Given his age, he is seven years younger than Cespedes and will come at a much cheaper price. He fits in much better with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer’s future plans, as he is likely still a couple years away from having an impact in the majors.
If the Cubs could get him at around the price they paid for Gerardo Concepcion, I’m all for it.
for a 25 year old guy who has played against competition only slightly better. I can understand the argument you laid out in this post. Where it doesn’t make sense is factoring your position on Darvish.
Compared to over 200 Cuban defectors who have signed contracts in that time span.
Without going up and down the list. I’d say that the Japanese players have done pretty well.
Ichiro: ROY, MVP,
Kazuhiro Sasaki: ROY
Hideki Matsui, 2009: World Series MVP
Hideo Nomo: ROY and 2 No-Hitters
Shigetoshi Hasegawa: All-Star in 2003
Hideki Okajima: All-Star in 2007
Takashi Saito: All-Star in 2007
Kosuke Fukudome: All-Star in 2008
Dice K: Started and won a World Series Game
So Taguchi: Played in 3 World Series and has 2 Rings
There has been a lot of ballot stuffing going on for Japanese players.
And I think that just throwing numbers out there is more than a bit misleading. The political conditions of both countries are not comparable. I’m sure that many of those defectors from Cuba were good baseball players that did what ever they could to get the heck off that island. They weren’t, necessarily, real major league possibilities.
i would not use that as a way to say who is or isnt good, we have seen many sub par players get voted in by fans over the years, and if 1 good season is all it takes for them to be considered good based on your above terms, then Jerome Walton should be on the list of Cub greats as well for his ROY
i never defended the Cubans coming over or comparing them
and i said more have been meh from Japan, which 70% is more. I was not arguing for or against the Cubans or Japanese as much as just making an observation in reply to Al. Didnt that i had to actually spell that out any more than I did in my initial reply to him above.
If “slightly” is causing an issue with you, then look past it. However, Japanese baseball is still a far way away from the level played at MLB. It’s not even as good as AAA baseball.
Because it’s only looking at nationality. However, not all of those Cuban players defected from Cuba after playing in the Cuban league. Some of them were either born in the States (Miami), or came to the states as young children, and never played in the Cuban league… playing High School ball in Miami, and even going to college as well, typically at Miami.
I don't think population has an impact on this at all.
Both countries have been playing baseball since the late 1800’s.
The real impact is the structuring of contracts in the Nippon league, and the government differences between Japan and Cuba.
The Japanese league is structured in a way that makes is cost prohibitive for MLB teams to acquire their stars… with the whole “posting” system to bid for the right to sign players in a silent auction. Also, there’s not a huge incentive for players in Japan to leave and go to the states. They live a good life there, and get paid well. The highest paid player in the Nippon league is Michihiro Ogasawara ($5 mi/year).
Now, compare that to Cuba. It’s a socialist state, run by a Communist party. People try to flee the country every month on boats and rafts to get to Miami (90 miles away). Baseball players don’t get payed very well, and there is a major, major incentive for them to defect their country and go to America… especially for million dollar contracts.
Very few defectors would get million dollar contracts
Many, as I noted above, aren’t “real MLB prospects”. Many are just good players doing whatever they can to get off the island. Those types of players, if Japanese, would most likely stay in Japan and have a good life.
However in more recent times, teenage prospects from Cuba are defecting, and the best of them are signing million dollar contracts. You can look at the Cubs off-season to see the impact of this. Then, there are mid-level prospects like Rubi Silva… who the Cubs signed for $1.5 mil.
The money is there now, with the landscape of baseball changing. However, it wasn’t like that in the ‘90s and early 2000’s, and I’m sure there were many many players who defected and signed as a means to get the hell out of Cuba.
But that’s the major difference between Japan and Cuba. Players in Japan live a good life. Players in Cuba… not so much.
'Darvish or not' is not comparable to 'Cespedes vs. Soler'
If the Cubs had won the posting and signed Darvish it would have signaled – “We’re taking a shot to win in the next 2-4 years”. By not having a larger posting bid for Darvish and apparently not a strong interest in Fielder, the Cubs have signaled “We’re building up the organization to then build up the team.”
