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Much has been written about the Cubs' chances in 2012 on this website and others. The consensus is that this will be a rebuilding year and the team won't really be good again for a couple of years. I would prefer to look at this year as a "building" year rather than rebuilding. To me, rebuilding is what the Pittsburgh Pirates are doing and have been doing for the last 20 years. They have something in common with the former Soviet Union in that both are fond of the "five year plan". Basically, this means that every five years you come up with a new plan. I don't think the Cubs are going to need that long to get back to being a playoff team.The Houston Astros will be moving to the American League West next year which will make the National League Central a five-team division rather than a six-year one. Right now the two best teams in the division are the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers. The Cincinnati Reds should be better this year and they've got a lot of talent. I expect the Pittsburgh Pirates to be better this year and the Houston Astros to finish last. As for the Chicago Cubs, my prediction is that they will finish 78-84 in fifth place. I agree with most fans that this will be a tough season because the team won't be making the playoffs, but I think that unlike past seasons that we will soon begin to see reasons for hope in the future as evidenced by the future becoming the present.
I am confident in new manager Dale Sveum being a leader. This team had a manager last year, but it did not have a leader. Nowhere was this more evident than in comments last week by Mike Quade who responded to Dale Sveum's quote about the Cubs being held to a higher standard this year. Quade said, "Maybe I'm being an idiot, but I thought we gave a pretty damn good effort every night. I don't know, maybe that was [Sveum's] philosophy or a backhanded shot. I didn't hear that." Is it any wonder why this guy was fired? Keep in mind, folks, this was the guy who was hired over Ryne Sandberg, Eric Wedge, Bob Melvin and others. Quade went on to say, "If comments are made...there's no reason for anybody to do anything but look forward. I can't be bothered because I was pretty damn happy. Did everybody run out every ball? No. That's going to happen with a lot of people [on a lot of teams]. I thought [Aramis] Ramirez gave a helluva effort last year. Maybe because it was contract year, I don't know." And therein lies the problem with the 2011 Cubs. Yes, that's going to happen with a lot of people on a lot of teams, Mike. But that doesn't mean that YOU have to accept it. You as a manager should want to hold your team to a higher standard and that is precisely what Dale Sveum is going to do this year. I will miss Aramis Ramirez's power this year, but I won't miss his lackadaisical attitude. I also won't miss Carlos Zambrano's "Jekyll & Hyde" act. Now, if only the Cubs could find a way to get rid of Alfonso Soriano.
It won't be easy to watch the 2012 Cubs at times and I'm sure that there will be more than a few people on this website and others calling for Dale Sveum to be fired and proclaiming "Jedstein" as a "failure". Cubs fans are impatient and understandably so. We're like the car in the race that breaks down and has to watch all of the other cars pass us by. But if there is any silver lining it is that the team has new management and real leadership for the first time in a long time. I believe that Theo Epstein is the best front office hire the Chicago Cubs have made since they hired Dallas Green in 1981. As hard as it may be to believe, that was 30 years ago. 1982 was not a very good year for the Cubs as they went on to finish 73-89. However, you've got to start somewhere and some of the guys on that team would later play big roles on that 1984 ballclub that won the division. The team that we see right now is going to look a lot different in a couple of years. The farm system will be rebuilt and I believe that within a couple of years that it will be ranked as one of the top 10 farm systems in Major League baseball. We're going to see young guys come up from the farm system who have learned the "Cub Way" and this philosophy will be witnessed in the chemistry and attitude in the clubhouse and on and off the field. It will eventually lead the team to the playoffs and we will have a manager and a front office that has already been successful in bringing one "cursed" team a World Series championship. I am confident that this and even better things will happen in Chicago. We don't have to compete with the New York Yankees in our division. Within a couple of years, the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers will be the ones rebuilding. And then it'll be our time and we will be a perennial contender that expects to win every single year. Hope springs eternal!
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
0 recs | 149 comments
78 wins would be a great year for this team. I'd be happy with that.
Rick B - February 10, 2012
how about 80?
they close strong in September
Ivy Walls - February 10, 2012
Could not help but think toward the end
That even though Steve Martin primarily is playing Banjo now, you have taken over the use of Air Quotes.
StevenABQ - February 10, 2012
can I air quote you on that?
ballhawk - February 10, 2012
So maybe I'm a little 'overweight,' and I don't 'bathe regularly'...
daver - February 10, 2012
Things are definitely looking up
we may not be viewed as a contender, but I think this year is the start of something good.
mikeschieve - February 10, 2012 via Android app
eh, cards won't be rebuilding within a couple of years
they’ve got excellent pitching in the pipeline and an excellent front office. the brewers will depend on what pitching they can retain but the cards won’t be going away.
John T. Unger - February 10, 2012
I agree there should be no counting the Cardinals out until proven otherwise
but there’s a bit more upheaval going on that might impact their recent track record.
They’ve recently lost front office personnel. They lost (begrudgingly) the best manager in the game. They lost the best pitching coach in the game. They just lost the best hitter in the game.
