The system rankings were yesterday, today ESPN's Keith Law released his individual top 100 (note: Insider content linked above). He also sorted the list by team's top 10s (also Insider).
Cub Top Ten (ranking in top 100 in parentheses):
Rizzo (36)
Jackson (89... and at this point we have to assume Jax kicked Law's dog somewhere along the way)
Baez (95)
McNutt
Cates
Castillo
Maples
Vitters
Golden
Szczur
Concepcion wasn't included as his signing isn't official, though Law doesn't seem impressed by him, either.
Another bit from his rankings worth noting... Hak-Ju Lee is the #12 overall prospect and Chris Archer checks in at #63. Just food for thought.
I know Law isn't real popular around here and with some good reason. But we can discuss his list, anyway.
Law
Sometimes I think Law doesn’t even go out and watch these kids play. I think he takes the lists from other people and moves guys arounds and makes some very bold rankings on some guys just in case he is right. Then he can write a column and say “See, I was right about….”
Another “expert” at ESPN.
Blah…
Crash1207 - February 9, 2012
Not only does Law see the players he writes about
but since he lives in Phoenix, he is frequently seen at Instructional League games, Rookie League games, Arizona Fall League games, etc.
However you feel about Law, you can’t say he doesn’t do the leg work, because that simply isn’t true.
azjazzman - February 9, 2012
I spent many a fall afternoon chatting with him at AFL games this last year.
AzCubfan24 - February 9, 2012
He just said in his chat today that he's actually seen only 70 of the 100 prospects on his top 100 list
Steve (Lake Tahoe)
How often do you actually get to see these guys that you can actually rank the top 100 without completely talking out of your behind?
Klaw (1:48 PM)
I’ve seen the majority of the guys on the list. I haven’t counted this year’s, but in past years I’ve been around 70/100, counting looks at guys before the draft. Living in Arizona helps.
magicblue - February 9, 2012
I would rather have underrated guys
who are going to perform well in the bigs than have some higher ranked guys who are a bust. Not that that is the scenario here, but rankings by guys like Law are just rankings from guys who sit at a desk and write about minor leaguers for a paycheck.
Lee would be great to have still, but isn’t he another year or two away at least? I realize our window to compete isn’t for another couple years though. By then I hope Castro is seasoned and stronger defensively. Hopefully Garza will be either extended for quite a while or traded for some even higher ceiling guys than Lee come late summer.
portlandcubfan - February 9, 2012
The idea was, in 2 years Castro becomes a plus defender at 2B.
Of course, we thought it would be a good idea to go get a frontline starter, with 2 remaining years of cost control for a team on the verge of utter collapse.
Never start a land war in Asia, and don’t make deals involving prospects with Andrew Friedman.
D98 - February 9, 2012
want some more sauce with that meatball?
jesus christos - February 9, 2012
To be fair, Garza had 3 years of control left when the Cubs got him.
I’ve also never seen Lee ranked nearly so high by anyone other than Law. I see him around 40-60 a lot more than anywhere else, which is fair with the questions his bat has.
bdlugz - February 9, 2012
And never
Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line
jpeters407 - February 9, 2012
HAHAHAHAHA!
AAAAAAAAH HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH-
CJK - February 9, 2012
...
ubercubsfan - February 9, 2012
I do not think that word means what you think it does.
daver - February 10, 2012
I assume you mean Lee at SS & Castro at 2B....
When you mention Castro as a plus defender at 2B I take it you have Lee at SS in 2 (Cub fantasy) years. Thing is, Castro is only 7 months older than Lee. Castro’s fatal flaw at SS is the errors. However, he has had a higher fielding percentage than Lee the last two years. He also had a higher range factor this past year. It is clear to me that Castro has all the tools to play SS and just needs to nail the fundamentals. Isn’t that the book on Lee?
boubucarow - February 9, 2012
The book on Lee is "transcendent glove skills".
The book on Castro is ""may need to move off the position if the silly errors continue."
D98 - February 9, 2012
I suppose...
It isn’t like I have seen Lee play defense. What I do see in Castro is the arm and range to make more plays than many SS but his pre-pitch preparation and horrible footwork undermines everything.
boubucarow - February 10, 2012
My question about rankings like this is
How right is the guy doing the ranking? Does Keith Law have a high or a low hit rate with projecting his top 20-30 prospects as successful major league players?
RiskyBusiness - February 9, 2012
Oh, hell. Time to rank the rankers to see who's rank is right and who's rank is rank.
