Yoennis Cespedes of Cuba runs to third base after hitting into the corner of the outfield againts Japan during the World Baseball Classic at Petco Park in San Diego, California. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Getty Images)
Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes defected from his home country after putting up some eye-popping numbers in both a Cuban league and in the 2009 World Baseball Classic (where he hit .458/.480/1.000 with a double, 3 triples, 2 home runs, 5 runs and 5 RBI. Small sample size, of course: six games).
On Wednesday, Cespedes established residency in the Dominican Republic and became a free agent.
That started a frenzy for fans of various teams to say, "Sign him! ZOMG he's the best thing EVAR!" Various news outlets reported many teams were interested; the Detroit News said the Cubs, Marlins and Tigers were "most active", and Cespedes himself about a week ago said the Cubs had shown the "most" interest, although the Marlins were reported to be wanting to be "aggressive to the point of stupidity" on Cespedes.
I say, let 'em. Follow me past the jump to find out why.
Here is the biggest reason for not paying Yoenis (some sources say "Yoennis") Cespedes the rumored $30 million he's asking for, from his baseball-reference.com "bullpen" page:
October 10, 1985
He's 26. He's only a little more than a year younger than Prince Fielder, and has played exactly zero games against anything resembling major league competition.
Yes, I know. I'm the one who said right here that the Cubs should sign Yu Darvish, which would have cost about three times what Cespedes would, even though he hasn't faced MLB competition, either.
Darvish, though, has played in the Japanese major leagues, which are several steps above Cuban baseball. Cuban baseball has been compared in some places to Low-A ball -- the level where most eventual major leaguers start out. Darvish is also a year younger than Cespedes.
The biggest bonus ever paid to an American draft pick was the $15 million given to Stephen Strasburg a couple of years ago. He looks like he'll be worth it, but even he's not proven yet -- and you want to give Cespedes twice as much?
The fact is, even the best Cuban players haven't produced that well in recent years in MLB. Probably the best of then was Livan Hernandez, who's been a serviceable starter, though not a star; his half-brother Orlando Hernandez, "El Duque", pitched well for a while, but who knows how old he really was when he came to the USA.
Of recent signings, we can look at a couple of big-dollar Cuban signings that have had mixed results. The White Sox signed Dayan Viciedo to a four-year, $10 million deal prior to the 2009 season; he'll make $2.5 million of that this year, and will be their fulltime right fielder with the departure of Carlos Quentin. Viciedo has shown flashes of what the White Sox hope will be a power-hitter's career, and he will turn 23 next month. But that's still a fair amount of money to have risked for little production so far.
Cespedes is three years older -- do you want to invest three times as much money in him?
A comparable deal is the one the Reds gave to Aroldis Chapman -- $30 million over six years. That's a lot of money for a pitcher who was unproven, even though he has a monster fastball and might make it into the Reds' rotation this year. Chapman, too, is young -- he'll be 24 net month, and now has major league experience.
Cespedes did poorly in a few winter league games in the D.R. -- small sample size, I admit. But his age makes me very leery about spending that kind of money. Some say Cespedes can go right to the major leagues. On what basis?
There's also some talk about signing Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler, possibly for as much as $20 million. That, too, would be larger than any bonus ever paid to a US draftee. Soler is 19 and at least has several years to develop. But $20 or $30 million is a pretty large gamble to take on either one of these players; given the track record of players out of Cuba, I think I'd pass.
Again, I suspect that many of you may criticize me for being against this while I was in favor of signing Yu Darvish. That's not unreasonable, but again, I believe the quality of the competition Darvish faced was far, far higher than the competition that Cespedes and Soler have faced, and to me, that's the difference.
If Theo and Jed have $30 million lying around the office (and evidence suggests they don't), I'd recommend they use it on next year's draft and other international signings (from Asia, primarily). Let the Marlins spend "to the point of stupidity."
0 recs | 205 comments
The bonus for a kid like Soler
Who’s compared to a top 10 draft pick, was always going to be larger than a top draft pick, because no one has exclusive negotiating rights to him. Only the Nationals could sign Strasburg.
The Cespedes part, I disagree with you, but not strongly enough to fight too aggressively. The thing is: its rare that you get a chance to get a superior talent, still short of his peak years, for nothing more than cash. Even if it’s a lot of cash, you’ve gotta think about it.
Brett Taylor - January 26, 2012
I'm not hugely in favor of signing him
but one argument is that we soon won’t have a financial advantage in signing amateur players. Theo, Jed and Tom probably had money earmarked for future drafts that won’t be needed any longer. It might be worth signing both players using the money that would’ve been put into over-slot bonuses.
tomas21 - January 26, 2012
Oh
I see about 20 people already made this point below. Should’ve read the comments THEN posted.
tomas21 - January 26, 2012
But is he a superior talent? That is hard to know given the competition he has faced.
ClarkFan - January 27, 2012
In my semantics dance,
I think he is a superior talent. His video displays that talent. Is he good at the basic baseball things is the question.
I’ll trust TheoJed
timh815 - January 27, 2012
Is he 26?
Are the birth documents of Cuban players more reliable than Dominican players?
Maybe it’s my ignorance that leads me to express concern. However, that Fausto Carmona situation is quite the nightmare for everyone involved.
Reddevil - January 26, 2012
Another reason for concern.
I’ll take him at his word — for now — that he’s 26. But you’re right, who knows for sure?
Al Yellon - January 26, 2012
Easily solved
cut him in half and count the rings
unretrofied93 - January 26, 2012
Too destructive. Check his teeth instead.
ClarkFan - January 27, 2012
I'm comfortable he's 26
He’s been on the international scene for a while now and has had to prove his age several times for international competitions. Plus, unlike in the Dominican Republic, the Cuban government has absolutely no reason to lie about such things. In fact, the Cuban government would have every reason to make them look older than they are to lower their value and give them less temptation to leave.
I have a lot of concerns about Cespedes too, but his age isn’t one of them.
Josh Timmers - January 26, 2012
Forgive me if I'm wrong....