Their offensive core is definitely aging and rather injury prone already. Berkman, Beltran, Holliday, and Furcal are all on the downside (Holliday isn’t that far from the apex). Molina is approaching the typical catcher expiration age, though he’s still going strong at this point.
Craig, Jay, and Freese all very well could be strong contributors moving forward, but the roster is largely constructed to WINRIGHTNOW.
I would expect Wainright to regain his form (unfortunately for the Cubs), but it is no sure thing. Carpenter has his long injury history and is getting a bit long in the tooth. The bullpen is pretty strong and has youth on its side, but bullpens seem to be baseball’s ultimate wild card… will they be as effective without Duncan?
They definitely have talent in the pipeline, but they are very veteran heavy and now have a rather inexperienced field coaching staff. So, don’t get me wrong… I’m far from writing off the Cardinals in the coming years. And they probably won’t have to go through a full rebuild… but they may very well be in line for a retooling around 2014 (if not 2013).
fsuapollo - February 10, 2012
Cards are going nowhere.
They run a good system top to bottom. As much as it pains me to say it.
Grockcubs - February 10, 2012
But that's kind of part of the point.
The Cards’ “system” (management) has undergone some pretty big changes. The on field ones are obvious, but they’ve also had some front office changes, too. Perhaps those transitions will work seamlessly. Perhaps they won’t.
fsuapollo - February 10, 2012
and at the same time they still produce polayers
to replace them, like Freese for example. They remind me of how Atlanta just kept doing so in the i90’s, only they do it even better. They are not going anywhere IMHO
Cubbie-Tim - February 11, 2012
Correction.
The Cardinals system did not produce David Freese.
He was acquired by trade from the Padres.
For Jim Edmonds.
Al Yellon - February 12, 2012
Correction to the correction
For the record, Freese played as many games in the Cards’ minor league system as he did the Padres’ system, so to say the Cards produced him is not off the mark.
Al’s nitpicking is not only not accurate, it misses the point. The Cards keep finding/producing new young players to keep the team rolling, while the Cubs have not. Hopefully TheoJed changes that.
lookingdeadred - February 12, 2012
Depends on what your definition of "produced" is.
Generally, when a prospect is traded for a major league player (as was Freese for Edmonds), he is considered to be “produced” by the original organization.
I should note that a large number of the games played in the Cardinals’ minor leagues were after he was already considered to be a part-time major league player (2009 and 2010).
Semantics aside, the point is valid. The Cubs have not produced major league players, which TheoJed are on the way to changing.
Al Yellon - February 12, 2012
I don't disagree.
They will probably remain strong contenders. But I don’t believe that is a shoo-in.
Part of the reason the Cards kept “finding” players was scouting and GM work. The other part was TLR putting them in the best position, with the help of Duncan for the pitchers, to succeed… whereas the Cubs have tended to do the opposite (from Neifi as a top of the order every day starter to James Russell the SP to “Blakey” in LF).
All the point was is that they have had some rather sizable organizational changes. Perhaps they overcome those and simply keep churning. But it is also possible that the ‘fall back to the pack’ a bit.
fsuapollo - February 12, 2012
2013
78-84 seems accurate – I think that the regime change and the increase in overall depth will keep us from losing more.
You know what I’d like to know, is how TheoJed is going to spend their $40 million next winter, when we are free of Zambrano’s money, and also Dempster’s and Byrd’s.
Rizzo and Jackson will be with the team, perhaps struggling, but I am as excited to see them play as any offense prospects we have had in a long time. Along with Castro, a good nucleus. I don’t worry so much about our future offense.
The Cubs need pitching. They need an ace. This is where I want to see something happen. I don’t like giving huge contracts to pitchers… So I wonder how they will fix this rotation.
KO Stradivarius - February 10, 2012 via mobile
Greinke 2013 or bust
subtle - February 10, 2012
Also, Votto in '14
subtle - February 10, 2012
Not a big believer in Rizzo?
daver - February 10, 2012
I don't think we should be looking for 1B just yet.
I do think we should keep Pittsburgh on the speed dial, just in case they get spooked by Andrew McCutchen’s arb demands.
And seriously, they need to get Zack Grienke if he hits FA.
D98 - February 10, 2012
Agreed.
I’m curious to see how the Matt Cain thing works out, too.
daver - February 10, 2012
Cainer would be #1 on my all-in-or-bust list
Then Hammy, assuming no extensions are in the offing.
ballhawk - February 10, 2012
Mike Quade?
How did you get into ballhawk’s account?
Al Yellon - February 10, 2012
I thought we were done with the nicknames...
But seriously… I would prefer Cain over Grienke, but thats just me
LongLiveHarryCaray - February 10, 2012
Just call me ballsy...
ballhawk - February 10, 2012
I already have ;-)
Emelie - February 12, 2012
No way
We already have a Kaner. Can have a Cainer too. Sorry, write a line through his name.
RiskyBusiness - February 10, 2012
I like Cole Hamels.
