
Correct
I’d still be okay with dealing both of them and eating 75% of the salary. That’d still be ~$8 million in savings. Soriano’s departure doesn’t create a huge hole, and Zambrano’s departure removes a clubhouse problem.
SouthernCub - September 28, 2011
Oh definately agree there
Just wanted to point out that dealing those guys doesn’t mean the Cubs have all that contract money (or even close to it) to spend elsewhere.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
But adding 8 to the pie
could justify a third biggie FA.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Can I ask a question?
What has given you the impression that the Cubs will be players on the free agent market this offseason? And I’m asking seriously, by the way.
Damen Jackson - September 28, 2011
Ricketts likes to sell Old Style
Birds don’t have wallets.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
He also likes to sell
season tickets. That way, people watch games in April and May.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
I see
Not to put too fine a point on it, but that was the same argument made this time last season, that Ricketts must improve the on-field product because “he has to”. Turns out, he didn’t.
Actually I was wondering if you had something besides conjecture. Some statements, or something to that effect.
Damen Jackson - September 28, 2011
No info.
But I don’t think a 8-23 start will reload the bleachers.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Oh
tru dat.
Damen Jackson - September 28, 2011
I like Old Style
but I prefer the original recipe.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
That's a good question
I think Pujols will stay in St. Louis. That leaves Fielder and CJ Wilson as the big-name free agents available.
The Yankees may well get into the Fielder bidding (they could use a DH to replace Posada). All of the big spenders will be in the CJ Wilson hunt.
If we don’t land Fielder or Wilson, there’s not a big-name guy that Ramirez is preventing us from getting.
SouthernCub - September 28, 2011
Yes, yes it could
With the firing of Hendry, now is the time for the Cubs to take the next step and learn how to spend wisely. The next guy will have a chance to put his fingerprints all over the roster.
And it will take a couple years too (look at what Stan Bowman did to re-make the ’Hawks after the salary cap-ocalypse of the summer of 2010).
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
Agree which is why I'm not big on Pujols for 10 years.
rlpete - September 28, 2011
I'm only big on Pujuls for a long term deal
if it’s significantly FRONT loaded. Pay the guy $30M+ for 2, 3 or 4 years but as the contract gets to year 8, it had better be south of $10M.
The whole reason Soriano’s deal is so abysmal is years 7 & 8 is as much as if not more than years 1 & 2.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
Can't be front loaded.
MLBPA says so
timh815 - September 28, 2011
The money has to stay level or go up?
Really…REALLY ?! (SNL reference). Wow, OK, missed that.
Then the dumb-ass owners get what they deserve. Idiots.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
MLBPA is very strong
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Agreed
Owners shouldn’t bitch about things and cry poor when they agree to crap like that.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
Agreed, but apparently not economically wise...
Because frontloading is in the players’ benefit (due to the time value of money, and because they can then be more easily moved to a contender at the end of their deals).
SouthernCub - September 28, 2011
but it helps keep deals bigger
in Arbitration.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Sorry but no way Pujols gets 10 years
from any team. If he does – I hope they enjoy years 6-10
Hammer - September 28, 2011
Loud, sustained applause
Wonderful post, rlpete. Rec’d.
Not Bruce Froemming - September 28, 2011
My problem with Fielder
is not that I don’t trust his bat, it’s that I don’t trust his health. He’s got a ton of weight on that body and his knees are going to start feeling it once he turns 30. He looks like Mo Vaughn all over again. (Don’t forget, Mo Vaugn was a great hitter too.) He might be great the next two seasons, but I’m worried that by the time the Cubs are ready to win it all, he’s going to be making $25 million a year to sit on the DL.
Josh Timmers - September 28, 2011
Look, this is going to take more than 1 year
The MLB roster is seriously lacking in talent. Right now, the Cubs have 1 starter who isn’t a 4/5 on a good team (Garza), and 2 hitters who aren’t 7/8 on a good team (Castro, Ramirez). A team doesn’t come back from that kind of talent drought overnight.
ClarkFan - September 30, 2011
Do the Cubs
need to clean the (club)house more or their kitchens (the vendors) more? Not sure what’s worse, Big Z (more like Mount Z with the way it periodically erupts), Mike “sent to Cubbie re-education camp” Quade, and hordes of underperforming players or black slime in the ice machine and hordes of undercooked meat.
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
I like Ramirez's production.
However he is good as gone. He will want 3 years, 14-15M a year, and the way the Cubs are in a financial mess with Z and Soriano I just don’t see this getting done. This is truly my opinion. And to be honest the rotation will need more attention. Is Dempster staying? Does he want more money and security? The Cubs, if they consider themselves a playoff type team can not go into the season as Wells as a 4 and Coleman as a 5. And to count on Cashner to be in the rotation is foolish.
This team will have so many holes, goodness you can’t count them. LaHair and Colvin are essentially the same type of hitter. I mean you can go on with this roster. The new GM/Manager will have a challenge to make this team a contender.
Grockcubs - September 28, 2011
Contender?
I firmly agree that the new GM will have as much or more difficulty even making this team halfway relevant to anything in the next few years. One caveat….more money is spent to acquire players developed elsewhere may change that opinion.
krummy12 - September 28, 2011
A-Ram is gone
will miss his production but we’re rebuilding. end of story.