….but aren’t you the one that wanted to shoot down any discussion of Albert Pujols being older than his listed age when others were discussing that distinct possibility? Now nobody knows for sure? I supoose the recent age-related issues of Leo Nunez and Fausto Carmona have opened that huge can of worms again? Just a thought.
krummy12 - January 26, 2012
A difference
is that Albert Pujols had emigrated to the United States in high school. He attended US schools where, presumably, he checked his age.
Josh Timmers - January 27, 2012
Precisely the difference.
Al Yellon - January 27, 2012
I think
you also said or implied that the age-question issues for Latin players had been resolved, not just for Pujols. Something about the State department fixing the matter.
I could be wrong on that, but I thought you were pretty outspoken about it.
tomas21 - January 27, 2012
Records for high school enrollment aren't exact given a thorough background check.
Especially student athletes of Pujols caliber.
South Side Expat - January 27, 2012
Proof of this?
Al Yellon - January 27, 2012
High schools change things for student athletes all the time.
Specifically attendance boundaries and grades. While a quick google of instances for age tampering isn’t going to satisfy you as there are only a few hits that show up in the first five pages of results, my assertion that student athletes like Pujols could have that happen is completely plausible based on how much evidence that other records for student athletes are changed. Enrolling a kid in public school is pretty easy, even without a state issued birth certificate. I don’t want to get into that, cause that will stray dangerously near your politics line, but it happens enough that it comes up in a presidential primary.
If you want to claim that Pujols age is settled based on US state department checking, that’s great. And that works. If you want to claim that his age is settled because of High School record checking, and Cespedes isn’t because he didn’t go to High School in the US, well that is a bunch of malarkey.
Do you see the difference?
South Side Expat - January 28, 2012
I would not have been happy with any of the FA's this year..
considering how much/long they signed for. Pujols and Fielder, too long and too much, a little less on the years and Fielder might have worked better. Darvish, too much for the unproven, although I would have liked him for less money. Cespedes, again too much for the unproven and not to mention things I have read about his plate discipline. Soler is somebody I’d like to get at the young age, but again, if he’s demanding that much money right now, I’m sorry but I pass. I never thought that I’d be happy about all these good players going elsewhere, and maybe I’m completely wrong, but it seems like we will be better without all that commitment to those players in the long run. Eventually we are going to have to make those commitments, but these haven’t felt like the right ones to make considering the state of the Cubs and what they all have been demanding.
KJ24 - January 26, 2012
Odds are
you will be right about most of them and wrong about one. I think they are long odds gambles though. Just because one works out still doesn’t mean that it was a good decision. I’m with you.
Archie - January 26, 2012
No love for Alexei Ramirez, Al?
elgato - January 26, 2012
Alexei Ramirez
… is a good player. Absolutely. But no superstar.
Al Yellon - January 26, 2012
Are we signing a superstar, or a very good outfielder hitting his prime?
I think that should be the crux of your argument, Al. At $30 million, that’s likely a 5-6 year deal, right? So what we should be arguing, is do we think that he can outperform someone like Marlon Byrd (3 years/$15M) or David DeJesus (2 years/$10M) two years from now?
I don’t see this as too big of a gamble I guess, but I’m not a season ticket holder.
IowaCubs- - January 26, 2012
I don't believe ...
the Cubs would be paying Cespedes or Soler superstar money, depending on how you define the term.
elgato - January 26, 2012
Another nitpick:
You probably should’ve mentioned Jose Contreras as well, no?
daver - January 26, 2012
Right.
Contreras was widely viewed as the best pitcher in Cuba. But he was well into his 30s when he was signed. Had some decent years, but was never a superstar.
Al Yellon - January 26, 2012
Kendry Morales
looked awful good before he blew out his knee in a freak injury.
Josh Timmers - January 26, 2012
And signed at age 22.
Al Yellon - January 26, 2012
So, you're saying 26 is TOO old?
Easy Ed - January 26, 2012
In a way, for this, yes.
Some think he could step right into a major league lineup. If that’s true, then I suppose this would be worth it. But I think that’s far too risky.
Al Yellon - January 26, 2012
But going back to what I said above...
Is $30 million “superstar” money? For a prospect I think you’re probably right, but he’s not a prospect anymore. He’s supposedly MLB ready and likely “very good.” It’s not fair to label him as a superstar.
IowaCubs- - January 26, 2012
It's a lot for a guy who hasn't really played above A ball
ClarkFan - January 27, 2012
Why does he have to be a superstar?
He’s an all-star quality SS, who the White Sox hit an absolute home run with. I’m guessing he is conveniently left out because he goes directly against the point that is attempted to be made. Honestly, Ramirez’s is probably the best situation to compare to Cespedes’s.
Ramirez was 26 the year he was signed. So is Cespedes. Ramirez played 136 games in the bigs his first year; Cespedes is expected to play a good share of games right away. Ramirez had/has contact and plate discipline concerns; so does Cespedes. Ramirez is a very strong defensive player at a premium defensive position; so is Cespedes. Ramirez has above average power for his position; Cespedes actually has what is described as PLUS power for the position.
The Sox only had to give him a 4 year, $4.4 million deal and over those 4 years, got 12.7 fWAR. That’s $50+ million worth of surplus value Ramirez provided them. Cespedes obviously will cost more, but assuming he gets something like 6 years and $40 million, he only has to essentially be Soriano to make that contract worth it. FWIW, he’s a FAR superior fielder to Soriano.
RynoRooter - January 26, 2012
....
Mitchener - January 27, 2012
part of the problem - last paragraph
The problem is the Cubs can’t do that with the new rules. Pocketing an extra 30 million and allocating it towards draft/international signings is something they simply won’t be able to do without sacrificing future picks.
I share all the same concerns about Cespedes and Soler that you note in your post (age, competition, etc), but if this is the LAST chance to flex our financial muscle with younger players, I understand the reasoning for taking a shot with it.
DartmouthCubsFan - January 26, 2012
OK, point taken.
You can’t take ALL that money and put it to those things.
But you’d certainly have LESS to spend on those things if you spend $30 million on Soler and/or Cespedes.
Al Yellon - January 26, 2012
Again...