I just can’t see the Phils signing everyone, and if Hamels goes to the market, Cubs should overwhelm him and bring him to Chicago.
Grockcubs - February 10, 2012
Very expensive
He’s been pissing off the Phillies for a couple of years now with his demands. Not too sure about him. I’m not crazy about Greinke either, kind of a head case.
Two years to Lincecum – he interests me if his numbers stay strong, but if we see downward trends, I’d stay away. Like Dontrelle, his techniques may not work forever. Cain is promising, though he has an odd habit of not racking up wins.
King Felix might be another guy to keep an eye on.
KO Stradivarius - February 10, 2012
I think Lincecum's numbers are already trending downward, relatively speaking.
And I thought the Greinke being a head case thing had been kinda put to rest. He didn’t seem to have any problems in Milwaukee this past season.
daver - February 10, 2012
Milwaukee ain't Chicago North.
NobodySpecial - February 10, 2012
When your fans are too stupidly drunk to realize who you are it's easy not to get nervous about it.
unretrofied93 - February 10, 2012
Crazy for optimism
Have you looked at the lineup that is likely to roll into town in April? It is horrendous, plain and simple. It will not score runs consistently enough to help out a marginal pitching staff and the bullpen is very likely to be middling or worse. That is not the recipe for 78 wins….more likely 68. If they do indeed win 78 games, a parade should be thrown in their honor.
You can continue the blind optimism that the new regime is doing something good….there just isn’t a full dump truck full of players that will actually turn this program around. No matter the thoughts on their 2011 draft, amateurs are very prone to failure and building off of one draft class is fool’s gold at best.
Understanding it is impossible to read the crystal ball, barring some major, major moves and some incredibly good fortune with their amateurs over the next couple of years, logic dictates that the needle won’t really move in the direction of contending for more than just a few years.
krummy12 - February 10, 2012
...
Yeah… like trading an injury prone future closer for a top prospect 1B and intriguing starting pitcher, dealing a troublesome pitcher for a 3 year cost controlled #5 starter, trading a set up man for a starter, a very interesting 2B prospect and a 4th OFer, signing DDJ and Maholm to below market team friendly deals, etc? Nothing is being done here, folks! Bring back the pessimism!
Almost no one thinks the Cubs have a shot at competing this year, I’ll be happy if they win 73 games myself. However with the pieces they’re putting into place, with the money off the books next year and with the FA class available next year, to assume we can’t compete in 2013 and beyond is discounting what the FO has done and what they’re capable of doing.
I don’t even know why I’m replying to you, since you’re so set in this mindset that nothing will change your mind. But even though the Cubs will be pretty terrible to watch in 2012, there is finally a LOT of reasons to be excited for 2013 and beyond.
bdlugz - February 10, 2012
Agreed.
And what’s amazing is that some posters don’t seem to grasp that any optimism is about post-2012.
elgato - February 10, 2012
I agree with the full premise
and the vast majority of the details…… but can we please, please drop the “injury prone” label for Cashner? He’s had one injury. Granted, it cost him (essentially) all of last season and it is probably fair to question how he might “bounce back” this year….. but I don’t think it is fair to hang the “injury prone” label on him.
fsuapollo - February 10, 2012
Haha, to be fair, I've never referred to him as that before then, and I don't believe it myself.
I just wanted to sweeten the pot, so to say. I like Cashner, and hoped he would be tried as a starter again, but with both the Cubs and Padres viewing him as a bullpen arm for now, I’m not going to be sad to lose him for Rizzo.
bdlugz - February 10, 2012
And I agree with that.
It may turn out to be an outstanding trade, particularly if Cashner stays in the pen.
I just got tired this offseason of all the “Cashner is an injury risk / walking infirmary” comments. Maybe he will be injury prone… but that is still to be seen.
fsuapollo - February 10, 2012
No, you just wanted to try your best to “win” an internet argument with statements that you don’t even believe. Ridiculous.
It’s time to step away from the keyboard and really re-evaluate what the hell you’re doing with your free time.
bluemagic9 - February 11, 2012
I always appreciate when people dole out life advance on the internet.
Arbusto - February 11, 2012
you just want to win the award as best life coach on BCB
Cubbie-Tim - February 11, 2012
Someone woke up on the wrong side of their season ticket bill...
I certainly do believe in my argument. I know this is probably completely shocking to you – someone who never argues about anything here – but I believe I would not be the first person to use a particular piece of evidence THEY don’t specifically believe in, however, that is used by others, in order to strengthen their argument.
Please, don’t let me stop your internet preaching though; you do such a fabulous job at it. You’re always a pleasure to have around here!
bdlugz - February 11, 2012
Sober up and come back next week, kiddo.
bluemagic9 - February 11, 2012
You really need to get some reading comprehension.
I quite clearly stated that I believe in my overall argument, which I do. Follow? I then stated I used a thought that I felt made my argument stronger. Although I don’t believe that specific thought, others do. Still follow? Using that one fact that others believe in and I don’t does not mean I do not believe in my overall argument. Got it?