QuincyCub - September 28, 2011
What teams would be looking for more RAM?
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
IT departments?
daver - September 28, 2011
Every ream knows
You can simply download moar RAMs.
JOVE23 - September 28, 2011
team even
JOVE23 - September 28, 2011
I've downloaded reams of RAM in my time.
daver - September 28, 2011
The Yankees have the resources to pay for a real DH
Especially now that Posada’s contract is up. They don’t need to take a bargain deal on Soriano (who would be one of the worst hitters in their lineup).
SouthernCub - September 28, 2011
They won't pay for anything
Jesus Montero has done quite nicely in his cup of coffee as the team’s DH. They would be stupid to pay anything for another DH.
RynoRooter - September 28, 2011
Perhaps true as well
in any case, they certainly aren’t paying for Soriano. If they’re going to go for an external option at DH, they’re going to go straight to the top of the ladder. But as you said, they may very well go with Montero instead.
SouthernCub - September 28, 2011
I say give Quade another year.
Chalk up 2011 as a “learning” experience. However, revamping his coaching staff is a good idea.
ronsanto10 - September 28, 2011
proof positive for a de-rec button.
epsilon - September 28, 2011
we learned enough
he needs to go
cozmotaylor123 - September 28, 2011
wat
Dcr18 - September 28, 2011
Funny.
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
Aflac duck needed here
Craig in South Bend - September 28, 2011
.....
BrewCrew'sPrinceofDarkness - September 28, 2011
Thank you.
santoswoodenlegs - September 28, 2011
Excellent SWL.
daver - September 28, 2011
...
Vermont Cubs Fan - September 28, 2011
...
Subterfuge - September 28, 2011
Why just 1 more year?
Maybe he has a “learning” disability, so might take 2, 3, even 4 seasons to learn what others are expected to learn in 1 year. But hey, this is little league right? These games don’t really matter, right? It’s all just good fun for the kids, to instill some team spirit in them and give ’em some exercise.
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
Those tweets did make start my day with a chuckle
Madison Cub Fan - September 28, 2011
Cubs would be fools to let Ramirez go
Ramirez is clearly the top offensive 3B in the NL and absolutely the best available 3B this offseason, little debate about that.
Further, the Cubs have 2 guys (Castro and Ramirez) who are really legit 1-5 hitters, beyond that it is a collection of guys who should be hitting in the 7-8 slots. Things aren’t much brighter in the near term on the prospect front. Maybe Jackson could be a 1-5 type hitter, but, we’ll see.
So, if the Cubs let Ramirez go in the name of “rebuilding” I have a hard time seeing the Cubs being at all competitive in 2012, who knows from there.
Who, either in the Cubs system or on the FA horizon would folks propose as the starting 3B in 2013?
WGNstatic - September 28, 2011
so resign him to win 70 games instead of 65?
how many more games are you gonna win with Ramirez when you are THIRTY GAMES UNDER .500 with him the last two years??? This is gonna be a long and painful rebuilding process. There’s no reason for this franchise to give this 34 year old (who didn’t show up the first three months of the season) a forty million dollar contract. That’s crazy, I think most Cub fans are ready for the total tear down and rebuilding. I am.
MikeJW - September 28, 2011
Total tear down?
What does that accomplish?
Honestly, I think many Cub fans hope the team dumps everyone and hires a bunch of Beer League softball guys. It might give a long home run to cheer for every so often, but, at least folks would have to stress about winning!
A total tear down accomplishes very little.
Bad team – smaller attendence – less revenue – Bad outcome
Bad team – losing attitude for potential stars such as Castro – Bad outcome
Bad team – less attractive to free agents – Bad outcome
Hey, I am all for giving young guys a chance to play, but the Cubs have nobody to replace Ramirez for at least the next couple of years.
WGNstatic - September 28, 2011
Yep your right WGN
I think Ricketts didn’t buy this team to be a Pirates clone. He has to put money into this team or he will see more empty seats, no players wanting to come here, a star in Castro with no one else around. It could get ugly if Ricketts doesn’t pony up coin for some players.
Kids or no Kids, DJ, Colvin, Barney, Clevenger, Dollis and La Hair are not star type players, good role players but not everyday starters.
Grockcubs - September 28, 2011
Like I've said,
the only reason people want to get rid of ARam is for spite, I think.
I don’t get the thought processes here.
Not Bruce Froemming - September 28, 2011
Spite for what?
Craig in South Bend - September 28, 2011
The slow starter,
The he doesn’t hustle, on and on. That spite.
Grockcubs - September 28, 2011
I was just getting ready to post that
and then I saw your post. Exactly.
Not Bruce Froemming - September 28, 2011
I just worry about cost
If he could be brought back for cheap enough, I say do it, slow starter or not. I doubt we do much in 2012, but I’ll gladly take a slow start in 2013 if the rest of the team can perform well enough to allow a mid to late season surge by Rami to allow the Cubs to then go run and hide until the playoffs.