Where is this $30 million coming from? Lets say we sign Cepedes to $40 million and Soler to $20 million and both are 5 years deal. It would cost them $12 million this year (if they didn’t backload it any) and they can put the $12 million toward the MLB payroll budget instead of their draft/IFA/development/etc budget if they wanted.
Even if the draft/IFA/development/etc budget was at $30 million… it still leaves them with $18 millions which is still enough to do everything else (I would imagine anyway).
bart s - January 26, 2012
The real porblem is
People assume they know what the Cubs budget is or can be. I do not understand this, because as far as I know the Cubs have not released any budget information. And I do not think they have in the past.
RiskyBusiness - January 26, 2012
Less to spend on what specifically
Draft and international spending are capped. This is the last chance to get young talent with money and money alone. Who cares if you overpay.
Wreckard - January 26, 2012
Just because
I agree with most everything you said Al, but just because Cepedes says he wants $30 million, and just because the Cubs have been actively courting him, does not mean that they would indeed spend that on him. I really find it hard to believe that they would do something like that this far into the off-season when it would really go against what they have done so far. I rather think they would like to have him and will aggressively go after him but they are not going to offer any more than what they have in their own budget that would allow it. Maybe they get creative with incentives or something to try and match the figure, but i do not see them giving him 30mil straight up. Perhaps if they believed he was the final piece missing, but we know that is not the case as there are several missing pieces.
CubsfaninLA - January 26, 2012
Please correct me if I'm wrong.
With the new CBA, how could that money go towards the draft? I mean, I guess you could really splurge, but then pay the penalties in tax and draft picks.
The Asian market is interesting and the Cubs have done pretty well there.. But aren’t most of the bonuses there, even the large ones, no more than $1M?
I’m also not sure any of us really have a great grasp on how much $ the Cubs might have “lying around”. What’s the evidence they don’t have it? Because they didn’t splurge on Fielder or Darvish?
And weren’t we frequently told that the baseball budget was allocated as an overall figure with sub budgets for the major league payroll and amateur scouting? Assuming so, wouldn’t whatever the Cubs have intended to spend on amateur signings still be “lying around”?
I’m definitely not trying to shred the post… I’m honestly asking. I’m on the fence with Cespedes. I’m in a little less agreement regarding Soler, since he has so much room to grow (though it has to be at the right price and $20M might be a bit much).
fsuapollo - January 26, 2012
See my comment above on the money issue.
Al Yellon - January 26, 2012
YES!!!!!
I’ve been waiting for this!!!!!
unretrofied93 - January 26, 2012
Sorry Al...
They can’t use it next year on draft or IFA because of the new CBA. That’s why they’re willing to fork over the $$$ this year because this is the last year you can do it without any penalties. They only got til like July 1st to sign IFAs as much as they want before the new CBA takes effect. There will be a $$$ limit for each team on the draft this year as well.
Also why “$30 mil lying around”?? Cepedes and Soler would cost $10-15 (could even be less than 10) mil in the first year of their contract if Cubs sign both… It’s not a posting fee here where it’s all paid upfront.
Another thing you have to think about is years of team control between these guys. You would (if it works out) have several years of good production at a very good price. If it didn’t work out, it’s not like they’re making like Fukudome money in that they can still trade them easily or it’s hurting the Cubs from signing other players. If Cubs sign them, I’m hoping it’s 5-6 years for each and hoping it’s around 60 mil total (40 for Cepedes or 7-8 mil/yr and 20 for Soler or 4 mil/yr)… If it doesn’t work, then it’s not going to hurt them much. But if it does, then they got 2 starters at a good price IMO.
bart s - January 26, 2012
Another thing I wanted to add on...
bart s - January 26, 2012
See my comment above on the money issue.
Al Yellon - January 26, 2012
Another thing I wanted to add on...
Someone at PSD posted ZiPS projections for Cespedes… Granted it’s just a projection, but it’s interesting to see though.
Year BA OBP SLG HR RBI SB WAR
2012 .270 .331 .435 23 86 9 3.3
2013 .269 .331 .439 23 84 9 3.4
2014 .267 .330 .435 22 83 8 3.2
2015 .268 .330 .436 22 82 8 3.1
2016 .264 .327 .428 21 79 7 2.8
2017 .263 .324 .418 19 74 6 2.5
2018 .259 .320 .402 17 66 5 1.9
2019 .256 .314 .386 13 54 4 1.3
Also used Adam Jones as a comparion.
bart s - January 26, 2012
Hm, well...
…if the deal was $35MM for five years and he put up about 3 WAR a season…that would be pretty damn good. I’d just wonder how they’d find him enough playing time.
daver - January 26, 2012
That's just it...
It’s assumed just by his defense and baserunning he could be a pretty easy 2 WAR player. They say all he’d need to do with the bat to become a 3.5 WAR player is put up something like a 110 wRC+, which is pretty reasonable for someone that will hit 25+ HRs.
bdlugz - January 26, 2012
Ha, I'm starting to get sold on him all over again.
daver - January 26, 2012
Why on earth...
do they include RBI’s in those projections?
kanderber - January 26, 2012
For fantasy baseball players
RynoRooter - January 26, 2012
I thought he had more speed than 9-8 stolen bases a year
i was thinking he was a 20-20 guy
Mitchener - January 26, 2012
Yea, thought he was supposed to be a 20+ SB guy?
Dcr18 - January 26, 2012
He didn't even put up 20+ SB in Cuba
I doubt he’s going to come over here and magically do that. Maybe 10-15 SB.
Ryno G - January 29, 2012
Agree to disagree
He stole 11 sb’s in 350 PA and he’s just peaking at his physical ability. His 11 sb’s tied for 7th in that category. So maybe the Cuban league doesn’t run that much. His speed is also rated very highly. From his video and scouting reports it sounded like he had the ability to steal more than 9 bases.
If he lands on a team like the Cubs who don’t have a lot of power bats then i could see him stealing close to 20. I see this team running more with Sveum.
Mitchener - January 29, 2012
Rearrange the letters in the word "CUBA" and look what you get....
“A CUB!”
