And, for better or worse, the author’s conclusion makes sense — though we can certainly hope for some exciting (or at least interesting) baseball before our window opens.
Junior Lake: Great-looking player but poor plate discipline keeps my enthusiasm in check.
Josh Vitters: I haven’t given up on him but many have. Hope he figures things out defensively because a move to first base or left field would seem to lower his value even further. This upcoming season looms large.
Ronald Torreyes: Many of us are hoping he’s our Dustin Pedroia, but his small size and minimal power keep me from getting my hopes too high. Looking forward to following his progress, though.
Dave Sappelt: Decent fourth outfielder.
Chris Carpenter & Rafael Dolis: I hope/expect both to be decent-to-good MLB relievers.
The Cubs have as much talent as about anyone at low-A and below with a ton of upsid, so a lot of those guys will be shooting up rankings the next couple years.
Below is a comment I made several weeks ago on elgato’s “A theory on TheoJed’s current thinking” post.
It’s like Dr. Fung-enstein hooked my comment up to the lightening rods and then threw the switch. “It’s alive! It’s alive!” :-)
Thanks for putting in a picture what I was trying to say in words.
What you need to do is create one of them horizontal bar charts.
Make a list of all the Cubs key players – start with the 40 man roster and add in any good young’uns that don’t have to be there yet. Then across the top, list the years through at least 2017, maybe longer.
Then extend a horizontal bar for each player and color code it to what you think their productivity/performance will be. i.e. maybe it’s various shades of cost-controlled green in their formative years, changing over to various shades of Cubbie-blue as they hit their peak performance years (roughly speaking, late 20s, early 30s), and then shift over to various shades of contract-burdening red in their later years.
Add any FAs you’ve got your eyes on, and since all this is behind closed doors and Bud can’t see, go ahead and add the Matt Cains, Cole Hamels and Joey Vottos of the world. And just for laughs, add Adam Lind and Brian Roberts too.
Now you’ve got your personnel roadmap for the next decade or so. Extend a black border around a 2-3 year range. Start with 2012-14 and see what the colors look like for that range. Ideally, I’d think you’d want a good mix of blues and greens (heavy on the blues) and maybe a few reds here and there. If you don’t like what you see, move the range over and look at 2013-2015.
Keep moving the range until you come up with the color combo that best matches your ideal team makeup and voila! There’s your window of opportunity for winning it all. Figure out how who you have to swap, sign, extend to get there and then stay there.
Why yes, I have been watching a lot of "The Price is Right" over the holidays. Why do you ask? ;-)
Lou Brown: “My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team…”
by ballhawk on Jan 2, 2012 10:10 AM CST reply actions
Soriano's contract is no longer a roadblock to spending money - I think they (TomTheoJed) all agree it's a stunk cost
They’ll let Sori start this year in the hopes of building some value (plus he’s not really blocking anyone – yet). But I’d be surprised if he’s on the roster in 2013, and floored if he’s starting.
As for Theo spending money… this offseason, I think he was prepared to make value buys (and did) and would have considered market buys in the right situation. I suppose I shouldn’t use past tense because the Cubans are still out there. I’d put Cespedes as a value buy, and Soler a market buy.
Next offseason, I think he’ll be prepared to make market buys in SP and will consider overmarket buys in the right situation (Cain, Hamels). After that, most of the pieces will be place and then he can fine tune here and there with a strategic buy at whatever price level is needed.
3B is still the big mystery to me though. I think how they fill that hole will be a key litmus test for Theo & Jed.
Most of the Cubs big roadblocks roll off after this season. For ’13, they only have $33.5M committed to Soriano, Marmol, and DeJesus (and the half million buyout for Maholm if the decline his option).
Now that doesn’t include Garza (if he’s kept / extended) or Soto (last year of arbitration… I’m in favor of dealing him) who could add a reasonable chunk. But even if Garza is 15 and Soto 6 and let’s say they pick up Maholm’s option ($6.5M), that’s still only $60.5M.
There would still be plenty of roster space left (19), but most of those could / would be filled by:
Arbitration 3 guy: Sonnastine
Arbitration 2 guys: Wells, Volstad, Stewart, DeWitt, Corpas
Arbitration 1 guys: Shark, Castro, Russell
Pre-arbitration guys: TWood and Barney most notably… but plenty of others
Obviously not all those guys will be around… but for the sake of the example, let’s say they are. That’s 11 of those 19 spots, not including other pre-arb guys… let’s say they fill 4 of those spots with such guys (Carpenter, Dolis, back-up catcher, Gaub, LaHair, Sappelt, etc.) and that total couldn’t possible be more than $20M (probably less).
That leaves 5 other guys to acquire (FA or trade) and you’ve got at least $20M to just get to $100M. If they set a $120M payroll, which seems reasonable, then you’ve got $40M to spend. And, keep in mind that several of those guys probably won’t be around and could be replaced either cheaper or with a pricier replacement (maybe you trade Soto and go with Castillo, try and find a ’12 trade deadline deal for Marmol, Garza could be easily gone, decline Maholm, let one of Wells or Volstad walk, get rid of DeWitt… obviously not all those will happen either, but they would pare a big chunk off the payroll).