Craig in South Bend - September 28, 2011
Yeah, the only question on Ramirez should be allocation of resources
If keeping him prevents us from upgrading in areas of greater need (and I’m not making a judgment on the answer to that as we have lots of needs) then it makes sense to let him go to get what we need.
If the money is there and not preventing us for other needs, it would make no sense to let him go because we aren’t going to match his production at 3B internally or on the free agent market.
There is certainly opportunity cost associated with signing a new contract with Ramirez. But it may very well be worth it depending upon the price/duration of the contract and what else we could get (SP, OF, 1B).
SouthernCub - September 28, 2011
Well put
Not Bruce Froemming - September 28, 2011
Yep
Some Cubs fans hate the White Sox fans because deep down on the inside, they are like what they say White Sox fans are on the outside. Contrast the sendoff fans gave Ozzie Guillen vs. Lou Pinella. So, Cubs fans aren’t all the endless fountain of optimism, hope, and naivity as they are portrayed as. Some can be quite spiteful towards underperforming players and managers.
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
And
Bringing back the “heart” of the same bad team ALSO equals smaller attendance, less revenue, and a losing attitude.
So, it would appear the Cubs are hosed either way.
fsuapollo - September 28, 2011
Pretty much.
shoemile - September 28, 2011
Isn't Starlin
becoming the new heart of the Cubs? I understand he may not be the heart as in the core of the team, but he seems to be becoming the metaphorical heart.
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
For sure. He's already the face of the pocket schedules, too.
I should have been clearer… I meant heart of the line-up (i.e., 3-4-5 hitters: Byrd, Ramirez, Pena).
fsuapollo - September 28, 2011
Rebuild and play who?
A bunch of marginal prospects? What happens then in several years when these prospects are revealed as marginal prospects? More rebuilding?
rlpete - September 28, 2011
If you play
Flaherty and DJLM and they’re horrid, then they are. They may be okay, but they’re cheap. We will need a couple years to get our recent draftees anywhere near Wrigley.
Rami cuts into CJ Wilson/Prince/Pujols money.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Well at least you are talking Fielder.
Losing A-Ram for Fielder would be ok with me. Some have said no to Fielder because the Cubs aren’t ready to contend.
I don’t think Wilson is a reasonable option. He is going to get a lot more than he is worth. I’d be more interested in Fielder even if the Cubs need pitching. If the Marlins are moving Nolasco, I’d be interested. Maybe a change of scenery will help.
rlpete - September 28, 2011
We can get 2 legit FA.
If we get Rami, we can get only one other. And we’d lose two high draft picks.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Cubs won't lose their #1 pick as it is protected
unless the rules are changed. Same thing happened the year of the Soriano signing.
rlpete - September 28, 2011
If we keep Rami,
we lose the 2 picks Ramirez would bring in.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Last report I saw had Rami as a Type B thanks to last season.
rlpete - September 28, 2011
Yes
Rami is type B. Our only Type A is Dempster, and he’ll likely stay.
Josh Timmers - September 28, 2011
Well
You’re putting a lot of stock on guys that are light years away from Wrigley. Please recall the draft class of 2002 for what could happen when you rely on guys that are years away.
krummy12 - September 28, 2011
Which is why
TR needs to do that year after decade until it pays dividends. Not one and done.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
That's the problem with rebuilding
When rebuilding one often does it b/c they see potential in the players. I don’t see who they are. Don’t get me wrong I don’t want a bloated pay roll of guys that are average at best.
Madison Cub Fan - September 28, 2011
But people here are talking rebuilding with marginal prospects
and completely untested low A and rookie ball players. The Cubs don’t have a pipeline of Upton, Longoria and Price.
rlpete - September 28, 2011
We have a boatload of MI.
Play them. See if they’re any good. Sign two big FA and a minor one or two.
That’s all, unless we get a Soriano/Zambrano rebate.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
And that is fine for 2012.
Some people are proposing not signing anyone in the name of rebuilding.
rlpete - September 28, 2011
That is foolish.
I’m seeing “Don’t sign Rami”, which I defend. I’m not seeing, “Don’t sign anyone”.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
There have been numerous
don’t sign Fielder because the Cubs aren’t ready to contend.
rlpete - September 28, 2011
I've been too scarce recently, I guess
I haven’t seen"Flag the year entirely" posts.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
The closest I have seen to this is
‘by the time the Cubs can contend, Fielder’s contract would be a problem’. (For the record, I don’t agree with this sentiment.)
There’s also bristling about what Fielder would cost (i.e., “please no more than 6 years or $25M/per”).
I really haven’t seen anyone post that we flat out should not sign Fielder under any condition because we aren’t ready to contend.
fsuapollo - September 28, 2011
Those that are paying attention
Won’t need several years. Some of these kids have already shown they don’t have major league skill sets. LeMahieu is one of them.
krummy12 - September 28, 2011
You do realize
What a total tear down is ahead don’t you? We’re talking futility after futility that will make 2011 seem like a division championship. Unless of course the teardown includes spending money to acquire other organizations’ players…..
krummy12 - September 28, 2011
Right.
I don’t often agree with you. But a “total teardown” means a year like the Astros had this year.
How many tickets do you think the Cubs would sell to see that team?