It’s meant to be?
Fukudometer - January 26, 2012
you also get U-CAB
Univeristy for Cab Drivers
unretrofied93 - January 26, 2012
Maybe this would make him feel at home.
The 1994 road jersey:
Al Yellon - January 26, 2012
or take him straight from the Carribean into Wrigley for April/May games
he’ll miss the island, guarantee it.
unretrofied93 - January 26, 2012
Apparently our players change their ethincities based on where they're playing.
Flatley - January 26, 2012
BAC-U?
Blood alcohol content university? Maybe he should play for the red sox…
Bigp2287 - January 26, 2012
or the Cardinals
davidalanu - January 26, 2012
This post is just begging for the video.
So here you go!
RynoHoF - January 26, 2012
Impressive
Easy Ed - January 26, 2012
Ha top comment...
Mitchener - January 26, 2012
I agree on Cespedes.......
I’d be much more inclined to take a chance on Soler.
jballgame - January 26, 2012
Yelling Cespedes would be tough, not much of a nickname there
But we could yell SOLER POWER! from the bleachers
unretrofied93 - January 26, 2012
respectably have to disagree.
If we sign em for 35m for 5 years. Isn’t that like what we paid Byrd? I know Cespedes will be better then him. Now if the price gets “crazy” then yes Cubs shouldn’t get him. I’d definetly sign him for 35 for 5yrs.
bleedinblue76 - January 26, 2012 via mobile
Byrd is 15M@3YR i believe
unretrofied93 - January 26, 2012
Byrd got less than half that.
Three years, $15 million.
Al Yellon - January 26, 2012
Same approximate AAV.
And Byrd was in his 30s when he signed …
I’m not sure why you’re so freaked out by the dollars, Al.
elgato - January 26, 2012
Right...
…they’re gonna have to spend money again someday. I’d sign this Cespedes guy in a sec. It’s gonna be (at minimum) 2 years until the Cubs contend again. I’d like to see this guy on the Cubs then, WITH 2 years MLB experience under his belt. He’s a very impressive looking athlete. Gonna have to tone down the “show-boatin’” a bit tho. MLB pitchers ain’t gonna stand for that.
Easy Ed - January 26, 2012
Well, it depends on the money.
But 5 years, $30 million? I’d do that.
elgato - January 26, 2012
Definitely
Easy Ed - January 26, 2012
He's not actually freaked out by the dollars
He’s just decided he doesn’t want this guy so he’s going to throw every reason he can think of at the wall and see what sticks.
Nunyabidness - January 26, 2012
cespedes once farted and blamed it on someone else
jesus christos - January 26, 2012
so does that mean
that he is a butt ventriloquist?
LT - January 26, 2012
my, my, what a cheeky thing to say...
ballhawk - January 26, 2012
just another fluff piece
shoebox76 - January 26, 2012
This just stinks.
Al Yellon - January 27, 2012
Really? I thought it was rather cracking.
Pat19 - January 27, 2012
Who knows?
The stat pack knows.
SouthWabashSoul - January 26, 2012
You've got a point. It's almost silly to even have this discussion without more to go on.
At least the Cubs people have seen the guy play, seen him in person, worked him out, etc. The rest of us are just guessing.
davidalanu - January 26, 2012
Al just doesn't like him because the Marlins are interested in him.
Dcr18 - January 26, 2012
No, you would think that would make him want him MORE.
SouthWabashSoul - January 26, 2012
Heh.
I just think there’s way too much being made about a player who is nearly a complete unknown.
Al Yellon - January 26, 2012
But...
…when they DO become known, (in their mid to late 20s), AND are really good, they cost you $200M. We can get this guy for $35M. Isn’t every drafted player OR International Free Agent a risk? No guts, no glory.
Easy Ed - January 26, 2012
It seems to me that the International Free Agents always seem to have the higher risk/reward.
KJ24 - January 26, 2012
Not for or against Cespedes
Al, I think you wanted Fielder and they traded for Rizzo. It appears like opposite world here so if you don’t want Cespedes, he is a Cub. I think we are all fooled by what TheoJed are doing. Which is really fine by me.
Uncle Fungus - January 26, 2012
Thanks for the post, Al.
This cleared up some of my questions in the Fanshot in which everyone here trolled on.
ChicagoBlues1983 - January 26, 2012
Are you saying we obvious trolls were obvious?
daver - January 26, 2012
Obviously he is
Uncle Fungus - January 26, 2012
No offense intended, honestly.
I just read through that Fanshot, you kind of set yourself up for it. Try and proofread what you wrote, and possibly let the questions develop themselves in the thread. The questions you proposed were a bit off base to say the least. Again, just trying to be helpful.
KJ24 - January 26, 2012
Trololololo!
Flatley - January 26, 2012
Seriously dude?
It was an utter mess. You couldn’t even spell “Fukudome” right, while the guy has been a Cub the past four years. Can’t post crap like that an expect serious responses.
Dcr18 - January 26, 2012
Thinking Cespedes was a 1B was the dealbreaker for me...
ballhawk - January 26, 2012
I set myself up for what?
I set myself up for questions I wanted answers. I didn’t know anything about the guy other than he was highly sought-after and from Cuba. This is the third time I’ve posted something here and all you know-it-all Chicago jagoffs have nothing to do but point and laugh and mock. I love the Cubs. I came here to find out stuff I can’t get south of I-80. I also came here to meet other Cubs fans who are as passionate as I am.
Yeah, it was a quick post with little proofreading going on. I don’t think the questions were off base in that they are valid and as Al pointed out eloquently, he doesn’t want the Cubs blowing $30 million on another international “star.” I’ve got pretty thick skin but this forum is by far one of the worst places I’ve ever joined and am thinking about quitting here completely because you guys are a bunch of d#%^! I like Al’s writing and some of the statistical analyses here, but I can do without most of you F##@%#s so bugger off will you or go troll the Cardinals boards, which is where most of you belong. You can delete this damn post if you want but I’m friggin’ tired of coming here and making a valid question and getting my ass chewed for it.