One last note… if indeed the Cubs sign one or more of the Cubans, that would impact the totals.
I went to his site and paged through everything he had posted. His oldest post in the “Window” series is only a week ago. My original comment was posted over three weeks ago. The similarities are rather striking. About the only thing he didn’t do was add a black border. Oh, and list Adam Lind and Brian Roberts.
Daver, consider yourself retained. Not looking for a monetary award, just credit where credit’s due.
Release the hounds! Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war! If only SOPA and PIPA had been passed! Jessica, you were right! A pox on Wikipedia and Google’s houses!
isn’t on those lists because he does not have prospect eligibility. But he does have options remaining… so if he is not in the Cubs’ rotation, he probably goes to Iowa to wait for the first injury or deal. But I would think one of our “six starters” will be moved or hurt by the time we leave Mesa, so I’d expect him to be in the rotation.
Not sure if these were your notes or from Sickels, but neither Kurcz or Zych are likely to be SP candidates. They are both better fits in the pen. And I was under the impression that Zych would be a fast mover after being a 4th round pick as a college closer. If he’s spending 4 years in the minors, it probably isn’t happening for him.
At first glance, that looks like a pizza menu in Wrigleyville.
RiskyBusiness - January 25, 2012
Dude, we're not getting pineapple.
daver - January 25, 2012
Glad someone else agrees with me.
Pineapple on pizza = yuck.
Al Yellon - January 25, 2012
even after delivery the pineapples are a million degrees
I love anchovies but put them on a pizza and its disgusting
Hammer - January 25, 2012
Where I live you have to argue like crazy not to get corn on your pizza.
CubFanInChina - January 25, 2012
Only in China? lol
Maybe Iowa also, corn and butter…
bmasson11 - January 25, 2012
So a slice of of cheese with extra Rizzo on it is out of the question?
unretrofied93 - January 25, 2012
Make that a Double
RiskyBusiness - January 25, 2012
Seriously, great chart.
And, for better or worse, the author’s conclusion makes sense — though we can certainly hope for some exciting (or at least interesting) baseball before our window opens.
daver - January 25, 2012
One question for you guys
How do you think some of these C-level prospects will turn out? Is it a little too early to tell?
David Fung - January 25, 2012
It's probably too early on many of them.
A few random thoughts from yours truly:
Junior Lake: Great-looking player but poor plate discipline keeps my enthusiasm in check.
Josh Vitters: I haven’t given up on him but many have. Hope he figures things out defensively because a move to first base or left field would seem to lower his value even further. This upcoming season looms large.
Ronald Torreyes: Many of us are hoping he’s our Dustin Pedroia, but his small size and minimal power keep me from getting my hopes too high. Looking forward to following his progress, though.
Dave Sappelt: Decent fourth outfielder.
Chris Carpenter & Rafael Dolis: I hope/expect both to be decent-to-good MLB relievers.
daver - January 25, 2012
Depends who your talking about.
The Cubs have as much talent as about anyone at low-A and below with a ton of upsid, so a lot of those guys will be shooting up rankings the next couple years.
Dcr18 - January 25, 2012
wow - this is kinda freaky...
Below is a comment I made several weeks ago on elgato’s “A theory on TheoJed’s current thinking” post.
It’s like Dr. Fung-enstein hooked my comment up to the lightening rods and then threw the switch. “It’s alive! It’s alive!” :-)
Thanks for putting in a picture what I was trying to say in words.
ballhawk - January 25, 2012
When do you think Theo will start spending money?
I would imagine around the same before of after Soriano’s off the books?
David Fung - January 25, 2012
With the pitching crop next year, I think that is when he will start.
bdlugz - January 25, 2012
I think Cain isn't going to make it to FA.
ubercubsfan - January 25, 2012
Ehh, I'm starting to think he will unless he takes a VERY team friendly deal ala Weaver.
bdlugz - January 25, 2012
Soriano's contract is no longer a roadblock to spending money - I think they (TomTheoJed) all agree it's a stunk cost
They’ll let Sori start this year in the hopes of building some value (plus he’s not really blocking anyone – yet). But I’d be surprised if he’s on the roster in 2013, and floored if he’s starting.
As for Theo spending money… this offseason, I think he was prepared to make value buys (and did) and would have considered market buys in the right situation. I suppose I shouldn’t use past tense because the Cubans are still out there. I’d put Cespedes as a value buy, and Soler a market buy.
Next offseason, I think he’ll be prepared to make market buys in SP and will consider overmarket buys in the right situation (Cain, Hamels). After that, most of the pieces will be place and then he can fine tune here and there with a strategic buy at whatever price level is needed.