I can’t imagine your tone and attitude is appreciated by anyone here. How about you try and act your age.
bdlugz - February 11, 2012
Keep spinning.
“I can’t imagine your tone and attitude is appreciated by anyone here.”
Look who’s talking.
bluemagic9 - February 11, 2012
Whatever, I'm done with you.
bdlugz - February 11, 2012
Actually, he's right.
Your tone and attitude is NOT appreciated — particularly by me, and particularly on ticket issues.
Clean up your act.
Al Yellon - February 12, 2012
ohhhhhhh SNAP
SandalsNoPants - February 13, 2012
We're not even talking tickets and you still bring it up.
Pretty funny. I really struck a nerve, eh?
bluemagic9 - February 14, 2012
Over, and over, and over.
That is why so many are tired of your opinion on the tickets.
jpeters407 - February 14, 2012
Amateurs and intrigue
That’s what you’re going on as evidence the ship is righted? Fine with me….but this ship needs way more than what it currently has to even signal anything but a change in philosophy at this point.
When Rizzo hits in the majors then he’s part of the puzzle. Until he does, and I believe he will end up falling short of difference maker and settle in as better than average….he’s Bryan LaHair just a little younger. “Cost-controlled” might be a buzzword….but the reality is, Chris Volstad isn’t very good. He hasn’t been very good for a pretty long time. That deal was only to shed deadwood…not find a diamond in the rough because Volstad isn’t one. Same goes for Travis Wood….guys like him should grow on trees in your farm system not be someone sought out as part of the solution.
“Very interesting 2B”….come on, you don’t seriously expect Torreyes to really be Dustin Pedroia do you? If he ends up being Jose Altuve the organization will do cart wheels…but something tells me that isn’t happening any time soon. The rest of those transactions are stop-gap filler types…nothing more, nothing less.
Net result….small moves have been made….nothing Earth-shattering and nothing to proclaim this as the great resurgence in Cubs baseball. There are just as many questions with the newcomers as there were with some of the old. Some cost savings has been achieved and some culling of the herd has been necessitated….but there is so much work left to be done that it doesn’t make sense signaling anything done this offseason as the start of something good.
So yes, blind optimism is the flavor of the day right now which is to be expected. I do believe the organization is in better hands and recognize the level of interest some of you are trying to will into this rebuilding process. But if you step aside and see the small deals for what they really have been you will also recognize that there is a pretty good likelihood that this is going to take a while. Quite a long while and much longer than some of you are hoping for. Quite frankly, this entire organization remains a pretty big mess.
krummy12 - February 10, 2012
I'm all for a "show me" attitude, but you really do take it to the next level
It’s been FOUR months. Their is literally nothing in the world they could’ve done to right the mess left from the last few years. I’m using the last four months that we are finally on what appears to be the right track. A change in philosophy is exactly what this organization needed, I don’t see why you’re trying to diminish it.
Travis wood was on pace for over a 4.5 WAR season as a rookie in 2010 if he started 35 games. He had a bad 2011, but has quite a bit of potential. Volstad also had pretty solid peripherals to go with a bad ERA in 2011. To claim these guys aren’t worth anything is ridiculous. We traded a pitcher as bad as Volstad making 18 million for 3 years of similar pitching that at least has upside. We traded 1 year of a set up guy for 5 years of a pitcher that has 3.3 career WAR in 35 career starts, plus 2 other pieces that can contribute at the majors (one as early as this year).
What a weird comment… I don’t remember EVER mentioning Pedroia, nor claiming anything about that being his upside. As for Altuve and doing cartwheels? Yes, if he ends up being a major leaguer at 22 years old with a career 148 wRC+ in the minors, I’d do cartwheels.
The rest of your post is your typical pessimism attempting to belittle the moves and the direction as a whole. I really can’t imagine what it feels like to feel what you do while still considering yourself a Cubs fan. I’d have quit a long, long time ago.
bdlugz - February 10, 2012
Seconded.
Al Yellon - February 10, 2012
Nobody is claiming that the ship is righted.
But that it is going in the right direction. Also where is this blind optimism? People are projecting win totals in the 70’s not a pennant winner. The moves have made the organization better in the long term without a doubt, short term remains to be seen. As long as they improve I will be happy.
jpeters407 - February 10, 2012
"I wish you would step back from that ledge my friend"
Mitchener - February 10, 2012
expecting earthshattering moves is pretty absurd
I don’t recall anyomne saying or implying the ship has been righted,but there is plenty of evidence it is in the process of being righted. The organization is clearly undergoing a major make-over, the new direction is much better than the old one, but I guess that is not good enough for some fans.
lookingdeadred - February 11, 2012
I am also optimistic about the changes, but 2012 is going to be tough
Lost Pena and Ramirez on offense, Marshall from the pen. 3 guys in the Opening Day lineup are either coming off injury years or have little track record (Stewart, DeJesus, LaHair). LF will be the 385-year old wreckage that used by be Alfonso Soriano. The starting rotation is Garza, Maholm and a bunch of question marks (I include Dempster because he only pitched well for 6-8 weeks in 2011). And if they have a lead in the 9th, they call in Mr. Wild Card.