Cespedes probably does not fit into a “We’re building up the organization to then build up the team.” direction. He’s is either ready now or nearly ready. But either way he is expensive for an organization in a building mode.
I think I agree with your sentiment here in general
Except that I do think that Cespedas would be good for a building team. I’m not minimizing $40 – $45M, but it’s not as if an organization with the revenues of the Cubs couldn’t handle that if the investment were to go bad. If the investment in Darvish were to go back the Cubs would be really hurt by that.
The Cubs lack of signing Darvish and Fielder does say what you say it says, but the fact is that due to the risk involved, the Cubs not competing at those levels is completely understandable.
if the Cubs were “a pitcher away”, then I think taking the risk on Darvish would make sense. It doesn’t now. I wanted the Cubs to sign Fielder, but without the safety of the DH, I think 9 years was much too long. Again, that didn’t make sense.
And it was pretty well known Soler would pass the 15.5 million signed by Leonys Martin
I not only believe Soler is a better prospect than Martin, it’s also the last year of free spending on IFA and there will be teams looking to push prices up. I expected a deal in the 20-23 million range, but 27 doesn’t shock or scare me.
Based on the small amount I actually know about the two, it sounds like it makes more sense for Cespedes to go to a fringe contender, and for Soler to go to a rebuilder.
I am down for that. Last year to spend heavily on international players.
I say we go for both. Cespedes will be a nice player to pick up in the short term and generate some buzz, while still being fairly young. Soler will be good in the long term.
All Cespedes has to do is be Marlon Byrd with more power to be worth a 7 mil/year contract, and his upside is a bonafide all-star. Soler would give us a third position player who’s a top 50 prospect and a superstar potential RF.
I definitely believe this would be enough to snag Soler, and its also a figure I’m comfortable with – especially if they pass on Cespedes. I’ve seen Soler compared to guys like Bubba Starling & Justin Upton for potential, and so I would absolutely be excited to see him added to the core of young talent we’re building.
If he may be considered a single digit draft pick, but he could be getting paid as 2-3 single digit draft picks. I understand that he is a free agent, but I would not expect that kind of money unless he was very close to MLB.
There are LOTS of 19 year old international free agents. They too are free to negotiate with anyone, yet routinely top out at less than $5 million. (According to one site, whose accuracy I can’t vouch for, last year you had a single player sign for $5 million, two others for around $3.5 million, and the rest south of that: http://www.85percentsports.com/2011/07/07/mlb-international-free-agent-signings/)
So, while I get it that Soler is the only player available at the moment and has some leverage, is he really such a special talent that you’d guarantee him more than 5 x as much as the absolute best IFA from last year?
We’ll see. I think the numbers getting tossed out probably originate with agents trying to create a sense of inevitability. Everyone was credulous about the 6 year, $60 million estimate for Cespedes, yet he came in a lot lower than that. Best guess is the same thing happens for Soler.
No matter how hard you try, it’s just not the same thing – especially with guys from Cuba where scouting is non-existent. The fact is we’re talking about a single digit pick (valued from about 1.5 million to 8 million when they have no negotiating rights), who is open to negotiate with every single team.
As for value against other IFAs, I think that Soler is significantly more impressive than fellow Cuban Leonys Martin, who received 15.5 million from Texas. I assumed Soler would be around 20-23 million, but as I said before the 27 doesn’t shock me. The fact that this is the last year there is free spending on IFAs, there are a lot more teams that go prospect heavy trying to sink their teeth into one last push. Example would be the A’s overpaying for Cespedes.
I didn't compare him to Rule 4 draftees, so not sure where the first paragraph comes from.
As for the IFAs, which is the only thing I referred to in my own comment, the Martin comparison is pretty debatable. You may think Soler has a much higher ceiling, and maybe you’re right, but he’s 4 years younger (19, not 23 as Martin was when he signed) and has a much smaller track record both within Cuba and internationally. Among the things you don’t know about Soler is how he’ll develop physically between now and the time when he’d be expected to reach the big leagues. The Rangers didnt have to ask that question about Martin.
