Brian Kersey - Getty Images
Starting pitcher Matt Garza of the Chicago Cubs delivers against the Atlanta Braves at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Brian Kersey/Getty Images)
With Cubs pitchers and catchers scheduled for their first workouts at Fitch Park this afternoon, news comes via Gordon Wittenmyer in the Sun-Times that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer might be looking to sign Matt Garza to a long-term deal:
"We focused really hard on getting the one-year number done a few weeks ago," general manager Jed Hoyer said of the $9.5 million deal struck the day of Garza’s scheduled arbitration hearing. "We didn’t have any kind of long-term discussions before that, but certainly there was some dialogue about possibly having some long-term discussions at some point maybe this spring. . . . I think we probably will sit down and talk."
Garza, 28, wasn’t available to media. He told two reporters Friday that he didn’t want to talk about contract issues but was open to considering a long-term deal.
"We’ve said many times he’s the kind of guy we need," Hoyer said. "We need more Matt Garzas, not less. We need a rotation full of those guys, so if we can work something out, that’d be wonderful."
Why I think this is the right thing to do, after the jump.
Garza turned 28 in November. He's clearly not "ace" material, though it's also clear that right now, he's the best pitcher the Cubs have. His 2011 season was pretty much in line with his career norms, although he had career-bests in ERA, K/9 and K/BB ratios, and allowed just 14 home runs, sixth-fewest among all pitchers last year who threw as many innings as he did (198).
His contract, agreed to without an arb hearing, of $9.5 million for 2012 is a relative bargain, especially considering he asked for $12.5 million. Another performance like his 2011 would put him in that range, or perhaps a little higher, on a multiyear deal.
Other pitchers born in 1983, when Garza was, include Justin Verlander, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Edwin Jackson and Gavin Floyd. Some of those, clearly, are All-Stars heading for big paydays (Verlander and Hamels in particular). Edwin Jackson just got a one-year deal with the Nationals for slightly more than Garza will be making this season.
At 28, Garza should have at least four or five more productive seasons in him. With quite a bit of money coming off the Cubs' books at the end of this year (Ryan Dempster and the money owed to Carlos Zambrano in particular), the Cubs should be able to afford to pay Garza and also go after a bigger-name free agent starter (or maybe acquire one by trade).
A four-year offer for $56 million would be in the right ballpark, I'd think. You'd probably have a fifth-year option and a buyout involved, and maybe some of the money could be put in as incentive options (starts, innings, etc.)
Get it done, Theo & Jed.
0 recs | 182 comments
More sound decisionmaking from Theo and Jed
love the “we need a rotation full of those guys…” Giterdone indeed!
Emelie - February 19, 2012
I'm no expert...
but I’m guessing the Cubs have been putting feelers out on Garza for months. My next guess is that they didn’t like the value they were offered in exchange for Garza so it’s probably in their best interests to keep him. And I’m totally fine with that…
DKT - February 19, 2012
They eventually will have to keep someone so it may as well start with Garza.
Eventually you have to be done building for the future and use what you have built. Three of the cornerstones are there in Garza, Castro, and Rizzo. We need a fourth, whether we have him already or will get him in the future.
jpeters407 - February 19, 2012
They probably need 2-3 more and right now they are all TBD
By my reckoning, they would need one more top line SP, a high quality RH hitter (probably an OF), and a lights out guy for the bullpen (maybe Marmol, probably not). In prime 6 cornerstone guys like that could be up to $100M of payroll and then the team fills around the edges. I do think that amount is doable under a cap of $150M or so (looking for more TV revenue post-2014). The problem with the Hendry high payroll teams was too much money paid to guys who were really complementary pieces, not cornerstones.
ClarkFan - February 19, 2012
It can be less if some of them such as Rizzo are still cost controlled.
I agree that they need several more key pieces. Teams that win for years have stability at their base and then compliment them. Look at teams with sustained success since 1969 and the new playoff system and they all had a powerful core.
jpeters407 - February 19, 2012
Guys like Rizzo...
… presuming he is as good as advertised, and Castro, and other young players coming up, if they do form the core of the next Cubs contender, should be locked up in long term deals, buying out their arb years and maybe a year or so of free agency.
That would likely lower costs and keep the core together.
If Castro has another good year in 2012, I’d lock him up before the year is over.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
Yes I agree, I would like to see Garza, Castro, and Rizzo as Cubs in 2020.
Joined by whoever comes out of the minors to make an impact, it hopefully will be like KC in a few years. If they can lock in some of their youth they could be viable for a decade.
jpeters407 - February 19, 2012
Garza a Cub in 2020?