I think the team can be better at the end of the year than the beginning if Jackson and Rizzo gel, but the start of the year could be u-g-l-y.
ClarkFan - February 10, 2012
Don't disagree at all... for once I see the Cubs with a big picture mentality
And I can actually handle a crappy season in 2012, because it’s just the means to an end. Once you realize that nothing they did this offseason would have made this team competitive, it’s easier to handle.
bdlugz - February 10, 2012
As I said in another thread, Hendry left the cupboard absolutely bare
An aging, overpaid MLB roster, not much in the minor league system other than the 2011 draft picks. Short of committing outright theft or giving away stupid money/years, there wasn’t much in store for 2012. I think Epstein/Hoyer did a good job in accumulating players who can either be useful in Chicago in the future or could be chips in a trade when teams like the Padres or Royals can’t afford a good player any more.
ClarkFan - February 11, 2012
To be fair, the minor league system had SOME interesting guys in it...
They all just happen to be in A ball or rookie ball minus a couple. There is a lot of potential for movement in this system, including some guys from the 2009 and 2010 draft classes, not just 2011.
bdlugz - February 11, 2012
not absolutely by any shot, but he left a lot of room for improvement
lookingdeadred - February 11, 2012
Yep, we are putting ourselves in the situation to:
1) Keep our young talent such as Rizzo, Castro, since we will now be able to pay them (this is why teams like the Pirates and Royals have not been able to win) when the bad contacts are off the books.
2) Raid other teams of their talent that they cannot afford at the trade deadline or just wait until they are free agents, and once there is more minor league depth we can make even better deals.
3) Have long term sustained success with a steady flow of high ceiling Cub produced players supplemented with appropriate free agent signings, instead of trying to build a team with minimal minor league talent and too many free agent signings.
Yep, Theo does not know what he is doing.
jpeters407 - February 11, 2012
This is the NL Central
Winning less than 70 games is not easy to do unless you’re PIT. The last Cubs team to win less than 70 games was in 2006 and even they had a Pythagorean Win-Loss of 70-92. You have relatively weakened teams in STL and MIL. And a HOU team that is growing up with a new owner and a soon-to-be new league.
I think most people here are optimistic in 2012 for the way we expect the Cubs to play and the change in direction from the front office and new manager. I do not think most people here are counting on an immediate and amazing change in the 2012 win-loss record. I think people are a better approach to the game and improvement in the minor league players.
RiskyBusiness - February 10, 2012
I predict the Cubs win 60 games this year.
katie casey - February 10, 2012
I cannot imagine them losing 102 games.
They’re bad, but not that bad.
bdlugz - February 10, 2012
I should say... if they trade Garza I hold the right to revise that statement.
bdlugz - February 10, 2012
I think the key to her words are that they will win 60 games.
Winning 97 games is still winning 60 games. :D
ubercubsfan - February 10, 2012
Exactly.
I was going way out on a limb with that prediction.
katie casey - February 10, 2012
you'd appreciate this little-known fact then...
As bad as the Cubs were last year, did you know that they won every single game in which they were ahead after the 9th inning? Every single one. So, we got that going for us at least…
ballhawk - February 10, 2012
Impressive...
I hear it’s the record in games in which they were losing after the 9th inning that really separates the winners from the losers.
bdlugz - February 10, 2012
Yeah, I don't think you need to go...
…quite this negative. The OP’s 78 wins is a bit high for me, too, but 70-75 seems like a safe range in which to place one’s expectations.
daver - February 10, 2012
I was just being silly. Uber got it right.
I was referring to the old saying about winning 60 and losing 60 no matter how good or bad a team is.
That being said, although I’m usually one of the bigger optimists around here, 78 seems high to me as well.
Truth be told, I’m even thinking lower than most of you this year. I’d put them at 65-70 wins tops.
katie casey - February 10, 2012
Too optimistic for 2012
I agree that this is the start of something good, but it will be a huge, and pleasant, surprise to me if the Cubs win 78 games in 2012. This is a team that won 71 last year and subtracted two of its three best position players, Ramirez and Pena. Their projected starting lineup for 2012 includes one better-than-average player (Castro) and one who is potentially better than average (Soto). They have one pitcher, Garza, who is better than a middle of the order starter, and he could be traded at any time. Their bullpen is nothing special. They are definitely on the right track, unloading high-priced veterans for prospects and younger players. However, I strongly believe that it’s going to get worse before it gets better. I predict something closer to 68 wins for 2012.
Deren Kellogg - February 10, 2012
PECOTA says 72 wins
I think if they trade Garza, they definitely end up somewhere under that number. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dempster ends up getting moved for some small pieces, as well. Hoyer has clearly shown that he’s open to trading anyone if the return is what he wants.
subtle - February 10, 2012
What I'm looking for this season are things like...
