I have only met Jim Hendry a couple of times personally, just briefly at a couple of Cubs Conventions. So I can't really say much about what he's like as a person, other than that he seemed personable and friendly.
That's the impression I have of him in his job, too -- friendly, outgoing, a guy who'll go have a few drinks with you, slap you on the back, tell you some funny stories, and has a zillion friends throughout the baseball world, where he's spent his entire adult working life. Among those years are 16 years spent in the Cubs organization, where he was farm director from 1995-2002, and major league general manager since July 5, 2002, a shade over nine years. That makes him the eighth-longest-tenured GM in baseball, behind Brian Sabean (1996), Billy Beane (1997), Brian Cashman (1997), Dan O'Dowd (1999), Kenny Williams (2000), Mark Shapiro (2001) and Dave Dombrowski (April 2002).
That's a long time, and the long relationships Hendry has made with other GMs has helped him make many deals. Some of them were good for the Cubs, others not. We've sliced and diced those so many ways -- that's not the point of this post.
Here's the point: Jim Hendry is very loyal. That is both his best quality and his worst. His loyalty to his players has helped players get pensions (Chad Fox) and slots with other teams when there was no place for them with the Cubs (Scott Moore, since returned, and Sam Fuld). Players and coaches and managers and scouts want to work for a guy like that -- wouldn't you? How many of you work for a boss who's loyal to people who work hard for him or her? Not many, I'd bet.
But Hendry's loyalty has also led him to keep players far past their shelf life; has led him to give jobs in both management and on the playing roster to friends, old college buddies, or buddies of buddies, and that's not the way to run a winning baseball team. You can't do it as an old-boy network. While Hendry did do a good job of building a division titlist in 2003, and again in 2007 and 2008, it was his attempted "tweaking" of that 2008 division champion to try to get to the next level that has led to his undoing.
I have no personal knowledge of this, but I assume Greg Maddux, as special assistant to Jim Hendry, was in attendance at the Cubs organizational meetings last week.
This will be the first time Maddux, who was hired after the 2010 season started, will have been able to sit in on those meetings and offer his thoughts on the future.
I'm making this post, actually, at Jessica's suggestion -- because as you know, she keeps track of All Things Maddux. She emailed me a number of names of pitchers who came under Maddux's wing in his time with the Braves, Dodgers and Padres -- as you probably remember, Sean Marshall spent a lot of time with Maddux in 2006 when Marshall was a rookie and Maddux was finishing his second stint with the Cubs.
There are four pitchers of varying value who should be available who all have said in the past that Maddux has helped them out. They are: Brad Penny, Kevin Millwood, Kyle Davies and Chris Young.
Should the Cubs go after any of these four? I really have no strong opinions about any of them (except Penny, who has a reputation as a bit of a hothead, but even that isn't that strong of an opinion). The Cubs have been linked to Millwood in the past; he had a terrible year in 2010 and is about to turn 36. Young had that celebrated fight with Derrek Lee and is coming off injuries; Davies isn't a free agent but might be non-tendered by the Royals.
Discuss, as they say, amongst yourselves.
Last week, during a discussion of what the Cubs' payroll will be for next season, someone asked if I'd do a post that sums up what the issues are in signing free agents for next year.
We know that Tom Ricketts has said that the Cubs' overall spending on baseball operations will be approximately the same as it was in 2010 -- $145 million. It was implied, however, that some of that money would be reallocated to other parts of the organization besides the major league payroll -- scouting, the minor league draft, etc.
We don't know exactly what that allocation will be, but a further implication was that the major league payroll would decline slightly. Here's a list of 2010 Opening Day team payrolls, on which the Cubs ranked at the top of NL teams and third to the Red Sox and Yankees at $146,609,000. The Phillies were second in the NL at $141,928,379, the Mets third at $134,422,942, and the World Series champion Giants a distant fourth in the National League at $98,641,333.
Clearly, among NL teams, the Giants and Phillies got their money's worth and the Cubs and Mets did not. Overall in MLB, the eight playoff teams ranked 1st (Yankees), 4th (Phillies), 9th (Giants), 10th (Twins), 15th (Braves), 19th (Rays), 20th (Reds) and 26th (Rangers) in payroll.
Thus it's not simply spending money, it's spending it wisely, that can make you a winner. We've been over and over and over the Cubs' backloaded deals that are coming back to bite them now -- that isn't the purpose of this post, so let's not belabor that issue, please. It's also not a bitch session about what player is or isn't worth what they're getting. The salaries are what they are, unless Jim Hendry can creatively move some of them.
The purpose is to show how the Cubs can creatively spend $135 million -- let's assume for now that's the number, although I am simply speculating with no inside info -- given the fact they already have more than $102 million committed to nine players for 2011. Follow me past the jump for the numbers.