That’s why the apt comparison really is to the other teenage prospects teams sign out of the DR, Venezuala, etc., each and every year. These are kids with raw talent, and teams hope not only that they can teach them to harnass that talent, but that they’ll develop into the kind of adult athletes that can compete at the MLB level. They call these players “prospects” for a reason. They have a price, and it’s not $10 million let alone $25 million.
That isn’t to say someone won’t spend that kind of money on Soler, just that it seems to be wildly overpaying for the chance that Soler becomes a good player when he gets older. Especially when you consider that the very best international prospect next year will likely be had for not much more than $2 million. If you think Soler is 10 times the prospect of whoever that turns out to be, there’s not much else I can say.
He got a $15 million, 5 year major league deal. As you point out about Cespdes, any of these deals have to make sense from the assumption that for some period of time the player will be in the minors developing. (I don’t agree with your assessment of how long that period should be for Cespedes, but whatever, fodder for a different thread).
How long do you really think the Rangers thought Martin could be in the minor leagues and still have that deal be a success? Not long. And of course, they called him up last September.
Making that comparison against Soler, are you suggesting he’ll be anywhere close to the major leagues in 2012? I haven’t seen anything suggesting that possibility, and most people seem to think he’ll need a couple of years at least in the minors. So you’re not talking about paying $15 million for 4 likely major league seasons, as the Rangers were. You’re talking about paying $27 million for 3 or 4 major league seasons, if you’re lucky.
It might be 5 million signing bonus with the other 22 million paid out over his first 6 seasons in the pros.
We have no idea how this will be constructed, and if he’d be getting paid big bucks to be in the minor leagues for 4 years (as I don’t think he’s ready until 2015 at the earliest). If it requires a major league contract where he’s a FA after 6 years regardless of what happens, I agree it’s a bad deal.
The thing about saying Cespedes came in lower than 6/60 is, with his AAV he really didnt.
The A’s may very well have been better off going 6 years at a $9 million AAV, because at least then they will get production for a longer period of time. I believe it will be at least a year before Cespedes can stick in the majors, and that’s a lot of money to spend, and 25% of the contract to eat before he offers anything to your club.
How is a $36 million guaranteed committment to an unproven player the same or nearly the same thing as a $60 million commitment?
I’m sure Billy Beane will be quite happy if the biggest problem with his Cespedes contract is that it isn’t long enough, and he needs to start paying fair market price beginning in 2016. On the other hand, if he fails, their total spend will be only slightly more than half of what people were predicting Cespedes would get.
I’m sure Billy Beane will be quite happy if the biggest problem with his Cespedes contract is that it isn’t long enough, and he needs to start paying fair market price beginning in 2016.
We’re still talking about the A’s here, right? Market price? Odds of him being on another team by July 2013 look pretty good right about now.
25 or 27.5 is a really really small diff over 6 years (probable length of the contract). And honestly, this is the LAST time big money can be spent on an international player.
At $20 mil or less you probably don’t get him. $27.5 you almost certainly do, and I’m more than ok with that risk – we’re talking less than $4.6/season which is a blip on our payroll.
This, I would be in favor of.
For this reason:
If the Cubs could get him at around the price they paid for Gerardo Concepcion, I’m all for it.
Al Yellon - February 12, 2012
yep, goldstein followed the first tweet with this
jesus christos - February 12, 2012
Can I get a thank you for asking the question?
Cub Style - February 12, 2012
Thank you.
And I hope people see the difference in why I was happy with the Concepcion signing, would be happy with this one, but don’t want Cespedes.
It’s the age of the three players and the money. Well worth signing 19 year old guys with big upside to relatively low dollar contracts.
Don’t feel the Cubs should try to outbid the Marlins on a 26-year-old guy who will cost eight times as much and might not be as good.
Al Yellon - February 12, 2012
Well Soler will cost something
He should top Leonys Martin’s deal with the Rangers last year, which was around $15 million.
Cub Style - February 12, 2012
Yet you are willing to spend 20x as much as Soler
for a 25 year old guy who has played against competition only slightly better. I can understand the argument you laid out in this post. Where it doesn’t make sense is factoring your position on Darvish.
jerry morales rules - February 12, 2012
I disagree with your characterization of Japanese baseball as "slightly" better.