The guy will be 36. I suppose if he’s at the end of his deal that would be OK …
elgato - February 19, 2012
2020?
Is that even a real year?
;-)
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
At this rate, "In The Year 2525"
Will be when this experiment finally bears fruit.
Not Bruce Froemming - February 20, 2012
Patience Young Skywalker........
We’ve only had 1 offseason under the new regime, and they’ve made some pretty solid moves thus far.
jballgame - February 20, 2012
The jury
still is deliberating, but … if 2020 is supposed to be when the Cubs are “good again,” count me out.
Not Bruce Froemming - February 20, 2012
QUICK
Who’s your favorite character from LOST?
dtpollitt - February 20, 2012
Never seen it
Sorry.
Not Bruce Froemming - February 21, 2012
And patient?
I’ve been patient since 1969. Some of us are becoming more and more aware of our own mortality.
Not Bruce Froemming - February 20, 2012
Which is why we're all confused as to why you want to tread water
shoemile - February 20, 2012
I don't
You’ve got to use all the bullets in your arsenal. Theo and Jed are using some of them.
Not Bruce Froemming - February 20, 2012
You think there are many more bullets in the arsenal than there really are.
And it doesn’t appear you care about the consequences of using them all. That mindset is how we got here.
shoemile - February 20, 2012
stop making sense
lookingdeadred - February 20, 2012
The consequences of using them?
Like winning a lot more often?
Not Bruce Froemming - February 21, 2012
What other bullets......
do you speak of?
jballgame - February 20, 2012
Why, sign Fielder, Reyes, Buehrle & Sabathia and empty the farm for Wright, of course
ballhawk - February 20, 2012
why not put pujols in RF?
jesus christos - February 20, 2012
Pujols too?
don’t be ridiculous…
ballhawk - February 20, 2012
fine
beltran in center and kubel in right
jesus christos - February 20, 2012
And the "we're all confused" part of your comment
Seems to suggest “everybody” here is of one mind-set. I guarantee you that’s not the case.
Not Bruce Froemming - February 20, 2012
You're right.
Let’s go with “many of us”
shoemile - February 20, 2012
I really enjoy this debate much, much more
When I notice your tagline is: “THIS IS THE YEAR”
Split personality?
Orval Overall - February 20, 2012
For the Marlins.
shoemile - February 20, 2012
safe to say most do not see things your way
feel free to believe that the Cubs could fashion a contender in 2012, but I am sure most think it is a fantasy
lookingdeadred - February 20, 2012
don't try to add facts or reasons
If some of us have learned anything over the past few years it’s that some people will be like Z warned each and every year to try and treat others like humans.
Madison Cub Fan - February 20, 2012
so NBF will be traded to fish stripes for a poster with some potential?
jesus christos - February 20, 2012
not sure if that's possible
Have you seen there site
http://www.fishstripes.com/
http://www.fishstripes.com/2012/2/20/2811557/marlins-team-bar-in-nyc
Madison Cub Fan - February 21, 2012
Point fingers at me all you want if it makes you feel better,
but some of you are kings of arrogance, smugness and elitism.
Not Bruce Froemming - February 21, 2012
Aaaand...
… that was unnecessary.
Al Yellon - February 21, 2012
I believe
it was absolutely necessary.
Not Bruce Froemming - February 22, 2012
play the victim if it makes you feel better
lookingdeadred - February 22, 2012
And........
jballgame - February 22, 2012
Holy crap, the irony of this post is simply mind boggling.
Nunyabidness - February 20, 2012
Yes, having a cornerstone guy who is pre-FA is a major plus
My point was that in the longer term (with a new TV deal), the Cubs should be able to afford paying their top 6 guys something like $100M.
ClarkFan - February 19, 2012
Garza would be a nice addition to any teams starting rotation but to say...
…“we need a rotation full of those guys” is basically saying we want a rotation full of under-achievers. That has been the story of Garza’s career to this point, not once reaching the full level of his potential. Maybe that’s to come.
troutfishin - February 19, 2012
Yeah, it would really be awful to have a rotation full of pitchers who put up a 2.95 FIP and 5 WAR/year
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3340&position=P
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0
Look at those numbers in the second link carefully. Garza’s 2011 was basically a clone of Felix Hernandez, with 35 fewer innings.pitched. How much would you be willing to pay for Hernandez?
ClarkFan - February 19, 2012
We don't want Felix Hernandez.
We want a lefty.