Al Yellon - September 28, 2011
That would be unacceptable
in this size a market.
Like I said the other night, do you want to see a Cubs everyday lineup in 2012 like the one that played Monday? Some people around here, more than a few, do.
Not Bruce Froemming - September 28, 2011
Please no!
I do not want to watch a season in which the only on field entertainment could be watching Campana chase 100 steals while hitting .245 and only getting on base at a clip of .305.
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
Absolutely incorrect.
I do not see one single poster advocating for the Cubs to head to 2012 ST with Monday’s line-up as the assumed starting line-up. Not. One.
fsuapollo - September 28, 2011
You're not going to get anywhere with him...
he’s made up his mind about what everyone else here really wants. There is nothing you can say that would change it.
santoswoodenlegs - September 28, 2011
Read my post again
A lineup “like the one that played Monday.”
Not Bruce Froemming - September 28, 2011
Well fine... you're 'off the hook' on your qualifier.
So then the question becomes, how many differences between “Monday’s” and Quade’s ‘all vet special’ are needed to strike a balance between this fictitious “being competitive” and the much needed changes? Is one less “vet” ok? Is two? If it’s three, are we giving up on the season, which “you can’t do in this market” (and of course ignores that the Cubs should, more or less, be “giving up on 2012” since there are far too many holes in the dam to be competitive)?
It seems to me you accumulate the momentum from / desire for several players to move on (Z & Soriano for sure and then mixed feelings on Pena, Ramirez, & Byrd and even Dempster, to a lesser extent) to equate that “lots of BCBers” want to go all Astros on 2012.
While there are some (misguided MikeJW, below), that is an extreme minority opinion.
Most of us want to see some upheaval with these players (Me: Z must go, don’t sign Pena, deal Byrd if no $ goes with, resign ARam to two year deal at 12M per max, Sori goes if you can get 5-6M annual relief, keep Dempster) while replacing them with a MIX of internal options and external acquisitions.
fsuapollo - September 28, 2011
The last two years have been horrible with the high payroll
I’d rather go Astros and cut payroll than keep spending 125 million to lose 90 games. The whole thing needs to be torn down and rebuilt, just to spend some money with the sole purpose of being mediocre (2010 and 2011 cubs) is crazy. So attendance falls, lower the ticket prices and announce the direction you are going instead of trying to con people into thinking that this team is close when it’s not.
MikeJW - September 28, 2011
Never going to happen
And it never, ever should.
Not Bruce Froemming - September 28, 2011
This is more fiction.
Even a “total tear down” doesn’t mean you literally roll out a minor league line-up.
You can still accomplish a “total tear down” (not resigning expensive players who led you to nowhere and playing some ‘kids’) and still field a competitive team. You sign some cost efficient veterans (e.g., the Casey Kotchmans of the world) to compete with some of your “kids” and let the best player play instead of the most expensive player.
A “total tear down” in Chicago would still have an $85M+ (at least) payroll. And that kind of squad would NOT be appreciably less “competitive” than the ’11 Cubs were.
fsuapollo - September 28, 2011
Disagreement
I think part of why you don’t agree with me much is because I’ve been extremely negative towards this group for just about two years now. I don’t think it takes a sage to plainly see this version was so similar to the version from a year ago that it had absolutely no chance of success. You on the other hand are much more optimistic…even when even you had to see the writing on the wall. I used to be like that too…but gave that up years ago.
Reality shows this organization is quite possibly in the midst of some of its darkest days. There are very few glimmers of hope right now surrounding this organization that is seemingly built on endless hope. To be honest, it is very difficult to type that and recognize just how much work needs to be done to make this franchise relevant in the near term.
krummy12 - September 28, 2011
How well does
a total teardown rebound a team vs. your garden variety “rebuilding”? Is it faster or is it just a knee-jerk reaction that doesn’t really bring any added benefits vs. standard rebuilding?
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
A total tear-down would be great if...
we a had decent farm system that is producing MLB talent other than “role players”.
Can’t build a winning team on marginal “role players”.
CubFanSince1970 - September 28, 2011
If they are already the Iowa Cubs,
would tearing them down make them the Daytona Cubs?
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
i have a hard time seeing the Cubs conteding in 2012
even if he stays.
epsilon - September 28, 2011
They most likely won't be
but that doesn’t mean you give up and play marginal prospects and hope that players that have just been drafted are as good as advertised.
rlpete - September 28, 2011
You draft like that
ten years in a row. And enjoy four division wins in 5 years.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
So the Cubs should tank until 2022?
rlpete - September 28, 2011
No more than the Sawks.
Every stinking year for the next 60 years, the Cubs should be Top ten in spending bonus money. Do it wisely. After a decade or three, people will hate us for a different reason.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Agree 100%
and as I commented above, in the meantime try and field a competitive team. They are not mutually exclusive as some people seem to think.
rlpete - September 28, 2011
Truth-rec
Say Ramrod - September 28, 2011
I'm guessing our new GM/Manager
will be able to sign a couple minor FA that will produce fairly well… Bill Mueller/Terry Pendleton types. We need a TOR pitcher and a thumper.