3B is still the big mystery to me though. I think how they fill that hole will be a key litmus test for Theo & Jed.
ballhawk - January 25, 2012
"stunk cost"
not sure if that was intentional, but it is hilarious
El Borto - January 25, 2012
intentional
came up with that one a few years ago… unfortunately.
ballhawk - January 25, 2012
Net season.
They didn’t come here to run Pittsburgh-west.
Most of the Cubs big roadblocks roll off after this season. For ’13, they only have $33.5M committed to Soriano, Marmol, and DeJesus (and the half million buyout for Maholm if the decline his option).
Now that doesn’t include Garza (if he’s kept / extended) or Soto (last year of arbitration… I’m in favor of dealing him) who could add a reasonable chunk. But even if Garza is 15 and Soto 6 and let’s say they pick up Maholm’s option ($6.5M), that’s still only $60.5M.
There would still be plenty of roster space left (19), but most of those could / would be filled by:
Arbitration 3 guy: Sonnastine
Arbitration 2 guys: Wells, Volstad, Stewart, DeWitt, Corpas
Arbitration 1 guys: Shark, Castro, Russell
Pre-arbitration guys: TWood and Barney most notably… but plenty of others
Obviously not all those guys will be around… but for the sake of the example, let’s say they are. That’s 11 of those 19 spots, not including other pre-arb guys… let’s say they fill 4 of those spots with such guys (Carpenter, Dolis, back-up catcher, Gaub, LaHair, Sappelt, etc.) and that total couldn’t possible be more than $20M (probably less).
That leaves 5 other guys to acquire (FA or trade) and you’ve got at least $20M to just get to $100M. If they set a $120M payroll, which seems reasonable, then you’ve got $40M to spend. And, keep in mind that several of those guys probably won’t be around and could be replaced either cheaper or with a pricier replacement (maybe you trade Soto and go with Castillo, try and find a ’12 trade deadline deal for Marmol, Garza could be easily gone, decline Maholm, let one of Wells or Volstad walk, get rid of DeWitt… obviously not all those will happen either, but they would pare a big chunk off the payroll).
One last note… if indeed the Cubs sign one or more of the Cubans, that would impact the totals.
fsuapollo - January 25, 2012
This is exactly what I was thinking of when I saw the chart.
ubercubsfan - January 25, 2012
As your attorney, I advise you to say nothing further...
daver - January 25, 2012
I think you may be onto something here, daver
I went to his site and paged through everything he had posted. His oldest post in the “Window” series is only a week ago. My original comment was posted over three weeks ago. The similarities are rather striking. About the only thing he didn’t do was add a black border. Oh, and list Adam Lind and Brian Roberts.
Daver, consider yourself retained. Not looking for a monetary award, just credit where credit’s due.
Release the hounds! Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war! If only SOPA and PIPA had been passed! Jessica, you were right! A pox on Wikipedia and Google’s houses!
ballhawk - January 25, 2012
Travis Wood
Where did he go? Also, who the hell is Lendy Castillo?
ferris2001 - January 25, 2012
Good catch.
I would assume Wood should be listed under “prospect starters.” And I think Lendy Castillo was a Rule 5 draft pick, but I could be wrong.
daver - January 25, 2012
My baseline for prospects was both Sickels and Goldstein's lists
If they were on their top 20 lists, I’ve left them out.
David Fung - January 25, 2012
that twitter sig is pretty annoying
just sayin
Hammer - January 25, 2012
"Follow me to freedom!"
ballhawk - January 25, 2012
TWood
isn’t on those lists because he does not have prospect eligibility. But he does have options remaining… so if he is not in the Cubs’ rotation, he probably goes to Iowa to wait for the first injury or deal. But I would think one of our “six starters” will be moved or hurt by the time we leave Mesa, so I’d expect him to be in the rotation.
fsuapollo - January 25, 2012
That's right.
I forgot about how many innings Wood has already pitched in the majors.
daver - January 25, 2012
Comments / observations from the graph
Not sure if these were your notes or from Sickels, but neither Kurcz or Zych are likely to be SP candidates. They are both better fits in the pen. And I was under the impression that Zych would be a fast mover after being a 4th round pick as a college closer. If he’s spending 4 years in the minors, it probably isn’t happening for him.
fsuapollo - January 25, 2012
I get the positions from Sickels and Goldstein as well.
David Fung - January 25, 2012
Can't. Get. Past. Sig. Line.
Don’t. Know. What. Was. Said.
KJ24 - January 25, 2012
I got it
I took it out. =)
David Fung - January 25, 2012
better....nice
Hammer - January 25, 2012
Thx ;)
KJ24 - January 27, 2012
samardahsfuiasgfasgfsg seems more deserving of the "scrabble" title than matt szczur
jesus christos - January 25, 2012
he already has one
Spellcheck. Of course maybe only BCB knows about that
Hammer - January 25, 2012
If Szczur makes the club
then I’m bringing a scrabble board to the games as my fan sign.
unretrofied93 - January 26, 2012
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