Oooops. Wrong GM.
timh815 - February 19, 2012
No problem - Cole Hamels
ClarkFan - February 19, 2012
touche`
timh815 - February 19, 2012
My Lord I didn't realize he threw up a 5.0 last year.
dtpollitt - February 19, 2012
May not be a candidate for mean reversion, either
On the individual page on Fangraphs, it is remarkable how much his pitch use changed in 2011 from his history. Went from 72% fastballs to 55%. That may mean he (or his catcher) got a new insight on how to use his pitches.
ClarkFan - February 19, 2012
wow
life got in the way of baseball last year, I had no idea Graza threw the ball quite that well last season
T.P. Grant - February 19, 2012
Five Matt Garza's would be a hell of a rotation.
Dcr18 - February 19, 2012
yeah
He really underachieved in the playoffs a couple years back. Only won the ALCS MVP … what an underachiever.
Orval Overall - February 20, 2012 via iPhone app
And as we all know, one good postseason clearly disproves everything else.
Nunyabidness - February 20, 2012
One dumb comment deserves another
For troutfishin to say that the “story of Garza’s career” has been underachievement was stupid. Even if you’re disappointed in Garza for some unexplained reason, that comment was a dumb oversimplification. So sue me for responding with another dumb oversimplification.
I mean, obviously the ALCS MVP is a meaningless achievement … the Cubs aren’t even eligible for the ALCS, so what good does it do us to have its MVP???
Orval Overall - February 20, 2012
I'm okay with signing him to an extension.
That shouldn’t, however, preclude us from listening to offers and perhaps trading him at the deadline. Realistically-his first 2 years are going to be worthless for the Cubs as we won’t be very competitive. The last few years may be worth it if we continue to make the right moves, so if he can bring back some solid young talent that can contribute at the MLB level in year 3/4/5 of the contract, we need to think hard about that option as well.
jballgame - February 19, 2012
Eventually we have to keep some of what we have.
Garza can be a cornerstone for the next five years along with Castro and Rizzo.
jpeters407 - February 19, 2012
And Jackson.
Dcr18 - February 19, 2012
Don't write off 2013 just yet
More of the overpaying deals run off this year. There may be real high level SPs available in FA. And the propects and cost controlled guys stockpiled this winter could be flipped into an OF bat that a lower budget team can’t afford due to arbitration.
ClarkFan - February 19, 2012
I'm not writing it off......
But realistically, a TON would have to be done to turn a 70 win team into a 90 win team. I’m not trying to be pessimistic, just realistic.
jballgame - February 20, 2012
Not saying this will happen.
But the Diamondbacks did it a year ago.
There are tons of examples of teams that have done this, including the Cubs teams of 1984, 1998 and 2003.
Al Yellon - February 20, 2012
I hear ya.
Like I said……………a TON would have to happen. Therefore, not sure year 1 and year 2 of Garza are worth it, so if you get a few good young pitchers who can contribute at his level/better than his level by 2014, you make a trade, cost savings aside.
jballgame - February 20, 2012
I wouldn't write off 2013 either ...
but Theo must be prepared to overspend a little to get the likes of Cain or Hamels after 2012 . He won’t get them in the bargain bins next year , and in my eyes that’s exactly who he should be shooting for next year .
walterj - February 20, 2012
It appears likely
that Cain will resign with the Giants. They’re already talking extension.
jballgame - February 20, 2012
So is Hamels. Doesn't really mean much one way or the other.
Everybody “talks” extension.
ballhawk - February 20, 2012
Have read that the Giants have money problems - let's see how far "talks" go
ClarkFan - February 21, 2012
That will be telling
If Theo doesn’t do it, then “Pittsburgh West” might actually come to pass.
Not Bruce Froemming - February 21, 2012
you actually believe that's a possiblity, don't you...
ballhawk - February 21, 2012
I certainly do
I’m not from Missouri, but they’ll have to show me.
Not Bruce Froemming - February 21, 2012
so you'll never be happy until the final out of the final game of the Cubs winning the World Series?
Anything short of that, you’ll continue to grumble, harumph, bitch, moan, growl? All your Cubs joy is backloaded to the extreme?
ballhawk - February 22, 2012
I have plenty of Cubs joy, bh
And I see exactly what you’re trying to do here. I’m not going to fall into your trap. Better luck next time, dude.
Not Bruce Froemming - February 22, 2012
Not trying to trap - just trying to help you see how others see you (if that matters to you)
I would certainly hope that your Cubs joy is not 100% backloaded and only appears when they win it all. So my apologies for the hyperbole.