…honest, consistent effort, an emphasis on fundamentals and, most of all, accountability. Based on what I’ve heard and observed so far from Theo, Sveum, etc., I have no reason to believe that any of these goals is out of reac and, yes, that gets me excited.
So let’s not get too focused on how many wins this team is going to get since those kind of meaningless predictions almost always lead to disappointment.
Yes, we have a long way to go. Theo’s moves this off season are a pretty strong indication that he doesn’t believe we’re anywhere close to competing yet but, after last season’s debacle…my all-time worst season in my 40+ seasons as a Cub fan, just teh fact that they now ave a plan will be like a breath of fresh air. I, for one, am getting excited.
bluekoolaide - February 10, 2012
Sounds good in theory.....
….but just which players on this current roster do you believe are going to all of a sudden display what you’ve termed as “honest, consistent effort, an emphasis on fundamentals”? I’ll tell you this, if the guys on the current roster havent already exhibited those qualities, they sure aren’t going to exhibit them all of a sudden in 2012 no matter who is the manager.
Sure, if some of those guys don’t display effort and ability, they may be sent elsewhere before season’s end, but more important that trying to squeeze blood out of a turnip, this organization needs better players, plain and simple. There are only a handful of parts on this current club that might be around for a reversal of fortune. Perhaps the effort and accountability expectations for them will be higher. But for the rest of the rank and file veterans still hanging onto roster spots come April, I don’t think you can realistically expect anything more from them than what they’ve already shown.
I guess in a nutshell, you shouldn’t be surprised if this team out-hustles or out-works anyone else this year. It just isn’t going to happen.
krummy12 - February 10, 2012
Correction
should read, “You should be surprised….”
krummy12 - February 10, 2012
Boy is your name........
fitting for you.
jballgame - February 10, 2012
Glad to be able to blue this one up
lookingdeadred - February 11, 2012
And the Fan of the Year is (drum roll)
…not you.
Tat14 - February 10, 2012
Got it Krummy...
.Sveum won’t be any better than Quade…all we’re hearing is just bullshit lip service. That’s about it, right?
Btw-who are all of these veterans who won’t buy into being accountable? I can think of one guy, Soriano, who even comes close to this criteria. In fact, we actually have a very yound squad who WILL be expected to perform in a certain way.
I get that some fans are more comfortable being negative. I’ve been pretty negative myself over the last few years but I don’t enjoy it. People like you seem to almost revel in being critical and that’s something I will never understand. It almost makes being a sports fan seem painful.
bluekoolaide - February 10, 2012
Agreed. In the end, being a sports fan is supposed to be fun. It’s less fun when your team is losing, true, but krummy takes negativity to new heights.
Al Yellon - February 10, 2012
...and new lows, all at the same time.
ballhawk - February 10, 2012
Ain't no mountain high enough, ain't no valley low enough...
Emelie - February 12, 2012
78 may be a little high, but what the heck, I hope to catch a little lightning
and go .500. If we are that close at 78 maybe we could pass the Pirates. If I were to bet, I think 72 is about right but it does not take a lot to turn things around in 4-5 games. I can hope can’t I?
mrcubsfan - February 10, 2012
64 - 98...(if everyone stays healthy)
…it’ll be over rather quickly. There will be no reason for “what ifs”. Painless…no suffering…no tense moments…the swiftness of a guillotine.
Remember though…minor league teams need lovin’, too.
Easy Ed - February 10, 2012
Why do you think...
…this year’s version of the team is that much worse than last year’s?
daver - February 10, 2012
Well, that's only seven games worse than last year.
And we did take away quite a bit of offense with ARAM and Pena.
I don’t think that record is out of the question
Nunyabidness - February 11, 2012
Aram and Pena combined were worth a combined 5.9 wins...
You’d have to assume regression elsewhere and absolutely no value from Stewart or LaHair/Rizzo in order for that to happen. Even if Stewart has worse offensive value than Ramirez, he’ll have much better defensive value. Considering the pitching depth we have, and knowing we wont need to start RoLo or Russell unless something unthinkable (4 starters going down?) happens, I think we can at least put up the same number of wins as last year.
bdlugz - February 11, 2012
I think the most overlooked upgrade is right
Fukudome+Colvin were worth -1.1 War. (UZR was a little unfair).
If Dejesus plays even like he did when he was hurt while playing at a pitchers ball park then he add 3 wins. If he takes advantage of wrigley favoring lefties and stays healthy then he might be a 4 win upgrade.
Mitchener - February 11, 2012
Not to mention how many wins the 3-5 starters are worth.
2011 Dempster, Garza, Zambrano, (Coleman, Lopez, Davis, Russell, Ortiz)
2012 Garza, Dempster, Maholm, (Volstad, Wood, Wells)
We may not score as many runs, but we won’t give up nearly as many either, and we will be in more games, too. Here is the runs allowed by inning from last season.