SouthWabashSoul - February 9, 2012
If we all just sit at desks and make rankings of the rankers........
fsuapollo - February 9, 2012
Bad rankers will be told - Your Rank is Stank!
RiskyBusiness - February 9, 2012
Jax at 89 and Lee at 12 raised my eyebrows, too.
To distract from the rough looking 2012 Cubs season, it should be fun to watch the Buccos AAA affiliate Indianapolis Indians’ this summer.
Mapanator - February 9, 2012
That seems high for Lee.
To justify a top 15 ranking, I would have expected Lee to have to continue hitting everything in sight at AA, which he did not.
Also, that’s giving Archer a lot of credit for his (admittedly impressive) second half turnaround.
D98 - February 9, 2012
I doubt he ranked Castro that high in 2010
Mitchener - February 9, 2012
Wrong!
I believe he had Castro at #12.
People just like to rip him because he has been down on the Cubs especially Vitters and Jackson. Vitters is looking like a good call. We’ll see on Jackson.
rlpete - February 9, 2012
Jackson was at 32 at midseason....
Does Law explain why he’s so low? I don’t have insider.
wrigleyrocker12 - February 9, 2012
I think you have a couple lists crossed up.
I believe Jax was 32 on the BA list… but I may be off, as well.
In Law’s write-up, he notes that he had Jackson in the “just missed the top 100” last year, so this is actually a move up for Brett (in Law’s eyes). Here’s his write-up:
While I still think his ranking is low, I’m not sure there’s anything in that analysis that is categorically unfair. Brett’s got a lot going for him… but his ceiling is limited if he can’t lower his K rate from awful at least down to ‘high’.
fsuapollo - February 9, 2012
It was the BA list, but that's a pretty big discrepancy.
wrigleyrocker12 - February 9, 2012
It is.
But Law has been pretty consistent on Jackson. It doesn’t make him “right”… but it’s his view.
Some of these rankers also construct their lists differently based on what they value (e.g., upside vs. readiness). I would say Law definitely favors upside, again…. right or wrong.
fsuapollo - February 9, 2012
law also notes at the beginning
he’s placed a higher emphasis on ceiling than floor in the rankings. I think Jackson is highly regarded by most because of the rather high floor he has. Very few prospect guys consider Jackson to be a future “star”, most think he’ll be a solid to above average regular
DartmouthCubsFan - February 9, 2012
I can't decide whether to hope...
…Brett Jackson turns out to be another Drew Stubbs or worry about it. Stubbs has been worth 8 fWAR over the past three seasons, but his strikeout rate is pretty worrisome.
daver - February 10, 2012
I've been thinking about Stubbs as well in comparison to Jackson.
Jackson may walk a bit more but the other numbers could be similar.
rlpete - February 11, 2012
Which version of Drew Stubbs?
The 2010 version with a higher walk rate would be a very productive player – that would get you a CF with an OPS around .800. The 2011 version, not so much; Stubbs’ power went away last year.
ClarkFan - February 11, 2012
Really just cites his struggles to make contact. Fair enough, but he walks enough for me.
Big shocker of this list, of course is Cates. Not sure if he just hates our system or likes Cates, but if we get value out of him, then that Rizzo trade looks real good.
Mak19 - February 9, 2012
Other major surprise is Szczur at 10...
I know Law doesn’t like him, but I’d love to hear him justify that ranking.
bdlugz - February 9, 2012
From August 18th, 2012...
jpchi - February 9, 2012
2011*
i’m an idiot
jpchi - February 9, 2012
I would also argue that is one of the dumbest prospect reports I've ever seen.
That has been talked about a bit here. To claim he’s only a slap hitter with no power potential shows that he hasn’t watched Szczur much.
Szczur had a rough time after the promotion to A+ in 2011, however that was also by far the longest season he’s ever had and was his first season focusing on baseball. Before his bad walk rate in A+, he had an 8.6 BB% in 2010 and a 7 BB% before his promotion. That goes along with a K rate of around 10% last year. I wouldn’t say he’s got incredible patience, but outside of 40 games in A+, he hasn’t shown an inability to walk either.
As for Pierre type career – Szczur is an incredible defender in CF, with good routes, a strong arm, and good reads on balls. As for his power, he had a .117 ISO in A and a .150 ISO in A+. Pierre has a career .067 ISO… really a terrible comp.
bdlugz - February 9, 2012
I agree the power comment was a bit strange
though to split hairs… Law was saying that MS wouldn’t hit for any appreciable power unless his swing changes.