Minus salary relief on Z and Sori, I don’t see 3 big FA signings. So do you hate pitching or 1B men?
timh815 - September 28, 2011
I don't hate either
I agree with you. They will need some lower level FA types next year. I don’t even expect 2 big signings. I’d be happy with one.
rlpete - September 28, 2011
If the Cubs could bring in "minor FA's" that
are capable of winning MVP Awards, batting titles, and World Championships, then I’m all for it!
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
Cubs, White Sox, and Mets
should all be as strong as the Yankees & Red Sox (minus this September) with the money they toss around. But clearly the first 3 need to look at what the last 2 are doing because money is only half the equation with trying to buy postseason access.
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
Sori racking up RBI's
don’t know exactly how…his avg. hasn’t budged but he does come up with the big hits. can see him as part of 2012 team and maybe being traded at deadline. he’d be a great DH with the right AL team.
I’d love to see someone press John McDonough on why they added so many $$ and years to his deal. Cardinals deal with OF Holliday will be similarly bad at end, already they have a young player—Alan Craig—who is more productive.
QuincyCub - September 28, 2011
Understand the answer to this question was:
They wanted to prop up the club for sale and make a big FA splash. They splashed alright…
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
Soriano will likely be here in 2012.
The 88 RBIs (despite the fact that they are his highest total as a Cub) are a mirage, he’s having his second worst season as a Cub, putting up a whopping 1.1 WAR.
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
He's not a "great DH"
He’s an average hitter who is in his decline phase. DH may be the only position he’s suited to play, but that doesn’t make him a great DH.
Even if he bounces back to 2010 form (which is probably optimistic), that would just make him an okay DH.
SouthernCub - September 28, 2011
I think comparing Alan Craig to Matt Holliday
is premature. Alan Craig’s sample size is weigh to small. His contract is bad but why do we care….let them make their own mess
TheRiot Police - September 28, 2011
Campana put on a show last night.
Stole second on a pitchout, then tagged and took third on a medium fly to left field.
We sat in front of Garza’s family. They say he’s happy to be a Cub. Repeated his mantra: “it is what it is.”
His nephew, 5 weeks old, slept through most of the game.
Clark Addison - September 28, 2011
Now that must have been interesting
Madison Cub Fan - September 28, 2011
Campana is a game-changer
hope he gets playing time next year esp. in early season when so difficult scoring runs at Wrigley. Also needs to work on his hitting/bunting/walking in off-season. this kid could steal 100 bases (and only get thrown out 10-15 times) if he plays regularly.
QuincyCub - September 28, 2011
Not sure if he's got the ability to consistently get on base enough to make that happen.
He sure is fast though. But so was Ced Landrum.
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
Right.
Campana needs to develop on-base skills. If he can do that he’d be a useful player.
If not, he’s a 25th man at best.
Al Yellon - September 28, 2011
Not a good enough hitter to be a game changer
He’s very fast. But I doubt he gets on base enough to be an impact player.
Also note that speed can wear down. Between the OBP concerns and the likelihood that his speed wears down over a season, I doubt he’d come close to 100 SB.
SouthernCub - September 28, 2011
This is something that has been bugging me for a while but...
am I the only one that is sick and tired of us picking up players that have to be in a platoon?
Player A sucks against lefties so we get another so-so player who is good against lefties, but sucks against righties and we play musical chairs all season…
I’d like to see a GM who drafts, recruits and signs players who play the game no matter which side of the mound the pitcher is coming from…
It seems like half the players we have on the bench are only there to platoon…
Endrick - September 28, 2011
agreed
Dcr18 - September 28, 2011
That's what happens
when you’re cheap on developing your own. At the cost of 8 million on the big club per year, TR is changing that through the draft.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
RAM contract????
I keep hearing different reports about what the contract is. I understand, that the cubs have the option for Ramirez for $16 MIl, or a $2Mil Buyout….if that’s the case, just sign him for the one year…why go longer??? If he truly wants to leave, then trade him @ deadline.
vin23 - September 28, 2011
Option to offer 1 year
Rami can decline and become a FA.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Bad Contract Again Then
Why did the cubs hand out these player approval options, no trade clauses….and any other perk that hurts the team!
vin23 - September 28, 2011
JH liked giving player friendly deals.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Aramis has the same number of hits as the great Pujols with half the talent around him
and yet people want to get rid of him!? Insane! Morans!
Itchy - September 28, 2011
KEEP ARAMIS!!
Itchy - September 28, 2011
Keep A-Ram
There’s no other option unless the Marlins want him so bad they can find the Cubs a 3B. I’ve said this before. Want Another black hole to fill? FYI, I think the work is spreading on LaHair. No fastballs.
Elsewhere, there was a massive walk-up of Cubs fans last night. 39K? Amazing. I was late due to my work schedule, and in the first inning all streets were jammed leading to Petco, Ticket lines were swamped. Had to be a 15K walk up.
San Diego Smooth Jazz Man - September 28, 2011
By the end of the game
Less than 5000 were still in the stands. Easiest trip home I’ve had after a Pads game.
Clark Addison - September 28, 2011
No on Ramirez
I would prefer to look for TOR pitching, but if we can’t get Wilson – what about this…
Can Jose Reyes play 3B? Spend $35-$38 million on Fielder and Reyes. Play Reyes at 3B.