It’s a LOT better.
Al Yellon - February 12, 2012
that may be, and i am not for or against Darvish
but it seems that few have come over from Japan and truly stood out as more than a “meh” player.
Cubbie-Tim - February 12, 2012
Several have become fulltime regulars.
A couple have become stars (Ichiro, Hideki Matsui).
Al Yellon - February 12, 2012
Hideo Nomo won ROY
And threw two no-hitters.
SackMan - February 12, 2012
I forgot to mention Hiroki Kuroda.
Solid MLB starting pitcher.
Al Yellon - February 12, 2012
Kuroda has done very well for a pitcher who came over here at age 33
That’s not exactly the age you wanna start pitching the in Majors.
SackMan - February 12, 2012
So Taguchi has 2 Rings and played in 3 World Seres
SackMan - February 12, 2012
Theriot has 1 as well
WS rings are not a good judge
Cubbie-Tim - February 12, 2012
Robert Horry says Hi
timh815 - February 12, 2012
Adam Morrison has more rings than Derrick Rose or Lebron James
I think he has two actually
Musicdude10 - February 13, 2012
and how many didnt have the smae success?
Cubbie-Tim - February 12, 2012
There have only been 42 of them since 1995
Compared to over 200 Cuban defectors who have signed contracts in that time span.
Without going up and down the list. I’d say that the Japanese players have done pretty well.
Ichiro: ROY, MVP,
Kazuhiro Sasaki: ROY
Hideki Matsui, 2009: World Series MVP
Hideo Nomo: ROY and 2 No-Hitters
Shigetoshi Hasegawa: All-Star in 2003
Hideki Okajima: All-Star in 2007
Takashi Saito: All-Star in 2007
Kosuke Fukudome: All-Star in 2008
Dice K: Started and won a World Series Game
So Taguchi: Played in 3 World Series and has 2 Rings
SackMan - February 12, 2012
Just to point out
There has been a lot of ballot stuffing going on for Japanese players.
And I think that just throwing numbers out there is more than a bit misleading. The political conditions of both countries are not comparable. I’m sure that many of those defectors from Cuba were good baseball players that did what ever they could to get the heck off that island. They weren’t, necessarily, real major league possibilities.
jerry morales rules - February 12, 2012
ASG is such a bs joke
i would not use that as a way to say who is or isnt good, we have seen many sub par players get voted in by fans over the years, and if 1 good season is all it takes for them to be considered good based on your above terms, then Jerome Walton should be on the list of Cub greats as well for his ROY
Cubbie-Tim - February 12, 2012
My list right there is about a 24% success rate for Japanese players
And I’m sure you could include a few others on that list as well.
Now, try going through this list of Cuban defectors… not so hot.
SackMan - February 12, 2012
i never defended the Cubans coming over or comparing them
and i said more have been meh from Japan, which 70% is more. I was not arguing for or against the Cubans or Japanese as much as just making an observation in reply to Al. Didnt that i had to actually spell that out any more than I did in my initial reply to him above.
Cubbie-Tim - February 12, 2012
didnt know that***
Cubbie-Tim - February 12, 2012
I'm not arguing about anything... I'm just providing some 411
SackMan - February 12, 2012
So Taguchi and Kosuke Fukudome are on your "success" chart.
Darkish had better be one hell of a lot better than them.
For that matter, Cespedes had better be, too, if he expects 50mm plus.
D98 - February 12, 2012
Compare the success of Japanese players vs Cuban defectors is difficult on sample size.
There are only 42 Japanese league players to enter MLB since 1995.
There have been over 200 Cuban defectors during that time, and this doesn’t count second generation Cuban players who were born in the states.
SackMan - February 12, 2012
again i never got into the Cuban players
you are taking a very simply reply i made to Al about the Japanese players and changing the argument to something i didn’t say at all.
Cubbie-Tim - February 12, 2012
It's all relative
If “slightly” is causing an issue with you, then look past it. However, Japanese baseball is still a far way away from the level played at MLB. It’s not even as good as AAA baseball.
jerry morales rules - February 12, 2012
Agree to disagree, again.