ChicagoBlues1983 - January 27, 2012
Lighten up Francis
N Oakley - January 27, 2012
Epic post is epic.
Arbusto - January 27, 2012
I won't delete this.
However, knock off the namecalling.
Al Yellon - January 27, 2012
If you think
this is one of the worst forums on the internet… you need to spend more time online.
Posters " ruined" your thread because:
One: It was very poorly written. You admitted to not proofreading. If you’ve got 5 minutes to make the post, make 3 more minutes to proofread it. Nobody is going to freak about one typo, though getting player names correct is suggested.
Two: There were already at least two, if not more, Cespedes threads started. Since you acknowledge that these were basic questions, you’re better off adding to an existing thread.
Three: If your “valid question” involves not knowing what position a player plays, I would highly suggest simply adding it to another thread. Starting a thread with information that is very basic yet incorrect is going to get you mocked.
Nobody is mocking you for asking questions. You were being “mocked” for the manner in which you’ve asked those questions.
And if you thought that thread involved you getting your “ass chewed”, then no… you don’t have very thick skin.
fsuapollo - January 27, 2012
Google would have been a very useful, and quicker, tool to use.
For example.
Arbusto - January 27, 2012
Classic
gocubbies - January 28, 2012
lol
Dcr18 - January 27, 2012
don't blame folks here for calling you lazy because clearly you are
lookingdeadred - January 29, 2012
I have a lot of concerns about Cespedes too
Although as others have pointed out and you have acknowledged, the money really can’t be spent elsewhere under the new CBA. This is sort of a use it or lose it opportunity.
My problem with Cespedes is that his hit tool isn’t all that great. His power is probably a 70—that translates to around 30 HR a year. But he’s going to combine that with a low average and probably a low OBP. He looks like he’s already growing out of CF. So you’re looking at a good defensive RF with excellent power, decent speed and a low OBP. Is that worth $35 million? Yes, it is. But that’s probably his ceiling. He’s a much bigger gamble than Darvish or another free agent, for many reasons, including some that you’ve pointed out.
I wouldn’t really have a problem with getting Cespedes because I don’t know where else the money could be spent under the new CBA. But I’m not out banging the drum for it either. I think he’s a risky pick that could pay off big or go bust.
Josh Timmers - January 26, 2012
At $6 million a year or so ...
it seems like he’d be worth a flyer (given the CBA changes) because, if he doesn’t pan out, he’s not that expensive.
elgato - January 26, 2012
I just don't really see the bust potential
I think he’s at least a 2 Win player out of defense and power alone. He’s not getting over $10 million per, which is what a 2 Win player is “worth”. He might not be a steal, but he should be at least worth the contract.
On the other side, he does have some serious potential. Scouts are divided over his hit tool and plate discipline. Some think he’s a .260 hitter and .310 OBP guy, while others think he only needs more practice against better breaking stuff.
If it’s an either/or situation with Cespedes and Soler, I choose Soler. But if it’s possible to get both, I want them both.
RynoRooter - January 26, 2012
I'm in the
.260/.310 camp. But I’ve been wrong before.
The problem with that is that if you don’t hit .260, then you’re looking at a .240/.290 guy, and those guys are tough even with 30 HRs. Heck, it’s tough to hit 30 HRs with those numbers.
I think the bust potential comes from his minimal experience competing against top talent.
Of course, he did hit .458/.480/1.000 in the 2009 WBC. I think that’s good.
Josh Timmers - January 26, 2012
sounds like Soriano
but with better D
Hammer - January 26, 2012
He could end up like that
His defense would certainly be better.
Josh Timmers - January 26, 2012
And some better legs on the base paths.
Dcr18 - January 26, 2012
Soriano
used to be excellent there before his knees blew.
He was always a bad defensive second baseman. He was a good defensive LF maybe his first two years there. But a good LF is not as good as a decent RF.
Josh Timmers - January 26, 2012
I'm just comparing him to the Soriano of today.
Sure Soriano had wheels when we signed him too, but he was older and not entering his prime.
Dcr18 - January 26, 2012
For now.....
ClarkFan - January 27, 2012
Soriano with more speed and better defense is probably his floor, IMO
That’s a 2 Win player. His upside is much more substantial.
RynoRooter - January 26, 2012
Who was hitting behind him in the WBC?
santoswoodenlegs - January 26, 2012
some Cuban guy, I think.
davidalanu - January 26, 2012
Mark?
Easy Ed - January 26, 2012
Can he stick in CF. Because a .310 OBP makes it pretty hard for him to a real plus in a corner OF position.
ClarkFan - January 27, 2012
It's funny...
…I have many of the same misgivings that Al does, yet I’ve still found myself sucked into this story. I will say that, based on the Padres system, I have a pretty high opinion of Jed McCleod so his interest should count for something. I guess I won’t be outraged if the Marlins get him, but I’m intrigued by his potential.
daver - January 26, 2012
*Jason McLeod
I’m going to have to keep practicing the spelling of his name.
daver - January 26, 2012
Agreed
Let McLeod’s seductive scouting caress it’s way down your body into your heart and soul
Cubbiegoon - January 26, 2012
Why, Jason...your scouting is so strong.
Do you work out?
daver - January 26, 2012
If Jason, Theo and Jed like him....
we should be ok with their choice of signing him. Putting him against past Cubans is not fair to him.
I WANT PROOF OF THIS!!!
Cubbiegoon - January 26, 2012
This.
Dcr18 - January 26, 2012
26 is the perfect age
He’s in his prime. What MLB player becomes available at the age of 26?
Beyond that, frankly I think you could compare Cespedes just as easily to Jason Werth as you could to Adam Jones. Look what Werth gets paid.
Cespedes is going to be cheaper than Fukudome, and he simply cannot be worse. Faster and more energetic, for one, looks like a good leader for the Latin ballplayers. I think that for 6 years at $6 or $7 million per, this is a heck of a good gamble.
I don’t buy the $60 million garbage, and I don’t buy the $20 million tag on Soler either.
KO Stradivarius - January 26, 2012
Agreed...
…$20M @ 19/20 years old is absurd.