Play Campana in CF until Jackson comes up. I’d love to see Castro/Reyes/Fielder coming up in the first inning every day! The corner OF positions are the next mess that would need to be fixed. And as much as I love them both in the bullpen, I think one of either Shark or Marshall are going to need to be tried in the rotation if Cashner can’t start
John916 - September 28, 2011
I really think we need another starter.
timh815 - September 28, 2011
We need at least two!
Itchy - September 28, 2011
I'd agree
Who?
John916 - September 28, 2011
No idea
timh815 - September 28, 2011
Trade
They might have to go the same way they got Garza.
If the Cubs could land Reyes & Fielder – I think at that point you could consider them potential contenders if they had another Garza-level pitcher. So you might make another trade like that.
John916 - September 28, 2011
They really don't have the prospects to make that happen.
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
Depends
On who you’re willing to give up.
I think McNutt and Szcur could get you a Garza-type.
I’m not saying I’m advocating that – mind you. Just that it would be possible.
John916 - September 28, 2011
I'd do it for the right pitcher
I wouldn’t hesitate one bit if someone asked for a Szczur/McNutt centered package for a younger starter. I just don’t know of any available starters that really pique my interest.
McNutt has enough questions about command/control/straight fastball/3rd pitch/endurance to where I’d deal him. Szczur is a guy I really like, but with BJax in CF for what could be the next 3-5 years at least, not to mention a minor league system jam-packed with potential CFers, he might be more valuable to us as a trade chip.
RynoRooter - September 28, 2011
Who's an available free agent?
Itchy - September 28, 2011
Well
The best two are CJ Wilson and CC Sab if he opts out.
After that no-one I’d get too excited about.
Here’s a list http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/2012-mlb-free-agents.html
John916 - September 28, 2011
Sabathia is out of the question
He’s only going to opt out for a better deal than the remaining 4 years $92 million. So to expect anything less than $25 million per year to get Sabathia would be unrealistic.
Basically, I think we’re in the second-tier market for SP unless we get one via trade again.
SouthernCub - September 28, 2011
Pretty weak list.
I could see the Cubs ending up with Garland or Duke and Jackson.
Also, does anyone know what the deal is with Chien Mien Wang? Is he hurt again? Because if healthy, he could do well at Wrigley.
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
Jackson
Is by far the best of those first three you mention.
11.1 WAR over the last 3 years combined
John916 - September 28, 2011
He just came back from injury
at the end of July, after missing most of 2009, all of 2010, and most of 2011. He’s not missed a start that I know of since coming back.
At a very low price, he’d be an interesting option in a competition for the 5th starter spot.
SouthernCub - September 28, 2011
Possibly Yu Darvish as well
He’s the guy I want the Cubs to dish out the dough for. They would easily get the $55+ million posting fee back through Japanese marketing deals. I would bet he could be signed for between $12-15 million a year. I would rather take the chance on the 25 year old Japanese ace, than the 31 year old, converted reliever C.J. Wilson.
RynoRooter - September 28, 2011
They're more likely to sign the lefty
Iwakama? No posting fee, less dollars, could still be a #3 or 4 starter.
cubzfan - September 28, 2011
Stop it, none of the Jap pitchers has ever been worth the money.
Itchy - September 28, 2011
wow.
just because you capitalize it, doesn’t make it not a racial slur.
epsilon - September 28, 2011
oops!
Itchy - September 28, 2011
And your avatar pic is also insensitive.
santoswoodenlegs - September 28, 2011
It's OK I'm a Polack
Itchy - September 28, 2011
Nice job of compounding the situation
Although I get what you’re trying to say, I think.
Not Bruce Froemming - September 28, 2011
For me its an insult to the greatest logo and jersey in all of sports
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
It's meant in honor of their greatness in 2010!
I’m a Hawk fan and it’s not an insult
Itchy - September 28, 2011
Homer is not an honour to anyone
but that’s just me.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
To each his own
Itchy - September 28, 2011
Sure.
But “Jap” is not permitted here. Don’t do it again. Thanks.
Al Yellon - September 28, 2011
Just watch...
Next season there will be some baseball player who has that as his last name.
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
Yeah, it's Japanese or JP
latter usually gets used with talking about regions (e.g. NA, EU, JP).
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
We need a lot of things
2 starters (assuming Zambrano is gone), a 1B, a 3B (if Ramirez leaves), a RF, potentially a LF (if Soriano is gone), and a better bullpen.
Some of those may be available in house. Hopefully Jackson can fill one of the OF spots solidly. Maybe we get some help in the bullpen from our AA/AAA and more experience. Cashner might be able to fill one of the starting spots, but it’s not a certainty.
We’ll need to fill 3B, one SP, and 1B (at least) with a free agent.
SouthernCub - September 28, 2011
I don't think Reyes can handle the hot corner, second base yes.
In that scenario you could move Barney to SS and Castro to 3rd.
tripdenten - September 28, 2011
That's fine
Yeah – that would work.
John916 - September 28, 2011
That's likely a big step back offensively from Ramirez
Reyes had a fantastic year this year, but it’s way above his norm and he’s even more injury-prone than Ramirez.