Al Yellon - February 12, 2012
Yes, agree to disagree
jerry morales rules - February 12, 2012
The Cuban league has been compared to advanced A ball
For most of this off-season, surrounding the topic of Cespedes. And those comparisons are coming from the guys who report on FA signings.
SackMan - February 12, 2012
They are still both a long way from MLB level though Japanese baseball is closer.
jerry morales rules - February 12, 2012
There are more Cubans playing right now
at least according this wikipedia list. I know a lot of these players probably didn’t play in the Cuba league but their is talent coming out of Cuba.
Also Cuba has about a 11 million population and Japan has around 120 million.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_Major_League_Baseball_players_by_nationality
Mitchener - February 12, 2012
That's an inaccurate way to look at it.
Because it’s only looking at nationality. However, not all of those Cuban players defected from Cuba after playing in the Cuban league. Some of them were either born in the States (Miami), or came to the states as young children, and never played in the Cuban league… playing High School ball in Miami, and even going to college as well, typically at Miami.
SackMan - February 12, 2012
But also keep in mind the huge population difference
Mitchener - February 12, 2012
I don't think population has an impact on this at all.
Both countries have been playing baseball since the late 1800’s.
The real impact is the structuring of contracts in the Nippon league, and the government differences between Japan and Cuba.
The Japanese league is structured in a way that makes is cost prohibitive for MLB teams to acquire their stars… with the whole “posting” system to bid for the right to sign players in a silent auction. Also, there’s not a huge incentive for players in Japan to leave and go to the states. They live a good life there, and get paid well. The highest paid player in the Nippon league is Michihiro Ogasawara ($5 mi/year).
Now, compare that to Cuba. It’s a socialist state, run by a Communist party. People try to flee the country every month on boats and rafts to get to Miami (90 miles away). Baseball players don’t get payed very well, and there is a major, major incentive for them to defect their country and go to America… especially for million dollar contracts.
SackMan - February 12, 2012
Very few defectors would get million dollar contracts
Many, as I noted above, aren’t “real MLB prospects”. Many are just good players doing whatever they can to get off the island. Those types of players, if Japanese, would most likely stay in Japan and have a good life.
jerry morales rules - February 12, 2012
Very true....
However in more recent times, teenage prospects from Cuba are defecting, and the best of them are signing million dollar contracts. You can look at the Cubs off-season to see the impact of this. Then, there are mid-level prospects like Rubi Silva… who the Cubs signed for $1.5 mil.
The money is there now, with the landscape of baseball changing. However, it wasn’t like that in the ‘90s and early 2000’s, and I’m sure there were many many players who defected and signed as a means to get the hell out of Cuba.
But that’s the major difference between Japan and Cuba. Players in Japan live a good life. Players in Cuba… not so much.
SackMan - February 12, 2012
'Darvish or not' is not comparable to 'Cespedes vs. Soler'
If the Cubs had won the posting and signed Darvish it would have signaled – “We’re taking a shot to win in the next 2-4 years”. By not having a larger posting bid for Darvish and apparently not a strong interest in Fielder, the Cubs have signaled “We’re building up the organization to then build up the team.”
Cespedes probably does not fit into a “We’re building up the organization to then build up the team.” direction. He’s is either ready now or nearly ready. But either way he is expensive for an organization in a building mode.
RiskyBusiness - February 12, 2012
I think I agree with your sentiment here in general
Except that I do think that Cespedas would be good for a building team. I’m not minimizing $40 – $45M, but it’s not as if an organization with the revenues of the Cubs couldn’t handle that if the investment were to go bad. If the investment in Darvish were to go back the Cubs would be really hurt by that.
The Cubs lack of signing Darvish and Fielder does say what you say it says, but the fact is that due to the risk involved, the Cubs not competing at those levels is completely understandable.
if the Cubs were “a pitcher away”, then I think taking the risk on Darvish would make sense. It doesn’t now. I wanted the Cubs to sign Fielder, but without the safety of the DH, I think 9 years was much too long. Again, that didn’t make sense.
jerry morales rules - February 12, 2012
Cespedes may be available in a couple of years if the Fish sign him anyway
It’s not like that team is being built for the long term. Win or lose, there is going to be a fire sale after Loria finds a
fresh chumpnew owner.ClarkFan - February 12, 2012
Still interested in Soler?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/marlins-in-lead-for-cespedes-cubs-focused-on-soler.html
jerry morales rules - February 12, 2012
That seems like a lot.