Easy Ed - January 26, 2012
I think Soler gets it
He’s a superior prospect to fellow Cuban Leonys Martin would got a 5 year, $15.5 million deal from the Rangers last year. And that was before the CBA went and put a clamp on IFA spending (although it’s possible the Rangers knew it was going to happen, based on their insane spending in LA).
RynoRooter - January 26, 2012
Soler is likely a top 20 prospect RIGHT NOW.
He’d be our #1 prospect in the system if we signed him.
bdlugz - January 26, 2012
If that's true
I’d think he’d have to be a sure thing, top 5 talent to merit anything close to $20 mil.
KO Stradivarius - January 26, 2012
Someone asked JJ Cooper of Baseball America
that today. He said he’d rank Soler as #4 in the Cubs system behind Baez.
Josh Timmers - January 26, 2012
Funny
If that’s a reliable assessment, he’s got a heck of a marketing team behind him. When I say top 5, I mean overall, not within our own organization. That would put him at B/B-, worthy of $7.5 or so.
KO Stradivarius - January 26, 2012
Soler has a lot of upside
but so does Baez, and Baez is younger and isn’t going to have to worry about adjusting the US game.
Josh Timmers - January 26, 2012
Wow
Easily the lowest I’ve seen him ranked. I would probably agree with it right now, however. Have to treat Soler like an elite DSL prospect until he gets a chance to face better talent stateside.
RynoRooter - January 26, 2012
OT
Just got off the phone. Just got a job at Goodyear Ballpark for all of Spring Training.
And boom goes the dynamite.
Hammer - January 26, 2012
Eat all the hotdogs and small children
Cubbiegoon - January 26, 2012
Cool...
…been trying to get on @ O’Brien Field in Peoria (Chiefs) for the past couple years. Congrats on the new gig.
Easy Ed - January 26, 2012
Congrats! Have a ball.
Emelie - January 26, 2012
Congrats!!
sue369 - January 26, 2012
Congrats.
Doing what?
Al Yellon - January 26, 2012
Event/Guest Services
It is fairly general and has a wide range of duties. I’m just hoping that I get to be the bullpen/locker room attendant for a period of time. I’ve been trying to get one of these gigs forever. Pay sucks but that’s ok with me.
Hammer - January 26, 2012
See you there on 3/25.
Al Yellon - January 26, 2012
1) You’re underestimating the level of talent in the Cuban leagues, which are considered around the AA / AAA level
2) The WBC doesn’t just resemble major league competition, in most cases it was literally major league competition. Literally.
Wreckard - January 26, 2012
Literally?
bdlugz - January 26, 2012
Literally.
Wreckard - January 26, 2012
Where did you hear that?
I’ve never heard anyone compare the Cuban leagues to Triple-A. Even Double-A is a stretch. Mostly I’ve heard anywhere between Short-Season A (like Boise) to High-A (Daytona).
There is major league talent down there. But most of the teams have a lot of filler that couldn’t play Div 1 college ball in the states.
Josh Timmers - January 26, 2012
I'll defer to you on this one, since you're far more knowledgable than me on these matters.
Wreckard - January 26, 2012
yabbut
Cuba’s pool from the 2009 WBC was Mexico (legit), South Africa (not) and Australia (not). Lots of his stats are against unimpressive teams.
In pool play, he went 2 for 4 against South Africa, with a HR off a middle reliever, Donovan Hendricks, who was 19 at the time and (I’m just going out on a limb here) was neither then, nor is now, a major league caliber pitcher.
He then went 2 for 4 against Australia, getting his only other HR of the tournament off another middle reliever, Damian Moss, who was at one time a major league pitcher but had been out of the league since 2005, and who at the time was a permanent AAA player who would go on to pitch decently for Colorado’s AAA affilliate.
Together, those are 4 of his 11 hits, and both of his HR’s. So apart from sample size and whatnot, let’s not go too crazy about the significance of his showing at the WBC.
Orval Overall - January 26, 2012
Fair enough.
Wreckard - January 26, 2012
Just because $30 million is the asking price
doesn’t mean someone has to pay it. I’d agree with this post a whole lot more if it said something like: Why the Cubs should pass on paying $30 million to Yoenis Cespedes. But you take his asking price as if it’s a given. That’s only the market price if there’s someone out there willing to match it. If not, maybe he signs for something that’s a better gamble, and you certainly would want the Cubs to have been in the mix enough to at least know if that’s possible.
Use the Darvish signing as an example. You had people on here saying it wasn’t worth bidding on him because it would inevitably be a $100+ million commitment. Well, no, as it happened the Cubs made a bid that turned out to be lower than other teams were willing to pay and it cost them nothing. But it was still worth doing, because if Tor and Tex had whiffed on the opportunity, you would have done real well to be the team that bid the correct price for him.
Point being, if he’s a useful upgrade for us, they should offer him what they think he’s worth. If other people value him more highly and have the resources, they’ll likely sign him. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t put in a bid.
Orval Overall - January 26, 2012
ding ding ding.
There are variations and permutations on this. Soler will sign with a MLB team. So will Cespedes. The question should be, how much should we pay for each of them. If TheoJed can get both Soler and Cepedes for 30 mil, and think they are worth it (note that there are two assumptions there), only a person very cold on both would be opposed.
I think the concept should be phrased this way. Since Soler and Cespedes will both sign this off-season, what amount would you trust our new front office to spend on Soler? On Cespedes? Assume a 5 year deal for both.
timh815 - January 26, 2012
Personally, I don't think any team is going to give Soler more than the $15.1M Strasburg got from the Nationals
in the MLB draft. I’d say Soler will sign for about what Bryce Harper got, closer to $10M. I’d say Cespedes will sign for close to what Chapman got $30M.
One thing I think most can agree on is that Cespedes will get more $$$ than Soler…….
magicblue - January 26, 2012
Strasburg was limited to 15.1
because he couldn’t negotiate with anyone else. Cespedes is a FA, as is Soler.
timh815 - January 27, 2012
I still don't think MLB teams will sign an unknown quantity like Soler to a large FA deal
there is just no precedent at all for someone his age getting a true FA contract, so the normal rules of FA don’t apply IMHO. Also, none of the numbers I’ve seen thrown around for Soler are above $15.1M, at least not yet…..
magicblue - January 27, 2012
Soler isn't a 100 MPH P
His contract will be based on scouting and perceived upside. Strasburg was getting a big contract because he had proven very solid against stateside colleges.