But when you sit there and say there’s a chance Theo & Jed came over to the Cubs so they could run this franchise like Pittsburgh (small market revenues, signing 3rd tier FAs at best, trading away or not re-signing their young talent when they approach or hit the 6 year mark)… well, I’d say you’re laying a pretty big trap for yourself and you’re falling into it.
You say “show me”. Fine – I can appreciate that philosophy. But I have to ask, haven’t they (Theo, Jed) already shown you enough that’d you be somewhat cautiously optimistic?
ballhawk - February 22, 2012
Well, they've shown me
They know how to get rid of the team’s most talented players, for better or worse. It remains to be seen if what they got back will be worth it.
I’m cautiously optimistic, with an emphasis on the “cautiously.” I’ve seen various Cubs saviors come and go over the years, so forgive me if I’m not into it heart and soul. Theo and Jed were the best people available, and I really liked their hiring. The next year or two will tell me if my like was misplaced.
Not Bruce Froemming - February 22, 2012
WHA?
Flaherty, Marwin Gonzalez, Colvin, LeMahieu, Koyie, Cashner, Big Z, and Marshall were the team’s most talented players?
Seems to me we still have a LOT more talented players still here than have departed.
I can see the Marshall deal upsetting you, but Cashner still had all sorts of question marks in terms of what he was going to end up being, and Rizzo has just as much talent, if not more, and fills bigger needs (1B, power, etc.) than what likely will be a bullpen arm in Cashner.
jballgame - February 22, 2012
Maybe the extension talk
is to make sure they don’t seem too eager to deal him and keep his value up
jasperthepilot - February 19, 2012
Could be, but
I don’t think Theo is so cloak and dagger like that. If he sees Garza as a 15M/Yr type, he wants to pay under 14 per, or get 17M in return value.
It’s part of The Cubs Way.
timh815 - February 19, 2012
Thats why I’m in the either sign him long term or trade him camp. Just keeping him for 2 years isn’t in my bag.
puckishcubsfan - February 19, 2012
More Garzas
Damn right. I liked the way he competed last year, but he vaulted to the top of my respect ladder when he brushed off Quade’s stupid order to strike out on purpose so Castro could attempt to get his 200th hit at Wrigley.
A optimal example of the right way to play the game vs. the wrong way.
John916 - February 19, 2012
Is this a real thing?
Quade told Garza to get an out on purpose?
dtpollitt - February 19, 2012
Told him not to swing.
shoemile - February 19, 2012
Correct.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
Check it out
It comes in at about 1:05 into the video. You should sit down for this.
John916 - February 19, 2012
Oops
http://www.csnchicago.com/sportsnetChicago/search/v/45826919/quade-tried-to-tell-garza-to-strike-out-on-purpose-in-his-final-at-bat-to-try-to-put-castro-in-a-better-spot-to-get-his-200th-hit-at-home-9-21.htm
John916 - February 19, 2012
That really was ridiculous.
Shows you in one interview how clueless Quade was.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
I remember reading Garza's take on it, but I didn't know Quade commented on it.
At the time, I thought Quade at least knew how bad it looked, and Garza coming out and talking about it kinda let the cat out of the bag. Now I see he brought it up himself, and thought the whole thing was funny. QIAFI.
shoemile - February 19, 2012
Yeah.
Really, even if you did that and believed it was the right thing to do, why would you tell the entire world?
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
QIAFI
jesus christos - February 19, 2012
....
santoswoodenlegs - February 19, 2012
Some things will forever remain unexplained.
Like why he was hired in the first place.
shoemile - February 19, 2012
HIAFI
santoswoodenlegs - February 19, 2012
quade had some embarassing photos of randy bush from their roommate days
jesus christos - February 19, 2012
Must've been some Privateer hazing ritual.
shoemile - February 19, 2012
What. The. Shit.
I don’t remember this being discussed at all, what a complete loon. There are three things going on here:
1 – He told a guy to not swing (read: try)
2 – It wasn’t even close to the last day of the year, there were 6 games left, yet for some reason “at home” mattered
3 – The Brewers were in the playoff hunt
Man he’s a dumbshit.
dtpollitt - February 19, 2012
I didn't read the article..................
But why would these things be important to anyone? I mean if this is typing Paul Molitors or Joe D’s record I could at least understand it a bit.
Madison Cub Fan - February 19, 2012
Garza - Get it done!!!
eths - February 19, 2012
fire theo
the cosmic wrong must be righted
jesus christos - February 19, 2012
Yeah, this is some BS.
shoemile - February 19, 2012
Verlander is signed through 2014.