110, 73, 82, 97, 101, 77, 63, 84, 57
110 1st inning runs means we were constantly playing from behind.
I would also love to see what our bullpen’s ERA was when we were ahead as opposed to when we were behind.
jpeters407 - February 11, 2012
I don't have those numbers
… but these are interesting.
The Cubs were ahead at the end of the first inning 32 times last year, behind 43 times. That pretty much proves your point.
Even more important, though, is the team record when leading going into the 9th inning: 58-7.
That’s bad. Teams should not lose 11% of the games they lead going into the ninth.
By comparison, here are some other 2011 team records when leading going into the ninth inning:
D’backs 84-0
Tigers 83-0
Phillies 87-3
Yankees 91-4
You see the problem here, I trust.
Al Yellon - February 12, 2012
Yes I do.
And if the Cubs keep that ninth inning lead in two consecutive games against the Cardinals, they don’t even make the playoffs, much less win the World Series. I think the starters will perform much better this year, nothing flashy but they will keep us in more games.
jpeters407 - February 12, 2012
Jeeze, I am glad Pujols is gone.
That pitch he hit off of shark was such a good pitch and it was like 4 inches off the ground and he crushed it.
Mitchener - February 12, 2012
It seemed like Wells and Dempster always struggled in the 1st inning
Also do you have the numbers on errors for each inning?
Mitchener - February 12, 2012
The tough thing about picking them to go .500
For a number of the guys that will be playing for the Cubs in the first half of the season, if they really do catch “lightning in a bottle,” they may be gone.
I’d guess that if any of Byrd, DeJesus, Soriano, LaHair, Stewart, Soto, Dempster, Marmol, Volstad, Garza, Maholm, or Randy Wells (at least) were putting up the kind of numbers that kept the Cubs above .500, they’d be attractive enough to real contenders that they’d be dealt by the deadline.
If the only guys left from the Opening Day roster are the ones who weren’t good enough to get traded, it doesn’t bode very well for the second half of the season.
CJK - February 10, 2012
This is my perspective
The current Cubs could well break even at 81 wins but if they’re doing that well early, chances are they’ll deal at least a couple players mid-season. So the OP estimate seems about right to me too.
cubzfan - February 10, 2012
I expect
to see new faces that will provide some excitement along with much despair. I expect to see younger players that will run out each ball that is hit, run hard every chance they get and play with some passion.
I expect to see fewer wins than loses, but I also expect to see players smart enough to learn from their mistakes and improve not only for future seasons, but this season as well.
I expect to see a manager that will actually have a handle on the game and make solid smart baseball decisions. I expect to see an improved defense and improved pitching. I expect to see Jim Belsuhi sing the 7th inning stretch. Well I hope not.
wild bill - February 10, 2012
78 seems reasonable to me, barring injuries.
Not losing two fifths of your starting rotation a week into the season probably would be a good thing. So would not running out James Russell or Doug Davis every fifth game, and replacing them with actual major league starters.
Of course, the real key will be if the new additions in the field can drive in runs at a better clip than the pathetic rate of the 2011 Cubs. If they can, they should easily pick up a few wins over last year, since Milwaukee and St. Louis both took a heavy offensive hit.
NobodySpecial - February 10, 2012
95-67.
shoemile - February 10, 2012
You might want to see a Doctor for that
RiskyBusiness - February 10, 2012
us or z'em?
ballhawk - February 10, 2012
I know what this is
Torreyes’ weight – Volgelbach’s belt size.
KO Stradivarius - February 10, 2012 via mobile
=28
katie casey - February 10, 2012
You're talking about the Marlins, aren't you?
daver - February 10, 2012
Marlins will win 117 games.
shoemile - February 10, 2012
negative nancy
i’m betting 138 in honor big z
jesus christos - February 10, 2012
*honor of
jesus christos - February 10, 2012
Jeez, try and be realistic, man.
shoemile - February 10, 2012
117 is understating the talent that is on their roster
jesus christos - February 10, 2012
Man, even I'm not that optimistic.
Al Yellon - February 10, 2012
Stop talking about the Marlins.
santoswoodenlegs - February 10, 2012
Strike that, reverse it.
bluemagic9 - February 17, 2012
Welcome back Millsy
still mad about last year?
Tat14 - February 10, 2012
My heart says this team will win 75-80 games
Then my brain thinks of what the 3-4-5 is going to be in this line-up? It will be a miracle if they win 70!
Notsnud - February 10, 2012
I have no idea how many
games we will win, I’m just excited that players will be held accountable, expected to run hard to first base, etc.
sue369 - February 10, 2012
Sue, I respectfully laugh at that comment...
I have heard that crap for each new manager and it has been the same exact story.
Players loafed under: Quade, Piniella, Baker, etc. etc.
Sveum didn’t seem very successful in stopping the antics of that jackass Nyjer Morgan, granted I know he wasn’t the manager, but still. He didn’t seem to have a problem with the beast mode or whatever the heck that nonsense was.
cubfanwill - February 10, 2012
As soon as Soriano admires a blast of the wall
and gets thrown out at second, then will no the answer to accountability.