Depends on how long the contract is for.
Al Yellon - February 12, 2012
47 years and back loaded?
Cubbie-Tim - February 12, 2012
i can do you one better
jesus christos - February 12, 2012
Can you say woot?
Cub Style - February 12, 2012
jesus "woot woot" christos?
Cubbie-Tim - February 12, 2012
Exactly!
Cub Style - February 12, 2012
It appears Soler is going to get at least 2-3 times what Concepcion got, so are you still “all for it”?
magicblue - February 13, 2012
That depends on the length of the contract.
Al Yellon - February 13, 2012
And it was pretty well known Soler would pass the 15.5 million signed by Leonys Martin
I not only believe Soler is a better prospect than Martin, it’s also the last year of free spending on IFA and there will be teams looking to push prices up. I expected a deal in the 20-23 million range, but 27 doesn’t shock or scare me.
bdlugz - February 13, 2012
I think it's pretty universially accepted that Soler is a better prospect than Martin was at the same age
RynoRooter - February 13, 2012
I sure hope KG is correct
AzCubfan24 - February 12, 2012
the big ticket???
Geo4MVP - February 13, 2012
I think this makes more sense for the Cubs. THe interesting thing for me will be if he gets a ml deal so he would get put on the 40 man roster.
nkniacc13 - February 12, 2012
Good
Based on the small amount I actually know about the two, it sounds like it makes more sense for Cespedes to go to a fringe contender, and for Soler to go to a rebuilder.
wrigleyrocker12 - February 12, 2012
how does one
Step up the pursuit? Can’t do much more than say you are interested right? Doesn’t even have his residency yet..
RIP Slim - February 12, 2012 via mobile
I think the Cubs overall recent activity in signing Cuban players is helping them in this case.
SackMan - February 12, 2012
Wave large bills at his probable agent.....
ClarkFan - February 12, 2012
Hell sign em both.
Soler, Rizzo, Jackson, Cespedes and Castro is a hell of a core, even if one or two don’t live up to their hype. Baez and others may not be far behind.
Dcr18 - February 12, 2012
I am down for that. Last year to spend heavily on international players.
I say we go for both. Cespedes will be a nice player to pick up in the short term and generate some buzz, while still being fairly young. Soler will be good in the long term.
Mitchener - February 12, 2012
Agreed.
All Cespedes has to do is be Marlon Byrd with more power to be worth a 7 mil/year contract, and his upside is a bonafide all-star. Soler would give us a third position player who’s a top 50 prospect and a superstar potential RF.
Dcr18 - February 12, 2012
Much better use of $ in my book. I share the same opinion as Al on this one.
SackMan - February 12, 2012
Off topic..
but is the first full squad workout on the 24th or 25th? Ive seen both dates listed. Thanks
AzCubfan24 - February 12, 2012
First $ Figure I've Seen:
“The Cubs are believed to be ready to present $27.5 million (the number of years is not known) to Soler, once they can begin negotiations.”
Source: http://joefrisaro.mlblogs.com/
I definitely believe this would be enough to snag Soler, and its also a figure I’m comfortable with – especially if they pass on Cespedes. I’ve seen Soler compared to guys like Bubba Starling & Justin Upton for potential, and so I would absolutely be excited to see him added to the core of young talent we’re building.
CubbyBlues - February 12, 2012
that's a lot of chedda
do eet
jesus christos - February 12, 2012
It must be true because he has the new Marlins logo on that page
And the new Marlins logo would never lie.
RiskyBusiness - February 12, 2012
If we can sign them both I'm for it.
If we can sign one I’d prefer Soler.. This is shaping up to being a really interesting year. Guess that’s why we brought TheoJed in right?
LongLiveHarryCaray - February 12, 2012 via mobile
So, if we sign Soler... how far up do we climb in the farm system rankings?