Is there talk of another deal for him?
I agree with the general point. Garza could end up being to the Cubs what Mark Buehrle was to the Sox for the past few years: a high-paid starter who is worth his contract as a reliable No. 2 for several years.
elgato - February 19, 2012
Reference to Verlander
… was simply noting that he and Garza are the same age.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
I thought you said Verlander and Hamels were in line for big paydays ... ?
elgato - February 19, 2012
Read it again.
“Some” of the pitchers I listed are in line for big paydays. Not “all” of them.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
I have read it several times -- and I'm not trying to be a jerk to you.
It sounds like you’re saying Hamels and Verlander are All-Stars heading for big paydays. I’m not really sure of another way to read that.
Again — not submitted to be an ass to you, Al. Initially, I was curious as to whether there was talk of a new deal for Verlander, which would have an impact on Garza.
elgato - February 19, 2012
It doesn't say next year, just that they are headed towards a big payday.
jpeters407 - February 19, 2012
OK
… when I wrote that, I didn’t recall that Verlander was locked up. No, I have not heard of such a deal. Let’s move on.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
I'm more than happy to do that.
However, I’m not thrilled that you tried to make this out to be a matter of my reading deficiency.
elgato - February 19, 2012
Check your email.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
Seems like it would be time to move on
after you say “Oh, sorry, I can see that I wasn’t clear.”
cubzfan - February 19, 2012
You could've
taken a slightly higher road here.
tomas21 - February 19, 2012
So, did you forget that Verlander was locked up?
Or did you say SOME and Elgato was a dumbass for reading what you wrote wrong?
Nunyabidness - February 19, 2012
Bird in the Hand
In light of our scant high-upside, SP pipeline, we need to keep a guy like Garza if we’re to be competitive by ‘13 or ’14. I was ok with moving him we had received a Gio-like haul but that apparently wasn’t the market. There are those who think we’ll find a desperate club this summer to pay up but I must point out that he’ll be a 1/2 season closer to FA. A four yr deal would still give Jedstein quite a bit of flexibility in constructing the roster.
Mmurton - February 19, 2012 via mobile
For the record...
The vast majority of the “trade Garza” crowd was/is also in favor of an extension at the right price.
If 4 years @ $14M per will do it……. done. And I’d add to that a club option for a 5th year at $15M with no buyout… but bump his salary this year up another $1M in exchange for no buyout.
I’d consider going as high as $15M, but that’s it. Because for all the uncertainties about prospects (potentially acquired in a trade), there are nearly as many with long-term pitching contracts. Ask the Mets (Santana), Rockies (Hampton, Neagle), Yankees (Burnett), Red Sox (Lackey), et al. Most of those deals looked like good ideas from a talent perspective (i.e., a good idea to lock up that talent for an extended period), even if the years and/or dollars were a bit much.
Many people thought the Z extension was a good idea at the time, too. You had a pitcher who was young, strong, and had shown flashes of brilliance… teasing an extremely high upside. Sure, there were a couple of red flags (high workload and “temper, temper”), but surely those could be overlooked. (Also worth noting that from a WAR value perspective, Z was ‘worth’ his deal in ’08 and ’09… not so much since).
Garza comes with many strengths (the stuff obviously, strong competitor, perhaps finally learning how to really pitch, the right age, durable), but also some red flags, too (was known to have a bit of a temper in Tampa though obviously not to Z’s level, rather inconsistent year-to-year performances, lots of statistical outliers in ’11).
So an extension? Sure… at the right length (no more than 4 years or 5th on club option) and price ($15M tops).
fsuapollo - February 19, 2012
There has to be a buy-out or the option is meaningless.
SandalsNoPants - February 19, 2012
Well the point of
offering the bump in salary would be to hold an exclusive club option. Essentially, that would be the buyout.
If contractually you had to have an “official” buyout, then just make it the minimum allowed.
fsuapollo - February 19, 2012
I would imagine
he’d want a bigger option year with a bigger buyout. 15 mil for a 5th year option would be pretty Cub-friendly when top pitchers can get closer to 20 mil now.
But I agree, something in the neighborhood of 14-15 mil a year for 4 or 5 years would be a nice deal.
I kind of think they still want to trade him though.
tomas21 - February 19, 2012
No doubt he'd want a bigger buyout.
You just negotiate through these things. I wasn’t trying to imply that he would definitely take my “offer”… just a jumping off point.