I think Soler is more likely to be an All-Star than Yoennis, and also more likely to never reach the MLB.
timh815 - January 27, 2012
You bring up some very reasonable points, Tim.
But I think there are a couple factors that will drive up the price.
One has already been mentioned… the multiple possible bidders.
The second would be that this is really the last chance for “unlimited” spending. So I would expect some of the bigger markets might take one last chance to flex their muscle.
When you’re talking about $10M vs $20M on a 4 year deal, that seems like a big difference. But to the big market clubs, I don’t think $2.5M a year is all that big a “risk”.
So I would say you’re probably right about his value and what teams would prefer to spend… but I think the # will be closer to 20 due to some market factors.
fsuapollo - January 27, 2012
For me
Soler at 20 M>>>Cespedes at 25
timh815 - January 27, 2012
I wouldn't give that much to soler
I can’t find any stats or video on him. I wouldn’t be as comfortable giving 20 millions dollar to Soler after seeing him in a limited workout session.
At least with Cespedes you have more to judge him as player.
Mitchener - January 27, 2012
I'm guessing the FO knows a little more about him then we do.
Dcr18 - January 27, 2012
Just look at guys out of the NPB....
The only difference is they can negotiate with any team they want instead of just one…
Teams will definitely shell out for top talent on a FA deal. This is basically like paying for a top 5 pick in last years draft, knowing you’ll never be able to go overslot again. What is the value of that? I think at least 15 million.
bdlugz - January 27, 2012
Economics of the game, the CBA, and a lousy farm system
Other reasons to argue for guys like Cespedes and Soler – TheoJed has to look for every possible way to rebuild this barren farm system, because the pickins are getting slim in the coming years. Grabbing these two guys right now at a potential bargain is a sure way to beef things up quickly.
This may be one of the cheapest and easiest ways to do rebuild this team, far cheaper than trades and regular FA signings, far cheaper than posted Japanese players whose success rates are sort of abysmal the last several years. Cheaper than the Fukudomes of the world, more expensive than your usual prospect. But these are strong talents who play at a very competitive level.
And of course, the possession of multiple outfielder prospects will give us more trade flexibility for pitching, which is what we really need.
KO Stradivarius - January 26, 2012
We paid 30 mil for Dome.
That was too much.
Soler is a different case. So is Cespedes.
I’m good with Soler at 20, but would prefer him at 16. I would rether be on the 20 side of 25 for Cespedes.
But if TheoJed will sign off, they have my endorsement.
timh815 - January 26, 2012
I thought it was in the mid-40's for Dome?
RynoRooter - January 26, 2012
4 years, $48 million
Yikes.
RynoRooter - January 26, 2012
Yeah, you're right.
Way too much. For a guy that was a fringy hitter/decent defender.
timh815 - January 26, 2012
That's right
It was a terrible deal. In retrospect.
KO Stradivarius - January 26, 2012
Did we sign Fielder yet?
Mapmaker - January 26, 2012
Yes.
Press conference tomorrow.
shoemile - January 26, 2012
Yes
but it’s Fielder Jones, who died in 1934. So it’s more of a seance than a press conference.
Josh Timmers - January 26, 2012
The Cubs bid on Darvish
Their bid had to of been close to 30 million. Money isn’t an issue.
Mitchener - January 26, 2012
subtract atleast 10 million
jesus christos - January 26, 2012
Source?
Mitchener - January 26, 2012
google it
santoswoodenlegs - January 26, 2012
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/45740699/sports/player_news
jesus christos - January 26, 2012
Well even if u consider bid of 20 million + what i would cost to sign him 10 million a yr
Then it’s around 30 million.
Mitchener - January 26, 2012
That is a pretty
desperate attempt to be right about this argument.
tomas21 - January 27, 2012
Azjazzman?
BrewCrew'sPrinceofDarkness - January 26, 2012
With the changes to the way money can be poured into the draft
Going after Cespedes seems like a decent move. The more depth we have the better.
AussieCub - January 26, 2012
as long as the depth is in talent...
and not a deeper hole to climb out of.
santoswoodenlegs - January 26, 2012
I'd take Soler.
Eh on Cespedes, especially if the Marlins are going to drive up the price.
shoemile - January 26, 2012
Al, you and I are never going to see eye to eye on FA's like this
Cespedes is EXACTLY the type of guy they should be going for. He is a risk, for sure, but not a risk that is going to prevent a team from making other moves while that team is developing. The upside of a guy like this is huge and if it fails, fine, move to the next. If Darvish fails, it’s going to put a serious hurting on a team’s ability to develop.
I don’t know what he is going to turn out to be, but I’ll take people’s word on his upside. And I’ll take a shot that he might be something.
I haven’t read all the comments here, but if it hasn’t been pointed out, you simply cannot compare Strasburg’s situation to Cespedes’. Strasburg only signed for that low because there was only one bidder and that’s the way the rules are set up for US players. Had there not been, he would have gone for far more than Darvish did.
jerry morales rules - January 26, 2012
Bingo!!!
Great post…
Can you imagine how much Bryce Harper would’ve gotten if any team was able to sign him instead of being drafted by the Nationals and only being able to deal with them???
Then you can see why a guy like Soler (I’ve seen Sickels or Callis say they would rank Soler #10-20 prospect in MLB) and with Leonys Martin getting 5yr/15.5 mil that Soler would probably end up somewhere around 20 mil.
One last thing…. Teams pay for UPSIDE. Rarely do you see them pay for what they’re worth or base it on an average production.
bart s - January 26, 2012
Harper
probably would have gone for around $50-60 million had he been a free agent.
Josh Timmers - January 27, 2012
Right
You gamble on the young guys, because the upside is through the roof.