Seeing as one top 10 prospect carries so much weight with the guys who make these rankings.
SackMan - February 12, 2012
A. Quite a bit
B. Should we care this close to spring training?
timh815 - February 12, 2012
Soler likely slots in right around the middle of a top 100 list at this point. 40-60 would be my guess, with the potential to skyrocket up it.
He’d likely be our 3rd best prospect at this point if we signed him. I think with him and Concepcion, we’d move from 20 to around 13-14.
bdlugz - February 13, 2012
$27.5M for Soler???
That seems really high.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/marlins-in-lead-for-cespedes-cubs-focused-on-soler.html
jerry morales rules - February 12, 2012
I was thinking the same thing
If he may be considered a single digit draft pick, but he could be getting paid as 2-3 single digit draft picks. I understand that he is a free agent, but I would not expect that kind of money unless he was very close to MLB.
RiskyBusiness - February 12, 2012
This is also the last time this is going to happen.
Cub Style - February 12, 2012
Yes, because the Apocalypse is coming
We’ll never see how these draft rules aplly.
Must pack water and canned food now.
RiskyBusiness - February 13, 2012
I was thinking CBA. Totally forgot about 2012.
Must get MRE’s and a nuclear bunker!
Cub Style - February 13, 2012
Draft picks also aren't free agents - they can only negotiate with one team.
That is what keeps their price down (and now MLB does that as well).
bdlugz - February 13, 2012
Still, the point remains.
There are LOTS of 19 year old international free agents. They too are free to negotiate with anyone, yet routinely top out at less than $5 million. (According to one site, whose accuracy I can’t vouch for, last year you had a single player sign for $5 million, two others for around $3.5 million, and the rest south of that: http://www.85percentsports.com/2011/07/07/mlb-international-free-agent-signings/)
So, while I get it that Soler is the only player available at the moment and has some leverage, is he really such a special talent that you’d guarantee him more than 5 x as much as the absolute best IFA from last year?
We’ll see. I think the numbers getting tossed out probably originate with agents trying to create a sense of inevitability. Everyone was credulous about the 6 year, $60 million estimate for Cespedes, yet he came in a lot lower than that. Best guess is the same thing happens for Soler.
Orval Overall - February 13, 2012
You can't compare IFAs to Rule 4 draftees.
No matter how hard you try, it’s just not the same thing – especially with guys from Cuba where scouting is non-existent. The fact is we’re talking about a single digit pick (valued from about 1.5 million to 8 million when they have no negotiating rights), who is open to negotiate with every single team.
As for value against other IFAs, I think that Soler is significantly more impressive than fellow Cuban Leonys Martin, who received 15.5 million from Texas. I assumed Soler would be around 20-23 million, but as I said before the 27 doesn’t shock me. The fact that this is the last year there is free spending on IFAs, there are a lot more teams that go prospect heavy trying to sink their teeth into one last push. Example would be the A’s overpaying for Cespedes.
bdlugz - February 13, 2012
I didn't compare him to Rule 4 draftees, so not sure where the first paragraph comes from.
As for the IFAs, which is the only thing I referred to in my own comment, the Martin comparison is pretty debatable. You may think Soler has a much higher ceiling, and maybe you’re right, but he’s 4 years younger (19, not 23 as Martin was when he signed) and has a much smaller track record both within Cuba and internationally. Among the things you don’t know about Soler is how he’ll develop physically between now and the time when he’d be expected to reach the big leagues. The Rangers didnt have to ask that question about Martin.
That’s why the apt comparison really is to the other teenage prospects teams sign out of the DR, Venezuala, etc., each and every year. These are kids with raw talent, and teams hope not only that they can teach them to harnass that talent, but that they’ll develop into the kind of adult athletes that can compete at the MLB level. They call these players “prospects” for a reason. They have a price, and it’s not $10 million let alone $25 million.
That isn’t to say someone won’t spend that kind of money on Soler, just that it seems to be wildly overpaying for the chance that Soler becomes a good player when he gets older. Especially when you consider that the very best international prospect next year will likely be had for not much more than $2 million. If you think Soler is 10 times the prospect of whoever that turns out to be, there’s not much else I can say.