If he starts asking for anything near 20… bye-bye.
fsuapollo - February 19, 2012
My blood runs cold...News on The Franchise:
Per The Daily Herald: “Blake DeWitt has cleared waivers and could rejoin The Cubs as a non-roster invitee”… If this isn’t a sign the world will end in 2012…I don’t know what is!?
jeffstorm2 - February 19, 2012
I'm ready for 2012...
jeffstorm2 - February 19, 2012
I like Blake DeWitt.
There. I said it. Deal with it.
Ross - February 19, 2012
Franchise says thanks mom.
jpeters407 - February 19, 2012
Hiya jp!
jeffstorm2 - February 19, 2012
Hey js
jpeters407 - February 19, 2012
(I don't get into online spats...)
But that was a funny reply on your part!
jeffstorm2 - February 19, 2012
Me neither, I could not resist.
Now an online discussion? Sure I will enter one of them anytime.
jpeters407 - February 19, 2012
^Agreed!^
jeffstorm2 - February 20, 2012
Dealing. With. It. ... :]
jeffstorm2 - February 19, 2012
I've got to quibble a bit with this, Al.
First, there’s the contradiction with the first half of the sentence and the four important statistical categories that followed.
But more numbers show that Garza’s ’11 season was fairly radically different. Now, he certainly pitched differently… which likely caused a bunch of that improvement. But these peripherals are all worth watching.
All the following stats (Fangraphs) compare Garza’s career average (including the ’11 season) to last season… meaning the performance gaps would be even larger if you compared last season to his career averages coming into the season.
K/9
Career 7.5
’11 season 8.95 (19% increase… and again, would be more based on previous)
BB/9
Career 3.11
’11 season 2.86 (8.7% better)
HR/9
Career 0.97
’11 season 0.64 (51.6%!!!!!)
BABIP
Career .290
‘11 season .306 (-5.5%, so he was a little ’unlucky’, though .300 is generally a benchmark average)
LOB%
Career 72.9%
’11 season 69.7% (4.6% better)
GB%
Career 41%
’11 season 46.3% (+12.9%)
HR/FB%
Career 9.1%
’11 season 7.7% (+18.2%)
ERA
Career 3.83
’11 season 3.32 (+15.4%)
FIP
Career 3.98
’11 season 2.95 (+34.9%!!)
xFIP
Career 4.10
’11 season 3.19 (+28.5%)
WAR
Career (previous full seasons) (1.6, 3.1, 2.9)
’11 season 5.0 (61.3% higher than previous best… a jump of 1 WAR is a lot… he shot up nearly 2!!)
So…. with all due respect Al, there was rather little about Garza’s 2011 season that was “in line” with his previous years. Now, maybe (and hopefully, if an extension is signed) given his decidedly different pitching pattern and added maturity last season… this is the new norm rather than an outlier.
fsuapollo - February 19, 2012
quibble-smibble
Thanks for the stats! Interesting.
jeffstorm2 - February 19, 2012
Fair enough.
Obviously, I didn’t go through all the numbers like you did. I didn’t want to make it sound like I thought Garza had reached a new level of performance, but it appears he might have.
All the more reason to lock him up.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
Or to sell high on him.
It all depends on the potential return, the Cubs’ internal projections for Garza and what they think it will take to lock him up.
That said, I think it’s a fine time to lock him up if he’ll accept a reasonable deal — like the one you offered up in your post. TheoJed clearly think that what’s being offered for him isn’t enough, and I trust their judgment.
elgato - February 19, 2012
...
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
Indeed... agreement all the way through.
fsuapollo - February 19, 2012
Awwwh...
I can feel the LOVE from here!!! :]
jeffstorm2 - February 19, 2012
He also pitched to pitchers 2-3 times a game.
How far off are those stats when compared from the AL to NL?
jpeters407 - February 19, 2012
That could be one of the reasons.
We have seen other pitchers come from the AL East to the NL Central and have similar improvement (Bronson Arroyo, Ted Lilly).
Nevertheless, he is now IN the NL Central. So that improvement could well be permanent.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
Could very well be permanent.
That was a point of great discussion in the offseason… what would the balance between the gain from moving to the NLC be compared to the ‘loss’ with the Cubs worse defense and better hitters’ park.
On face, it would seem the division move trumped all… but Wrigley played as a pitchers’ park last season. That could also explain a portion of the big drop in HR rate. So if we assume Wrigley “bounces back” to being more hitter friendly this season (if our mild winter is any indication, maybe it won’t be borderline frigid throughout May this year)… Garza could pitch just as well, but still see an uptick in his numbers.
fsuapollo - February 19, 2012
Garza gave up 11 HR at Wrigley, only 3 on the road in 2011.