While the rumor mill has been heavy with chatter about the Cubs possibly signing free agent first baseman Adam Dunn, that doesn't seem likely to me. We know that Tom Ricketts is giving Jim Hendry a little less payroll money for 2011 than he had in 2010; fitting a hitter like Dunn into that payroll likely wouldn't work. The Cubs are already committed to over $100 million in payroll from existing contracts -- unless they can move some bad deals like Kosuke Fukudome's or Carlos Silva's, or even get someone to take parts of those deals -- and they're likely to be on the hook for fairly large salary increases for arb-eligible players like Geovany Soto, Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall.
Dunn would hit well in Wrigley Field. We all know that. We've also discussed his defensive shortcomings at length. He's probably looking for a multi-year deal that's too long for what the Cubs need at this point in time (and do we really need another backloaded deal?).
So, what about the "other" first base Adam -- Adam LaRoche? Three days ago, the Diamondbacks declined their club option on LaRoche, making him a free agent. He made $7.5 million last year while hitting .261/.320/.468. The .788 OPS was the lowest since his second full season (2005, with the Braves), but he hit 25 HR for the third straight year and drove in 100 runs for the first time in his career. He strikes out a lot -- not quite as much as Dunn -- and usually draws a decent number of walks. That walk total was also down in 2010, accounting for a fair portion of the OPS drop.
LaRoche is sort of Dunn-lite. The two are almost exactly the same age -- LaRoche was born on November 6, 1979; Dunn on November 9, 1979. They both generally stay healthy; LaRoche has played 140+ games five of the last six years. He's not a great defensive first baseman -- he made 11 errors last year -- but he's a better first baseman than Adam Dunn is.
This MLBTR post suggests LaRoche could possibly be had on a one-year deal for about $6 million. If the Cubs are serious about getting into the Adrian Gonzalez sweepstakes -- and this MLBTR post suggests the Padres are willing to deal him -- then LaRoche might be a good one-year stopgap, far better than Nick Johnson, who is always, always, always injured.
Have at it.
For the last seven years, since the 2003 Cubs came within five outs of the... well, you know... the Cubs have simply assumed that they could just swing open the gates for each home game and every seat would be filled. Not only that, but a huge, 100,000+ name waiting list for season tickets has given them the presumption that if the ballpark started to empty out -- as it has begun to -- that people would be lined up to take the place of those who no longer want to go, whatever their reasons for not buying tickets.
This post will take a look at current attendance trends and why the Cubs can no longer operate under that assumption -- or they will wind up losing tens of millions of dollars.
The Cubs have sold over three million tickets (and I say "tickets sold" because that is far different from how many are actually in the park) every year since 2004. In fact, they would have done so in 2003 had the final Friday game of the season not been rained out; because there were only two days left they had to play a straight doubleheader the next day and had only 80 home dates. The 2003 Cubs finished 37,370 short of three million, and only 27 dates that year drew less than 37,370, almost all of them in April and May.
Using that 37,370 figure as a benchmark -- because early-season games have occasionally not sold out due to cold weather, even in good years -- the following box will clearly illustrate the Cubs' problem. These are the number of crowds lower than 37,370 each season since 2003:
2004: 1 2005: 1 2006: 14 2007: 6 2008: 0 2009: 9 2010: 27
Ryne Sandberg is my choice. Who's yours?
We are at a unique place in modern Cubs history. For the first time since the College of Coaches era ended with Leo Durocher's emphatic statement on his hiring on October 25, 1965, "I'm the manager. I'm not a head coach, I'm the manager.", the Cubs are facing a situation where they'll have a managerial opening not created by a firing (or non-renewal of a contract, as in the case of Dusty Baker, which essentially was a firing) or some similar negative departure.
The list isn't pretty:
Leo Durocher, fired July 25, 1972. Durocher claimed he "stepped aside", but that was just to allow him to save face because P.K. Wrigley liked him.
Whitey Lockman, fired July 21, 1974. Again, Wrigley let him "step down", but with a 41-52 record at the time (hmmm... familiar?), it was clearly a firing.
Jim Marshall, fired November 23, 1976. Marshall did an OK job with some really untalented Cubs teams and was only 45 at the time of his firing. He managed the A's to a 54-108 record in 1979 and was never heard from again. (Well, in a baseball sense, anyway.)
Herman Franks, quit on September 24, 1979 with seven games left in the season. He was scheduled to announce his retirement -- and did, in fact, never manage again -- but instead quit and blasted many of his players. Joe Amalfitano finished the season.
Preston Gomez, fired July 25, 1980. Baseball-reference.com says the Cubs' record was 39-52 at the time of his firing, but it also says Gomez's record was 38-52, and newspaper accounts of the firing also say the record was 38-52. The discrepancy comes from a game suspended on May 28, 1980 that was finished on August 8, when Amalfitano again was the manager. The Cubs won that game with a walkoff grand slam, one of the few highlights of that 98-loss year. That win is credited to Amalfitano.