Orval Overall - February 13, 2012
and one other thing about Martin
He got a $15 million, 5 year major league deal. As you point out about Cespdes, any of these deals have to make sense from the assumption that for some period of time the player will be in the minors developing. (I don’t agree with your assessment of how long that period should be for Cespedes, but whatever, fodder for a different thread).
How long do you really think the Rangers thought Martin could be in the minor leagues and still have that deal be a success? Not long. And of course, they called him up last September.
Making that comparison against Soler, are you suggesting he’ll be anywhere close to the major leagues in 2012? I haven’t seen anything suggesting that possibility, and most people seem to think he’ll need a couple of years at least in the minors. So you’re not talking about paying $15 million for 4 likely major league seasons, as the Rangers were. You’re talking about paying $27 million for 3 or 4 major league seasons, if you’re lucky.
Orval Overall - February 13, 2012
You're also assuming this is a major league deal.
It might be 5 million signing bonus with the other 22 million paid out over his first 6 seasons in the pros.
We have no idea how this will be constructed, and if he’d be getting paid big bucks to be in the minor leagues for 4 years (as I don’t think he’s ready until 2015 at the earliest). If it requires a major league contract where he’s a FA after 6 years regardless of what happens, I agree it’s a bad deal.
bdlugz - February 13, 2012
The thing about saying Cespedes came in lower than 6/60 is, with his AAV he really didnt.
The A’s may very well have been better off going 6 years at a $9 million AAV, because at least then they will get production for a longer period of time. I believe it will be at least a year before Cespedes can stick in the majors, and that’s a lot of money to spend, and 25% of the contract to eat before he offers anything to your club.
bdlugz - February 13, 2012
Come again?
How is a $36 million guaranteed committment to an unproven player the same or nearly the same thing as a $60 million commitment?
I’m sure Billy Beane will be quite happy if the biggest problem with his Cespedes contract is that it isn’t long enough, and he needs to start paying fair market price beginning in 2016. On the other hand, if he fails, their total spend will be only slightly more than half of what people were predicting Cespedes would get.
Orval Overall - February 13, 2012
I was referring to the AAV, not the overall $.
We’re still talking about the A’s here, right? Market price? Odds of him being on another team by July 2013 look pretty good right about now.
bdlugz - February 13, 2012
Except
Cespedes and his agent didn’t want a 6 year contract. He wanted 4 or 10. The A’s can’t simply dictate the terms of the deal.
madcow256 - February 13, 2012
Understood...
I’m working with an “in theory,” not with a, “they should have done this.” I realize it takes two sides to make a deal.
bdlugz - February 13, 2012
Soler at 15>>>Cespedes at 30
25 seems high. 27.5, they’d better really like him.
timh815 - February 13, 2012
15 wont happen
25 or 27.5 is a really really small diff over 6 years (probable length of the contract). And honestly, this is the LAST time big money can be spent on an international player.
At $20 mil or less you probably don’t get him. $27.5 you almost certainly do, and I’m more than ok with that risk – we’re talking less than $4.6/season which is a blip on our payroll.
CubbyBlues - February 13, 2012
It's too bad we aren't landing both
But… Cespedes’ performance in Dominican League was abysmal.
Fingers crossed we land Soler – that’s a major Get.
June will be time to draft the best college pitchers we can find. This farm system will be looking better and better.
KO Stradivarius - February 13, 2012 via mobile
BPA
times forty
timh815 - February 13, 2012
WHY HAVE YOU ALL LOST FAITH IN JEDSTEIN???
for shame… :(
digitalbenjamin - February 13, 2012
Whoa
A’s signed Cespedes. Didn’t see that coming.
tomas21 - February 13, 2012
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand
boom goes the dynamite
pb5689 - February 13, 2012
If Billy Beane likes him...
…I really wish we would have got him.
cubswynn - February 13, 2012
Billy Beane
hasn’t made many good decisions in the last 10 years. Brad Pitt on the other hand…
pb5689 - February 13, 2012
Brad Pitt doesnt care about Defense. Just OBP. Does he have an arm? NO! but he gets on base
LongLiveHarryCaray - February 13, 2012
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