SouthernCub - September 28, 2011
Well, not necessarily
Factor in Ramirez is older, and should start experiencing drop off.
Also he’s a lousy fielder, slow, and loafs. So overall – I think what we lose a little offensively – we pick up other places.
Here’s Reyes WAR lately
2011 – 6.2
2010 – 2.8
2009 – 0.8 (injured)
2008 – 6.4
2007 – 5.8
I don’t think its that big a dropoff
John916 - September 28, 2011
WAR are adjusted based on position
So if you move Reyes (or Castro) to 3B, his offensive WAR goes down.
You’d need to compare Reyes’s non-adjusted stats to Ramirez’s non-adjusted stats. That’s where the difference becomes more evident.
SouthernCub - September 28, 2011
Ahhh
Thanks SC. I didn’t take that into account. I still think I’d be happy with Reyes instead of Ramirez overall, but I now see more clearly the dropoff you refer to.
John916 - September 28, 2011
No to Reyes....to Fragile.
TheRiot Police - September 28, 2011
Here's a weird concept...
I’m okay with Z coming back next year. its 19 million dollars. its for one year. he’s a quality pitcher. after the year, dont resign him. or at the trade deadline trade him. but for throwing away 19 million dollars and the team needing a starting pitcher, bring him back. outbursts and flame ups and all…
epsilon - September 28, 2011
No way
Yes, he is a quality pitcher – but the Cubs, probably not contenders in 2012, need a MAJOR shift in the way they do business and the way the team is constructed. Part of that includes removing inept management (Quade, DeJesus, Riggins), as well as unprofessional embarassments like Zambrano. Its time this team not only put out a winning ballclub that can hustle and play fundementally sound baseball, but also one that has some class. I don’t think the two are mutually exclusive.
John916 - September 28, 2011
okay. fair.
but paying someone 19 million to go away is also asinine. especially when that person fills a role. 2012 isnt going to be good. might as well not have to go out and get some average pitcher when you can pay z to do his job instead of paying him to do his job on someone elses pitching staff…once his contract is up. then dont resign him.
epsilon - September 28, 2011
Honestly
I don’t know if they could afford to deal with him any longer. I hate eating that much salary as well – especially as I’d like to do the same with Soriano.
What about paying the salary, but trading him for a top ten prospect from someone’s organization? That would show some benefit, and help improving the minors as well.
Hell – the Marlins gave up 2 top ten prospects for Guillen! I would think Z – if you ate the salary could give us one – no?
John916 - September 28, 2011
I think soriano and Zambrano are different reasons to unload.
Soriano just cant sustain his offense like he used to. Zambrano can still pitch, and be productive. i dont know the whole issue behind Z exploding in Atlanta, i’m tired of his antics, but if he fills a hole(that he created) and doesnt cost us his 19million + new pitchers salary, then okay, deal with it for one more year. one more year, not 4 or five, but one more year. and who knows maybe z see’s changes all around the organization and isnt the basket case he’s been(stretch i know).
epsilon - September 28, 2011
Different reasons
but still reasons to get rid of them.
I’d much prefer getting a top ten prospect and eating his salary than eating it and just releasing him, or keeping him on the team.
I agree he has a lot more value, and is still a better player than Soriano is. I just think we could pry a good prospect away that might be ready in 2013.
I wouldn’t mind seeing a rotation next year of Garza, EJackson, Dempster, Wells, Cashner.
John916 - September 28, 2011
who is going to give us a top ten prospect?
Ricketts already shot himself in the foot saying ’he’s not coming back’, plus no one really wanted him at the trade deadline…i dont see us getting very much back for z.
epsilon - September 28, 2011
Soriano will be back.
Not only is too much money involved to trade him, but if Ramirez goes there is a huge power/rbi outage. Pena hit under the Mendoza line with runners in scoring position this season. He’s no cleanup hitter.
Soriano drove in nearly 90 runs hitting 6th.
Clark Addison - September 28, 2011
Soriano
Hit very well with RISP. I think that actually means if he’s at all tradeable, this might be one of the last chances to do it.
John916 - September 28, 2011
Florida?
They gave up two top ten for Guillen. Guillen likes Z.
I would take a top 15 for him. I don’t think that’s unreasonable.
John916 - September 28, 2011
One's the albatross, one's the raging bull
and alotta crap between the two of them, but crap of different types.
ddoubleheader - September 28, 2011
okay. fair.
but paying someone 19 million to go away is also asinine. especially when that person fills a role. 2012 isnt going to be good. might as well not have to go out and get some average pitcher when you can pay z to do his job instead of paying him to do his job on someone elses pitching staff…once his contract is up. then dont resign him.
epsilon - September 28, 2011
Only if the total cost for the position goes way up
Paying 90% of Fonz’s deal then ponying up another $10M won’t be wise.
HOWEVER, if it means they can back-fill with a youngster from the farm, I’m OK with it.
They’re going to have to rebuild no matter what happens. This because Ricketts isn’t all of a sudden going to allow the Cubs to have a $180M payroll. Something has to give.