Lee Elia, fired August 22, 1983. Elia was on the hot seat for a number of reasons, including his legendary early-season profane tirade, but when he admitted he had "never heard of" Braves rookie (and future Cubs batting coach) Gerald Perry after he torched the Cubs in a weekend series, Dallas Green fired him. Charlie Fox finished the year on an interim basis.
Jim Frey, fired June 12, 1986. This firing came less than two years after leading the Cubs to their first postseason berth in 39 years. Coach Don Zimmer was also fired. John Vukovich managed two games and Gene Michael finished the season.
Gene Michael, resigned September 7, 1987. Michael, who seemed to pine for being with the Yankees the entire time he was a Cubs coach and manager, apparently told the media he was going to quit before he told Green. Green himself was forced out at the end of the year, a huge mistake. Frank Lucchesi finished the season.
Don Zimmer, fired May 21, 1991. Zimmer, brought back as manager in 1988 only a year and a half after being dismissed as 3B coach, became the first Cubs manager to last more than three seasons since Durocher. He had given management an "ultimatum" to decide on his future by July 1. They did; they fired him. Coach Joe Altobelli managed one game and then the season was finished by Jim Essian, who was viewed at the time as a hot managerial prospect, but...
Jim Essian, fired October 18, 1991. Essian never managed, or even coached, in the major leagues again.
Jim Lefebvre, fired October 6, 1993. This firing came after Lefebvre led the Cubs to an 84-78 season. It was the first time they had finished over .500 in a non-playoff year since 1972.
Tom Trebelhorn, fired October 17, 1994. Trebelhorn had been successful in Milwaukee, but was canned after a horrid season in which the Cubs lost their first 12 home games and Trebelhorn held an impromptu meeting with fans outside the firehouse on Waveland.
Jim Riggleman, fired October 4, 1999. Riggleman was the first Cubs manager to manage five full seasons since Durocher, but was dumped after a season in which the Cubs started 32-23, only to finish 35-74 amid accusations that Riggleman's players quit on him.
Don Baylor, fired July 5, 2002. This dismissal came with a year and half left on a four-year contract. Jim Hendry was named general manager the same day. Baylor had given Cubs fans some hope with a contending season in 2001, but his managing style and a 34-49 record the next year led to his axing.
Dusty Baker, contract not renewed at the end of the 2006 season. Baker, Marshall and Riggleman are the only former Cubs managers since Durocher to get another non-interim managing job.
As I said, not a pretty list, but Lou Piniella is going out on his own terms, even if not in a season he'd like to remember. He won't manage again, regardless of what rumors you may hear; he's supposed to be getting a deal to be a Yankees "consultant", which may lead to him making an appearance at spring training for them and otherwise just enjoying his retirement.
I have made it clear that my preference for the next Cubs manager is Ryne Sandberg. Sandberg applied for the job when Baker was fired and was told he'd need to get experience. And while you might not expect a Hall of Fame player to do this, he went to the lowest rung of the minor leagues, rode the buses, learned his craft and has been praised by his players and by Cubs management. He has done everything he has been asked to do and in my opinion, has earned the shot -- unless Joe Girardi suddenly drops into the Cubs' laps. It's my understanding that unless the Yankees collapse this year and don't make the playoffs, or have a 2004-style meltdown in the postseason, Girardi will be offered a new deal to stay in New York, and he'll accept it.
With that, I'm going to post, after the jump, the pluses and minuses as I see them for thirteen men (call 'em the "lucky 13" if you like) whose names have been mentioned as candidates to replace Lou, either in other media, here, or both. There may be other names, but these seem to be the not-so-short "short list". I'll try to be as objective as I can listing these, even though I have a preferred candidate.
Finally, about Jim Hendry being the one to make this choice: I've never been one of the torches and pitchforks crowd wanting him fired. Is he the best GM in the game? No. Is he the worst? Far from it. I also don't see anyone suggesting a replacement who is both a) better and b) available. That being the case, I think it's fine for Hendry to get a chance to clean up this mess. He can start by hiring Ryne Sandberg.
Jim Hendry has publicly stated that he wants to add another veteran arm to the bullpen (this despite the fact that the Cubs already have some good young arms in Esmailin Caridad and Justin Berg, among others). There have been several rumors flying the last few days about who this pitcher might be, so let's examine three of them.
As it appears today, the Cubs have 12 of their likely 13 position player slots accounted for. The eight starters will be: Geovany Soto, Derrek Lee, Jeff Baker, Ryan Theriot, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd and Kosuke Fukudome.
On the bench you'll find Koyie Hill, Mike Fontenot, Andres Blanco, Sam Fuld, and...
... well, so far that last spot is undetermined. The Cubs recently signed ex-Mariner minor leaguer Bryan LaHair to a minor league deal, but he's basically Micah Hoffpauir redux, and that didn't work out so well last year.
So who should the Cubs look at for that final bench spot? The photo above gives you one clue as to who this post is about; follow me past the jump for more on him, and two other choices.
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