Notsnud - February 10, 2012
Was "beast mode" when players were lazy and didn't run out ground balls...
or threw the ball to the wrong base/miss the cuttoff…or get picked off base/TOOTBLAN? Because I don’t remember “beast mode” being something like that.
santoswoodenlegs - February 10, 2012
no, that was "least mode"
ballhawk - February 10, 2012
We think the Cubs are lazy because we watch every game, and we are critical
of how they play. Every team makes mistakes, fails to run out ground balls, and admires warning track fly balls. I just hope when we do the player finds a comfy seat on the bench for a game or two.
jpeters407 - February 10, 2012
I seriously appreciate the sentiment.
That said… Nyjer Morgan has never had a hustling problem.
And frankly, I am not going to knock him for outlandishly ragging on the Cardinals. The Cards gave as good as they got.
D98 - February 10, 2012
i see 78 as the tops if everything goes well ....
but i would probably bet on 68 to 72 wins .
walterj - February 10, 2012
However many we win...I will cheer and be happy.
However many we lose…I will curse and be sad.
santoswoodenlegs - February 10, 2012
I am going to post a poll on Cubs 2012 W/L on the right sidebar.
Go and vote.
Al Yellon - February 10, 2012
Real early but
it appears that the power of positive thinking will not show up strong.
We have might thy enemy Cubs Fan, and he is us.
Tat14 - February 10, 2012
*met
(damn, nothin’ worse than a witty comment with grammatical error)
Tat14 - February 10, 2012
I'm hoping the team can at least match 71 wins
Ideally i hope Sveum can get 75-78 wins out of this team. Really I hope for a better April. I don’t want to see Dempster posting a 9 ERA in april and terrible starters like Russel.
Mitchener - February 10, 2012
I think they win more
I believe they were over .500 last year in games NOT started by the likes of Coleman, D Davis, Russel and a couple other bums they rolled out onto the mound last year. This years starting pitching while certainly unspectacular should be improved quite a bit. Losing Ram’s offense will be tough but I don’t think Pena’s numbers will be that hard to replace. Plus……I don’t think Theo/Jed are done yet. I think .500 is possible
plenz - February 11, 2012
Truth is, nothing is expected from these guys, and I love it.
It will be nice to watch with a purpose. With Hendry, he just threw guys together on the field. He had no direction. Now that Theo has a direction he’s going in, it will be nice to watch, knowing that with every at bat Anthony Rizzo or Brett Jackson takes, the future is just getting better.
wrigleyrocker12 - February 11, 2012
How could any fan say they love not expecting anything from their favorite team?!
Yeah, maybe.. if you’re watching in Iowa.
How about the people who pay top dollar to watch this team in Chicago every year?
bluemagic9 - February 11, 2012
you get to watch soriano
that’s entertainment in a pathetic way, right?
jesus christos - February 11, 2012
The best part is being along for the ride!
If it was easy there would not be as much reward when the success comes.
jpeters407 - February 11, 2012
You have to remember
The fans who post here aren’t in the majority of the Cubs fan base.
I am making no predictions. We’ll see what happens.
Not Bruce Froemming - February 15, 2012
Hmm, complement or a backhanded slap?
Exactly what is the majority of the fan base and why are we not included?
jpeters407 - February 15, 2012
People here
are a lot more intense about the Cubs.
Not Bruce Froemming - February 16, 2012
NO I'M NOT!!!
TAKE IT BACK!!!
daver - February 16, 2012
Ok, I can accept that.
More informed, better looking, richer, hotter spouses, better baseball players in their day, any of those would have been acceptable as well.
jpeters407 - February 17, 2012
'sall true.
daver - February 17, 2012
Wins in 2012...
…will be meaningless to me. I just want them to keep rebuilding from the ground up, so future consistent success is much more likely.
MPH73 - February 13, 2012
Lack of direction
Signing low-rent cast-off, while letting proven producers walk. Been a fan since the 50’s. It’s hard to watch this. They don’t care about us. They make money. We continue to suffer.
elmer dalrumple - February 15, 2012
I'm going to Rec this for two reasons:
1) This is a pithy, well-stated rant. Not that I necessarily agree, but it has a certain Hemingway-esque charm.
2) Your user name is AWESOME (and I don’t even know to whom it refers).
daver - February 15, 2012
...
jesus christos - February 15, 2012
So ...
you would rather they hang onto fading overpriced veterans and continue limping along hoping to compete occasionally instead of rebuilding the organization from rookie ball up to the big club and producing a team that will compete every season? Really?
lookingdeadred - February 16, 2012
Some feel that way, absolutely.
shoemile - February 16, 2012
I know I don't.
Al Yellon - February 16, 2012
Anymore.
shoemile - February 17, 2012
how sad.
lookingdeadred - February 17, 2012
Well, there used to be a hell of a lot more who felt that way.
shoemile - February 17, 2012
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