OTOH, his ERA at home was 2.46; 4.56 on the road.
Conclusion: inconclusive.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
I'd still prefer
they try and make another play to move him at the deadline to a contender for what should be a decent return. If there’s no takers or the return isn’t good enough, then I suppose there could be worse things than having Garza in your Rotation.
DamonBerryhillsMitt - February 19, 2012
further reason to dump garza
jesus christos - February 19, 2012
Heh.
Saw that. Z hasn’t been a Cy Young contender since 2007, when he finished fifth in the voting. He has finished fifth three times: 2004, 2006, 2007.
I’m not seeing it.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
he's completely underselling Z's talent
he’s not going to just contend, he’s going to run away with the award
jesus christos - February 19, 2012
Only if he grabs it off the table where it's being awarded to someone else.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
he's a changed man
he said so himself
jesus christos - February 19, 2012
Yeah, he said that each of the last three years, IIRC
How’d that work out?
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
fool me once, shame on you
feel me twice, shame on you
fool me three times, obviously we were looking at the wrong things and you were changed the entire time
jesus christos - February 19, 2012
Hey bud, you got some change for me...
eths - February 19, 2012
i messed that one up
guess i’m so used to everyone else being blamed when Z goes crazy
jesus christos - February 19, 2012
"contender"?
What a wanker. Z’s got the Cy Young wrapped up.
shoemile - February 19, 2012
TOO LATE, SUCKA
jesus christos - February 19, 2012
YOU'RE NO REAL FAN
shoemile - February 19, 2012
TEARS WERE RUNNING DOWN MY FACE WHEN THEY WON THE PENNANT IN '03
jesus christos - February 19, 2012
I'M GOING TO MOVE TO MIAMI AND RENT A STUDIO APARTMENT.
shoemile - February 19, 2012
I WATCH BURN NOTICE
jesus christos - February 19, 2012
I CONCEDE
shoemile - February 19, 2012
Just for Gabrielle Anwar, right?
ClarkFan - February 19, 2012
UH NO IT'S A GOOD SHOW
jesus christos - February 19, 2012
Paging Mr. Volstad
I hope that Z finds peace and does well in Miami. He wasn’t going to in Chicago, however, and I’m delighted that he’s gone.
leothelip - February 19, 2012
Z could be the president of the change of scenery is what was needed club. BUt I don’t think being with Ozzie was the answer. He’d be better off with a level headed manager.
ANd the biggest joke is people saying Buerhle could be a calming influence. I like Mark don’t get me wrong but if you can’t get along with Ryan Dempster you have trouble with anyone!
puckishcubsfan - February 19, 2012
How long will it take
for Z and Ozzie to have their first public blowup? First game of spring training?
Not Bruce Froemming - February 20, 2012
They wont have one
if Z blows up it wont be on his manager – esp Oz
Hammer - February 20, 2012
Never say never when it comes to Z.
Al Yellon - February 20, 2012
just a hunch
Hammer - February 20, 2012
Z could win the Cy Young and the deciding WS game this year
for all I care.
I am just so happy to not be reading the Z is in the best shape of his career and Z vows to change articles.
Madison Cub Fan - February 19, 2012
I don't see 4-years at $65M ever happening
Interesting column, but how do you square your comment of "He’s clearly not “ace” material" with wishing to give Garza “ace” money at $15.2 million per. That’s a whole lot of guaranteed years and money for a pitcher who didn’t even pitch 200 innings last year and visited the DL with arm issues. The arguments in favor of the Cubs publicly talking extension is (1) improve their trade position and not seem an over-eager trader, and (2) you can get more in return for Garza if you trade him with more years of control. So if no eager buyers come knocking this spring training, I could see negotiations start, but the years and dollars you are proposing makes as little baseball economic sense as when Hendry gave Marmol a guaranteed $20 million deal to lock Marmol up for one extra year. In season, I don’t see Epstein offering more than a 3-year extension at $12M per. This factors in Garza’s DL visit last year, but if Garza gets off to a great start and we can’t find an over-eager trade partner that would change things. And if Garza gets through the season healthy, pitches 200-plus innings and duplicates his 3.32 ERA of 2011, the amount goes up. But no need for Epstein to take on all the risk of premium years and premium dollars when he still has control of Garza for two years. Remember this is the GM who had Papelbon, an AS reliever, on a series of one-year contracts. No need to create false urgency to get a deal done. That was the Hendry years.
jayburd2020 - February 19, 2012
I said $56m, not $65...