If the assessment of his swing being “slappy” is true (and I have no idea if that is accurate), then you wouldn’t expect much power as pitchers at higher levels keep him off balance.
So I read that comment as more of a note about the mechanics of his swing.
fsuapollo - February 9, 2012
Other write-ups
I posted the Jackson write-up above… here are the other two:
BAEZ
RIZZO
fsuapollo - February 9, 2012
Thanks.
wrigleyrocker12 - February 9, 2012
The thing I love the most about Baez - and I have never seen him play, mind you -
is that scouts compare his bat speed to Gary Sheffield. If that’s even REMOTELY the case, Baez could be just a great, great prospect.
Sheffield’s bat-speed was so much better than anyone else I’ve ever seen…. I can’t even think of who would be in second, really.
D98 - February 9, 2012
Completely agree.
When you saw Sheff twitch that bat, the instinct would be that he couldn’t get the bat through the zone, particularly on inside pitches. But he really snapped that bat through, which let him wait longer on pitches.
fsuapollo - February 9, 2012
screw keith law
jesus christos - February 9, 2012
We can't get too far down on Law.
The fact of the matter is, the Hendry crew had a pretty awful decade or so when it comes to producing major league talent, especially among position players. At this point, I don’t blame anyone for taking a “show-me” attitude about the next great Cub in Des Moines.
Besides, everyone loves Rizzo. I can’t wait to watch this kid hit.
D98 - February 9, 2012
Agree with you.
People frequently complain when someone rips on the Cubs. It isn’t as if they don’t deserve it. Law has consistently been down on Jackson so it isn’t as if he is changing his mind.
rlpete - February 9, 2012
That goes both ways...
Law is clearly against the consensus on Jackson and Szczur, and although he is consistent with his rankings, that doesn’t mean we need to stand back and agree with him. I don’t think attacking Law is necessary, but I don’t find the need to agree with him just because previous Cubs prospects were busts.
bdlugz - February 9, 2012
Nothing wrong with disagreeing but
some seem to jump on him just because he criticizes the Cubs. I’m fine with his rankings. He goes for upside and so you have to read his comments with that in mind.
rlpete - February 10, 2012
He goes for upside, but he also goes for a specific player profile...
And once he gets an idea in his head, it seems like he will never let go of it.
Kelly at 32? Yikes! Hicks at 80? What? A 22 year old about to repeat his 4th season of A or A+ ball? He hit .242 last year at A+ with a .308 BABIP. Szczur hit .260 with a .268 BABIP. They have a comparable ISO, yet one has power potential and one is Juan Pierre jr.? One is the #80 prospect in baseball (#10 the previous year) and the other is the #10 on his team? I don’t mind that he is consistently on players, but to be so high on one player and so low on another at the same level, same age, and similar skill sets is weird to me.
bdlugz - February 10, 2012
It seems his rankings have a lot to do with projected power
He projects Jackson for average power and for Szczur to have next to none. That really diminishes the value of both. Jackson’s power is projected as above average to plus by others while Szczur’s is seen to end up somewhere between below average and average. Jackson hitting 25-30 a season is a far different player than a 15-20 HR guy. Szczur knocking out 10-15 is clearly different than being lucky to knock one out an entire season. We will see I guess.
boubucarow - February 9, 2012
Law also likes upside.
You can argue whether ceiling or floor is more important but Law will look for the higher ceiling players. He had Castro high and if Baez hits well this season, he could rate him high next year.
rlpete - February 9, 2012
And another Law blurb... not worth its own post
From his list of sleeper prospects for every organization (Insider, again):
fsuapollo - February 10, 2012
Law makes a good point about Jackson
That only 2 batters who qualified for the batting title last year came close to Jackson’s strikeout rate: Drew Stubbs and Mark Reynolds. One of those guys is managed by Dusty Baker, so I can see why he played every day, the other has 30+ homer power.
subtle - February 10, 2012
His K% is also a bit overblown from 215 AB in AAA last year.
Even including those ABs, his average k% in the minors is right around 23-23.5%. Not great, but nowhere near the 29.8% he showed. There is a good chance that he will have a higher K% than we’d like to see, but I really don’t see him continuing at a 30% clip.
I think he’ll have somewhere around a 26-27 K% in the majors in his first year, and will eventually fall to an average of around 24-25% in his prime. Still not ideal, but not as massively terrible as some make it out to be.
bdlugz - February 10, 2012
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