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
Would you pay Jeromy Burnitz $18 million a year?
Because the 2005 version of Burnitz is essentially what the Cubs got from Soriano this year. Thanks again, Jim. If any team in need of a DH wants Sori for a fraction of what the Cubs are paying, they should seriously consider the offer.
Burnitz – http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=111742
Soriano – http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=150093
BTW, Burnitz is sporting one helluva game face in his photo!
Mike Vails Evil Twin - September 28, 2011
Burntiz never was a member of the 40/40 club
which Soriano’s agent used to bamboozle Hendry.
But that game face is probably worth a half mil.
JFCubFan - September 28, 2011
Bamboozle is right!
Nothing like rewarding someone for what he did for another team.
Mike Vails Evil Twin - September 28, 2011
Soriano was on his way to 30/30 before the hamstring injury in 2007.
That and the knee injury at the start of 2009 have basically ruined his legs and taken his speed away.
This could NOT have been predicted at the time of the signing. You can’t blame Hendry for that.
Al Yellon - September 28, 2011
How much speed did Jim expect him to have in his mid 30s?
shoemile - September 28, 2011
Dang I forgot Burnitz had a pretty good year.
Doggie Stalker - September 28, 2011
And he was a pretty good right fielder, too.
Mike Vails Evil Twin - September 28, 2011
Ummm...good arm, no range! I wouldn't say pretty good
Look the sori stuff is overplayed. cubs gave him a ridiculous contract….but the vendetta that fans and media have against this guy are so worn out, and overdone. he did very well the first couple years of the contract…hurt his leg and has dropped off since. At least the guy will carry a team for a week or two.
vin23 - September 28, 2011
i doubt anyone has a vendetta against Soriano
but he can carry a team for a week or two out of 30? yeah thats awesome.
epsilon - September 28, 2011
Carrying a Team for a week is important
Sori w/ RISP- .285 / .331onb….that’s 3rd on the team.
(obvious disclaimer…I’m not saying he’s worth his contract). He can help a team…should’ve been betting 4th behind ramirez…for a bit to see….especially against lefties.
vin23 - September 28, 2011
At least he's not chicken shit scared of the OF wall
blackhawk24 - September 28, 2011
I would sign Ramirez however
1. Byrd 35 RBI’s
2. Marmol throwing balls all over the yard, 10 blown saves
3. Soriano, enough said
4. The melt down of Z
5. Wells and Coleman finish the season as our 4/5 starters
6. Barney hitting below .258 since June 1.
7. Colvin, LaHair the same player
8. Demspter is our 2 starter.
9. Only BJax on the horizon to provide some help offensively.
To many ifs, to many holes.
Grockcubs - September 28, 2011
If Lahair or Colvin are on the opening day roster
we’ll know then that this team is going nowhere fast!!
Itchy - September 28, 2011
Ya, maybe he could hit .180 w/ risp like Pena, right??
LaHair and colvin are not the same player at all.
I hope all cub fans who follow the team knew that Barney is not a quality starting 2nd basemen. He is the 8th hitter on a team at best…but really should be your swing back up.
Back to Pena..here is why K’s matter and hitting with RISP matter. He came up on Monday with man on 2nd …no out. Well, as a $10 Million hitter. he should try to pull the ball on the ground or in the air to either get a hit or worst case get the guy over to 3rd….now what did he do??? You guessed it STRUCK OUT with a terrible swing. That is why K’s matter.
vin23 - September 28, 2011
I'm not talking about Pena, but agree he's not the answer at 1st base
but neither are Lahair or Colvin and neither better be counted upon come Opening Day!
Itchy - September 28, 2011
Talent available
The idea of stuffing next season, or even more beyond that, down the shoot doesn’t match-up with what I want to see.
I see the point, though, where the team needs too much talent replenishment to find all of it within one off-season. The availability issue gets beyond level of investment or how much has to be paid for talent. It forces plans to roll at the pace of availability otherwise they get into the band-aid thing.
So, asap has its context. Asap they should sign the best pitching talent available with an eye toward 1-2 in the rotation, not 4-5. Look hard for more Garza-type deals and pay whatever for the good pitchers. Nothing new, but consider the likely flushing of Zambrano as highlighter for an area of need.
Also, asap they should bring-in, from wherever they are, position players who can field their position and hit major league RHPs. Nothing new here either. Consider the distinct possibility of the very few who can as mere highligher.
In the meantime, I wouldn’t rule-out the possibility of Castro developing into a power hitter. Also, Casey Coleman has had his opportunity of a lifetime this season. He might get more consistent and be a viable 4-5 starter. He seems durable.
AboutTheCubs - September 28, 2011
Correction
About hitting RHPs…“Consider the distinct possibility of losing one of the very few players who can as mere highlighter.”
AboutTheCubs - September 28, 2011
I just want to say a simple thank you to Matt Garza.
I wasn’t in favor of the trade for him — not because I didn’t think he was good but because I didn’t think he would be good enough in light of what the Cubs gave up. He exceeded my expectations pretty substantially this season, and I’m glad he’s on the team.
daver - September 28, 2011
Agreed
I thought the same thing and am happy to be wrong on this.
John916 - September 28, 2011
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