…. that’s essentially what Dempster has gotten the last four years. I think Garza will be at least that productive, maybe more.
Weird to say, but $15 million a year isn’t “ace” money any more.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
there's a difference between locking up starters and locking up closers
closers are the most overrated and overpaid players in baseball
jesus christos - February 19, 2012
The Phillies are going to really regret that Papelbon deal, I think.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
I'm guessing you've never had a good closer...
ballhawk - February 19, 2012
tying up all that money for someone to get three outs is a bad idea
does anyone even know who the cards primary closer was in the postseason?
jesus christos - February 19, 2012
no, but I know who the Yankees' closer was for their 4 WS wins in the last 15 years
You can tie up too much money on anyone – being overrated and overpaid is not limited by position.
If you’re trailing in a close game going into the 9th, not too many things are more intimidating than facing a dominant closer, knowing you’ll probably go down 1-2-3. And if you’re leading in a close game going into the 9th, not too many things are more demarmolizing than having your closer walk the bases loaded and blow it.
I have no problems with spending big money on a dominant closer. I just have to do my due diligence before signing/trading him, like I would for any player for any position.
ballhawk - February 19, 2012
Look at the salary info for the top pitchers - $15M isn't "ace money"
“Ace money” starts at $20M….
ClarkFan - February 19, 2012
I wouldn't say..
Garza “clearly isn’t ace material”.. the talent for him to be one is certainly there.
Unique - February 19, 2012 via mobile
I've started spring training too - Listening to last year's first ST game now... ;-)
eths - February 19, 2012
So let me start another jumping off point.
It seems we’ve got a majority of agreement regarding the extension. So to me, the question becomes… where is the financial line?
Most of us seem fine with 4 years @ ~$14M.
Well… what about 4 years @ $17M with a club option?
5 years @ $16M?
6 years @ $14M?
What do you do if Garza’s agent sets a floor at $16.5M per?
I’m not sure I have the “answer”… but I’m interested in the discussion.
fsuapollo - February 19, 2012
I don't think I'd do six years.
Way long for a pitcher.
Somewhere in those numbers are the right ones. It’s up to TheoJed to negotiate creatively.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
4 or 5 years with a club option,
show faith in your best players. No back loading, no player option.
jpeters407 - February 19, 2012
That would work for me.
Al Yellon - February 19, 2012
Six years would still only take us to Garza being 34 right?
I’d be okay with that, if the annual salary wasn’t an albatross.
Nunyabidness - February 20, 2012
I'm for the 2 extremes
Either sign him long term or trade him for a nice package now. Long term he could be the centerpiece pitching wise of the building of a champion. Just for the next 2 years I’m not so sure I’d rather have what we can get.
puckishcubsfan - February 19, 2012
For the record
For the record I’m hoping he signs long term of the 2 extremes.
puckishcubsfan - February 19, 2012
There are a lot of other options.
Trading him at the deadline, for instance.
The chances of Garza pitching in Chicago for the next two years and walking are virtually nil, I’d say.
elgato - February 19, 2012
On a selfish note
I’m all for it since the highlights of every game he pitches are on the local news in Fresno. He’s a local hero.
Josh Timmers - February 19, 2012
Trade or or extend him?
Both make sense for a team like the Cubs. Trading him for prospects makes sense for a team undergoing a total make over.
Extending him makes sense, too, as he is young enough to be good for many more years making him a good candidate to be the foundation of a new (and hopefully improved) rotation.
lookingdeadred - February 20, 2012
Extending him also makes sense because in a couple of years, this team will be relatively bad contract free
We’ll have a ton of money to spend and a lot of good free agents or trade targets to fill the holes. This is what I don’t think people like Bruce get. 2012 is going to SUUUUUUUUUCK but we AREN’T the Pirates. Our rebuild can be sped up because of the amount of money we have to spend.
Of course, in order to rebuild, you have to tear down the crappy foundation, which is what 2012 is. Doesn’t mean we’re going to suck for a decade.
Nunyabidness - February 20, 2012
regarding nbf's comments, consider the source
lookingdeadred - February 20, 2012
I think you look at what they're saying as well as what they're not saying..
If their real goal is to sign him long-term, rather than drive up his trade value, why talk him up like this? My gut is telling me that they’re just waiting to move him for prospects.
DisCUBbobulated - February 20, 2012
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