Poloplaya14 - January 26, 2012
26 is not young.......
especially if he starts at AAA.
jballgame - January 26, 2012
For a guy on the free agent market, 26 is absolutely young.
Poloplaya14 - January 27, 2012
This isn't........
a guy on the typical free agent market. While he’s technically a free agent, he HAS NOT proven himself at the Major League level and therefore, at 26, has less time to prove he can make it in MLB. Equating him to a free agent is a terrible representation.
jballgame - January 27, 2012
Cespedes gives me the Fukudome heebie geebies.
SackMan - January 26, 2012
Well, it looks like Cespedes is going to be a Cub.
Prince Fielder
Yu Darvish
Thanks Al.
WGNstatic - January 26, 2012
Lol.
This is funny.
BrewCrew'sPrinceofDarkness - January 26, 2012
Heh.
I laughed.
Al Yellon - January 27, 2012
Hehehe
Archie - January 27, 2012
Outside the box - $50mil - 10 years
Great money for him. Amazing value if it pans out. The extra $15mil guarantee gives us an advantage with the new rules.
I would make a point to do similar if not longer with Soler. Give him $60mil for 12.
Worst case Cespedes is a Fukudome flop. Soler is half a Soriano. Both are position players so less likely to completely blow out for injury…but that is why we have insurance either way. If either one works out. This is a win for many years. And maybe a ring?
That amount of money today seems golden to these guys. Golden to all of us actually. if you believe in their personality and dedication you try something like this. Both have the talent to justify those career numbers.
And with inflation this will be golden.
This is completely against the new Theo/Jed rules of contracts. But is interesting.
veenstr - January 26, 2012
Umm. Interesting?
I’m going to politely doubt they will be signed to that kind of contract. By anyone. Plus you are the first person I have seen tossing out the idea of giving more many to Soler than Cespedes. I want them both, to be honest, but only if we max out at 5/$30 for YC and about 4/$12-16 for Soler.
CubFan90 - January 27, 2012
Ummmm
politely. No thank you.
Archie - January 27, 2012
Are you saying...
…that’s what you believe Cespedes will sign for or, hypothetically, what you would offer him? Because that’s way, way, way beyond any of the salary estimates I’ve read. No offense, but giving him 10 years would be insane.
daver - January 27, 2012
I am simply saying the cost differential and cost advantage could be in our favor over time. I have no idea the right numbers or time frames. But before July 1st we can take advantage of a system by using new ideas that do NOT punish us in the future outside of potential cash losses.
I think you hear the long term and get shocked based on past bad experiences. But if the long term comes at a reasonable price why would that be bad? If the entire contract is bust, it is not as bad as Soriano. Fan’s don’t like him. No one will take him.
Why not lock up good young talent long term? Some might not pan out, but the loss is not as great as these big contracts that are happening now.
Maybe the long term deal is incentive laden. I am not talking $50K bonus’s. I am talking lets make it $1-2mil bonuses based on performance.
Make it $10mil. If you start the year and are told that you will make an extra $10mil dollars if you provide us +3 WAR lets get creative. Lets give people a reason to perform year after year.
I would rather see money spent for could performance, instead of status quo.
I am sure a contract like this will NOT be signed. But we have to break the norm. And find new ways to have an advantage other teams do not. Today that means buying as much young talent to stock our system to get us through our currently depleted system and to game the system in 5 years.
veenstr - January 27, 2012
Hmmm... Very realistic!
Dcr18 - January 27, 2012
Personally, I dont think there is a right or wrong answer to this. There are good valid reasons for not signing him. I think they should give him a shot. They havent really taken a risk this year and the only thing they have to lose is money. As long as they sign Soler, Im ok with it. I tru Theo will be smart with the money but I also expect him to take some risks with it as well. I think this is one of the solid risks. It could be a waste but if he pans out it could be a big signing for years to come…
stevo81989 - January 27, 2012
I am NOT against Cespedes...BUT..
It would be nice to see Cespedes develop into the STUD a lot of very smart people think he can be….for our Cubbies…I think there is a 2-for-1 option no one seems to have pointed out.
I would much rather see Soler and the 18 y/o Lefty Gerardo Conception. By all accounts the kid throws low to mid 90’s and is fairly advanced for being only 18 y/o. Some scouts say he has a plus Curve to match with the decent FB and a developing slider and change. His upside is more of a 3 – 4 with a stretch to be a 2 if everything develops well.
Put them on the 5 year plan and you have a very nice combo coming through the system around the same time guys like Baez and Maples are coming up / seeing serious MLB time. Rizzo, Jackson, and McNutt should be fully developed and god willing Vitters is who he was supposed to be. It seems like the two of them could be had for what Cespedes is looking for, and you add depth at positions of need going forward. Also they will be 24 / 25 and headed for a lot of prime years ahead where Cespedes will be on the down side of his career (that is unless he is already in his mid 30’s)
I know this is a “best case” scenario but it sounds good on paper. If you tack on 2 more good prospects on top of 2012’s draft class and 2011’s pretty solid draft you may see the organization be pretty deep pretty quickly.
wude - January 27, 2012
Actually a lot of people have talked about those two.
Soler has been discussed just about as much as Cespedes. The Cubs are probably going hard after all three.
Dcr18 - January 28, 2012
sign him
but not for any crazy amounts.at 26 you cant spend this money and stick him in the minors.and since he’s never faced mlb pitching you dont know what you’re getting here.once again we have to trust theo to make the right decision.
NOMAR - January 28, 2012
I debated whether this was worth a new thread...
so we’ll see what kind of discussion we get here.
But the Trib’s Mark Gonzalez had some interesting tidbits this morning regarding the Cubans, though naturally from the South Side perspective.
The one that really caught my eye was:
Granted this is simply one scout’s take… but If it is reasonable that Soler could be Stanton-lite… then yes please… sign him right now.
For those who don’t feel like clicking, the scout was more lukewarm on Cespedes… and didn’t really offer much on Concepcion other than he might be “more affordable”.
fsuapollo - January 28, 2012
I've never heard any comparisons to Stanton for Soler....
That’s much more power than I anticipated him having.
bdlugz - January 29, 2012
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